THE PACIFIC CLIMATE IMPACTS
CONSORTIUM - HYDROLOGIC
MODELLING PROJECT
Recent accomplishments, challenges, and future
directions
Katrina E. Bennett
Markus Schnorbus
Daniel Caya
David R. Rodenhuis
IP3-WC2N, Lake Louise
18 October, 2009
WHAT IS PCIC?
  Vision:
to stimulate collaboration among
government, academe and industry to reduce
vulnerability to extreme weather events,
climate variability and the threat of global
change. The consortium for climate impacts will
bridge the gap between climate research
and climate applications and will make
practical information available to
government, industry, and the public.
  Mission: to quantify the impacts of climate
change and variability on the physical
environment in Pacific North America.
PCIC HYDROLOGY THEME
  BC
Hydro driven
  Four projects




Climate Overview
Hydrologic Modelling
Regional Climate
Modelling
Synthesis
  Study
of three major
watersheds in
British Columbia
using the VIC
hydrologic model
  2007 - 2010
Winter Precipitation
Winter Mean Temperature
CLIMATE OVERVIEW
1900-2007
1951-2007
1971-2007
HYDROLOGIC MODELLING - RECENT PROGRESS
  Peace

River Basin
Model calibration and validation
Sensitivity analysis
  Uncertainty analysis

  Campbell
River Basin – calibrated/validated
  BC Hydro’s Technical advisory committee for the
project
  Columbia River Basin – working on next
Initial Calibration
Updated Calibration
MODEL VALIDATION
  Inputs


Forcings
Downscaling approach
  Output





Runoff
Snowpack
Evapo-transpiration?
Soil moisture?
Glaciers?
Tmax 4A09P ï Pulpit Lake
Prec 4A09P ï Pulpit Lake
2
40
VIC Elev 1595.9 ï Stn Elev 1310
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Avg VIC 4 Avg OBS 4
1
log10 of mm/day
0
ï1
ï2
ï40
ï20
0
20
Tmax
( ToC )
VIC
OBS
Precip
VIC
OBS
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
From 1950 To 2006
Month
Month
Tmin 4A09P ï Pulpit Lake
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SWE
ï10
ï20
ï30
ï40
( ToC )
0
Tmin
10
20
VIC
OBS
Tmax 4A27P ï Kwadacha River
Prec 4A27P ï Kwadacha River
2
40
VIC Elev 1512.2 ï Stn Elev 1620
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Avg VIC 3 Avg OBS 3
1
0
ï1
log10 of mm/day
ï2
ï40
ï20
0
20
Tmax
( ToC )
VIC
OBS
Precip
VIC
OBS
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
From 1950 To 2006
Month
Month
4A27P ï Kwadacha River
VIC Elev 1512.2 ï Stn Elev 1620
500
1000
Avg VIC 42 Avg OBS 168
1500
VIC
OBS
0
swe (mm)
0
ï10
ï20
ï30
ï40
SWE
10
20
VIC
OBS
Tmin
( ToC )
2000
Tmin 4A27P ï Kwadacha River
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
From 1983 To 2006
Month
Month
UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
DJF
cgA1B cgA2
cgB1 ecA1B gfA2 haA1B
Winter (DJF)
Scenario
Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology (mpi_echam5)
A1B, A2
Hadley / United Kingdom
Meteorological Office
(ukmo_hadcm3)
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (gfdl_cm20)
Community Climate System
Model
(ccsm3_20c)
Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research
Organization (csiro_3_5_20c)
B1, A1B,
A2
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
A1B, A2
0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Precipitation (%)
Summer (JJA)
3.5
A2, B1
A2, B1
B1
3
Temperature Change (deg C)
Canadian Centre for Climate
Modelling and Analysis
(cccma_cgcm3)
4
Temperature (deg C)
Modeling Laboratory
(GCM name-version)
4.5
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Precipitation (%)
15
20
25
11
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING
  Dynamical
downscaling
  Running RCM at 15 km
  Zhang (PCIC) + Caya
Music, Braun (Ouranos)
DIRECTIONS FOR PCIC
  Hydrologic
impacts of
changing glacier
mass balance
  Improved validation
of snow process
modelling at regional
scales
  Challenges of
downscaling to high
elevation, poorly
monitored
watersheds in BC
  April workshop
ADDITIONAL MATERIALS
VARIABLE INFILTRATION CAPACITY
HYDROLOGIC MODEL
Macro-scale
hydrologic model
  Model runs for 1
grid cell, calculates
fluxes
  No horizontal
transfer of flow
  Model resolves
fluxes at a daily or
sub-daily time step

Peace RB (at Taylor)
! EVAP
!
PRECIP.
!
RUNOFF
!
SWE
Columbia RB
! EVAP
!
PRECIP.
!
RUNOFF
!
PRECIP.
!
SWE