8.0%
Percentage
Change
in
Northeast
Louisiana
PopulaTon:
2000‐2010
5.6%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.5%
0.0%
NE
LA
less
Ouach/Lincoln
RLMA
8
‐2.0%
Ouach/Lincoln
only
‐0.7%
‐4.0%
‐6.0%
‐5.4%
2012
Northeast
LA
Business
Outlook
Summit
Dr.
Robert
Eisenstadt,
University
of
LA‐
Monroe
Dr.
John
Francis,
LA
Tech
University
The
BOS
presentaTons
will
be
on‐line
at
cba.ulm.edu/cber
PopulaTon
Change
by
MSA:
2000‐2010
15.0%
10.0%
14.5%
13.7%
5.0%
6.1%
0.0%
7.0%
3.1%
6.0%
3.8%
‐5.0%
1.2%
‐11.3%
‐10.0%
‐15.0%
2000‐2010
change
in
US
=
9.7%
2000‐2010
change
in
LA
=
1.4%
Index
of
populaTon
change
1980‐2010
(1980=1):
US,
LA,
NELA
1.40
1.30
USA
1.20
LA
1.10
NELA
1.00
Ouachita/Lincoln
0.90
NELA
less
Ouach/
Linc
0.80
1980
1990
2000
2010
Hispanic
as
%
of
PopulaTon
1980
2010
Louisiana
2.35%
4.25%
United
States
6.45%
16.35%
The
Change
in
Real
Louisiana
GSP:
Private
plus
Public
Sector
2006-2008
State
2008-2010
Rank
% change
Rank
% change
North Dakota
1
13.3%
3
9.2%
South Dakota
2
11.0%
9
2.8%
Wyoming
3
9.6%
2
9.5%
Oregon
4
7.5%
44
-1.7%
Washington
5
6.3%
35
-0.8%
Louisiana
50
-5.2%
5
6.8%
The
Change
in
Real
Louisiana
GSP:
Private
Sector
Only
2006-2008
State
2008-2010
Rank
% change
Rank
% change
North Dakota
1
17.5%
3
8.7%
South Dakota
2
12.9%
9
2.4%
Oregon
3
8.3%
42
-2.1%
Washington
4
6.8%
37
-1.6%
Utah
5
6.4%
35
0.0%
Louisiana
50
-5.2%
5
7.3%
The
Change
in
Real
Louisiana
GSP
conTnued:
Private
plus
Public
Sector
2006-2008
State
2008-2010
Rank
% change
Rank
% change
Louisiana
50
-5.2%
5
6.8%
Arkansas
36
0.6%
21
0.8%
Mississippi
6
6.3%
38
-1.4%
Texas
10
5.2%
8
3.3%
The
Change
in
Real
Louisiana
GSP
conTnued:
Private
Sector
Only
2006-2008
State
2008-2010
Rank
% change
Rank
% change
Louisiana
50
-5.2%
5
7.3%
Arkansas
31
0.6%
21
0.5%
Mississippi
8
6.0%
41
-1.9%
Texas
10
5.2%
8
3.1%
The
Change
in
Real
GSP
by
LA
MSA
2006-2008
Metropolitan Area
Houma-Bayou CaneThibodaux
Lafayette
Alexandria
Monroe
Shreveport-Bossier City
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner
Baton Rouge
Lake Charles
2008-2010
State
Rank
%
change
State
Rank
%
change
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
13.3%
6.2%
1.3%
-2.1%
-4.3%
-4.9%
-6.2%
-24.4
4
2
7
5
1
3
6
8
8.0%
17.9%
-3.6%
0.4%
21.8%
8.0%
0.2%
-5.2%
Annual
%
Change
in
New
Vehicle
Sales
(units)
in
the
Region,
State
and
the
US*
50.0%
42.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
12.4%
4.3%
10.0%
10.2%
‐20.0%
United
States
2007‐08
‐9.3%
2008‐09
2009‐10
‐10.5%
‐18.0%
‐20.2%
‐23.3%
‐30.0%
‐40.0%
Ouach
Dealer
Sample
Louisiana
1.9%
0.0%
‐10.0%
12.7%
‐33.7%
*Data
source
:
Cross‐Sell.
Local
figures
esTmated
from
dealer
sample.
