Feb 2016
No.270
Spanish Agriculture in the Little Divergence
Carlos Álvarez-Nogal, Leandro Prados de la Escosura
and Carlos Santiago-Caballero
WORKING PAPER SERIES
Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy
Department of Economics
SpanishAgricultureintheLittleDivergence12
CarlosÁlvarez-Nogal(UniversidadCarlosIII),
LeandroPradosdelaEscosura(UniversidadCarlosIII,CEPR,andCAGE),
CarlosSantiago-Caballero(UniversidadCarlosIII)
Abstract
ThispaperexplorestheroleofagricultureinSpain’scontributiontothelittle
divergenceinEurope.Onthebasisoftithes,long-runtrendsinagriculturaloutputare
drawn.Afteralongperiodofrelativestability,outputsufferedaseverecontraction
during1570-1620,followedbystagnationto1650,andsteadyexpansionthereafter.
Outputperheadshiftedfromarelativelyhightoalowpaththatpersisteduntilthe
nineteenthcentury.Thedeclineinagriculturaloutputperheadandperworkerfroma
relativelyhighlevelcontributedtoSpainfallingbehindand,hence,totheLittle
DivergenceinEurope.Outputperworkermovedalonglabourforceinagricultureover
thelongrun,supportingthedepictionofSpainasafrontiereconomy.Institutional
factors,inacontextoffinancialandmonetaryinstabilityandwar,alongclimatic
anomalies,provideexplanatoryhypothesesthatdeservefurtherresearch.
Keywords:agriculture,tithes,earlymodernSpain,labourproductivity,little
divergence
JELClassification:N53,O13,Q10
CarlosÁlvarez-Nogal,
canogal@clio.uc3m.es
LeandroPradosdelaEscosura,
leandro.prados.delaescosura@uc3m.es
andCarlosSantiago-Caballero
carlos.santiago@uc3m.es
DepartamentodeCienciasSociales,
UniversidadCarlosIII,
28903Getafe(Madrid),Spain
1
2
ToGonzaloAnesandÁngelGarcíaSanz,inmemoriam.
WeacknowledgecommentsbySteveBroadberry,BruceCampbell,PatrickO’Brien,BlancaSánchezAlonso,andparticipantsattheHEDG/CAGE/CEPRWorkshoponRecentDevelopmentsinHistorical
NationalAccounting,UniversityofSouthernDenmark,Odense,April2015;theEuropeanHistorical
EconomicsSocietyConference,Pisa,September2015;andtheEconomicandSocialHistorySeminar,
NuffieldCollege,Oxford,February2016.FernandoS.Rodrigokindlyprovideduswithrainfalldatafor
Andalusia.BasvanLeeuwenandPaoloMalanimasharedtheirdataandprovideduswithsome
clarifications.DavidReherkindlyallowedustousehisunpublishedbaptismregionalestimatesand
EnriqueLlopisAgelángaveusdetailedexplanationsabouttheconstructionofhisownbaptismseriesat
regionallevel.ResearchassistancebyJuanaLamotedeGrignon,AlbertoMurcia,andTeresaPradosde
laEscosuraisgreatlyappreciated.OurresearchhasbeensupportedbySpain’sMinisteriodeEconomíay
CompetitividadGrantECO2012-38028.
Introduction
Inrecentyears,quantitativeresearchhasshednewlightontheeconomic
performanceofearlymodernSpainthatshowsadeclinerelativetoWesternEurope
(Yun-Casalilla,1994;Carreras,2003;Álvarez-NogalandPradosdelaEscosura,2007,
2013).ComparativehistoryalsosuggeststhatSpain(alongItaly)fellbehindfroman
initialadvantageposition,whileBritainandtheNetherlandsforgedahead,
contributingtothelittledivergenceandthereversaloffortuneinEurope(Broadberry,
2013).SirJohnElliott’soldplea,“‘tocompareSpanishconditionswiththoseofother
contemporarysocieties”(Elliot,1961:55)wouldhave,thus,beenanswered.Why
Spainfellbehindremains,however,elusive.Explanationsarehighlyspeculative,
includingrecentonesthatstresstheinsecurityofpropertyrightsandtheimpactof
absolutismontradeandcolonialinstitutionsinacontextofextractiveinstitutions
(AcemogluandRobinson,2012:218-222),andtheinstitutionalfragmentation,that
wouldhavehinderedmarketintegration(Grafe,2012).Beyondtheissueofhow
accuratethesegrandinterpretationsare,aprecisedescriptionofthefactorsand
mechanismthatdroveSpain’sfallingbehindisneeded.Publicfinance,tradeand
credit,urbanactivities,andagriculturalperformanceneedtobequantifiedandtheir
interconnectionsestablishedbeforeanoverallassessmentcanbeprovided.Onlythen
woulditbepossible,asElliottsuggested,isolatinganyfeaturesuniquetoSpain.
“Theconditionsofthesoilandthenatureofland-holding”(Elliott,1961:56)
capturedhistorians’attentionduringthelatetwentiethcentury.Economichistorians
ofearlymodernSpainhaveusedindirectinformationonreligioustaxes-thetithe,in
particular-toderivetrendsinoutput.Studiesofmaincrops’output,mostofthem
datingfromthe1970sandearly1980s,areabundant.Althoughregionalagricultural
outputhasoccasionallybeencomputed,monographsweremainlycarriedoutatlocal
orprovinciallevel.3Thedauntingeffortrequiredtounifyingandanalysingdozensof
studiesfordifferentproductsindifferentregionsandatdifferentperiodsoftimemay
3
Seefootnote11below.Atthe2008conferenceoftheSpanisheconomicassociationaggregate
estimatesofagriculturaloutputonthebasisoftitheswerepresentedforsomeregions.
2
havediscouragedhistoriansfromattemptingtoprovideawiderspatialpicture.4The
onlyattemptatassessingtheevolutionofagriculturaloutputinSpainonthebasis
titheserieswasmadebyGonzaloAnesandÁngelGarcíaSanz(1982)inanoverview
groundedonRicardo’stheoryofdifferentialrent(Ricardo,1817,1951).Theyargued
that,duringthesixteenthandeighteenthcenturies,foodstuffs’relativepricesrosein
responsetoincreasingurbandemand-aconsequenceofdemographicexpansion-,
leadingtoanexpansionoflandundertheplough,attheexpenseofpastureand
forest.Yieldsperseedandperhectaredeclined,aslessfertilelandwascultivatedand
technologicalchangewasmainlyabsent.Asaresult,landrentincreasedandlabour
productivityandrealwagesfell.Conversely,duringtheseventeenthcentury,as
populationstagnatedandurbandemandcontracted,relativepricesforfoodstuffsfell
andmarginallandswererevertedtopastureandforest.Yields,wages,andlabour
productivityrecoveredwhilelandrentsdeclined.AnesandGarcíaSanznuancedtheir
interpretationbyemphasisingregionaldisparitiesinagriculturalperformanceduring
theearlymodernera.
Morerecently,indirectestimatesofSpain’sregionalandnationaloutputhave
beenderivedusingademandfunctionapproach(Álvarez-NogalandPradosdela
Escosura,2007,2013)inwhichagriculturalconsumptionperheadisestimatedand,
timespopulation,absoluteconsumptionderived.5Then,afteradjustmentfornetfood
imports,absoluteoutputisobtained.
ThemainresultsobtainedfromthedemandapproachforearlymodernSpain
suggestthatoutputperhead,afterpeakingpriortotheBlackDeath(1348),declined
frommid-fifteenthtomid-seventeenthcentury–althoughitslevelremainedhighuntil
4
Difficulties to interpreting the information provided by archival records on tithes have also led
historianstoavoidusingdatanotcollecteddirectlybythemselves.
5
Realconsumptionperheadofagriculturalgoods(C)canbeexpressedas
ε
μ
γ
C=aP Y M [1].
InwhichPandMdenoteagricultural,andnon-agriculturalpricesrelativetotheconsumerpriceindex,
respectively;Ystandsforrealdisposableincomeperhead;ε,μ,andγarethevaluesofownprice,
incomeandcrosspriceelasticities,respectively;andarepresentsaconstant.
3
the1550s-and,then,stabilizedatalowlevel,beforeanotherepisodeofdeclinetook
placeinthesecondhalfoftheeighteenthcentury(Álvarez-NogalandPradosdela
Escosura,2013).
Thesefindingsmaybeconsidered,tosomeextent,explicitconjecturesasthey
arebaseduponlimitedempiricalevidenceonrealwageratesandlandrents–usedas
proxiesfordisposableincomeperhead-,andhypotheticalvaluesforincome-andown
priceelasticities.6However,theresultsarerobusttoalternativespecificationsusing
differentproxiesforrealdisposableincomeperheadandelasticitiesvalues.7
Constructingdirectestimatesofaggregateoutputseemssofarunfeasible.
Thus,informationontithesprovidesanalternativeproceduretoderiveoutput
measuresthat,althoughalsoindirect,arguablyrequirelessstringentassumptionsthan
thoseinvolvedinthedemandapproach.8Thus,itisourpurposetoprovide,onthe
basisoftithes,estimatesofagriculturaloutputinearlymodernSpainthatwillbe
comparedtotheresultsfromthedemandapproach.
Grainwas,byfar,themostimportantcomponentofagriculturaloutputinlate
medievalandearlymodernSpain,andalthoughitlostgroundinsomeregions(coastal
areas,inparticular),itstillkeptitspredominanceinagricultureby1800,
amountingtonearlyhalfthevalueofagriculturaloutputinthe1790s(PoloyCatalina,
1803).Continuousseriesforgraintithescanbetracedbacktotheearlyfifteenth
centuryinOldCastileorAndalusia,formanyregionsinthesixteenthcentury,andfor
practicallyallofthemfromtheseventeenthtotheearlynineteenthcentury.However,
itisgenerallyacceptedthatthereliabilityoftithesasaproxyforagriculturaloutput
decreasedsignificantlyaftertheNapoleonicinvasion,soweset1800astheendyear
6
Thisapproachhasbeencriticisedonthegroundsthatbyusingwageratesasaproxyfordisposable
incomeaconsiderablemarginoferrorcanbeintroducedintheestimates(LlopisAgelánandGonzález
Mariscal,2010).
7
Seedetaileddiscussionofalternativeproxiesforrealdisposableincomeperhead,includingthe
shortcomingsofrealwagerates,ininmedievalandearlymodernSpaininÁlvarez-NogalandPradosde
laEscosura(2013:4-9).
8
Thisishistorians’usualassumption.See,forexample,LlopisAgelánandGonzálezMariscal(2010:15).
4
forourestimates.Inadditiontocereal,tithesformajoragriculturalcrops:wineand
oliveoilbutalsolegumes,fruit,andanimalproduceareavailableforthemain
producingregionsfrom1500onwards.
Ourmainfindingscanbesummarizedasfollows.Onthebasisoftithesitcanbe
shownthatagriculturaloutputwasatahighlevelover1500-1570.Then,adecline
tookplaceintwophases,asharpbutshortoneinthe1570sand1580s,followedbya
milderandsteadyonetothe1610s.Afteraperiodofstagnation,recoveryfollowed
fromthemid-seventeenthtothemid-eighteenthcentury,whenthehighestlevelsof
theearlymodernerawereachieved.Then,afterasharpcontractioninthe1760s,
moderateexpansiontookplaceatalongalowerpathduringthelateeighteenth
century.
Ourdecadalestimatesofagriculturaloutputperheadreinforcetheviewofa
dramaticdiscontinuityinthelastdecadesofthesixteenthcentury,inwhichagriculture
shiftedfromahighpathalowonethatprevaileduntilthenineteenthcentury.
Trendsinagriculturaloutputpereconomicallyactivepopulationshowlongrun
declineinSpain(aswasalsothecaseinItaly)incontrastwithitsriseinBritainand
Holland.Thus,thecomparisonbetweenSpain(andItaly)andNorth-WesternEurope
(BritainandHolland)highlightstheroleplayedbyagricultureintheLittleDivergence
withinEurope,aswellasareversaloffortune,sincefromanadvantageousposition
Mediterraneancountriesfellbehindduringtheearlymodernera.
