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Dominion Institute of Canada ``
2008 Youth Election Study
Prepared for:
Dominion Institute of Canada
September 16, 2008
2
Methodology
Executive Summary
Results
3
Methodology
•
This online survey was conducted among Canadians between the ages of
18 and 25 between September 10 and 15, 2008.
•
The total study included 1000 responses eligible for inclusion in our analysis.
•
Margin of error +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
•
Demographic quotas were set up according to 2006 Census to reflect
actual demographic breakdown.
•
Please see regional breakdowns on the following page.
•
Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than an error
in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers.
4
Quota Description based on Stats Canada
2006
Description
N
Quebec French
Quota 1
190
English Quebec
Quota 2
60
Ontario
Quota 3
380
West provinces
Quota 4
300
Quota 6
East provinces
70
Quebec and ROC show dramatic differences – Tories gaining
in ROC but out of contention among young Quebecers
•
The environment (27%) and education (25%) are the most important issues in this election for
young voters. The economy (17%) and health (15%) make up a second tier while no other
issue is higher than 4%.
•
There is a tight three way race for the votes of young Canadians with the Liberals holding a
small lead nation-wide.
•
–
The race in Quebec has changed dramatically compared to 2008 with the Bloc losing almost half of its vote to the
Liberals, NDP and Greens while the Tories remain flat. The NDP are tied for first with the dimished Bloc at 27% with the
Liberals 7 point behind at 20%. The Greens have 12% of the vote while the Tories trail in fifth place among young
Quebecers.
–
The race in ROC has much smaller changes with the Tories and Greens up and the Liberals and NDP down. The Tories
are tied for first with the Liberals among young voters in English Canada.
Harper leads nation-wide as best PM with Layton a strong second.
–
In ROC Harper is up 10 points since the last election, while Layton leads Dion by three points in second place.
–
In Quebec Layton leads with 32%, up six since the last election, while Duceppe is down 12 points. Stephane Dion beats
Duceppe by 2 points while Harper is tied with Duceppe in Quebec.
5
Young Canadians more interested in their own election than
US, but they know they like Obama.
•
Most young Canadians are following the Canadian election at least once a week.
Young Canadians are following the Canadian election more closely than they are
following the American election.
•
Two thirds of young Canadians would vote for Obama if they could vote in the
US presidential election.
•
NDP leader Jack Layton is thought to be the Canadian leader most like Senator
Obama although most young Canadians don’t see any Canadian leader as
equivalent to Obama.
•
Conservative leader Stephen Harper thought to be the most like John McCain.
•
Few young Canadians see any Canadian leader as being like Sarah Palin but
among those who do, Harper leads with Elizabeth May in second.
6
‘Environment’ most important issue in the
upcoming federal election
Q
7
What is the most important issue for you in the upcoming federal election?
29%
The Environment
26%
Education
17%
The Economy
16%
Healthcare
4%
Foreign Affairs
Immigration
2%
Crime
2%
Other
4%
Note: Don’t know (5%) not shown
Liberals in the lead, Conservative and NDP close
behind in first choice vote
Q
If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for:
28%
17%
18%
17%
11%
5%
1%
The
Conservative
Party
The Liberal
Party
The New
Democratic
Party
The Bloc
Quebecois
The Green
Party
Another Party Undecided
Note: Would not vote (3%) not shown
8
9
Liberals also ahead in lean
Q
In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly?
34%
22%
15%
12%
7%
3%
0%
The
Conservative
Party
The Liberal
Party
The New
Democratic
Party
The Bloc
Quebecois
The Green
Party
Another Party Undecided
Note: Would not vote (7%) not shown
Liberals in the lead, Conservative and NDP close
behind in combined vote
Q
10
If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for… In that case,
which party do you lean toward slightly?
