MTNCLIM 2005
A Science Conference on Mountain Climates & Effects on Ecosystems
Sponsored by:
Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains
(CIRMOUNT)
March 1 - 4, 2005
Chico Hot Springs
Pray, Montana
http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim/
Conference Purpose
MTNCLIM aims to advance the sciences related to climate and its interaction with physical, ecological, and social
systems of western North American mountains. Within this arena, MTNCLIM goals are to:
• Provide a biennial forum for presenting and encouraging current, interdisciplinary research through invited and
contributed oral and poster sessions.
• Promote active integration of science into resource-management application through focused sessions, panels,
and ongoing problem-oriented working groups.
• Advance other goals of CIRMOUNT through ad hoc committees, networking opportunities, co-hosting
meetings, and targeted fund-raising efforts.
A post-conference workshop entitled Climate Variability and Change: An Overview of our Current Understanding
with Implications for Park & Natural Areas Management, is scheduled. The workshop presents an opportunity for
resource managers to learn about implications of climate variability for resource management, conservation, and
restoration.
Conference Sponsors
MTNCLIM is sponsored by the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT),
with funding and support from the following agencies and institutions:
Montana State University, Big Sky Institute
NOAA, Office of Global Programs, Climate Diagnostics Center, and Paleoclimatology Branch
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Sierra Nevada Research
Center and Pacific Northwest Research Station, Fire and Environmental Research Applications
University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
USGS Water Resources, Geological and Biological Resources Divisions
Mountain Research Initiative
Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center
University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
University of California, White Mountain Research Station
California Bay-Delta Authority
Steering Committee
Constance I. Millar, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station (co-chair)
Lisa J. Graumlich, Montana State University, Big Sky Institute (co-chair)
Henry F. Diaz, NOAA, Climate Diagnostics Center (co-chair)
Daniel R. Cayan, University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Michael D. Dettinger, USGS Water Resources Division
Daniel B. Fagre, USGS Biological Resources Division
Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative
Malcolm K. Hughes, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
David L. Peterson, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station
Frank L. Powell, University of California, White Mountain Research Station
Kelly T. Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center
Nathan L. Stephenson, USGS Biological Resources Division, Three Rivers
Thomas W. Swetnam, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
Connie Woodhouse, NOAA, Paleoclimatology Branch
MTNCLIM 2005
http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim/
A Science Conference on Mountain Climates & Effects on Ecosystems
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................. ii
PROGRAM ...................................................................................................... v
SPEAKER ABSTRACTS.................................................................................. 1
INVITED TALKS ...................................................................................... 2
CONTRIBUTED TALKS ............................................................................... 6
POSTER ABSTRACTS.................................................................................. 19
WORKING GROUP SESSIONS................................................................... 41
CONFERENCE PARTICIPANT LIST ........................................................... 51
March 1 - 4, 2005
Chico Hot Springs
Pray, Montana
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Mapping New Terrain: Climate Change and America’s West
Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains
(CIRMOUNT)
Climate change portends far-reaching transformations across America’s West, an expanse
dominated by immense mountain ranges. From these peaks come the region’s life blood–water
that courses through its streams and runs out its faucets, power that fuels its industries and
lights its cities, and natural resources that feed its economy and provide many of its jobs. Vast
ranchlands, forested suburban tracts, densely populated urban areas of the West–many afford
spectacular views of the mountains beyond. And to these mountains, though seemingly distant,
the communities of the West are intricately tied.
Why should we be concerned about how climate change is affecting the mountains? Despite their
imposing grandeur and apparent fortitude, the mountains contain highly sensitive environments
hosting delicately balanced physical and natural systems. A warming of only a few degrees has
major implications for alpine regions–for high mountain glaciers, for snowpacks, and for
snowmelt. Downhill, this affects water supply, energy availability, and recreational opportunities.
Climate change is predicted to significantly alter the alpine landscape. Distinct ecological
communities occur along the incline, encountered as successive layers on a hike from the
foothills to the peaks. Each of these alpine ecosystems has specific requirements for temperature
and precipitation. As global warming continues, complex changes in alpine plant and animal
communities are likely to occur, increasing vulnerability of species to local extinctions.
Scientific studies and observations to date reveal initial alarming trends related to climate change
in combination with patterns of economic development. Experts gathered at the Mountain
Climate Sciences Symposium (MCSS), held in Tahoe, CA, in May of 2004, noted the following as
occurring in many areas throughout the West:
− Water Supply Higher temperatures are impacting water supplies by shrinking glaciers,
diminishing snowpacks, and accelerating snowmelt. Meanwhile, continued development
is increasing demand for water. Taken together, these trends increase the chances of
regional water shortages during drought years.
− Massive Forest Dieback Recent severe drought increased susceptibility of trees to bark
beetles; massive, quickly reproducing infestations resulted in widespread, rapid forest
dieback.
− Development of Rural Lands Accelerating suburban development on city fringes and
exurbandevelopment (between 6 and 25 homes per square kilometer and rapidly
increasing road densities) of private rural lands are increasing scarcity of wildlands and
associated resources; increasing wildfire is placing homes in these developments at risk.
Climate changes are accentuating problems associated with air quality.
ii
Executive Summary
− Wildfire Enormous, destructive crown fires are consuming tinderbox forests, which
resulted from drought, extensive tree mortality, and long-term fire suppression.
− Biodiversity and Wildlife Development of sparsely settled areas, massive forest dieback,
extensive high-severity crown fires, and changes in high-altitude ecosystems are altering
biodiversity and wildlife habitat.
However, substantially more information is needed to fully draw the picture. Despite the
importance of the mountains as key providers of essential resources, scientists have conducted
few systematic large-scale studies to date. Research has been telling, but fragmentary; weather
and hydrology stations exist, but are few and far between. Scientists cannot yet respond
meaningfully to essential questions managers are asking about climate change, such as how
water flows will be affected, what species may be at risk, and whether increased wildfire looms
on the horizon.
The MCSS set the stage for unprecedented cooperation among researchers, policy makers, and
resource managers to identify the most important questions about how climate change will affect
the West. Together, scientists and managers are specifying the first installations of monitoring
equipment and suggesting major avenues of investigation. And, importantly, the group is
focusing on how to integrate the studies across both geographic regions and academic fields.
As an outcome of the meeting, a consortium of experts whose work relates to climate change in
mountainous regions was established. Priority goals set by the Consortium for Integrated Climate
Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) fall under action goal categories of the national
Climate Change Science Program and include the following:
Observation
Implement coordinated high-elevation climate and ecosystem monitoring
throughout the western mountains of North America. Install a network of highaltitude meteorological and hydrological stations and conduct long-term ecosystem
observations. Where possible use standardized instruments and protocols to optimize
comparisons. Gather both baseline and ongoing data for comparisons over time.
Research
Promote and facilitate climate research related to mountainous regions of the
West. Specifically, improve knowledge of both the Earth’s past and present climate in
the western region, better characterize the natural variability, and increase
understanding of what causes the climate to vary. Increase knowledge of how western
ecosystems respond to climate change, including their sensitivity and adaptability.
Communication
Provide data and research results in effective formats for scientific,
managerial, and general audiences. Share findings through web sites, publications,
scientific meetings, focus groups, and education centers. Organize monitoring data and
research results in easily accessible Internet-based databanks. Integrate western climate
change information into current environmental education efforts.
iii
Executive Summary
Decision Support
Provide sound climate-related science for effective land management in
western North America. For long-term planning, develop accurate projections related
to western climate change and its effects on natural systems and resources. Assist policy
makers and land-use professionals in managing risks and opportunities related to climate
variability and change.
CIRMOUNT plans a second meeting in March of 2005, in Pray, Montana, near Yellowstone
National Park. One facet of this first-in-a-series of biennial MTNCLIM conferences will be to
highlight relevant research and accelerate progress toward achieving the goals listed above. The
meeting will focus on mountain climate sciences and the effects of climate variability on
ecosystems, natural resources, and conservation in the mountains of western North America.
MTNCLIM 2005 will also emphasize related resource management, policy, and societal
implications. The Consortium invites interested scientists, managers, and policy makers to attend
the meeting and join its endeavors.
MTNCLIM 2005 Conference Website: http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim
For further information, contact:
Dr. Henry Diaz, NOAA, 303-497-6649, email: Henry.F.Diaz@noaa.gov
Dr. Constance Millar, USDA Forest Service, 510-559-6435, email: cmillar@fs.fed.us
CIRMOUNT’s steering committee involves scientists from:
NOAA
USDA Forest Service,
US Geological Survey
Montana State University
University of Arizona
University of California
Desert Research Institute
Mountain Research Initiative
iv
Executive Summary
Program
March 1 - TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL
6:00-8:00 pm
DINNER
8:00 pm
Evening Program:
8:00-8:30 pm
CIRMOUNT Update (CIRMOUNT Organizers)
8:30-9:00 pm
The MTNCLIM Year: Western Mountain Climate 2004-2005 in Perspective
Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV
9:00-10:00 pm
Keynote Presentation I: Yellowstone and the Two Cultures: Can Science and
the Humanities Share a National Park?
Paul Schullery, National Park Service, Yellowstone Center for Resources,
Yellowstone Pk, WY
March 2 - WEDNESDAY MORNING
8:30 am
Special Session I: Drought, Water Resources, and Ecosystems (Invited)
8:30-9:00 am
Modeling of Climate Variability and Change in the Western United States
Ruby Leung, Atmospheric Sciences Technical Group, PNW National Laboratories,
Richland, WA
9:00-9:30 am
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference of Mountain Climates
Steve Running, School of Forestry, University of Montana,
Missoula, MT
9:30-10:00 am
Paleo Perspectives on Extreme Climatic Variability in the Mountains of
Western North America
Stephen Gray, USGS, Desert Laboratory, Tucson, AZ
10:00-10:30 am
BREAK
10:30-11:00 am
Community and Evolutionary Consequences of Record Drought in the
Southwest
Tom Whitham, Dept Biological Sciences & Merriam Powell Center for Environmental
Research, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ
11:00-11:30 am
Climate, Mountain Ecosystems, and Disturbance across Scales: Challenges
for the Next Century
Don McKenzie, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Seattle, WA
11:30-12:00 pm
Science and the Future of Colorado River Policy and Compact Issues
Eric Kuhn, Colorado River Water Conservation District, Glenwood Springs, CO
12:00-1:30 pm
LUNCH BREAK
v
Program
March 2 - WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
1:30 pm
Special Session II: Climate Variability: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Restoration
(Invited)
1:30-2:00 pm
The Nature Conservancy's Perspective on Climate Change: The New
Challenge for Conservation Planners and Practitioners
Joe Kiesecker, Rocky Mountain Region, The Nature Conservancy, Lander, WY
2:00-2:30 pm
Examining the Recent Climate through the Lens of Ecology: Inferences from
Temporal Pattern Analysis
Paul Hessburg, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station,
Wenatchee, WA
2:30-3:00 pm
Adaptation to Climate Change Using a Multi-Barrier Watershed Approach
Hans Schreier, Institute for Resources and Environment, University of British
Columbia, Vancouver, BC
3:00-3:30 pm
BREAK
3:30 pm
Contributed Session I (Oral)
3:30-3:50 pm
Alaskan NPS Climate Monitoring Program
Pamela Sousanes, National Park Service, Denali National Park and Preserve,
Denali Park AK
3:50-4:10 pm
Update on Plans to Establish a National Phenology Network
Julio Betancourt, USGS, Desert Lab, Tucson, AZ; presented by Steve Gray, USGS,
Desert Lab Tucson, AZ
4:10-4:30 pm
Nineteenth Century Historical Climatic Data in Mountainous Regions of the
Western United States
Cary Mock, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC
4:30-4:50 pm
Environmental Changes in the Southern Canadian Rockies from Multiple-Tree
Ring Proxies
Emma Watson, Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada,
Environment Canada, Ontario, Canada
4:50-5:10 pm
Another Possible Explanation for the Acceleration of Tree-Ring Growth at
High Elevations in the Interior West Since the Late 19th Century
Malcolm Hughes, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, U. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
6:00-8:00 pm
DINNER (ON YOUR OWN)
8:00 pm
Poster Session with Mixer
vi
Program
March 3 - THURSDAY MORNING
8:30 am
Contributed Session II (Oral)
8:30-8:50 am
Surface Temperature Patterns and Lapse Rates: Implications for Water
Resources and Studies of Mountain Climate Change
Jessica Lundquist, CIRES-Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO
8:50-9:10 am
Climate-Driven Changes in Snowmelt Hydrology in the Mountainous West
Phil Mote, JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle,
WA
9:10-9:30 am
Non-Trivial Mountain Influence on Dry and Wet Conditions in Southern
California
Alex Hall, UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles,
CA
9:30-9:50 am
Warming Trends and Groundwater Recharge in Western Mountains, with
Implications for Groundwater and Surface-Water Resources
Sam Earman, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV
9:50-10:10 am
The “Teflon Basin” Myth Debunked: Most Snowmelt Runoff is “Old” Water and
Not “New” Water
Mark Williams, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
10:10-10:30 am
BREAK
10:30 am
Contributed Session III (Oral)
10:30-10:50 am
Groundwater-Mediated Holocene Hydrologic Variability in the Intermontane
Northern Rockies
Mark Shapley, Limnological Research Center, Department of Geology and
Geophysics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis MN
10:50-11:10 am
Simulated Response of Two Wyoming Glaciers to Projected Climate Change
Mitch Plummer, Idaho National Engineering & Environmental Laboratory, Idaho
Falls, ID
11:10-11:30am
Rock Glaciers and Periglacial Rock/Ice Features in the Central-Eastern Sierra
Nevada; Mapping, Classification, and a Proposal for Origins
Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Sierra Nevada
Research Center, Albany, CA
11:30-11:50 am
Comparing New and Old Scenarios of Future Climate Change Impacts on Fire,
Carbon and Vegetation Diversity in Western Mountains
Ron Nielson, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR
11:50-12:10 pm
Ecological Context of Climate Impacts on Fire: Wildland Fire Area Burned in
the Western U.S. 1916-2003
Jeremy Littell, Fire and Mountain Ecology Lab, University of Washington College of
Forest Resources, Seattle, WA
vii
Program
12:10-1:30 pm
LUNCH BREAK
1:30-3:00 pm
FREE TIME - INFORMAL GROUP MEETINGS
March 3 - THURSDAY AFTERNOON
3:00 pm
Contributed Session IV (Oral)
3:00-3:20 pm
Climate and Patterns of Tree Growth and Death in the Jemez Mountains, New
Mexico: 1991 to Present
Craig Allen, U.S. Geological Survey, Jemez Mountains Field Station, Los Alamos,
NM
3:20-3:40 pm
Risk Assessment for Establishment of an Introduced Pest in Face of a
Changing Climate
Jesse Logan, USDA Forest Service, Forest Sciences Laboratory, Logan, UT
3:40-4:00 pm
Willow Response to Changing Climate on Yellowstone’s Northern Winter
Range
Don Despain, USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT
4:00-4:20 pm
Ambient Ozone in California and Central European Mountains
Andrzej Bytnerowicz, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station,
Riverside, CA
4:20-4:40 pm
Adaptively Managing Protected Areas for Climate Change
Tony Prato, Center for Agricultural, Resource, and Environmental Systems, and
Division of Applied Social Sciences, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO
4:40-5:00 pm
Climate Research and Products Relevant to Mountainous Regions: Input from
Stakeholders
Melanie Lenart, University of Arizona Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, Tucson,
AZ
6:30-8:00 pm
DINNER
8:00-9:00 pm
Keynote Presentation II: Visual Observations of Mountain Microclimates
David C. Whiteman, Department of meteorology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City,
UT
March 4 - FRIDAY MORNING
8:30 am
Working Group Sessions (Leader Facilitated Discussions)
8:30-8:45 am
Introduction & Instructions for Working Groups
8:45-9:45 am
Working Group Discussions (with group leaders - continued on next page)
Hydrologic Observatories – Sierra Nevada Hydrologic Observatory (SNHO) &
Beyond
Roger Bales, University of California, Merced, Atwater, CA, and Mike Dettinger,
USGS, La Jolla, CA
viii
Program
North American GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine
Environments)
Connie Millar, USFS-PSW Res. Stn., Albany, CA & Dan Fagre, USGS, BRD, W
Glacier, MT
Paleoclimatology & Water Resources Mgmt
Connie Woodhouse, NOAA, Boulder, CO & Franco Biondi, Univ Nevada, Reno, NV
CIRMOUNT, Mountain Research Initiative (MRI), and International Relations
Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative, Berne, Switzerland
Installing Climate Observation Networks
Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV & Mark Losleben, Mountain
Research Station, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
9:45-10:00 am
BREAK
10:00-10:30 am
Working Group Summaries
10:30 am
Synthesis/Summary Session (Invited)
10:30-10:50 am
Peter Stine, USDA Forest Service, Sierra Nevada Research Center, Albany, CA
10:50-11:10 am
James McMahon, Dept. of Biology, Utah State University, Logan, UT
11:10-11:30 am
Bill Bowman, Dept of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado,
Boulder, CO
11:30-11:50 am
Dennis Machida, California Tahoe Conservancy, South Lake Tahoe, CA
11:50-12:10 pm
Glen MacDonald, Dept of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA
12:10-12:20 pm
MTNCLIM Wrap-Up & What’s Next CIRMOUNT? (CIRMOUNT Organizers)
12:30-1:30 pm
MTNCLIM 2005 CONFERENCE ADJOURNS
AFTERNOON
Post-Conference Workshop:
Climate Variability and Change: An Overview of our Current Understanding
With Implications for Park and Natural Areas Management
Stephen Gray, USGS, Desert Laboratory Tucson, AZ, Lisa Graumlich, Big Sky
Institute, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, and Tom Oliff, NPS, Yellowstone
National Park
ix
Program
Speaker Abstracts
alphabetical list by first author last name
1
Speaker Abstracts (Invited)
Invited Talks
PALEO PERSPECTIVES ON EXTREME CLIMATIC VARIABILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA
GRAY, STEPHEN T. (1); BETANCOURT, JULIO L. (1); WOODHOUSE, CONNIE A. (2); MEKO, DAVID
M. (3) AND GRAUMLICH, LISA J. (4)
(1) USGS Desert Laboratory, Tucson, AZ 85745, (2) NOAA Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder, CO
80305, (3) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (4) Big Sky Institute,
Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT 59717
Evidence from a growing network of paleoclimatic reconstructions emphasizes that strong, persistent
droughts- some outside the range of instrumental era events- are a common feature of Western climate.
On the other hand, extended wet periods that coincided with the economic and social development of the
West were, in some cases, anomalous events. Here we explore how droughts and pluvials of the 20th
century have shaped natural resource management and growth in the region. We then use a
combination of paleo archives to place the last 100 yrs in a long-term context, and explore how persistent
hydroclimatic anomalies affect the structure and function of natural systems. These results show that
droughts and pluvials are likely to be a primary driver of future environmental change. Widespread
droughts and pluvial regimes can also promote types of ecological and hydrologic change that may be
difficult to predict using current forecast methodologies. Overall, better knowledge of the geographic and
temporal aspects of extreme hydroclimatic variability must inform how we manage natural resources and
plan for the effects of global change.
EXAMINING THE RECENT CLIMATE THROUGH THE LENS OF ECOLOGY: INFERENCES FROM
TEMPORAL PATTERN ANALYSIS
HESSBURG, PAUL F. (1); ELLEN E. KUHLMANN (1); AND THOMAS W. SWETNAM (2)
(1) USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Wenatchee, WA, 98801 USA,
(2) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721 USA
Ecological theory asserts that the climate of a region exerts top-down controls on regional ecosystem patterns
and processes, across space and time. Before we evaluated the recent climate of the northwestern United
States (US), we established a Northwest climatic region by clustering time series of the Palmer Drought
Severity Index (PDSI) for the period of 1675-1978, for the western US. This helped to minimize variance in
climate attributes by climatic region. The background climatic regime and anomalies of the recent northwestern
US climate were then identified through temporal pattern analysis involving application of correspondence
analysis to the same PDSI time series. Our analysis distinguished 10 distinct periods and 4 unique types of
regimes. Five of the 10 periods (79% of the ~300 yr record) were marked by mild and equitable moisture
conditions (Pacific regime), the “background” climate of the Northwest. The remaining periods were anomalies.
