Agricultural investment and climate
adaptation in Tanzania’s Southern Agricultural
Growth Corridor
Jennifer West
PhD student, CICERO & Noragric, NMBU
CCIAM project
Background
• PhD research carried out under the CCIAM
project
• PPP strategic intervention: SUA, NMBU,
CICERO, private sector actors
• Focuses on the Southern Agricultural Growth
Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) investment
initiative
• Research on existing outgrower (OG) schemes
for sugarcane and rice in Morogoro Region
Research questions
• How can agricultural investments in the SAGCOT
region be directed in ways that benefit
smallholder farmers, rural communities and the
environment?
• What benefits and risks do OG schemes carry for
smallholder farmers, large estate, rural
communities and the environment?
• What role do and can OG schemes play in climate
adaptation across scales (smallholder,
community, scheme, and landscape level)?
What is an outgrower scheme?
• A type of contract farming
• Combines smallholder farmers and large, commercial
estates
• Promoted under SAGCOT and ‘Big Results Now’
initiatives
• Combines public, private, and donor investment
• National food security (import displacement) and
export goals
• Environment and development concerns
• Promoted as part of large-scale investments for
sugarcane and rice in Tanzania
Methods
• 14 months of fieldwork – starting in Lungo village, Turiani
• Mtibwa Sugar Estate (Mvomero district) and Kilombero
Plantations Limited (KPL) = main field sites
• Semi-structured household interviews (n=142) with OG and
non-OG households in two communities (Lungo and
Mkangawalo)
• Participant observation, group discussions and on-farm
research
• Interviews with OG estate managers/owners, OG associations
• Key informant interviews (300+) with a wide range of
stakeholders including local, district, national officials, farmer
associations, research institutes, NGOs, donors and
agricultural projects and programmes
• Additional interviews at Illovo Sugar Estate (Kilombero),
Mbarali Highland Estate and Madibira Smallholder Irrigation
Scheme (Mbeya) – for comparison
Field Sites
«MSE», Mvomero District
«KPL», Kilombero District
Map showing boundaries
of SAGCOT
Key variables
Mtibwa Sugar Estate
Kilombero Plantations
Limited
Crop sown (contract)
Sugarcane
Rice
+ other crops grown by
smallholders
+ rice, maize, sunflower,
pigeon pea, pumpkin,
vegetables
+ maize, cassava, sweet
potato, banana, watermelon,
vegetables
District
Mvomero
Kilombero
Estate size (hectares)
6000 (5400 in use)
5000
Number of outgrowers
3500
1200 (scaling up to 4500 in
2013)
Current ownership
structure
Private Domestic: Super
Group of Companies
Public-Private International
(Agrica RUBADA, Norfund,
Swefund, Capricorn)
Past ownership structure
Government parastatal
Joint venture between the
Governments of Tanzania and
North Korea.
OG scheme initiated
1996/97
2011/12
OG scheme «logics»
• Economic logic: help smallholders overcome
constraints related to imperfect markets; share
risks associated with production and marketing
• Political logic: help investors avoid political risks
associated with large-scale investments in land
(«land grabbing»)
• Development/social logic: improve smallholder
incomes and well-being through provision of jobs,
training, inputs and services
Economic risks facing participants in
the two OG schemes
• Production risks: mainly climatic, also related to
pest and disease pressure
• Marketing risks: differences between rice and
sugarcane in an OG context (monopsony versus
spot market)
• Risks facing investors: investment-specific (e.g.
roads); unclear policy signals, high taxation;
knowledge and technology-related risks
• For smallholders: risks related to competition
over water and land-use at community and
landscape levels
Climate context
• Morogoro is a relatively «high-potential» region
• High levels of immigration of farmers and
livestock keepers from other regions
• Two rainy seasons in the North, one in the South
• Periodic flooding and droughts
• Rainfall records for one site show increasing
«Long» rains and decreasing «short rains»
• High intra-annual variability
Managing production risks: Smallholders
Agricultural diversification
- Crop and varietal diversity (early maturing rice;
drought tolerant cane)
- Spatial diversity of fields
Adaptive on-farm management
- Adjust crops planted and planting dates to onset of
rains
- Adjust planting methods to weather conditions
(broadcasting versus transplanting, rice)
Diversified and adaptive production strategies
lower overall investment risks
Estate risk management strategies
• Ensure constant throughput to factory/mill
• Irrigation (pivot and piped) from rivers (with high
seasonal variability)
• Mechanised production using large equipment and
inputs
• Monoculture (e.g. SARO5 rice)
• Share production risks with smallholder farmers
• Estate expansion
• Lobby government on policy and investment issues
Large, fixed investments + high inputs/costs + specialisation;
unpredictable policy envirnonment + long planning
horizons
High investment risks
Conclusions
OG schemes enhance smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacities when
they
i)
Enhance the flexibility, diversity and stability of agricultural
incomes
ii) Do not augment the marketing and production risks that farmers
face
iii) Enhance access to locally relevant agricultural technologies and
skills and promote experiential learning
iii) Invest in infrastructure that is robust to climate variability and
change
iv) Contractual relationships are transparent, fair, and reliable,
v) Entry costs enable poorer households to participate, and
vi) Access to land and water can be negotiated in a fair and
transparent manner within and beyond the schemes.
This will require….
1) Better coordination between public, private
and donor initiatives
2) A stronger role for the state in setting
conducive frame conditions for agricultural
investment that fosters long-term, sustainable
partnerships between smallholder farmers and
large estates
Next steps
• Potential for follow up case study of Mtibwa within
CICERO’s research under the Global Framework for
Climate Services Project in Tanzania linking:
• Mtibwa daily rainfall data series (1952-2012)
• Qualitative data on sensitivity of sugarcane and rice
production to periods of high rainfall and dry spells
• Analysis of historical and current rainfall variability and
implications for farmer livelihoods
• Develop future scenarios (possible downscaling) and
assess implications for sugarcane and rice research
(e.g. varietal breeding), irrigation and other long-term
agricultural investments that can help farmers to adapt
Asante Sana!