Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index
April 18, 2008
The Office of Consumer Research
at Middle Tennessee State University
Director -- Timothy R. Graeff, Ph.D.
"Consumers are Losing Confidence in the
Economy”
Confidence among Middle Tennessee consumers is at an all time low. All three
components of the overall consumer confidence index declined from February. The
current poll of 452 randomly selected adult residents of Davidson, Rutherford and
Williamson counties was conducted the evenings of Monday, April 14 and Thursday,
April 17.
The overall consumer confidence index took a precipitous fall to 44 from 158 in
February. Just last November the Middle Tennessee consumer confidence index stood at
225. Rising gasoline prices, news of layoffs, concerns about the future of the job market,
concerns about further negative effects of the credit crunch and decreases in the stock
market have all contributed to the overall gloomy outlook regarding the American
economy.
Consumers have increasingly negative views of the current state of the economy. In
fact, the current situation index is now negative, falling to -15 from 49 in February. This
is the first time a Middle Tennessee consumer confidence index has been negative since
the inception of the poll in 2000. A negative index score does not mean that all
consumers hold negative views of the economy. Rather, it means that the number of
consumers who hold negative views of the economy outnumber those who hold positive
views of the economy.
As uncertainty about the overall American economy lingers, consumers are also
becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future of the American economy. The future
expectations index fell to 24 from 53 in February. Only 22 percent of local consumers
believe that the American economy will improve in the next six months.
Consumers are also becoming increasing pessimistic toward the local Middle
Tennessee economy. The percent who feel that business conditions in Middle Tennessee
are “good,” dropped sharply to 33 from 48. Further, the percent of consumers who
expect the local economy to improve in the next six months declined to 25 from 28.
Consumers are also beginning to fear the potential negative effects of a slow economy
on the job market. Only 14 percent said that jobs in Middle Tennessee are “easy to find,”
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Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
down from 21 percent in February. And the percent who expect more job openings in the
next six months also fell to 20 from 24.
One bit of good news from the current poll is that the percent of consumers who
expect their personal financial situation to improve in the next year actually rose to 43
from 39. Further, only 10 percent of consumers expect their personal financial situation
to become worse in the next year.
Taken together, these results indicate eroding confidence among consumers regarding
the overall economy. When consumers begin to feel uncomfortable about their
employment situation and the outlook for the job market, and they are forced to tighten
their budgets in response to increased gasoline prices, they become less willing to make
large purchases. Recent declines in the stock market have also left consumers feeling
less wealthy. If consumers indeed cut back on spending, this could further hasten an
economic slowdown and lead to even further decreases in consumer confidence.
The psychology of consumers can have dramatic effects on the future of the economy.
Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the American economy. Decreases in
consumer confidence that translate into reduced purchasing patterns can have significant
negative effects on the economy. Conversely, increases in consumer confidence that
translate into accelerated consumer spending can have significant positive effects on the
economy.
The Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index and Components
Overall Cons. Conf. Index
Current Situation Index
Future Expectations Index
Purchasing Situation Index
Apr May Sept Dec
‘06 ‘06 ‘06 ‘06
260 283 335 242
118 115 146 102
68 110 105 58
74
58
84
82
Feb
‘07
319
132
89
98
1
Apr May Sept Nov
‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07
278 206 242 225
120 94 105 88
83
55
79
75
75
57
58
62
Feb
‘08
158
49
53
56
Apr
‘08
441
-15
24
35
The score is computed by adding the percentage of favorable responses to each question and subtracting
the percentage of negative responses to each question.
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Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
Comparison To The Nation:
Compared to consumers across the country as a whole, local consumers have a
slightly less favorable perception of the overall American economy and the current job
market. However, local consumers are more optimistic about the future. Most
noticeably, local consumers are more optimistic about the future of the overall American
economy, are more optimistic about the future of the job market, and are more optimistic
about their personal financial situation in the next year. The table below illustrates some
of these differences in consumers’ responses to selected survey questions.
Business conditions in the U.S. are good.
Six months from now, business conditions in the U.S. will be better.
Jobs are easy to find (plentiful).
Six months from now, there will be more job openings.
In 12 months my personal financial situation (income) will be better.
