How well is the impact of international
migration measured between Censuses?
David Owen, Institute for Employment
Research, University of Warwick.
Introduction
•
•
•
•
•
•
This paper is concerned with population change and its monitoring in Wales
and Northern Ireland between 2001 and 2011
Both have relatively small populations, and hence internal and international
migration can have substantial impacts upon the population size and
structure.
The last intercensal decade was one of rapid population increase and high net
international migration, affecting both countries.
This paper (derived from a JRF project on data sources for measuring ethnicity
and poverty) considers the data sources which were available in each country
to measure migration and the changing ethnic composition of the population
during the inter-censal decade.
It contrasts the availability of data in the two countries and the implications
for contemporary awareness of population change by government
departments and service providers.
It compares the findings of the 2011 Census on ethnicity and migration with
estimates of the ethnic composition and migration in each country.
Contrasting national data contexts
Northern Ireland
Wales
• Devolved government with
limited powers.
• Government departments
collect their own statistics and
manage NI-specific surveys.
• Separate statistics agency
(NISRA) collects demographic
data and makes population
estimates.
• NISRA conducts the Census.
• NISRA contributes to UK-wide
surveys and statistics collected
by ONS.
• Devolved government with
limited powers.
• Welsh government departments
collect statistics on their own
operations.
• There are some Wales-specific
surveys managed by Welsh
government departments and
Analytical Services manages the
StatsWales website.
• UK-wide surveys are conducted
by ONS.
• The Census is conducted by ONS,
with Wales-specific questions.
• Demographic data and estimates
are the responsibility of ONS.
Population characteristics of Wales and
Northern Ireland in 2001
Wales
Northern Ireland
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population: 2.9 million
Minority ethnic group population: 61.6
thousand
Minority population share: 2.1 per cent
Largest minority groups (000s): mixed
parentage (17.7), Indian (8.3), Pakistani
(8.3), Chinese (6.3)
% minority ethnic groups UK-born: 52.2
Overseas-born as % of population: 3.2
Non-European % of population: 1.7
Largest overseas countries of birth
(000s): Ireland (12.8), Germany (10.1),
India (5.5), Pakistan (3.5)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population: 1.67 million
Minority ethnic group population: 12.6
thousand
Minority population share: 0.7 per cent
Largest minority groups (000s): Chinese
(4.1), mixed parentage (3.3), Indian
(1.6)
% minority ethnic groups UK-born: 44.2
Overseas-born as % of population: 4.1
Non-European % of population: 1.1
Largest overseas countries of birth
(000s) : Ireland (39), Germany (3.8),
Hong Kong (1.7)
Migration and population change
• In both countries, there was strong population growth throughout the
decade.
• Natural increase was an important influence on population growth, and
increased throughout the decade in both countries.
• In Wales, its effect outweighed net migration by the end of the decade.
• Net migration form the rest of the UK was not important in Northern
Ireland, but was much larger in Wales.
• International migration was a major influence on population change. The
growth of the Northern Ireland population in the mid-decade largely
reflected the increase in net international migration.
• The implication of high rates of net international migration is that the
ethnic composition of the population will alter. In small populations,
dominated by the slow-growing white ethnic group, the change in ethnic
composition is likely to be magnified.
• The next section demonstrates how the ethnic composition of each
country changed during the decade.
Migration and population change:
Northern Ireland
Population change and components (July 2000 – June 2012)
23,000
13,000
GB net migration
International net migration
8,000
Net migration
Natural change
Total change
3,000
Mid-Year to Mid-Year
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
-2,000
2000/01
Compnents of population
18,000
Components of population change: Wales
20
15
Thousands
10
Natural Change
Net Migration
Total population change
5
0
-5
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Wales: migration indicators 2004-11
% non-UK Nationalit
%
Migrant
Migrant
WRS
born
y not
population
NINo
NINo
registratio
British
nonRegistrati Registrati
ns
British
ons
ons as %
of the
population
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
•
•
•
•
3.4
3.6
4.1
4.4
4.6
4.9
5
5.2
55,000
61,000
78,000
85,000
83,000
95,000
97,000
97,000
1.9
2.1
2.7
2.9
2.8
3.2
3.3
3.2
9,200
15,340
14,300
19,280
14,110
11,730
14,580
13,180
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
2,095
5,430
6,920
6,550
3,750
2,865
3,090
560
Migration was measured by ONS estimates of non-British nationality from the Labour Force
Survey and administrative sources – NINos and Workers Registration Scheme. GP registrations
and “flag4” data provide additional indicators of migration.
