DUBLIN CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT
10/26/2015
FIVE YEAR FORECAST FOR THE FISCAL YEARS ENDING JUNE 30,
Original
ACTUAL
7/10 - 6/11
ACTUAL
7/11 - 6/12
ACTUAL
7/12 - 6/13
ACTUAL
7/13 - 6/14
ACTUAL
7/14 - 6/15
ESTIMATED
7/15 - 6/16
ESTIMATED
7/16 - 6/17
ESTIMATED
7/17 - 6/18
ESTIMATED
7/18 - 6/19
ESTIMATED
7/19 - 6/20
OPERATING REVENUES:
Real Estate Tax
Tangible Tax
Interest
Other Local
Federal
State Taxes Reim.
State
$124,286,218
747,838
565,218
1,291,683
1,240,380
21,804,689
12,755,743
$126,677,030
36,950
438,701
1,337,931
690,146
18,895,750
13,325,468
$133,678,702
7,653
267,684
1,458,504
104,948
16,850,849
13,428,352
$144,698,952
10,443
171,488
1,379,821
0
18,156,207
14,750,497
$148,635,768
446
282,692
1,484,162
0
18,403,144
17,950,153
$150,345,346
0
332,689
1,255,280
0
15,109,354
18,117,487
$153,170,948
0
395,450
1,272,866
0
14,483,220
19,382,549
$156,195,093
0
441,048
1,290,804
0
14,710,142
19,563,874
$159,261,736
0
488,144
1,309,100
0
14,939,695
19,747,013
$162,273,866
0
496,746
1,327,762
0
15,164,616
19,931,983
Total Operating Receipts
$162,691,769
$161,401,976
$165,796,692
$179,167,408
$186,756,365
$185,160,156
$188,705,033
$192,200,961
$195,745,688
$199,194,973
OPERATING EXPENDITURES:
Wages
Fringe Benefits
Purchased Services
Materials
Capital Outlay
Other Expenditures
$111,108,944
36,158,049
8,083,861
4,137,385
383,373
2,602,918
$110,831,340
38,522,008
7,437,397
3,672,855
216,623
2,363,925
$108,586,841
39,019,413
11,401,014
3,620,885
233,883
2,824,841
$109,496,900
40,362,690
12,170,261
4,985,676
338,738
2,807,867
$112,021,200
40,294,738
13,828,455
4,661,465
2,164,907
2,800,715
$116,989,157
39,428,626
14,540,341
5,476,643
1,772,220
2,898,740
$122,421,740
41,900,588
15,153,373
5,575,496
7,780,387
2,985,702
$127,995,710
44,824,563
15,759,508
5,677,315
7,788,799
3,075,273
$133,790,474
47,965,167
16,502,879
5,782,188
1,797,463
3,167,531
$139,827,293
51,342,999
17,352,254
5,890,207
1,806,387
3,262,557
Total Operating Exp.
$162,474,531
$163,044,148
$165,686,877
$170,162,132
$175,771,480
$181,105,727
$195,817,286
$205,121,168
$209,005,702
$219,481,697
$109,815
$9,005,276
$10,984,885
$4,054,429
($7,112,253)
($12,920,207)
($13,260,014)
($20,286,724)
Revenue Over/(Under)
Expenditures
OTHER SOURCES (USES):
Transfers/Advances In
Transfers/Advances (Out)
$217,238
($1,642,172)
11,420
(72,921)
268
(538,444)
52,519
(566,240)
774,078
(646,544)
1,024,490
(805,692)
361,768
(592,825)
50,000
(575,050)
50,000
(575,050)
50,000
(575,050)
50,000
(575,050)
Total Other Sources (Uses)
($61,501)
($538,176)
($513,721)
$127,534
$218,798
($231,057)
($525,050)
($525,050)
($525,050)
($525,050)
Total Receipts Over/
(Under) Expenditures
$155,737
($2,180,348)
($403,906)
$9,132,810
$11,203,683
$3,823,372
($7,637,303)
($13,445,257)
($13,785,064)
($20,811,774)
Beginning Cash Balance
$40,670,020
$40,825,757
$38,645,409
$38,241,503
$47,374,313
$58,577,996
$62,401,368
$54,764,065
$41,318,808
$27,533,744
Ending Cash Balance
$40,825,757
$38,645,409
$38,241,503
$47,374,313
$58,577,996
$62,401,368
$54,764,065
$41,318,808
$27,533,744
$6,721,970
Encumbrances
($1,535,296)
($1,436,940)
($2,625,344)
($2,966,359)
($2,635,673)
($2,807,139)
($3,035,168)
($3,179,378)
($3,239,588)
($3,401,966)
Ending Unreserved Balance
$39,290,461
$37,208,469
$35,616,159
$44,407,954
$55,942,323
$59,594,229
$51,728,897
$38,139,430
$24,294,156
$3,320,004
Enrollment
14,223
14,461
14,771
The Notes To The Five Year Forecast Are An Integral Part Of This Presentation.
