Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Content
Market highlights
US Dollar Index
Indian Rupee
Euro
Sterling Pound
Japanese Yen
Economic Indicators
Heena Imtiaz Naik
Research Associate
Currency
Heena.naik@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104
Harsh Rawat
Technical Analyst
Currency
harsh.rawat@angelbroking.com
(022) 3935 8141
Prathamesh Mallya
Sr. Research Analyst
Non-agro Commodity & Currency
prathamesh.mallya@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134
Kaynat Chainwala
Research Analyst
kaynat.chainwala@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136
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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
 India’s WPI Inflation surged by 0.34 percent in Apr’16
 US Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 9.0 levels in May’16
Market Highlights (% change)
Last
as on May 16, 2016
Prev.
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
NIFTY
7860.8
0.59
-0.1
#N/A
-4.5
US and Asian markets have revived and is now trading in green after
Goldman Sachs gave its positive take on markets. Moreover, crude
prices hit six-month highs on global supply outages. All the above
factors kept the global markets positive.
SENSEX
25653.2
0.64
-0.1
#N/A
40.3
DJIA
17710.7
1.00
0.0
-1.9
-3.2
S&P
2066.7
1.0
0.1
0.3
-1.9
US DOLLAR INDEX
FTSE
6151.4
0.2
-64.8
-4.0
-11.6
KOSPI
1967.9
0.1
0.0
-2.3
0.9
BOVESPA
58497.8
0.2
14.7
8.9
5.4
NIKKEI
16466.4
13.8
-0.1
1.2
88.7
The Dollar Index traded on a flat note yesterday after the release of
Federal Reserve data which showed a decline in New York’s area
manufacturing activity. However, markets did not react much to this
since the reading is often volatile from month to month.
Last week Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed spoke about
America’s strong economic fundamentals and cited weak spots in
capital spending. This kept the DX volatile however now the markets
are anxiously waiting for CPI data that will be released today. Markets
will keenly vouch for this data so as to gauge the timing of interest
rate hike.
US Dollar Index made an intraday high of 94.68 and closed at 94.55 on
Monday.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note yesterday led by outflows of
funds in the domestic market amid negative sentiments in the global
markets. Moreover, fresh buying of the American currency by
importers and banks amid stronger dollar in the overseas market
dragged the rupee further lower.
Domestic markets i.e. Sensex and Nifty ended on a positive note after
Rajya Sabha passed a new bankruptcy code to address corporate
debts and improve the ease of doing business. Moreover, recently
released UN report stated that despite delay in domestic policy
reforms, India’s economy has been gaining momentum slowly and is
projected to grow by 7.3 per cent in 2016.
Nymex Crude $/bbl
Comex Gold - $/oz
47.72
3.3
9.9
18.2
-20.1
1273.40
0.1
0.6
1.6
3.9
Comex Silver - $/oz
17.12
0.2
0.3
0.9
-2.5
LME Copper (3
month) -$/tonne
G-Sec -10 yr @7.8%
- Yield
4645.00
0.4
-0.9
-22.3
-27.6
100.91
0.0
-0.2
#N/A
-1.9
Source: Reuters
US Dollar (% change)
as on May 16, 2016
Last
Prev.
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
Dollar Index
94.55
0.0
0.5
0.1
19.0
US $ / INR (Spot)
66.83
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-5.1
US $ / INR May’16
Futures (NSE)
US $ / INR May’16
Futures (MSE)
66.95
0.02
0.2
0.43
5.18
66.94
0.01
0.2
0.46
5.17
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – USD/INR
Indian Rupee made an intraday low of 66.93 and closed at 66.83 on
Monday.
OUTLOOK
From the intra-day perspective, Rupee is likely to trade positive as
Asian markets are cheering a host of positive events like positive take
on global markets by Goldman Sachs along with six-month highs of
crude prices on global supply outages. This will keep the Indian
markets and its currency positive.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
valid for May 17, 2016
Trend
US Dollar/INR May’16 (NSE/MSE)
Support
Resistance
Sideways 66.81/66.60 67.13/67.28
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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
EURO (EUR/USD)
Euro strengthened by 0.1 percent yesterday owing to slight weakness
seen in the US Dollar Index after the disappointing release of
manufacturing index data from America. This helped the shared
currency to trade higher.
Due to lack of important economic data releases from the Euro-zone
along with bank holiday in Germany and France kept the trading
volumes a bit light.
Euro currency made an intraday high of 1.1342 and closed at 1.1316 on
Monday.
