Wind Power Opportunities and Challenges in Virginia Jonathan J. Miles, Ph.D.

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Wind Power Opportunities and

Challenges in Virginia

Jonathan J. Miles, Ph.D.

Professor, Department of Integrated Science and Technology

Director, JMU Office of the Virginia Wind Energy Collaborative

James Madison University

02 May 2006

CONGRATULATIONS VIRGINIA,

YOU NOW HAVE AN ENERGY

POLICY!

Virginians consumed

14.36 MWh/capita of electrical power in 2002

(U.S. Energy Information Agency)

That’s 1,639 W continuously per person!

• Virginia’s predominant primary-energy product is coal , as the state is a major coal producer. Virginia is also a producer of natural gas and of small amounts of petroleum . Several of the state’s rivers are harnessed to generate hydroelectric power.

• Virginia’s only major energy export is coal , as in-state usage in a typical year is less than half of the state’s production. Virginia’s consumption of natural gas and petroleum products exceed in-state production by a substantial margin.

• Virginia imports large amounts of energy, including petroleum products, natural gas , nuclear fuel for the state's nuclear power plants, and electrical energy that comes into the state on transmission lines. In fact,

Virginia's energy imports total more than 50 percent of total in-state usage.

• Petroleum products account for about twothirds of Virginia's net energy imports. Some of the coal used to generate electricity within the state is imported from out-of-state mines even though in-state coal usage is less than in-state production.

Virginia Electricity Generating Capability by Primary Energy

Source, U.S. Energy Information Agency, 1999

• Electricity generation percent of the primary energy consumed within the state was used to generate electricity. is a major use for the primary energy in Virginia. In 1999, about 30

Hazards include

• Mountaintop removal for coal extraction

• Contamination of aquifers

• Acidification of waterways

• Degradation of air quality

• Rising costs & volatility in prices for petroleum and natural gas

• Global climate change & displaced habitat

• Finite availability of primary power sources

• Disposition of spent fuel rods

• National security

• THERE ARE

ALTERNATIVES!

Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States

U.S. Department of Energy, 1987

Class 2 / 12.5-14.3 mph @ 50 m

Class 3 / 14.3-15.7 “

Class 4 / 15.7-16.8 “

Class 5 / 16.8-17.9 “

Class 6 / 17.9-19.7 “

Class 7 / 19.7-24.8 “

AWS TrueWind, LLC, 2003

What Wind Power Is . . . and Is Not!

• Abundant Homeland

Energy Resource

• Increasingly

Competitive

• Fastest Growing New

Source of Energy

• Economic,

Environmental and

National Security

Provider

• Perfect

• Sole Answer to All

Problems

• Best Option

Everywhere courtesy of P.J. Dougherty

Important Attributes

• EVERYTHING causes environmental impacts

• Power generation technology is generally ugly, noisy and dangerous

• This is about generating competitive power

• Wind can stabilize costs to customers

• Projects = Economic Development

• We all like making money

• All industries rely on tax incentives

• Wind projects are subject to variety of local, state and federal guidelines

• National investment in wind technology is matter of economic security courtesy of P.J. Dougherty

Drivers for Wind Power

• Declining Wind Costs

• Fuel Price Uncertainty

• Federal and State

Policies

• Economic

Development

• Green Power Market

• Energy Security courtesy of P.J. Dougherty

Cost of Energy and Cumulative Domestic Capacity

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1980 1984

*Year 2000 dollars

1988 1992 1996 2000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2004

Increased Turbine Size - R&D Advances - Manufacturing Improvements courtesy of P.J. Dougherty

Installed Wind Capacities

(1999, 2004) courtesy of P.J. Dougherty

Wind Power in the East

The Wind Farms

242 MW

Wethersfield, NY 6.6 MW on-line 2000

Somerset, PA 15MW on-line 2001

Mill Run, PA 9MW on-line 2001

Fenner, NY 30MW on-line 2001

Mountaineer, WV 66MW on-line 2002

Waymart, PA 64.5MW on-line 2003

Crescent Ridge, IL 51MW on-line 2005

In development:

Atlantic City, NJ 7.5MW Fall 2005

Bear Creek, PA 24MW Fall 2005

Princeton, MA 3MW 2006

Lempster, NH 24MW 2006

Jordanville, NY 150MW 2007

Highland County, VA 39 MW 2007 courtesy of Community Energy, Inc.