Moreover,outputperworkerandlabourforceinagricultureevolvedalongside
overthelongrun,expandingupto1570,decliningtomid-seventeenthcentury,and
recoveringsteadilythereafter,whichsuggeststhedepictionofSpainasafrontier
economy.Therefore,asanalternativetotheusualneo-Malthusianexplanation,we
hypothesisethattheimpactoffinancialpoliciesinanenvironmentofmonetary
instabilityandwar,togetherwithclimaticanomalies,explainsthecollapsein
agriculturaloutperheadandperworkerbetweenthelatesixteenthandtheearly
seventeenthcenturiesanditsslowrecovery,asincentivestoallocatelandandlabour
toagriculturalproductiondiminished.
5
TithesasaProxyforAgriculturalProduction
Titheshavebeentraditionallyconsideredamajortaxinthepre-industrialera,
particularlyduringtheMiddleAgeswhenmostoftheEuropeanpopulationlivedon
agricultureandcentralizedfiscalsystemshadnotbeendeveloped(Pöschl,1927).The
tithewasanecclesiasticaltax,imposedonallfarmingproductionincludingthe
incomesobtainedfromlivestock.Nominally,thetitherepresented10percentoftotal
productionbut,inpractice,itssharefluctuatedandusuallyremainedbelowthis
percentage.InMediterraneanEuropethemostimportantproductstaxedweregrains
(wheat,barley,oatsandrye),wine,andoliveoil.
TitherecordscanbetracedbackintimetotheHighMiddleAgesbutthe
survivalofwrittensourcesreducesthetimespaninwhichtheyareavailable.Although
warsandepidemicsmadedifficulttheircollection,inRomanCatholiccountriesthe
tithesdidnotvanishordisappearaltogetheruntiltheFrenchRevolutionandthe
NapoleonicWars,providingcontinuousseriesforseveralcenturies.However,
researchersdidnotexploittheabundanceoftitherecordsinmostofEuropeuntilthe
twentiethcentury.Earlierstudiesfocusedonexplainingtheexistenceofthetithe,the
methodsusedforitscollection,orthetaxlegislation(Viard,1909-14;Borah,1941;
Boyd,1952).Itwasonlysincethe1960swhenaquantitativeapproachwasadopted
forthestudyoftitheswiththemainobjectiveofreconstructingfiscaltimeseriesthat
wouldcapturethelongrunevolutionofagriculturaloutput.
ThenewmethodologyintroducedbytheAnnalesSchool,allowedtoexploitthe
potentialoftithestoanalyseeconomicandsocialchangeinearlymodernFrance,as
wellassheddinglightonothereconomicandsocialvariables(prices,yields,
productivity,typesofcultivation,livingstandards)(Goubert,1960;Baehrel,1961).
Labrousse(1962)initiatedasystematicanalysisofagriculturalproductioninpreindustrialFranceusingthetithesasthemainsourcethatwassoonextendedto
regionalstudies(LeRoyLadurie,1966;Morineau,1970;Deyon,1967;LeRoyLadurie
andGoy,1972).Titheseriescollectionbecameacollectiveeffortthatin1969
materialisedinapublicationincludingmorethan20studiesatlocallevel.Together
withFrance,thevolumealsoincludedregionssuchasAndalusia(Spain)andSicily
(Italy).Later,in1977,GoyandLeRoyLaduriehostedaninternationalconferenceon
6
titheswiththeparticipationofmorethan60historiansfrom17countries.Thenew
studiesallowedtheextensionoftheavailabledatasetinbothchronological(fromthe
fourteenthtothenineteenthcenturies)andgeographicalterms(EuropeandLatin
America)(GoyandLeRoyLadurie,1982).Thewidegeographicalcoverageoftithes
openedthedebateaboutthehomogeneityofthedataandthepossibilityofcarrying
outcomparativestudies.Difficultiesconcerningthedirectconversionbetweentithes
andagrarianoutput,ascollectionmethodschangedovertimeandvariedacross
regions;theresistanceofpeasantstopaythetax;thewaytitheswerecollected
(directlyorrentedouttoprivateagents)andpaid(inkindorcash),weremainissuesin
thedebate.9
TheimpulsegiventotithesinFrance(Neveux,1980;Bois,1984;Derville,1987),
alsoencouragedtheresearchinothercountriesinEurope:Belgium(Ruwet,1964),
Spain(CaboAlonso,1955;AnesandLeFlem,1965;Anes,1970;Ponsot,1986),
Hungary(KirillyandKiss,1968),andLatinAmerica(Borah,1949).Morerecently,
researchontitheshasextendedtoSweden(Leijonhufvud,2001;Olssonand
Sevensson,2010)andEngland(Evans,1976;Kain,1979;Dodds,2004,2007).10
Thankstotheabundanceofrecordskeptinecclesiasticalandnationalarchives
Spainis,perhaps,thecountryinwhichresearchontitheshasbeenaswidespreadasin
France.Inadditiontothewealthofthearchivalrecords,itisworthstressingthatthe
informationprovidedbytithesisthesameforallSpanishregionsandkingdoms
regardlesstheirdifferentfiscalsystems.Aftertheresearcheffortcarriedoutinthe
1970sand1980s,andstillgoingon,awidesampleoftitherecordsatlocalisavailable
formostregions.11However,anaggregateviewofagriculturalperformanceatnational
9
SeethediscussioninGoyandLeRoyLadurie(1982)andLeRoyLadurieandGoy(1982).
10
Duetotheabundanceofalternativesourcessuchasmanors’accountingrecords,titheshavebeen
largelyneglectedinEngland.ThisfactmayalsoreflecttheinferiorqualityofEnglishtithereturns(we
owethisremarktoBruceCampbell).
11
IncludingAndalusia(Granada,GarzónPareja,1974,1982;Malaga,BenítezSánchez-Blanco,1982;
Seville,LaderoQuesada,1979;Ponsot,1986),Extremadura(PereiraIglesias,1990;LlopisAgelán,1979),
Murcia(Lemeneunier,1982),NewCastile(Toledo,López-Salazar,PérezandMartínGalán,1981),Old
Castile-Leon(Segovia,GarcíaSanz,1982;Leon,SebastiánAmarilla,1992;Zamora,ÁlvarezVázquez,
7
levelonthebasisoftithesis,withtheexceptionoftheearlyattemptbyAnesand
GarcíaSanz(1982),stillmissing.
Howreliablearetithesasaproxyforagriculturaloutputhasbeenwidely
debated.Aswithalltaxes,producerscouldhidepartoftheharvestdependingonthe
degreeofcoercionandenforcement.Infact,duetoitsfiscalnature,titheshavebeen
questionedastheymaybiasoutputdownwards.Titheevasioncouldvaryovertime.As
theproductiondiversified,theopportunitiesforevasionincreased.Tithescovered
mainproductsandnewcrops(i.e.,maize,potatoes)couldescapethemintheearly
yearsofcultivation.Althoughtitheswerecollectedinkind,occasionallytheywerepaid
incash,sodeflationisrequiredtodrawtrendsinoutput.Also,insomeinstances,
institutionsleasedtithecollectiontoprivateagentswhobidfortherighttocollect
them,sorecordsdonotreflectactualproductionbutthevalueofthewinningbid.In
suchcases,deflationisalsorequired.Lastly,dependingonseveralcircumstances,
someproducerswerepartiallyortotallyexemptfrompayingthetitheinspecificyears
(i.e.,Excusado).
Nonetheless,thewayinwhichthecollectionofthetitheswascarriedout
preventedmostoftheseproblems.Thecalculationofthetithetookplaceinthesame
fields,beforeeachproducerwasevenabletomovetheproduction.Thecollectorwas
alocalagentandhissalarywasconnectedtothetotalamountcollected.Thetithewas
estimatedfromtheharvest,beforeanyamountcouldbesubtractedforseedingorto
payrents(MelónJiménez,1987).Ifthelocalknowledgeandincentivesofthecollector
toguaranteeafairtaxationwasnotenough,thelocalpriestthatreceivedpartofthe
tithealsoactedasasupervisor.Inordertoavoidcheating,thepriestreadinpublicthe
namesandtheamountspaidbyeachproducer,andtherestcouldexpresstheir
objectionsiftheyfoundanyirregularity(Santiago-Caballero,2011).Thesemechanisms
guaranteedthattheamountspaidwerecorrect,atleastuntiltheinstitutionalturmoil
causedbytheNapoleonicinvasioninthenineteenthcenturymadethecollectionof
1984),BasqueCountry(BilbaoandFernándezdePinedo,1982),Galicia(EirasRoel,1982),Aragon
(LatorreCria,2007),Balearics(Mallorca,Vidal,1978),Catalonia(Badosa,1978;Fradera,1978),and
Valencia(ArditLucas,1989,andPalopRamos,1982).
8
thetithemorecomplicated.Therewerealsoincentivesonthesideoftheproducerin
ordertopaythetithes.Intheabsenceoflandregistries,thepaymentofthetithesalso
workedasaninformalinstitutiontoguaranteepropertyrightsonthelandsthatthey
ownedorrented,andthereforeitspaymentwasalsoaguaranteeofthoserights
(Santiago-Caballero,2014).
Furthermore,inSpain,tithereceiptsweredividedintothreecomponents:one,
accruingtothebishop;another,tothelocalpriest;andathirdone,dividedbetween
thekingandtheparish.Thediversityofbeneficiariesmultipliedtheaccountingrecords
availableallowingadirectcomparisonbetweendifferentsources.Thetazmíabooks,
forinstance,thatrecordedtheamountsthatwerepaidbyeachpeasant,werekeptin
eachparish.Thedatafromthissourcecanbecomparedtotherecordsthatwerekept
inprivate,ecclesiastical,ornationalarchives.
Tithesare,thus,consideredtorepresentroughlyafixedproportionoftotal
production(GarcíaSanz,1979)andtoprovidereliableoutputtrendsoverthelongrun,
constitutingauniquesourceforthestudyofagriculture’sperformanceinearly
modernSpain.ThissituationwasonlybrokenbytheFrenchinvasionin1808whenthe
socialandpoliticalturmoilfacilitatedpeasants’passiveresistancetopaythetithe
(AnesandGarcíaSanz,1982).
Method
UnlikemostSpanishstudiesthatusearegionaland,often,alocalapproach,in
thispaperanationalperspectivehasbeenchosen.Thus,aggregatesformaincrops
havebeenconstructedonthebasisofanextensivedatasetoftitheseriesatregional
andlocallevels.Convertingawidearrayofaheterogeneousseriesintoasetof
relativelyhomogeneousandcomparableseriesacrossspacehasbeenapainstaking
andtime-consumingprocess.Wehavebeenabletogathertitherecordsfromasearly
asthefourteenthcentury.However,giventhesketchynatureoftheearlyrecordsand
9
thedifficultytolinkthemtolaterseries,ouragriculturaloutputestimatesonlycover
from1500onwards.12
Thechoiceofaproceduretoaggregatemultipleseriesintohomogenousand
continuousserieswasakeydecision. Oneoftheavailablechoicesatourdisposalwas
theutilizationofeconometrictechniquessuchaspaneldataregressionorprincipal
componentsanalysisthatcouldhavehelpustoderivestandardisedseries(Clark,
2002).However,weconsideredthatanadvancedstatisticalmanipulationofthe
originalserieswouldimplyloosingimportantinformationaboutlocaltrendsthat
wouldbedilutedintotheaggregatefigureswhilerenderingtheresultingseriesuseless
foreconometrictreatment.Whenthesourcesmadeitpossible,ourfavoured
approachwasworkingontheseriesatalocallevel.Thefirststepwasestablishing
whethertheserieswerecompleteonanannualbasis.Inmostofthecaseswefound
gapsintherecordsthatrangedfromjustoneyeartolongerperiodsoftime.Theway
inwhichwedealtwithmissingvaluesdependedontheamountofinformationlost
andontheavailabilityofsources.Whenthenumberofmissingobservationswas
small,wederivedthembyextrapolatingtheresultsfromseriesinthesameregionthat
presentedasimilarbehaviourduetoanalogousclimaticandsoilconditions.Inorderto
obtainthebestestimation,weusedasproxytheseriesthatweregeographicallyclose
totheonetobeestimated.Missingyearswereinterpolatedusingtheavailableseries
thatshowedahighercorrelationintheyearsaroundthemissingvalues.13Inour
12
Giventhelackofconsistentdatanoadjustmenthasbeenmadeforcropspartiallyortotallyexempt
frompayingthetithe(i.e.,“Excusado”and“diezmosprivativos”)asitwouldhaverequiredapplyingan
arbitrarycorrection.Moreover,until1761,“Excusado”wascollectedthroughadistributionofayearly
lump-sum payment among bishops and other ecclesiastical institutions, and such distribution was
estimatedusingtithes.