14,886
15,165
15,579
15,764
15,956
16,235
16,454
NOTES TO THE FIVE YEAR FORECAST
GENERAL FUND ONLY
October 26, 2015
REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS
REAL ESTATE VALUE ASSUMPTIONS
Property values are established each year by the County Auditor based on new construction and complete or updated
values. A reappraisal update of district property values occurred for 2014 values collected in calendar year 2015. The
reappraisal provided modest increases. These have been factored into the projection for district property values along
with their corresponding tax reduction factors affecting outside voted millage. The Dublin School District has values
in Delaware, Franklin and Union Counties. The district's next reappraisal will occur in calendar year 2016 with collections
in 2017 for Union County and in calendar year 2017 with collections in 2018 for Delaware and Franklin Counties.
For collection year 2016 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 2.0% to 2.0 % (no change);
Comm./Ind. 2.0% to 2.0% (no change).
For collection year 2017 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 2.0% to 2.0 % (no change);
Comm./Ind. 2.0% to 2.0% (no change)
For collection year 2018 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 2.0% to 2.0 % (no change);
Comm./Ind. 2.0% to 2.0% (no change) Total AV is estimated to increase $60.78 M for new construction and $84.46 M
due to reappraisal increases resulting in Class I rates of 46.80 mills and Class II rates of 54.57 mills.
For collection year 2019 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 2.0% to 2.0 % (no change);
Comm./Ind. 2.0% to 2.0% (no change)
For collection year 2020 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 2.0% to 2.0 % (no change);
Comm./Ind. 2.0% to 2.0% (no change)
ESTIMATED ASSESSED VALUE BY COLLECTION YEARS (IN MILLIONS)
Classification
Res./Ag.
Comm./Ind.
P.U... Pers.
Total
Est. 2016
$2,209
765
62
Est. 2017
$2,259
780
62
Est. 2018
$2,365
819
62
Est. 2019
$2,412
836
62
Est. 2020
$2,467
853
62
$3,036
$3,101
$3,246
$3,310
$3,382
NEW TAX LEVIES
New levies are estimated to be collected at 96% of the annual amount. This allows for 2.25% delinquency and 1.75%
A & T fees. Also, 52% of new Res./Ag. is expected to be collected in March tax settlements and 48% collected in
August tax settlements. Public Utility taxes are estimated at 50% in March and August. These timing estimates are
very important to estimating when new levy or new construction tax dollars will be available to the district.
ESTIMATED REAL ESTATE TAX
Source
New Base
New Construction
Delinquent
Reappraisal
Dublin City Cooperative Agreement
FY16
$145,174,685
$1,895,225
$2,868,005
$107,431
$1,500,000
Win Win Deduction
($1,200,000)
Total
$150,345,346
FY17
$147,177,342
$2,697,937
$2,982,725
$12,944
$1,500,000
($1,200,000)
$153,170,948
Page 1
FY18
$149,888,223
$2,716,488
$3,102,034
$188,348
$1,500,000
($1,200,000)
$156,195,093
FY19
$152,793,059
$2,779,730
$3,226,116
$162,831
$1,500,000
($1,200,000)
$159,261,736
FY20
$155,735,620
$2,868,946
$3,355,160
$14,140
$1,500,000
($1,200,000)
$162,273,866
INTEREST INCOME
Interest income will increase and decrease as the cash position of the General Fund fluctuates over the forecast period.
The Federal reserve's overnight rate is 0.00 - 0.25% and is expected to stay at those levels until later half of 2015. We have
used approximately 0.18% of general fund revenues as a guide for interest income in FY15. Funds are predominately invested
in STAR Ohio, STAR Plus, Brokered CD's, Highly Rated Commercial Paper, Agencies, T-bills, T-notes, and interest bearing
sweep accounts. Security of the funds collected by the district is the top priority of the treasurer's office.
