Meeting the challenges for
countrywide conservation
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Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho
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Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto
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UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE
MINAS GERAIS
Bonn, March 30rd 2016
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Global GH gases continue in full steam
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Window of opportunity is closing
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Friedlingstein et al. 2014
What to expect?
Global Temperature
+0.87o .
The five warmest years ever:
2010 2013
2014 2015
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2005
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My home
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climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
IPCC 2001
Paris 2015 agreement: Nationally Determined Contributions
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?
Lessons from Brazil
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Brazil is a leader in both achieving and committing to GHG
reductions
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17.2 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
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9.4 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
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2005
13.1 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
2015
2015
5.7 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
Brazil’s NDC
2030?
5.4 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
The fate of the Amazon under a BAU scenario
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SimAmazonia. “Landmark
presentation of scenarios
of development and
conservation policies”
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Davidson et al. 2012
Soares-Filho et al. 2006
What happened?
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From 2004 deforestation in the Amazon plummeted by 80%, more than 2 billion tons of CO2
reduced from the 1996-2005 baseline.
Nepstad et al. 2009
What caused this precipitous decline?
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35.7 Mha
30000
km2
25000
15000
10000
5000
0
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27772
s
25396
20000
18226
19014
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14196
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12911
7464
PA expansion (from 2002 to 2009, 70 Mha
were designated as new PAs)
6400
New paradigm in PA history (green barriers)
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≈50% of the remaining forest
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Effective in locally deterring deforestation without leakage
Soares-Filho et al. 2010
But what else? More command and control (IBAMA, Federal
policy, public prosecutors)
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PRODES
Near-real time
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Enforcement teams guided up by deforestation maps
Börner et al. 2014
Credit ban to municipalities in the black list
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Municipalities in the black list reduced
deforestation from 2008 to 2010 27%
more than others
30000
km2
25000
27772
15000
10000
5000
0
18226
19014
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14196
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25396
20000
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Black list
7464
6400
Arima et al. 2014
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Soy moratorium
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Gibbs et al. 2015
At the same time, Brazil has become the second
largest producer of agricultural commodities
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K ha
hectares
Milhares de
25,000
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24,000
23,000
22,000
21,000
20,000
19,000
18,000
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2005
2006
2007
Área plantada ( Ha)
Cropland (ha)
2008
2009
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
2011
Soy 2013/2014
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2010
Toneladas por Ha
Ton/ha
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Cropland x Yields
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87 M tons
What can we expect?
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Revisions to the
forest code
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Full reverse ?
Continued trend of increasing demand for agricultural products from Brazil.
Production needs to increase by 40% to raise world production by 20% (OCDE 2015)
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Conflicting interests
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Conservation
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Development
The forest code is the main conservation tool in Brazil
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Roughly 53% of Brazil’s native vegetation
occurs on private properties
Soares-Filho et al. 2014
Brazil’s new forest code
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Brazil’s controversial new
Forest Code grants amnesty
to illegal deforesters
Level of compliance
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Public lands
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Debt reduced by
58%, conservation
requirements
maintained, except
for hilltop
preservation areas
Soares-Filho et al. 2014
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Challenges for Brazil
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Brazil’s pledge
to reduce GHG (NDC) by 2030
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Brazil’s GHG emission profile
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Million CO2eq
3,000
2,500
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2,000
1,500
1,653
1,861
1,485
1,438 1,434
1,211
s
1,000
500
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1,998
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1,060
328
339
352
372
387
392
392
383
298
302
298
288
303
313
318
332
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Energy
Agriculture
Residues
1,134
647
592
562
462
538
486
406
413
418
396
418
423
389
350
337
368
382
418
452
479
Industrial processes
60% comes from the land-use sector
Land use change
Seeg.org.br
GHG in the agricultural sector
Vinasse
Rice
Fertilizers
ag. Residues
Manure on
soils, 8.56E+07
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Field
burning
of ag.
residues
Manure
management,
2.10E+07
Enteric
fermentation
in livestock,
2.65E+08
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≈ 88% from livestock
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Sources and sinks of GHG emissions in agriculture, forests,
and other land use systems (IPCC 2006)
Brazil’s NDC by 2030
1800
• Develop a low carbon
agriculture to
compensate ag.
expansion
• Although more efficient,
emissions will increase in
the energy sector due to
more consumption
1400
• Emissions from land use
change must reduce by ≈
70%
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1200
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135
778
1000
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1600
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800
479
600
400
423
475
2014
2030
200
0
Mudança
do uso do solo
Land use change
Energy
Energia
Agricultura
Agriculture
Processos
industriais
Industrial process
(Spencer & Pierfrederici, R. , 2015)
Large-scale measures relating to land use change
and forests
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1. Strengthen the Low Carbon Agriculture Program (ABC),
including restoration of an additional 15 million ha of degraded
pasturelands (totaling 30 Mha).
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2. Enforcing the implementation of the Forest Code, at federal,
state and municipal levels.