13
Whenwefoundmissingvalues,weinterpolatedthemusingothertitheseriesinthesameregionthat
presentedahighcorrelationwiththeincompleteone.However,ourexperienceshowsthatseriesthat
presentedhighcorrelationsintheverylongrundonothavetonecessarilyhavehighcorrelationsinthe
shortterm.Forthatreasonweestimatedthecorrelationoftheincompleteserieswiththecomplete
onesaroundthemissingyearsandnotforthewholesample.Forinstance,ifforthesameregionwehad
severalseriesbetween1500and1800butoneofthemhadmissingvaluesbetween1550-1555,we
10
opinion,whentheamountofyearstobeestimatedwasmanageable,thisprocedure
offersthemostreliablewaytofillingthegapsintheseriesandprovidesthebest
possibleestimations.
Whentheamountofmissingvalueswaslargerortheexistenceofalternative
localseriesmorescarce,wehadtorelyonalternativemethods.Inthesecases,we
filledthemissingvaluesusingtheaverageweightthatthelocalseriestobeestimated
didrepresentintheaggregateprovincialsample.14However,wewereawareofthe
factthattheweightsoftheserieswithinthesamplechangedovertimeand,therefore,
thatwehadtomakeadjustmentstocalculatemissingyearsinthesamelocationthat
wereseparatedbylongperiodsoftime.Forthatreasonwedecidedtore-calculatethe
weightofthemunicipalityaroundeachgap.Theperiodsusedtoestimatetheweights
thereforevariedwithinthesamemunicipalitydependingontheyearsthathadtobe
estimated,afactthataddsrobustnesstoourestimation.Oncewehadestimatedthe
missingyearsforallthelocalseries,wesimplyaggregatedtheminordertogenerate
theprovincialseries.Whenwecountedonlocalseriesfromdifferentauthorsforthe
sameprovinceandperiod,weusedtheoverlappingperiodsinordertosplicethem
andderiveasingleseries.Wealsofollowedthesameprocessinthosecasesinwhich
theseriescamefromthesamesourcebutdifferentlocalserieswereavailablefor
differentperiodsoftime,andwesplicedthemthroughonthebasisoftheoverlapping
years.
Asaresultofalonganddetailedprocesswederivedseriesatprovincialor
regionallevelthatwere,then,combinedinordertoobtainnationalaggregatesforthe
maincrops:cereals,wine,oliveoil,legumes,fruit,andanimalproduce(includingwool
andsilk).Unfortunately,exceptforcereals,nocompletedataexistatregionallevel,so
thereisnoenoughinformationtoprovideregionalestimatesofagriculturaloutput.
proxiedthosemissingvaluesusingthemostsimilarseriesintheregionaroundthatperiod(1530-1580
forexample)andnotforthewhole300years.
14
Forexample,ifwehadastudywithtenlocalseriesandtheonewiththemissingyearsrepresenteda
20percentofthetotalproduction,weusedthatpercentagetoestimatethegapsfromtheinformation
containedintheothernine.
11
Itisforcerealsforwhichtheavailabilityofdataiswideroverspaceandtime
withdifferentseriescoveringAndalusia(threeoutoffourprovinces,Seville–which
includedalsoCadizandHuelva-,Cordoba,andGranada,whichincludedMalaga),
Extremadura,Murcia,NewCastile,OldCastile-Leon(includingBurgos–whichalso
includedRiojaandSantander-,Leon–whichincludedAsturias-,Palencia,Segovia,
Soria,Valladolid,andZamora),Galicia,BasqueProvinces,andtheCanaries,withinthe
KingdomofCastile;plusAragon,Balearics,Catalonia,andValencia,intheKingdomof
Aragon;plustheKingdomofNavarre.Asinthecaseofindividualseries,wehadto
interpolatemissingvalueswiththehelpofgeographicallycloseseries.Wethen
constructedregionalseriesbyassumingthatseriesformissingprovincesevolve
alongsidethoseforwhichdatawereavailable.15Alternatively,missingvaluesforodd
yearswerelog-linearlyinterpolated.
Asforwine,tithesinformationwasrestrictedtoAndalusia(Cadiz,Huelva,
Seville,andCordoba),OldCastile(Rioja,since1550,andSegovia,since1610),Basque
(since1537),Navarre(since1568),Aragon,andCatalonia(since1670).16Theseregions
represented,nonetheless,themainproducingareas.
InthecaseofoliveoilinformationonlyrelatedtoAndalusia(Sevilleand
Cordoba,since1581),Extremadura(since1697),Balearics(1716-69)andCatalonia
(1750-1800).Again,thesewerethemainproducersinearlymodernSpain.
15
Thus,Cordobapre-1580serieswereassumedtoevolvealongsidethoseforSeville’s.Inthecaseof
EastAndalusia,seriesforMalagawereused,completedformissingyearswiththoseforGranada(17901800).InthecaseofBurgos,theseriesfor1402-1519weresplicedwiththosefor1590onwardswith
theavailableseriesforRiojathatwaslargelypartoftheBurgosprovincebeforethe1833reform.The
BurgosserieswereconsideredrepresentativeforOldCastilebefore1520.Segovia,1550-70,assuming
itsevolutionwassimilartothatofValladolidandPalencia;1523-50,alongZamora;pre-1523,Burgos.
SeriesforZamorawereassumedtorepresenttheevolutionoftheseriesforSegovia,León,andover
1523-1550.ForNavarre,wecompletedtheseriesbyassumingitmovedalongtheBasqueProvinces
since1639.
16
RiojawasassumedtoevolveasAragonduringtheyears1502-1550.Navarrewasassumedtoevolve
alongRiojafrom1626onwards.
12
Informationabouttithesonlegumesandfruitisscantandweonlymanagedto
gettithesforBalearicsandCataloniafrom1649onwards,andforValenciasince
1499.17Theseareasrepresent,nonetheless,morethanone-thirdofthevalueof
productioninthe1799Census.
Inthecaseofanimalproduce,tithesareavailableforOldCastile(Segoviaand
Soria),Extremadura,Murcia,Aragon,andValencia.18
Howtoweightprovincialseriesforeachcropposesamajorchallenge.The
1799CensusofFruitsandManufacturesprovidestheonlyavailableestimateof
quantitiesandvaluesofagriculturalandindustrialgoodsforearlymodernSpain.Ithas
apoorreputationlargelyduetoJosepFontana’s(1967)severecritique.Nonetheless,
Fontanalargelyexoneratedcerealproductionfromhiscriticismandsuggesteda
correctionforoliveoiloutput.Unfortunatelythereisnoalternativetothe1799
Census.ApossibilitywouldbetoderiveweightsfromthehighlyreputedCadastreof
Ensenadaforthe1750s,butonlycoverstheKingdomofCastile,leavingasidethe
KingdomofAragon(includingAragon,Balearics,Catalonia,andValencia)andthe
KingdomofNavarre.Furthermore,nodistinctionismadeintheCadastre’s“respuestas
generales”(aggregateresults)bycrops,onlybetweencropsandanimalproduce
(MatillaTascón,1947;Grupo’75,1977).
Were-computedthevalueoftotaloutputforthe1799benchmarkby,firstly,
correctingoliveoilproduction,assuggestedbyFontana;then,valuingeachcropata
singlepricederivedastheweightedaverageofprovincialprices.Usingasinglesetof
priceshelpstocorrectfortheriskofspuriousprovincialprices(alsopointedoutby
Fontana),whileprovidesuswithconsistentestimates.Furthermore,itimpliesa
purchasingpowerparityadjustmentacrossSpanishprovinces.Thevalueofagricultural
17
CataloniawasassumedtoevolveasBalearicsafter1771.InthecaseofValencia,fruitsindexwas
backwardsprojectedwithvegetablesindexfor1500-1552.
18
InthecaseofOldCastile,tithesweretakenfromSegovia(wool),1573-1800andSoria(lamb),1681-
1800.InthecaseofExtremadura,tithesoncattleandsheepwereusedfrom1692onwards.ForMurcia,
tithesonwoolwereusedfor1650-1800.TithesforAragon(lamb)coveredfrom1610onwards.Tithes
forValencia(livestock)coveredtheentireperiod,1500-1800.
13
outputc.1799resultedfromaggregatingthevalueofeachcropobtainedby
multiplyingitsquantitybyitsaveragenationalprice.
We,then,usedprovincial(regional)sharesinthevalueofeachmaincropin
1799asweightstoconstructnationalvolumeindicesforeachofthem,expressed
using1790/99as100.
Trendsinmaincrops’outputarepresentedinTable1andFigure1.Itcanbe
observedthattheirtendenciesarehighlycoincidental,althoughacloserlookshows
distinctivebehaviouramongdifferentcrops.Outputappearstohavegrownacrossthe
boarduptotheearly1570s.Theexpansionofwineproductionappearsremarkable
duringthefirsttwo-thirdsofthesixteenthcenturyremainingathighoutputlevels
until1590.Theincreaseintheoutputofwine,ahigh-incomeelasticgood,isconsistent
withtheprogressexperiencedbytheSpanisheconomy.Thisdepictionalsofitsolive
oil,amorevolatileproduct.Mostcropsfell,then,to1620,althougholiveoilreacheda
troughinthe1580sandexpandedthereafter,whilecerealsandwinereachedtheir
troughlaterinthe1630sand1640s,respectively.Therecoveryandexpansionof
animalproduceandlegumesandfruitsprovidedanoffsettingelementtomaincrops’
contractionover1620-1650.Betweenmid-seventeenthandmid-eighteenthcenturies
allcropsexpanded,althoughitwasinitiallysluggishinthecasesofcerealsandolive
oil.Thebehaviouroffruitsandlegumesconveys–withsomereservationduetotithes’
poorcoverage-theviewofproductswhosedemandwasraisingovertime,as
contractedlessintensivelybetweenmid-sixteenthandearlyseventeenthcenturyand
grewaboveaveragethereafter.Animalproduceexperiencedstrongerexpansion
betweenearlyseventeenthandmid-eighteenthcentury,inwhichtheincreasing
weightofstabled(estante)livestockthroughouttheeighteenthcentury,relativetothe
transhumantlivestock,mayhaveplayedarole(PhillipsandPhillips,1997).Frommideighteenthcentury,afterthe1760scontraction,outputgrowthdeceleratedacrossthe
board,withtheexceptionofoliveoil,until1800.
Thevaluationoflivestockoutputinthe1799Censusraisesaproblemasthe
stockoflivestock(numberofdifferenttypeofcattle)ismixedupwithanimalproduce
(i.e.,wool).Therefore,thetotalvalueofanimaloutputshouldbereduced,inprinciple,
tooffsetitsover-exaggeration.However,livestockfiguresaregrosslyunderestimated
14
inthe1799Census,asacomparisonwiththoseofthe1750sCadastreofEnsenadafor
theKingdomofCastile-whichroughlydoublethefiguresfortheCastilianprovinces-,
suggests(GarcíaSanz,1985,1994).Sincethereisnoevidenceofamajorcatastrophe
inCastilianlivestockduringthesecondhalfoftheeighteenthcentury,such
discrepancyevidencesadownwardbiasinthe1799Census.Itisworthnotingthatthe
shareofanimalproduceinagriculturaloutputwas29percentin1910(Pradosdela
Escosura,2003:50).Giventheexpansionofcrops,largelyattheexpenseoflivestock,
throughoutthenineteenthcentury,ashareof31percentforanimalproducein1799
doesseemreasonable,sowehaveacceptedit.19
We,then,needtoconstructanindexofagriculturaloutputovertime.An
optionwouldbeweightingthequantityindexforeachcropbyitssharein1799
agriculturaloutput.However,estimatingaggregateoutputwithfixed1799weights
overthreecenturiesintroducesaseriousindexnumberproblem,sincerelativeprices
changeovertimeand,consequently,thefixedlate-eighteenthcenturyweights
becomelessrepresentativeasonemovesawayfromthebenchmarkyear.