Two periods displayed a high-variance, mixed signal marked by switching between severe to extreme annual
to interannual dry and wet episodes (High/Mixed regime, 9% of the record). Two more periods displayed a
moderate-variance, mixed signal marked by switching between moderate to severe annual to interannual dry
and wet episodes (Moderate/Mixed regime, 5%). Only one period was unidirectional and relatively lowvariance, marked by persistent yet mild to moderate drought (Low/Dry regime, 7%). Our method distinguished
decadal to interdecadal-scale regimes, defined regime periods, and detected both mixed and unidirectional
anomalies from the background climate; and it provided a plausible basis for examining the role of past climate
within terrestrial ecosystems of the Northwest. For example, we found concordance between the period of the
Low/Dry anomaly and a period of tree establishment in the Olympic Mountains of Washington, close alignment
between tree growth with the Moderate/Mixed and High/Mixed signals in Oregon, and a mixed fire response to
mixed climatic signals in northeastern Oregon. Linking historical climatic regimes to particular ecosystem
2
Speaker Abstracts (Invited)
patterns and processes also aids in the prediction of future ecosystem changes by providing evidence of the
kinds of interactions that may be anticipated.
THE NATURE CONSERVANCY’S PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATE CHANGE: THE NEW CHALLENGE
FOR CONSERVATION PLANNERS AND PRACTIONERS.
KIESECKER, JOE; WARD, JONI
The Nature Conservancy, Lander WY 82520
Conservation of biodiversity in the new millennium has increasingly difficult challenges to confront.
Already curtailed by habitat loss, pollution and over-exploitation, species and natural systems are now
faced with the need to adapt to new regimes of temperature, precipitation and climatic extremes. One of
the main impediments that groups like The Nature Conservancy faces when attempting to incorporate the
threat of climate change into conservation planning is the often divisive nature of predictions regarding
what can be expected to occur ‘on the ground’ as a result of climate change. Drawing on a survey of
Nature Conservancy scientists and individuals involved with conservation planning, we will discuss the
current consensus of staff from the Rocky Mountain Region of The Conservancy regarding how to
incorporate climate change data into conservation planning and the degree to which predictions from
climate change models have influenced conservation action on the ground. Finally, we will examine
current Nature Conservancy planning endeavors that have begun to incorporate the projected impacts of
climate change into ecoregional and landscape-level conservation planning.
SCIENCE AND THE FUTURE OF COLORADO RIVER POLICY AND COMPACT ISSUES
KUHN, ERIC
Colorado River Water Conservation District, Glenwood Springs, CO
The Colorado River provides critical water supplies to each of the seven Basin states and the Republic of
Mexico. In all but the wettest years the river is fully consumed. A small change in basin wide
precipitation could result in major water shortages. The interstate compacts, state and federal laws, and
court decrees which comprise the "Law of the River" were primarily developed during a very wet
hydrologic period. What are the consequences of future with less water in the Colorado River and who
are the likely winners and losers?
MODELING OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
LEUNG, L. RUBY
GAPP, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richmond, WA
Mountain environment and resources are sensitive to climate that exhibits large variability across a wide
range of temporal and spatial scales. Predictions of seasonal to interannual climate variations and
projections of long-term climate trends can provide significant values in understanding vulnerability and
managing resources of the mountains. Climate models are commonly used to study climate processes
and project long term climate trends. This presentation will discuss several climate modeling studies that
investigate climate variability and change in the western U.S. Examples will be given on how regional
climate models are applied in downscaling of climate scenarios and their advantages and limitations.
These include studies that assess the impacts of climate change on water resources and air quality in the
mountainous U.S. west. Recent progress in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program (NARCCAP) to generate multiple high resolution climate change scenarios for North America to
explore uncertainty in climate change projections will also be discussed.
3
Speaker Abstracts (Invited)
CLIMATE, MOUNTAIN ECOSYSTEMS, AND DISTURBANCE ACROSS SCALES: CHALLENGES
FOR THE NEXT CENTURY
MCKENZIE, DON
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, US Forest Service, Seattle, WA
With input from: Craig Allen, Sam Cushman, Paul Hessburg, Lara Kellogg, Jeremy Littell, Carol Miller,
Bruce Milne, Dave Peterson, Nate Stephenson, and others
Global warming ensures that mountain ecosystems are driven by non-equilibrium dynamics. Nonstationary climate forcing and dominance of disturbance regimes, particularly fire, by extreme events are
two factors that limit our ability to understand and predict ecosystem change. Land-use changes and
other pressures on mountain resources make non-reversible changes more likely and landscapes more
vulnerable, while making accurate predictions more urgent. I present three challenges to researchers
studying climate, mountain ecosystems, disturbance, and their interactions. These issues do not appear
to be tractable using current methodology, given limited resources, and may require new conceptual
advances and thinking outside the box. 1) understanding the biophysical controls on species distribution,
abundance, and migration, with emphasis on limiting factors. I focus on tree species of western
mountains and energy and water as canonical limiting factors. 2) understanding fire regimes in the
context of climatic variability. I focus on a multivariate approach with particular attention to fire severity.
3) Linking drivers and responses across scales: scaling laws and scale invariance vs. the need for
transfer functions. I use this issue to inform challenges 1 and 2, in that their solutions most likely involve
analyses at multiple scales. As climatic change continues and possibly accelerates, the demand for quick
simple answers will intensify, whereas their likelihood will diminish. One response to this conundrum is to
focus on issues and methods that will identify potential surprises and abrupt or non-reversible changes in
mountain landscapes.
THE MTNCLIM YEAR: WESTERN CLIMATE 2004-05 IN PERSPECTIVE
REDMOND, KELLY
Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, Reno Nevada
The year preceding the MTNCLIM 2005 meeting started with the warmest and driest March to affect the
11 western contiguous states in the past 110 years. March caused a dramatic and unwelcome change in
snowpack that guaranteed the region would remain in another year of hydrologic drought. Attention
shifted to Alaska during the summer as approximately six million acres burned. This was preceded by
record breaking temperatures and an extended dry period. The monsoon season was neither extremely
wet nor extremely dry, though enough activity occurred to satisfy the needs of the North American
Monsoon Experiment. October 2004 was an all-time standout wet month in the southwest, and set the
stage for a winter of exceptionally heavy precipitation in the same region, especially southern California.
Precipitation continued to fall during regimes of a week or so alternating with fair weather. The Southwest
ended up with one of its wettest seasons in history. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest and the northern
Rockies saw very little precipitation, as snowpack failed to materialize, many ski areas shut down, and
one of the driest winter seasons in history unfolded. The consequence was to move the center of
attention of the long-running (5-9 years) western drought from the south to the north. A mild El Nino is
under way, and the pattern looks strikingly like a classic El Nino precipitation pattern. However, the
atmospheric circulation that has produced this precipitation looks almost nothing like an El Nino
circulation pattern. This has been a major puzzle. An exceptionally heavy snowpack covered parts of the
Great Basin during the middle of winter. Southwest reservoirs, especially on the mainstem Colorado,
have a long way to go for recovery, but stand to gain some ground this year. The northern states of the
Rocky Mountains and the Cascades remain well into extended drought, and this has significant
implications for the upcoming fire season.
4
Speaker Abstracts (Invited)
DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE OF MOUNTAIN CLIMATES
RUNNING, STEVE
Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT
The Framework Convention on Climate Change has suggested a policy goal of limiting conditions that
would cause "dangerous anthropogenic interference" in the global climate system. Politicians are now
asking climate scientists to define when that is, and some have suggested sea level rise of 1m, where
50% of global population lives. I am trying to construct a definition of "dangerous anthropogenic
interference" for the mountains for the 4th IPCC report. My scenario goes...earlier snowmelt to earlier
phenology and stream peaks to summer drought and low streamflows to ecosystem stress to widespread
insect/disease outbreaks to wildfire. Pieces of this rather complicated scenario have been published by
members of this audience. I will try to complete this scenario with solid evidence, with assistance from the
audience, please bring your data. Only by clearly defining these dangerous thresholds will certain
politicians become motivated to act on this issue.
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE USING A MULTI-BARRIER WATERSHED APPROACH
SCHREIER, HANS
Institute for Resources and Environment, University of British Columbia
Uncertainty associated with increased climatic variability is placing new challenges on watershed
managers. The problem is exacerbated because urban expansion, which creates large impervious areas,
agricultural intensification, which compacts soils, and forest fires, which alter soil surface conditions, are
responsible for creating higher and faster surface runoff. Because of these surface changes and the
elaborate conveyance systems that have been built to managed urban stormwater and agricultural
drainage, pollutants reach streams and groundwater more rapidly without much chance of retention and
natural remediation. It is the cumulative effect of these activities and land uses that is difficult to predict
and prevent. A multi-barrier approach is likely the best hedge we have to adapt to increased flooding,
drought events, and water pollution. This requires a major shift from traditional practices to innovations
that focus on minimizing impervious surfaces, remediating soil compaction, maintaining high soil
infiltration rates, detaining water in headwater systems, maintaining continuous watershed wide buffer
zones, and using best land use practices that minimize erosion and nutrient losses. Searching for new
water supplies is becoming increasingly difficult and source control and conservation are the best
alternatives. Water treatment is also becoming increasingly complex and no single methods is adequate
for the type of risk protection demanded by the public. Watershed management plans should contain
provisions for innovative ways of controlling land use, surface runoff and pollution. Tracking pathogens,
nutrients and other contaminant from source to tap and infiltrating and detaining rainfall in the headwaters
are positive ways to initiate a multi-barrier approach in a watershed. Examples of innovative stormwater
management in urban and agricultural settings will be provided.
VISUAL OBSERVATIONS OF MOUNTAIN MICROCLIMATES
WHITEMAN, C. DAVID
Meteorology Department, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
Mountains are under-represented in climate records, with few long-term climate stations at the higher
elevations. Meteorological observations in these extreme environments, which exhibit large temporal and
spatial variabilities, are often suspect due to measurement difficulties or poor siting of measurement
stations. Of particular concern to researchers in many disciplines is the lack of information on climate
variations at the smallest scales, where visual observations of the ecosystems show important climaterelated changes that are closely tied to the topography and are occurring over spatial scales from several
meters to several kilometers. In this talk, selected factors affecting meteorological and climate variability
on small scales in mountains will be summarized using photographs and illustrations of weather events.
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Speaker Abstracts (Invited)
Field-observable features of mountain weather, their physical basis, and their meaning for mountain
microclimates will be emphasized, and examples will be given of the effects of mountain weather and
climate on the natural environment, ecosystems and natural resources.
COMMUNITY AND EVOLUTIONARY CONSEQUENCES OF RECORD DROUGHT IN THE
SOUTHWEST
WHITHAM, THOMAS G.
Department of Biological Sciences and the Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Northern
Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011
With the record drought that the southwest has been experiencing since 1996, dominant plant species
from low to high elevations have suffered local mortality of 100% and landscape-level mortality as high as
41%. Not all dominants suffer the same levels of mortality (e.g., pinyon pine = 41% and juniper = 3%
mortality). Because these dominants are community drivers, as they go, so goes the rest of the
community. On pinyon pine about 1000 species are affected including microbes, fungal mutualists,
insects, birds and mammals. There are also important gene x environment interactions that result in
unexpected outcomes that could affect management decisions and reforestation. For example, insect
susceptible trees are 3x more likely to survive the drought than insect resistant genotypes. Because
drought is affecting the genetic makeup of the surviving population, this drought event is not only a major
ecological event, it is also likely to be an evolutionary event. These findings have important implications
for understanding both the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change. To further
understand the population, community and ecosystem consequences of drought, with NSF support, we
have established a program called DIREnet (Drought Impacts on Regional Ecosystems Network), whose
aim is to promote the coordination and synthesis of ecological research on drought effects and the
potential role of global climate change. We are seeking broader membership and encourage you to visit
our website at http://www.mpcer.nau.edu/direnet/.
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Speaker Abstracts (Invited)
Contributed Talks
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate & Disturbance Regimes; TALK
CLIMATE AND PATTERNS OF TREE GROWTH AND DEATH IN THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS, NEW
MEXICO: 1991 TO PRESENT.
ALLEN, CRAIG D. (1); BEELEY, KAY (2)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey, Jemez Mountains Field Station, Los Alamos, NM, (2) Bandelier National
Monument, Los Alamos, NM 87544
Since 1991 we have monitored the growth of thirty ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees in the Jemez
Mountains of northern New Mexico. Changes in circumference are measured with a spring-tensioned,
metal dendrometer band mounted at 1.5 m above the ground. Measurements are taken weekly from
spring to fall, bi-monthly during the winter. Ten trees were instrumented at each of three sites along the
elevational range of ponderosa pine in Bandelier National Monument. The upper elevation site (2750 m)
is ponderosa pine forest mixed with Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), white fir (Abies concolor), and
southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis). The middle site (2310 m) is completely dominated by
ponderosa pine, and the low site (1980 m) is ponderosa pine amidst piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis,
Juniperus monosperma) woodland. Climatic variability drives growth patterns between sites across this
montane elevational gradient, and between years. Low elevation trees begin growing in mid-April and the
upper elevation trees begin two-three weeks later, with the mid elevation trees starting in between.
Growth is greatest at the wetter upper elevation site and least at the drier low site. At both low and mid
sites the trees are sensitive to multi-week dry periods during the growing season, shrinking at times but
recovering when it rains again. The growth monitoring began during a wet period favorable for tree
growth, transitioning to drought conditions in the late 1990s. The cumulative effect of recent dry years
can be seen in the significantly reduced growth at all sites, showing up first at the lower and drier sites but
including the upper elevation site since 2001. Severe drought from 2000-2003 triggered tree mortality – at
the lowest site all banded trees died in 2002, as have several replacement trees since. At the middle site
one tree died in 2003 and another is near death, while all upper site trees survive to date. Tree growth
patterns also inform seasonality interpretations of prehistoric fire activity from abundant fire-scar samples
collected in the Jemez Mountains, confirming the predominance of natural fire activity in the typically dry
period before the onset of “monsoonal” summer rains ~in July. Growth patterns are also presented for
eight piñon near the low elevation site that were monitored from 1995 until their drought-induced death in
2003, and for five Douglas-fir monitored since spring 2004 at the high elevation site.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; TALK
UPDATE ON PLANS TO ESTABLISH A NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK
BETANCOURT, JULIO L. (1); AND SCHWARTZ, MARK D. (2)
(1) USGS, Desert Lab, Tucson, AZ 85745, (2) Dept. of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee,
Milwaukee, WI 53201-0413
A specific recommendation to emerge from an 8/04 NEON workshop on ecological impacts of climate
change (http://ibrcs.aibs.org/reports/pdf/neon-climate-report.pdf) is the need to establish a National
Phenology Network (NPN). Phenological networks exist in Europe, Canada and globally, but the U. S.
does not have a single, regional-scale phenological observation network, let alone a national one. A
comprehensive, wall-to-wall NPN is not only necessary, but is also an obvious way to involve the general
public as routine observers, and thus increase awareness of ecological responses to climate change.
Planning for such a network is already under way. Recently, Mark Schwartz at the Univ. of Wisconsin
launched a prototype for a web-based NPN (http://www.npn.uwm.edu), and a workshop is planned for
summer 2005 to identify research questions, prioritize species and measurements, estimate costs, design
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
the grid, and draft interagency agreements to ensure long-term support. An obvious model, if not perhaps
part of the footprint, is the National Cooperative Mesonet, which by 2008 will succeed the National
Weather Service's 100-yr old COOP Program. In an ideal world, a subset of phenological observations
would be made in cooperation with existing Mesonet stations, and in return NPN and associated
organizations would help support new weather stations at phenological observation sites of special
interest to the ecological and climate research communities. We envision up to 10,000 stations with both
weather and phenological observations. The main objectives would be a thorough understanding of plant
phenological cycles and their relationship to temperature and precipitation; comprehensive groundtruthing of green-up and other remotely sensed phenological measurements; and eventual detection and
discrimination of long-term phenological trends in response to long-term climate variability and global
warming. Among many potential applications, NPN could help evaluate the impact of longer growing
seasons on pollinators, herbivores, crop and forest pests, fire ecology, carbon balance and the hydrologic
cycle.
MTCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; TALK
AMBIENT OZONE IN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL EUROPEAN MOUNTAINS
BYTNEROWICZ, ANDRZEJ (1); ARBAUGH, MICHAEL (1); AND FRĄCZEK, WITOLD (2)
(1) USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Riverside, CA 92507 (2) Environmental
Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA 92373
Together with elevated concentrations of CO2 and temperatures, concentrations of ambient ozone (O3)
have been increasing for more than 100 years. At present, phytotoxic O3 levels are common in many
mountain areas of North America and Europe affecting health of forest and other ecosystems. Monitoring
of O3 concentrations in remote mountain locations has become possible with the development of passive
samplers. Passive sampler O3 monitoring networks have been developed in several mountain ranges in
California and Central Europe. Data from these networks aided with geostatistics have allowed for
production of O3 distribution maps in complex mountain terrain. Such maps will be presented for the
entire Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, and for a smaller portion of the Sierra range (Lake Tahoe
Basin). Transport of O3 across the Sierra Nevada will be shown for the San Joaquin River transect.
Ozone distribution will also be presented for the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California and the
Tatra & Retezat Mountains in the Carpathian range, Central Europe. Emissions from the combustion
engines are the main source of O3 precursors, however, forest fires may also contribute to the elevated
O3 levels and changing distribution patterns. Effects of elevated O3 concentrations on forests and other
ecosystems can be modified by various abiotic and biotic factors, among them increasing temperatures,
CO2 levels and nitrogen deposition.
MTNCLM 2005 Theme: Climate Variability: Adaptation, Mitigation and Restoration; TALK
WILLOW RESPONSE TO CHANGING CLIMATE ON YELLOWSTONE’S NORTHERN WINTER
RANGE
DESPAIN, DON G
USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT 59717
Willows in the mountain ecosystems of the central and northern Rocky Mountains are well adapted to the
cool moist sites that constitute their habitats. These sites also produce high amounts of plant biomass
that is a significant factor to most of the herbivores using the same areas. This creates two opposing
forces acting on willow adaptation. Height growth is needed to compete with neighbors for light but that
growth must be defended against herbivores. Willow growth depends on plant hormones (auxins) and
availability of carbohydrates but the production and transport of auxins to growth sites are sensitive to
temperature. Auxins are also influenced by day length. The long days of spring and early summer allow
for maximum auxin production but shorter days of late summer and fall cause a decrease in auxin
availability as the plants begin the cold acclimation process for winter survival. Production of defensive
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
chemicals also depends on carbohydrate availability but is second to growth in competition for
carbohydrates. Climatic conditions must allow for both needs to be met if willows are to grow tall in the
presence of browsers. Willows throughout the northern winter range switched from producing annual
growth of 20-30 cm to 60-120 cm about 1997. On the northern winter range in Yellowstone National
Park, the number of days with minimum temperatures > 0ºC for the months of May-October has
increased by an average of 23.5 days (26%) for the period 1997-2004 compared to 1985-1996. For MayJuly the increase was 11.8 days (23%) and for August-October 13.6 days (37%). This change in climate
could explain the increased summer growth throughout the winter range and the appearance of tall
willows in some locations.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; TALK
WARMING TRENDS AND GROUNDWATER RECHARGE IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH
IMPLICATIONS FOR GROUNDWATER AND SURFACE-WATER RESOURCES
EARMAN, SAM (1); DETTINGER, MICHAEL (2)
(1) Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512-1095; (2) US Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224
Groundwater is a vital resource in the western USA. In 2000, 26% of all western water uses (excluding
power generation) and 28% of irrigation were supplied from groundwater. Western ecosystems also
depend on these resources, especially in riparian and phreatophyte stands. Groundwater is also an
important contributor to surface-water resources: groundwater inflows make significant contributions to
western streamflow, sustaining flows during long dry seasons and contributing significant fractions even
during intense rainfall and snowmelt episodes.
Because mountains are generally wetter and cooler than adjacent basins, groundwater in the West is
derived mainly from mountain precipitation. Because large and intense infiltrations of water are required
to break through the region’s thick unsaturated zones, and because snowpacks store and then release
precipitation from several storms at once, snowmelt provides more recharge than does rain. Isotopic
studies in western settings have suggested that 50 to 90% of recharge is from snowmelt. Recent
temperature analyses based on dissolved gases in groundwater from the Chiricahua Mountains (AZ)
show that recharge in the central portion of the range is derived only from above seasonal snowlines.