Migration from the A8 countries peaked in 2006-7, but NINo data showed that migration from
the rest of the world continued.
The estimated number of people with non-British nationality steadily increased.
Poland, India and China were the main sources of migrants over this period.
Regional origins of NINo registrations in Wales
Data sources on migration in Northern Ireland
Nationality
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Slovakia
Slovenia
Total
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total
2.3
3.5
5.8
11.4
21.2
18.4
13.8
9.0
8.8
2004-5
390
20
80
430
1545
2150
875
5
5495
EU15
1.2
1.7
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2005-6
390
40
110
470
1735
4980
1315
9045
2006-7
305
15
210
360
1485
5660
1230
9270
A8 and Other
A2
Europe
0.1
0.1
1.0
6.9
15.8
13.8
9.5
5.0
4.9
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
2007-8
290
5
245
235
1100
5055
985
7900
Africa
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
2008-9
150
210
255
765
2775
665
4815
Asia
and
Middle
East
0.5
1.0
1.5
1.4
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.0
1.0
• Workers Registration Scheme
data shows that the largest
sources of migrant workers were
Poland, followed by Lithuania and
Slovakia.
• Nearly 24 thousand Poles
registered under the scheme over
the decade.
• NINo data (000s) shows that
while A8 countries dominated
The
Australa
Americas sia/Ocea
migration flows, there were
nia
significant flows from Asia and
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
the EU15.
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
Migration from Asia also peaked
0.4
0.3 •
0.3
0.3
in 2006, but that from the EU15
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
was sustained throughout the
0.2
0.1
decade.
2009-10
55
20
160
375
700
1465
305
3090
2010-11
50
20
150
355
660
1380
285
2910
Population change by ethnic group, 20012011
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Wales had a much larger and more diverse minority ethnic group population than
Northern Ireland in 2001.
In both countries, the ethnic composition was different from England. The Chinese
and Mixed parentage populations were relatively large.
There was a long-established Black population in Wales, but the Asian population
was significant. In Northern Ireland, the minority ethnic group population was less
long-established and associated with higher education and the health service.
In both countries, population increased much more rapidly than in previous
decades between 2001 and 2011. The population of Wales grew by 5.5% and that
of Northern Ireland grew by 7.5%.
The white population increased in both countries, but the minority ethnic group
population more than doubled in both. In Wales, the number of Black-African
people quadrupled and the number of people from Other ethnic groups trebled.
In Northern Ireland, the Black-African population was about five times larger in
2011 than 2001, while the Indian population quadrupled and the Other Asian
population emerged during the decade.
In both countries, the longer established minority populations tended to grow
most slowly.
Change in ethnic composition and new ethnic
groups
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
In Wales, the minority ethnic group share of the population more than doubled,
from 2.1% to 4.4%.
The fastest growth was in South Asian and some newer Other ethnic groups, and
hence the mixed parentage and Chinese ethnic groups became relatively smaller.
There was a small increase in the White-Other ethnic group.
The largest non-British ethnic groups in 2011 were Polish, “any other ethnic
group”, unspecified European ethnic groups and Filipinos.
In Northern Ireland, the minority share of the population grew from 0.7% to 1.7%.
The Indian, Other-Asian, Black-African and Other ethnic groups grew strongly.
The main non-English languages used in 2011 in Northern Ireland were Polish
(1%), Lithuanian (0.4%), Irish Gaelic (0.2%), Portugese (0.1%) and Slovak (0.1%).
Clearly, international migration had resulted in the emergence of new white and
minority ethnic groups in both countries.
The white ethnic groups may have masked the decline in the white population in
both countries.
The established minority ethnic groups in both countries gained population, but
people from new minority ethnic groups also migrated during the decade.
Wales: change in ethnic group populations,
2001-2011
2001
White
2841.5
English/Welsh/Scottish/N.
