THE MID-VICTORIAN
ECONOMY:
MAKING, EARNING AND SPENDING
IN THE U. K. IN 1851
PROFESSOR MARK THOMAS
Friday, 13 May 2011
OR
THE GREAT EXHIBITION
OF 1851
by
Charles Feinstein and Mark Thomas
Friday, 13 May 2011
“Hence the extreme difficulty of forming any fair estimate of the real
value of many species of manufactures. It is always a difficult matter to
learn their gross value. That, however, is really but the smallest part of the
difficulty to be overcome. It is farther necessary, in order to specify the
nett addition made by any manufacture to the mass of valuable products,
to detach from it the value of the raw produce and of other manufactured
articles embodied in it. But in many, perhaps most, cases this would be all
but impossible; and nothing would be gained by laying before the reader
conjectural estimates that might be as often erroneous as the reverse, and
from which, consequently, he could derive no real instruction.”
J. R. McCulloch, A Statistical Account of the British Empire (1839), p. 733.
Friday, 13 May 2011
SIMPLIFIED SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX
Notes:
1. Government receipt from combined
capital account.
2. Institutions (i.e Government) receipts
from rest of world.
3. Gross capital formation.
4. Exports.
5. Savings by institutions.
6. Deficit in current account of balance
of payments.
7. Imports of competitive goods.
8. Imports of non-competitive goods.
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ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, UNITED KINGDOM, 1851
(£ MILLION)
A. Aggregate GNP
1. Present Estimate
2. Deane
(Econ. Hist. Rev.,1957)
640
Extrapolation of 1870 estimate
by Jefferys and Walters
3. J.R. Bellerby
(Econ. J., 1959)
4. Deane and Cole
(1962, pp. 166, 335)
5. Deane
(Review of Income and Wealth,
1968)
6. Feinstein
(1972)
*Deane (1968, p. 98) assuming that IRISH GNP per capital = 50% UK, produced an alterative estimate of £594m
Friday, 13 May 2011
591
613
Sum of incomes GB
523
Add Ireland*
66
589
Sum of expenditures
561
Sum of incomes
(extrapolated from 1856)
577
ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, UNITED KINGDOM, 1851
(£ MILLION)
B. Classification by factor incomes
i. Comparison with Deane and Cole (1962)
Deane and Cole
GB
UK*
Present Estimate
Wages and Salaries
247
279
299
Profits and rent
266
300
331
Income from abroad
10
10
10
GNP
523
589
640
* Assume factor incomes increased in same proportion as GDP
ii. Comparison with Feinstein (1972) extrapolated back to 1851
Feinstein (1972)
Friday, 13 May 2011
Original
1856
Revised
1856
Extrapolated
to 1851
Present
Estimate
Wages
290
318
243
238
Salaries
Farm Income
Profits
Rent
Income from
Abroad
GNP
46
42
185
94
15
672
46
42
206
94
15
721
41
31
163
89
10
577
61
36
207
89
10
640
ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, UNITED KINGDOM, 1851
(£ MILLION)
C. Classification by sector
Deane and Cole (1962)
GB
UK*
Present Estimate
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
107
138
121
Manufacturing, mining, building
180
195
203
Trade and Transport
98
106
147
Domestic Service
27
29
40
Other Services
59
64
93
Houses
43
47
26
Income from abroad
10
10
10
523
589
640
* Irish agriculture estimated at £31m., remaining £35m domestic income allocated pro rata
D. Classification by final expenditure
Deane (1968)
UK*
Present Estimate
Consumers’ expenditure
532
617
Public authorities’ current expenditure
45
37
Gross domestic fixed capital formation
33
45
Net foreign investment
9
0
619
698.7
58
59
561
640
GNP at market prices
Less Indirect taxes
GNP at factor cost
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INCOME FROM PROFITS, INTEREST, AND SELF-EMPLOYMENT
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INCOME FROM PROFITS, INTEREST, AND SELF-EMPLOYMENT, 1851 - 1924
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CAPITAL AND LABOUR PER UNIT OF GROSS OUTPUT
Capital and Labour per unit of Gross Output
6
1. Agriculture and forestry
2. Fishing
3. Grain milling
4. Bread and biscuits
5. Brewing and distilling
6. Sugar refining
7. Tobacco
8. Tallow, soap, and candles
9. Alkalis & other chemicals
10. Cotton and lace
11. Woollen and worsted
12. Linen, hemp, and jute
13. Silk
14. Leather and leather goods
15. Clothing
16. Iron and steel
17. Non-ferrous metals
18. Metalworking
36
5
29
30
Capital/gross output (£m)
4
19. Brick-making and cement
20. Glass
21. China and earthenware
22. Shipbuilding
23. Timber and woodworking
24. Paper and printing
25. Jewellery and other trades
26. Coal mining
27. Other mining & quarrying
28. Building and construction
29. Gas and water
30. Transport and storage
31. Distribution
32. Meat trades
33. Catering
34. Finance and commerce
35. Professional services
36. Other services
3
2
1
2
31
21
5
1
20
7
9
8
6
0
0
4
34 17
32
3
24
23
18
13
12
15
25
16
22
33
11
35
5
10
26
28
14 27
10
19
15
Labour/gross output ('000 per £m)
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20
25
30
CAPITAL AND LABOUR PER UNIT OF GROSS OUTPUT, MANUFACTURING
SECTORS
1.2
Capital and Labour per unit of gross output, manufacturing sectors
1
22
6
27
21
8
Capital/gross output (£m)
0.8
19
0.6
25
10
14
5
26
24
9
0.4
3. Grain milling
4. Bread and biscuits
5. Brewing and distilling
6. Sugar refining
7. Tobacco
8. Tallow, soap, and candles
9. Alkalis & other chemicals
10. Cotton and lace
11. Woollen and worsted
12. Linen, hemp, and jute
13. Silk
14. Leather and leather goods
15. Clothing
16. Iron and steel
17. Non-ferrous metals
18. Metalworking
19. Brick-making and cement
20. Glass
21. China and earthenware
22. Shipbuilding
23. Timber and woodworking
24. Paper and printing
25. Jewellery and other trades
26. Coal mining
27. Other mining & quarrying
28. Building and construction
13
15
28
23
17
11
16
20
12
0.2
4
18
7
29
0
0
5
10
15
Labour/gross output ('000 per £m)
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20
25
TYPOLOGY OF PRODUCTIVE SECTORS
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COMPARISON OF VALUE-ADDED WEIGHTS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
SERIES
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