As the western climate warmed in recent decades, precipitation came more frequently as rain rather than
snow, snowpacks thinned, and snowfed streams flowed earlier in the year. The trends would continue
under projected 21st-century climates. Snowline elevations may be expected to rise and thus snowcovered areas would decline in western mountains. If so, mountain-block recharge also may be expected
to decline, as recharge areas shrink and as snow available for snowmelt infiltration dwindles. Declines in
recharge triggered by warming may seriously impact groundwater supplies as well as surface-water
resources to which groundwater inflows contribute. Given groundwater’s crucial role in western water,
potential impacts of warming on recharge deserve more attention than they have received to date.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; TALK
NON-TRIVIAL MOUNTAIN INFLUENCE ON DRY AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA
HALL, ALEX; CONIL, SEBASTIEN; HUGHES, MIMI; MASI, GREG
UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA
We analyze a super-high 6 km resolution numerical model of the atmosphere covering the southern third
of California and forced at its boundaries by the observed large-scale weather conditions from 1995 to the
present. The simulation exhibits significant spatial structure in climatological fields, including precipitation
9
Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
and temperature. These structures agree very well with the independently-derived, observationally-based
PRISM data set. We find that simulated modes of circulation variability correspond directly to extreme dry
and wet conditions. The dry mode is associated with offshore flow, and corresponds nearly perfectly with
an observed index of the region’s famous Santa Ana winds. By elucidating the mechanism behind this
phenomenon, we demonstrate that the Santa Anas would not exist at all without the unique configuration
of mountains in the region. The importance of local processes in this mode is also evident in the fact that
it is uncorrelated with large-scale modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño phenomenon or the
Pacific—North American teleconnection pattern. Local mountain influences also play an unexpected role
in the much rarer wet mode, associated with onshore flow. In this case, the mountains alter circulation
during rain events, so that precipitation is not simply enhanced by orography as moist air flows over the
region’s mountain complexes. Instead the mountains consistently generate strong low level blocked
flows on their coastal flank parallel to the shore, forcing moist onshore flow to begin its ascent over the
ocean, as far as 50-100 km from the shore, rather than directly over the mountain slopes. Thus an
enhancement of precipitation is visible over the coastal ocean and the low-lying coastal zone as well as
over the mountains. We therefore conclude that mountains play a essential and non-trivial role in
generating both extreme dry and wet conditions throughout Southern California.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; TALK
ANOTHER POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE ACCELERATION OF TREE-RING GROWTH AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR WEST SINCE THE LATE 19TH CENTURY
HUGHES, MALCOLM K.
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
The high elevation conifers of the semi-arid western USA have been used in many reconstructions of past
climate, but those at the highest elevations present special problems. For example, there a strong upward
trend in ring width of high elevation conifers since the late19th century, unique on a millennial timescale,
on a sub-continental scale. This conclusion is based on analyses of a network of 24 tree-ring
chronologies from the region stretching from the Sierra Nevada of California to the Rocky Mountains of
Colorado. All cover at least the period from AD 1000 to the late 20th century with good replication, have a
minimum segment length of 500 years, and were only minimally detrended so as to conserve century and
multi-century-scale variations. Their site elevations range from approximately 2500 to 3500 meters a.s.l..
The upward trend of the last 150 years is clearly evident only in the chronologies from above 3100
meters. It has been difficult to establish clear, consistent, correlations between this trend and the
variability around it and local climate variables during the instrumental period. This is doubtless in part
due to the paucity of long meteorological records in the high mountains. On the other hand, chronologies
from lower elevations show clear and strongly significant correlations with precipitation-related variables.
Several explanations have been proposed for the upward trend during the past 150 years of the series
from above 3100 meters elevation, including CO2 fertilization mediated through increased water use
efficiency. A new explanation will be proposed, based on greatly accelerated spring-summer warming at
these elevations in this region over at least the last 50 years, seen in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Urban/Social Interactions with Climate; TALK
CLIMATE RESEARCH AND PRODUCTS RELEVANT TO MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS: INPUT FROM
STAKEHOLDERS
LENART, MELANIE (1); GARFIN, GREGG (1); AND MOREHOUSE, BARBARA (1); VÁSQUEZ-LEÓN,
MARCELA (2)
(1)University of Arizona Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, (2) University of Arizona, Bureau of Applied
Research in Anthropology
The University of Arizona’s Climate Assessment of the Southwest (CLIMAS) has a 7-year history of
collecting information from stakeholders about their climate information and forecasting needs. Surveys
and interactive workshops contribute to its mission of fostering participatory, iterative research involving
scientists, decision makers, resource users, educators and others who need information and forecasts to
respond appropriately to climatic events and climate variability and change. Here we summarize some
findings with applications for mountain research from various CLIMAS research initiatives, drawing from
the expressed needs of land managers, firefighters, tourism promoters, ranchers, employees of
government agencies and non-governmental organizations, forest product entrepreneurs, and policy
makers. For instance, during a recent National Seasonal Assessment workshop CLIMAS co-organized to
assess fire potential in the eastern United States, state fire managers requested more explicit data on the
intensity and frequency of precipitation events, including in areas of high topographic relief. During
informal and formal interviews in the White Mountains area of Arizona, the focus of an ongoing integrated
climate assessment project by CLIMAS researchers, a variety of potential climate-product users provided
information on some of their needs. For example, land managers and those dependent on ski slope
tourism described specific informational needs about how climate change might affect southwestern
Ponderosa forests and snow cover distribution and timing. An innovative forest stewardship monitoring
project in the White Mountains area also will be discussed. CLIMAS is housed at the UA Institute for the
Study of Planet Earth and is supported by NOAA.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate & Disturbance Regimes; TALK
ECOLOGICAL CONTEXT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON FIRE: WILDLAND FIRE AREA BURNED IN
THE WESTERN U.S. 1916-2003
LITTELL, JEREMY S. (1, 2); MCKENZIE, DONALD (3); PETERSON, DAVID L. (1,2,3)
(1) Fire and Mountain Ecology Lab, University of Washington College of Forest Resources, Seattle, WA,
(2) JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, WA, (3) Fire and Environmental Research Applications
Team, USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station, Seattle, WA
We used two wildland fire area burned datasets and historical climate data to evaluate the degree to
which climate variability between 1916 and 2003 exerted an influence on the annual area burned in ecoprovinces of 11 western states in the US. One of the fire datasets is 88 yr long and cumulated by state.
The second is 21 yr but has greater spatial precision at 1°x 1° lat/long. We used the relationships during
the common period to reconstruct area burned by eco-province for the full record. Preliminary work
suggests relationships between the two fire area burned datasets are reasonable for reconstruction
purposes in most eco-provinces (average R2 = 0.55, range = 0.16 – 0.81) and that the fire/climate
relationships are often temperature- and drought- driven. Sub-regional seasonal and annual predictors for
temperature and precipitation combined explain 25-52% (mean 30%) of the variability in 1916-2003 fire
area burned. Increasing fire area is positively associated with lagged precipitation for many of the semidesert steppe and grassland eco-provinces, whereas the relationship is negative for more heavily
forested eco-provinces. Annual temperature, however, is the single best predictor for 9 of the 15
preliminary eco-province models. Our results suggest that the ecological context of twentieth century
climate/fire relationships has some similar features with the fire history record prior to the mid-19th
century.
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate and Disturbance Regimes; TALK
RISK ASSESSMENT FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INTRODUCED PEST IN FACE OF A CHANGING
CLIMATE
LOGAN, J.A. (1); RÉGINÈRE, J. (2); GRAY, D.R. (3); MUNSON, S.A. (4)
(1) USDA Forest Service, Forest Sciences Laboratory, Logan, Utah 84321, (2) Canadian Forest Service,
Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec, Canada G1V 4C7. (3) Canadian Forest Service, Atlantic Forestry
Centre, NB, Canada E3B 5P7. (4) USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Ogden, UT 84403
Detection of an exotic, introduced pest invariably raises the question of risk assessment. Is the detected
pest a serious threat or not? Answering this question is non-trivial: on one hand, we clearly do not want
yet another deleterious impact on our already beleaguered forests of the mountain west; on the other
hand, it is unwise to waste seriously limited resources responding to something that is not a serious
threat. This dilemma is confounded by climate warming, a factor that may impact the establishment
probability of an interdiction. In this presentation we describe a landscape modeling system to evaluate
risk of gypsy moth establishment in native forest of Utah. Gypsy moth is a serious defoliator that was
introduced into Massachusetts in the mid 1880s. Since that time, it has expanded its range throughout
the deciduous forest of the northeast and central U.S. Given the influx of immigrants and tourists from
infested areas into Utah, multiple gypsy moth introductions are detected every year. Utah also abounds
in favored hosts for gypsy moth; namely aspen, Gamble's oak and various maples. The risk mapping
system we have devised evaluates the probability of establishment for current and projected climate, and
is being currently used to evaluate gypsy moth trap recoveries.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks & Water/Ice; TALK
SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AND LAPSE RATES: IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER
RESOURCES AND STUDIES OF MOUNTAIN CLIMATE CHANGE
LUNDQUIST, JESSICA D. (1); DOLE, RANDALL M. (2); DETTINGER, MICHAEL D. (3); AND CAYAN,
DANIEL R. (4)
(1) CIRES-Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO 80309, (2) NOAA-Climate Diagnostics Center,
Boulder, CO 80305, (3) USGS-Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92039, (4) Scripps
Institution of Oceanography-USGS, La Jolla, CA 92039
Mountains are the water towers of the western United States, and some of the greatest concerns about
climate change in this region involve snowmelt timing and water supply. A realistic description of how
temperatures vary with elevation is crucial for models of basin-scale snowmelt and spring streamflow.
However, measurements at high elevations are scarce, and studies of long-term temperature trends have
reached strikingly different conclusions about whether the high mountains are warming faster or slower
than the lowlands (Beniston et al. 1997; Pepin 2000). More high-frequency observations of the spatial
and temporal variations of mountain temperatures are needed before these long-term trends can be fully
explained. For example, observed surface temperatures vary diurnally, synoptically, and seasonally and
only sometimes increase linearly with elevation. Local inversions and cold air drainage may make a longterm measurement site unrepresentative of temperatures across most of the surrounding topography.
Fortunately, small, low-cost temperature loggers can now be deployed at high densities in complex
mountain terrain. We use a prototypical array of over 40 such sensors in Yosemite National Park,
California, combined with snow and streamflow measurements, to demonstrate 1) how temperature
patterns and lapse rates vary with synoptic weather conditions, 2) how snowmelt patterns reflect recurring
temperature differences, and 3) how spatial patterns of snowcover affect temperature. These results can
be applied to improving snowmelt models and to interpreting how well long-term measurements represent
the surrounding terrain.
Beniston, M., Diaz, H. F. and Bradley, R. S. 1997. Climatic change at high elevation sites: an overview.
Clim. Change, 36, 233.
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
Pepin, N. 2000. Twentieth-century change in the climate record for the Front Range, Colorado, USA.
Artic, Antarctic, and Alpine Res., 32, 135-146.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water/Ice; TALK
ROCK GLACIERS AND PERIGLACIAL ROCK/ICE FEATURES IN THE CENTRAL-EASTERN SIERRA
NEVADA; MAPPING, CLASSIFICATION, AND A PROPOSAL FOR ORIGINS
MILLAR, CONNIE
USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Sierra Nevada Research Center, Albany, CA
Rock glaciers and related rock/ice features are common but little-studied structures in many western
mountains. Most research attention has focused on features likely to have glacial properties similar to
clean glaciers, in particular, ice-cored rock glaciers that might yield a laminar ice record. A rich diversity
of glacial and periglacial types exists in addition. These are mostly overlooked; however, as they have
been lumped into two categories -- rock glaciers and protalus ramparts -- that don’t adequately represent
the field diversity. I mapped 302 features in the central eastern Sierra Nevada, including active (snow/ice
present) and dead (no ice present), Holocene and Pleistocene features, recording location, elevation,
form, and orientation for each. I propose a taxonomic hypothesis to represent relationships among the
types and potential path of origins of mapped rock/ice features in the eastern Sierra Nevada. The
classification divides the features into two major types: Rock Glaciers (glacial-like function) and Rock
Periglaciers (periglacial), each with subtypes, for a total of 16 categories. For each category, I nominate
a type location. All type locations, and many mapped features, are photographed. Representatives of
the active Rock Glaciers had average low elevations of 11,114’ and average high elevations of 11,569’;
Rock Periglaciers averages ranged from 10,590’-10,897’, while subtypes Boulder Streams ranged from
10,608-10,990 and Solufluction Fields ranged from 11,350’-11,894’. The overall orientation of active
features ranged from NNW to NNE, although occasional east and even southern orientations occurred
where canyons or cirques were narrow and cold. The category Rock Glaciers was most tightly
constrained of all types in orientation to northward; periglacial features were far more diverse in
orientation. Among those, Rock Periglaciers were more often northward while Boulder Streams were
commonly southward. Features mapped as dead (likely Pleistocene origin) ranged lower in elevation,
from an average low elevation of 10,138’ to average high elevation of 10,953’, and often had eastward
orientations, filling major eastside Sierran canyons similar to those documented as Pleistocene clean
glaciers. Rock glaciers and related rock/ice features are not only interesting to glacial geology study, but
important because they have been little incorporated in hydrologic modeling. Because they are rockcovered, these features appear just to be rock slopes, and thus have been “invisible” to water modeling,
where focus may be on snow- and icepack. Not only are rock/ice features reservoirs of water, however,
but their rock mantling buffers them from rising temperatures, and creates a greater lag in response to
warming climate than clean glaciers or snowpack. I offer the tentative proposals here in hope they may
help hydrologists evaluate potential significance of these features to water reservoirs and run-off.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; TALK
NINETEENTH CENTURY HISTORICAL CLIMATIC DATA IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES
MOCK, CARY J. (1); MICHAEL HARTMAN (2); CONNIE WOODHOUSE (2); GREGORY J. CARBONE
(1); MICHAEL D. ANDERSON (1); DOUGLAS O. MAYES (1); AND LAURA STROUP (1)
(1) Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, (2) Paleoclimatology
Branch, NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Boulder, CO 80305
Historical climatic reconstructions provide a perspective of climatic variability ranging from daily to
decadal timescales well before the temporal coverage of the twentieth century (modern) instrumental
records. Such reconstructions provide important information on climatic variability and ecological
disturbance in mountainous regions related to drought, floods, snowstorms, freezing events, and
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
windstorms. Much unexploited historical climatic data from the mid nineteenth century exists in western
North America in the forms of written annals, diaries, newspapers, and early instrumental records. We
describe the different types of nineteenth century historical climatic data that are available for the western
mountain regions, currently being listed in a Historical Climate Catalogue. We describe several examples
of reconstructions, focusing on locations in the Rocky Mountains and the Pacific mountain ranges. The
northern Utah reconstruction, in particular, is the most comprehensive daily reconstruction conducted to
date, and it extends back to the early 1850s. Its daily data were carefully assessed concerning quality
and homogeneity. Nineteenth century summer temperatures were about 1.5 degrees C lower than those
in the twentieth century, corresponding with the latter timeframe of the Little Ice Age. Highly anomalous
wetness is also evident in the northern Utah record during the late 1860s and early 1870s, which exceeds
the magnitude of wetness evident in the early 1980s. We also discuss the potential for applying these
climate reconstructions to assess historical impacts on society.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; TALK
CLIMATE-DRIVEN CHANGES IN SNOWMELT HYDROLOGY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST
MOTE, PHILIP; HAMLET, ALAN; LETTENMAIER DENNIS
JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Observations augmented by a hydrological model simulations are used to analyze these hydrologic
responses to changing climate from 1916-2003. The use of a physically-based hydrologic model allows
us to more fully identify sensitive climatic regimes and to distinguish the separate influences of
temperature and precipitation in driving hydrological trends over different time periods. The results show
that the observed downward trends in spring snowpack and the streamflow timing shifts that result are
predominantly temperature driven (changes in regional precipitation at different times not withstanding).
Thus the future sensitivity of particular areas to continued warming is also identified. Moderate elevation
mountain watersheds near the coast with relatively warm mid-winter temperatures, for example, are
shown to be among the most sensitive areas to the continued warming that is expected to occur over the
next several decades.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate and Disturbance; TALK
COMPARING NEW AND OLD SCENARIOS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON FIRE,
CARBON AND VEGETATION DIVERSITY IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS
NEILSON, RONALD P. (1); BACHELET, DOMINIQUE (2); LENIHAN, JAMES M. (1); AND DRAPEK,
RAY (1)
(1) USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR 97331, (2) Oregon State University,
Corvallis, OR 97331
Western mountains are a tremendous reservoir of natural resources, from diversity of life to clean water
and more recently as a means of sequestering carbon in expanding woody vegetation. The MAPSS team
has published future climate impacts simulations on western ecosystems using seven future climate
scenarios, contributing to several past assessments for the U.S government and the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is currently drafting its next assessment using a whole new
suite of future climate scenarios. We will present results of changing biogeography, fire dynamics and
carbon sequestration in western mountains using the MAPSS biogeography model and the MC1 dynamic
general vegetation model (DGVM) under six new scenarios, comparing and contrasting them to the older
scenarios. We are able to make direct comparisons between older and newer versions of the Canadian
and Hadley center models, but include a new set of scenarios from an Australian model. The newer
scenarios are from three coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCM), each of which is
operated under two different future trace gas emissions scenarios (relatively high and relatively low CO2
emissions). The new scenarios contrast with the older ones in two very important aspects: 1) There is a
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
tendency for the Southwest to go drier under some scenarios in contrast to the wetter past scenarios,
resulting in expansion of SW deserts; and 2) The Northwest gets much drier under some scenarios, in
contrast to increased precipitation in the past scenarios, causing some decline in NW forests. Consistent
with past simulations, future temperatures increase overall, allowing a potentially massive migration of
frost-intolerant vegetation into the Great Basin, much of which would be established in mountainous
terrain. Additional impacts, including fire, climate and carbon sequestration interactions, will also be
discussed.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate Variability: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Restoration; TALK
ADAPTIVELY MANAGING PROTECTED AREAS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
PRATO, TONY
Center for Agricultural, Resource, and Environmental Systems, and Division of Applied Social Sciences,
University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211
A feasible and effective way for protected area managers to respond to climate change is to develop and
implement adaptation strategies that reduce the social and ecological vulnerability of protected areas to
climate change. This task is challenging because of uncertainty regarding the nature and extent of the
physical impacts of climate change, ecological responses to those impacts, and the effectiveness of
alternative mitigation and adaptation strategies in reducing social and ecological vulnerability to climate
change. The Adaptively Managing Protected Areas for Climate Change (AMPAC) modeling system is
proposed as an integrated framework for evaluating and selecting adaptation strategies to reduce the
vulnerability of an existing protected area to climate change. AMPAC consists of five models that are
applied to a protected area. The Climate Change Model specifies plausible climate scenarios. The
Ecosystem Response Model simulates the most likely biophysical and social responses to the climate
scenarios with and without the adaptation strategies based on expert knowledge (Delphi method) and
experimental results from the Adaptive Management Model. The latter employs adaptive management
experiments to test hypotheses about ecosystem responses to adaptation strategies. The Ecosystem
Vulnerability Model assesses the extent to which alternative adaptation strategies ameliorate vulnerability
to climate change. The Optimal Strategy Model identifies the best adaptation strategy for each climate
scenario. Application of AMPAC to a protected area requires considerable technical/scientific data and
information. Environmental monitoring and assessment programs and scientific management approaches
developed by the National Park Service and other federal land management agencies responsible for
managing protected areas should make it easier to meet these requirements in the future. Whether it is
worthwhile for managers to implement AMPAC in protected areas can be assessed by initiating a pilot
program to estimate the expected benefits and expected costs of applying AMPAC in a sample of
protected areas.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; TALK
SIMULATED RESPONSE OF TWO WYOMING GLACIERS TO PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
PLUMMER, MITCHELL A. (1); AND CECIL, L. DEWAYNE (2)
(1) Idaho National Engineering & Environmental Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-2107, (2) U.S.
Geological Survey, Idaho Falls, ID 83402
Projected warming rates for the 21st century in western Wyoming range from approximately 0.2ºC to
0.6ºC per decade. Such changes, unless offset by changes in precipitation, may cause large-scale retreat
of the extant glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains. To determine the likely response, we used a 2-D
numerical model of energy/snow balance and ice flow to simulate the impact of projected climate changes
on two glaciers for which some long-term monitoring data are available – the Teton Glacier in Grand
Teton National Park and the Fremont Glacier (UFG) in the Wind River range. Both glaciers are relatively
small and one of the difficulties in predicting the response of such glaciers is that the energy balance,
which largely controls the glacier budget, has high spatial variability because the shortwave irradiance is
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
strongly controlled by topography. The applied model accounts for those effects, includes a generally
physically-based treatment of the other components of the surface energy balance and provides a good
description of the effect of ice flow on glacier shape. Simulations involving a variety of altered climates
suggest that under the projected warming rates, most of the Teton Glacier will have melted away within
30 to 75 years. Similar simulations of the Fremont Glacier indicate that while it is less sensitive to
warming, it will also undergo severe recession over the next 50 years. The numerical model is also wellsuited for testing what combinations of climatic changes could have produced the glaciers that built
various moraine complexes during the latest Pleistocene and Holocene. We will demonstrate that
approach to reconstructing past climatic conditions with several simulations of last glacial maximum
glaciers and compare results to other regional paleoclimatic data.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology and Paleoclimatology (alt: Water, Ice and Water Resources);
TALK
GROUNDWATER-MEDIATED HOLOCENE HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY IN THE INTERMONTANE
NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHAPLEY, MARK D. (1); ITO, EMI (1); DONOVAN, JOSEPH J. (2)
(1) Limnological Research Center, Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis MN 55414, (2) Department of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University,
Morgantown WV 26506
Fluid balance and aqueous geochemistry of groundwater-dominated lakes respond to climate through
changes in groundwater fluxes, including recharge. Such lakes thus reflect groundwater dynamics that
are also of primary importance in stream baseflow and wetland maintenance. Where preserved,
geochemical records from groundwater-driven lake systems may therefore record the effects of climate
on a major element of the intermontane water cycle.