2786.6
Irish
Irish
17.7
Other
37.2
Minority ethnic groups 61.6
Mixed or multiple ethnic group
17.7
White/Black-Caribbean
6.0
White/Black-African
2.4
White/Asian
5.0
Other Mixed
4.3
Asian or Asian British
31.8
Indian
8.3
Pakistani
8.3
Bangladeshi
5.4
Chinese
6.3
Other
3.5
Black or Black British
7.0
African
2.6
Caribbean
3.7
Other
0.7
Other ethnic group
5.1
All usual residents
2903.1
2011
2928.3
2855.5
14.1
55.9
135.2
31.5
11.1
4.4
9.0
7.0
70.1
17.3
12.2
10.7
13.6
16.3
18.3
11.9
3.8
2.6
15.3
3063.5
change
86.8
68.8
-3.6
18.7
73.6
13.8
5.1
2.0
4.0
2.7
38.3
9.0
3.9
5.3
7.3
12.8
11.3
9.3
0.1
1.9
10.2
160.4
% change
3.1
2.5
-20.4
50.4
119.5
78.1
85.0
84.3
80.4
62.3
120.5
107.9
47.3
97.9
116.5
366.2
161.1
357.2
2.9
268.6
199.6
5.5
Northern Ireland: change in ethnic group
populations, 2001-2011
Ethnic group
White
Irish Traveller
Minority ethnic groups
Mixed parentage
Asian and Asian British
Chinese
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Other Asian
Black and Black British
Black Caribbean
Black African
Other Black
Other ethnic group
All persons
2001
1671.0
1.7
12.6
3.3
6.8
4.1
1.6
0.7
0.3
0.2
2.4
0.3
0.5
0.4
1.3
1685.3
2011
1778.4
1.3
31.1
6.0
19.1
6.3
6.2
1.1
0.5
5.0
3.6
0.4
2.3
0.9
2.4
1810.9
Change
107.5
-0.4
18.6
2.7
12.3
2.2
4.6
0.4
0.3
4.8
1.2
0.1
1.9
0.5
1.1
125.6
% change
6.4
-23.9
147.7
81.1
180.4
52.1
295.0
63.3
115.1
2530.5
49.5
45.3
377.6
136.0
82.3
7.5
ONS estimates of ethnicity in Wales
•
•
•
•
•
The ONS produces experimental estimates
of population by ethnic group
Comparing estimates for 2009 with
Census data for 2011 demonstrates that
these projections were quite successful
for Wales.
However, they overestimated the decline
in the white population and growth of the
minority ethnic group population
They over-estimated the growth of the
White-Other population and
underestimated the growth of “Other”
ethnic groups
Nevertheless, this offers a reasonably
reliable approach to monitoring the
changing ethnic composition of the
population after 2011 and yielding some
baseline information for service delivery
and voluntary organisations.
Estimate
2009
Ethnic group
White
95.9
White: British
93.0
White: Irish
0.5
White: Other White
2.4
Minority ethnic groups
4.1
Mixed parentage
1.0
White and Black Caribbean 0.3
White and Black African
0.1
White and Asian
0.3
Other Mixed
0.2
Asian or Asian British
1.8
Indian
0.7
Pakistani
0.6
Bangladeshi
0.3
Other Asian
0.3
Black or Black British
0.6
Black Caribbean
0.2
Black African
0.4
Other Black
0.1
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group
0.8
Chinese
0.4
Other
0.4
Census
2011
95.6
93.2
0.5
1.8
4.4
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.2
1.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.9
0.4
0.5
Northern Ireland: NISRA population estimates
Year
Population White UK- White non- Minority
born
UK born UK-born
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1,686,000
1,699,900
1,716,600
1,733,000
1,749,100
1,762,700
1,772,900
95.4
96.1
95.2
94.3
94.0
94.0
94.0
3.7
3.0
3.7
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.5
Minority
Ethnic
overseas- minorities
born
0.6
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
• NISRA estimates the white and minority ethnic, UK-born and non-UK born
populations using a range of administrative and demographic data
sources.
• These identified the growth of the minority ethnic group population and
the growth of the white minority population over this decade.
• The overall estimated percentages in 2010 are close to the Census
estimates for 2011.
Monitoring new populations – data sources
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The decennial Census is the only statistical source of information on the ethnicity and
migrant origins of the entire population.