AsuperioralternativeisconstructingaDivisiaindexofagriculturaloutput.
Thus,wehavecomputedanindexofagriculturaloutputbyweightingyearlyvariations
ineachcrop’soutputbytheaverage,atadjacentyears,ofthesharesofeachcropin
agricultureoutputatcurrentpricesand,then,obtainingitsexponential.Thatis,
lnQt–lnQt-1=Σi[θQit(lnQit-lnQit-1)](2)
Wheresharevaluesarecomputedas:
θQit=½[θit+θit-1)](3)
Currentvalues,V,foreachcropiatyeartwereobtainedbyprojectingthe
valueofeachcropin1799,Vi1799,backwardswiththequantityindexbuiltonthebasis
oftithes,Q,andapriceindexexpressedinsilvergrams,P(expressedas1790/99=1)
and,then,byaddingthemupthetotalvalueofagriculturaloutput,Vj,wasderived.
19
Agriculturalhistorianscoincideinpointingtoadeclineinlivestockoutputsimultaneoustoarisein
cropsoutputoverthelate19thcentury.SeeGEHR(1978/79).
15
Vt=ΣVit=ΣVi1799*Qit*Pijt[4]
Later,theshareofeachcrop,Vit/Vt,wasobtained.
PricesusedforeachmaincropcomefromFelíu(1991),forCatalonia,andfrom
Hamilton(1934,1947,andHamilton’sunpublishedmanuscriptworkingsheetskindly
providedbyRobertAllen)forAndalusia,NewandOldCastile,andValencia,andhave
beenweightedbytheregionalsharesineachmaincrop’sproductioninordertoderive
pricesatnationallevel.Theshareofeachmajorcropinagricultureoutputatcurrent
pricesispresentedatdecadalaveragesinFigure2.Itcanbeobservedthatcerealand
animalproducearethemaincontributorstoagriculturaloutputandshowopposite
trends,withanimalproduceincreasingitsshareintheseventeenthcenturyand
cereals’sharedeclining,andrecoveryofcereals’shareattheexpenseofanimal
produce’sfrom1730onwards.
Asasensitivitytest,wealsocomputedagriculturaloutputassumingalower
shareforanimalproduceintotaloutput.Theshareadopted,19.8percent,
correspondstoagriculturalvalueaddedintheKingdomofCastileinthe1750s,and
derivesfromtheCadastreofEnsenada(Grupo’75,1977:177).20Wecanobservethat
byacceptingalowershareforanimalproducethelevelofagriculturaloutputisraised
upto1660,implyingaslightdecelerationovertime,butnosignificantalterationofits
longruntrend(Figure3andTable2).21
Agriculturaloutputandpopulation
Agriculturaloutputshowsmildlongrungrowthover1500-1800thatcanbe
dividedintodistinctivephases(Figure4).Thefirstonewasofsustainedexpansionthat
acceleratedsincethe1530sandpeakedintheearly1570s(Table2).Acontraction
occurredbetweenthe1570sandthe1610s,-moreintensivelyuntil1590-,followedby
threedecadesofstagnation.Steadylongrunexpansiontookplacefrommid
20
In1799,theshareofanimalproduceinagriculturaloutputforthekingdomofCastilewaspractically
identicaltothatforSpainasawhole.
21
Thealternativeestimatesofagriculturaloutput,obtainedwiththelowerboundshareforanimal
produce,arepresentedatdecadalintervalsinAppendixA,TableA-1.
16
seventeenthcentury,onlybrokenduringtheWarofSuccession(1701-1715),and
peakedinthe1750s,whenthehighestoutputlevelinfourcenturieswasachieved.
Then,afterintensecontractioninthe1760s,outputgrowthresumedbutsloweddown
untiltheendofthecentury.
Regionalvarianceresultingfromdifferencesinfactorendowments,trade
opportunities,andinstitutionalchangehasbeenconsideredtobefarfromnegligible
(AnesandGarcíaSanz,1982).Lackofcomprehensivedataprecludesabreakdownof
agriculturaloutputatregionallevel.Maincrops’evolutionmaycaptureregional
tendencies.Forexample,theevolutionofcerealoutputinfivemacro-regions(North,
interior,Mediterranean,Andalusia,andtheCanaries)canbeattempted(Figure5).22
However,Itisworthstressingthatdifferencesinregionalspecializationrendercereals
trendsunrepresentativeofthoseinaggregateagriculturaloutput.
Thesustainedexpansionto1570wasledbyAndalusia,andtheMediterranean
region(Valencia,inparticular)plusNewCastile(whosecontributionisconcealedby
oppositetrendsinotherregionsoftheInterior).Inthelongdeclineacrosstheboard
from1570tomid-seventeenthcentury,AndalusiaandtheMediterranean(particularly,
Catalonia)experiencedasharpercontractionduringitsearlyphase,1570-1590,while
theInterior(NewCastileand,especially,OldCastile),drovethefallinoutputbetween
1590and1620,andwas,again,theMediterranean(especiallyCatalonia)andNew
Castiletheregionswhichsufferedthedeepestcontractioninthefirsthalfofthe
seventeenthcentury,whiletheCanariesexpanded.Later,duringthesustained
expansionfromthemid-seventeenthcentury,onlybrokeninthe1710sand1760s,the
Mediterraneanregionplayedaleadingrole,beingtheonlyregionthatexhibited
stronggrowthinthesecondhalfoftheseventeenthcenturyandthefastestoneinthe
countrywidegrowthduringeighteenthcentury.
Thus,whileAndalusiaandNewCastile,alongwiththeMediterranean,drove
thesixteenthcenturyexpansion,themaindriverofcerealoutputgrowthsincethe
22
NorthincludesAsturias,Galicia,BasqueCountry,andNavarre;InteriorincorporatesExtremadura,
NewandOldCastile,andAragon;Mediterranean,inturn,Murcia,Valencia,Catalonia,andBalearic
Islands.Unfortunatelyincompletedatadoesnotallowustoprovideamoredetailedregional
breakdown.
17
mid-seventeenthcenturywastheMediterraneanregion.Itcan,thus,besuggested
that,totheextentcerealscapturelongruntrendsinaggregateagriculturaloutput,a
processofdivergenceemergesbetweentheinteriorandtheMediterraneanperiphery
sincethelateseventeenthcentury.
Howdoproductiontrendscomparetothoseofpopulation?Annualpopulation
seriesarelackingandallwehavearebenchmarkestimatesfromvecindarios
(neighbourhoods,literally,but,actually,populationsurveysfortaxationpurposes),up
to1700,andnationalcensusesinthelateeighteenthcentury(PérezMoreda,1988).As
analternative,historianshavereliedonbaptismrecordstodrawpopulationtrends
(Nadal,1988;Reher,personalcommunication;Llopis,2004).Thisprocedureimplies
strongassumptions:deathsrateskeptastablerelationshipwithbirthratesandnet
migrationflowswerenegligibleovertime.23Sincethesearehighlyunrealistic,wehave
builtacompromisepopulationfiguresbyreconcilingbenchmarkestimateswith
baptismdecadalseries.24Thus,theresultingestimatesrelaxtheastringent
assumptionsimplicitinsimplyusingbaptismseries,capturing,hence,migration(either
forcedorvoluntary)andvariationsintheratiobetweenbirthanddeathrates.
23
ThenumberofMoorishexpelledfromSpain(1609-1613)couldhavereachedupto300,000,
accordingtoDomínguezOrtizandVincent(1993),afigurealsoacceptedbyPérezMoreda(1988:380).
Asregardsvoluntarymigration,flowstoSpanishAmericahasbeenestimatedin250,000and100,000in
the16thand17thcenturies,respectively,andabout120,000over1700-1824(MartínezShaw,1994:
152,167).
24
ExceptinthepioneerworkbyNadal(1984),whoprovidedannualfigures,regionalandnational
baptismindicesarepresentedasdecadalaverages,sowehavebeenunabletoprovideannualestimates
ofagriculturaloutputperhead.
18
Inordertoderiveacompromiseestimateoftotalpopulation,wehave
projectedeachbenchmarkestimatewithdecadalbaptismseriesbackandforth.25
Sincetheprojectedbenchmarklevelwithbaptismindicesdoesnotmatchtheadjacent
benchmarkestimate,toobtainsingleestimatesavariable-weightedgeometricaverage
hasbeencomputedforeachpairofestimatesderivedusingadjacentbenchmarks,in
whichtheclosestbenchmarkseriesgetsalargerweight.Thus,
Nt=(Xt)(n-t)/n*(Yt)t/nfor0≤t≤T
(6)
BeingNtthenewpopulationdecadalestimates,XtandYt,thevalues
correspondingtotheprojectionofadjacentbenchmarkfigures,XandY(i.e.,1700
and1750)withbaptismdecadalindices,respectively;andnthenumberofyearsin
between0andT.
Theresultingcompromisepopulationdecadalestimates-thatshouldbe
consideredlargelyconjectural,especially,priorto1700-arepresentedinFigure6.
Overthethreecenturiesconsidered,populationgrewatanannualcompoundrateof
0.3percent.Inthesixteenthcenturyfastdemographicexpansiontookplace,ata
yearlyrateof0.5percentover1500-1590,acceleratingto0.9percentduringthe
1530-1570.Then,populationdeclineduntil1640(at-0.2percent)andremained
stagnantduringthecentraldecadesoftheseventeenthcentury.Thus,bythe1650s
thesizeofSpanishpopulationwasprobably10percentsmallerthaninthe1580s.
From1660onwards,butforareversalinthe1710sandoccasionalstagnationperiods,
populationexpandedatmoderatepaceuntil1800(atnearly0.4percentannually).
Trendsinagriculturaloutputperpersonandworker
Trendsinagriculturaloutputperpersoncan,now,bedrawn(Figure7).Longtermstabilityathighlevelofoutputperheadisthemainfeatureofafirstphasethat
25
For1610s-1790swehaveusedLlopisAgelánandSebastiánAmarilla(2007)baptismdecadalseries
andtheirpartialcoverageseriesuptothe1580s,completedwithReher’sownpartialestimatesfor
1520s-1580s(personalcommunication).Asforthepre-1520sdecades,wehadtorelyonlog-linear
interpolationofbenchmarkestimates.Benchmarkfiguresfor1420,1530,1591,1700,1750,1787,and
1797comefromNadal(1984),Carreras(2003),Bustelo(1972a,b),Nicolau(2005)andPérezMoreda
(1988,1999).
19
lastedto1570.Asharpdeclinetookplacebetweenthe1560sand1610s,withoutput
perpersonshrinkingto70percentofitsinitiallevel,whichintensifiedbetween1570
and1590(Table3).Asteadyexpansionatmoderatepacetookplacebetween1620
and1760,punctuatedbyoccasionalreversals(particularlyinthe1690s).Afteranother
severecontractioninthe1760s,growthresumeduntiltheendofthecenturyata
similarpace.Onthewhole,bytheendoftheeighteenthcentury,agriculturaloutput
perpersonwouldhaveshrunktothree-fourthsofitslevelatthebeginningofthe
sixteenthcentury.Twomainfeaturesoftheevolutionofagriculturaloutputperhead
canbehighlighted.Ontheonehand,thedramaticdeclinebetweenthelatesixteenth
andearlyseventeenthcenturyshiftedagriculturaloutputperpersontoalowerlevel
fromwhichitwouldnotrecoveruntilthenineteenthcentury.Ontheother,during
expansionperiods(1520s-1560s,1610s-1750s,and1760s-1790s)growthproceededat
asimilarpacebutalongsuccessivelylowerpathsasaresultofcontractionepisodes.
