Preface
The security environment facing the United States and NATO in
Europe is continuing to change in fundamental ways almost a decade
after the fall of the Soviet Union. One significant change has been the
steady growth of security challenges emanating from Europe’s southern
periphery—around the Mediterranean and beyond. The United States
remains the dominant security actor in this region, and NATO strategy
is beginning to look more closely at the management of problems
outside the center of Europe. European, Middle Eastern, and Eurasian
security are becoming interdependent as a result of political, economic, and military trends. The evolution of the strategic environment
along these lines has important implications for defense planning, including the future of U.S. and allied air power. It also suggests a growing role for key allies in NATO’s south—Spain, Italy, and Turkey—and
the growing significance of U.S. and United States Air Force Europe
(USAFE) relationships with these countries. The recent Kosovo experience underscores these realities.
This report explores the strategic environment on NATO’s southern periphery, with special attention to transregional risks, Tu r k e y ’s Alliance role, the Mediterranean dimension of NATO adaptation, and
what these issues might mean for U.S. strategy and the USAF. This research was undertaken as part of a 1998 project on “Change and
Adaptation in NATO: Implications for the USAF,” conducted within
the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND’s Project AIR FORCE.
Other reports in this series address: emerging security issues in Europe’s east; the strategic environment in the Caucasus and Central
Asia (Richard Sokolsky and Tanya Charlick-Paley, NATO and Caspian
Security: A Mission Too Far? MR-1074-AF, 1999); prospective allied
defense contributions and the outlook for European security and defense cooperation; the air power contributions of NATO’s new and potential members; and the defense planning and air power implications
of a changing NATO.
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N ATO LOOKS SOUTH
Project AIR FORC E
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally
funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and
analysis. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy
alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is
performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy
and Doctrine.