21%
24%
21%
13%
11%
6%
1%
]
The
Conservative
Party
The Liberal
Party
The New
Democratic
Party
The Bloc
Quebecois
The Green
Party
Another Party Undecided
Note: Would not vote (2%) not shown
11
Vote (Tracking)
Q
If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for… In that case,
which party do you lean toward slightly?
24% 24%
20% 21%
22% 21%
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
Green Party
Undecided
6%
Liberals
2005
2008
Conservatives
2005
2008
NDP
2005
2008
Bloc
2005
2008
2005
2008
2005
Note: ‘Other/Would not vote’ not shown
2008
12
Vote- Quebec (Tracking)
Q
If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for… In that case,
which party do you lean toward slightly?
49%
27%
20%
27%
18%
12%
11%
7%
Liberals
2005
2008
Conservatives
2005
8%
7%
2008
5%
NDP
2005
2008
Bloc
Quebecois
2005
2008
6%
Green Party
Undecided
2005
2005
2008
Note: ‘Other/Would not vote’ not shown
2008
13
Vote - Rest of Canada (Tracking)
Q
If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for… In that case,
which party do you lean toward slightly?
28%
26%
26%
23%
24%
19%
11%
Liberals
2005
2008
Conservatives
2005
2008
NDP
2005
2008
13%
10%
12%
Green Party
Undecided
2005
2005
2008
Note: ‘Other/Would not vote’ not shown
2008
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Liberals leading in decided vote
Q
Decided Vote
25%
28%
24%
15%
7%
1%
The
Conservative
Party
The Liberal
Party
The New
Democratic
Party
The Bloc
Quebecois
The Green
Party
Another Party
15
Decided vote (Tracking)
Q
Decided Vote
27%
28%
25%
25%
22%
24%
15%
14%
11%
7%
Liberals
2005
2008
Conservatives
2005
2008
NDP
2005
2008
Bloc
2005
2008
Green Party
2005
Note: ‘Other/Would not vote’ not shown
2008
16
Decided vote - Quebec (Tracking)
Q
Decided Vote
55%
29%
29%
21%
17%
13%
12%
7%
Liberals
2005
2008
Conservatives
2005
9%
8%
2008
NDP
2005
2008
Bloc
2005
2008
Green Party
2005
Note: ‘Other/Would not vote’ not shown
2008
17
Decided vote - Rest of Canada (Tracking)
Q
Decided Vote
32%
30%
30%
27%
28%
23%
16%
12%
Liberals
2005
2008
Conservatives
2005
2008
NDP
2005
2008
Green Party
2005
Note: ‘Other/Would not vote’ not shown
2008
One in four think Harper would make best Prime
Minister
Q
Which of the following party leaders would make the best Prime Minister of
Canada?
25%
21%
14%
11%
7%
3%
Stephan Dion
Stephen
Jack Layton of
of the Liberals Harper of the
the NDP
Conservatives
Gilles
Duceppe of
Bloc
Quebecois
Elizabeth May
of the Greens
Note: Don’t know (20%) not shown
None
18
19
Best Prime Minister (Tracking)
Q
Which of the following party leaders would make the best Prime Minister of
Canada?
25%
20% 21%
18%
14%
15%
10% 11%
7%
6%
4%
3%
Paul Martin /
Stephane Dion
2005
2008
Stephen
Harper
2005
2008
Jack Layton
Gilles Duceppe
2005
2005
2008
2008
Jim Harris /
Elizabeth May
2005 2008
None
2005
Note: Don’t know not shown
2008
20
Best Prime Minister – Quebec (Tracking)
Q
Which of the following party leaders would make the best Prime Minister of
Canada?
32%
25%
24%
14%
10%
12%
12%
8%
7%
4%
Paul Martin /
Stephane Dion
2005
2008
Stephen Harper
2005
2008
Jack Layton
2005
2008
Gilles Duceppe
2005
2008
Jim Harris /
Elizabeth May
2005 2008
21
Best Prime Minister – ROC (Tracking)
Q
Which of the following party leaders would make the best Prime Minister of
Canada?
