The San Juan Climate Initiative:
A Stakeholder-Scientist Partnership for
Understanding and Adapting to Place-Based
Climate Change
MTNCLIM 2008
Silverton, Colorado
Koren Nydick
Resource
Planning & Use:
Climate Change:
Forest Plans
Changes in temperature,
precipitation, drought severity
Land use codes and development
Effects on…
Water management and
infrastructure; flood management
Snowmelt and streamflow
Fisheries management
Endangered species protection
Reservoir re-licensing
Stormwater permits
Watershed restoration
Abandoned mine lands clean up
Air quality permitting
Recreation regulations
Forest health and wildfires
Infectious disease
Distribution of species
Water quality
Crop production
Skier days
Tourism
The San Juan Climate Initiative
Starting a grassroots effort without a big (rich) gorilla
Understanding the Context - San Juan / 4 Corners Region
*Environmental and socio-economic challenges
Convening the Process - The SJ Climate Initiative
*Gathering Stakeholder Direction
Getting Started
*Building Partnerships & Learning from Others
*Start with outreach
*Fund targeted research and monitoring as resources
allow
The San Juan/4 Corners Region
• Rapid climate warming and
hydrological change
• Droughts expected to become
more common
•Topographic and climate extremes
(mountains next to desert)
• Broad diversity of ecosystems
• Biogeographical boundaries
• Rapid population growth, land
development, and economic change
• Vulnerable population
• Lack of resources – no large
research centers, think-tanks, etc.
Off the map of federal efforts.
• Really interesting science
Many Regional Issues
• Climate change
• Water rights and availability
• Social and economic change
• Air & water pollution
• Forest health/wildfire
• Energy development
• Sustainable/affordable housing
• Connections to federal land management
Socioeconomic diversity
Large disparity in regional household
income (compare to Colorado
Average of $50,105)
Large concentration of Native
American and rural, low income
population
Fast Paced Development
Oil and Gas Wells
Environment
is important to
people here!
The Social and Economic Effects of Second Homes In Southwest Colorado, Phase 2 – Homeowners
Survey. Region 9 Economic Development District of Southwest Colorado Inc. July 10, 2006.
Silverton, CO
Durango, CO
Aztec, NM
Flora Vista, NM
Farmington, NM
Coal-Fired Power Plants
8-hour Ozone --- 3-year Avg. of 4th Max.
Four Corners Area
0.090
0.080
ppm
Standard
0.070
0.060
0.050
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0.040
Year
Ute-Ignacio, CO
Mesa Verde NP
Shiprock Sub, NM
Ute-Red Mesa, CO
USFS-Shamrock
Navajo Lake, NM
Ute-Hw y. 550, CO
Bloomfield, NM
Canyonlands NP
New ozone standard: 3-year avg. of 4th max. 8-hour values not to exceed 0.075 ppm
Earlier onset of spring snowmelt already
observed in West, but not yet in San Juans (?)
CT =
center of
stream
flow mass
Stewart et al. 2004. Climatic Change.
But a new analysis that clusters stations in groups shows earlier
streamflow in Colorado with greatest changes in San Juans
David Clow, USGS, unpublished study
Desert Dust
Speeds
Snowmelt
May 24, 2006
Photos by Center for Snow &
Avalanche Studies
June 4, 2006
1800
TN-Chl a
2
R = 0.16
1600
Chl a (ug/cm2)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1400
Chl a (mg/m2)
Chl a (ug/cm2)
High Algal Biomass in the Lower Animas River –
Related to Lowered River Discharge?
0
1200
1000
5
10
800
15
20
25
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
30
TP-Chla
R2 = 0.3155
0.0
TN (mg/L)
0.1
0.2
TP (mg/L)
0.3
0.4
600
400
200
0
7
8
11
14
16
19 21 26 30 35 37 39
42
47
50 53 59 62 65
71 74
79
83
85
90 93 97
Discharge (L/s)
19000
17000
Discharge in Lower Animas River
15000
13000
11000
9000
7000
5000
7
8
11 14
16 19
21 26 30 35 37 39 42 47 50 53 59 62 65 71 74 79 83 85 90 93 97
Sudden Aspen Decline in the San Juan
Mountains
Turkey Knolls area on
Dolores RD – San Juan NF
Mortality 2002 = 9%
Mortality 2006 = 60%
¾ Roots dead in affected
areas
Possible Causes
Aspens stands reaching maturity with little
regeneration?
Photo from Cortez
Journal
Warming? Drought? Insects? Disease?
Interactions?
