Roaring Fork River:
A Sub-Regional Initiative
John Katzenberger and
Michelle S. Masone
Aspen Global Change Institute
MtnClim 2008 Conference
Silverton, Colorado
June 10, 2008
Roadmap
• About the Roaring Fork
• The Roaring Fork Watershed Collaborative
• Integrating Climate Change
• Implications for a Watershed Plan
About the Roaring
Fork
Roaring
Fork
Watershed
Loc
ation: West Central
Colorado Land
Area: 1,451 square
miles
Land
Ownership: 75%
public
25%
private
Estimated
Population
(2005):
40,000
Highest
Point: Castle Peak
(14,265 ft)
Lowest
Point: Colorado
River (5,916 ft)
Miles
of
Stream:
1,962
Annual
Precipitation:
Aspen:
18.9 inches
Glenwood:
16.2 inches
Roaring Fork Conservanc
Multiple Jurisdictions
Clarke et al., 2008
D ft
Boom and Bust and
Boom
Some Trends
• Summer tourism trumps winter
• Big city gridlock
Trends
• Energy prospecting
and extraction is
growing rapidly
• In-stream users having
more say
Trends
• Traditional agriculture is
declining
• Oil shale may have a
comeback
Demand to the east and west
The Watershed Collaborative
Masone
The Roaring Fork Watershed Collaborative
mission is:
"To assist individuals, and local, state and
federal agencies and organizations in the
effective planning and management of
land and water uses within the Roaring
Fork Watershed."
Lead agencies: Rueidi Power and Water Authority & Roaring Fork Conservancy
Impacted Resources
Recreation/
Quality of Life
Utilities
Cultural Integrity
Cattle Creek Selenium: 85th percentile boxplots
8
SEDISUG (ug/L)
Environmental
Integrity
7
Overall 85th
P ercentile= 5.85
6
5
State Limit= 4.6
4
(Aquatic Life Chronic)
3
2
1
0
Low Flow
August-February
High Flow
March-July
Threats
Flow Alteration
Habitat Degradation
Cattle Creek Selenium: 85th percentile boxplots
8
Point & Nonpoint
Pollution
SEDISUG (ug/L)
7
Overall 85th
P ercentile= 5.85
6
5
State Limit= 4.6
4
(Aquatic Life Chronic)
3
2
1
0
Low Flow
August-February
High Flow
March-July
The Roaring Fork Watershed
Clarke, 2005
Previous Aspen Study
Developing the Climate Change
Chapter
CCSP SAP 4.3 2008
Figure 3.5.2. Percentage change in average annual runoff by 2041-2050 relative to 1900-1970
using the middle of the IPCC standard emissions scenarios (A1B). Shown is the North
American portion of the world map. (Source: Milly et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007b).
Conceptual Model
Figure 3.5.5 depicts the complex interactions between human and natural systems in the
Roaring Fork Watershed (Adapted from Poff et al., 2002).
Key direct effects
• Warmer temperatures
• More precipitation as rain, with less as
snow
• Decreased snow cover and snowpack
• Earlier snowmelt and runoff
Secondary Effects
• Earlier drying of soil moisture and riparian habitats;
• Increase in evapotranspiration and water demand;
• Elevational shifts in plant and animal communities and
reduction or loss of alpine tundra;
• Shifts in the geographic ranges, reproductive timing,
competitive interactions, and relative abundances of aquatic
species;
• Less insulating snow cover leading to greater risk of frost
exposure to roots and soil organisms.
Next Steps
• Keep engaged the stakeholder
constituency
• Develop core group of stakeholders, build
science and stakeholder team capacity
• Engage & learn from others doing similar
projects (e.g. Stewart Cohen, Okanagan
study
• Develop plan and implement
• Cycle back with lessons learned
"If there is magic on this planet, it is contained in water.”
Loren Eiseley
M. Harvey
Assessments: Imperfect Beasts
What you want to know is
G. Morgan used in Moser/AGCI
Vulnerabilities & Impacts
• Impacts (and vulnerability and adaptive capacity)
assessments are complementary bottom-up approaches
to the top-down scenario-driven analyses of the
consequences of climate change.
• Assessments are fraught with uncertainties stemming
from complex socio-economic, institutional, and
environmental factors.
• While numerous local (place-based) vulnerability
assessments have been conducted, a broader synthesis
is not yet available.
Moser/AGCI 2006
•
Moving Forward with
Uncertainty
“…in the absence of reliable climate change information, much can
be learned about potential climate change impacts by honing in on
the vulnerability of individuals, communities, economic sectors, and
ecosystems.
•
Examining the exposure and sensitivity to climate, as well as the
ability to cope and adapt to potential changes, provides essential
insights into the determinants of vulnerability, and into the expected
severity of impacts from climate disruption.”
Moser/AGCI 2006
Annie Bisset