Business Advisory Council
Five Year Forecast
General Fund
FY16- FY20
11/3/15
1
Real Estate Tax
79.15%
Personal Prop. Tax
0.00%
State
19.36%
Federal
0.00%
Other
1.49%
Bond Issue
Proceeds
Real Estate Tax
Operating
Budget
Capital
Budget
Bond
Fund
86.26% Wages & benefits
7.83% Services
5.91% Other (Supplies, Equipment)
Construction &
Facilities maintenance
Bond principal &
Interest repayments
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1
Revenue History by Source
5%
1989
18%
25%
3%
1996
9%
61%
70%
9%
E2020
1%
0%
19%
0%
18%
2%
2015
79%
81%
Real Estate
Personal Prop.
State
Other
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Historical Composition of Property Taxes
Commercial
50%
1989
Commercial
40%
1996
50%
Residential
Commercial
27%
E2020
Commercial
27%
73%
Residential
2014
60%
Residential
73%
Residential
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2

Ohio HB 920 – Passed in 1976
•
Limits revenue from voted millage to the amount
that an initial levy was to yield on all real property
•
As Property values increase/decrease, voter
millage rates are reduced/raised (Schools
continue to collect what was originally approved)
Frozen School Income + Inflation = Levies
5
Operating Levy History (1982 – 2015)
10.0
8.9
9.0
7.9
7.9
7.9
7.6
8.0
7.7
6.8
7.0
6.4 6.2
6.0
5.0
4.7
4.5
5.0
4.3
4.0 3.5
3.0
1.7
2.0
2.0
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.0
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Voted Levy
Total Full Voted – 75.20
Effective
Total Effective – 43.67
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3
History of Levy Millages (1982 – 2015)
90.00
85.00
80.00
75.00
70.00
65.00
60.00
55.00
50.00
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Full Voted
Effective
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Anticipated Year-End
Cash Balances
Revenues
Expenditures
Beginning Cash
Balance
Ending
Unencumb.
Cash Balance
Encumbrances
Ending
Unencumb. Cash
Balance
FY16
185,521,924
181,698,552
FY17
188,755,033
196,392,336
FY18
192,250,961
205,696,218
FY19
195,795,688
209,580,752
FY20
199,244,973
220,056,747
58,577,996
62,401,368
54,764,065
41,318,808
27,533,744
62,401,368
54,764,065
41,318,808
27,533,744
6,721,970
(2,807,139)
(3,035,168)
(3,179,378)
(3,239,588)
(3,401,966)
59,594,229
51,728,897
38,139,430
24,294,156
3,320,004
Data from Five-Year Forecast
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4
General Fund Revenues
Est16 - $185,521,924
Total State
17.91%
Interest
0.18%
Real Estate
Taxes
81.04%
Other
Revenues
1.08%
Real Estate Taxes
State Tax Reimb
Total Local
82.09%
State Tax
Reimb
State
9.94%
Foundation
9.77%
State Foundation Other Revenues Interest
9
-
Summary Points
REVENUE:
REAL ESTATE
-No changes in Real Estate projections from May updated
-New Construction increases; 2% growth FY16, 2% FY17-20
- Second year receiving $1.5 M City of Dublin Cooperative Agreement
TANGIBLE PERSONAL PROPERTY TAX (TPP) REPLACEMENT
-Current biennium budget provides $837,584 for FY16 and $0 in FY17
-Possible S.B. 208 could restore $643,000 in FY17
-For years beyond FY17 should not be a factor in future forecasts
STATE FOUNDATION
-Current biennium budget provides estimated 7.5% increase in FY16 and FY17
-Modest 1.0% increases for FY18-FY20
INTEREST
-Fed rate expected to stay at 0-0.25% until late-2015 or early 2016
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5
General Fund Expenditures
Est16 - $181,698,552
Materials
3.01%
Capital Outlay
0.98%
Other Expend.
1.92%
Purch. Services
8.00%
Wages
64.39%
Fringe Benefits
21.70%
Wages
Fringe Benefits
Purch. Services
Materials
Capital Outlay
Other Expend.
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-
Summary Points
EXPENDITURES:
WAGES
-Negotiated agreements approved in Spring of 2014 in place for FY15-17
-Future staffing plan – updated for anticipated growth in student population
-Retirements savings have been included and are anticipated to slow in the near future
-Third year of contracting of sub personnel services to the ESC – COG
-Admin Interns paid through ESC included (vs. wages)
BENEFITS
-Insurance includes 10% decrease in FY16 (helped by new co-insurance and reduced claims) and 9% increases in
FY17-20 based on historical patterns
-Retirement – no anticipated employer increases
PURCHASED SERVICES & MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES
- Inflationary increases of 3.0% are assumed
CAPITAL OUTLAY / EQUIPMENT
-$1.5 M City of Dublin Cooperative Agreement monies utilized to make technology upgrades
-$6.0 M included in FY17 & FY18 for facility needs (Maintenance, Equipment, Technology, Buses) for depleted 2012
Bond proceeds.
12
6
-
Uncertainties
Revenues:
- Economy (another recession?)
- State Foundation beyond FY16-17, Legislative actions
- New Construction (Real Estate)
- Interest Rates
Expenditures:
-Wages/Salaries
-Enrollment growth challenges requiring additional staffing (including special education)
-Turnover from retirements anticipated to decrease
- Fringe Benefits
-Health Insurance
-Healthcare Reform (Cadillac Tax)
-Purchase Services
-College Credit Plus
- Capital Outlay
- Funds for continuing maintenance, upkeep, and replacement of District facilities and equipment in
light of the depleted 2012 bond issue.
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State Funding
State Foundation
Homestead/Rollback
TPP Reimbursement
Special Ed. Catastrophic
Casino Revenue Payment
Total state funding
8.28%
7.51%
2.29%
0.88%
0.40%
19.36%
Dublin - Guaranteed district since 1998
Dublin actual FY15 - State Foundation/Pupil ≈ $1,026
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7
Business Advisory Council
Five Year Forecast
General Fund
FY16 – FY20
Questions
Answers
15
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