Convening the Process –
The SJ Climate Initiative
Climate Variability & Change in the San Juan
Mountains: A Stakeholder – Scientist Dialogue
INTRODUCTION TO WORKSHOP & OVERVIEW
Dr. Koren Nydick
Mountain Studies Institute
October 2006
The San Juan Climate Initiative
Stakeholder – Scientist Dialogue
Scientific Researchers
Stakeholders
Working Together on Solution-Driven
Science, Outreach, and Adaptive
Management
Stakeholder Input
• What are the major impacts of climate in
the San Juan Mountain region on your
sector?
• What can we do to reduce our vulnerability
to climate variability & climate change?
• What new tools or knowledge would be
helpful to adapt to climate variability &
climate change?
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Water, Land & Community
Climate Changes
Temperature
Agriculture & Ranching
Forests, Timber & Fire
Precipitation
Biodiversity & Wildlife
Extreme Events
Recreation & Tourism
Energy
General Findings
• Focus science on solution-driven not problem-delivered
• Employ latest research and observations in decision process.
• Consolidate and share data.
• Start small and build capacity and coordination
• Motivate political will. Seek joint government funding of activities. Local
government can help if state and federal lag behind.
• Stakeholders need to collaborate frequently. Need education and coordination.
• Trust takes time. Establish conflict resolution to get everyone at the table.
• Education tools to translate science – What does a 1 deg F change means to
people, communities and resources. Use visualizations coupled with models to
describe how climate change will “look like”.
• Develop eco-footprint analysis and vulnerability assessment for use in decisionmaking.
• Capitalize on benefits and adaptively manage the challenges.
Recreation & Tourism
Major Impacts of climate change:
Positive:
a. Climate change could create business opportunities - Scenic beauty is
essential
tool- must protect visual quality.
b. Distinct Seasons- recreation currently utilizes 2 seasons, could market and
operate in all 4.
c. Snow- we will still have it- will it be as long? As much? Longer than others?
d. “We are the first stop on the way out of hell” – Texas, Arizona, New Mexico
will be hot as hell, we won’t. Sell the fact that we’re less affected and work to
keep it that way.
Negative:
a. Season-specific will be at risk – rafting, if you loose a season or length of
season
is cutback substantially.
b. May need a “whole portfolio” of recreation offerings to reduce risk to one
type of
activity decline. Small specialized businesses will suffer if the
season they depend on is negatively impacted.
Recreation & Tourism
What can we do now?
a. We should behave well and “market” that we are doing the right thing.
- City of Aspen is leading the charge in advertising the green
thing
- Feels good to go to Aspen… because they “are doing the
right thing.”
- Make a connection to our guest so that “being a role model”
is what
they are thinking about at home.
b. Act regionally to offer a diverse set of options and sell the region.
- Sell as a regional destination- work for all of us as a
common theme.
c. Adjust the tourism “message” to coincide with changing dates and
seasons.
When will climate change result in a real, noticeable change
in the
timing of vacations?
d. Possible solutions in businesses, less pavement, appropriate
landscaping, resort communities should be visible models for new
behavior.
e. Guests don’t always see the big picture- they see recycling but not
efficient
snow-making. Need to advertise all green practices.
f Ecoto rism and e periential learning g ests sta longer and spend more
Recreation & Tourism
Tools & Knowledge
a. Clear, concise facts that help us tell the story.
b. What is the impact of positive behavior? What is the impact of green
technology?
c. How does it affect the bottom line, the climate and our guests’
experience?
d. What is the bottom line- what do we really need to know? And what can
we do about it? Science must help us to understand what actions really
matter.
e. Is it possible to do selective thinning to increase the snow yield and
water
storage at ski areas?
f. How do we decrease dust on snow and slow runoff? How do we increase
storage options?
g. We have to reach out so our isolation and remoteness doesn’t keep us
out of
the mainstream of ideas and solutions.
Energy
1) Impacts- how will this affect our sector?
a. Changes in energy peak demands- from winter draw (heating) to summer
draw (air conditioning). Net result will be affected by population growth
in the area.
b. Local food and fuel production in response to transportation crops.
c. Less hydro-electric capacity? Less water storage?
- Navajo reservoir will have less water to produce power & be reliable
d. Wind and Solar: Higher temperatures-better wind regime for wind power?
- Increased aridity will increase our solar index (ability to use solar for
energy). Greater number of solar energy days (cloud-free)?
e. Increased national pressure on local coal, gas, and energy resources.
Effects on air, soil and water. Warmer temperatures – more ozone
3) New Tools & Knowledge:
a. More climate models:
How long will our growing season be in 2-4 decades?
- How will it change our solar and wind potential for energy
sources?
b. How will changing temperatures affect energy use and seasonal
demand?
c. What reasonable building codes can support conservation & energy
Agriculture & Ranching
Challenges:
Insects, disease & weeds; loss of pollinators; reduced water availability.