Here we describe the results of detailed study of sediment from a groundwater-dominated lake situated in
the Ovando Valley of western Montana. Jones Lake is a small (1 km X .2 km, 1E6 m3) lake occupying an
ice-block depression within glacial and glaciofluvial sediments of the Blackfoot River basin. Inflow is by
direct precipitation and by locally recharged groundwater flow; outflow occurs by groundwater seepage to
a nearby stream and by evaporation. Mineral endogenesis precipitates calcium carbonate minerals as
enhanced-pCO2 groundwaters adjust to the lake environment.
Endogenic carbonate minerals provide a high-resolution record of changing lake fluid and solute balance
through mineralogy, isotopic composition and mineral abundance. Repetitive sequences of organic and
inorganic carbon partitioning reflect variation in formation and preservation of endogenic minerals (calcite
or aragonite) and organic material. Quasi-cyclic 13C and 18O variation records coupled changes in
lake fluid balance and carbon cycling. Spectral analyses indicate probable multidecadal and centuryscale periodicities, superimposed over milennial-scale geochemical evolution. Geochemical expressions
of multidecadal hydrologic cycles were enhanced relative to the present during (generally more arid) early
and mid-Holocene times.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; TALK
ALASKAN NPS CLIMATE MONITORING PROGRAM
SOUSANES, PAMELA J.
National Park Service, Denali National Park and Preserve, Denali Park AK 99755
This presentation focuses on the development of the climate monitoring program for the National Park
Service (NPS) Central Alaska Network (CAKN) Inventory and Monitoring Program in Alaska. A main
objective of the CAKN is to monitor and record weather conditions at representative locations in order to
identify long- and short-term trends, provide reliable climate data to researchers, and participate in larger
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
scale climate monitoring and modeling efforts. The network, including Denali National Park, Wrangell-St.
Elias National Park, and Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve, covers more than 21 million acres.
Elevations range from sea level to 20,320 feet (6,194 m). Latitudes span from 55 degrees north to more
than 65 degrees north. Climate in this vast area is extremely variable, ranging from strongly maritime to
strongly continental, with large differences in temperature and precipitation. Existing observations in these
areas are sparse. In 2003, over 40 sites were visited at the three parks in order to obtain specific
information on the suitability of each site for climate monitoring. The main criteria in locating sites was 1)
to get the best possible spatial coverage, 2) to sample different ecoregions, and 3) to get a good
elevational gradient between sites. Additionally, the logistics of operating sites in remote regions was
addressed. A panel of climate experts from the National Weather Service, the Natural Resources
Conservation Service, and the Western Regional Climate Center were solicited to review a detailed,
technical site evaluation. Following this review, the NPS formed partnerships with each of these agencies.
Partnerships will be the key to achieving the program objectives; each organization brings a unique set of
complementary strengths and interests. Partnering also offers a means for data dissemination and
archiving as well as technical support and assistance. In 2004, six sites were installed in the three parks
with more installations scheduled for 2005 and 2006.
MTNCLIM 2005 THEME: Paleoclimatology and Paleoecology; TALK
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES FROM MULTIPLE-TREE
RING PROXIES
WATSON, EMMA (1); LUCKMAN, BRIAN (2); PEDERSON, GREG (3); AND WILSON, ROB (4)
(1) Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Ontario,
Canada, (2) Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London Ontario, Canada, (3) U.S.
Geological Survey – Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center - Glacier Field Station, Glacier National
Park, West Glacier, MT, and Big Sky Institute – Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, (4) School of
Geosciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
The varied topography and landscapes of the Canadian west afford a unique opportunity to sample and
develop tree-ring chronologies sensitive to different climate conditions from within close proximity. They
also provide multiple sources of proxy climate data at varying timescales and resolution. This has
allowed the development of a detailed history of climate and environmental changes for the region and in
this paper we discuss selected results from this research. Initial work throughout the Rockies led to the
development of a glacial history spanning the last millennium based on tree-ring dating, lichenometry and
14
C dating. Though by its nature incomplete, biased and censored the glacial record provides a
framework against which more continuous proxy records may be validated. Dendroclimatic studies have
now allowed the reconstruction of changes in precipitation and temperature in the central Canadian
Rockies. We also present more recent work which has sought to examine variability in streamflow. The
broad network of moisture and temperature sensitive chronologies has allowed us to begin studying more
complex variables that integrate seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. Winter, summer and
net mass balance reconstructions have been developed for Peyto Glacier in Banff National Park, Alberta.
These records are 322 yrs in length and offer a continuous insight into glacier variability over the LIA that
was not available previously. The net mass balance reconstructions correspond well with the dated
moraine record for the central Canadian Rockies and indicate that prolonged periods of both wet winters
and cool summers are required for glacier advance. Periods of positive net balance generally correspond
with or proceed terminal moraine development in the region in the early 1700s and mid-19th century.
Cumulative net mass balance for Peyto Glacier is consistently negative after 1883. These mass balance
reconstructions can be compared with similar records developed for Glacier National Park further south
and thereby begin to address broader questions on the timing and scale of glacier advances of the past
300 years throughout this portion of the Rocky Mountains.
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Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice and Water Resources; TALK
THE “TEFLON BASIN” MYTH DEBUNKED: MOST SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS “OLD” WATER AND
NOT “NEW” WATER
WILLIAMS, MARK (1); LIU, FENGJING (2); AND WIREMAN, MIKE (3)
(1) University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, (2) University of California, Merced, (3) Environmental Protection
Agency
New research shows high-altitude aquifers honeycomb parts of the Colorado Rockies, trapping snowmelt
and debunking the myth that high mountain valleys act as “Teflon basins” to rush water downstream. In
much of western North America, snow and snow melt provides the primary means for storage of winter
precipitation, effectively transferring water from the relatively wet winter season to the typically dry
summers. A common assumption is that high-elevation catchments in the western United States behave
like "Teflon basins" and that water released from seasonal storage in snow packs flows directly into
streams with little or no interaction with geologic or biologic materials.
We determined source waters and flowpaths in the Green Lakes valley of the Front Range using isotopic,
geochemical, and hydrometric data in 2- and 3- component hydrograph separations along with endmember mixing analysis (EMMA). EMMA results showed that much of the water released from the
seasonal snowpack infiltrated into subsurface reservoirs and that old groundwater contributed almost
50% of flow on the rising limb of the hydrograph and 80% on the recession limb. Thus most of the water
sampled from North Boulder Creek during the runoff months was “old groundwater” that had been stored
in subterranean mountain catchments.
Similar studies near Leadville, Colo., show that high-mountain groundwater is dominated by snowmelt
that is locked underground for years or decades. Measurements of stable and radiogenic isotopes of
snow, streams, springs, and groundwater near Leadville, CO show that groundwater was dominated by
infiltrating snowmelt with a residence time of years to decades. This research shows that water from snow
pack replenishes high-altitude groundwater reservoirs, pooling underground rather than rushing
downstream toward the plains.
We are seeing that snowmelt is re-charging the hydrologic systems in the mountains, pushing old
groundwater from subsurface reservoirs into the rivers and streams. The common perception that water
stored in mountain snow packs runs immediately into streams and rivers is probably wrong, and the
Teflon basin myth is incorrect.
18
Speaker Abstracts (Contributed)
Poster Abstracts
alphabetical list by first author last name
19
Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 THEME: Climate Variability: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Restoration; POSTER
RESPONSE OF ALPINE VEGETATION AND GLACIAL EXTENT TO REGIONAL CLIMATE
PATTERNS: IN THE HENGDUAN MOUNTAINS OF YUNNAN, CHINA
BAKER, BARRY (1,2); RINGLER, TODD (3); AND MOSELEY, ROBERT (4)
(1) TNC Climate Change Initiative, Boulder, CO 80302, (2) Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
80523, (3) Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, (4) TNC Yunnan Great Rivers Project,
Kunming, Yunnan, PRC
We present results of repeat photographs taken over a ninety-year period (1913-2003) documenting
changes in alpine vegetation and glaciers in the Hengduan Mountains of northwestern Yunnan, China. In
addition, our analyses of historical climate station data show that mean annual temperature in the last two
decades of the 20th century has been increased at a rate of 0.6oC/10 yr and may be a primary driver of
changes documented in these photographs. We explore the connections between changes in alpine
vegetation and glacier recession in northwestern Yunnan and regional climate change by analyzing 40
years of ECMWF reanalysis data. The reanalysis data is a blending of ground-based observations,
satellite retrievals, and predictive weather models. While the reanalysis data is global in extent, we limit
our analysis to the region of southwestern China. By looking at decadal trends in surface temperature,
upper-air temperature, and precipitation, we will determine whether large-scale climate models, such as
the ECMWF reanalysis, can be used to help explain the widespread glacier recession and alpine
vegetation changes we have observed in northwestern Yunnan.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; POSTER
PLAN FOR A SIERRA NEVADA HYDROLOGIC OBSERVATORY: SCIENCE AIMS, MEASUREMENT
PRIORITIES, RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES AND EXPECTED IMPACTS
BALES, R (1); DOZIER, J (2); FAMIGLETTI, J (3); FOGG, G (4); HOPMANS, J (4); KIRCHNER, J (5);
MEIXNER, T (6); MOLOTCH, N (7); REDMOND, K (8); RICE, R (1); WARWICK, J (8)
(1) University of California, Merced, CA, (2) University of California, Santa Barbara, (3) University of
California, Irvine, (4) University of California, Davis, (5) University of California, Berkeley,(6) University of
California, Riverside, (7) University of Colorado, Boulder, (8) Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV
In response to NSF’s plans to establish a network of hydrologic observatories, a planning group is
proposing a Sierra Nevada Hydrologic Observatory (SNHO). As argued in multiple consensus planning
documents, the semi-arid mountain West is perhaps the highest priority for new hydrologic
understanding. Based on input from over 100 individuals, it is proposed to initiate a mountain-rangescale study of the snow-dominated hydrology of the region. Nested within this largest scale will be 1,0005,000 km2 sub-basins originating in the Sierra Nevada. The SNHO objective is to provide the necessary
infrastructure for improved understanding of surface-water and ground-water systems, their interactions
and their linkages with ecosystems, biogeochemistry, agriculture, urban areas and water resources in
semi-arid regions. The SNHO will include east-west transects of hydrological observations across the
Sierra Nevada and into the basin and range system, and latitudinal transects that span much of the
variability found in the semi-arid West. At least one transect will include agricultural and urban landscapes
of the Great Central Valley. Investments in measurement systems will address scales from the mountain
range down to the basin, headwater catchment and study plot. The intent is to provide representative
measurements that will yield general knowledge as opposed to site-specific problem solving of a unique
system. The broader, general science question posed by the planning group is: How do mountain
hydrologic processes vary across landscapes, spanning a range of latitudes, elevations and thus climate,
soils, geology and vegetation zones? Embodied are additional broad questions for the hydrologic science
community as a whole: (i) How do hydrologic systems that are subjected to multiple perturbations
respond? (ii) How do pulses and changes propagate through the hydrologic system? (iii) What are the
time lags and delays of stresses in different systems? (iv) How can the predictive ability for these
responses be improved? The water resources question is then “how can new information inform decisionmaking aimed at achieving water resources sustainability?” The planning group is soliciting participation
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Poster Abstracts
from the wider community with a stake in mountain hydrology and related fields, in order to develop a
focused yet broadly useful infrastructure that will accelerate science scientific progress for years and
decades to come.
MTN CLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; POSTER
DOCUMENTING TWENTIETH CENTURY GLACIER CHANGE WITH REPEAT PHOTOGRAPHY IN
THE SIERRA NEVADA, CALIFORNIA
BASAGIC, HASSAN J.; FOUNTAIN, ANDREW G.
Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, 97211
Alpine glaciers are important indicators of climate trends within a region and play a significant role in the
hydrology of alpine ecosystems. The Sierra Nevada of California contains approximately 497 alpine
glaciers and perennial ice features. These glaciers provide an opportunity to determine regional
responses to warming global temperatures over the past century. Historical photos of glaciers taken by
early explorers, land surveyors, and park rangers in the late 19th century and early 20th century are
valuable records of past conditions. Repeat photography of glaciers is a useful way to determine how
these Sierra Nevada glaciers and perennial ice features have changed through time. During the summer
of 2003 and 2004, over 52 repeat images were collected from ten glaciers located throughout the Sierra
Nevada. Comparisons of the repeat photography reveal that all ten of the glaciers have experienced a
reduction in ice volume and surface extent over the past century. For example, the surface area of Lyell
Glacier’s west lobe, in Yosemite National Park has been reduced by 30%, and the smaller east lobe has
been reduced by 70%. These results suggest that topographic controls strongly influence individual
glacier response to regional climate change.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoclimatology & Paleoecology; POSTER
GREAT BASIN TREE-RING RECORDS FROM LOWER-FOREST-BORDER SITES
BIONDI, FRANCO (1); STRACHAN, D.J. SCOTTY (1); KOZUBOWSKI, TOMASZ J. (2); AND
PANORSKA, ANNA K. (2)
(1) DendroLab, Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, (2) Department of
Mathematics and Statistics, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557
In the Great Basin of North America, long records of fire frequency, drought, and species distribution are
important not only for fire management, but also for restoration efforts aimed at reducing the recent
expansion of piñon-juniper woodland into sagebrush and other types of vegetation. Ecotonal
environments characterized as lower forest border sites are ideally suited for tree-ring reconstructions of
hydroclimatic variability. Piñon trees from about 10 different sites in the Great Basin were sampled to
develop a network of moisture-sensitive chronologies spanning the past few centuries. Principal
component analysis was used to identify climatic signals, and to develop spatially explicit records of past
wet and dry episodes. Applications of the tree-ring network to water resources research are investigated
using stochastic models of episode duration and magnitude that can produce probabilistic estimates for
the likelihood of severe and sustained drought.
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Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 THEME: PALEOECOLOGY & PALEOCLIMATOLOGY; POSTER
A DIATOM RECORD OF LATE-HOLOCENE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE
BRACHT, BRANDI B.; FRITZ, SHERI C.; STEVENS, LORA R.
University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Geosciences, Lincoln, NE 68588
Long-term limnological and ecological changes in the Rocky Mountain region can be caused by
changing climate. Here we use changes in the diatom species composition of a sediment core from
Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park to infer changes in limnological conditions driven by climate
change. Sediment samples from long cores, spanning the past 2000 years, were analyzed for diatom
assemblage changes. Throughout this period, planktonic diatoms dominate, but changes in species
dominance indicate varying nutrient levels over time. These changes in the lake’s nutrient
concentrations, particularly phosphorus, are believed to have climatic drivers. The duration of water
column mixing, which is related to temperature and wind strength, determines the extent of nutrient
recycling from deep waters.
From 50-800 yr B.P., Stephanodiscus minutulus dominates, a species that blooms during
isothermal mixing. This suggests long cool springs with extensive regeneration of phosphorus from the
hypolimnion. Prior to 800 yrs B.P., S. minutulus is absent, and C. bodanica and Cyclotella michiganiana
are the dominant species. These species are characteristic of lower nutrient concentrations during times
of stable stratification and are interpreted to reflect warm summers with long periods of thermal
stratification. These changes in species abundances suggest long-term trends in seasonal length and
climate variation. The most dramatic change in species assemblage occurs just prior to the onset of the
Little Ice Age, as shown by the sudden shift in species dominance.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; POSTER
VEGETATION AND FIRE HISTORY FROM THE BIOLOGICALLY DIVERSE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS,
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON
BRILES, CHRISTY E. (1); WHITLOCK, CATHY (2); AND BARTLEIN, PATRICK (1)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene OR 97402, (2) Department of Earth
Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman MT 59717
The Siskiyou Mountains are among North America’s most floristically diverse regions. The diversity of the
Siskiyou Mountains is thought to be a result of the local environmental heterogeneity (i.e., topography,
climate, geology). While this may be true, it is not well understood how past climate fluctuations have
influenced vegetation and fire patterns. An analysis of pollen, plant macrofossils, and high-resolution
macroscopic charcoal data from Bolan Lake in southwestern Oregon was used to reconstruct the
postglacial vegetation and fire history of the region. The results suggest that elevational ranges of
dominant tree species apparently shifted since the end of the last ice age in response to climate changes.
For example, present-day high-elevation species had their ranges shifted as much as 800 m down slope
in the late-glacial period when conditions were cooler than present. Calocedrus decurrens and Quercus
grew at least 500 m above their present range in the early Holocene during a warmer and drier interval.
Sub-millennial scale fluctuations in Tsuga mertensiana, Picea and Abies between 13,000 and 10,900 cal
yr BP suggest a return to cool conditions following a late-glacial/early Holocene warming and may be
associated with climatic variations during the Younger Dryas interval. The early Holocene was
characterized by short-term fluctuations in Pinus and Cupressaceae associated with changes in fire
frequency. In the late Holocene, cool wet conditions allowed Abies and Picea to become more abundant
and resulted in lower fire frequency than before. In addition, a comparison of vegetation histories across
the Pacific Northwest suggests that plant communities shifted latitudinally as well and that the Siskiyou
Mountains have been a biogeographic transition zone between the Pacific Northwest and Klamath floras
over the last 14,500 cal yr BP.
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Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate Variability: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Restoration; POSTER
INTEGRATED CLIMATE ASSESSMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE U.S. SOUTHWEST
COMRIE, ANDREW C. (1); LENART, MELANIE (2); AND GARFIN, GREGG M. (2)
(1) University of Arizona, Dept. of Geography, Tucson, AZ 85721, (2) University of Arizona, Institute for
the Study of Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721
The Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) is one of several NOAA-funded Regional
Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA) projects established across the United States. CLIMAS
conducts climate assessment projects on a wide range of natural and social science topics for a variety of
areas in the Southwest (e.g., wildfire, streamflow, urban water supply, health, ranching). The CLIMAS
project has recently initiated research on an integrated regional climate assessment in the mountains of
the Southwest that combines cross-cutting and multi-sectoral assessments in one geographic domain.
The study area is focused on the forested high country of east-central Arizona; it covers the upper Little
Colorado River basin and neighboring areas, including the Mogollon Rim, the Arizona White Mountains
and adjacent parts of New Mexico. Major activities include forestry, ranching, and tourism, and the area
includes a number of towns experiencing rapid amenity-based growth. Climate-related issues and
impacts in the region include water supply, adaptive forest management, wildfire and the wildland-urban
interface. Furthermore, decision-making in the region is complicated by multiple objectives and
jurisdictions, such as federal and state agencies, tribal lands, and urban areas. We present an overview
and initial results of the integrated regional assessment for this mountain environment, highlighting
methods and approaches, selected examples of findings, and lessons learned for those wishing to do
integrated assessments in mountain environments elsewhere.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; POSTER
ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION EFFECTS ON WATER QUALITY IN HIGH ELEVATION LAKES OF THE
TETON RANGE, WYOMING, U.S.A.
CORBIN, JENNIFER; WOODS, SCOTT
Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, College of Forestry and Conservation, University
of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812
Atmospheric deposition is the primary cause of acidification in lakes and streams in the United States,
Western Europe and other developed regions. Mountainous watersheds are especially vulnerable
because of their sparse vegetation, short growing season, poor soil development, and the presence of
extensive areas of exposed bedrock. Studies are needed to elucidate long-term trends in high elevation
lake water quality and to determine the factors contributing to sensitivity to acidification. In 2002, twelve
lakes in the Teton Range of northern Wyoming were sampled to determine their sensitivity to acidification.
Step-wise multiple linear regression was used to identify the basin characteristics controlling ANC and
other water quality parameters.
