Geographical factors underlying
change in national identity within the
UK
David Owen,
Institute for Employment Research,
University of Warwick,
Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Structure
• The question of ethnic diversity and identity
• Aims of paper
• Trends in ethnic composition and national
identity in the UK
• Factors underlying national identification
• National identity from the 2011 Census
• Geographical patterns of identity and the role of
ethnicity
• Conclusions
Background – ethnic diversity and identity
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•
•
•
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In recent decades, the ethnic composition of the UK has changed rapidly,
largely as a result of high international net in-migration.
Over the same period, surveys have shown that the attachment of people to
a British identity has declined.
Commentators such as David Goodhart have argued that much of the
organisation of British society and economy (e.g. the welfare state) is
predicated on the idea that the population of the country represents a
community with interests in common and that recent population trends had
undermined this. He argued that a conflict is developing between diversity
and shared values and solidarity.
The role of the UK state has been challenged by both membership of the
European Union and devolution of political power to nations within the UK.
Within these trends, the growing ethnic diversity of the population can
influence national identity through two mechanisms:
– by changing the way in which people from majority ethnic groups perceive the
nation and identify with it, and;
– through differences in the perception of the nation and identification with it by
migrants and people from minority ethnic groups.
Aims of the paper
• To discuss whether there is a decline in attachment to
British identity
• To examine the role of increased ethnic diversity
• To explore geographical variations in the expression of
British and other national identities within England and
Wales, using the 2011 Census of Population.
Migration and change in the ethnic composition of
the UK population, 1991-2010
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•
•
•
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Over the period from 1991, net
international migration to the UK
increased steadily.
This period has seen migration
from all areas of the world
increase.
The minority ethnic group
population of the UK increased at
an increasing rate over the period
1994-2010, with the most rapid
increase in n “Other” ethnic
groups.
The rate of growth of ethic groups
with origins in the New
Commonwealth has been slower.
The diversity of the population has
also increased, as measured by
the country of origin of the
population.
Trends in attachment to Britain or England
•
•
•
The British Social Attitudes Survey
reveals that about two-thirds of people
say they “feel British”, and this has
changed little since the mid-1990s.
Since the 1970s, the percentage of
people who describe themselves as
British in preference to other forms of
national identification has declined,
while the percentage who describe
their identity as being ‘English’,
‘Scottish’ or ‘Welsh’ has increased.
The British Social Attitudes Survey
shows that the percentage of people in
England who describe themselves as
British but not English or more British
than English declined between 1997
and 2012.
The percentage of people attached to
an English identity grew much more
strongly over this period.
100
90
80
70
60
50
British not English
More British than English
40
Equally English and British
30
More English than British
20
English not British
10
0
19
97
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
03
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
11
20
12
•
Trends in national identity by ethnic group (1)
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•
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•
The LFS question on national
identity reveals a decline over time
in the percentage of all people
describing themselves as “British
Only” (upper chart)
The percentage identifying with
both Britain and a UK country is
higher, but has also declined.
The percentage identifying with
only one of the UK countries has
increased.
The percentage identifying with
other countries has increased.
The pattern for white people
(lower chart) is similar, but the
percentage identifying as British
only is smaller and the increase in
identifying with non-UK countries
is smaller
Trends in national identity by ethnic group (2)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
However, the percentage of
people from minority ethnic groups
identifying as British is much
higher than for white people.
Even so, there is a small decline
over time.
The percentage identifying with a
country within the UK is declining
The percentage identifying with a
non-UK country is increasing.
These trends are more
pronounced for the South Asian
population.
Bangladeshi and Pakistani people
are more likely to identify with
Britain than Indian people.
Black people are slightly less likely
to identify with Britain.
Belonging to Britain
•
•
•
•
•
The Citizenship Survey asked a
number of questions about national
identity and community cohesion.
The upper chart reveals that there is
little difference between ethnic groups
in the degree of their attachment to
Britain (the Other ethnic groups
display the lowest percentages).
However, the lower chart shows that
for many minority ethnic groups, this
does not equate to accepting British
lifestyles.
A relatively high percentage feel it is
possible to belong fully to Britain while
maintaining a separate cultural or
religious identity.
This seems to give support to
Goodhart’s concern that ethnic
diversification may weaken the
acceptance of common values.
Independent Variable
Dependent variable (Base category= no national identity).
