Project REsource
EUROPE and the
RAND DRUG POLICY RESEARCH CENTER
Better understanding efforts to reduce the supply of
illicit drugs
RAND EUROPE Research areas
Crime & Justice
Defence & Security
Education, Arts & Culture
Evaluation & Audit
Health & Healthcare
Innovation & Technology
Policy
Modelling
Population & Migration
W
hile member states (MSs) in the European Union (EU) have made considerable strides in collecting useful information about the demand for illegal drugs
at the international, national, and subnational
levels in Europe, developing indicators that allow
for rigorous policy analyses of supply-reduction
efforts (e.g., seizures, trafficking arrests) has been
considerably slower.
To advance these efforts, the European
Commission (EC) commissioned RAND Europe
to recommend indicators for improving the
understanding of illicit drug markets, supplyreduction efforts, and drug-related crime in the
EU. Insights and recommendations were based
on data analysis, international meetings with
scientific and policy experts, key informant interviews, detailed case studies, results from a survey
of forensic labs, literature reviews, and RAND’s
previous work on drug markets and drug-related
crime.
RAND Europe
Westbrook Centre
Milton Road
Cambridge CB4 1YG
United Kingdom
Tel +44.1223.353.329
Fax +44.1223.358.845
37, Square de Meeus
B-1000 Brussels
Belgium
Tel +32.2.791.7500
Fax +32.2.791.7900
Stijn Hoorens
hoorens@rand.org
Analysis to better understand illegal drug
markets and supply-reduction efforts in the
European Union identified three key insights:
it is critical to collect data on purity-adjusted
prices; there are multiple options for collecting
this information; and member states can learn
more about supply reduction by changing how
they report seizure data. To help prioritise the
limited resources, short-, near-, and long-term
recommendations were offered.
1. Collecting information about purity-adjusted
prices is critical to understand the efficacy of supplyreduction strategies. To truly understand what is
being traded and to appropriately monitor and
analyse illegal drug markets, one must know not
just the amount of a drug traded and the amount
paid but also the purity of the drug that was
traded. If law enforcement agencies successfully
reduce supply in a region, drug dealers could
respond by raising their prices to account for
supply shortages, or they could maintain their
current price and dilute the product they sell. If
drug dealers do the latter and law enforcement
agencies simply examine the raw price per gram,
it will look like law enforcement interventions to
reduce supply had no effect.
obtain transaction-level information from law
enforcement agencies, either during an undercover drug operation or when undercover law
enforcement officials are sent to several different places to see how much of a drug they can
purchase for a fixed price, with no intention of
making an arrest. In both cases, the price paid
and total amount purchased are recorded, and
the seized drug is sent to a lab for purity testing.
While this approach can yield important
information, it may not be feasible for some MSs
to collect this information, especially in the short
run, because of economic barriers, legal barriers,
or both. Another approach is to merge available
high-frequency purity information from seized
drugs examined in labs with low-frequency (e.g.,
annual or quarterly) street-level price information to construct purity-adjusted prices. Most
MSs collect some information about the unadjusted retail price paid for illicit substances and
report this information to the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction
(EMCDDA). Since many EU countries submit
seized drugs to labs for purity testing, acquiring
these data would not require a tremendous outlay
of resources.
2. MSs have multiple options for collecting purityadjusted price information. When it comes to
collecting such information, one approach is to
3. MSs can learn more about supply reduction
by changing how they report seizure data. Law
enforcement seizures can serve a number of goals,
Key insights
This product is part of the
RAND Europe research
brief series. RAND research
briefs present policy-oriented
summaries of an individual
peer-reviewed document or
a body of published work;
current or completed work;
and innovative research
methodologies.
Abstract
Three key insights emerged from the analysis.
© RAND 2010
www.rand.org/
randeurope
but, for policy purposes, how useful the information is
depends on how much information is collected about each
seizure and how this information is maintained in databases. Most countries report information about the total
number of seizures and the total weight to international
organisations. However, this information is of limited value
for understanding changes in drug markets and supply-side
interventions because it is not clear whether changes in
seizures over time reflect strategic responses by drug traffickers, changes in law enforcement effort, or both.
At a minimum, it would be useful to also report information about the median weight seized. That way, it will
be possible to determine whether a few large seizures are
having a large effect on the statistics. It would be preferable
if information about the total number, total weight, median
weight, and purity were reported for transactions at different levels of the market. The “weight bins” (e.g., seizures
less than or equal to 1 gram, between 1 and 10 grams,
between 10 and 200 grams, more than 200 grams) that
generally capture the retail, mid-level retail, and wholesale
transactions will likely differ by country and substance. But
reporting information for specific weight bins will allow law
enforcement officials to learn more about whether certain
activities are influencing the distribution in typical trades
made in the market.