Seven of the twelve lakes had ANC concentrations < 100µeq L-1, indicating high sensitivity to
acidification. Comparisons with previous studies indicated minimal changes in ANC since 1996, but the
ANC in one lake had declined by 50 % since 1985. The regression model explained 86.5 % of the
variance in ANC, and showed that lakes in basins with granitic or metamorphic bedrock are most
sensitive to acidification, particularly when the basin contains a high proportion of young (Holocene)
debris. Lakes that are underlain by limestone are less sensitive to acidification, regardless of the
presence of young debris. Basins containing glaciers or with significant quantities of talus may experience
seasonal increases in NO3- concentrations associated with meltwater flux and nitrification in talus soils,
respectively, resulting in temporarily higher sensitivity to acidification.
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Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 THEME: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; POSTER
TRENDS IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE OF SNOW VS RAIN IN THE WESTERN US, 19492001
DETTINGER, MICHAEL (1); KNOWLES, NOAH (2); AND CAYAN, DANIEL (1)
(1) USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224, (2) USGS, Menlo Park, CA
92045
Precipitation can be either a boon to western water resources, flood, and land management or a floodgenerating disaster, depending on whether it falls as rain or snow. Logistic regressions of daily
occurrences of snow from 1949-2001 at 172 cooperative weather stations with concurrent temperatures
and with year provide new measures of how snow occurrence varies with temperature and altitude across
the region, and how the relations between snowfall and temperature have trended during the past 50
years.
Both temperatures and the temperature dependence of snowfall have trended in ways that increased the
fraction of rainy (vs snowy) days in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada (PNW/SN) since the 1950s,
and both temperatures and temperature dependences have changed in ways that have muddied rain vs
snow trends in the southern Rockies (SR) of Colorado and New Mexico. Not surprisingly, across the
western US, snow falls most often on days with minimum temperatures below freezing, but when
minimum-temperature thresholds--“even-odds temperatures,” Teo, at which half of the wet days yield
snow and half yield only rain--are determined for each station, the Teo range from about -8ºC to 0ºC.
Snowfall frequencies in the PNW/SN change abruptly from all snowy days at temperatures just colder
than Teo to all rainy days at slightly warmer temperatures. However, stations in the SR have broader
ranges of temperatures under which some days yield snow and others rain. The well-documented
warming in the region since the 1950s has yielded, at 86% of the stations, trends for more wet days (+6%
overall) to have had minimum temperatures warmer than Teo recently. The temperature dependence of
snowfall also has trended significantly at 62% of the stations, with snowfall in PNW/SN requiring colder
minimum temperatures (at every probability level) now than in the 1950s and a converse trend in SR.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; POSTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE ELEVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY IN THE
UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN THE LAST 50 YEARS
DIAZ, H.F.; AND EISCHEID, J.K.
NOAA, Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO 80305
Project funded by Western Water Assessment (WWA)
A first step in quantifying the past and present climate variability in the Upper Colorado River basin is
the assessment of what types of meteorological/hydrological data are available their length of records and
the quality of these records.
Station records were compiled from several sources for the parameters precipitation and
maximum/minimum temperatures. The two primary sources for data are NCDC’s cooperative observing
network and SNOTEL. Data from NCDC undergoes extensive quality control in addition to QC performed
here at the Climate Diagnostic Center (CDC). The SNOTEL data is acquired from the National Resource
Conservation Service (NRCS); quality control is accomplished here at CDC. Unfortunately, close
examination of the SNOTEL temperature records revealed that few maximum/minimum temperature
records are not long enough to be useful for the current analysis. We have also investigated the use of
PRISM (the highest quality spatial climate data set currently available) data available from the Spatial
Climate Analysis Service (SCAS) at the University of Oregon. In order to check the fidelity of the PRISM
data, we collocated the station data and performed comparisons of climatological values as well as
relationships through time. The results are very encouraging when we examined both the traditional
24
Poster Abstracts
station records and the SNOTEL records. For the latter we found no correlation coefficient less than 0.74
and 75% of all correlations were greater than 0.90 for monthly total precipitation.
The elevational pattern of 55-year (1950-1004) precipitation trends are shown to vary seasonally. Below
7K feet DJF precipitation has increased over the last 50 years; above 7K feet DJF precipitation has
decreased with the rate of changing becoming larger the higher the elevation. In contrast, summer
precipitation has been increasing at all elevations (save those areas below 4K feet) particularly those
areas above 9K feet. Temperature trends for the 55-year period are generally positive throughout the
elevational range with minimum temperatures increasing at a faster rate than maximum temperatures.
We also present results for the last 25 years (1980-2004) in addition to analysis of sub-regions within the
Upper Colorado River basin.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; POSTER
EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS – EMPIRICAL
EVIDENCE FROM THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN INITIATIVE NETWORK
PETERSON, DAVE (1); FAGRE, DAN (2); MCKENZIE, DON (1); ALLEN, CRAIG (3); BARON, JILL (4);
STEPHENSON, NATE (5)
(1) USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Seattle, WA, (2) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain
Science Center, West Glacier, MT, (3) USGS Fort Collins Science Center, Los Alamos, NM, (4) USGS
Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO, (5) USGS California Science Center, Three Rivers, CA
The effects of variability and directional trends in climate during the past century are measurable in forest
ecosystems at several locations in the Western Mountain Initiative network. In the American Southwest,
prolonged drought has caused dieback and reduced productivity in large areas, with the potential for
severe fires due to fuel accumulations. In the Sierra Nevada, drought has also affected forests, with
reduced tree vigor and increased mortality. Mixed conifer forests in this region are also stressed by
elevated levels of oxidant air pollution. In the Pacific Northwest, subalpine forests have experienced rapid
in-fill of subalpine meadows throughout the region. In the Northern Rocky Mountains, subalpine forests at
altitudinal treeline have also filled in and transitioned from krummholz to a more upright growth form at
some locations. In the central Rocky Mountains, no significant changes are apparent, although highelevation forests are subject to elevated levels of nitrogen deposition. There appears to be a significant
trend of increased tree growth throughout the West, focused primarily on high-elevation forest and
secondarily on Pacific coastal forest – perhaps a signal of carbon dioxide fertilization. Potential signals of
the effects of climatic change must be differentiated from effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which
is an important multi-decadal influence on biophysical variability in Western mountain ecosystems.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate & Disturbance; POSTER
PROBABILITY OF EXTREME DAILY PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND THE CLIMATE OF CALIFORNIA
GERSHUNOV, ALEXANDER (1); PANORSKA, ANNA (2); AND CAYAN, DAN (1,3)
(1) Scripps Institution of Oceanography, (2) University of Nevada, Reno, (3) U.S. Geological Survey
The state of California is a topographically, climatically, and hydrologically complex region. It contains
both the lowest and the highest points in the contiguous United States. Like its topography, the climate of
California is defined by extremes. In many parts of the state, it does not rain frequently, but when it does,
it pours. This highly variable weather translates to pronounced precipitation variability on interannual and
decadal timescales. California is also a well observed and heavily modeled region with important
hydrological concerns stimulated by growing population pressure and early signs of anthropogenic
climate change. Daily precipitation observations at hundreds of stations across the state are used to
illustrate the importance of high frequency extremes in determining annual precipitation amounts in light
of topographic complexity. Here, it is especially important to correctly model the probabilities of high
25
Poster Abstracts
frequency precipitation extremes. However, we show that traditional probability density functions (PDFs)
used to model daily precipitation, all of them with exponentially decaying tails, do not provide for enough
probability for the occurrence of heavy to extreme events. The degree of this distortion depends on
peculiarities of regional climates strongly associated with topography. Using an original approach, we
show that precipitation probability tails at the vast majority of California stations follow a power law, i.e.
they are better described by heavy-tailed rather than exponentially-tailed family of PDFs. This result has
important implications for modeling California climate and hydrology. We will illustrate this point by
investigating the relationship between the probability structure of daily precipitation extremes on the one
hand and large-scale climate forcing (e.g. ENSO and PDO) on the other. The role of topography in
providing spatial organization to this relationship will be specifically considered.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate & Disturbance Regimes; POSTER
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEB SITE FOR ANALYZING TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS
OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS
HICKE, JEFFREY A.
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80526
The effect of climate change on humans and the natural environment is a major scientific and societal
concern. Although climate change consists of different aspects, the behavior of temperature is most
certain as a result of high-quality long-term measurements as well as confidence in projected scenarios
over the next century. Changes in temperature have numerous impacts to humans and ecosystems,
including health effects, food security, shifts in community composition, changes to ecosystem structure
and function, and altered species migrations and ranges. Although mean annual temperature is useful as
an index of temperature change, organisms respond to the seasonal timing of temperature change in
different ways. Evaluating climate change in mountainous regions is particularly difficult as a result of the
paucity of long-term stations situated within these areas. An approach to exploring temperature changes,
described in this work, is to aggregate station records over ecoregions that represent similar ecosystems
at intermediate spatial scales. By also considering elevation ranges within ecoregions, temperature
variability over the last 100 years in mountain regions can be studied. Here I describe a web site
designed to analyze temperatures from several data sources, including US Historical Climate Network
and Snowpack Telemetry stations as well as 0.5° gridded data from the Vegetation Analysis and Mapping
Project (VEMAP). The web interface allows a user to specify either a station/grid cell nearest an input
location or an ecoregion (with an elevation range); the temporal resolution (annual, monthly, or seasonal);
and the time period of interest (from 1870-2005). Plots are then generated showing the temperature time
series as well as diagnostic information about the selection such as the number of stations and their
elevations. Examples of analysis illustrate similarities and differences across mountainous regions of the
western US. The web site can be accessed at www.nrel.colostate.edu/~jhicke/climate_data.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; POSTER
CLIMATE FROM SMALL MOUNTAIN GLACIERS: A NEW MODEL OF GLACIER-CLIMATE
INTERACTION AT THE MOUNTAIN RANGE SCALE
HARPER, JOEL T. (1); HUMPHREY, NEIL F. (2)
(1) Department of Geology, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, (2) Department of Geology and
Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071
Mountain glaciers offer insight to high elevation climate through their continuous recording of mass
balance via changes in area and volume. Little success, however, has been made in the development of
quantitative transfer functions between glacier geometry and climate parameters. This is largely due to
difficulties in simulating the processes of glacier motion which redistribute ice mass from high elevation to
lower elevation. Glacier flow models tend to be computationally demanding and therefore limited to cross
26
Poster Abstracts
sections or small reaches of glaciers. We present a new numerical model that simulates the
accumulation of snow and ice mass across a mountain landscape, and redistribution of the mass by
glacier flow. This cellular automata model can be run at the scale of an entire mountain range. We have
used the model successfully to investigate high elevation precipitation patterns in the Annapurna region of
Nepal [Harper and Humphrey, 2003, GRL]. Here, the mass flux of ice in glaciers indicates that enhanced
orographic precipitation reaches a maximum well below the summits of the highest peaks; essentially no
snow accumulates on the topography above an elevation of 6200 m. Current work is focused on using
the ice flux of small mountain glaciers to investigate past and present climate of three regions of western
North America: 1) Glacier National Park, Montana, 2) Chugach Mountains, Alaska, and 3) Mount Baker,
North Cascades, Washington State. Model simulations, constrained by field measurements and remote
sensing data, reveal past and present climate conditions of these mountain regions. In addition,
scenarios for future climate are being used to force the model to elucidate the likely impacts on small
mountain glaciers.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; POSTER
THE PROPOSED CROWN OF THE CONTINENT HYDROLOGIC OBSERVATORY
HARPER, JOEL T. (1); WOESSNER, WILLIAM W. (1); RUNNING, STEVEN W. (2)
(1) Department of Geology, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812; (2) College of Forestry and
Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula MT 59812
We are proposing a Crown of the Continent node within the NSF-sponsored Hydrologic Observatory
Network. This will be a large-scale field facility located in north-western Montana that will generate multidisciplinary characterization of the landscape necessary to advance the environmental sciences (i.e.,
hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, geomorphology, limnology). The Crown of the Continent
Hydrologic Observatory (CCHO) is 280 km on a north-south axis and 180 km on an east-west axis. The
CCHO will encompass a diverse hydrologic landscape including high mountain areas, large pristine
watersheds, inter-mountain valleys undergoing rapid human development, a 95 km2 regulated reservoir
and 510 km2 lake. The region has topographic relief of over 2,339 m, and spans high alpine to arid
climatic zones and a range of biomes. Rivers flow from a triple divide to the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of
Mexico, and Hudson Bay – hence the name “Crown of the Continent”. The area spans the continental
divide and has large gradients in all factors that control hydrologic processes (e.g., climate, topography,
vegetation, geology, and land use factors). Consequently, CCHO is very well suited for basic research
regarding the fundamental understanding of large scale hydrologic processes, especially those of
mountain regions. Since the region spans the climatic transition from maritime-influenced to intermountain to continental zones it shows significant interannual variability with strong signatures from
ENSO and PDO. In addition, the basin’s pristine areas and rich glacial-climate history offer unique
opportunities for isolating the impacts of long term climate change on hydrologic processes. As part of
the CCHO core data program, a large network of high elevation sensors will be installed across the study
area. Data from these sensors will enable unique investigations of mountain climate processes such as
precipitation and orographic processes, snow hydrology, and glacier mass balance.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology and Paleoclimatology; POSTER
A FIRE HISTORY ARCHIVE: THE INTERNATIONAL MULTLIPROXY PALEOFIRE DATABASE
HARTMAN, MICHAEL, AND WOODHOUSE, CONNIE A.
NOAA Paleoclimatology Branch, National Climatic Data Center and the World Data Center for
Paleoclimatology, Boulder, Colorado, 80305
The International Multiproxy Paleofire Database (IMPD) is an archive of fire history data derived from
natural proxies. The IMPD has been established to provide a permanent repository for high-quality
paleofire records from around the world. The archive includes fire history records based on both tree-ring
and charcoal-sediment data, describing fire regimes at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Tree fire
27
Poster Abstracts
scars and stand establishment dates provide temporally and spatially precise, short-term (100s to 1000s
of years) reconstructions of fire events. Charcoal in lake sediments provides long-term (1000s to 10,000s
of years) reconstructions of fire events with coarser temporal and spatial resolution. Alluvial fan-based
charcoal fire records provide additional fire history information. Fire is an important process in terrestrial
ecosystems, modulating the susceptibility of vegetation to climate change, disease, and other
disturbances. The growing body of high-quality fire-history data being developed provides an opportunity
to investigate the role of fire in ecosystems and the feedbacks that link fire, climate, vegetation, and
management decisions. The goal of the IMPD is to archive and make available fire history data from
tree-ring and sediment data for both scientific and management needs. The current data holdings are
available from the IMPD web site at: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/impd/. Data are searchable by site
name, location, date, and investigator, as well as through an online mapping tool. Paleofire data are also
being solicited through online data submission forms via the IMPD web site. The IMPD is sponsored by
NOAA and the USDA, and is housed at the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate & Disturbance Regimes OR Water, Ice, and Water OR Resources
Climate Variability: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Restoration; POSTER
GLOBAL CHANGE AND MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS: AN INQUIRY-BASED LEARNING EXERCISE.
HINCKLEY, THOMAS M.(1); FRIDLEY, JAMES (1); BRUBAKER, LINDA B. (1); HUSBANDS, MARK (1)
AND TRAVERS, VIRGINIA (1)
(1) College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Environmental science and natural resource education must be placed within the context of globalization,
global climate change and multiple bio-physical, cultural, social, economic and political constraints. In
response to this challenge and to paradigm shifts in how students learn, we have made major structural
and conceptual changes in the undergraduate curriculum that have led to a set of junior core courses that
(1) turn the curriculum-upside down, (2) feature the world class outdoor laboratory of the Puget Sound
region and (3) emphasize inquiry-based learning. Three of these core courses deal with the continuum
from pocket parks in downtown Seattle to Pinus albicaulis stands in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness Area.
These courses are grounded in interdisciplinary, group projects. A final, major exercise in one of the
courses is featured. This exercise first introduces students to an imaginary watershed located on the
eastside of the Cascades. An elaborate set of background material on this watershed’s geological,
vegetative, climatic, Native American, European settlement and current history is provided. The
watershed’s physical and biological features, including a relief map, are created in such a way that it
represents no known watershed, yet has the integrated, but unique attributes of any watershed spanning
from the Canadian Border to the Columbia River. The watershed has private and public landowners.
Students then identify all watershed stakeholders (i.e., from Earth Justice to a “local” Chamber of
Commerce), chose one stakeholder to represent, and complete a detailed profile summarized as a
factsheet. “Real-world-issues” then materialize in the form of press releases, a press conference and
newspaper articles. Student group focus now changes to confronting and dealing with these issues (e.g.,
climate change related bark beetle infestation, mine development, invasive insects, Native Americans
exercising treaty rights, etc.).
MTNCLIM 2005 THEME: PALEOECOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY; POSTER
HIERARCHICAL CLASSIFICATION AND MAPPING OF RIVERINE SYSTEMS
JENSEN, MARK E.
USDA Forest Service, Regional Office, Missoula, MT 59807
Hierarchy theory provides a needed framework for aquatic system classification and mapping because it
facilitates scaled descriptions of ecosystem components and identification of the linkages that exist
between different scales of ecological organization. Hierarchical approaches to ecosystem
28
Poster Abstracts
characterization also simplify the description and prediction of complex ecological pattern/process
relations across multiple scales of system organization. For example, the types of channel units found in
a given environment are often constrained by the stream types in which they are nested, which in turn,
are primarily determined by the valley bottom and geoclimatic watershed types in which they are nested.
In a similar manner, the physical/environmental processes that create these aquatic patterns (e.g.,
regional floods, sedimentation) are also hierarchically constrained by geoclimatic settings such as
landforms, climate zones, and lithology. Recognition of these relations greatly simplifies the prediction of
finer-scale patterns, such as channel units and stream types, in the classification, mapping and
monitoring of aquatic systems. In this presentation, I will describe a hierarchical classification of riverine
systems following the USDA Forest Service framework for aquatic system description. Additionally, I will
provide an example of this approach for selected areas in Montana and northern Idaho.
MTNCLIM 2005 THEME: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; POSTER
TRENDS IN SNOWFALL VERSUS RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
KNOWLES, NOAH (1); DETTINGER, MICHAEL (2); AND CAYAN, DANIEL (2)
(1) USGS, Menlo Park, CA 92045, (2) USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 920930224
The western U.S. depends heavily on snowpack to help store its wintertime freshwater endowment into
the drier spring and summer months. A well-documented shift towards earlier runoff can be attributed to
1) more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, and 2) earlier/faster snowmelt. The present study
addresses the former, showing a regional trend during the period 1949-2001 toward smaller ratios of
winter-total snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to winter-total precipitation (P). The most pronounced
reductions in this ratio have occurred in the Sierra-Nevada (SN) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW), with
more mixed changes (but still predominantly reductions) in the Rockies. The trends are attributable to a
shift toward less SFE rather than to a decrease in overall precipitation, except in the Southern Rockies
(SR) where both snowfall and precipitation have increased, with more muddled trends in their ratio.
Trends in the annual timing of the snowfall season have been weak, though trends in its duration are
significant and exhibit a clear east-west pattern with shorter snowfall seasons in SN and PNW and longer
seasons elsewhere, particularly in SR. At the monthly scale, the downward trends in SFE/P are most
pronounced in January on the west coast and in March regionwide, corresponding well to warming trends
in monthly average wet-day temperatures during the same period. The January SFE/P trends are of
particular significance in the SN and PNW, where January is a prime snow-producing month.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; POSTER
SENATOR BECK BASIN MOUNTAIN SYSTEM OBERVATORY - SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS,
COLORADO
LANDRY, CHRIS; AND BACHMAN, DON
Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, Silverton, CO 81433
The Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies has completed initial development of a 'snow (and
mountain) system observatory' at the Senator Beck Basin Study Area (SBBSA) in the western San Juan
Mountains of Colorado, under Special Use Permit from Uncompahgre National Forest. The SBBSA is
located at 37°54' N and 107°43' W, spans 290 ha, faces generally south and east, and forms a headwater
catchment for the Uncompahgre River. Landcover includes talus and tundra reaching 13,510' (4,118m)
and sub-alpine forest as low as 11,000' (3,353m). A lobate rock glacier is present. Infrastructure has
been developed to support investigations of snow as a driving agent in mountain system behaviors, and
to monitor hydrologic and biologic responses. Two micro-met sites, at 12,200' (3,719m) and 11,050'
(3,368m), are equipped with energy balance, wind, air and snow temperature, humidity, and snow depth
sensors. The lower site also includes an automated precipitation gauge and barometer. Soil monitoring
29
Poster Abstracts
sensors will be installed at both sites in summer 2005. A third micro-met site monitors wind speed and
direction and air temperature and humidity on a nearby summit. A broad-crested weir equipped with a
staff gauge, and automated transducer, pH and EC/temperature sensors, has been installed at the basin
pour point. All sites are linked by radio-telemetry. A plant community baseline study was conducted in
2004 and monuments were established for repeat studies. Planning for a GLORIA multi-summit site in
the SBBSA is underway, in collaboration with CIRMOUNT partners and the Mountain Studies Institute.