Euro (% change)
as on May 16, 2016
Last
Prev. day
WoW
MoM
YoY
Euro /$ (Spot)
1.1316
0.1
-0.6
0.3
-1.2
Euro / INR (Spot)
75.63
-0.1
0.4
-0.6
-4.0
Euro / INRMay’16
Futures (NSE)
75.84
-0.19
-0.2
0.50
8.56
Euro / INRMay’16
Futures (MSE)
75.84
-0.18
-0.2
0.41
8.52
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – EUR/INR
OUTLOOK
Euro is expected to trade lower after the European Union's statistics
agency revised down the annual GDP estimate to 1.5 percent from 1.6
percent in the first quarter of the year.
Technical Outlook
valid for May 17, 2016
Trend
Euro/INR May’16 (NSE/MSE)
Sideways
Support
75.68/75.51
Resistance
76.03/76.18
STERLING POUND (GBP/USD)
The Confederation of British Industry downgraded its UK growth outlook
citing uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum which is weighing on
investment plans. In spite of surge in house-hold spending, growth
remains muted owing to deterioration in the global economic outlook.
In a recent statement, the UK PM warned that the poorest and most
vulnerable people in Britain would be hit hardest by the economic
consequences of leaving the EU. He stated that if Brexit ever happens
there will loss of jobs and prices will soar.
In spite of all the above negative factors, sterling pound traded higher.
Reason for this strength could be attributed to DX weakness.
Source: Telequote
GBP (% change)
as on May 16, 2016
Last
Prev. day
WoW
MoM
YoY
$ / GBP (Spot)
1.4396
0.24
-0.1
1.4
-8.4
GBP / INRMay’16
Futures (NSE)
96.20
-0.34
-0.24
0.16
-1.48
GBP / INRMay’16
Futures (MCX-SX)
96.20
-0.30
-0.22
0.18
-1.45
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – GBP/INR
Sterling Pound made an intraday high of 1.4416 and closed at 1.4396 on
Monday.
OUTLOOK
Sterling Pound is expected to trade lower after Confederation of British
Industry downgraded its UK growth outlook citing uncertainty ahead of
the EU referendum which is weighing on investment plans.
Technical Outlook
valid for May 17, 2016
Trend
GBP/INR May’16 (NSE/MSE)
Sideways
Support
96.05/95.89
Resistance
96.37/96.53
Source: Telequote
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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
JAPANESE YEN (JPY/USD)
JPY (% change)
Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.38 yesterday. Last week BoJ governor
spoke on a number of important factors that were troubling the
Japanese economy. He confirmed that overseas economic
developments were risking Japan’s economic outlook. Sluggish global
demand has affected Japan's consumption pattern too. Low consumer
spending has failed to spur the inflation rate.
as on May 16, 2016
Last
Prev
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
JPY / $ (Spot)
109.01
0.38
0.6
0.3
-8.6
JPY 100 / INRMay’16
Futures (NSE)
JPY 100 / INR May’16
Futures (MSE)
61.51
0.10
0.13
3.54
15.24
61.51
0.05
0.11
4.25
15.21
Source: Reuters
However, he is still optimistic that Japan will come out of this turmoil.
The governor expects overseas economy to rebound thereby helping
Japan to make amends with growth. Inflation expectations are likely to
follow increasing trend however the authorities won't hesitate to act if
2 percent CPI is seen endangered.
Technical Chart – JPY/INR
Japanese Yen made an intraday low of 109.9 and closed at 109.01 on
Monday.
OUTLOOK
Japanese Yen is expected to trade lower as Japan’s FM Taro Aso said
that in order to protect Japan’s trade and economy; BoJ would be
ready to intervene in the currency market if strength in Yen continues
for long.
Technical Outlook
valid for May 17, 2016
Trend
JPY/INR May’16 (NSE/MSE)
Source: Telequote
Sideways
Support
61.35/61.20
Resistance
61.66/61.82
Economic indicators to be released on May 17, 2016
Indicator
Country
Time (IST)
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Impact
Building Permits
US
6:00pm
-
1.13M
1.09M
High
CPI m/m
US
6:00pm
-
0.4%
0.1%
High
Core CPI m/m
US
6:00pm
-
0.2%
0.1%
High
Housing Starts
US
6:00pm
-
1.12M
1.09M
Medium
Capacity Utilization Rate
US
6:45pm
-
75.1%
74.8%
Medium
Industrial Production m/m
US
6:45pm
-
0.3%
-0.6%
Medium
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