40 years of using the LFS to assess and anticipate changing skill needs
Rob Wilson Institute for Employment Research
University of Warwick
The Labour Force Survey: past, present and future
BIS Conference Centre, 1 Victoria Street, London, Thursday 28th November 2013
Overview:
• Skills forecasting in the UK
• Measuring skills ‐ classifications and sources
• Use of the LFS in assessing changing skills structures
• Key research questions and some answers • Using the LFS in practice – Working Futures
• Emerging uses ‐ LMI for All
• Caveats and possible future developments
40 years of UK skills assessment
 Manpower planning and all that‐ Britain’s Medium Term 
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Employment Prospects ‐ the EITB, the TSA & MSC
The Thatcher years ‐Economic change and employment policy; the Review of the Economy and Employment
Evidence based policy – the National Skills Task Force ‐ new Projections of Occupations and Qualifications
The Sector Skills Development Agency and the Learning and Skills Council‐ Working Futures
UK Commission for Employment and Skills BLANK
continuation of Working Futures and ‐ LMI for All
Cedefop – pan European Skills Assessments
Text blank
40 years of UK skills assessment
 Manpower planning and all that‐ Britain’s Medium Term 




Employment Prospects ‐ the EITB, the TSA & MSC
The Thatcher years ‐Economic change and employment policy; the Review of the Economy and Employment
Evidence based policy – the National Skills Task Force ‐ new Projections of Occupations and Qualifications
The Sector Skills Development Agency and the Learning and Skills Council‐ Working Futures
UK Commission for Employment and Skills BLANK
continuation of Working Futures and ‐ LMI for All
Cedefop – pan European Skills Assessments
Text blank
Measuring skills
Occupations ‐ development of the Standard Occupational Classification (from WOCs to SOCs)
Qualifications ‐ highest formal qualification held
Sources of data on skills
 Census of Population
 Other sources (NES, ASHE, etc)
 LFS
Use of the LFS: Pros & cons. • Pros:  cornerstone of ONS’s LMI strategy
 increasing availability
 increasing sample size • Cons:
 still limited sample size
 weakness of proxy responses
 limitations of a household survey
Key research questions
• What drives the supply of skills?
• What are the factors influencing the changing demand for skills?
• What is the changing balance between the two?
How we use the LFS in practice
• Supply of skills
• monitoring numbers of people available (economically active) and in particular the breakdown by those formally qualified to different levels • modelling this using various techniques including pseudo cohorts created from the LFS (building stock‐flow and related models)
• Demand for skills • changing patterns of employment by occupation and by highest qualification held, focussing on shares within industries (linked to a multisectoral macroeconomic model)
Use of the LFS: Monitoring key trends
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•
•
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Sectors (national accounts data)
Occupations within sectors (LFS)
Qualifications (LFS)
Replacement needs also based on LFS Perceptions of changing skill structure •
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•
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1978 ‐ Britain’s Medium Term Employment Prospects
1981 ‐ Economic Change & Employment Policy
1982‐ 1997 ‐ Review of the Economy & Employment 1999 ‐2001 ‐ Projections of Occupations & Qualifications
2004 ‐ date ‐ Working Futures (1‐ 5)
From 2006 ‐ pan‐ European work ‐ use of the EU LFS
Key trends: increasingly well qualified Increasingly well qualified (% in employment)
 Tidy
Postgraduates
First Degree Graduates
All Graduates
Projections of
Occupations and
Work ing
Qualifications
Futures 4
% shares
1981
2010
1
9
6
21
7
30
Other highly qualified
All highly qualified
6
13
5
34
Not qualified at NVQ level 4 or 5
87
66
100
100
All levels
Key trends: the rise of the professionals
Text blank
Polarising job structure (% shares)
managers
professionals
2011 (WF 5, UK)
associate professionals
clerical
skilled crafts
service occupations
sales occupations
1978 (ECEP, UK)
machine operatives
elementary occupations
0.0
20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Recent developments: Open data • New uses and new demands ‐ LMI for All
 aims and objectives ‐ open access to official data to provide useful information for careers guidance and advice;  demand for detail ‐ but conflicts with confidentiality, privacy, statistical reliability
• Filling the data gaps – use of regression analysis and other estimation techniques
Recent developments: The European context
• Cedefop pan‐European forecasts:
extension of Working Futures to cover 30+ countries based primarily around the Eurostat LFS
Some outstanding problems: where have all the scientists gone?
• Census /LFS inconsistencies? Where have LFS‐Census (differences in % employment all the professionals (especially scientists shares, England and Wales, 2011)
‐1.0
‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
gone? managers
• Proxy responses
2.5
professionals
associate professionals
clerical
skilled crafts
service occupations
sales occupations
machine operatives
elementary occupations
LFS‐Census (2011)
Conclusions and possible future developments
• What would we do without the LFS?
• How can we improve on it?
• Need for an independent employers survey (e.g: US Occupational Employment Statistics survey) Further information and links:
Working Futures: http://www.ukces.org.uk/search?keywords=Working+Futures+
2010‐2020&type=all
LMI for all: http://www.ukces.org.uk/ourwork/resaerch/lmi/lmi‐for‐all
Cedefop pan‐European Projections:
http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/about‐
cedefop/projects/forecasting‐skill‐demand‐and‐
supply/forecasting‐skill‐demand‐and‐supply.aspx and :
http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/20612.aspx
Rob Wilson, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick,
COVENTRY, CV4 7AL
r.a.wilson@warwick.ac.uk; Tel:+(44) 2476-523530