Administrative data sources are used to monitor in-migration by country of birth.
Migration trends are estimated from the IPS combined with the Census, LFS and
administrative data.
However, administrative data yield no information on out-migration and migrants who
remain in the country.
Only survey data could yield information on the social and economic characteristics of
migrant and minority groups.
National social surveys conducted in Northern Ireland by NISRA on behalf of ONS have often
included a question on religion in a form relevant to Northern Ireland, rather than an ethnic
group question consistent with Great Britain.
Since sample sizes are proportional to population in those surveys which are not boosted,
the sample size for Wales tends to limit the analysis possible for minority ethnic or newcomer
populations.
The major national source of survey data in the intercensal years covering Wales and
Northern Ireland was the Labour Force Survey / Annual Population Survey.
Despite having a large sample size, it does not yield reliable data disaggregated by ethnic
group. The following slides provide examples.
APS estimates of the minority ethnic group
population in Northern Ireland
•
•
•
The Annual Population Survey in Northern Ireland is based on the Labour Force
Survey. It collects data on ethnicity, nationality and country of birth and a range of
socio-economic variables.
The sample size is larger than that of Northern Ireland-specific social surveys, but
was reduced as a cost saving measure.
Unlike Wales, there is no national APS boost. The APS yielded estimates of the
population by ethnic group but while the population of mixed parentage was
estimated to have increased, those of other ethnic groups were estimated to have
declined.
APS labour market rates in Wales and Northern
Ireland
•
20.0
15.0
16+ unemployment rate - white
16+ unemployment rate - ethnic minority
16+ unemployment rate - white males
10.0
16+ unemployment rate - ethnic minority males
16+ unemployment rate - white females
16+ unemployment rate - ethnic minority females
5.0
Jul 2009-Jun 2010
Jan 2010-Dec 2010
Oct 2009-Sep 2010
Apr 2009-Mar 2010
Jul 2008-Jun 2009
Jan 2009-Dec 2009
Oct 2008-Sep 2009
Apr 2008-Mar 2009
Jul 2007-Jun 2008
Jan 2008-Dec 2008
Oct 2007-Sep 2008
Apr 2007-Mar 2008
Jul 2006-Jun 2007
Jan 2007-Dec 2007
Oct 2006-Sep 2007
Apr 2006-Mar 2007
Jul 2005-Jun 2006
Jan 2006-Dec 2006
Oct 2005-Sep 2006
Apr 2005-Mar 2006
Jul 2004-Jun 2005
Jan 2005-Dec 2005
Oct 2004-Sep 2005
Jan 2004-Dec 2004
0.0
Apr 2004-Mar 2005
•
25.0
Unemployment rate
•
In Wales (upper chart), the APS
measures white unemployment rates
quite well.
The minority ethnic group
unemployment rate is very volatile,
and it is not clear whether the trends
are genuine responses to economic
shocks or the result of uncertainty in
the data.
In Northern Ireland, the trend in
employment rates does not seem
plausible, since male minority
employment rates were increasing in
a recession.
The employment rate for minority
ethnic groups was higher than that
for white people. Though possible,
this seems unlikely.
100.0
90.0
80.0
% of 16-64 year olds in employment
•
70.0
white
60.0
ethnic minority
white males
50.0
ethnic minority males
40.0
white females
ethnic minority females
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Other data sources on minority ethic group
populations
• There are a series of regular social surveys conducted in Northern Ireland
and the National Survey is conducted in Wales.
• Most of these surveys are based on a random sample of the population
with a sample size of around 1000 households/persons.
• Northern Ireland examples are the Continuous Household Survey, Life and
Times Survey and House Condition Survey.
• These surveys also rarely include questions on ethnic group or country of
birth. When they do, small sample sizes mean it is only possible to
produce white/minority analyses.
• An example of the problems of Northern Ireland social surveys is provided
by household income by ethnic group.
• The National Survey for Wales has a larger sample size but has been
conducted only irregularly. With origins in a housing condition survey, it
has included a range of key social and economic variables, such as internet
access and IT usage.
Household income in Northern Ireland
•
•
•
The Northern Ireland Life and Times
Survey 2010 asked a question on
household income.
This showed that the percentage of
black and minority ethnic people
with household incomes greater than
£500 was somewhat lower than that
for white people.