Nation
(%)
MT
(%)
152
8
19
8
15
11
22
14
20
43
Source: March, 25, 2008 Consumer Confidence Report – The Conference Board (www.conferenceboard.com). The next release from the Conference Board is scheduled for April 29, 2008.
2
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Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
Tax Rebates and Consumer Spending
Consumers were also asked about the potential effects that the recently approved tax
rebates might have on the economy. There were very few changes in consumers’
responses to this question compared to when it was asked in February prior to the
stimulus package being approved. Most consumers feel that the tax rebates will have a
positive effect, albeit short term, on the economy. Very few expect the tax rebates to
have a negative effect on the economy. However, 31 percent of consumers expect the tax
rebates to have no effect on the overall economy.
Consumers were also asked what they would most likely do with their tax rebate
money, if they were to receive any. Again, there were very few changes in consumers’
responses to this question compared to when it was asked prior to the plan being
approved. Unfortunately for retailers, only 17 percent of consumers say that they will
spend most of the money. Saving the money was the most often cited use for the tax
rebates. Twenty three percent of consumers plan to use most of the money to help pay
4
Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
off debt, whereas 27 percent of consumers plan to use the money for a combination of
spending, saving, and paying off debt.
5
Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
Changes in Consumers’ Perceptions of the Economy
The table below shows how consumers’ responses to selected survey questions have
changed from February 2008.
April
2008
Change from
February 2008
Business conditions in the U.S. are Good.
11
7%
Six months from now, business conditions in the
U.S. will be Better.
22
1%
Business conditions in Middle Tennessee are
Good.
33
15%
Six months from now, business conditions in
Middle Tennessee will be Better.
25
3%
Jobs in Middle Tennessee are Easy To Find.
14
Six months from now there will be More Job
Openings in Middle Tennessee
20
I am Better Off Financially than I was one year
ago.
26
12 months from now I will be Better Off
Financially than I am today.
43
Now is a Good Time To Make Large Purchases.
24
Now is a Good Time To Buy A Home.
60
Now is a Good Time To Buy A Car.
36
7%
4%
3%
4%
4%
4%
2%
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Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
About the Survey:
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with 452 randomly
selected adult residents, 18 years and older, from Davidson, Rutherford, and Williamson
counties. Phone interviews were conducted between 4:30 pm and 8:30 pm on Monday,
April 14 and Thursday, April 17. With a sample of 452 people, we can say with 95%
confidence that the amount of survey error due to taking a random sample instead of
surveying all members of the population is ± 4.6%. Other factors such as problems with
question wording and question interpretation can also introduce additional bias or error
into the results. Results from the Middle Tennessee consumer confidence surveys can be
compared to national consumer confidence surveys published monthly by the Conference
Board (www.conference-board.org). This report is also available on the Office of
Consumer Research web page (www.mtsu.edu/~consumer).
The Consumer Confidence Index is based on all 11-survey questions outlined below.
The score is computed by adding the percentage of positive responses to each question,
and subtracting the percentage of negative responses. The Present Situation Index is
based on questions 1, 3, 5, and 7 (see the following tables of results). The Future
Expectations Index is based on questions 2, 4, 6, and 8. The Purchasing Index is based
on questions 9, 10, and 11.
About the Office of Consumer Research at MTSU:
In 2000, the Management and Marketing Department at Middle Tennessee State
University received funding from an MTSU Technology Access Fee grant to create a
telephone survey research lab and the Office of Consumer Research to be housed in the
department. The Office of Consumer Research uses the telephone survey lab to conduct
surveys of consumer confidence in Middle Tennessee. The surveys measure consumers’
perceptions of economic conditions in the country as a whole as well as in Middle
Tennessee. Similar consumer confidence surveys conducted by the Conference Board
and the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan have been shown to be
very predictive of key economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates and consumer
spending.
Students in Professor Timothy R. Graeff’s marketing research courses conduct the
telephone surveys. For further information contact Timothy R. Graeff, Professor of
Marketing and Director, Office of Consumer Research (898-5124; tgraeff@mtsu.edu).
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Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
Consumer
Confidence
Recent Results:
Are business conditions
Good
in the U.S.