28%
20%
19%
17%
17%
14%
5%
Paul Martin / Stephane
Dion
2005
2008
Stephen Harper
2005
2008
Jack Layton
2005
2008
7%
Jim Harris / Elizabeth
May
2005
2008
22
Canadian vs American Election
23
Young Canadians following the Canadian
election closer than the American
Q
How closely are you following…?
How closely are you
following the
CANADIAN election?
How closely are you
following the
AMERICAN election?
Every day
15% 3%
8% 4%
Several times a week
42%
28%
34%
35%
At least once a week
Less than once a week
Note: Don’t know (2%) not shown
9%
18%
Never
Two-thirds would vote for Obama if they could
vote in the US
Q
If you could vote in the US, who would you vote for as President?
67%
17%
6%
Barack Obama
John McCain
10%
Neither
Don't know
24
Quebec youth more likely to vote Obama than
ROC
Q
If you could vote in the US, who would you vote for as President?
Quebec
ROC
75%
65%
7%
Barack
Obama
John
McCain
12%
17%
16%
3%
Neither
Don't
know
Barack
Obama
John
McCain
6%
Neither
Don't
know
25
While many uncertain, Layton most like Barack
Obama
Q
Which Canadian party leader is MOST like Democratic president nominee Barack
Obama?
15%
9%
Stephane Dion
9%
Stephen Harper
Jack Layton
2%
3%
Gilles Duceppe
Elizabeth May
Note: Don’t know (46%) not shown
26
27
Quebec most likely to say Layton is like
Obama; Albertans think Harper
Q
Which Canadian party leader is MOST like Democratic president nominee Barack Obama?
19%
Prairies
BC
Atlantic Canada
Ontario
Alberta
Jack Layton
11%
23%
Quebec
14%
7%
13%
Stephane Dion
8%
10%
12%
10%
12%
6%
10%
3%
10%
Stephen Harper
5%
2%
4%
1%
2%
4%
11%
17%
5%
1%4%
1%
1%
Gilles Duceppe
Note: Don’t know not shown
Elizabeth May
28
Again, while many unsure, Harper most like
McCain
Q
Which Canadian party leader is MOST like Republican president nominee John
McCain?
36%
8%
4%
Stephane Dion
Stephen Harper
Jack Layton
2%
1%
Gilles Duceppe
Elizabeth May
Note: None (7%) and Don’t know (42%) not shown
29
Quebec most likely to see Harper as McCain
Q
Which Canadian party leader is MOST like Democratic president nominee John McCain?
Quebec
Prairies
10%
37%
Ontario
9%
32%
BC
Stephen Harper
9%
39%
Atlantic Canada
Alberta
6% 3%
1%
55%
Stephane Dion
6%
5% 2%2%
5% 3%3%2%
29%
16%
3%
4% 1%
13%
5%
Jack Layton
5%
Gilles Duceppe
Note: Don’t know not shown
Elizabeth May
30
Six in ten unsure who is most like Sarah Palin
Q
Which Canadian party leader is MOST like Republican vice president nominee
Sarah Palin?
11%
7%
4%
Stephane Dion
Stephen Harper
3%
3%
Jack Layton
Gilles Duceppe
Elizabeth May
Note: None (12%) and Don’t know (61%) not shown
31
Quebec most likely to see Harper as Palin;
Prairies and Ontario choose Elizabeth May
Q
Which Canadian party leader is MOST like Democratic president nominee Sarah Palin?
Prairies
13%
Atlantic Canada
13%
BC
8%
Ontario
8%
Alberta
Stephen Harper
7%
3%
3% 2%
5%
Stephane Dion
3%
2%
3%
3% 1%
3%
4%
3%
3%
17%
Quebec
4%
12%
7%
6%
3%
3%
4%
10%
4%
Jack Layton
Gilles Duceppe
Note: Don’t know not shown
Elizabeth May
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