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3. Restoring and reforesting 12 million ha of forests by 2030.
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4. Zero illegal deforestation by 2030 and compensating for
greenhouse gas emissions from legal suppression of vegetation
by 2030.
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Solving Brazil’s territorial equation
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Cattle ranching in Brazil
150
15
USS$
Billion
Million
tons of beef
200
10
100
5
50
0
0
Brazil
million ha
Million
Heads
USA
Brazil
7
23
210
←PROTECTED AREAS
600
39
← NON DESIGNATED
281
← REMNANTS
ON PRIVATE LANDS
500
400
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300
200
222
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80%
60%
40%
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Brazil
USA
20%
0%
Brazil
USA
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←URBAN
←WATER
700
100%
USA
900
800
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Finished in feedlots
≈ 1 head per hectare
←PASTURELANDS
100
0
68
← CROPS
Barbosa et al. 2015
csr.ufmg.br/pecuaria
Brazil can expand by
50% its croplands
without further
deforestation
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World Bank 2010
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Simbrasil/Otimizagro
Soares-Filho et al. 2012
if cattle ranching is
intensified from 1 to
1.5 head/ha
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World Bank 2010
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Simbrasil/Otimizagro
Soares-Filho et al. 2012
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Meet Brazil’s new conservationist
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A spate of publications are suggesting that cattle intensification could
spare land for conservation
Based on the theory of land sparing
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Does it work?
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Green et al. 2005, Phalan et al. 2011
Sugarcane
10
80
70
8
60
50
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10
0
0
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
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Canada
Paraguay
United States
Brazil
Argentina
Others
10
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Brazil
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3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
15
30
20
0
2
Soy
25
20
40
4
30
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1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
EU imports 35 million tons of soy and
produces less than 1 million ton a year.
Yield (ton/ha)
90
Mha
12
Yield (ton/ha)
Mha
There is no evidence in Brazil
There is no causation relationship
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Deforestation is a quest for land,
cattle ranching the cheapest means
Bowman et al. 2012
And there are market failures!
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Plan to increase production by 40%
75.4 Mt
67.1 Mt
2014
Price
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FEEDFOOD.COM.BR
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Four companies control 43%
D2
Quantity
Merry and Soares-Filho, in review
1. Restoration of 30 Mha of pasture
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cornerstone of Brazil’s ABC and NDC policies
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Mtons C02eq
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55
50
45
40
35
CAFO
30
Enteric emission from cattle
ranching scenarios for the state of
Mato Grosso
Large impact on biodiversity and increased GHG emissions
2. Enforcement of the Forest Code
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All properties (5.4M) must enter an online registry system (SICAR)
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2-year countdown period
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By May 2005, 212 Mha, 54% of
properties
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And start developing
their PRA, landowners
commitment to restore
the FC debt.
3. Restoring and reforesting 12 million ha of forests
by 2030
35.7 Mha
Forest Code Debt
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Legal reserves + Riparian protection areas ≈ 18.5 + 5.5 = 24 Mha.
Soares-Filho et al. 2014.
Induced restoration is costly
Too costly!!
R$ 42 million for 3 thousand ha ≈
US$ 7,000 per ha
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Costs/benefits of FC compliance
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Azevedo, Rajão, et al, (under review)
4. End of illegal deforestation and compensating for GHG
from legal deforestation by 2030
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Mtons CO2eq
Emissions from simulated legal deforestation
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Sequestration by restoration of the FC debt
Fallacy of zero net deforestation!
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Ambitious targets but weak policies
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Study casts
doubts on
Brazil’s NDC
targets
Rajão and Soares-Filho 2015
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Marginal abatement cost curve
15
US$/tCO2e
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Forest Restoration
10
Cattle intensification
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Deforestation reduction
0
18%
Forest plantation
48%
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% GHG AFOLU
-5
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-15
20%
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Soy yields rely on the Amazon forest
Oliveira et al. 2013
13%
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Brazil’s market for trading forest
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Cota de Reserva Ambienta (CRA): Lower the cost of
compliance
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Offsetting FC debts with FC surplus (CRA)
≈ 4.2 Mha ≈ US$ 9.2 billion
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Rajão and Soares, 2014; Soares-Filho et al. in review
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Going beyond Legal Reserve compensation
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Brazil’s forest certificates (CRA) open the door to ecosystem
service payments
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Rajão, Soares-Filho (2015); Soares-Filho, Rajão et al (2016)
US$ 8.4±2.0 billion to purchase low-cost CRAs could cut legal
deforestation (19 Mha) in half, saving as much as 3.8±0.8
billion tons of CO2 emissions
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Rajão and Soares, 2014; Soares-Filho et al. in press
Lessons for Brazil
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Vielen Dank / Thank You / Obrigado
britaldo@csr.ufmg.br
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Presentation and references available at
www.csr.ufmg.br/~britaldo/MeetingTheChallenges.pdf
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Science in support of sound policy