OTHER LOCAL REVENUES
These amounts are estimated based on past trends. Our tuition rate will increase along with the percentage of
total General Fund income that comes from local property taxes. Rentals, pay to participate, & student
fees are generally stable. Slight increases in building rental rates are planned at this time and could be increased
over the five year forecast. Other fees are expected to remain stable.
Source
Pay To Participate
Tuition
Student Fees
Building Rentals
Donations
Other
Total
FY16
$248,000
440,231
68,000
439,049
0
60,000
FY17
$248,000
449,036
68,000
447,830
0
60,000
FY18
$248,000
458,017
68,000
456,787
0
60,000
FY19
$248,000
467,177
68,000
465,923
0
60,000
FY20
$248,000
476,521
68,000
475,241
0
60,000
$1,255,280
$1,272,866
$1,290,804
$1,309,100
$1,327,762
STATE TAXES REIMBURSEMENT
a) ROLLBACK & HOMESTEAD REIMBURSEMENT
These funds are reimbursements from the State for tax credits given owner occupied residences equaling 12.5% of the
gross property taxes charged residential taxpayers and up to 10% for commercial and industrial taxpayers. These
amounts will grow along with new levies and new construction in Res./Ag/ and Comm. /Ind. property classifications.
HB 66 has eliminated the 10 percent rollback on Class II property (commercial and industrial), and HB119 has
expanded the homestead exemption for seniors for the first $25,000 of value.
Source
Base R & H
New Construction
Total
FY16
$14,104,894
$166,876
FY17
$14,271,770
$211,450
FY18
$14,483,220
$226,922
FY19
$14,710,142
$229,553
FY20
$14,939,695
$224,921
$14,271,770
$14,483,220
$14,710,142
$14,939,695
$15,164,616
b) TANGIBLE PERSONAL PROPERTY REIMBURSEMENTS
These amounts reflect the state's reimbursement of tangible personal property tax that is being phased out in HB66.
The current state biennium budget has increased the rate of the phase out of the TPP "hold harmless" payments so
that the District will be completely phased out of the "hold harmless" payments in FY17 and beyond.
Source
TPP Reimbursement
FY16
837,584
Total
FY17
$837,584
Page 2
FY18
FY19
FY20
0
0
0
0
$0
$0
$0
$0
SUMMARY OF STATE TAXES REIMBURSEMENT
Source
Rollback and Homestead
TPP Reimbursement
FY16
$14,271,770
837,584
FY17
$14,483,220
0
FY18
$14,710,142
0
FY19
$14,939,695
0
FY20
$15,164,616
0
$15,109,354
$14,483,220
$14,710,142
$14,939,695
$15,164,616
STATE REVENUE ESTIMATES
The current biennium budget for FY16 & FY17 has anticipated increases in basic aid for Dublin of 7.5%
in FY16 compared to FY15 and an additional 7.5% compared to FY16. We have assumed modest increases
beyond the current biennium budget of 1.0% per year. With the best information available, we have developed
these estimates for FY16 and beyond.
A) State Foundation Funding Revenue
Source
State Foundation Formula
Casino Revenue
Special Ed Catastrophic
Total
FY16
16,867,487
750,000
500,000
FY17
18,132,549
750,000
500,000
FY18
18,313,874
750,000
500,000
FY19
18,497,013
750,000
500,000
FY20
18,681,983
750,000
500,000
$18,117,487
$19,382,549
$19,563,874
$19,747,013
$19,931,983
RETURN OF ADVANCES & REFUND OF PRIOR YEAR EXPENDITURES
These are non-operating revenues which are the repayment of short term loans to other funds over the previous fiscal
year and reimbursements for expenses received for a previous fiscal year in the current fiscal year. All advances over year
end are planned to be returned in the succeeding fiscal year.
Source
Advance Returns
R.O.P.Y.E. (*)
Total
FY16
$328,000
33,768
FY17
$50,000
0
FY18
$50,000
0
FY19
$50,000
0
FY20
$50,000
0
$361,768
$50,000
$50,000
$50,000
$50,000
(*) refund of prior years expenditures.
SHORT TERM BORROWING
No short term or long term General Fund borrowing is anticipated at this time.