In Between
Bad
Six months from now,
Better
will business conditions
About same
in the U.S. be:
Worse
Are business conditions
Good
in Middle TN:
In Between
Bad
Six months from now,
Better
will business conditions
About same
in Middle TN be:
Worse
Are jobs in Middle TN:
Easy to find
Found
w/effort
Hard to find
Apr
06
(%)
34
51
12
May
06
(%)
39
50
11
Sep
06
(%)
42
50
7
Dec
'06
(%)
39
53
8
Feb
07
(%)
42
48
9
Apr
07
(%)
36
54
9
May
07
(%)
33
54
10
Sept
07
(%)
32
57
10
Nov
07
(%)
25
60
13
Feb
08
(%)
18
62
19
Apr
08
(%)
11
55
33
20
50
27
21
61
15
21
62
12
20
57
21
20
60
16
20
57
21
17
56
23
18
62
19
24
51
22
23
52
20
22
47
29
63
30
6
67
26
6
71
26
2
56
36
7
63
31
4
57
37
5
58
36
3
63
30
5
55
38
6
48
45
7
33
52
14
34
52
12
37
58
4
30
63
5
26
62
11
32
56
9
35
57
7
27
60
9
33
56
9
33
52
13
28
59
12
25
53
20
29
19
28
22
28
28
21
23
26
21
14
48
14
62
15
54
11
51
20
53
11
53
13
55
17
55
17
55
15
52
18
56
24
40
50
8
34
53
8
25
53
19
36
47
12
33
53
10
26
57
11
28
56
12
30
54
14
24
52
18
20
49
27
In Middle TN six months
More
from now there will be
About same
(# of job):
Fewer
35
45
11
Better
39
36
37
35
35
39
32
34
32
29
26
About same
45
15
50
14
50
12
49
15
52
12
48
13
47
20
50
15
51
16
47
23
45
28
39
48
10
45
49
6
49
46
4
44
47
6
46
45
8
41
49
8
39
46
11
46
47
6
45
44
8
39
47
11
43
44
10
32
45
15
34
48
11
33
44
13
38
42
15
41
44
9
39
45
10
28
49
16
28
49
15
37
40
20
28
44
23
24
38
35
49
28
18
43
35
19
46
30
19
48
29
19
52
25
18
52
25
18
50
29
18
50
18
30
53
16
29
64
11
22
60
16
22
44
33
18
30
46
19
49
32
12
46
33
16
46
35
14
34
40
22
34
40
21
40
41
15
40
37
19
34
37
25
36
34
28
Compared to a year
ago,
is your personal
financial
situation:
Worse
In 12 months will your
Better
personal financial
About same
situation be:
Worse
Is now a good time to
Good time
buy large items for
In between
the home?
Bad time
Is now a good time to
Good time
buy a house?
In between
Bad time
Is now a good time to
Good time
buy a car?
In between
Bad time
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Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Index – April 2008
The Middle Tennessee Consumer Confidence Survey:
1. Turning first to business conditions in the country as a whole, would you say that
business conditions in the country as a whole are good, bad, or somewhere in
between?
2. And how about 6 months from now, do you expect that in the country as a whole
business conditions will be better than they are today, worse than they are today,
or just about the same?
3. Now turning to business conditions in Middle Tennessee, would you say that
business conditions in Middle Tennessee are good, bad, or somewhere in
between?
4. And how about 6 months from now, do you expect that in Middle Tennessee
business conditions will be better than they are today, worse than they are today,
or just about the same?
5. Now turning to the availability of jobs in Middle Tennessee, would you say that
jobs are easy to find, can be found with effort, or hard to find?
6. How about in the next 6 months, do you expect that in Middle Tennessee there
will be more job openings than there are now, fewer job openings than there are
now, or about the same number of job openings?
7. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would
you say that you, and any family members living with you, are better off
financially than you were a year ago, worse off financially than you were a year
ago, or about the same?
8. Now looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now you, and any family
members living with you, will be better off financially, worse off financially, or
about the same?
9. About the big things people buy for their homes -- such as furniture, a
refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that, generally speaking, do you
think now is a good time for people to buy major household items, a bad time, or
somewhere in between?
10. How about buying a house? Is now a good time to buy a house, a bad time to buy
a house, or somewhere in between?
11. How about buying a car? Is now a good time to buy a car, a bad time to buy a
car, or somewhere in between?
9