Current research in SBBSA is investigating the radiative and hydrologic effects of desert dust depositions
in the alpine snowpack (NSF Grant No. ATM-0431955). The CSAS seeks to host and conduct integrative
snow and mountain system research and to collect long-term datasets at the SBBSA.
MTNCLIM2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; POSTER
LONG-TERM CLIMATE MONITORING NETWORK at the MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION,
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO
LOSLEBEN, MARK (1,2); CHOWANSKI, KURT (1,2); ACKERMAN, TODD (2)
(1) University of Colorado, INSTAAR, Mountain Research Station, Nederland, CO 80466, (2) University of
Colorado, INSTAAR, LTER
The value of long-term monitoring of mountain climate cannot be overstated. CU’s Mountain Research
Station operates a climate monitoring network of eleven stations in the Front Range of Colorado, ranging
in elevation from 3814m at the Continental Divide, and eastward to 2199m. Monitoring at four stations
began over half a century ago. Time series, trends, and climate extremes are presented, and a ‘dry’ zone
phenomenon is discussed and supported with data. Temporally, there is a significant positive
precipitation trend in the alpine, but not in the upper montaine forest, and a positive temperature trend in
the upper montaine forest, but not in the alpine.
A ‘dry’ zone may be unique to lee slopes where lee-side cyclogenisis occurs during the passage of low
pressure (storm) systems. This ‘dry’ zone will be located between higher elevations where westerlydriven orographic precipitation dominates, and lower elevations, which receive more easterly upslope
precipitation. Since winter circulation conditions are the primary cause of the ’dry’ zone, the effect on
snowpack would be more pronounced than on summer rains.Such a ‘dry’ elevational precipitation band is
theoretically probable on all lee slopes of mountain ranges with long north-south geographical extents in
the westerly wind dominated mid-latitudes.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate & Disturbance; POSTER
CONTEMPORARY WEATHER PATTERNS IN SOUTHWESTERN HIGH ELEVATION FORESTS:
POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON FOREST INSECT POPULATION DYNAMICS
LYNCH, ANN M.
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Flagstaff AZ 86001-6381
There are indications that forest insect populations have been influenced by recent climate trends. A
multitude of species is incurring outbreaks in high elevation and high latitude forests. These outbreaks
have been more extensive and severe than previously observed, further north or at higher elevations than
previously seen, or of species that were previously unknown or innocuous. Low tree vigor caused by
excessive forest density and several years of drought is the likely primary cause of contemporary bark
beetle outbreaks in pine forests, but is not sufficient to explain either the plethora of insect outbreaks in
the higher elevation sites or the extent and severity of the beetle outbreaks. Analysis of non-urban highelevation data from NCDC indicates that mean annual temperature above 2100 m has increased about
1°C since 1940. This seemingly small increase in temperature has dramatically altered the seasonality of
temperature limits associated with insect populations. Winter is shorter and minimum temperatures are
warmer. Spring is earlier, warmer and less frosty. The typically dry and windy spring and early summer
30
Poster Abstracts
period that precedes the summer rains is now longer and warmer. Winter and spring precipitation have
also decreased.
The longer frost-free period and warmer spring temperatures may produce additional generations of
damaging insects, especially in Ips species, tip moths and early-season aphids, or alter the timing of
insect generations relative to the onset of summer moisture and have undoubtedly contributed to droughtrelated bark beetle outbreaks. Winter minimum temperatures are probably inadequate to limit some high
elevation bark beetle populations and Geometrid defoliators. Outbreaks of autumn- and winter-feeding
aphids are probably related to prolonged autumns and failure to reach limiting winter temperatures.
Insect population dynamics that have changed with warmer temperature regimes are not likely to be
reestablished once the drought ends. Insect population dynamics are sensitive to small changes in
climate, and, with wildfire, may cause rapid changes to forest vegetation character and population
dynamics.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, & Water Resources; POSTER
TROPICAL PERUVIAN GLACIERS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE: FORCING, RATES OF CHANGE AND
IMPACT TO WATER SUPPLY
MARK, BRYAN, MARK G. (1); MCKENZIE, JEFFREY M. (2)
(1) The Ohio State University, Department of Geography, Columbus, OH 43210, (2) Syracuse University,
Department of Earth Sciences, Syracuse, NY 13210
Tropical glaciers are intriguing and presently rapidly disappearing components of the cryosphere that
literally crown a vast ecosystem of global significance. They are highly sensitive to climate changes over
different temporal and spatial scales and are important hydrological resources in tropical highlands.
Moreover, an accurate understanding of the dynamics and climate response of tropical glaciers in the
past is a crucial source of paleoclimatic information for the validation and comparison of global climate
models. I have studied both present-day glacier recession and field evidence of past episodes of
deglaciation in Perú to test hypotheses related to this important climatically forced process in the
developing Andean region. Modern glacier recession raises the issues of the nature of climatic forcing
and the impact on surface water runoff. While rates of contemporary glacier recession appear to be
accelerating, careful analysis of the timing and volumetric extent of deglaciation from Late Glacial and
Holocene moraine positions provides a historical comparison with important implications for
understanding glacial-to-interglacial transitions. My research incorporates three specific parts: (1) an
analysis of the spatial variability and climatic forcing of late 20th century glacier recession in the Queshque
massif of the southern Cordillera Blanca, Peru; (2) an evaluation of the hydrological significance of glacial
meltwater with respect to streamflow in the Cordillera Blanca region; and (3) an evaluation of the rate and
extent of deglaciation during the late-Pleistocene and Holocene compared to modern glacier recession in
the Cordillera Vilcanota/Quelccaya. I will review my results in the context of outlining a vision for using
glacial-environmental assessment as a focal point to investigate both physical and human dimensions of
climate change.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; POSTER
INFLUENCE OF HYDROCLIMATE ON CHARACTERISTICS OF SEASONAL AND DIEL
HYDROGRAPH EVOLUTION IN SNOWMELT-DOMINATED RIVER SYSTEMS
MATTER, MARGARET A. (1); AND GARCIA, LUIS A. (2)
(1) Ph.D. Candidate, Colorado State University, Department of Civil Engineering, Fort Collins, CO,
(2) Associate Professor of Civil Engineering and Director of the Integrated Decision Support (IDS) Group.,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523
Preliminary results of a study pertaining to snowmelt-dominated rivers in the Colorado River Basin (CRB)
will be presented which demonstrate that, between fall and early spring, hydrograph form and streamflow
31
Poster Abstracts
variability evolve characteristically in response to precipitation and temperature associated with
hydroclimatic conditions. Physical features of hydrograph evolution were characterized (using USGS
streamflow data), and results indicate that beginning in fall, differences in seasonal hydrograph form and
magnitude of streamflow variability correlate strongly with relative magnitude and timing of the upcoming
snowmelt runoff. From about late January through March, streamflow increases at higher rates in dry
years than in wet years, coinciding with shifts in the timing of winter/early spring seasonal flow volumes to
earlier in the season in dry years and later in wet years. Hydroclimatic conditions are also reflected in
patterns of flow variability beginning in the fall. Positive, or increasing, changes in streamflow are more
frequent and/or higher in magnitude in wetter years than drier years. The results suggest, and recent
advances in understanding effects of primary climate modes on precipitation in the CRB support, that
essential hydroclimatic conditions that drive snowpack development and initiate snowmelt set-up by fall
and persist into early spring.
The results of this research are expected to be earlier indications of relative magnitude (i.e., average, dry,
wet) and timing (e.g., early, late) of forthcoming snowmelt runoff that are equally or more reliable than
skilled forecasts. The results of this research may be combined with skilled water supply forecasts to
improve forecast reliability and extend lead time for planning more efficient and effective water use
strategies. Research results will also provide new insights into the influence of dominant atmospheric
forcings on precipitation and streamflow in the CRB as well as the combined effects of basin changes
(e.g., anthropogenic activities) on precipitation/streamflow relationships.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; POSTER
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAIN-ON-SNOW EVENTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES
MCCABE, GREGORY J. (1); CLARK, MARTYN P. (2); AND HAY, LAUREN E. (1)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, Denver, Colorado, 80225, (2)Center for Science and
Technology Policy Research, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0488
The temporal and spatial variability of the monthly frequency of rain-on-snow (ROS) events for 119 sites
in the western United States (US) are characterized for the period 1987-1999. The ROS events were
identified using daily snow-telemetry (SNOTEL) data and were defined as days when precipitation
occurred at a site and snowpack decreased. Results indicate that for most sites analyzed the largest
number of ROS events occurred during the months of March through June when snowpacks are
prevalent and temperatures become warm enough for rain to occur rather than snow. During these
months with the greatest frequency of ROS events there is little correlation with elevation. However,
during the winter months, the frequency of events is strongly related with elevation, such that the largest
number of events occurs for low elevation sites. In these instances winter temperatures at only low
elevation sites are warm enough for rain to occur. Correlations between the frequency of ROS events and
spring/early-summer temperature and precipitation indicate that the frequency of ROS events is greatest
for periods that are cool and wet. In addition, the periods with high ROS event frequencies are related to
periods with increased zonal atmospheric flow over the western US which increases the intrusion of moist
air from the North Pacific Ocean into the western US. Because the time series analyzed are short (13
years in length) trend analyses were not performed. However, the time series of ROS events suggest that
there has been an increase in the frequency of ROS events in the western US. This increase in ROS
frequency appears to be related to increased frequency of rain events rather than to increased
temperatures.
32
Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Water, Ice, and Water Resources; POSTER
EXTENDING GREATER YELLOWSTONE AREA SNOTEL RECORDS USING SYNOPTIC
CLIMATOLOGY
MCGINNIS, DAVID L. (1); MCCABE, GREGORY J. (2)
(1) Montana State University-Billings, Billings, Montana, 59101, (2) U.S. Geological Survey, Denver
Federal Center, Denver, Colorado, 80225
Snow-telemetry (SNOTEL) observations are useful to study the spatial and temporal variability of daily
snow accumulations in the western United States (US). These data, however, have only been recorded
for about the past two decades. Estimates of these data for earlier periods would be useful for hydrologic
and related environmental studies. Previous research has shown significant and meaningful relations
between atmospheric pressure patterns and surface hydrologic variables in the western US. As a first
step in the development of models to estimate SNOTEL-site precipitation for periods before observations
began, Self-Organizing Map neural networks (SOMs) were used to characterize 700-hectoPascal
atmospheric pressure patterns over the western US for the years1948-2000. Relations were identified
between the resultant atmospheric pressure patterns and the spatial and temporal variability of snow
events in the Greater Yellowstone Area. This information is used to develop reconstructions of daily and
monthly snowfall at each SNOTEL location. Observed monthly and seasonal snow water equivalent totals
are used to determine the reliability of the reconstructions.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; POSTER
LONG-TERM FIRE HISTORY IN GREAT BASIN SAGEBRUSH RECONSTRUCTED FROM
MACROSCOPIC CHARCOAL IN SPRING SEDIMENTS, NEWARK VALLEY, NEVADA
MENSING, SCOTT A. (1); LIVINGSTON, STEPHANIE (2); AND BARKER, PATRICK (3)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV; (2) Reno, NV; (3) Bureau of Land
Management, Reno, NV
We use macroscopic charcoal analysis to reconstruct fire history in sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata var
wyomingensis and A. tridentata var. tridentata), in Newark Valley, Nevada. We analyzed charcoal at
continuous 1 cm intervals, and pollen at ~263 yr intervals in a core spanning the last 5500 yr. A charcoal
peak in the historic period was associated with a >1400 ha fire dated to 1986 that burned in the
watershed. We reconstructed the pre-historic fire history by inferring fires from similar charcoal peaks
that were significantly greater than the background charcoal accumulation. Our results suggest the fire
regime is climate and fuel driven. During periods of wetter climate, sagebrush increased and fires were
more abundant, and during extended dry periods when sagebrush decreased, fires were less frequent.
Our method does not allow calculation of a fire return interval, however our results support models that
estimate a mean fire return interval of up to a century in Artemisia tridentata var wyomingensis. The
charcoal record indicates that within the historic period, fires have increased. This contrasts with
pinyon/juniper studies that indicate an expansion of woodland associated with fewer fires in the historic
period. We suggest that in the central Great Basin, a regime of frequent fires in sagebrush that limits
woodland expansion is true for the sagebrush/woodland ecotone, but in sagebrush dominated valleys
with lower fuel loads, fires have always been less frequent. Protecting sagebrush-dominated valleys from
frequent fire would appear to be consistent with the pre-historic fire regime.
33
Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Mountain Monitoring Networks; POSTER
RESEARCH AND SYNTHESIS IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
NYDICK, KOREN (1); WILLIAMS, MARK (2); COOPER, DAVID (3); CHIMNER, ROD (4); RABY, KIM (2)
(1) Mountain Studies Institute, Silverton, CO, (2) Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of
Colorado, Boulder, CO, (3) Forest, Rangeland, and Watershed Stewardship, Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, CO, (4) Natural Resource and Ecology Laboratory, Fort Collins, CO.
The San Juan Mountains are a geologically diverse, mid-latitude range that combines high-elevations
with a bimodal-precipitation regime (snowmelt and summer monsoon) and a high radiation snow climate.
The range is home to rare habitats (such as alpine fens) and species (arctic mosses, relicts of the last ice
age) and contains major biogeographic boundaries. The headwaters of the Rio Grande, San Juan,
Dolores, Gunnison, and Animas Rivers flow from the San Juans and provide water for lowland
communities in several states. Despite this importance and uniqueness, the San Juans are relatively
unstudied compared to other mountain ranges in the United States.
The Mountain Studies Institute (MSI) is a research and education institution and high-altitude field
station established 2002 in Silverton, Colorado. MSI promotes, facilitates, and directly participates in
research efforts in the San Juan Mountains. Its core research program focuses on three themes: 1)
water and ecosystem function, 2) biodiversity and conservation, and 3) synthesis and sustainability. A
main goal of this program is to understand how human activity alters natural ecosystems and to provide
information to land managers, government officials, educators, and the public. Current projects include
“Water quality data for local decision support system” and “San Juan fen inventory and assessment”.
Plans for the future include expanded study of fen health, carbon cycling, and hydrology; source water
and flow path investigations; GLORIA (Global Observation Initiative in Alpine Environments) site
implementation in collaboration with the Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, and State of the San
Juans Ecosystem Assessment and Forecasting for Sustainability.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; POSTER
TREE-RING BASED ESTIMATES OF GLACIER MASS BALANCE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FOR THE PAST 300 YEARS
PEDERSON, GREGORY T. (1,2); WATSON, EMMA (3); LUCKMAN, BRIAN H. (4); FAGRE, DANIEL B.
(1); GRAY, STEPHEN T. (5); GRAUMLICH, LISA J. (2)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey – Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center - Glacier Field Station, Glacier
National Park, West Glacier, MT, (2) Big Sky Institute – Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, (3)
Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario,
Canada, (4) Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London Ontario, Canada, (5) U.S.
Geological Survey - Desert Laboratory, Tucson, AZ
Global recession of alpine glaciers since the Little Ice Age indicates widespread, rapid climatic change;
however, little is known of the detailed history of glacier fluctuations in the period prior to the LIA
maximum. We present a comparison of two attempts to provide more complete records by developing
proxy mass balance series for Peyto Glacier in Alberta (Watson and Luckman 20041) and the glaciers in
Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana (Pederson et al. 20042) using tree-ring data. Instrumental and
proxy climate records indicate strong influence of long-term trends (centennial length) and interdecadal
variability on seasonal and net mass balance estimates. Twentieth-century records show similar summer
maximum temperatures and winter snowpack (the primary controls of glacier mass balance) in these two
regions, and therefore major differences between these reconstructions reflect different reconstruction
strategies. Over the 20th century winter mass balance is controlled primarily by ocean-atmosphere
teleconnections related to conditions in the north Pacific (i.e. PDO). However, the selection of different
proxies for winter balance teleconnections results in dissimilar reconstructions prior to ca. 1800 probably
due to the partial capture of PDO related variability or changes in the teleconnection patterns. Long-term
trends in ablation related to increasing maximum temperature are captured by the Peyto reconstruction,
but absent in the GNP record. Results indicate that the disparity between summer proxies is due to
34
Poster Abstracts
mixed precipitation and temperature signal contained in the GNP tree-ring series that may not
consistently track summer melt. Examination of the instrumental record suggests that increasing minimum
temperatures may be as or more important than changes in maximum temperatures over the latter half of
the 20th century. Though careful interpretation and record selection is required, tree-ring based proxy
records of climate allow the reconstruction of continuous records of glacier changes. In the absence of
long-term instrumental records, they permit an exploration of the relative contribution of changes in
temperature and precipitation to net mass balance.
1
Watson, E. and Luckman, B.H. 2004. Tree-ring-based mass-balance estimates for the past 300 years at
Peyto Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Quaternary Research, 62: 9-18.
2
Pederson, G.T., Fagre, D.B., Gray, S.T. and Graumlich, L.J. 2004. Decadal-scale drivers for glacial
dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Geophysical Research Letters, 31: L12203,
doi:10.1029/2004GL019770.
MTNCLIM 2005 Mountain Monitoring; Water, Ice, Water Resources; POSTER
MONITORING CONDUCTIVITY IN HIGH ELEVATION STREAMS DRAINING THE CENTRAL SIERRA
NEVADA
PETERSON, DAVID H.(1); SOLOMON, MADELINE (2); SMITH, RICHARD (1); HAGER, STEPHEN (1);
MURPHY, FRED (1); STEWART, IRIS (1); HUBER KING (1)
(1) USGS, Water Resources Division, Menlo Park, CA, (2) University of California, Berkeley, CA
Here we present a preliminary analysis of high resolution discharge and conductivity measurements from
several central Sierra Nevada streams. In general, stream conductivity (a measure of total dissolved
solids, salinity) shows a strong inverse relation with discharge. In the central Sierra Nevada, climate is the
major control on river and stream salinity dilution via runoff (discharge per unit-area of the watershed
above the river gage), while geology is the major control on river salt supply via the soil-to-bedrock ratio
of the watershed. As snowmelt discharge increases, river conductivity decreases because the salinity of
snowmelt is low compared to base flow salinity. In landscapes with low soil-to-bedrock ratios, salinity is
relatively low during low and high flow. In landscapes with high soil-to-bedrock ratios, but with the same
runoff, salinity is relatively high during high and low flow, and increases further with decreases in runoff
(dilution). The interaction of climatic and geologic controls causes both broad similarities and specific
differences in the seasonal and diurnal stream salinity records. The competing effects of salinity supply
and dilution rates are evident in a comparison of high-flow and low-flow salinity variations in different
watersheds and in the hysteresis evident in plots of salinity vs. river discharge. Monitoring and analysis of
the salinity verses discharge behavior of high elevation rivers can contribute to the understanding of the
individual contributions of snowmelt, precipitation, and groundwater to mountainous river and stream
discharge and its susceptibility to climatic change.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Disturbance; POSTER
20th CENTURY FIRE-CLIMATE LINKAGES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
POWER, MITCHELL J. (1); BARTLEIN, PATRICK (1); AND WHITLOCK, CATHY (2)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, (2) Department of Earth
Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717
To aid in the interpretation of fire activity on annual-to-decadal time scales in the Northern Rocky
Mountains, area-burned data are compared to instrumental records of climate, NCEP Reanalysis, and
-2
-1
lake sediment charcoal influx (particles cm yr ). The role of interannual variations in climate on regional
area-burned variations is illustrated by using the NCEP reanalysis data set (1948-2004) and seasonal
temperature and precipitation anomalies calculated using the CRU 0.5-degree gridded monthly climate
data set (‘CRU TS 2.0’ data set (Mitchell et al. 2003), 1901-2000). Composite-anomaly maps were
created to compare years with large fire extents in northwestern Montana to those with low extents.
35
Poster Abstracts
Years with large areas burned in the Northern Rocky Mountains, include 2000, 1988, 1931, and 1910,
while those with small areas burned include 1997, 1993, 1990, 1982). Comparisons of 500 mb GPH and
500 mb Omega (vertical velocity) anomalies for large area-burned years suggest that during recent high
area-burned years (2003, 2000) in Montana, higher-than-normal 500mb geopotential heights in summer
prevail over the eastern Pacific and northwestern North America and produce faster westerlies, a better
expressed ridge over the eastern north Pacific and western North America, and suppressed precipitation.