2010‐11
Building
Permit:
Ouachita
Parish
ResidenTal
Units
Index
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
USA
LA
0.6
Ouachita
0.4
0.2
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Housing Permits Ouachita Parish
Building
Permits
2005
588
2006
463
2007
407
2008
224
2009
200
2010
237
2011
301
Building
Permit
ValuaTon
Ouachita
Parish
ResidenTal
ConstrucTon
ValuaTon
Index
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
USA
0.8
LA
0.6
Ouachita
0.4
0.2
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Housing Permits Ouachita Parish
Total
Cost
(millions
$)
2005
$98.7
2006
$73.2
2007
$63.9
2008
$38.0
2009
$34.1
2010
$37.3
2011
57.5
Building
Permits
by
MSA
ResidenTal
Units
Index
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Baton
Rouge
Lafayede
1
Lake
Charles
0.8
Monroe
0.6
New
Orleans
0.4
Shreveport
0.2
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Building
Permit
ConstrucTon
ValuaTon
by
MSA
ValuaTon
Index
1.75
1.5
Baton
Rouge
1.25
Lafayede
Lake
Charles
1
Monroe
New
Orleans
0.75
Shreveport
0.5
0.25
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
20010‐11
Change
in
ExisTng
Home
Prices:
Top
5
MSAs
% Change Median Selling Price: 2010-2011
Rank
MSA
% change
2011 Median Price
1
Fort Myers, FL
15.7%
$102,900
2
Grand Rapids, MI
8.7%
$99,500
3
Glens Falls, NY
5.9%
$156,200
4
Abilene, TX
5.7%
$119,200
5
Melbourne-Titusville, FL
5.3%
$108,500
10
Northeast Louisiana*
3.1%
$140,100
United
States
=
‐4.0%
Southern
United
States
=
‐2.9%
Source:
NaTonal
AssociaTon
of
Realtors
(149
MSAs
observed).
Ouachita,
Morehouse,
Lincoln,
Union
Parishes.
And
the
lowest
ranking
MSAs:
% Change Median Selling Price: 2010-2011
MSA
Rank
% change
2011 Median Price
145
Salem, OR
-15.7%
$146,200
146
Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
-16.2%
$104,800
147
Akron, OH
-16.5%
$90,900
148
Phoenix-Scottsdale, AZ
-17.0%
$115,500
149
Allentown-Bethlehem, PA
-17.2%
$185,400
%
Change
in
Median
Home
Prices:
Louisiana
MSA’s:
2009
2010
2011
%chg 2008-11
Baton Rouge
$163,000
$169,600
$163,400
0.25%
New Orleans
$160,100
$159,700
$153,400
-4.18%
Northeast Louisiana
$135,000
$135,950
$140,100
3.78%
Shreveport
$147,000
$156,600
$156,200
6.26%
United States
$172,100
$173,100
$166,200
-3.43%
Source:
NaTonal
AssociaTon
of
Realtors
ExisTng
Home
Sales
in
Lincoln,
Morehouse,
Ouachita,
Union
Parishes:
Median
Selling
Prices
Home Price less than $200,000
Close price
Price per Sq
Foot
2008
$115,000
2009
$118,000
2010
$114,500
2011
$120,000
$71.05
$73.49
$72.11
$72.17
Home Price Greater Than or Equal to $200,000
Close price
Price per Sq
Foot
2008
$252,000
2009
$249,900
2010
$252,000
2011
$260,000
$106.41
$106.33
$107.51
$106.65
All Existing Homes
Close price
Price per Sq
Foot
2008
$128,850
2009
$135,000
2010
$135,950
2011
$140,100
$77.12
$80.81
$79.73
$80.25
Source:
NE
LA
Board
of
Realtors
MLS
Total
Number
of
Sales:
Lower
price
homes
are
leaving
the
NELA
market.
2008
2009
2010
2011
Under $200,000
1262
1198
1161
1080
$200,000 and up
290
317
340
387
Ouachita
foreclosures
conTnue
to
decline:
2004
593
2005
486
Ouachita
Parish
Foreclosures
2006
2007
2008
2009
601
655
601
650
2010
582
2011
459
And
Total
Bankruptcies
in
the
LA
Western
District
Lag
the
State
and
NaTon
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
West
LA
Louisiana
1.40
U.S.
1.20
1.00
0.80
2007
2008
2009
• Western
District
2010
=11,455
(2010‐11:
‐8.6%)
• Louisiana
2010
=
18,006
(2010‐11:
‐6.4%)
• U.S
(2010‐11:
‐8.1%)
Source:
U.S.
Federal
Court
2010
2011
Ouachita
Parish
Non‐automoTve
Retail
Sales
Index
1.15
1.10
1.05
Ouachita*
1.00
LA*
US
0.95
0.90
0.85
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
esTmate
=
$2.40
billion
2010
esTmate
=
$2.32
billion
*Ouachita
and
LA
figures
esTmated
from
sales
tax
revenue.
