Panel Discussion - Regional Climate
Downscaling: When, How, How
much, What assumptions?
James Byrne, Ryan MacDonald,
Stefan Kienzle
University of Lethbridge
Survey??
Canadians Investigate Death
of Ducks at Oil-Sands
What is
wrong
with the
weather?
Developing detailed hydro-climate
surfaces for the upper St. Mary
watershed, Montana-Alberta
Ryan MacDonald1, James Byrne1,
Stefan Kienzle1 and Danny Blair2
University of Lethbridge
Problem Statement
„
Climate change impacts on regional
hydrology
‰
complex terrain = complex hydrometeorology
Oldman Watershed
Alberta
Microclimate model - 1 ha pixels
Terrain classes
„ Slope
„ Aspect
„ Elevation
„ Land cover
Micromet model
„ Temps
„ Radiation
„ RH
„ Precip
„ Daily time
step
Hydrology
„ Snowpack
„ Soil water
„ ET, ETP,
Sublimation
„ Interception
Panel: Downscaling Questions
„
„
„
to discuss issues/problems associated with
downscaling to useful resolutions in mountain
settings,
options for improving our ability to address
these issues/problems in the future
what users should be looking for/demanding
in the downscaled products that they end up
using.
Downscaling techniques
„
„
„
Statistical
Dynamic - RCMs
Process based multivariate spatial analysis
‰
‰
‰
‰
„
PRISM
DAYMET
ANUSPLIN
SIMGRID
need detailed spatial grid observations to
calibrate/verify
Down Scaling - west North America?
„
Vertical Scale
‰
‰
‰
‰
sea level to 6000 m
Cordilleran climate varies by hectares
Ecological variation with elevation??
Teach someone about elevation controls on
ecology and climate???
Down Scaling - west North America?
„
Vertical Scale
‰
„
sea level to 6000 m
NEED = Sea level to 6000 m high res obs
Down Scaling west North America?
„
Horizontal Scale
‰
Hectare
„
„
„
‰
Microclimate
Hydrology
Ecology
Cordilleran scale
NEED = ha to
continental scale
Down Scaling - west North America?
„
Temporal scales
‰
Climate change - decades to centuries
Variability alters CC time scale
Drought - seasons to years . . decades?
Floods - minutes to months
Extreme storms - Seconds to days
‰
NEED = seconds to centuries
‰
‰
‰
‰
Precipitation is a problem!
„
Wentz et al 2007 - precip increasing rapidly in last
two decades >> GCM forecasts
Lambert et al 2008 - precip totals 2-3 times > than
GCM forecasts
Previdi and Liepert, 2008 - Wentz et al observed
changes due to aerosol declines and global
brightening
Roger Barry - precipitation elevation functions
„
NEED = more work on hydrologic intensification
„
„
„
Ecosystem Services
„
„
„
Hydrology/water yield
Glaciers as bellwethers?
Ecology
‰
‰
‰
‰
‰
‰
Land cover/change
Species
Forestry
Conservation
Invertebrates/vertebrates
Productivity
Downscaling
„
„
„
Downscaling is not verifiable
Need much better observational data
Limited observations
‰
‰
„
are not representative of alpine weather
downscaling not representative either
Need
‰
‰
Better observations
Monitoring Network
Monitoring Network - Players
„
„
„
„
Academics
Government
NGO research groups
Stakeholders
Monitoring Network
„
„
„
„
Need high res - four dimensions
Continental geographic scale
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Building a monitoring network?
„
„
„
„
„
Collaboration between all players
Academics - labor of love
NGOs - labor of love and self preservation
Stakeholders - self preservation
Government - provide longevity and capacity
‰
‰
Often labor of love
Often preservation
CIRMOUNT Role?
„
„
„
Facilitate negotiations to structure
Convince powers that be to fund $$$$$$
The Players will come!!