Recommendations
In light of these insights and to help prioritise the limited
resources available for developing indicators, the study offers
12 recommendations to the EU, MSs, and other European
institutions for three general time horizons from the EC’s
perspective (see table).
Recommendations for the immediate short term can be
implemented almost immediately and do not require large
expenditures. Longer-term ones will likely require more
coordination and expenditure. ■
Recommendations
Immediate short-term
• Obtain and analyse existing forensic purity information for illicit substances at national and subnational levels
• Commission EMCDDA to streamline data reporting requirements for MSs
• Create formal network of researchers, law enforcement officials, forensic scientists, and policymakers to
regularly discuss advances and challenges in evaluating supply-side enforcement strategies and creating a
pan-European database with detailed information about drug seizures
• Recommend to each MS that it decide whether it wants to measure drug-related crime in that country, and if
so, which crimes
Near-term
• Combine forensic lab and police case information to allow for operational analysis (by police) and strategic
analysis (by police and policy analysts)
• Record and analyse information about undercover drug purchases in countries where this occurs
• Request MSs to report information about seizures to the EMCDDA by weight bins
• Collect systematic data about what happens after someone is arrested for a drug offence or commits a drug
violation while on probation
Long-term
• Regularly collect information about drug prices and other topics from heavy drug users
• Collect information about typical quantity consumed by type of drug user
• At the EU level, standardise definitions of drug-trafficking offences, then involve MSs in tracking these offences
for specific drugs
• Create a pan-European database with detailed information about specific seizures in Europe
Further reading:
Beau Kilmer and Stijn Hoorens, Understanding illicit drug markets, supply-reduction efforts, and drug-related crime in the European Union, Cambridge,
UK: RAND Europe, TR-755-EC, 2010.
Jonathan Cave, Priscillia Hunt, Sharif Ismail, Ruth Levitt, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Lila Rabinovich, Jennifer Rubin, Kristin Weed, and Beau Kilmer, Tackling
problem drug use, Cambridge, UK: RAND Europe, TR-795-NAO, 2009.
Peter H. Reuter, Franz Trautmann, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Beau Kilmer, Andre Gageldonk, and Daan van der Gouwe, Assessing changes in global
drug problems, 1998–2007: Main report, Cambridge, UK: RAND Europe, TR-704-EC, 2009.
This research brief describes work done for RAND Europe and the RAND Drug Policy Research Center documented in Understanding illicit drug markets,
supply-reduction efforts, and drug-related crime in the European Union, by Beau Kilmer and Stijn Hoorens, eds., TR-755-EC (available at http://www.rand.org/
pubs/technical_reports/TR755/), 2010, 221 pp. The other contributing authors were Jonathan Caulkins, Emma Disley, Priscillia Hunt, Susan Kirk, Rosalie
Liccardo Pacula, Lila Rabinovich, Sudha Rajderkar, Jennifer Rubin, and Shruti Vasudev. This research brief was written by Paul Steinberg.
RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private
sectors around the world. RAND Europe’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark.
RAND Offices
Santa Monica, CA • Washington, DC • Pittsburgh, PA • New Orleans, LA/Jackson, MS • Boston, MA • Doha, QA • Cambridge, UK • Brussels, BE
RB-9521-EC (2010)
EUROPE an d t h e
RAND DRU G P O L I C Y R E S E A R C H C E N T E R
THE ARTS
CHILD POLICY
CIVIL JUSTICE
This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public
service of the RAND Corporation.
EDUCATION
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
NATIONAL SECURITY
POPULATION AND AGING
This product is part of the RAND Corporation
research brief series. RAND research briefs present
policy-oriented summaries of individual published, peerreviewed documents or of a body of published work.
PUBLIC SAFETY
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
SUBSTANCE ABUSE
TERRORISM AND
HOMELAND SECURITY
TRANSPORTATION AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research
organization providing objective analysis and effective
solutions that address the challenges facing the public
and private sectors around the world.
WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE
Support RAND
Browse Books & Publications
Make a charitable contribution
For More Information
Visit RAND at www.rand.org
Explore RAND Europe
RAND Drug Policy Research
View document details
Limited Electronic Distribution Rights
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing
later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited.
RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or
reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint
and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions.