What Innovations for
Food and Nutrition Security
in a Bioeconomy Age?
Joachim von Braun
Center for Development Research (ZEF)
University of Bonn
A Jülich Lecture, June 28th, 2013
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
The Roots of Innovation
1. Scarcity of factors (factor prices, e.g. land)
2. Creativity and experimenting (incl. of farmers)
3. (Science) Education and other public policy for
science
Institutional Innovation & Technological Innovation
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Overview
1. Toward “green economy“ with “bioeconomy“
2. The problems in the “World Food and
Nutrition Equation“
3. Technical and institutional innovations for
ending hunger and undernutrition
4. Policy actions and redesign for international
science policy
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Zero Carbon Emissions
CO2
Green
Economy
Bioeconomy
Landwirtschaft
Sustainable
Production
Residues
Biomass
Products
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Ecological Footprints
Zero Waste
Bioeconomy (biobasierte Wirtschaft) is…
…the knowledge-based production and
utilization of biological resources for
products, production processes, and
services in the economic system.
It‘s raw materials stem from biomass
and bio-chemical processes
5
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Bioeconomy: Products and Science Domains
Nahrungsmittelsicherheit
© Eugen Lehle
© Antje Schröter / PIXELIO
Rest-/Abfallstoffe
© Rosel Eckstein / PIXELIO
Rest-/Abfallstoffe
© Jens Bredehorn / PIXELIO
Gesundheit
Ernährungssicherung
© Marco Barnebeck / PIXELIO
Energieversorgung
Biodiversität
Rohstoffversorgung
Source: adapted from EU Commission (2006)
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
The four drivers of the Bioeconomy
1.
2.
3.
4.
Increased prices of resources
Climate change and energy policy
Innovation opportunities
Changed preferences of people
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Overview
1. Toward “green economy“ with “bioeconomy“
2. The problems in the “World Food and
Nutrition Equation“
3. Technical and institutional innovations for
ending hunger and undernutrition
4. Policy actions and redesign for international
science policy
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
The Equation of World Food and Agriculture
in the Bioeconomy Age
Supply
=
Land
Water
Inputs & Transport costs
Workforce
Climate change
Farm size structure
Technology
Demand
Income growth
Poverty and inequality
Consumer behavior
Bioenergy
Biomass (CO2)
Prices, Markets & Trade
Prices and speculation
International trade
Supermarkets
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Multiple World Food and Nutrition Problems
Problems
Numbers of
people
Consequences
Hunger (Under-Nutrition,
calories)
ca. 0,9 Mrd.
acute deficiency,
political conflicts
Hidden Hunger (deficiencies of
Micro-Nutrients, vitamines,
iron etc.)
ca. 2 Mrd.
diseases, reduced
productivity
Children‘s under-nutrition
(the first 1000 days)
Obesity and resulting chronic
diseases
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
ca. 165 Mio.
ca. 1 Mrd.
stunting, reduced
physical, kognitiv
development.
3,1 Mio. death p.a.
high costs of public
health
Quellen: The Lancet 6/2013, FAO 2013
Different time subscripts „t“ are relevant
for different nutrition problems
• Long-term (decade/year):
 nutritional status (stunting);
water-, land-use; climate, technology; polit. change; investments
• Medium-term (months):
 nutrient deficiencies (Cal., micro-nutrients, weight loss);
weather, grain stocks
• Short-term (weeks, days):
 nutrition shocks in early childhood;
Infections, trade shocks, shocks in financial markets
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Progress in reduction of hunger and
child under nutrition
Hunger world wide:
1990/92: 1000 Millions (19% of world population)
2010/12: 868 Millions (13% of world population)
Children in Developing countries
1990: 40% -- 2011: 26%
Ending hunger 2030
should be a goal
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
:
Land, Soils, and Water
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Total arable land is limited
• Climate change, urbanization and degradation affect
arable land
• Protection of forests imposes further environmental
limits
Global Arable Land (Mio ha)
1420
1400
1380
1360
1340
1320
1300
1280
1260
1240
1220
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Source: FAOSTAT
Land shortage and land degradation
constrain production
42% of the poor live in degraded areas
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Source: Bai et al., 2008.
Investment in land
(sales and long term lease)
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Source: Land Matrix Homepage (accessed May 6, 2012)
Data: Land Matrix Project, April 2012
Prices
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
$/ metric ton
Structural and Climate Change Impacts
on Prices 2050
450
2000
400
2050 No climate change
2050 NCAR No CF
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Rice
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Wheat
Maize
Soybeans
Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.
Food price crises 2008 and 2011:
New price levels, volatility, extreme spikes
1000
Reispreis $/t
Weizenpreis $/t
Globaler Getreidepreisindex
900
800
700
250,0
200,0
600
500
150,0
400
Index
Preis in $ pro Tonne
300,0
100,0
300
200
50,0
100
0
1/2000
8/2000
3/2001
10/2001
5/2002
12/2002
7/2003
2/2004
9/2004
4/2005
11/2005
6/2006
1/2007
8/2007
3/2008
10/2008
5/2009
12/2009
7/2010
2/2011
9/2011
4/2012
0,0
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Quelle: FAO, FAO Giews.
1900 – 2008: since 1990s new Financialisation of
Agricultural Commodity Markets
Wheat price and Financial Krises
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Sources: J. von Braun, 2012, Data: BCDI index Reinhart und Rogoff (2009), Wheat price
BLS 2008, Godo 2001, NBER 2008, OECD 2005, U.S. Census Bureau 2008, und United
Nations 1999
Which prices drive food prices
(and vice versa)?
•
•
•
•
•
•
input prices
land price
labor wages
water price (costs)
energy price
financial asset (commodities)
Food prices
All these prices are more interlinked
And volatility is a disincentive for investment
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Overview
1. Toward “green economy“ with “bioeconomy“
2. The problems in the “World Food and
Nutrition Equation“
3. Technical and institutional innovations for
ending hunger and undernutrition
4. Policy actions and redesign for international
science policy
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
The What and How of Innovations for
Food and Nutrition Security
What:
• Producing more and better with less: sustainable
intensification
• Efficiency along all value chains / the value web
• Nutrition and health systems effeciveness
How:
• Innovation systems strengthening
• Incentives for results and finance
• Science land scape build-up
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Expected Global Agric. Production Growth
2.1% 2003-12 auf 1,5% 2013-22
%
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Quelle: OECD – FAO Agriculture Outlook 2013
Innovation feeds the world
Sources of productivity growth in world agriculture
Beitrag von
TFP
Inputintensivierung
Bewässerung
Anbauflächenerweiterung
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Source: IFPRI, 2012 Global Policy Report, 2013.
Examples of technology innovations
• Plant breeding for micro-nutrient quality (Biofortifikation)
Biomass quantity
Climate-smart (drought and temperature-resistance)
Disease resistance
Nutrient efficent crops
Livestock production innovations (feeding, breeding,
etc.)
• Mechanisation for precision
•
•
•
•
•
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Examples of institutional innovations
• Frame work conditions for innovation (IPprotection, access to genetic resources accross
borders)
• Innovative incentive systems (combining
enhanced funding of basic research with results
oriented awards and innovation prizes)
• Venture Capital (for projects and start-ups)
• Public- private cooperations (platforms)
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Linkages between Technological and
Institutional Innovations
• Technological innovations address primarily
the availability of food and micronutrients
• Institutional innovations are necessary to
ensure the up-take of new technologies and to
address the issues of access, utilization and
stability in the FNS equation
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Producing more with less and
without adversely affecting the environment
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Overview
1. Toward “green economy“ with “bioeconomy“
2. The problems in the “World Food and
Nutrition Equation“
3. Technical and institutional innovations for
ending hunger and undernutrition
4. Policy actions and redesign for international
science policy
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Strategic food and nutrition security agenda
1.
Risk prevention: Promotion of agriculture productivity
across value chains to address risks on supply side.
2.
Risk management: Facilitation of reduced market
volatility and spikes with appropriate stocks, more trade
openness, appropriate regulation, and international
cooperation.
3.
Social protection: productive safety nets, cash transfers;
expanded action for nutrition security of children.
4.
Insurance systems: insurance of crops, peoples health
and disabilities, public insurance mechanisms for
catastrophic events (e.g. regional droughts)
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
New Science Policy
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Top 10 Countries‘ Public Agricultural R&D
Expenditures: not enough and not connected enough
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Quelle: Pardey, Beddow, The Chicago Council, 2013
Bioeconomy Age: new policy initiatives 2010-13
Australia
Bioenergy – Strategic Plan 2012–2015
Brasil
Biotechnology Development Policy (2007)
Danmark
Agreement on Green Growth (2009)
Germany
Nationale Forschungsstrategie BioÖkonomie 2030 (2010)
EU-Commission A Bioeconomy for Europe (2012)
Finnland
National Resource Strategy and Sust. Bio-Economy (2011)
Ireland
Delivering our Green Potential (2012)
Canada
Biorefining Conversions Network (2009)
Malaysia
Bioeconomy Initiative and National Biomass Strategy (2011)
Netherlands
Biobased Economy 2010–2015
Russia
Bioindustry and Bioresources – BioTech 2030 (2012)
Sweden
Research and Innovation Strategy for Bio-based Econ. (2011)
UK
UK Bioenergy Strategy (2011)
USA
National Bioeconomy Blueprint (2012)
34
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
Priorities of the Bioeconomy Council of
German Government 2013-15
1) R&D :
• Bioeconomic competitiveness
• Fostering technology and institutional innovations
• Natural resources production and protection strategies
• Consumer benefits and health
• Environment and Natur
2) Improving framework conditions, reduced innovation hurdles
3) Public Information and Dialogue
4) Inter-disciplinary science education and next generation
researchers
[see Eckpunktepapier 30.4.2013]
35
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013
A call for re-design of the international
Ag., Food and Nutrition Science System:
• The challenges of agricultural development and food and
nutrition security require a strong mechanism for science
and research based assessment as a permanent
institutional arrangement for the coming decades.
• A global body tasked with this could be mapped along the
lines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), but avoiding its pitfalls from the outset.
• An independent global research platform that facilitates
the peer reviewed assessments on agriculture, food and
nutrition is needed for delivering evidence based analyses
for action with foresight.
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, 2013