British only
Identifying factors
underlying national
identity
•
•
•
•
A mutinomial logistic regression
model was estimated for people
identifying as British, with one of
the UK countries, with both, with
a non-UK country and both with
Britain and a non-UK country
over the period 2001-2011.
Data source was the LFS and
all odds ratios are statistically
significant at the 5% level.
Independent variables were a
time-trend, gender, age, social
class, ethnic group and migrant
origin.
The model accounted for
around a third of the variation in
the data.
UK country
only
0.998
British and
other UK
country
1.048
Other
country
0.989
British and
other
country
1.022
0.915
0.927
1.013
0.841
0.932
Higher managerial and professional
Lower managerial and professional
3.049
2.633
1.906
3.927
2.858
2.166
1.895
1.639
2.582
1.803
Intermediate occupations
1.950
1.791
1.717
1.952
1.554
Small employers and own account workers
1.295
1.219
1.242
1.425
1.306
Lower supervisory and technical
1.595
1.593
1.758
1.480
1.411
Semi-routine occupations
1.394
1.447
1.531
1.205
1.257
Routine occupations
1.199
1.313
1.447
1.029
1.298
Aged under 20
0.591
0.462
0.461
0.908
1.312
Aged 20-29
0.451
0.415
0.356
0.640
1.568
Aged 30-39
0.489
0.435
0.354
0.590
1.270
Aged 40-49
0.537
0.443
0.388
0.529
0.960
Aged 50-59
0.600
0.502
0.459
0.561
0.802
Aged 60-69
0.631
0.593
0.584
0.552
0.656
Aged 70-84
0.819
0.855
0.833
0.662
0.774
Time trend
1.002
Gender (base-female)
Male
NS-SEC (base=unemployed or never worked)
Age group (base=aged 85 or more)
Ethnic group (base=Other ethnic group)
White
0.217
1.875
1.467
0.060
0.081
White and Black Caribbean
3.090
11.561
9.442
2.388
2.060
White and Black African
1.318
5.455
3.031
0.956
1.103
White and Asian
1.245
2.843
3.110
1.061
0.893
White and other
1.344
4.312
2.841
1.327
0.994
Indian
2.072
1.538
1.178
1.945
1.079
Pakistani
3.559
2.833
1.951
3.830
1.238
Bangladeshi
4.333
1.349
1.476
3.882
1.286
Other Asian
0.910
0.882
0.695
0.649
0.474
Black-Caribbean
4.186
5.496
4.232
4.655
2.052
Black-African
1.665
1.097
1.136
1.609
0.789
Black-Other
4.122
16.550
4.268
1.955
1.756
Chinese
0.497
0.714
0.528
0.373
0.333
UK-born
3.157
9.068
2.878
0.145
0.011
Migrant with UK nationality
10.120
7.534
2.229
2.700
0.239
Dummy variables
2001 or 2008
0.944
0.924
0.916
0.820
0.877
Living in Scotland
12.119
20.009
29.561
12.764
14.217
Source: Labour Force Survey.
Summary of findings from regression model
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•
•
•
Identification with Britain declined over the period.
Men had weaker identification with Britain than women.
All forms of national identification were stronger in Scotland.
Young adults were least likely to identify as British, while older
people were more likely to do so.
• People from higher status occupational groups were more likely to
identify with Britain, while people in lower status occupations were
least likely to identify with Britain.
• People from minority ethnic groups, particularly Bangladeshi and
Pakistani people, were most likely to identify with Britain.
• Migrants with British nationality were relatively more likely to identify
with Britain.
National identity and ethnic group in
England, 2011 Census
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•
•
•
•
In England, the percentage of white
people who identify with Britain
rather than England is well below
the average. Two-thirds identify
themselves as being “English only”.
In contrast, nearly half of people
from minority ethnic groups
identified themselves as being
“British only”, but less than a fifth
“English only”, and only an eighth
had a primary identity outside the
UK.
Bangladeshi and Pakistani people
are most likely to identify
themselves as being “British only”.
A relatively high percentage of
people from Other White, Chinese,
Other, Arab and Black-African
people identify with a non-UK
country.
People of mixed parentage are
more likely to identify with Britain
than white people, but less likely to
do so than people from the other
ethnic group in their origin.
Ethnic Group
All categories: Ethnic group
White
White: UK
White: Irish
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller
White: Other White
Minority ethnic groups
Mixed
White and Black Caribbean
White and Black African
White and Asian
Other Mixed
Asian or Asian British
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Chinese
Other Asian
Black ort Black British
Black African
Black Caribbean
Other Black
Other
Arab
Any other ethnic group
All categories:
National
% british % english % other
% non UK
identity
% share only
only
uk identity only
53,012,456
100.0
19.2
60.4
2.2
8.2
45,281,142
85.4
14.1
67.6
2.5
5.2
42,279,236
79.8
14.3
71.8
2.6
0.3
517,001
1.0
17.0
12.6
4.4
61.1
54,895
0.1
9.1
68.0
3.0
13.7
2,430,010
4.6
10.5
5.6
0.2
77.5
7,731,314
14.6
48.9
18.4
0.3
26.2
1,192,879
2.3
30.9
46.5
0.8
12.4
415,616
0.8
24.7
63.0
0.6
3.3
161,550
0.3
30.4
37.6
0.7
22.6
332,708
0.6
36.3
41.0
0.9
11.4
283,005
0.5
34.0
33.8
0.8
21.1
4,143,403
7.8
55.7
11.4
0.2
27.3
1,395,702
2.6
58.1
12.1
0.2
24.4
1,112,282
2.1
62.8
15.3
0.2
15.6
436,514
0.8
71.6
8.0
0.2
15.6
379,503
0.7
38.2
8.7
0.4
47.9
819,402
1.5
41.6
8.0
0.2
44.8
1,846,614
3.5
47.7
17.9
0.2
28.4
977,741
1.8
43.4
10.2
0.2
41.2
591,016
1.1
54.9
26.4
0.2
12.1
277,857
0.5
47.6
26.6
0.3
18.2
548,418
1.0
40.9
11.5
0.3
40.7
220,985
0.4
39.8
10.7
0.3
43.1
327,433
0.6
41.6
12.1
0.3
39.0
People describing
themselves as BritishOnly
The percentage of people
describing their national identity as
British Only is presented.
Key features:
• The highest percentage of
people who describe
themselves as British Only is
highest in London and
neighbouring districts to the
north and west, in the east
Lancashire/West Yorkshire
areas, in the West Midlands, the
cities of the East Midlands in
England.
• This percentage is also high in
eastern Wales and the
urbanised area of south-east
Wales.
• This percentage is very low in
much of rural England, notably
on the eastern half of England.
People describing
themselves as EnglishOnly
The percentage of people
describing their national identity as
English Only is presented for
England.
Key features:
•The highest percentage of people
who describe themselves as
English Only is highest outside the
urbanised parts of the country.
•There is a marked east-west
contrast. The remoter rural east has
highest levels.
•This percentage is lowest in
London, the West Midlands and the
East Lancashire / West Yorkshire
area.
The geographical expression of national
identity
• In order to test how ethnic and geographical factors influence the
geographical expression of ethnic identity, two types of analyses
were undertaken.
• First, linear regressions were estimated on the percentage of the
population in each local authority district identifying as British only in
England and Wales and English only in England using some of the
independent variables used in the LFS regression analysis.
• Secondly, a ‘shift-share analysis’ was undertaken using Detailed
Characteristics table DC2202 to predict the percentage in each
category of identity from the ethnic composition of the local
population.
• The difference between the predicted and actual numbers identifying
as “British only” was mapped.
Regression on %
British Only
Coefficients from a linear
regression model with the
percentage of people who describe
their identity as British only against
a set of independent variables for
local authority districts in England
and Wales. The adjusted R
squared is 0.907.
• The most important positive
influences are the percentage of
people from minority ethnic
groups, and the percentage of
people with a non-UK first
language.
• The strongest negative
influences are the percentage
born overseas and the
percentage in lower status
occupations.
• Higher status occupations, the
unemployment rate and the
economic inactivity rate were
not statistically significant.
B
(Constant)
Std. Error Beta
-11.178
14.593
0.435
0.027
-0.249
% with first language non-UK
% with no passport
t
Sig.
-0.766
0.444
0.972
16.269
0.000
0.057
-0.454
-4.399
0.000
0.372
0.09
0.449
4.123
0.000
0.165
0.049
0.164
3.36
0.001
% higher status occupations
-0.042
0.124
-0.052
-0.338
0.736
% intermediate occupations
-0.191
0.121
-0.123
-1.576
0.116
% lower status occupations
-0.397
0.11
-0.423
-3.621
0.000
Unemployment rate
0.068
0.146
0.023
0.464
0.643
Employment rate
0.366
0.227
0.305
1.613
0.108
0.28
0.197
0.18
1.417
0.157
0.182
0.087
0.14
2.096
0.037
% from minority ethnic groups
% born overseas
Economic inactivity rate
Median age (years)
Regression on %
English Only
Coefficients from a linear
regression model with the
percentage of people who describe
their identity as English only against
a set of independent variables for
local authority districts in England.