Over the 20th century, ears with large area-burned are characterized by variable temperature anomalies,
but with a general tendency for positive anomalies to occur at times during the period from April to
September. In contrast, precipitation values are generally highly negative particularly for the June-August
interval. Years with small areas burned are characterized by negative temperature anomalies during the
interval from April through August, and positive precipitation values particularly in the June-August
interval. Charcoal reconstructions before AD 1900 show some correspondence with reconstructed PDSI
(Cook et al., 2004) for the Northern Rocky Mountains.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology and Paleoclimatology; POSTER
A QUANTITATIVE CHIRONOMID-BASED RECONSTRUCTION OF LATE PLEISTOCENE-EARLY
HOLOCENE TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA NEVADA, CA
PORINCHU, DAVID F. (1); MACDONALD, GLEN M. (2); MOSER, KATRINA A. (3); BLOOM, AMY B. (4)
(1) Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, (2) Departments of
Geography and OBEE, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, (3) Department of Geography, University of Utah,
Salt Lake City, UT 84112, (4) Department of Geography-Geology, Illinois State University, Normal, IL
61790
One of the lines of evidence increasingly utilized in multi-proxy paleolimnological studies is the
Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera). Also known as non-biting midge flies, chironomids are ubiquitous and
frequently the most abundant insects found in freshwater ecosystems. Recently, researchers have
determined that chironomids have differing tolerances and optima in relation to surface lake water
temperature. The recognition of this relationship, together with the development of robust and
ecologically meaningful statistical methods has lead to a dramatic increase in the number of
paleolimnological studies using chironomids as a proxy for past climatic conditions.
Chironomid and stratigraphic analyses of a lake sediment core recovered from a high-elevation lake in
the central Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., was undertaken to assess chironomid community
development during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and to quantitatively reconstruct the thermal
regime that existed during this interval. The reconstructed surface water temperatures suggest a
minimum warming of approximately 4.7oC occurred during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. The
chironomid-based temperature reconstruction suggests that the immediate post-glacial period (14,800 –
13,700 cal yr BP) was characterized by extremely cold surface water temperature, likely < 5oC. Between
13,700 and 12,000 cal yr BP surface water temperatures rose approximately 2oC, reaching a post-glacial
high of 15.5oC at 12,000 cal yr BP. The early Holocene was characterized by warmer conditions with
surface water temperatures fluctuating between 15.5oC and 16.5oC. This study substantiate the use of
chironomids in deriving quantitative estimates of past thermal regimes, which should prove quite valuable
in improving our understanding of late Quaternary climates in the Sierra Nevada and the surrounding
region.
36
Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 THEME: Monitoring; POSTER
PUGESEK, BRUCE H.
Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT 59717-3492
The Priority Ecosystem Science Program (PES) is a continuation of a USGS research program formally
known as Place-Based Studies. New vision and goals accompany the name change. Among them is a
vision to establish national leadership in multidisciplinary, integrated research, a role for which the USGS
is uniquely adapted as a consequence of the wide range of scientific and support disciplines employed
within our agency. The ultimate goal is to provide scientifically valid research data which managers and
clients may use to conserve vital ecosystems. The program embraces a holistic research approach that
seeks understanding at a broader system level as opposed to the isolated components of a system. Here
I describe our research in the Greater Yellowstone Area, specifically research designed to address the
impacts of Jackson Lake Dam on the riparian zone along the Snake River. The Snake River riparian
zone hosts important habitat for Grand Teton National Park’s wildlife and it is in a state of continual
change, largely as a consequence of the interaction water and substrates. Today’s existing habitat is
largely a product of long term processes that have been radically altered with the construction of the dam.
Our research seeks to understand the future of riparian zone in the contemporary setting. We will
integrate biological, hydrology, GIS, and geomorphology research in order to develop a model of the
future land cover of the riparian habitat. The research will also incorporate an adaptive management
approach that will assist managers in their efforts to attain of Park goals.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Climate & Disturbance Regimes; POSTER
BROADSCALE PATTERNS AND SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY OF WESTERN UNITED STATES
CLIMATE
SHINKER, JACQUELINE J. (1); AND BARTLEIN, PATRICK J. (2)
(1) Department of Geography, Geology, and Anthropology, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, IN
47802, (2) Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403
Monthly climate normals (1971-2000 monthly averages) for 2781 stations in the western United States
obtained from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) CLIM81 product, are used to illustrate the
spatial variations in the seasonal cycle of climate. Maps of temperature and precipitation, their average
intermonthly changes, and the local timing of annual maxima or minima, show three scales of variation:
(1) broadscale patterns related to the seasonal cycle of insolation and the configuration of hemisphericscale atmospheric circulation features; (2) mesoscale patterns related to location on the continent and to
the influence of specific circulation features like those involved in the North American monsoon; and (3)
smaller-scale spatial variations related to the mediation of the influence of large-scale circulation by local
physiography. While most stations throughout the western U.S. have temperature maxima in July, a
delay occurs at stations along the coast and interior Washington, northern Idaho, and Montana. A seesaw pattern of precipitation maximum is evident between coastal areas and the interior and southwest
associated with the seasonal timing of precipitation and the North American Monsoon. Regions of high
spatial heterogeneity in the timing of precipitation include the northern Rocky Mountains, Utah, Arizona
and north western Montana. The superimposition of these three scales of spatial variability leads to steep
gradients, and in some regions, considerable spatial heterogeneity, in the seasonal cycles of precipitation
and surface water- and energy-balance variables.
37
Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; POSTER
A 13,000-YR HIGH-RESOLUTION RECORD OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOLOCENE CLIMATE CHANGE
STONE, JEFFERY R.; AND FRITZ, SHERI C.
University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Geosciences, Lincoln, NE 68588
Continental-scale patterns of drought frequency in western North America recently have been associated
with multi-decadal changes in large-scale ocean-atmosphere indices, including Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO). However, studies of the effects of decadal-scale variability in ocean-atmospheric
processes in terrestrial settings throughout the Holocene often are limited by relatively low sample
resolution or poor chronological control. Here we present a 13,000-yr high-resolution record of drought
variability inferred from fossil diatom assemblages recovered from a lake in northwestern Montana. We
find pervasive drought during the 20th century to be associated strongly with multi-decadal phase
changes in the PDO. Our sub-decadal sampling resolution imparts high levels of confidence to the use of
statistical applications that examine temporal changes in effective moisture at the multi-decadal scale.
Spectral analyses of diatom-inferred drought frequencies allow us to conclude that the influence of multidecadal phase changes in the PDO have played a dominant role in regional hydroclimate throughout the
Holocene. However, our record also shows that this relationship has undergone fundamental state
changes throughout the lake’s history, including long periods throughout the Holocene where the cyclic
recurrence of drought appears to break down.
MTNCLIM 2005 Themes: Mountain Monitoring Networks, Water, Ice, and Water Resources;
POSTER
THE GREAT SALT LAKE BASIN HYDROLOGIC OBSERVATORY – A COMMUNITY RESEARCH
PLATFORM FOR MOUNTAIN CLIMATE SCIENCES
TARBOTON, DAVID G. (1); JOHNSON, WILLIAM P (2); MARKS, DANNY (3); LUCE, CHARLIE (4);
LINK, TIM (5); AND OTHERS ON THE GSLBHO PLANNING GROUP
(1) Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84321, (2) University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, (3) USDA-ARS
Northwest Watershed Research Center, Boise, ID, (4) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research
Station, Boise, ID 94701, (5) University of Idaho, Moscow, ID.
Through the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Sciences, Inc. (CUAHSI) NSF
plans to establish a network of hydrologic observatories. The mountain west is a high priority area for
detailed observations because of the sensitivity, uncertainty and vulnerability of mountain systems and
rapid human population growth with critical dependence of human and natural ecosystems on mountain
water resources. The Great Salt Lake basin serves as a microcosm for much of the western U.S. in that
the hydrologic system is driven by snowmelt in the mountains that supplies water to the relatively arid
valleys. The region is dominated by nonlinear interactions between snow deposition and loss in the
mountains, streamflow and groundwater recharge at high and mid-elevations, and evaporation from the
desert floor. A planning group is working on a multi-million dollar long term plan and proposal for the
Great Salt Lake Basin Hydrologic Observatory which would include a focus on mountain and snow
hydrology. Hydrologic Observatories would be shared national facilities and our planning group
welcomes participation and suggestions from the wider community with a stake in mountain and snow
hydrology and related fields. This presentation will describe the physical aspects of the Great Salt Lake
Basin, the scientific questions and research opportunities that the GSLBHO would provide, and the
measurement infrastructure contemplated for this hydrologic observatory. A multi-scale nested sampling
design is being proposed to allow for the integration and quantification of spatial and temporal
heterogeneity in mountain environments while exploiting synergy through co-location of measurements
for different disciplinary fields of hydrologic science. The presentation will focus on mountain and snow
aspects of this observatory with the intention of prompting feedback as to how the observatory can be
best designed to meet the needs of mountain and snow researchers.
38
Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; POSTER
PALEOWILDFIRE CHARACTERISTICS AND BEHAVIOR: DIAGENETIC CHANGES OCCURRING IN
VASCULAR BONE DURING CREMATION BY WILDFIRE REVEAL ANCIENT FIRE BEHAVIOR
WEGWEISER, MARILYN D.
Draper Museum of Natural History, Buffalo Bill Historical Center, 720 Sheridan Avenue, Cody, Wyoming
Paleowildfire behavior can be ascertained by examining changes that occur in vascular bone during
cremation. Vascular bone of ancient animals that were alive or recently dead during cremation exhibits
color and mineralogical changes consistent with those changes that occur in modern vascular bone.
Burned bone becomes inert, remaining unchanged during fossilization processes and thus, provides a
record of ancient wildfire behavior in which physical changes to the bone occurred. Morphological
changes in bone indicate the potential range of fire behavior from a ground or brush fire, to a crowning
fire. In some instances, extreme fire behavior can be implied from the morphometric changes to bone.
Paleolatitude of Wyoming’s Big Horn Basin in the Late Cretaceous (70-66.5 my) was close to present day
latitude, therefore, it is reasonable to suspect this region was equally vulnerable to ancient Pacific Ocean
current influences on climate that may have resulted in seasonal wildfire. Fossil evidence of paleowildfires
from northwestern Wyoming resulted in the comparison of modern cremated vascular bone with dinosaur
bone found associated with fossilized charcoal and burned wood bearing fire scars. Late Cretaceous
dinosaur bone from the Meeteetse Formation of Wyoming exhibits morphological changes that are similar
to those found in modern vascular bone that has undergone changes during cremation. Implications from
the changes, including crescentic fractures, reorganization of osteocytes, and the glassification of CaPO4,
suggest a ground fire of either long duration with temperatures in a sustained range of 650°C to 800° C,
or a crowning fire with extreme fire behavior and temperatures in excess of 1200° C. Identification of
sedimentary layers containing paleowildfires provides a powerful tool for better understanding cyclicity of
wildfire in association with other climatic signals of regional patterns, provides subtle clues to the ecology
of ancient trophic environments, and provides a chronostratigraphic tool for regional correlation.
MTNCLIM 2005 THEME: CLIMATE AND DISTURBANCE REGIMES; POSTER
TRENDS IN CLIMATE SINCE 1970 AND THE RESPONSE IN HIGH ELEVATION FOREST WILDFIRE
REGIMES IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WESTERLING, ANTHONY L. (1); CAYAN, DANIEL R. (1,2); HIDALGO, HUGO (1)
(1) Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224, (2) USGS, La Jolla, CA 92093
Since the mid-1980s, there has been a dramatic increase in the area burned in wildfires in mountain
forests of the western United States, with mean annual area burned nearly three and a half times higher
compared to the preceding one and a half decades. We have compiled a database of large fires in
western North America and analyzed relationships between concurrent and antecedent climate and the
annual frequency of very large fires. Analyzing fire activity by elevation and coarse vegetation
characteristics, we find increased fire activity is most pronounced in forests at higher elevations and
latitudes, and is strongly correlated with interannual variability in average spring and summer
temperatures. Higher temperatures are associated with an earlier snowmelt, a longer dry season, and
greater fire activity in montane forests of the western United States. We examine the links between
temperature, vegetation and fire using streamflow records from snowmelt-dominated unimpaired
streams, soil moistures from the VIC hydrologic model, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
values from AVHRR satellites.
39
Poster Abstracts
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; POSTER
DIATOM RECORDS OF HOLOCENE ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATIC CHANGE IN
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
WESTOVER, KARLYN S. (1); GAVIN, DANIEL G. (2); FRITZ, SHERILYN C. (1); HU, FENG SHENG (2);
ROSCHEN, LAUREN A. (2)
(1) Department of Geosciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 68588-0340, (2) Department of Plant
Biology, University of Illinois-Champaign/Urbana, 61801-3750
Sediments of three lakes, spanning a latitudinal gradient and situated within the Interior Wetbelt of
southeast British Columbia, have been analyzed for independent records of Holocene climate and
vegetation history in order to evaluate the role of climate as a control on range expansion of Tsuga
heterophylla and Thuja plicata. Holocene climate reconstructions are based on multiple proxies, including
diatom and biogenic silica stratigraphies presented here.
Stratigraphic variability in the diatom records reflects lake response to changes in water balance,
catchment development, and atmospheric inputs of silica. Details of lake response vary as a
consequence of local differences in catchment geology. In the north, the sediments of Gerry Lake are
characterized by abundant carbonates, and a low-diversity, planktonic diatom assemblage over the past
8000 years. Dissolution of diatom frustules in Gerry Lake prior to 8000 cal yr BP and between 4000 and
3000 cal yr BP may indicate a more negative water balance. Biogenic silica concentrations are highest in
the past 2500 years, suggesting the recent period has been the wettest. Eleanor Lake is characterized by
high diatom diversity. Reduced biogenic silica concentrations after 5500 cal yr BP are inferred to reflect
decreased productivity and nutrient availability. In the south, Mirror Lake was characterized by a benthic
flora until 7000 cal yr BP. Increased planktonic species abundance after 7000 cal yr BP is interpreted as a
deepening of the lake, with high lake levels for the past 6000 years. The data from Gerry and Mirror
Lakes are consistent with reconstructions of Holocene climate in south-central BC, which suggest a shift
to moister conditions ca. 7000 to 6000 cal yr BP. The inferred climate shift substantially predates the
expansion of T. heterophylla and T. plicata at these sites, suggesting non-climatic factors played a
significant role in range expansion of these trees.
MTNCLIM 2005 Theme: Paleoecology & Paleoclimatology; POSTER
MASS MORTALITY AND POST-PALEOWILDFIRE EROSION: EVIDENCE FROM A LATE TRIASSIC
DEATH ASSEMBLAGE IN NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
ZEIGLER, KATE E. (1); TANNER, LAWRENCE H. (2); AND LUCAS, SPENCER G. (3)
(1) Dept. of Earth & Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, (2)Dept. of
Geography and Geoscience, Bloomsburg University, Bloomsburg, PA, (3) New Mexico Museum of
Natural History and Science, Albuquerque, NM
The Snyder quarry is an unusual Upper Triassic vertebrate fossil locality located in north-central New
Mexico. The site has yielded the remains of a wide-variety of organisms, ranging from terrestrial and
aquatic vertebrates to aquatic invertebrates, as well as substantial amounts of charcoalized wood.
Taphonomic, facies and petrographic analyses indicate that this bonebed was deposited in the aftermath
of a moderate to high temperature ground fire. The primary bone-bearing layer is a matrix-supported
conglomerate that is interpreted as the deposit of a hyperconcentrated flood that swept animal remains
and downed trees into a topographic low after a paleowildfire had occurred in the area. Scanning electron
and reflectance microscopy of the charcoalized wood indicate that the wood was subjected to
temperatures between 300 and 450°C. The Snyder quarry is among the first documented Triassic
wildfires and the first death assemblage definitively tied to a wildfire event. As such, it demonstrates that
wildfire events do leave geologic evidence that can be used to evaluate not only animal mortality, but also
rates of erosion and subsequent deposition in a post-fire landscape.
40
Poster Abstracts
Working Group Sessions
41
Working Groups
MTNCLIM 2005 Working Groups
Task-oriented Working Groups will have an opportunity to convene during the
MTNCLIM 2005 Conference. These five new Working Groups are intended to be
action-oriented, product-driven participation groups, rather than one-time issueidentification or general discussion sessions. Working Group leaders have volunteered
in advance and committed to ongoing leadership roles with the Groups. They will solicit
input and collaborations from participants with the intent of achieving concrete and
ongoing progress toward CIRMOUNT goals. Working Groups are intended to have
continuity beyond MTNCLIM 2005; individual Working Group meetings may be held in
the “odd years” between the biennial MTNCLIM conferences, and other opportunities
will be sought to advance goals.
The five Working Groups identified at present, and their leaders, are listed here, and
individual announcements follow (Climate Monitoring Announcement not yet available).
We invite MTNCLIM participants to browse these announcements, and join a group at
MTNCLIM 2005.
•
Mountain-Based Hydrologic Observatories and Observations for the 21st Century
Roger Bales, University of California, Merced, CA, & Mike Dettinger, USGS, La
Jolla, CA
•
North American GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative In Alpine Environments)
Connie Millar, USFS-PSW Research Station., Albany, CA, & Dan Fagre, USGS,
Biological Resources Division W Glacier, MT
•
Paleoclimatology & Water Resources Management: Time for an integrated
Paleo-Resource?
Connie Woodhouse, NOAA, Boulder, CO, & Franco Biondi, University of Nevada,
Reno, NV
•
CIRMOUNT, MRI and Mountain Climate Research Worldwide
Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative, Berne, Switzerland
•
Installing Climate Observation Networks
Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, & Mark Losleben,
University of Colorado INSTAAR, Nederland, CO
New Working Groups are welcome. For coordination and assistance in forming a new
group, please contact Connie Millar, cmillar@fs.fed.us.
42
Working Groups
MOUNTAIN-BASED HYDROLOGIC OBSERVATORIES
AND OBSERVATIONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
Point of Departure for MTNCLIM 2005 Working Group Discussion
Roger Bales (rbales@ucmerced.edu) and Mike Dettinger (mddettin@usgs.gov)
Like so many aspects of western-mountain climate science, the hydrology and hydroclimatology
of western mountains have not been monitored as intensively or extensively as will be
necessary to meet the challenges that climate variations, climate change, and a host of other
environmental stresses will bring in the 21st Century. With current funding limitations, every
opportunity to capture funding to improve high-altitude hydrologic observations and networks
must be seized; even within the funding opportunities that become available, a large measure of
innovation and craftiness will be required to stretch resources to provide as much observation
as possible.
Later this year, the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc.,
an NSF supported consortium, will select two initial hydrologic observatories (HOs) for long-term
funding for monitoring infrastructure and studies of surface-water, ground-water, and
hydroclimatic variables and processes to provide focuses for hydrologic advancements in this
century. Nationwide, a couple dozen local design teams (LDTs) have been preparing proposals
to compete for this funding. Several of the teams are focusing on western settings and most of
those teams necessarily will have to provide coherent and innovative plans for monitoring and
interpretation in western mountain settings.
During MTNCLIM, you are invited to join a working group led, for now, by leaders of several of
the LDTs for proposed HOs in western mountains, to discuss, contribute to, and perhaps even
affiliate with the approaches that they will be proposing to CUAHSI later this year. Team leaders
from the Sierra Nevada HO, the Pacific Northwest HO, the Flathead Basin HO, and other teams
will attend and will be looking for opportunities to increase the flow of ideas and opportunities for
innovative hydrologic observations in mountain settings both within the CUAHSI framework and
more generally. We hope that this working group will provide concrete opportunities for the HO
teams to increase the odds that CUAHSI will fund long-term observations in at least one of our
mountain settings, that MTNCLIM participants will be able to take advantage of these teambased efforts for participation or leveraging, and that this current proposal opportunity will
provide a kickoff point for continuing efforts by the CIRMOUNT/MTNCLIM community to develop
stratgeies to meet hydrologic monitoring needs in the western-mountain region.
43
Working Groups
NORTH AMERICAN GLORIA PROJECT
(GLOBAL OBSERVATION RESEARCH INITIATIVE IN ALPINE ENVIRONMENTS)
GLORIA International: http://www.gloria.ac.at/res/gloria_home/
Point of Departure for MTNCLIM 2005 Working Group Discussion
Connie Millar (cmillar@fs.fed.us) and Dan Fagre (dan_fagre@usgs.gov)
High mountain ecosystems are sensitive to climate variability and prone to be early indicators of
effects that will ripple through distant ecosystems. The Global Observation Research Initiative
in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) is an international research project, headquartered in Vienna,
whose goal is to assess long-term impacts of climate change on vegetation in alpine
environments worldwide. Standardized protocols direct selection of each node in the network,
called a target region, which consists of a set of four geographically proximal mountain summits
at elevations extending from treeline up to the nival zone. GLORIA’s multi-summit approach
capitalizes on the comparability afforded by highly standardized monitoring protocols and the
fact that alpine environments are similar and widely distributed worldwide. GLORIA specifies a
rigorous mapping and sampling design for data collection, site documentation, and data
archiving, with re-measurement intervals of five years.