The percentage with household
incomes of less than £200 per week
was also slightly higher than for white
people.
However, this result is based on a
very small sample – only 34 people
from minority ethnic groups who
were willing to answer the household
income question.
60.0
Percent of respondents (N=34)
•
50.0
40.0
30.0
Minority ethnic groups
20.0
White
10.0
0.0
0-£199
£200-499 £500-999
Over
£1000
Administrative statistics - schools
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A useful source of data on the characteristics of minority populations is school
statistics.
In Wales, Annual School Census uses a census-style classification of pupils, with an
expanded classification
In Northern Ireland, educational statistics are based on self-ascribed ethnicity.
In both countries, statistics on the percentage of school children eligible for free
school meals are produced.
This is an indicator of poverty. This identifies the extreme social exclusion of
groups like Irish Travellers and Gypsy/Roma/Traveller in Wales.
In Northern Ireland, ‘newcomer’ pupils and pupils for whom English is not their
first language are also identified.
School statistics can therefore identify the emergence of new minority populations
and their relative disadvantage.
However, they provide no definitive information on the size of the population of a
minority group. They also provide only a proxy indicator of disadvantage.
Wales – pupils on free school meals
•
•
•
The percentage of pupils on free
school meals is an indicator of
household income, since these are
families eligible for benefits.
Demonstrates the extreme exclusion
of GRT groups, but highlights the
poverty of Black-Africans and the
relative advantage of Indian and
Chinese people.
In Northern Ireland, school statistics
also highlight the newcomer status of
Roma and Korean school children,
the relative prosperity of South sian
people and disadvantage of Black
people.
Primary
and
Ethnic group
Primary Secondary Secondary
White
21
15.7
18.3
White British
21
15.8
18.3
Traveller
72.5
67.9
71.3
Gypsy / Roma
69.6
67.3
68.8
Any other White background
10.7
8.8
9.8
Mixed Parentage
27.2
20.8
24.2
White and Black Caribbean
36.4
28.4
32.5
White and Black African
33.3
24.8
29.5
White and Asian
21.7
17.1
19.6
Any other mixed background
23.4
16.6
20.3
Asian or Asian British
15.3
18.4
16.6
Indian
4.8
5.7
5.2
Pakistani
19.8
22.9
21.2
Bangladeshi
19.7
22.6
20.9
Any other Asian background
9.1
13
10.8
Black or Black British
49.8
44.2
47.2
Black Caribbean
20.2
25.6
23.3
Black African
52.7
49.5
51.3
Any other Black background
46.7
27.5
38
Chinese
6.3
6.6
6.4
Any other ethnic group
16.4
23.8
19.7
Ethnic background unknown or not
20.8
stated 14.1
17.2
All pupils
21.1
16.1
18.5
School statistics – Northern Ireland
Ethnic group
White
Irish traveller
Roma
Chinese/Hong Kong
Indian/Sri Lankan
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Black Caribbean
Black African
Black other
Korean
Mixed parentage
Other ethnic group
Total
Total
% of all
pupils
302473
861
84
1051
1135
278
632
54
468
315
21
2227
1960
311559
97.1
0.3
0
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.2
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.7
0.6
100
% of
% of
% of
pupils
pupils on newcomer
newcomer
FSM
pupils on
s
FSM
1.7
0
92.9
42.3
49
34.9
14.7
40.7
31.4
57.5
61.9
15.3
47.3
2.6
22.9
76.7
14.3
10.2
2.5
16.2
25.8
13
28
26.7
0
26.9
15.3
22.9
13.7
13.7
1.4
22.7
16.1
34
23.8
0
27.9
18.3
14.6
Conclusion
• Wales and Northern Ireland experienced rapid population growth, strongly
influenced by international migration between 2001 and 2011.
• Estimates of the overall ethnic composition of the population derived
from a range of administrative sources have been quite successful.
• However, national surveys are not successful in monitoring the social and
economic circumstances of minority ethnic and migrant groups.
• National-specific surveys are too small to yield reliable information.
• School statistics yields indicators of population change and socioeconomic disadvantage, but there is still a need for surveys large enough
to yield regular data on a range of social and economic variables which can
be robustly disaggregated by individual ethnic groups.,