State of Oklahoma
FY-2011 Revenue
Certification
March 31, 2010
Contents
• Economic Outlook
• FY-2010 Projection Changes
• FY-2011 Estimate Changes
• Budgetary Context
Forecast of United States Real GDP Growth
FY-2009
FY-2010
Source: Oklahoma State Econometric Model / Bureau of Economic Analysis Update 2/12/10
FY-2011
Comparison of United States vs. Oklahoma
Employment Growth
FY-2009
FY-2010
OK
U.S
Source: Oklahoma State Econometric Model / U.S. Growth Update: Bureau of Labor Statistics
FY-2011
OK
U.S
FY-2010 General Revenue Fund
Projection (December) vs.
Projection (February)
$ in millions
• FY-2010 December Projection
• FY-2010 February Projection
$4,415.0
$4,475.8
• $60.8 million or 1.4% above December
*For more detail, see Schedule 11, page 11.
Fiscal Year 2010 GR Projection (December) vs.
Fiscal Year 2010 GR Projection (February)
FY-2010
December
($M)
Gross Production – Gas
FY-2010
February
($M)
Difference Difference
($M)
(%)
$195.2
$273.5
$78.4
40.2%
87.7
113.8
26.1
29.8%
Individual Income Tax
1,652.6
1,647.2
(5.3)
(0.3%)
Corporate Income Tax
172.4
153.6
(18.9)
(10.9%)
Motor Vehicle Tax
124.9
142.2
17.3
13.9%
1,512.0
1,477.7
(34.3)
(2.3%)
$3,744.8
$3,808.0
$63.2
1.7%
670.2
667.8
(2.4)
(1.4%)
$4,415.0
$4,475.8
$60.8
1.4%
Gross Production – Oil
Sales Tax
Subtotal
Other
Total
*For more detail, see Schedule 11,page 11.
Fiscal Year 2010 GR Estimate (June) vs.
Fiscal Year 2010 GR Projection (February)
FY-2010
June
($M)
FY-2010
February
($M)
$427.5
$273.5
($153.9)
(36.0%)
0.0
113.8
113.8
0.0%
Individual Income Tax
2,044.1
1,647.2
(396.9)
(19.4%)
Corporate Income Tax
307.3
153.6
(153.7)
(50.0%)
Motor Vehicle Tax
141.4
142.2
0.8
0.6%
1,754.1
1,477.7
(276.4)
(15.8%)
$4,674.4
$3,808.0
($866.4)
(18.5%)
741.0
667.8
(73.2)
(9.9%)
$5,415.4
$4,475.8
($939.6)
(17.4%)
Gross Production – Gas
Gross Production – Oil
Sales Tax
Subtotal
Other
Total
*For more detail, see Schedule 10, page 10.
Difference Difference
($M)
(%)
FY-2011 GR Estimate (December) vs.
FY-2011 GR Estimate (February)
FY-2011
December
($M)
Gross Production – Gas
FY-2011
February
($M)
Difference Difference
($M)
(%)
$225.1
$320.1
$95.0
42.2%
71.0
114.0
43.0
60.6%
Individual Income Tax
1,661.4
1,663.5
2.1
0.1%
Corporate Income Tax
182.3
157.2
(25.1)
(13.7%)
Motor Vehicle Tax
108.5
128.9
20.4
18.8%
1,555.9
1,542.9
(13.0)
(0.8%)
$3,804.2
$3,926.6
$122.4
3.2%
644.4
653.4
9.0
1.4%
$4,448.6
$4,580.0
$131.4
3.0%
Gross Production – Oil
Sales Tax
Subtotal
Other
Total
*For more detail, see Schedule 12, page 12.
Contents
• Budgetary Context
Comparison of Authority 2010 Session (December)
vs. Proposed Authority 2010 Session
2010 Session 2010 Session
Authority
Authority
Dec. ($M)
Feb. ($M)
Certified
Difference
($M)
Difference
(%)
$4,306.9
$4,431.6
$124.7
2.9%
1017 Fund
547.3
541.6
(5.7)
(1.0%)
GP – Oil Education Funds
142.1
142.1
0.0
0.0%
Tobacco Fund
18.2
18.2
0.0
0.0%
Judicial Revolving Fund
38.0
38.0
0.0
0.0%
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0%
210.7
211.6
0.9
0.5%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
31.5
31.9
0.4
1.3%
$5,294.9
$5,415.2
$120.3
2.3%
Prior Certified
State Transportation Fund
Bond Funds
Cash
Total
*For more detail, see Appendix A-2, pages 16 & 17. Totals may differ, due to rounding.
Comparison of Actual Expenditures 2009
Session vs. Proposed Authority 2010 Session
2009 Session 2010 Session
Difference
Actual
Authority
($M)
($M)
($M)
Certified
Difference
(%)
$5,222.8
$4,431.6
($791.2)
(15.2%)
633.6
541.6
(92.0)
(14.5%)
GP – Oil Education Funds
99.6
142.1
42.5
42.7%
Tobacco Fund
24.2
18.2
(6.0)
(24.8%)
Judicial Revolving Fund
34.0
38.0
4.0
11.8%
0.1
0.2
0.1
100.0%
208.7
211.6
2.9
1.4%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
393.6
31.9
(361.7)
(91.9%)
$6,616.6
$5,415.2
($1,201.4)
(18.2%)
1017 Fund
Prior Certified
Transportation Fund
Bond Fund
Cash
Total
*For more detail, see Appendix A-1, pages 14 & 15. Totals may differ, due to rounding.
*FY-2011 data reflects February projections only.
• NCSL REPORTS SHOW THAT STATES CLOSED
BUDGET GAPS IN EXCESS OF $145 BILLION IN
ORIGINAL FY-2010 BUDGETS ONLY FOR A NEW
ROUND OF SHORTFALLS TO OPEN TOTALING
$28.2 BILLION
41 states reported new mid-year shortfalls in addition to
gaps originally closed by FY-2010 enacted budgets.
14
states reported additional mid-year cuts of 7% or
greater.
Sources: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; Article “Recession Continues
to Batter State Budgets: State Responses Could Slow Recovery”, February
25, 2010 and the National Conference of State Legislatures
GAP
REPORTED
($)
% OF
BUDGET
CUTS
ENACTED OR
PROPOSED
ARIZONA
$1.9 Billion
19.7%
7.5% + Targeted
ARKANSAS
$162 Million
3.6%
2.2%
COLORADO
$601 Million
8.0%
Targeted
KANSAS
$459 Million
7.5%
3.3% + Targeted
MISSOURI
$690 Million
7.7%
2.5% + Targeted
NEBRASKA
$155 Million
4.4%
2.5% + Targeted
NEW MEXICO
$650 Million
11.8%
10% + Targeted
TEXAS
$3.3 Billion
7.6%
Not Reporting
STATE
BUDGET AGREEMENT
FY-2011 Compared to FY-2010
If Budgeted at FY-2010 Levels
(In Billions)