Actions:
• Water supply, storage & conservation – efficiency improvements to adapt to
earlier and less water.
• Risk and vulnerability reduction - increasing adaptability, encouraging new
markets, more resilient or drought adapted crops, new technology, better prediction
of weather.
• Mimic ecosystem processes, diversity of crops, no-till, crop rotation
• Farmer education programs, technical and financial assistance
Questions:
• How much water will be available with a warmer climate, dust on snow speeding
snowmelt, and increased human populations?
• What varieties of crops will be most resilient and profitable?
• How long will the growing season be?
Getting Started
*Building Partnerships & Learning from Others
*Start with outreach
*Fund targeted research and monitoring as
resources allow
The San Juan Collaboratory: A New Initiative to
Understand Regional Social, Economic and
Environmental Change
San Juan Public
Lands Center
Purpose of San Juan Collaboratory
Research:
ƒTo facilitate interdisciplinary, solution-driven research in the San Juan and
Four Corners Region
Education:
ƒTo develop collaborative educational links develop new training programs
(short courses, distance education) aimed at an underserved part of the state
of Colorado.
ƒTo create a pipeline of students from under-represented and low income
students to graduate school.
Outreach:
To facilitate for collaborative researcher-stakeholder exchange of information.
Some initial goals of the SJC related to climate change –
Down-scaling of climate projections and impacts on fire and ozone.
Development of adaptation planning tools for natural resource managers
Climate Change Adaptation Workshop
for Natural Resource Management
Thursday, June 12, 2008
12:30 – 5 pm
Town Hall
Silverton, Colorado
Brought to you by CIRMOUNT,
MSI, and the San Juan Public
Lands Center (USFS/BLM)
Synthesize climate research for our region and translate to non-scientists
for understanding and development of adaptive management tools
Presentations, webpage, and booklet
- MSI and partners
Climate change, energy, and food systems project
- Southwest Marketing Network
Climate Change Adaptations for Land Management
- MSI, CIRMOUNT, San Juan Public Lands (USFS/BLM)
Scientific monitoring and studies
Analysis of 100 years of climate records for SJs
-Imtiaz Rangwala, Rutgers University, MSI mini-grant
Small mammal monitoring along elevational gradient
-Christy McCain, CU Boulder, MSI mini-grant
Pika Project: surveys, long-term monitoring & modeling
-Liesel Peterson, CU Boulder, MSI mini-grant
“GLORIA” alpine vegetation monitoring in the San Juan Mtns
- Mountain Studies Institute (MTNCLIM poster session)
Mountain system climate monitoring on Red Mtn Pass
- Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies
Collaborators Welcome!
www.mountainstudies.org
Climate Change,
Energy, & Food
Systems Project:
Tools & Understanding to Help Farmers, Ranchers, and
Community Food System Partners Adapt Wisely to Climate
Change & Energy Impacts
www.swmarketingnetwork.org
Jim Dyer, Project Director
Climate Change, Energy, & Food Systems
Project: Regional Resources to Date
Mike Crimmins: Climate Science Extension Specialist, University of Arizona
Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension
Brad Udall: Director, CU-NOAA, Western Water Assessment, Boulder
Deborah Bathke: Assistant State Climatologist/Assistant Professor, Dept. of Plant
and Environmental Sciences, New Mexico State University
Bob Mailander: Governor’s Energy Office, Colorado
Fernando Martinez: New Mexico Energy, Minerals, & Natural Res. Dept.
Bruce Milne: University of New Mexico Sustainability Studies Program
Jim Dyer, Southwest Marketing
Network
Climate Change, Energy & Food
Systems:
Project Questions
1.
What impacts can we expect from rising energy
prices and when?
2.
How can we reduce food system energy use and
climate change impacts?
3.
What impacts can we expect from climate change
and when?
4.
How can we best adapt to climate change?
Jim Dyer, Southwest Marketing
Network
Potential Adaptations — an initial list
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•
•
•
•
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Energy efficiency
Irrigation efficiency
New crop varieties
Seasonal climate predictions
Alternative fuel use & production
Diversification — products and marketing
Increased soil water holding capacity, etc.
Organic and similar systems
Shifts in growing regions
Jim Dyer, Southwest Marketing
Network
For More Information
SWMN website with organizational background —
climate & energy resources coming soon:
www.swmarketingnetwork.org
Jim Dyer, Project Director
2727 CR 134, Hesperus, CO 81326
970-588-2292
jadyer@frontier.net
Jim Dyer, Southwest Marketing
Network