The Bulgarian National Bank’s experience
with loan-by-loan data collection for the
compilation of external statistics
Emil Dimitrov
Bulgarian National Bank
Workshop on Integrated Management of Micro-databases
Porto, 20 June 2013
The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the BNB
Strong demand for high quality statistics
• Reliable statistics are corner-stone for evidence-based policy
making
• The general public in EU is confronted with a loss of
confidence in the economy and the users look more carefully
at the published data
• At present different users pay more attention on data
quality than in the pre-crisis period
• The data quality is especially important in the areas linked to
the package on economic governance (Six-Pack) and
particularly for the Scoreboard indicators (Macroeconomic
Imbalances Procedure)
• External statistics has two indicators in the Scoreboard –
Current account balances and Net international investment
position (both as a percent of GDP)
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Key Code of Practice Principles (CoPP) for high
quality data
User needs
Sound methodology
(CoPP7)
Appropriate statistical
procedures
(CoPP8)
Accuracy and reliability
(CoPP12)
Non-excessive burden
on respondents
(CoPP9)
Coherence and
comparability
(CoPP14)
Cost Effectiveness
(CoPP10)
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External statistics & Sound Methodology
Main methodological documents
•
SNA 2008 (SNA 1993); ESA 2010 (ESA 1995)
•
Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual 6th edition
(BoPM 5th edition)
•
External Debt Statistics: A Guide for Compilers and Users (2003) and four other
methodological guides and manuals
BG legal and methodological documents
•
Law on the Bulgarian National Bank (Article 42)
•
Currency Law
•
Ordinance № 27 of the BNB on the Balance of Payments Statistics
•
Guidelines to Ordinance № 27 for Balance of Payments Statistics
•
Methodological notes
In addition there is European Union Balance of Payments/International
Investment Position statistical methods (B.o.P Book, 2007) with detailed description of
methodologies and practices applied by EU member states
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Establishment of l-b-l micro database
• L-b-l external statistics micro database was developed in mid90s (for S.11, S.12 and S.13)
• Two purposes:
– Compilation of external statistics – BOP, External Debt and later IIP
– BoP and external debt projections (Bulgaria had IMF programs)
• No discussion regarding a key decision: a sample of whole
population as there was no registry with information regarding
resident-nonresident financing
• The establishment of l-b-l external statistics database has been
fundamentally driven by the lack of statistical information
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Main steps
• To develop a methodology mainly based on the requirements
of SNA 1993 and Balance of Payments Manual-5th edition (the
methodology was amended after the publication of the
External Debt Statistics: A Guide for Compilers and Users
(2003))
• To establish micro database (from a scratch)
– By amendments to the Currency Law – a legal requirement any company, bank
and non-bank corporation to register at the BNB every loan received/provided
from/to a non residents (above the threshold)
• To draft the Ordinance № 27 on the Balance of Payments
Statistics (including the design of reporting forms and
instructions)
• To develop the procedures for data checks (quality checks) and
data compilation
• To develop an IT system for data processing and management
of the micro database
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L-b-l Registration Form
The form consists of almost 60 data fields. Key of them are:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Loan type – Other credit or intercompany loan
Short/long term
Currency unit
Interest rate incl. fixed or floating
Dates of disbursements of tranches
Repayment schedule (with due amounts)
– Registration is to be done at the BNB within the 15 days after the contract
is signed.
– The BNB should be informed for any changes of the loan contract related
to the information included in the Registration form
– Threshold for reporting – above 25 000 euro
– Approx. 24 500 loans in the database
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Reporting Form
Key fields:
• Registration number of the loan
• Stock at the end of last reporting quarter
• Principal paid
• Interests paid
• Principal overdue
• Interest overdue
• Stock at the end of the reporting quarter
– Periodicity – Quarterly for companies; Monthly for banks
– Timelines – 15 days after the end of the reporting quarter/month
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External statistics micro
database
Data extract
Flows/Stocks
Balance of Payments
Current Account
Income
Investment income
Credit/Debit
Other investment income
Financial Account
Direct investments abroad/in reporting country
Other capital
External debt / International investment
position
Financial Account
Direct investments abroad/ in reporting country
Other capital
Other investments
Assets/Liabilities
Loans
Other assets/liabilities
Other investments
Assets/Liabilities
Loans
Other assets/liabilities
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Advantages of l-b-l external statistics micro
database
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reduced respondent’s burden
Cross checking of input data
Enhanced quality control
Improved data interpretation
Improved responsiveness to ad hoc data requests
Interlink of various micro databases may disclose
additional information
• Analysis of debt levels and structure
• Sensitivity to interest rate changes
• Financial stability analysis
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Conclusions
• Statistics in key areas as economic and financial policies
including for Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure must be
of impeccable quality
• Data quality reviews are important to ensure reliable, timely
and comparable statistics among EU countries
• However this is the case, if statistics under review meet two
key requirements: reliable input data (micro data) and strong
methodological base
• Micro data has strong advantages regarding enhanced data
quality
• There is no legislation on quality management for MIP
statistics that can be substitute for the lack of sound
methodology
• Both external statistics Scoreboard indicators meet the above
requirements
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Thank you for your attention!
Emil Dimitrov
Dimitrov.E@bnbank.org
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