The adjusted R squared is 0.966.
• The strongest positive
influences are the percentage of
people from intermediate and
lower status occupations and
the unemployment rate. There
is a weak positive relationship
with median age.
• The strongest negative
influences are the percentage
born overseas and the
percentage from minority ethnic
groups.
• The unemployment rate and the
economic inactivity rate were
not statistically significant
B
Std. Error Beta
(Constant)
57.253
17.726
% from minority ethnic groups
-0.169
0.032
% born overseas
-0.588
% with first language non-UK
% with no passport
t
Sig.
3.230
0.001
-0.196
-5.308
0.000
0.068
-0.555
-8.707
0.000
-0.337
0.108
-0.211
-3.135
0.002
-0.236
0.067
-0.116
-3.539
0.000
% higher status occupations
0.297
0.151
0.189
1.971
0.050
% intermediate occupations
0.630
0.147
0.209
4.276
0.000
% lower status occupations
0.604
0.137
0.325
4.397
0.000
Unemployment rate
0.429
0.178
0.075
2.404
0.017
-0.251
0.272
-0.104
-0.920
0.358
0.116
0.240
0.036
0.485
0.628
-0.331
0.109
-0.132
-3.041
0.003
Employment rate
Economic inactivity rate
Median age (years)
Regression on %
differenced from
predicted British Only
Coefficients from a linear
regression model with the
percentage difference between the
actual and predicted number of of
people who describe their identity
as British only against a set of
independent variables for local
authority districts in England. The
adjusted R squared is 0.87.
• Most important positive :% of
people from minority ethnic
groups, and % percentage of
people with a non-UK first
language.
• The strongest negative
influences are the percentage
born overseas and the
percentage in lower status
occupations.
• Higher and intermediate status
occupations, age, the
unemployment rate,
employment rate and the
economic inactivity rate were
not statistically significant
Std.
Error
B
(Constant)
-192.065
90.614
2.263
0.166
-1.336
% with first language non-UK
Beta
t
Sig.
-2.120
0.035
0.964
13.623
0.000
0.351
-0.465
-3.801
0.000
2.014
0.560
0.464
3.597
0.000
% with no passport
1.245
0.304
0.236
4.088
0.000
% higher status occupations
0.214
0.768
0.051
0.279
0.780
% intermediate occupations
-0.500
0.752
-0.061
-0.664
0.507
% lower status occupations
-2.014
0.681
-0.409
-2.959
0.003
Unemployment rate
0.355
0.909
0.023
0.390
0.696
Employment rate
1.956
1.410
0.311
1.387
0.166
Economic inactivity rate
2.058
1.226
0.252
1.678
0.094
Median age (years)
0.377
0.538
0.056
0.702
0.483
% from minority ethnic groups
% born overseas
British-Only: %
difference from
prediction
The measure presented is the
difference between the predicted
number of people with British only
identity and the actual number, as a
percentage of the actual number
Key features :
• People living in eastern and
south-west England are much
more likely than ethnic
composition predicts to describe
themselves only as English.
• People in the London area and
other areas of large ethnic
minority concentrations in the
midlands and northern England
are more likely to describe
themselves as British.
• People in Wales are more likely
than predicted to describe
themselves as British-only
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
This analysis has shown that the percentage of people who describe themselves as
British only has fallen over time.
The percentage in the Census is much smaller than in the LFS.
The Census reveals a much greater propensity for people in England to identify as
English only.
There is a very strong geographical patterns, with people in eastern England most
likely to describe themselves as English.
People from minority ethnic groups are more likely than white people to describe
themselves as British only.
People in Wales, London and other areas with large minority ethnic group populations
are more likely to describe themselves as British than their ethnic composition would
imply.
Survey data suggests that the meaning of being British is different for white people
and people from minority ethnic groups.
The latter have a more ‘legalistic’ attachment and describing themselves as British
does not mean that they abandon their own cultural traditions.
While “British” is therefore accepted as an inclusive identity by parts of the minority
ethnic group population, it seems that there is a retreat towards an “English” identity
for part of the white population living in less ethnically diverse areas of England.