Howdothenewestimatescomparetothosederivedthroughthedemand
approach?Amajordifferencebetweenthetwosetsofestimatesisthatwhile,inthe
demandapproach,consumptionperheadisdirectlycomputed,inthecaseofthe
tithe-basedestimateoutputperheadresultsareverysensitivetothepopulation
estimatesused.26Tithe-basedanddemandapproachestimatesprovideroughlythe
sametrendsforagriculturaloutputperhead(Table3andFigure7).Theshiftfroma
hightoalowpathofoutputperheadisfoundinbothestimates,althoughamore
gradualandlongerdeclineisobservedinthedemandapproachestimatesthat
reachedatroughinthe1640sandexhibitedastrongerbutshorterliferecoverytothe
1720s.Furthermore,thedemandapproachestimatespointstoasustaineddecline
duringthesecondhalfoftheeighteenthcentury.
Afurtherandmorechallengingstepisestimatingoutputperworkerin
agriculture.Labourproductivitylevelsinearlymodernagricultureshouldbeideally
measuredintermsofoutputperdayorhourworkedaspeasantsoftenperformed
26
AshortcomingoftheestimatesforthecaseofSpainisnetimportsoffoodstuffswereassumedtobe
negligible,soconsumptionandoutputperheadwereconsideredequivalent(Álvarez-NogalandPrados
delaEscosura,2013).
20
otheroccupationsoutsideagricultureduringtheslacksessionandthenumberofdays
workedmayhavevariedovertime(Álvarez-NogalandPradosdelaEscosura,2013).
Unfortunately,asregardsthelabourinput,allthatcanbecrudelyestimatedsofaris
economicallyactivepopulationinagriculture(EAPAG),whichhasbeenobtainedin
threestages.Firstly,workingagepopulation(WAP)estimateswerederivedby
projectingtheshareofworkingagepopulationintotalpopulation(WAP/N)in1797
(0.578,accordingtoPérezMoreda,1982a)backwardsto1586onthebasisofsharesin
totalpopulationofthoseaged16-50forNewCastile(NC)(derivedfromReher,1991)
andassumingthatthelatesixteenthcenturyWAPsharewasacceptablefortheentire
century,and,then,multiplyingtheresultingWAP/Ntimestotalpopulation(N).
WAPt=(WAP/N)1797(WAPNC/NNC)Nt(7)
Later,theeconomicallyactivepopulation/workingagepopulationratio
(EAP/WAP)formalesin1797,estimatedat0.916byPérezMoreda(1982a),was
appliedtotheresultingworkingagepopulation(WAP)seriestoderivethe
economicallyactivepopulationfigures(EAP).27
EAPt=(EAP/WAP)1797WAPt(8)
Unfortunately,weonlyhavedataontheshareofagricultureinmaleEAP
(EAPAG/EAP)for1797(0.652)(PérezMoreda,1999).Thus,followingWrigley(1985)and
Allen(2000)wearbitrarilyassumedafixed80percentshareofEAPinagricultureas
thestartingpointin1500andinterpolatedlog-linearlythesharesbetween1500and
1797.28Then,toderiveEAPinagriculture(EAPAG)weappliedtheshareofagriculturein
totalEAPtototalEAPestimates.
27
Theavailableinformationoneconomicallyactivepopulationinthe1797censusrefersmostlyto
males(PérezMoreda,1982b).TheEAP/WAPshareformalesandfemaleswouldbelower.However,
sinceweareapplyingafixedratioovertime,thatof1797(expression8)andwe,then,constructan
indexofEAPinagriculture,theexaggerationinthe1797EAPleveldoesnothaveanyimpactonour
labourproductivityestimates.
28
TheshareofEAPinagricultureinregionsoftheKingdomofCastileissystematicallyhigherinthe
Godoycensuses(1797)thanintheCadastredeEnsenada(1752).Wehaveoptedfortheformerasit
21
EAPAGt=(EAPAG/EAP)tEAPt(9)
Theresultingestimatesarehighlyconjecturalasweassumefixed1797WAP/N
andEAP/WAPratiosandtheshareofagricultureinthelabourforceislog-linearly
interpolatedbut,nonetheless,theyprovideordersofmagnitude.However,themain
objectiondoesnotderivefromtheestimateofthenumberofthoseeconomically
activeinagriculturebutfromourinabilitytoestimatingtheamountofworkperEAP
(days,hours)overtimewhichresultsnoonlyfromtheseasonalityofagriculturebut
fromthepeasants’incentivestoallocatetheirefforttoagriculturalactivities(Simpson,
1992;Álvarez-NogalandPradosdelaEscosura,2013).
OutputperEAPevolvedlargelyinparallelwithoutputperhead,whichcouldbe
partlyduetothecrudeassumptionsinthecomputationofagriculturallabourforce
(Figure8andTable4).Nonetheless,itisworthhighlightingthatafterthecollapseover
1570-1620,whileoutputperheadrecoveredsincethe1620s,outputperEAPonly
starteditsrecoveryinthe1650sbutexperiencedamoreintensegrowththereafter,
especiallyinthesecondhalfoftheseventeenthcentury.
Asasensitivitytestweestimatedlabourproductivityafterre-computingEAPAG
bykeepingafixedshareofEAPinagriculture(0.66).Outputperworkerdoesnotalter
itstrendeventhoughitsuffersaslightdecelerationovertime(Table4//5).
HowdoestheexperienceofSpanishagriculturecomparetothoseofnorthwest
Europe?DotheLittleDivergencebetweentheNorthSeaandMediterraneanareasfind
anysupportinit?Acomparisonoflong-runtrendsinagriculturaloutputperworker
hasbeencarriedoutbetweenSpain(andtoenhancethecomparison,alsoItaly),on
theonehand,andBritainandHolland,ontheother.Estimatesofvalueaddedper
workerareexpressedinpoundssterlingof1910(adjustedfordifferencesin
purchasingpower)andderivefromO’BrienandPradosdelaEscosura(1992).Inthe
caseofSpain,thelevelfor1910hasbeenprojectedbackwardsto1850with
agriculturallabourproductivityestimates(PradosdelaEscosura,2003).Then,the
providesanupperboundforourestimatesandprovidesalowerboundforourlabourproductivity
estimates.
22
resultingestimatesaresplicedwiththepre-1800periodusingproductivityestimates
for1790s-1850s(obtainedwithoutputperheadfromthedemandapproachestimates
inÁlvarez-NogalandPradosdelaEscosura(2013),andourpopulationandEAP
figures).29LabourproductivityindicescomefromBroadberryetal.(2014:365)and
Feinstein(1972),forBritain,vanZandenandvanLeeuwen(2012)andSmitsetal.
(2000),forHolland,andMalanima(2011)andFedericoandMalanima(2004)forItaly.
Theresultsaremostrevealing.InSpainandItaly,initiallevelsofoutputper
workeraresignificantlyhigherthaninBritainandHolland,fallingduringthelate
sixteenthcenturyandstagnating(Italy)orslightlyrecovery(Spain)throughoutthe
seventeenthcentury(Table5).Meanwhile,outputperworkerexperienceda
remarkableimprovementinBritainand,especially,inHolland,asoutputincreasedand
theshareoflabourforceinagriculturedeclined,unliketheLatincountries’
experience.30However,by1700onlyHollandpresentedsignificantlyhigher
productivitylevels.Duringtheeighteenthcentury,inspiteoftherecoveryexperienced
inSpain(thatfellshort,though,ofthe1500slevels),theNorth-Seacountriesforged
ahead.Thus,theLittleDivergenceseemstohaveemergedafter1700.
Fromtheseoppositetrendsitcanbeconcludedthatagricultureplayeda
significantpartintheLittleDivergencebetweennorthwesternandsouthernEurope.
Furthermore,productivitytrajectoriesalsosuggeststhatareversaloffortunestook
placeastheleadingLatincountriesatthebeginningofthesixteenthcentury
exchangedpositionwiththeemergingcountriesfromtheNorthSeaovertheearly
modernera.
Explanatoryhypotheses
HistoriansofearlymodernSpainhavefavoureda-neo-Malthusian
interpretation.Demographicexpansioninthesixteenthandeighteenthcenturies
29
TheresultsmatchcloselydirectestimatesinPradosdelaEscosura,(1988:123).
30
Thus,forexample,whileinSpainagricultureemployedabouttwo-thirdsofthemalelabourforceby
thelateeighteenthcentury(PérezMoreda,1999:54),inBritainitrepresentedjustoverone-thirdin
1801,fromaninitialshareoftwo-thirdsin1522(Broadberryetal.,2014:362).
23
wouldhaveledtoextendingcultivationtomarginallandsand,intheabsenceof
capitalintensificationandtechnologicalchange,outputperworkerandperhectare
woulddecline.Conversely,demographicdeclineintheseventeenthcentury,by
reducingtheareaofcultivatedwouldhaveraisedoutputperhectareandperworker.
Theavailableevidencelendssupporttoadifferentview.EarlymodernSpain
appearsasaneconomyinwhichthefrontiercontinuedexpandingbeyondthelate
sixteenthcentury.Intheeighteenthcentury,forexample,agriculturesatisfiedthe
increasingdemandoffoodofagrowingpopulationattheextensivemargin,aslarge
areasofthecountrywereputintocultivation.Landownerswhocontrolledsubstantial
amountsoflandputthemintocultivationtakingadvantageoftheabundantlabour
force(Santiago-Caballero,2013).Theelasticsupplyoflandexplainshowevenduring
theeighteenthcentury,nearly2.5millionhectareswereputintocultivation(Llopis
Agelán,2002:128).Theexpansionofarablelandswasnotlimitedtotheregionsofthe
south,astheintroductionofmaizeinthenorthexpandedthefrontiertolandsthat
werepreviouslyunsuitableforthecultivationofothergrains(wheat,barley)buthad
rainfalllevelshighenoughastomakepossiblemaizecultivation.Themaizerevolution,
whichstartedinregionslikeAsturias,Galicia,andNavarresincemid-seventeenth
century,allowedproducerstoexpandcultivatedlandandincreasedsignificantlyfood
production(FloristanImizcoz,1985:DiazAlvarez,2005).31
Trendsofoutputperworkerandlabourforce,ratherthanmovinginopposite
directions,aspostulatedbytheneo-Malthusianmodel,evolvedalongside.Eveninthe
phaseofthefastexpansionofeconomicallyactivepopulation,1530-1570,agricultural
labourproductivityexhibitedapositivetrend(Figure8).Outputperworkerand
labourforcemovedalongsidebetween1590and1800,shrinkingbetween1590and
1650andexpandingthereafter,butforafewspecificconjuncturesinwhichthey
movedinoppositedirections(i.e.,1570s-80s,1760s).
Thus,anexplanatoryhypothesisthatcombinesinstitutionalandclimatic
dimensionscanbeproposedasanalternativetotheneo-Malthusianinterpretation.
31
EstimatesforNavarreindicatethat,insomeareas,theamountofarablelanddedicatedtothe
cultivationofgrainnearlytripledbetween1607andtheeighteenthcentury(MikelarenaPeña,1988).
24
Betweenthebeginningsofsixteenthcenturyand1570aneconomicexpansion
tookplacedrivenbyurbangrowthandinternationaltrade.WoolexportedtoNorthWesternEuropewas,asidesilver,themostimportantstaple.Thisexpansionincreased
thedemandforagriculturalgoods,someofthemofhigh-incomeelasticity(i.e.wine),
whichledtoariseintherelativepriceagriculturalgoodsandtoanexpansionofland
undertheplough.Theriseinrelativefoodstuffspricesgeneratedincentivestoexpand
productionovernewland,includingtheKing’sbaldíos(literally,wastelands,but
depictingnon-previouslycultivatedland),whichfrom1560wereonsale,especially,
surroundingsofmaincities(Madrid,Seville,Valladolid)wherethedemandforland
wasmoreintense(Vassberg,1975;Álvarez-Nogal,2001,2003).Duringthisperiodthe
labourforceinagricultureexpandedrapidly,whileagriculturaloutputperworker
increased.
