Per Capita PI as % of State Per Capita PI
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
1.05
Baton Rouge-Pierre
Lafayette-Acadiana
1
Monroe-Bastrop
N. Orleans-Metairie-Bogalusa
0.95
Shreve-Bossier-Minden
0.9
0.85
0.8
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010 Business Outlook Summit – Northeast LA
Dr. John Francis
(Louisiana Tech University)
Dr. Robert Eisenstadt (University of Louisiana – Monroe)
The following presentations will be available
for review on-line at:
cba.ulm.edu/cber
CURRENT INDICATORS
Foreclosure Rate: % of housing units.
1.06
1.04
TX
0.43
MS
0.18
1.29
AR
2009
1.12
2008
0.63
LA
0.39
2.21
U.S.
1.84
0
0.5
Nevada = 10.17%
Vermont = 0.05%
National data source: RealtyTrac
1
1.5
2
2.5
Ouachita Parish Foreclosures
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
593 486 601 655 601 650
Business and Personal Bankruptcies: annual % change.
All Bankruptcy Filings
34.5%
35.0%
30.2%
30.0%
2007-08
2008-09
25.0%
18.5%
20.0%
15.3%
12.1%
15.0%
13.9%
2008-09 % Change
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
60%
U.S.
LA Western
Dist.
Louisiana
50%
51.3%
38.4%
33.0%
40%
33.8%
US
30%
17.7%
14.6%
20%
10%
0%
Business
Personal
LA
LA-West
New Residential Building Permits and Valuation
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.60.6
Index of Residential Building Permits
Index of Residential Building Permits
Total Permits Issued
US
LA
1,398
23,379
572
12,652
2007
2009
MLU
555
211
0.40.4
0.20.2
0 0
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
Monroe
Monroe
MSA
MSA
2007
2007
Louisiana
Louisiana
2008
2008
2009
2009
US US
Total Permit Valuation ($000)
US
LA
MLU
2007
$225,236,551 $3,153,525 $63,946
2009
$94,516,000 $1,863,527 $34,136
Valuation Index
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2004
2005
2006
Monroe MSA
2007
Louisiana
2008
US
2009
Louisiana Motor Vehicle Registrations
LA New Vehicle Registration
157,665
160,000
140,000
126,574
120,000
98,083
92,105
100,000
2007
89,258
65,782
80,000
60,000
2009
40,000
20,000
0
LT&Vans
Cars
% change 2008-09: LA = -26.8%; US = -21.2%
Cross­Sell Reports
2008
Northeast Louisiana Motor Vehicle Registrations/Sales
NE Louisiana New Vehicle Registration
12000
10000
10,201
8,418
2007
6,281
8000
4,462
6000
4,376
2008
3,254
2009
4000
2000
0
LT&Vans
Cars
2007
NELA Dealer Sample 11,547
Annual change
n/a
2008
2009
9,683
6,342
-16.14% -34.50%
Non-automotive Retail Sales: 2008-2009
Year-over-year 3-month average % change
Annual % change in non-auto retail (Ouachita Parish only)
10.0%
5.0%
3 month avg chg - Ouachita Parish
0.0%
3 month avg chg - US
j
f
m
a
m
j
j
a
s
o
n
d
j
-5.0%
-10.0%
2008
United States
Ouachita Parish
2009
United States
Ouachita Parish
Retail sales estimated from sales tax data: Monroe Department of Tax and Revenue
%chg Annual
2.4%
2.8%
%chg Annual
‐4.8%
‐1.2%
% chg Seasonal
‐6.2%
1.3%
% chg Seasonal
3.5%
‐3.0%
Unemployment Claims
Continuing Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Louisiana
USA
Jan‐10
Jan‐09
% change
236,502
138,301
71.0%
5.69 million
5.78 million
‐1.6%
Duration of Claims (weeks)
Jan‐10
Jan‐09
Louisiana
19.7
11.4
USA
19.8
14.6
Unemployment rate
Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
January‐10
January‐09
United States
10.6
8.5
Louisiana
8.2
6.1
Monroe MSA
8.7
6.4
NE Louisiana
Shreveport MSA
12.4
7.7
9.4
7.6
2005-2009 (2ND QTR) EMPLOYMENT
IN NELA, LA, US
Total Covered Employment (Jobs)
Northeast Louisiana Jobs
130,737
131000
130000
130,257
129,690
129,360
129000
128000
Jobs index: 2005 = 1.0
127,050
127000
1.04
126000
1.03
125000
1.02
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1.01
NE LA
1
LA
0.99
US
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
2005
Figures as of
2nd
qtr 2009: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS.