Atlantic City, NJ

courtesy of

Atlantic County Utility Authority

Sizes and Applications

Small (

10 kW)

• homes

• farms

• remote applications

Intermediate

(10-250 kW)

• village power

• hybrid systems

• distributed power

Large (660 kW -

2+MW)

• central station wind farms

• distributed power

• community wind courtesy of P.J. Dougherty

Economic Development Impacts

• Construction

• Operations and maintenance

• Property tax revenues

• Landowner revenues

• Manufacturing

• Multiplier effect

• Net economic development impacts of wind vs. fossil fuels courtesy of P.J. Dougherty

Economic Development Impacts

• Land Lease Payments : 2-3% of gross revenue $2500-4000/MW/year

• Local property tax revenue: 100 MW brings in on the order of $500,000 - 1 million/yr

• 1-2 jobs /MW during construction

• 2-5 permanent O&M jobs per 50-100 MW

• Local construction and service industry: concrete, towers usually done locally

• Investment as equity owners: production tax credit, accelerated depreciation courtesy of P.J. Dougherty

Plenty of Wind Offshore as Well!

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

N.Engl Mid-Atl Calif

Land

Offshore

Pac.

NW

*Class 4+ on Land; Class 5+ Offshore and Water Depths <70 ft; No land use exclusions

The U.S. Dept. of Energy estimates there to be 900 GW of offshore wind generation capacity (including deeper waters), an amount greater than the current installed U.S. electrical capacity.

courtesy of

AWS TrueWind

AWS TrueWind, 2003

Mid-Atlantic

Wind Power

Class Map

• Commercial Land Wind

Projects Require Class

4+ Wind Class

• Offshore Wind Projects

Require Class 5+ Due to

Higher Construction

Costs courtesy of AWS TrueWind

Mid-Atlantic

Water Depths

• Most Offshore Projects

Have Been Built in

Waters <50 ft Deep

• Some New Offshore

Projects Are In Waters

Up to 75 ft Deep

• Deep-Water Foundation

Designs Are Under

Development courtesy of AWS TrueWind

Mid-Atlantic

Windy Areas

• Windy Lands (Class 4+)

With and Without

Parks/Govt. Forests

• 42% of windy lands are in parks/govt. forests

• Windy Waters (Class 5+) with depths <70 ft

• 80% of windy waters beyond 3-mile limit courtesy of AWS TrueWind

What is JMU’s role?

SBALP Towers

Active

Decommissioned

Virginia State-Based Anemometer Loan Program funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and the

Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals, and Energy

What is JMU’s role?

(Awarded)

(Award deferred)

Virginia Small Wind Incentives Program funded by the Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals, and Energy

What is JMU’s role?

Wallops Island Feasibility Study funded by the U.S. Department of Energy

What is JMU’s role?

• SBALP

• VSWIP

• Feasibility Studies

( Wallops Island ,

Tangier Island)

• Tall Towers program

• Next Step initiative

(for self-guided resource assessment)

• Education

– Workshops and meetings

– Small and Large

(Federal) wind guidebooks

– Community outreach

– Briefings to zoning, planning, and legislative groups

Challenge

• The Virginia Wind Energy Collaborative was created to educate the public and inform decision-makers about wind energy development in Virginia, in support of the

Commonwealth’s need for reliable and affordable energy, environmental quality, and economic development .

• JMU was instrumental in the development of the

Landscape Classification System for Virginia .

Objectives

• To support efforts on the part of the wind energy community to recognize , avoid , and minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from utility-scale wind energy development in Virginia.

– Increase awareness of real and potential adverse environmental impacts for areas with Class 3 and above wind resources.

– Recommend site-specific assessments prior to significant financial commitment to development of a given site.

– Identify critical information gaps likely to impede accurate evaluation of adverse environmental impacts, including assessment of cumulative impacts at appropriate scales.

Virginia Wind Resource Map

Virginia Wind Resource Map

(Class 3 and above)

Introduction to the Landscape

Classification System for Virginia

• Three categories were defined and overlaid on Class 3 and above wind resources:

– Unsuitable: mapped

– Flagged

– Unclassified

Introduction to the Landscape

Classification System for Virginia

• Unsuitable: mapped

– These are areas of known geographic extent that are unsuitable for utility-scale wind development due to a direct conflict with legal mandates regarding the management of the site and/or to adverse impacts to unique biological and/or recreational resources.

