MTNCLIM 2008 Conference
Adapting to Climate Change on
US Federal Lands
Geoffrey M. Blate*
AAAS Science Policy Fellow, U.S. EPA1
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*Blate.Geoffrey@epa.gov
Office of Research and Development
National Center for Environmental Assessment, Global Change Research Program
1The
views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy of the U.S. EPA
June
June 10, 2008
Acknowledgments:
•Linda Joyce, Jeremy Littell, Connie Millar, Kathy
O’Hallaran, Dave Peterson, Ron Nielson, Steve
McNulty, Susi Moser
•Susan Julius, Jordan West
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Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP) Mission and Goals
Mission: Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the
Earth’s global environment through research, observations,
decision support, and communication
Five Integrated Goals:
• Goal 1: Improve knowledge of past and present climate
• Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about
climate changes
• Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in climate projections
• Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of human
systems, natural and managed ecosystems
• Goal 5: Explore the uses and limits of knowledge to manage
risks and opportunities related to climate change
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CCSP Synthesis & Assessment
Products (SAPs)
•Of the 21 SAPs, 3 focus on ecosystems:
CCSP Goal 4 for SAPs
“Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed
ecosystems to climate and related global changes”
Product
Title
Lead
SAP 4.2
Thresholds of change in ecosystems
USGS
SAP 4.3
The effects of climate change on agriculture,
biodiversity, land, and water resources
USDA
SAP 4.4
Preliminary review of adaptation options for climatesensitive ecosystems and resources
EPA
•SAP 4.4 is one of 6 SAPs that respond to the 1990 Global
Change Research Act
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Goal of SAP 4.4
Provide useful information on the state of knowledge
regarding adaptation options for key, representative
ecosystems and resources that may be sensitive to
climate variability and change.
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Audience
• Resource and ecosystem managers at federal, state
and local levels
• Tribes, non-governmental organizations and others
involved in protected area management decisions
• Scientists, engineers and technical specialists
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Approach
Identify and assess:
• Climate sensitive management goals for
National Forests
National Parks
National Wildlife Refuges
Wild and Scenic Rivers
National Estuaries
Marine Protected Areas
• Implications of climate change for achieving management goals
• Adaptation approaches that reduce the risk of negative impacts
on management goals
• Characteristics of human and ecological systems that enhance or
inhibit implementation
Outcome: Enhance adaptive capacity of resource management
community to respond to future changes in climate
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Overall Findings and Conclusions
Adaptation options for managing for resilience
General Approaches
Examples
•Protect key ecosystem features
Facilitate dispersal
•Reduce anthropogenic stressors
Prevent invasives; reduce pollution
•Representation
Increase genetic / habitat diversity
•Replication
Protect replicate populations
•Restoration
Use natives post-disturbance
•Refugia
ID / protect refugia for at-risk species
•Relocation
Assist species migrations
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US Forest Service Goals (2007-2012
Strategic Plan) – Sensitive to Climate
Change
•Restore, sustain, and enhance forests and grasslands
•Provide and sustain benefits to the American people
•Conserve open space
•Enhance outdoor recreation opportunities
•Maintain basic management capabilities
•Engage urban America with FS programs
•Provide science-based applications and tools for
sustainable resources management
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Potential Climate Change Impacts on
Ecosystem Attributes Critical to
Management Goals
Ecosystem Attributes
Climate Change Impacts
•Biodiversity & Ecosystem services
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o
Fire & insect tolerance
•Altered fire regimes & vegetation
changes
o
Tolerance to invasives
•Changes in species dominance
o
Anadromous fish habitat
•Increased water temperature
o
Water quality
•Changes in runoff
o
“Natural”flow
•Altered stream flow
o
Snow pack
•Changes in snow pack amount
Current Major Stressors
•Altered Disturbances
•Habitat Fragmentation / Loss
•Invasive Plants, Animals, and
Pathogens
•Air and Water Pollution
•Legacy of Past Management
•Current Management
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Confronting Climate Change in
National Forests
•Options are available to start the adaptation process
•Additional information and research will be needed
•The USFS and other agencies will need to
o rethink traditional ways of managing
o come to terms with uncertainty
• Coordination / collaboration
will be needed
o
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23% of NF lands are in
congressionally
designated areas
Adaptation in Human Systems
Management or Planning
Assessments – Tools - Practices
No Advance Planning
for climate change
Two Decision-Making Paths
•Reactive approach
o No foresight
o Reacts without planning
o Too great uncertainty
•No active adaptation
o Evaluates impacts, risks low
o Near-term projects
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Adaptation in Human Systems
Management - Research Dialogue
Assessments – Tools - Practices
No Advance Planning
for climate change
React after Disturbance
or Extreme Events
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Adaptation in Human Systems
Management - Research Dialogue
Assessments – Tools - Practices
React after Disturbance
or Extreme Events
•When climate-induced
changes in disturbances
evident, and
•Identify (plan before
disturbance)
management to
implement after
disturbance
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Adaptation in Human Systems
Management - Research Dialogue
Assessments – Tools - Practices
No Advance Planning
for climate change
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React after Disturbance
or Extreme Events
Be Proactive:
Plan in Advance
Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change
•Identify management goals
•Evaluate vulnerabilities, assess risk
•Develop monitoring programs
•Develop approaches to management, given
uncertainty
•Develop portfolio of management strategies (‘tool box’)
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Short-Term Adaptation Options
Create / increase resistance to
impacts of climate change
1.
• Minimize current stressors (e.g., pollution, invasive
species, unbalanced trophic structures, fragmented
habitats)
• Protect from direct & indirect effects of climate, sea
level rise, insects, fire, disease, extreme events
2. Create resilience to ongoing changes
and climate-related disturbances
Reduce and minimize current stressors; build in surpluses
so that the system can return to a prior condition after
disturbance.
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Examples: Increase Buffers & TES Pop Sizes, Stock Seed
Banks, Intensive Reforestation to keep Habitat types
Longer-term Adaptation Options
3. Respond to Climate Influences
Develop Mix of Options for Management:
• Expand Genetic Diversity Guidelines –
seed zones, mixes
• Promote Connected Landscapes
• Establish ‘Neo-native”Plantations
• Experiment with Refugia
• Use Redundancy (multiple habitats
and ecosystems)
• Capitalize on New Opportunities
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Large-landscape
manipulations to restore
fire to the landscape
Longer-term Adaptation Options
4. Realign goals to current dynamics for systems far out of
the range of natural variability
•May be a useful “restoration”option
DWP diversions
began
Mono Lake, CA
And
Colorado River Allocations and Climate
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Priority Setting
Confront What Can and Cannot be Done
Sensitive & vulnerable vs resistant & resilient
Practice triage as appropriate
TRIAGE: “Sort & Tag”
Red
Urgent, treatable
Yellow Mid urgency; soon
to become red
Green Stable, low priority
Black
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Untreatable, lowest
priority: = no action
**********************
Re-assess frequently
Take-Home Messages
•Influence of changing climate must be considered in
conjunction with every resource management activity
planned and executed
•Accessible adaptation options include reducing the current
stressors such as insects, fire, air pollution
•Because climate will continue to change, promoting
resilience as a management strategy may only be effective
until thresholds of resilience are overcome
•Most importantly, the onset and continuance of climate
change over the next century requires NF managers to think
differently about ecosystems.
o Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a
cultural and intellectual challenge as it is an ecological one.
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