After1570amorecomplexscenarioappeared.Asubstantialincreasein
militaryexpenditurewasrequiredasdifferentmilitaryconflictstookplaceinashort
timespan:theLowCountriesrebellionof1567andopenwarafter1573,theMoorish
uprisingintheAlpujarrasin1569,andtheLepantobattlein1571.Maintaxeswerenot
collecteddirectlybythekingbutthroughcitiesand,in1574,theking'sdemandto
increaseconsumptiontaxes(alcabalas)wasrejectedbytheCastiliancities.Thisledthe
kingtostoppaymentstotheGenoesebankersbetween1575and1577,adecision
thattrickleddown,drivinglocalbanksintobankruptcyandhavingdeleteriouseffects
onsmalltradersandmerchants.FiscalconflictbetweencitiesandtheKingledtothe
destructionoflocalmarketsfrom1570onwards(Álvarez-NogalandChamley,2014,
2015).MedinadelCampofairs,forexample,stoppedduringthreeyears(1575-1578)
andneverrecovered(EspejoandPaz1908).Eventually,citiesacceptedtodouble
alcabalas,openingthewaytosuccessivetaxincreasestobeleviedoncities(including
additionaltaxesonconsumptiongoods,wine,meat,oilandvinegar,thesocalled
millones)thatcontinuedtothe1660s.Meanwhile,Spain'swarsextendedtoEngland
andpeakedwiththeArmadaexpeditionin1588.Wardestroyedtradenetworksand
preventedwoolexportsthatneverrecoveredpre-1570levels(RuizMartín,1968:133134).Simultaneously,urbandeclineprecludedwoolbeingdivertedtothedomestic
industry.Monetaryalterations,especiallythedevaluationofvellón–acoppercurrency
25
thatupto1602includedalowerproportionofsilver(GarcíaGuerra,1999)-also
contributedtoimpedingmarketsrecovery(ÁlvarezNogal,2005).Asaresult,the
economyenteredintorecession.
Furthercollapseofurbanandexternaldemand,deepenedbydemographic
decline,wasfuelledbymonetaryinstabilityandmilitaryconflictinthecentraldecades
oftheseventeenthcentury(warwithFrance,1635-1659;andwithinIberia,withthe
Portuguese,1640-1668,andCatalan,1640-1652,rebellions).Duringthesedecadesit
wasdifficulttorecruitsoldiersinmanyCastiliancitiesandtowns,exhaustedby
previousdemandfortroops(CamareroPascual2015).Asaconsequence,normal
agriculturalactivitiesandcropsstymied,reducingincentivestocultivateandleadingto
alessintenseuseofland.
Climatechangealsocontributedtoexacerbatingthecontractioninagricultural
outputinlatesixteenthandearlyseventeenthcenturySpain.Climaticconditionshave
asignificantinfluenceonagrarianoutput,bothintermsofyieldsandtheamountof
landcultivated.Lowertemperaturesaffectthemetabolismsoftheplantsbyreducing
theabilitytoabsorbnutrientsandtotransportthemfromtheroottotherestofthe
organismlimitingtheirgrowth(Rosenzweig,1998:87).Intensiverainfallhasanegative
impactonagrarianproduction,notonlybydestroyingharveststhroughfloodsor
stormsbutalsobyreducingtheamountofnutrientsinthesoil.32
Cold(warm)periodsintheNorthernHemisphereareassociatedtowet(dry)
phasesinAndalusia.33Amajor-rainrelatedeventsindexwascomputed,inwhich
differentscenarioswerecontemplatedandvaluesassignedtoeachofthem:
hydrologicaldroughts(absenceofrain,dropsinriverlevels)(-2);meteorological
droughts(absenceofrain)(-1);strongrain(1);andrain-inducedflooding(2);andno
32
Forinstance,uptohalfofthefreenitrogenfixedinthesoilcanbewashedawayifwinterrainsare
heavy,reducingconsiderablytheamountoffertilisersavailableforthegrowthofthegrain(Allen,
2008:187).
33
IthasbeenshownthatphasesoftheNorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO)arestronglyandinversely
relatedtoseasonalrainfallinAndalusia(around37°N),withlowNAOindexlevelsassociatedtowet
periodsandhighNAOlevelstodryperiods(Rodrigoetal.1999,2001).
26
specialweatherconditions(0)(Rodrigoetal.,1999,2001).Onthebasisonmonthly
evidencefromhistoricalrecordsforalargenumberoflocalitiesinAndalusiaover
1500-2000seasonalaverages(winter,spring,summer,andautumn)werecomputed
andanannualindexofaverageseasonalrainfall(R)derived.Then,thevalueofrainfall
anomalies(Z)foryear(t)wascomputedwiththeseasonalrainfallindex(R),itsmean
value(x)anditsstandarddeviation(s)forthespecificperiodunderconsideration
(1500-1800,inourcase).
Zt=(Rt–x)/s(10)
Rodrigoetal.(2001)findtwomajorwetperiodsfromthelatesixteenthtomidseventeenthcenturyandfromthelateeighteenthtotheearlynineteenthcentury,
thatcorrespondstotheDaltonMinimum(aminimuminsolarirradiance)(Rodrigoet
al.,2012),withdryperiodsinthecentraldecadesofthesixteenthcenturyandthe
earlyeighteenthcentury.DuringtheMauderMinimum(1645-1715),aperiodof
minimumsunspots,dryandwetanomaliesalternates(Rodrigoetal.1999:1248).34
InFigure9yearlyanomalies,ordeviationsfromaveragerelativetothe
standarddeviation-obtainedwithexpression(10)-areprovidedforcerealoutputand
theindexofseasonalrainfall.Cerealproductionhasbeenpreferredtoaggregate
output,ascropsaremoresensitivetoclimatechangesthananimalproduce,another
majorcomponentofagriculturaloutput.Afirstglancesuggeststhatwetperiods
(positivevaluesintheindexofprecipitationanomalies)tendtocorrespondto
decliningoutputandareconcentratedbetweenthelatesixteenthandlate
seventeenthcenturies.35Thus,theperiods1590-1608and1618-29,inparticular,
concentratethemainprecipitationanomaliesthatmatchthestrongestnegative
fluctuationsinagriculturaloutput.TheMauderMinimum,withitsalternatewetand
dryperiods,alsoseemstoreflectonoutputvolatilityinthelateseventeenthandearly
34
TheseresultslargelymatchthoseobtainedfromrogationsinCataloniawhichsuggestsaweterafrom
1570totheearlyseventeenthcenturyanddryperiodsover1530-1550,1630-1640,andbetween1680
andtheearlyeighteenthcentury(Barriendos,1994).
35
ThisfindingseemstocontradictRodrigoetal.(2012:129)suggestionthatdroughtshaveamore
deleteriousimpactonoutput.
27
eighteenthcentury.Anotherclimaticshift,the‘MaldáAnomaly’,thatbroughtwithit
anincreaseinthenumberofsuccessiveclimaticdisasters(floods,droughts,andsea
storms),seemstocorrespondtomoreintenseoutputfluctuationsinthelate
eighteenthcentury(BarriendosandLlasat,2003).Onthewhole,aninverseassociation
betweenoutputandrainfallanomaliescanbepredicatedforearlymodernSpain,with
wetperiodsassociatedtonegativeoutputfluctuations.
ConcludingRemarks
Trendsinagriculturaloutputduringthreecenturieshavebeenestimatedon
thebasisofalargetithedatabase.Overthelongrun,agriculturaloutputperhead
evolvedinparallelwithpopulation,supportingtheviewofSpainasalandabundant
frontiereconomy.
Twodifferentpathsarefoundinagriculturalperformance.Ahighpathin
outputperheadupthelatesixteenthcenturywasbrokenbyaseverecontractionover
1570-1590,initiatingalowpaththatlastedto1800.Anaffluentagriculturewith
relativelyhighlevelsofoutputperheadandperworkerwas,thus,replacedbyanother
oneoflowlevelsthatpersistedtothenineteenthcentury.
Incomparativeperspective,startingfromhigherlevels,agriculturallabour
productivityinSpainremainedstagnantand,alongItaly’s,fellbehindBritainand
Holland’slevelswithasubstantialgapemergingovertheeighteenthcentury.Thus,in
areversaloffortune,SpanishagriculturecontributedtoEurope’sLittleDivergence.
Onthebasisofournewfindingssomeexplanatoryhypothesesoftheroleof
agricultureinSpain’sdeclinecanbeputforwardasanalternativetotheneoMalthusianinterpretation.Arelativelyaffluent,urbanizedsocietydeclinedasaresult
ofinstitutionalfactorsintensifiedbyclimateanomalies.Agriculturaldeclineappearsto
belargelytheresultofatax-induceddeepcontractioninurbanandinternational
demandattimeofwar.Thedestructionofafragileurbanandinternational
commercialnetworkreducedincentivestoproduceforthemarketandledtoaless
intensiveuseoflabourandland.
28
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37
Table1
MainComponentsofAgriculturalOutput,1500-1800:GrowthRates(%)
Cereals OliveOil
1500/9-1790/9
Livestock
0.26 0.04
0.04
0.27
0.37
1500/9-1560/9
1560/9-1640/9
1560/9-1610/9
1610/9-1640/9
1640/9-1750/9
1750/9-1790/9
0.37 -0.50
-0.66
-0.24
0.28
-0.02
0.47 -0.55
-0.85
-0.06
0.55
-0.83
1.19 -0.89
-0.93
-0.82
0.71
-0.02
0.30 0.10
-0.13
0.47
0.58
0.45
0.55
-0.18
-0.67
0.63
0.55
-0.09
1500/9-1520/9 1520/9-1560/9
1560/9-1580/9
1580/9-1610/9
1640/9-1690/9
1690/9-1750/9
1750/9-1760/9
1760/9-1790/9
-0.53 0.83
-0.70
-0.64
0.15
0.39
-1.63
0.52
-4.31 2.86
-2.77
0.43
0.22
0.83
0.43
-1.25
1.95 0.82
-0.58
-1.17
0.93
0.52
-0.87
0.26
-0.97 0.94
0.84
-0.78
0.24
0.87
-0.48
0.76
0.57
0.54
-1.08
-0.39
0.44
0.64
-0.76
0.13
Sources:AppendixA,TableA-1.Seetext.
Wine Legumes&Fruit
38
Table2
AgriculturalOutputGrowth,1500-1800:UpperandLowerBoundEstimates(%)
TotalOutput TotalOutput
1500/9-1790/9
(Upperbound)
(Lowerbound)
0.19
0.17
1500/9-1560/9
1560/9-1640/9
1560/9-1610/9
1610/9-1640/9
1640/9-1750/9
1750/9-1790/9
0.53 -0.36
-0.60
0.03
0.47
0.03
0.53
-0.41
-0.61
-0.07
0.43
0.05
1500/9-1520/9
1520/9-1560/9
1560/9-1580/9
1580/9-1610/9
1640/9-1690/9
1690/9-1750/9
1750/9-1760/9
1760/9-1790/9
-0.19 0.89
-0.83
-0.45
0.32
0.60
-0.92
0.34
-0.32
0.96
-0.80
-0.49
0.28
0.55
-0.93
0.38
Note:Theupperandlowerboundscorrespondtoanimalproducevalueaddedshares
of31and19.8%.
Sources:AppendixA,TableA-1.Seetext.
39
Table3
AgriculturalOutputperHeadGrowth,1500-1800(%)
1500/9-1790/9
1500/9-1560/9
Outputperhead
Outputperhead
(Tithesapproach)
(Demandapproach)
(Upperbound)
-0.09
-0.14
-0.01 -0.72
0.14
-0.25
-0.18
-0.30
-0.02
-0.27
-0.35 0.16
-1.32
-0.31
0.21
0.15
-0.55
0.21
-1.55
0.19
-0.17
-0.19
-0.20
-0.37
-0.51
0.37
0.73
-0.17
-0.88
-0.06
1560/9-1610/9
1610/9-1750/9
1750/9-1790/9
1500/9-1520/9
1520/9-1560/9
1560/9-1580/9
1580/9-1610/9
1610/9-1640/9
1640/9-1680/9
1680/9-1690/9
1690/9-1750/9
1750/9-1760/9
1760/9-1790/9
Sources:AppendixA,TableA-3.Seetext.