Page 3
EXPENDITURE ASSUMPTIONS
WAGES
The model reflects pay increases approved by the Board of Education for certificated, administrative and technical staff of
2.00% effective August 1, 2014; 2.00% effective August 1, 2015; 2.00% effective August 1, 2016 and estimates for historic/
economic wage increases each year through FY 2020. Increases and step & training increases are projected to grow as
additional staff members are added for growth in staff.
Classified employees, covered by the DSA agreement, approved increases of 2.0% for contract periods effective
July 1, 2014; 2.00% effective July, 1, 2015; 2.00% effective July 1, 2016 and estimates have been included through FY 2020.
Estimates in staff growth have been included in the estimates based on the District's staffing plan that has been included.
Source
Base Wages
Increases
Steps & Training
Growth
Staff Reductions
Total
FY16
$111,821,200
2,236,424
2,124,603
806,930
0
FY17
$116,989,157
2,339,783
2,222,794
870,006
0
FY18
$122,421,740
2,448,435
2,326,013
799,522
0
FY19
$127,995,710
2,559,914
2,431,918
802,932
0
FY20
$133,790,474
2,675,809
2,542,019
818,991
0
$116,989,157
$122,421,740
$127,995,710
$133,790,474
$139,827,293
FY16
$15,654,968
313,099
297,444
112,970
871,061
297,855
268,332
FY17
$16,378,482
327,570
311,191
121,801
914,614
312,748
0
FY18
$17,139,044
342,781
325,642
111,933
960,345
328,385
0
FY19
$17,919,399
358,388
340,469
112,410
1,008,362
344,804
0
FY20
$18,730,666
374,613
355,883
114,659
1,058,780
362,044
0
$17,815,729
$18,366,406
$19,208,130
$20,083,832
$20,996,645
FRINGE BENEFIT ESTIMATES
A) STRS/SERS will increase by 14% of wages paid.
Source
Base Wages
Increases
Steps & Training
Growth
STRS/SERS Pickup
SERS Surcharge
SERS Arrearage
Total
Page 4
B) A reduction of 10.0% for FY16 and 9.0% increases per year have been included in FY17 through FY20 estimates , for medical,
dental and vision insurances which is the best data available at this time.
Source
Base Costs
Growth
Inflation
Total
FY16
$21,435,755
64,554
($2,143,576)
FY17
$19,356,733
69,600
1,742,106
FY18
$21,168,439
63,962
1,905,160
FY19
$23,137,561
64,235
2,082,380
FY20
$25,284,176
65,519
2,275,576
$19,356,733
$21,168,439
$23,137,561
$25,284,176
$27,625,271
WORKERS COMPENSATION
C) Workers compensation is expected to increase by 4.5% per year reflecting growth in wages. We will continue
to explore options to our current group rating plan.
Source
Base Costs
Growth
Total
FY16
$487,869
4,115
$491,984
FY17
$514,123
4,437
$518,560
FY18
$541,895
4,078
$545,973
FY19
$570,542
4,095
$574,637
FY20
$600,496
4,177
$604,673
D) Medicare will continue to increase along with salaries. Contributions are 1.45% for all new employees to the district
since April 1, 1986.
Source
Base Costs
Growth
Total
FY16
$1,552,480
11,700
$1,564,180
FY17
$1,634,568
12,615
$1,647,183
FY18
$1,721,306
11,593
$1,732,899
FY19
$1,810,879
11,643
$1,822,522
FY20
$1,904,535
11,875
$1,916,410
FY16
$17,815,729
19,356,733
491,984
1,564,180
200,000
FY17
$18,366,406
21,168,439
518,560
1,647,183
200,000
FY18
$19,208,130
23,137,561
545,973
1,732,899
200,000
FY19
$20,083,832
25,284,176
574,637
1,822,522
200,000
FY20
$20,996,645
27,625,271
604,673
1,916,410
200,000
$39,428,626
$41,900,588
$44,824,563
$47,965,167
$51,342,999
SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFITS
Source
STRS/SERS
Insurance's
Workers Comp
Medicare
Other
Total
Page 5
PURCHASED SERVICES
The district has negotiated electric and gas service contracts and implemented an aggressive energy conservation
program to help hold down energy cost increases. The district has continued to contract with the ESC-COG for sub
personnel services in FY 16. In FY13, additional maintenance projects were identified that were need over the next
several years so additional monies were allocated in for FY14 - FY20. An overall inflation rate of 4% is being estimated
for this category of expense.
