Food Security to 2040
What’s coming down the track?
John Ingram
Food Systems Programme Leader
Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic
and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to
meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)
… is universally applicable
… is more than food production
… is underpinned by food systems
Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …
… ‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security
“… exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and
social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
•Nutritional Value
•Social Value
•Food Safety
•Affordability
•Allocation
•Preference
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
•Production
•Distribution
•Exchange
Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities
contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries
Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
Example
contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Climate
change
N cycle
P cycle
Fresh water
use
Biodiversity
loss
Atmos.
aerosols
Chemical
pollution
Producing
food
Processing
& Packaging
food
Distributing
& Retailing
food
Consuming
food
Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
Example
contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing
food
Processing
& Packaging
food
Distributing
& Retailing
food
Consuming
food
Climate
change
GHGs,
albedo
Factory
emissions
Emissions from
transport and
cold chain
GHGs from
cooking
N cycle
Eutrophicn,
GHGs
Factory effluent
NOx from
transport
Waste
P cycle
P reserves
Detergents
Fresh water
use
Irrigation
Washing,
heating, cooling
Biodiversity
loss
Waste
Cleaning food
Cooking,
cleaning
Deforestation, Paper/card
soils, fishing
Metal mining
Invasive spp
Consumer
choices
Atmos.
aerosols
Dust
Shipping
Smoke from
cooking
Chemical
pollution
Pesticides
Transport
emissions
Cooking,
cleaning
Factory effluent
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary
Boundaries affect Food Security?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time
for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
• Production
FOOD
ACCESS
?
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary
Boundaries affect Food Security?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time
for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety
FOOD
ACCESS
• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange
?
Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability
Poor people tend to spend relatively more of
their income on food, therefore suffer more
when food prices go up
Cost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in
UK, but 90% cost of chapati in India
Extreme weather also impacts food storage …
… and food distribution …
… and food safety.
• Mycotoxins formed on plant products
in the field or during storage
• Residues of pesticides in plant
products affected by changes in
managing increased pest pressure
• Marine biotoxins in seafood following
production of phycotoxins by harmful
algal blooms
• Pathogenic bacteria in foods during
heat waves.
Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009
Background
Planetary Boundary concerns are clear
But what’s coming down the
track for food security?
Prevalence of undernourishment
% of world population
http://faostat3.fao.org
However, …
~ 1 billion people still hungry
Developed
~ 15m
SSA
~ 225m
LAC
~ 40m
Asia & Pac
~ 525m
~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and
other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”
“Vitamin D deficiency:
thought to affect
at least half the UK’s
white population,
up to 90% of the
multi-ethnic population
and a quarter of children”
(Dec, 2012)
And food systems are also ‘failing’
a further ~2.5 billion of us!
Global: 33% of all adults are
overweight or obese.
Australia: 60% of all adults are
overweight or obese.
England: 19% of Yr 6 children
obese & 14% overweight.
Shanghai: Over 200,000
(14%) children are obese
Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et al, 2013
Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition:
the ‘new normal’
“Nearly every country in the
world experiences some
form of malnutrition, and no
country can take good
nutrition for granted.”
International Food Policy Research Institute, 2014.
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic
and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to
meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life.
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
Excess cals (incl. some
with insufficient nutrs)
currently ~ 1 billion
currently ~ 2 billion
currently ~ 3 billion
currently >2.5 billion
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
Excess cals (incl. some
with insufficient nutrs)
currently ~ 1 billion
currently ~ 2 billion
currently ~ 3 billion
currently >2.5 billion
CONSUMERS
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop
PRODUCERS
Local, Regional & Global Production Activities
farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
Productivity
Diversity & Quality
Social, Political, Business, and Biophysical Environments
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
World population, 1950-2100, according to
different projections and variants
2013: 7.2 billion
2025: 8.1 billion
2050: 9.6 billion
2100: 10.9 billion
Nearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!
World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.
Looking ahead
$6,000 – $30,000
Dietary energy supply increases
as incomes rise …
… leading to increases in consumption.
(kcal/person/day)
Looking ahead ...
“unless trends are
curbed, half the global
adult population will
be overweight in 15
years time”
kcal/person/day
consumption
Calorie consumption
2040
The environmental consequences of meeting this demand with
nottrends
to scale)
current food systems and (indicative;
consumption
are dire
2025
Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2
Diabetes) will be massive
Annual UK NHS spend on diabetes alone increases
from £10b to £17b over the next 25 years
2015
2000
2250
Too much ---- Appropriate ---- -- Too little -- Too much - ----- Appropriate amount ----- -- Too little ------- Too much ------ ---- Appropriate amount ---- --- Too little ------------- Too much ------------ --- Appropriate amount --- ----- Too little -----
1
2
3
4
5
6
Billions of people
7
8
9
10
Environmental Change
will clearly affect food security
But how will this interact with
Socioeconomic Change?
Need to consider drivers and feedbacks
for food system ‘sustainability’ anlayses
Environmental feedbacks
e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity
Environmental
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric
Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality,
Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea level
‘Natural’
DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes
Solar cycles
DRIVER
Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context,
Cultural context
Science & Technology
Socioeconomic feedbacks
e.g. nutrition, business, political stability
Food
Utilisation
Food
Access
Food Security
Food
Availability
Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems
Classic Concept
Food System Concept
Social
Nutritional
Environmental
Environmental
Economic
Enterprise
“Sustainable” ≠ “Environmental” (only)
Goal: Sustainable Food and9080Nutrition Security
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in
Goal
food system and world view.
CONSUMERS
Consumers
Nutritional
Environment
Constraints on dietary choice and
diversity
Enterprise
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
60
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
50
40
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
Goal
30
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System
Activities
20
Value Chain
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing,
advertising, retailing, …
10
=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and
Price at shop
0
Nutritional
PRODUCERS
Environment
Enterprise
80
70
Local, Regional & Global Production
Activities
60
farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture,
fishing, …
=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity 50
and Price at farm
40
Goal
30
Producers
20
10
Productivity
0
Diversity
& Quality
Nutritional Environment Enterprise
?