40
Table4
AgriculturalOutputperEconomicallyActivePopulationGrowth,1500-1800(%)
OutputperEAP OutputperEAP
1500/9-1790/9
1500/9-1560/9 1560/9-1610/9
1610/9-1750/9
1750/9-1790/9
1500/9-1520/9
1520/9-1560/9
1560/9-1580/9
1580/9-1610/9
1610/9-1640/9
1640/9-1680/9
1680/9-1690/9
1690/9-1750/9
1750/9-1760/9
1760/9-1790/9
(Simulation)*
-0.02
-0.09
0.06 -0.67
0.20
-0.11
-0.01
-0.75
0.13
-0.18
-0.28 0.23
-1.25
-0.29
0.04
0.41
-0.46
0.25
-1.39
0.32
-0.35
0.16
-1.32
-0.36
-0.03
0.34
-0.53
0.18
-1.47
0.25
Note:*Simulationassumingaconstantshare(0.66)oflabourforceinagriculture.
Sources:AppendixA,TableA-4.Seethetext.
41
Table5
ComparativeAgriculturalLabourProductivity
(1910£perworker,Britishrelativeprices)
1510/9
1580/9
1700/9
1750/9
1790/9
Spain
24.8
19.8
21.9
24.1
23.1
Italy
25.0 21.4
21.9 22.8
19.9 Holland
20.7 1510
1700 29.1 1807 34.7
1522
1700 1759
1801
Britain
17.9
22.6
31.6
37.5
Sources:Britain,Broadberryetal.(2014:365)andFeinstein(1972).Holland,vanZandenandvan
Leeuwen(2012)andvanZandenetal.(2000).Italy,Malanima(2011)andFedericoandMalanima
(2004).DataforHollandkindlyprovidedbytheauthors.Spain,Appendix,TableA.4),seetext.Levelsof
outputperworkerc.1910expressedinpurchasingpowerparity(PaaschePPPs),O’BrienandPradosde
laEscosura(1992)AppendixA,exceptforHolland,forwhichitwasusedthetradingexchangerate(ER)
intheabsenceofPPPexchange(PPP)ratebetweentheguilderandthesterling.Theunderlying
assumptionisthattwodevelopedandopeneconomiesinnorthwesternEuropesuchastheNetherlands
andBritainhadclosepricelevels(PL)(being,PL=PPP/ER).
42
Figure1.AgriculturalOutput:MainComponents,1500-1800(11-yearcentredmovingaverages)
(1790/99=100),expressedinlogs.Source:AppendixA,TableA-1andseethetext.
Figure2.AgriculturalOutputCompositionatcurrentprices,1500-1800%(decadalaverages).Source:
Seethetext.
43
Figure3.AgriculturalOutput(upperandlowerbound)1500-1800(1790/9=100),expressedinlogs.
Source:AppendixA,TableA-1andseethetext.
Figure4.AgriculturalOutput1500-1800(yearlyand11-yearcentredmovingaverages),(1790/9=100),
expressedinlogs.Source:seethetext.
44
Figure5.CerealsOutput:MainRegions,1500-1800(11-yearcentredmovingaverages)(1790/99=100),
expressedinlogs.Source:SeethetextandAppendixA,TableA-2.
Note:North:Asturias,Galicia,BasqueCountry,andNavarre;Interior:Extremadura,NewandOldCastile,
Aragon;Mediterranean:Murcia,Valencia,Catalonia,andBalearicIslands;Andalusia;Canaries.
Figure6.PopulationEstimates,1500-1800(decadalaverages)(million)
Sources:Baptisms,Llopis&Sebastián(2007),Llopis(2004),Reher(unpublished);Benchmarks,seetext.
Adjustedpopulation,AppendixA,TableA-3andseethetext.
45
Figure7.Agriculturaloutputperhead(TithesandDemandapproach),1500-1800(decadalaverages),
(1790/99=100),expressedinlogs.Sources:AppendixA,TableA-3andseethetext.
Figure8.AgriculturaloutputperEAPandeconomicallyactivepopulation,1500-1800(decadalaverages)
(1790/99=100),expressedinlogs.Sources:AppendixA,TableA-4andseethetext.
46
Figure9.CerealOutputAnomaliesandPrecipitationAnomalies1500-1800
Sources:Output,seethetext;Precipitationanomalies,Rodrigoetal.(1999).
47
AppendixA
TableA-1
AgriculturalOutputandMainCrops,1500-1800
(decadalaverages)(1790/99=100)
Cereals
1500/9
1510/9
1520/9
1530/9
1540/9
1550/9
1560/9
1570/9
1580/9
1590/9
1600/9
1610/9
1620/9
1630/9
1640/9
1650/9
1660/9
1670/9
1680/9
1690/9
1700/9
1710/9
1720/9
1730/9
1740/9
1750/9
1760/9
1770/9
1780/9
1790/9
OliveOil
Wine
Legumes&Fruit Livestock TotalOutput TotalOutput
(Upperbound)
(Lowerbound)
88.6
88.8
79.6
88.3
95.7
101.0
110.8
105.1
96.4
90.8
82.2
79.6
81.6
72.9
74.1
75.5
72.4
77.9
74.6
80.0
80.7
80.5
90.9
88.9
92.2
100.8
85.6
92.3
96.5
100.0
88.8
33.4
37.5
55.3
50.6
64.8
118.0
119.6
67.8
82.1
67.9
77.1
64.8
66.4
75.8
54.4
56.5
83.1
50.5
84.8
96.1
73.3
86.9
60.3
95.6
139.2
145.3
122.4
111.2
100.0
46.3
63.4
68.4
76.8
92.1
88.7
94.8
99.4
84.4
91.7
85.1
59.4
61.6
51.9
46.5
53.8
62.1
71.8
77.6
73.9
88.4
83.4
89.3
107.7
103.0
100.9
92.5
101.0
104.2
100.0
34.0
36.2
28.0
37.3
32.1
33.7
40.7
48.3
48.2
43.0
42.6
38.2
33.8
45.3
44.0
36.0
39.1
42.8
46.2
49.5
52.7
50.8
55.1
57.4
79.6
83.5
79.6
74.7
96.3
100.0
47.1
52.1
52.8
54.2
59.8
65.9
65.4
62.0
52.7
52.5
49.0
46.8
51.7
54.8
56.7
60.1
66.7
70.7
77.0
70.7
80.7
78.1
89.0
99.5
99.9
103.9
96.2
101.1
97.9
100.0
57.3
58.3
55.2
60.8
65.8
71.8
78.7
75.6
66.7
65.2
60.6
58.3
60.5
57.8
58.9
60.3
62.9
68.0
69.2
69.1
74.7
72.3
81.3
87.0
90.5
99.0
90.3
94.8
97.6
100.0
61.7
61.9
57.8
64.6
69.9
76.2
85.0
81.8
72.5
70.6
65.4
62.6
64.4
60.5
61.4
62.6
64.2
69.4
69.3
70.4
75.2
72.8
81.0
85.3
89.1
98.0
89.3
93.7
97.4
100.0
Sources:Seetext.
48
TableA-2
CerealOutput:MainRegions,1500-1800
(decadalaverages)(1790/99=100)
North
1500/9
1510/9
1520/9
1530/9
1540/9
1550/9
1560/9
1570/9
1580/9
1590/9
1600/9
1610/9
1620/9
1630/9
1640/9
1650/9
1660/9
1670/9
1680/9
1690/9
1700/9
1710/9
1720/9
1730/9
1740/9
1750/9
1760/9
1770/9
1780/9
1790/9
74.1
63.9
79.7
74.6
80.9
88.9
81.8
84.1
92.1
84.8
95.8
85.3
83.1
89.3
79.4
95.0
88.8
97.7
108.1
102.8
105.4
112.5
100.0
Interior Mediterranean
105.0
32.2
105.7
35.7
94.7
31.8
107.3
37.3
115.4
43.0
114.8
47.5
120.6
59.8
113.0
55.9
114.2
49.7
99.8
54.4
93.0
54.7
83.5
48.4
84.2
47.1
72.3
41.7
76.1
37.9
80.7
43.9
76.2
43.3
79.9
51.1
79.2
48.0
81.1
61.1
79.5
61.7
82.3
61.2
93.4
61.6
93.7
60.4
91.4
78.6
101.7
85.9
83.2
80.2
92.5
90.8
95.6
98.5
100.0
100.0
Andalusia
89.0
84.6
76.4
73.9
81.2
114.0
141.4
142.1
90.4
95.3
69.1
88.9
93.1
92.3
84.8
63.7
68.5
72.3
64.0
84.2
89.7
85.0
99.3
87.0
97.3
101.6
82.8
80.5
83.6
100.0
Canarias
66.1
69.6
68.6
81.9
84.5
76.0
104.4
103.0
108.0
113.2
114.9
96.5
121.1
127.8
106.4
107.8
100.2
109.7
100.0
Note:North:Asturias,Galicia,BasqueCountry,andNavarre;Interior:Extremadura,
NewandOldCastile,Aragon;Mediterranean:Murcia,Valencia,Catalonia,andBalearic
Islands;Andalusia;Canaries
Sources:Seetext.
49
TableA-3
AgriculturalOutputperHead,1500-1800
(decadalaverages)(1790/99=100)
1500/9
1510/9
1520/9
1530/9
1540/9
1550/9
1560/9
1570/9
1580/9
1590/9
1600/9
1610/9
1620/9
1630/9
1640/9
1650/9
1660/9
1670/9
1680/9
1690/9
1700/9
1710/9
1720/9
1730/9
1740/9
1750/9
1760/9
1770/9
1780/9
1790/9
Titheapproach Demandapproach
130.8
149.5
130.9
157.3
121.9
144.5
133.6
153.6
126.7
138.3
128.0
145.9
129.9
134.1
115.3
136.4
99.7
128.9
100.5
127.2
93.6
118.2
90.8
115.3
97.2
108.8
96.7
108.4
96.7
98.8
100.4
120.3
102.2
99.5
100.8
107.4
102.8
114.6
97.4
123.2
102.7
122.1
101.0
114.9
101.5
123.5
108.1
109.6
110.3
109.1
110.3
111.3
94.5
101.9
99.9
101.1
99.3
96.0
100.0
100.0
Population
43.8
44.5
45.3
45.5
51.9
56.1
60.6
65.5
66.9
64.9
64.8
64.2
62.3
59.8
60.9
60.0
61.6
67.5
67.3
71.0
72.8
71.6
80.1
80.5
82.0
89.7
95.5
94.9
98.3
100.0
Sources:Outputperheadderivedthroughtithes(upperbound),seetext;Outputper
headderivedthroughthedemandapproach,Álvarez-NogalandPradosdelaEscosura
(2013),OnlineAppendix;population,seethetext.
50
TableA-4
AgriculturalOutputperEconomicallyActivePopulation,1500-1800
(decadalaverages)(1790/99=100)
OutputperEAP
106.6
107.4
100.7
111.3
106.2
108.1
110.5
98.8
86.0
88.1
83.5
78.8
81.8
80.6
79.8
84.2
90.1
91.1
94.0
89.8
94.9
92.3
93.0
101.8
103.3
104.3
90.8
96.6
97.5
100.0
130.8
130.9
121.9
133.7
126.7
128.0
129.9
115.3
99.7
101.4
95.4
89.5
92.2
90.2
88.7
93.0
98.7
99.1
101.6
96.4
101.2
97.7
97.8
106.2
107.0
107.3
92.7
97.9
98.2
100.0
1500/9
1510/9
1520/9
1530/9
1540/9
1550/9
1560/9
1570/9
1580/9
1590/9
1600/9
1610/9
1620/9
1630/9
1640/9
1650/9
1660/9
1670/9
1680/9
1690/9
1700/9
1710/9
1720/9
1730/9
1740/9
1750/9
1760/9
1770/9
1780/9
1790/9
Sources:Seetext.