2011
Spending
on
New
and
Used
Motor
Vehicles
In
Ouachita
Parish
1.1
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
Ouachita
0.85
US
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
2006
2007
2008
2011
esTmate
=
$238.2
million
2009
2010
2011
Seasonal
Sales
(Nov‐Dec)
in
Ouachita
Parish,
The
State
and
US:
Index
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
Ouachita
1.00
LA
0.95
US
0.90
0.85
0.80
2006
2007
2008
2011
esTmate
=
$448.6
million
2010
esTmate
=
$446.0
million
2009
2010
2011
The
Northeast
Louisiana
Labor
Market
NELA
Labor
Force:
Household
Survey
156,000
155,000
154,000
153,000
152,000
151,000
150,000
149,000
148,000
155,192
154,064
153,799
153,883
152,957
150,733
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
Labor
Force
Index:
NELA
1.06
1.05
USA
1.04
1.03
Louisiana
1.02
Ouachita
1.01
1.00
NELA
exludes
Ouachita
0.99
0.98
0.97
2006
*
EsTmated
from
preliminary
data
.
NELA
Includes
Lincoln
Parish
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
NELA
Employment:
Household
Survey
148,000
147,122
145,255
146,000
145,655
144,000
142,000
140,655
140,844
140,000
138,000
136,118
136,000
134,000
132,000
130,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
Employment
Index
NELA
1.06
1.04
USA
1.02
1.00
Louisiana
0.98
Ouachita
0.96
0.94
NELA
exludes
Ouachita
0.92
0.90
2006
*
EsTmated
from
preliminary
data
.
NELA
Includes
Lincoln
Parish
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
NELA
Unemployment:
Household
Survey
16,000
13,144
14,000
14,348
14,616
2010
2011*
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,761
8,409
7,702
6,000
4,000
2,000
‐
2006
2007
2008
2009
Unemployment
Index
2006‐2011
2.15
1.95
USA
1.75
Louisiana
1.55
Ouachita
1.35
NELA
exludes
Ouachita
1.15
0.95
2006
2007
2008
*
EsTmated
from
preliminary
data
.
NELA
Includes
Lincoln
Parish
2009
2010
2011*
NELA
Unemployment:
Household
Survey
16,000
13,144
14,000
14,348
14,616
2010
2011*
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,761
8,409
7,702
6,000
4,000
2,000
‐
2006
2007
2008
2009
Unemployment
Rate
2006‐2011
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
USA
8.00
Louisiana
7.00
6.00
Ouachita
5.00
NELA
exludes
Ouachita
4.00
3.00
2006
2007
2008
*
EsTmated
from
preliminary
data
.
NELA
Includes
Lincoln
Parish
2009
2010
2011*
Non
Seasonally
Adjusted
Figures
for
January
2012
from
Household
Survey
Unemployment
Rate
Unemployed
Ouachita
Parish
8.10%
5,666
Northeast
Louisiana
9.80%
14,620
Louisiana
7.50%
‐‐
United
States
8.80%
‐‐
Employment
Index
by
MSA
1.10
1.08
1.06
Baton
Rouge
MSA
1.04
Lafayede
MSA
1.02
Lake
Charles
MSA
1.00
Monroe
MSA
0.98
New
Orleans
MSA
0.96
Shreveport
MSA
0.94
0.92
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
Labor
Force
Index
by
MSA
1.12
1.10
1.08
Baton
Rouge
MSA
1.06
Lafayede
MSA
1.04
Lake
Charles
MSA
1.02
Monroe
MSA
1.00
New
Orleans
MSA
0.98
Shreveport
MSA
0.96
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
Wage
and
Salary
Disbursements/Personal
Income
0.6
0.56
0.52
USA
0.48
LA
Monroe
MSA
0.44
0.4
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Real
Wage
and
Salary
Disbursements
Index
1.14
1.12
1.1
1.08
LA
1.06
USA
1.04
Monroe
MSA
1.02
1
0.98
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
ConstrucTon
Jobs
in
NELA
7200
6800
6988
6922
7000
6809
6794
6724
6600
6315
6400
6257
6200
6000
5800
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
*2011
ConstrucTon
Employment
Index
1.2
1.15
1.1
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.7
NELA
Ouachita
LA
US
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NELA
Manufacturing
Jobs
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
‐
14,114
2005
13,145
2006
12,534
11,832
2007
2008
9,858
10,055
9,977
2009
2010
*2011
Manufacturing
Employment
Index
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
NELA
Ouachita
LA
US
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NELA
Retail
Jobs
17,400
17,200
17,000
16,800
16,600
16,400
16,200
16,000
15,800
17,324
16,983
16,892
16,590
16,512
2005
16,408
16,415
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
*2011
Retail
Employment
Index
1.06
1.04
1.02
NELA
1
Ouachita
0.98
LA
0.96
US
0.94
0.92
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NELA
Finance/Insurance
Jobs
6,200
6,051
6,000
5,809
5,800
5,600
5,524
5,400
5,391
5,424
5,406
5,407
2006
2007
2008
2009
5,200
5,000
2005
2010
*2011
Finance/Insurance
Employment
Index
1.15
1.1
1.05
NELA
LA
1
US
0.95
0.9
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NELA
Healthcare
Jobs
25,500
25,000
25,000
23,500
25,098
25,192
2009
2010
*2011
24,364
24,500
24,000
25,276
24,047
23,424
23,000
22,500
22,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
Healthcare
Employment
Index
1.2
1.15
1.1
NELA
1.05
Ouachita
1
LA
0.95
US
0.9
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Job
CreaTon/Job
DestrucTon….