Unsuitable: mapped

• National Park Service – Appalachian National Scenic Trail and 5-mile buffer zone

• National Park Service – Blue Ridge Parkway

• National Park Service – Shenandoah National Park (SNP)

• U.S. Forest Service – Wilderness Areas

• U.S. Forest Service – National Scenic Areas

• U.S. Forest Service – Special Biologic Areas (SBAs)

• U.S. Forest Service – Inventoried Roadless Areas (IRAs)

• U.S. Forest Service – Research Natural Areas (RNAs)

• U.S. Forest Service – Wilderness Study Areas

• U.S. Forest Service – Inventoried Old Growth Forest

• Virginia Department of Conservation & Recreation, Division of Natural Heritage –

State Parks and Natural Area Preserves

• Virginia Outdoor Foundation (VOF) Easements

• U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuges

• The Nature Conservancy Preserves

• Submerged Aquatic Vegetation

Unsuitable: mapped

(western ridges)

Unsuitable: mapped

(coastal)

Introduction to the Landscape

Classification System for Virginia

• Flagged

– Those areas are known to support sensitive resources or necessitating formal or legal administrative review that will require consultation with the appropriate State and/or

Federal agency and site-specific assessment to determine suitability.

Flagged for Potential Use Conflict

• National Park Service – Appalachian National Scenic Trail and 5 to

10-mile buffer zone

• The Nature Conservancy Ecoregional Portfolio Sites

• Virginia Department of Conservation & Recreation, Division of

Natural Heritage – Heritage Sites

• U.S. Forest Service – Candidate Wilderness Areas

• U.S. Forest Service – Uninventoried Roadless Areas

• U.S. Forest Service – Remaining National Forest Lands

• Virginia Department of Game & Inland Fisheries Wildlife

Management Areas

• Virginia Department of Game & Inland Fisheries Cold Water

Streams Survey – Trout Habitat

• Virginia Department of Forestry State Forests

Flagged

(western ridges)

Flagged

(coastal)

Introduction to the Landscape

Classification System for Virginia

• Unclassified

– These are areas in Class 2 or lower wind resource or for which insufficient data exist to assess suitability for utility-scale wind energy development.

Challenge

6% of nation’s electric load

7% of nation’s electric load

24% of nation’s electric load courtesy of

AWS TrueWind

WHY NOW?

July 2, 2002

Code

Purple

Code Red

Code

Orange

Code

Yellow

Clear

Courtesy of

VA DEQ

• 2002 was a bad summer for Ozone . . .

– 9 Code Red Days

– 19 Code Orange Days

• Washington, DC Ozone Health Effects (Code

Purple/Red/Orange Days)

– Children warned not to play outside for more than 10 minutes

– 130,000 Asthma Attacks

– 2,400 Emergency Room Visits

– 200+ Deaths

• The problem is worsening.

courtesy of

Alden Hathaway

Mount Storm Statistics*

West Virginia

CO

2

: 2,189 lbs/MWh

SO

2

: 18.5 lbs/MWh

NOx: 7.4 lbs/MWh

Hg: 0.0815 lbs/MWh

Note: Mt. Storm is installing SCR controls that should reduce overall NOx emissions by 50%

*Based on EPA E-Grid – 1998 Data

Hubbert Curve for U.S.

Hubbert Curve for World

Why now?

• “Stunning reduction” in Arctic Sea ice for fourth straight year – 2005 ice cover lowest in 100 years

– National Snow and Ice Data Center, NASA,

University of Washington

• 2005 projected to be hottest year on record

– NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

What You/We Can Do

• Be Educated Consumers/Citizens

• Be Active in Community Decisions

• Support Rational Framework for Decisionmaking

• Support Policies That Support You

• Request and Exercise Choice

http://vwec.cisat.jmu.edu

Wind Power Opportunities and

Challenges in Virginia

Jonathan J. Miles, Ph.D.

Professor, Department of Integrated Science and Technology

Director, JMU Office of the Virginia Wind Energy Collaborative

James Madison University

02 May 2006

Questions?

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