Source
Base Services
Technology License & Maint Agreements
Maintenance
Total
FY16
$13,956,593
183,748
400,000
FY17
$14,721,955
31,418
400,000
FY18
$15,359,508
0
400,000
FY19
$15,989,888
112,991
400,000
FY20
$16,762,994
189,260
400,000
$14,540,341
$15,153,373
$15,759,508
$16,502,879
$17,352,254
MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES
Additional maintenance projects were identified over the next couple years so additional monies were
allocated in FY15-FY20. An overall inflation rate of 3% is being estimated for this category of expense.
Source
Supplies
GCOS
Maintenance
Total
FY16
$3,295,101
1,981,542
200,000
FY17
$3,393,954
1,981,542
200,000
FY18
$3,495,773
1,981,542
200,000
FY19
$3,600,646
1,981,542
200,000
FY20
$3,708,665
1,981,542
200,000
$5,476,643
$5,575,496
$5,677,315
$5,782,188
$5,890,207
CAPITAL OUTLAY / EQUIPMENT
The District entered into a cooperative agreement with the City of Dublin in FY14, and as part of the agreement the City
of Dublin is planned to make $1.5 million payments to the District each year over the next 30 years. For the next several
years, the District plans to use the funds for technology equipment and infrastructure upgrades. An overall inflation rate
of 3% is being estimated for all other expenses in this category.
In November 2012, the District passed a $15.87 million bond issue to purchase replacement buses and equipment, as well as,
expand, maintain, and repair district facilities over the proceeding 3-4 years. As the bond money has depleted on the established
projects, facility needs are aniticipated in FY16 & FY17 paid from the general fund while other funding possibilites are discussed
for continued future needs.
Source
Capital Outlay
Maintenance/Buses/Technology
Dublin City Coop Agreement
Total
FY16
$272,220
0
1,500,000
FY17
$280,387
6,000,000
1,500,000
FY18
$288,799
6,000,000
1,500,000
FY19
$297,463
0
1,500,000
FY20
$306,387
0
1,500,000
$1,772,220
$7,780,387
$7,788,799
$1,797,463
$1,806,387
Page 6
OTHER EXPENSES
The category of Other Expenses consist mostly of Auditor & Treasurer fees and County Educational Service Center
deductions for participation in the SB140 City/County agreement. Auditor and treasurer fees will increase sharply
anytime a new operating levy is collected. Also new construction will cause A & T fees to increase as more
tax dollars are collected.
Source
Other expenses
Total
FY16
$2,898,740
FY17
$2,985,702
FY18
$3,075,273
FY19
$3,167,531
FY20
$3,262,557
$2,898,740
$2,985,702
$3,075,273
$3,167,531
$3,262,557
NON OPERATING EXPENSES
This account group covers fund to fund transfers and end of year short term loans from the General Fund to other
funds until they have received reimbursements and can repay the General Fund. Summer school costs have increased
due to additional state mandated remediation of students struggling with achievement tests and because the Board
of Education has departed from the policy of making summer school operate at a breakeven with fees collected.
Source
Athletic Transfer
Summer School
Sinking Fund
Refund of Prior Year Receipt
Advances
Total
FY16
$84,050
65,000
380,000
13,775
50,000
$592,825
FY17
$80,050
65,000
380,000
0
50,000
$575,050
FY18
$80,050
65,000
380,000
0
50,000
$575,050
FY19
$80,050
65,000
380,000
0
50,000
$575,050
TAX ANTICIPATION NOTE REPAYMENT
No General Fund borrowing is planned in this five year projection.
ENCUMBRANCES
These are outstanding purchase orders that have not been approved for payment as goods were not received in the
fiscal year in which they were ordered. This is estimated to run about 1.55% of expenditures for the foreseeable future.
ENDING UNENCUMBERED CASH BALANCE
This amount must not go below $-0- or the district General Fund will violate all Ohio Budgetary Laws. Any multi-year
contract which is knowingly signed which will cause a negative unencumbered cash balance is a violation of 5705.412,
ORC, punishable by personal liability of $10,000.
Page 7
FY20
$80,050
65,000
380,000
0
50,000
$575,050