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total Employment: Household Survey
1.15
1.1
1.05
US
LA
MSA
1
NELA
0.95
0.9
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009 Change from Employment 2008
United States 137,953,000 ‐5,397,000
Louisiana 1,889,596
‐81,019
Monroe MSA
73,925
‐3,461
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, LA Department of Labor
NE Louisiana 139,334
‐5,360
Finance and insurance
NE Louisiana
5540
5524
5520
5500
5480
5460
5424
5440
1.04
5406
5420
5407
1.02
5391
5400
5380
1
5360
0.98
5340
5320
NE LA
0.96
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
LA
0.94
US
0.92
0.9
0.88
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Construction
NE LA
6988
7000
6922
6950
6900
6850
6809
6794
6800
6750
6724
6700
1.15
6650
1.1
6600
6550
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1.05
1
NE LA
LA
0.95
US
0.9
0.85
0.8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Manufacturing
NE LA
16000
14114
13145
14000
12534
11832
12000
9858
10000
8000
1.05
6000
1
4000
0.95
2000
0.9
0
0.85
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
NE LA
0.8
LA
0.75
US
0.7
0.65
0.6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Retail Trade
NE LA
17324
17400
17200
16983
16892
17000
16800
16600
1.06
16512
16408
1.04
16400
1.02
16200
1
16000
NE LA
0.98
15800
LA
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0.96
US
0.94
0.92
0.9
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Health Care & Social Assistance
NE LA
25276
25500
25000
25000
24364
24500
24047
24000
23500
23424
1.15
23000
1.1
22500
1.05
22000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1
NE LA
LA
0.95
US*
0.9
0.85
0.8
2005
*US data contains both education and health care
2006
2007
2008
2009
THE HOUSING MARKET
Population
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
% chg 2008-09
0.0%
Louisiana
NELA
-2.0%
NW
Ouachita
Louisiana
Lincoln
NELA non
metro
% chg 2000-09
-4.0%
-6.0%
2009
Louisiana
NELA
NWLA
4,492,076
352,185
544,002
Gain f/2008
81,280
6,049
9,153
NELA Existing Homes Sold: 2005-2009
Days on Market Index: 2006=1.00
1.15
1.13
1.11
1.09
1.07
1.05
1.03
1.01
0.99
0.97
0.95
2009 DoM
<$200k
121
$200k+ All homes
151
128
<$200k
$200k+
All homes
2006
2007
2008
2009
Existing home sales index: 2006=1.00
1.10
1.00
NELA
0.90
listed
sold
2006
3,110
1,846
2007
3,130
1,807
2008
2,972
1,577
2009
2,712
1,525
LA
0.80
US
0.70
0.60
0.50
2006
2007
2008
2009
Existing Homes: Price per heated square foot (median)
Median Price Per Sq. Foot Index: 2006=1.00
1.10
1.08
1.06
<$200k
$200k+
1.04
All homes
1.02
1.00
0.98
0.96
2006
2007
2009 Price
<$200k
$72.27
2008
2009
$200k+
$103.00
All homes
$78.64
NELA Home Sales – Mean (Median) Sold Price
$288,672
$300,000
$281,230
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$144,699
$152,303
$114,280 $116,562
2006
2007
2008
$100,000
Median Sold Price Indices
2009
1.1
$50,000
1.05
1
$0
<200,000
>=200,000
Total
0.95
0.9
Mean Sold Price: NELA
NELA
0.85
US
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
2006
2007
2008
2009
LOOKING AHEAD IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
Selected Sources of Growth for Monroe/NELA: 2011-2015
Estimated direct effects at peak operations
Estimated indirect effects using BEA RIMS II Multipliers.
Gardner Denver Thomas
1.
•
•
230 jobs; $9.2 million
300 jobs; $7.5 million
ConAgra (sweet potato processing)
2.
•
•
500 jobs; $15 million
900 jobs; $25 million
CenturyLink (merger)
3.
•
•
350 jobs; $16 million
450 jobs; $14 million
V-Vehicle
4.
•
•
1400 jobs; $56 million
2200 jobs; $50 million
(Less Accent Marketing)
5.
•
•
(350 jobs; $7.5 million)
(171 jobs; $5.3 million)
Employment Gains: 2010-2015
Covered Employment(Jobs)
131,465
132,000
131,000
130,000
129,000
128,000
127,000
126,000
125,000
124,000
123,000
122,000
127,400
127,885
127,485
127,400
126,735
125,355 125,355
2009E
2010E
Forecast 1
% change 2010‐2012
% change 2012‐2015
2012E
2015E
Forecast 2
Forecast 1
1.70%
3.10%
Forecast 2
1.10%
1.00%
Household Income Gains: 2010-2015
Chart Wages/Salaries ($Billions)
$4.30
4.3
4.25
4.2
4.15
$4.13
$4.10 $4.10
$4.05 $4.05
4.1
$4.12
$4.08
4.05
4
3.95
3.9
2009E
2010E
Forecast 1
% change 2010‐2012
% change 2012‐2015
2012E
2015E
Forecast 2
Forecast 1
2.00%
4.10%
Forecast 2
0.70%
1.00%
Back to Basics…
In case you don’t land the big one:
 Economic development the old fashioned way
 Pedestrian
friendly environment.
 Green space
 Diversified economy
 Quality public school system
 Capital (infrastructure) and technology
Next up:
State, National, and Regional Wage Growth
The influence of changes in the capital stock and per­
capita spending on health care.