OutputperEAP
Simulation
(EAPAG/EAP:0.66)
51
AppendixC.Sourcesandprocedures
KINGDOM(Years)
MAINREGION(Years)
SubRegion(Years)
Source
Years
Location
CEREALS
1610-1800
LatorreCiria(2007)
1466-1800
Vidal(1978)
1508-1601
1602-1658
DantíIRiu(1987)
DantíIRiu(1987)
Serra(1988)
SerraiPuig(1978)
BadosaiColl(1978)
Fradera(1978)
1658-1729
1730-1756
1756-1800
1501-1565
1566-1700
KINGDOMOFARAGON(1466-1800)
ARAGON(1610-1800)
BALEARICISLANDS(1466-1800)
CATALONIA(1508-1800)
Palaudaries
PalaudariesandSentmena
Sentmenat
Sans-Mataró
Mataró
VALENCIA(1501-1800)
Casey(1979)
Casey(1979)
ArditLucas(1987)
PalopRamos(1982)
ArditLucas(1987)
PalopRamos(1982)
1701-1800
1569-1634
BelascoainCemborain(2011)
NAVARRE(1569-1634)
1408-1503
1469-1503
1515-1579
LaderoQuesada(1979)
LaderoQuesada(1979)
Ponsot(1986)36
1580-1605
Ponsot(1986)
KINGDOMOFCASTILE(1408-1800)
ANDALUSIA(1402-1800)
Seville(1408-1800)
ArchbishopricofSeville
Seville,Carmona,JerezandNiebla
Albaida
AlcaladelRio,CazalladelaSierra,Coria,MarchenaandMairenadel
Alcor,losMolares,laCampana,Moron,Osunaand
Utrera
Albaida,AlcaladelRio,CazalladelaSierra,Coria,Marchena,Mairena
delAlcor,LosMolares,LaCampana,Moron,Osuna,Utrera,Seville
andCarmona
WeusedseriesforCadizandHuelvafromLaderoQuesada(1979)thatoverlapwiththeSevilleseriestosplicing
thepre-1503andpost-1515series.
36
52
1606-1800
Ponsot(1986)
Montemayor
Cadiz(1493-1800)
Ponsot(1986
Conil,Jerez,Chiclana,Vejer,MedinaSidoniaandTrebujena
Huelva(1451-1800)
GonzálezGomez(1980)
Trigueros
Ponsot(1986)
Niebla,Aljaraque,Almonte,Hinojosos,Moguer,Aracenaandla
Palma
Ponsot(1986)
Niebla,Aljaraque,Almonte,Hinojosos
Cordoba(1580-1800)
Ponsot(1986)
Baena,Bujalance,Cabra,CastroyEspejo,Espiel,FernanNuñez,
Montoro,PalmadelRio,Posadas,laRambla,SantaellaandCordoba
Granada(1690-1800)
GarzonPareja(1974,1982)
Malaga(1555-1800)
BenitezSanchez-Blanco(1982)
Cartama,Borge,Setenil,Antequera,MarbellaandCasares.
EXTREMADURA(1500-1788)
PereiraIglesias(1990)37
Caceres
LlopisAgelán(1979)
CortijodeSanIsidro
LlopisAgelán(1979)
CasadeMadrigalejo,CasadelaBurquilla,CasadelaVega,andCasa
delRincon
LlopisAgelán(1979)
CasadelaVegaandCasadelRincon
RodriguezCanchoetal.(2004)
Plasencia
RodriguezCanchoetal.(2004)
Plasencia
CANARYISLANDS(1613-1800)
MaciasHernandez(1984)
Arucas,Teror,Telde,Matanza,Realejos,Icod,Arico,Tirajana,and
Fuerteventura
MURCIA(1580-1800)
Lemeunier(1982)
NEWCASTILE(1463-1800)
López-SalazarPerezandMartín
AlcaladeHenares,Alcaraz,AlcoleadeTorote,Brihuega,Buitrago,
Galán(1981)
Calatrava,Canales,Escalona,Guadalajara,LaGuardia,Hita,Illescas,
Madrid,Montalban,Ocaña,Rodillas,SantaOlallayMaqueda,
Talamanca,TalaveradelaReina,LaPuebladeAlcocer,Zoritadelos
Canes,andAlmoguera
Santiago-Caballero(2014)
Guadalajara
OLDCASTILE(1402-1800)
Burgos(1402-1800)
CasadoAlonso(1991)
HernándezGarcíaandPérez
38
Romero(2008) LaRioja(1550-1800)
IbañezRodriguezandAlonso
Castrobiejo(1996)
Santander(1607-1800)
LanzaGarcía(1991)
Rozas,Piasca,SanMamesdeMeruelo,Abionzo,andGajano
1493-1800
1451-1490
1490-1605
1606-1800
1580-1800
1690-1800
1555-1800
1500-1599
1739-1744
1745-1781
1782-1788
1744-1764
1797-1800
1613-1800
1580-1800
1463-1699
1700-1800
1402-1520
1590-1800
1550-1800
1607-1800
37
38
Tithespaidincashthatweredeflated.
Tithespaidincashthatweredeflated.
53
Leon(1569-1800)
SebastianAmarilla(1992)
MonasteryofSandoval
PalenciaandValladolid(1550-1800)
GarcíaandPérezRomero(2008)39 Segovia(1550-1800)
GarcíaandPérezRomero(2008)40 Soria(1550-1800)
GarcíaandPérezRomero(2008)41 Zamora(1523-1800)
ÁlvarezVázquez(1984)
BASQUEPROVINCES(1537-1800)
BilbaoBilbaoandFernandezde
Pinedo(1984)
GALICIA(1594-1800)
EriasRoel(1982)
1569-1800
1550-1800
1550-1800
1550-1800
1523-1800
1537-1800
1594-1800
WINE
1502-1600
LatorreCiria(1989)
1666-1712
1713-1725
1726-1781
SerraiPuig(1978)
VicedoiRius(1982)
VicedoiRius(1982)
BadosaiColl(1978)
Fradera(1978)
VicedoiRius(1982)
Fradera(1978)
1782-1800
KINGDOMOFARAGON(1502-1800)
ARAGON(1502-1600)
Liesa,Floren,andHuesca
CATALONIA(1666-1800)
Martorelles
Lleida
Lleida
Gracia-SantGeivasi
Mataró
Lleida
Mataró
1569-1625
BelascoainCemborain(2011).
NAVARRE(1569-1625)
1490-1601
Ponsot(1986)
1602-1641
1642-1678
Ponsot(1986)
Ponsot(1986)
1679-1800
Ponsot(1986)
KINGDOMOFCASTILE(1490-1800)
ANDALUSIA(1490-1800)
Seville(1490-1800)42
Albaida,AlcaladelRio,CazalladelaSierra,Coria,ElCopero,Lebrija,
Marchena,MairenadelAlcor,Moron,andUtrera
Montemayor
AlcaladelRio,CazalladelaSierra,Lebrija,Marchena,Montemayor,
andOsuna
AlcaladelRio,CazalladelaSierra,Lebrija,Marchena,andOsuna
Cadiz(1494-1800)43
Decadalestimates.
Decadalestimates.
41
Decadalestimates.
39
40
42
SerieswereincashandweredeflatedusingthepricesinPonsot(1986).
54
1494-1800
Ponsot(1986)
1579-1641
1642-1800
Ponsot(1986)
Ponsot(1986)
1580-1800
Ponsot(1986)
1550-1800
IbañezRodriguezandAlonso
Castrobiejo(1996)
JerezandChiclana
Huelva(1579-1800)44
LaPalma
LaPalmaandAlmonte
Cordoba(1580-1800)45
Baena,Cabra,CastroyEspejo,Espiel,Montoro,Posadas,andLa
Rambla
OLDCASTILE(1550-1800)
Burgos(1550-1800)
Santander(1624-1800)
LanzaGarcía(1991)
Piasca,SantiagodeHeras,ValledeRuesga,Gajano,andRubayo
Segovia(1610-1800)
GarcíaSanz(1977)
BASQUEPROVINCES(1537-1800)
Bilbao&FernandezdePinedo
(1984)
1624-1800
1610-1800
1537-1800
OLIVEOIL
1750-1800
DaviuyPons(1978)
1750-1800
DaviuyPons(1978)
1716-1751
1752-1769
SerraiPuig(1978)
SerraiPuig(1978)
BadosaiColl(1978)
KINGDOMOFARAGON(1570-1800)
ARAGON(1750-1800)
Majorca
BALEARICISLANDS(1750-1800)
Majorca
CATALONIA(1716-1769)
SantaCreudUlorda
SantaCreudUlorda
Gracia-SantGervasi
1428-1510
1494-1560
GonzálezArce(2015)46
Ponsot(1986)
1561-1567
1568-1598
Ponsot(1986)
Ponsot(1986)
KINGDOMOFCASTILE(1428-1800)
ANDALUSIA(1428-1800)
Seville(1428-1800)
AljarafeShire
Albaida,AlcaladeGuadaira,SantaMariadeCarmona,Cazalladela
Sierra,ElCoronil,Lebrija,Marchena,MairenadelAlcor,Moron,
Osuna,andUtrera
SantaMariadeCarmonaandElCoronil
Albaida,AlcaladeGuadaira,SantaMariadeCarmona,Cazalladela
Sierra,ElCoronil,Lebrija,Marchena,MairenadelAlcor,Moron,
Osuna,andUtrera
43
SerieswereobtainedbydeflatingtithesincashpaidwithpricesinPonsot(1986).
SerieswereobtainedbydeflatingtithesincashpaidwithpricesinPonsot(1986).
45
SerieswereobtainedbydeflatingtithesincashpaidwithpricesinPonsot(1986).
46
Combinebothtithesinquantityandvalue.Forthoseyearsforwhichweonlyhadvalues,wedeflatedthemwith
theaveragepriceofoliveoilbetween1478and1490,assuggestedbytheauthor.Wecarriedoutarobustness
checkusingthoseyearswhenwehadbothquantityandvalue.Theresultsindicatethattheuseoftheaverage
pricefortheperiod1478-1490isavalidwayofestimatingthequantityproducedfromthevaluetaxed.
44
55
1599-1641
1642-1769
1770-1800
Ponsot(1986)
Ponsot(1986)
Ponsot(1986)
1494-1608
1609-1641
1642-1800
Ponsot(1986)
Ponsot(1986)
Ponsot(1986)
1581-1800
Ponsot(1986)
1697-1788
LlopisAgelan(1979)
SantaMariadeCarmona,andElCoronil
SantaMariadeCarmona,Marchena,andOsuna
CazalladelaSierra,Lebrija,Marchena,andOsuna
Huelva(1494-1800)47
Moguer,Aracenaand,laPalma
Hinojosos
MoguerandlaPalma
Cordoba(1581-1800)48
Baena,Bulajance,Cabra,CastroyEspejo,FernanNuñez,Montoro,
PalmadelRio,Posadas,LaRambla,andSantaella
EXTREMADURA(1697-1788)
CasadelRincon
VEGETABLESANDFRUITS
1649-1800
Vidal(1978)
1658-1670
1671-1715
1716-1729
SerraiPuig(1978)
SerraiPuig(1978)
SerraiPuig(1978)
BadosaiColl(1978)
BadosaiColl(1978)
BadosaiColl(1978)
1730-1760
KINGDOMOFARAGON(1649-1800)
BALEARICISLANDS(1649-1800)
Majorca
CATALONIA(1658-1800)
Martorelles
MartorellesandSentmenat
SentmenatandBadosa
Sants/I'Hospitalet
Sants/I'HospitaletandGracia-SantGeivasi
1761-1800
Valencia
(1499-1700)
1553-1700
Casey(1979)
(Fruits)
1499-1602
SalvadorEsteban(2004)
(Vegetables)
Sants/I'Hospitalet
LIVESTOCKPRODUCE
1610-1800
LatorreCiria(2007)
1501-1565
1566-1700
Casey(1979)
Casey(1979)
ArditLucas(1987)
ArditLucas(1987)
1701-1800
KINGDOMOFARAGON(1501-1800)
ARAGON(1610-1800)
VALENCIA(1501-1800)
47
48
TheseriesincashweredeflateddwithpricesinPonsot(1986).
SeriesincashdeflatedwithpricesinPonsot(1986).
56
KINGDOMOFCASTILE(1500-1800)
MURCIA(1591-1800)
PérezPicazoandLemeunier(1984) EXTREMADURA(1500-1800)
PereiraIglesias(1990)
LlopisAgelán(1979)
MonasteryofGuadalupe
MelónJiménez(1998)
OLDCASTILE(1610-1800)
Segovia(1610-1800)
GarciaSanz(1977)
Soria(1682-1800)
AndrésGallego(1973)
1591-1800
1500-1599
1692-1800
1610-1800
1682-1800
57