2.20
Mining
Jobs
by
MSA:
2005‐2011*
2.00
New
Orleans‐1
1.80
Baton
Rouge‐2
1.60
Houma‐3
Lafayede‐4
1.40
Lake
Charles‐5
1.20
Alexandria‐6
Shreveport‐7
1.00
Monroe‐8
0.80
2005
2011
EsTmated
Employment
2006
2007
New
Orleans‐1
Baton
Rouge‐2
7,240
1,993
2008
2009
2010
2011*
Houma‐
Lafayede‐
Lake
Alexandria‐ Shreveport‐ Monroe‐
3
4
Charles‐5
6
7
8
5,209
22,714
1,504
1,337
8,595
287
Oil
and
Gas
Employment
in
Louisiana
1.3
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
Oil
and
gas
extracTon
Support
AcTviTes
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
2005
2006
ExtracTon/Drilling
Support
AcTviTes
2007
2005
8,032
33,032
2008
2006
7,468
37,024
2009
2007
7,785
38,915
2010
2011*
2008
8,756
41,992
2009
8,873
38,386
2010
8,533
39,570
2011*
8,602
39,916
Commercial
ConsumpTon
$14.00
$12.00
USA
$10.00
Louisiana
$8.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ResidenTal
ConsumpTon
$16.00
$14.00
Natural
Gas
Prices:
2006‐2011
US
$12.00
LA
$10.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Industrial
Use
$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
US
LA
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
Century
Link
and
Growth
in
Northeast
Louisiana
EsTmated
impact
of
100
Call
Center/Financial
Services
jobs
($25,000/year)
Accumulated
Economic
TransacTons
Household
Earnings
Full‐Tme
Equivalent
Jobs
Direct
effect
$7,763,298
$2,500,000
100
Indirect
Effect
$1,712,584
$466,125
22
Induced
Effect
$6,742,305
$766,500
38
Total
Impact
$16,218,186
$3,732,625
160
CenturyLink
Expansion:
Total
Output
Effects
on
Northeast
Louisiana*
2009
Expansion
2011
Expansion
Total
both
events
Direct
$62,228,368
$204,425,128
$266,653,497
Indirect
$27,946,760
$91,807,325
$119,754,085
Induced
$18,514,286
$60,820,898
$79,335,184
Total
$108,689,414
$357,053,352
$465,742,766
CenturyLink
*Expected
to
occur
over
7‐10
years
CenturyLink
Expansion:
Northeast
Louisiana
Employment
Effects*
CenturyLink
2009
Expansion
2011
Expansion
Total
both
events
Direct
jobs
350
796
1146
Indirect
jobs
192
438
630
Induced
jobs
199
452
651
Total
jobs
741
1,686
2,427
*Expected
to
occur
over
7‐10
years
CenturyLink
Expansion:
Northeast
Louisiana
Household
Income
Effects*
Total
Both
CenturyLink
2009
Expansion
2011
Expansion
Events
Average
wage
(direct)
$45,000
$65,000
$58,892
Total
direct
wages
$15,750,000
$51,740,000
$67,490,000
Total
indirect
wages
$7,073,325
$23,236,434
$30,309,759
Total
induced
wages
$5,896,800
$19,371,456
$25,268,256
Total
income
impact
$28,720,125
$94,347,890
$123,068,015
*Expected
to
occur
over
5‐10
years
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you
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