Whereas over 30 target regions have been installed in six continents through the international
program, prior to 2004 none was completed in North America. In cooperation with the
Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT), three
GLORIA target regions were completed by September 2004, one in the Sierra Nevada,
California, one in the White Mountains, California, and one in Glacier National Park, Montana.
As the goals of GLORIA and CIRMOUNT overlap, CIRMOUNT is making a primary effort to
motivate installation of new target regions and development of a dense network of GLORIA
sites in western North America.
CIRMOUNT will move toward this goal by identifying high-priority areas in western North
America to fill the network; contacting and assisting potential leaders of new target regions;
assisting in site selection; botanical expertise, equipment sharing; protocol clarification; budget
estimation; archiving; data analysis; and coordinating integrated analysis among regions. A set
of webpages on the forthcoming CIRMOUNT website will provide useful information for those
anticipating and completing GLORIA installations. Fundraising may be leveraged with
CIRMOUNT’s collaboration. As more sites are installed and early baseline data compiled,
CIRMOUNT would sponsor focal workshops for comparing and integrating results and
conclusions about effects of elevation and climate on alpine flora. CIRMOUNT will also
encourage extended research opportunities at each region under the GLORIA “Master Station”
approach.
With the MTNCLIM working group, we hope to spread the word about the North American
GLORIA project, provide information on how to get started, identify new collaborators, and
promote new installations in summer 2005. We anticipate participation at MTNCLIM 2005 by
several scientists who have proposed new target regions this year.
44
Working Groups
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT:
TIME FOR AN INTEGRATED PALEO RESOURCE?
Point of Departure for MTNCLIM 2005 Working Group Discussion
Connie Woodhouse (Connie.Woodhouse@noaa.gov) and Franco Biondi
(fbiondi@unr.edu)
The rivers of the western U.S. provide water resources vitally important to economic and social
interests throughout the region. Water managers must balance the competing demands and
changing needs of expanding populations, and agricultural and natural ecosystems within the
constraints of a variable and limited water supply, interstate and international compacts, and the
uncertain impacts of global variability and change. Many operational water management
procedures and decision processes have traditionally consider only instrumental period
hydroclimatic variability with design specifications based on the 20th century range of
hydroclimatic extremes. This approach presumes that the range of flow in the 20th century
adequately represents the full range of variability. However, dendrochronological
reconstructions of annual runoff Upper Colorado River basin, for example, have demonstrated
that the instrumental record for this region does not represent the full range of natural variability.
Water managers in some parts of the western U.S. have started to seriously consider the
information provided by extended records of flow from tree-ring reconstructions.
Reconstructions are being used to place the recent drought into a long-term context and, in
some cases, as model input to test the robustness of water supply systems under a broader
range of drought conditions than afforded by gage records. The reconstructed streamflow
records have proven to be a useful addition to the toolkit water resource managers are using for
planning and decision making.
Tree-ring based reconstructions of streamflow exist for several major watersheds in the
western U.S. (e.g., Colorado, Sacramento, Columbia). However, there are likely many
watersheds of importance to water resource managers for which reconstructions of streamflow
currently do not exist. In addition, it should be recognized that tree-ring reconstructions of
streamflow for the distant past cannot take into account factors that change streamflow
measured at a certain point even when upstream precipitation remains the same, such as
stream channel profile (affected by incision, alluvial deposition, beaver activity, etc.), vegetation
cover (affected by plant species dynamics, wildfire, landslides, etc.), land use (due to human
activities, such as cattle or sheep grazing, clearcutting, crop production, urban development,
etc.), diversions and their return flow (caused by either natural or human agents). As a
community, we should start educating our audience to understand that the advantage of having
long tree-ring records can be enhanced by using a combination of empirical and mechanistic (or
model-based) approaches.
The goal of this workshop is to explore the interest and support for a integrated collaborative
effort to generate an up-to-date, spatially focused network of reconstructions to assist water
resource managers in long-term planning and scientists examining questions of hydrologic
response to climate change. The intent is not to usurp planned or current efforts, but to plan
how existing and future reconstructions, modeling results, and products could be integrated into
45
Working Groups
a comprehensive resource for water resource managers. Anyone who has an interest in this
subject, either from a scientific or water management perspective, is invited attend this working
group discussion. We will begin with a roundtable so that participants may introduce
themselves and their interests, then discuss the initiative described above.
46
Working Groups
CIRMOUNT, MRI AND MOUNTAIN CLIMATE RESEARCH WORLDWIDE
Point of Departure for MTNCLIM 2005 Working Group Discussion
Greg Greenwood (greenwood@scnat.ch)
The rhetoric of the MRI and CIRMOUNT is largely coincident, but what are the real points of
contact and collaboration between the global MRI and the US CIRMOUNT?
The goal of this workgroup is to specify one or more concrete actions over the next year that will
be of benefit to all parties and to outline next steps.
MRI has developed a strategy for its activities for the next three years, from which emerge
specific opportunities for interaction. But it is unclear which, if any, of these activities is central to
the achievement of CIRMOUNT goals, which are focused on the American West. While
individual CIRMOUNT participants might find some of these activities personally interesting,
there may be no good reason for CIRMOUNT as an institution to participate in any of them.
What is this strategy? The vision of MRI is a world in which more resources flow into rigorous
global change research programs that inform policy and management. How to get more
resources to flow toward these ends? The first leg of the strategy is participation in the
processes that produce funds through development of proposals and lobbying of funding
agencies. (Some would say that CIRMOUNT is at precisely this same step right now.) But,
however necessary, chasing money is not in itself sufficient and besides there a lot of other
people getting a lot of other money for a lot of different programs. Organizing an integrated
framework through conferences and workshops that harnesses these myriad programs is the
second leg. But of course, what hubris makes us think that we are central to this organizing
process? By informing researchers about their large community, the third leg of the strategy,
we build a community that can itself do a better job organizing its intellectual activity.
How do these "legs" ramify into discrete activities that might be of interest to CIRMOUNT?
What follows are a few ideas related to legs one and two. Maybe someone else can figure
possible projects under the information and community building heading beyond that which MRI
and CIRMOUNT are already doing.
Funding
MRI is attempting to organize a presentation on global change in mountain regions to IGFA (the
International Group of Funding Agencies for global change research). This presentation would
likely say that :
• mountains are barely second to the Arctic in terms of expected climate change,
• such change will affect vastly more people than in the Arctic,
• Switzerland has supported global change research in mountain region as a matter of
foreign, development and scientific policy, and
• wouldn't it be great if other countries similarly increased their funding for global change
research in mountain areas.
47
Working Groups
This argument seems to be one that CIRMOUNT is slowly framing within the context of the US
federal budget process. A presentation to IGFA would provide a means of speaking directly,
though not solely, to US NSF and other federal funding agencies about this topic.
Frameworks
The GLOCHAMORE program (MRI, UNESCO-MAB and the EU) is sponsoring an Open
Science Conference on Global Change in Mountain Regions in Perth, UK on Oct 1-5, 2005. At
its most basic level, the Conference provides an opportunity for exchange and communications.
At another level it is the concluding step in the development of a research strategy applicable to
mountain biosphere reserves. The development of a strategy may be among the next steps for
CIRMOUNT, and therefore it may be helpful for CIRMOUNT to be more involved with this
conference.
A quick view of the expressions of interest show that around 10 CIRMOUNT-oise have inquired.
No one from CIRMOUNT has expressed a desire to chair a session. Is CIRMOUNT interested
in sponsoring a session?
There is currently a lot of activity in Russia and Central Asia surrounding global change in those
regions. Central Asia is arguably very similar to the western US: might there not be some merit
in comparing notes with colleagues from Central Asia, Russia, Mongolia and China, perhaps at
a session in Perth or in a stand-alone conference? Could we envision doing something similar
for the American Cordillera, something that Henry Diaz is already working on?
Finally, I personally am very interested in two potential symposia topics:
− The current state of remote sensing in mountain environment: what can we get out of the
sensors that are already out there, and
− How does one use large transects or multiple sites (e.g., the transect from the Olympics
to the Rockies) to extract something more than the recognition that things differ from one
place to another.
The first topic is motivated largely by my ignorance of how RS has progressed since about
1985, hence it may not be great interest to anyone else. But, then again, maybe it is. The
second seems very important if we were ever to create widely dispersed mountain
observatories.
48
Working Groups
IMPLEMENTATION OF MOUNTAIN CLIMATE NETWORKS
Point of Departure for MTNCLIM 2005 Working Group Discussion
Kelly Redmond (krwrcc@dri.edu) and Mark Losleben
(mark.losleben@colorado.edu)
This group will make the assumption that the need for mountain climate observations has
already been established. Most of the discussion will center on the following topics, although it
is not limited to them.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate needs versus weather needs – striving for consistency through time
Network organization
Candidate sites
Siting and exposure issues
Degree of standardization
Individual site design
Site selection – is it pertinent to the goal? Is it “permanent” ?
Sensor issues – quality, robustness, design maximum by element
Power issues
Icing survival
Site security, administrative and physical
Communications
One-way or two-way
Reliability
Additional procedures to prevent data loss
Maintenance
This is the key issue!
Who will do this?
Degree of commitment, and motivation for participation
Periodic, on-demand, or other approach
Equipment swap-outs and upgrades
Maintaining programmatic continuity and corporate knowledge
Data flow
Centralized ingest
Centralized access
Quality control of data
Archival
Products
The data themselves
Summaries
Funding
Prototype approaches as proof of concept
Linking and leveraging are essential
Bridging to practical and operational communities
Bridging to counterpart research efforts and initiatives
49
Working Groups
A strategy to attain the monitoring goals involves these elements:
1. All major mountain ranges should be sampled.
2. Along-axis and cross-axis sampling for major mountain chains.
3. Approximately 5-10 sites per state (1 per 28000 - 56000 km2)
4. Highest sites as high as possible within each state, but at both high relative and absolute
elevations.
5. Free air exposures at higher sites.
6. Utilize existing measurements and networks, and extend existing records, when
possible.
7. AC power to prevent ice/rime when practical.
8. Temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation as main
elements, others as feasible.
9. Hourly readings, and real-time communication whenever possible
10. Absence of local artificial influences, site stable for next 5-10 decades.
11. Current and historical measurements accessible via World Wide Web when possible.
12. Hydro measurements (precipitation, snow water content, and depth) not practical at
highest points, so have lower sites in more protected settings to permit these.
13. Maintain stable site characteristics (e.g., vegetation height) needed for measurement
homogeneity.
14. High quality, rugged, durable instrumentation with proven track records greatly desirable.
15. Site documentation history available and accessible.
50
Working Groups
Conference Participant List
Name
Affiliation
Email Address
CIRMOUNT Coordinating Group
Millar, Connie (co-chair)
PSW Research Station, USDA Forest
cmillar@fs.fed.us
Service
Graumlich,Lisa (co-chair)
Big Sky Institute - Montana State University
lisa@montana.edu
Diaz, Henry (co-chair)
NOAA - Climate Diagnostics Center
henry.f.diaz@noaa.gov
Cayan,Daniel
Scripps Institution of Oceanography / VCSD
dcayan@vcsd.edu
Dettinger, Michael
U.S. Geological Survey, Scripps Institute of
mddettin@usgs.gov
Oceanography
Fagre,Daniel
U.S. Geological Survey - NRMSC
dan_fagre@usgs.gov
Greenwood,Greg
Mountain Research Institute
greenwood@scnat.ch
Hughes, Malcolm
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research,
mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu
University of Arizona
Peterson, Dave
USDA Forest Service
wild@u.washington.edu
Powell, Frank
White Mountain Research Station, University fpowell@ucsd.edu
of California
Redmond, Kelly
DRI / Western Regional Climate Center
kelly.Redmond@dri.edu
Stephenson, Nathan
U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological
Nathan_L._Stephenson@nps.gov
Research Center
Swetnam, Thomas
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research,
tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu
University of Arizona
Woodhouse, Connie
NOAA - NCDC
connie.woodhouse@noaa.gov
U.S. Geological Survey, Jemez Mts. Field
craig_allen@usgs.gov
Conference Participants
Allen, Craig
Station
Bachelet, Dominique
Oregon State University
bachelet@fsl.orst.edu
Bachman, Don
Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies
avalpro@theglobal.net
Baker, Barry
The Nature Conservancy
bbaker@tnc.org
Bales, Roger
University of California, Merced
Basagic, Hassan
Portland State University
basagic@pdx.edu
Bennetts, Robert
Greater Yellowstone Network, NPS
robert_bennetts@nps.gov
Bernhardt, David
National Weather Service
david.bernhardt@noaa.gov
Biondi, Franco
University of Nevada
fbiondi@unr.edu
51
Participant List
rbales@ucmerced.edu
Name
Affiliation
Email Address
Bowman, Bill
University of Colorado
william.bowman@colorado.edu
Bracht, Brandi
University of Nebraska
bbracht@bigred.unl.edu
Briles, Christy
University of Oregon
cbriles@uoregon.edu
Bytnerowicz, Andrezj
PSW Research Station, USDA Forest Service abytnerowicz@fs.fed.us
Cecil, DeWayne
U.S. Geological Survey
ldcecil@usgs.gov
Clow, David
U.S. Geological Survey
dwclow@usgs.gov
Comrie, Andrew
University of Arizona
comrie@arizona.edu
Corbin, Jennifer
University of Montana
jennifer.corbin@umontana.edu
Crabtree, Bob
Yellowstone Ecological Research Center
crabtree@yellowstoneresearch.org
Dahms,Dennis
University of Northern Iowa
dennis.dahms@uni.edu
Despain,Don
U.S. Geological Survey - NRMSC
don_despain@usgs.gov
Earman,Sam
Desert Research Institute
searman@dri.edu
Gershunov, Alexander
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
sasha@ucsd.edu
Gray, Stephen
U.S. Geological Survey - Desert Laboratory
stgray@usgs.gov
Gresswell, Bob
U.S. Geological Survey - NRMSC
bgresswell@usgs.gov
Hall, Alex
UCLA, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
alexhall@atmos.ucla.edu
Harper, Joel
University of Montana
joel@mso.umt.edu
Hessburg, Paul
PNW Research Station, USDA Forest Service phessburg@fs.fed.us
Hicke, Jeff
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory,
jhicke@nrel.colostate.edu
Colorado State University
Hinckley, Tom
College of Forest Resources, University of
hinckley@u.washington.edu
Washington
Jean, Cathie
Greater Yellowstone Network, NPS
cathie_jean@nps.gov
Jensen, Mark
USDA Forest Service
mjensen@fs.fed.us
Kiesecker, Joseph
The Nature Conservancy
jkiesecker@tnc.org
Knowles, Noah
U.S. Geological Survey
nknowles@usgs.gov
Kuhn, Richard Eric
Colorado River Water Conservation District
ekuhn@crwcd.org
Kunzig, Robert
Freelance Writer
robert.kunzig@wanadoo.fr
Landry, Chris
Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies
clandry@snowstudies.org
Lenart, Melanie
University of Arizona - ISPE
mlenart@email.arizona.edu
Leung, Ruby
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
ruby.leung@pnl.gov
Littell, Jeremy
Climate Impacts Group, University of
jlittell@u.washington.edu
Washington
Logan, Jesse
USDA Forest Service
jalogan@fs.fed.us
Losleben,Mark
Mountain Research Station, University of
Mark.Losleben@Colorado.edu
Colorado
52
Participant List
Name
Affiliation
Email Address
Lundquist, Jessica
CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center
jessica.lundquist@noaa.gov
Lynch, Ann
Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA
alynch@fs.fed.us
Forest Service
MacDonald, Glen
Geography - UCLA
macdonald@geog.ucla.edu
Machida, Dennis
Tahoe Conservancy
dtm@tahoecons.ca.gov
MacMahon, Jim
Utah State University
jam@cc.usu.edu
MacMillion, Scott
Bozeman Daily Chronicle
scottm@dailychronicle.com
Mark, Bryon
Ohio State University
mark.9@osu.edu
Matter, Margaret
Colorado State University, Dept. Civil
mmatter@lamar.colostate.edu
Engineering
McCabe, Greg
U.S. Geological Survey
gmccabe@usgs.gov
McGinnis, David
Montana State University
dmcginnis@msubillings.edu
McKenzie, Donald
PNW Research Station, USDA Forest Service donaldmckenzie@fs.fed.us
Mensing, Scott
University of Nevada
smensing@unr.edu
Mitchell, Stephen
Oregon State University
stephen.mitchell@oregonstate.edu
Mock, Carey
Dept. of Geography, University of South
mockcj@gwm.sc.edu
Carolina
Mote, Philip
Climate Impacts Group, University of
philip@atmos.washington.edu
Washington
Neilson, Ron
PNW Research Station, USDA Forest Service neilson@fsl.orst.edu
Nijhuis, Michelle
High Country News
michelle@hcn.org
Nolin, Anne
Oregon State University
nolina@science.oregonstate.edu
Nydick, Koren
Mountain Studies Institute
koren@mountainstudies.org
Pederson, Greg
U.S. Geological Survey - NRMSC, Big Sky
gpederson@montana.edu
Institute - Montana State University
Peterson, David
U.S. Geological Survey
dhpete@usgs.gov
Plummer, Mitchell
Idaho National Engineering and
Mitchell.Plummer@inl.gov
Environmental Laboratory
Porinchu, David
Ohio State University, Dept. of Geography
porinchu.1@osu.edu
Power, Mitchell
University of Oregon
mpower@darkwing.uoregon.edu
Prato, Tony
University of Missouri-Columbia
pratoa@missouri.edu
Pugesek, Bruce
U.S. Geological Survey -BRD, NRMSC
Bruce_Pugesek@usgs.gov
Running, Steve
University of Montana
swr@ntsg.umt.edu
Schrag, Anne
Montana State University
aschrag@montana.edu
Schreier, Hans
Institute for Resources, Environment and
star@interchange.ubc.ca
Sustainability
53
Participant List
Name
Affiliation
Email Address
Schullery, Paul
Writer and Editor - National Park Service
Paul_Shullery@nps.gov
Shapley, Mark
Limnological Research Center, University of
shap0029@umn.edu
Minnesota
Sheldon, Jennifer
Yellowstone Ecological Research Center
sheldon@yellowstoneresearch.org
Shinker, Jacqueline
Indiana State University
jshinker@indstate.edu
Shively, Carol
Yellowstone National Park
Carol_Shively@nps.gov
Smiley, John
U.C. White Mountain Research Station
jsmiley@wmrs.edu
Smith, Molly
University of California, Berkeley
msmith@nature.berkeley.edu
Solomon, Madeline
UC Berkeley
msolomon@eps.berkeley.edu
Sousanes, Pamela
Denali National Park & Preserve
pam_sousanes@nps.gov
Stark, Mike
Billings Gazette
mstark@billingsgazette.com
Stine, Peter
Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest
pstine@fs.fed.us
Service
Stone, Jeffery
University of Nebraska, Dept. of Geosciences jstone@unlserve.unl.edu
Swerhun, Kristina
Mount Arrowsmith Biosphere Reserve
kswerhun@hotmail.com
Tartboton, David
Utah State University
dtarb@cc.usu.edu
Waddell, Elizabeth
National Park Service
elizabeth_waddell@nps.gov
Watson, Emma
Climate Research Branch - Meteorological
Emma.Watson@ec.gc.ca
Service of Canada
Wegweiser, Marilyn
Draper Museum of Natural History, Buffalo
marilynw@bbhc.org
Bill Historical Center
Westerling, Anthony
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
leroy@ucsd.edu
Westfall, Robert
Sierra Nevada Research Center, USDA
bwestfall@fs.fed.us
Forest Service
Westover, Karlyn
University of Nebraska, Dept. of Geosciences coyote@unlserve.unl.edu
Whiteman, David
Department of meteorology, University of
whiteman@met.utah.edu
Utah
Whitham, Thomas
Marriam-Powell Center for Environmental
Thomas.Whitham@nau.edu
Research, Northern Arizona University
Whitlock, Cathy
Montana State University
whitlock@montana.edu
Williams, Mark
INSTAAR, University of Colorado
markw@snobear.colorado.edu
Zeigler, Kate
University of New Mexico
bludragon@gmail.com
54
Participant List
Boulder Glacier
Glacier National Park, Montana
1932
Photo by G. Grant
1988
Photo by G. Pederson
Photo by J. DeSanto