Assessment, Adaptation and
Co-Production of Knowledge
MountainClim 2014
Kathy Jacobs
Dept of Soil, Water and Env. Sci.
Institute of the Environment
Center for Climate Adaptation
Science and Solutions
University of Arizona
Assessments
are a critical
foundation
for climate
policy and
for
adaptation
efforts
Assessments and Adaptation
Adaptation is iterative and involves ongoing
evaluation of risk,
identification of current
and anticipated impacts
and vulnerabilities, and
responses to changes in
fundamental scientific
understanding and
associated uncertainties.
3
Assessments and Adaptation
“Proactive”
Forests and Carbon Sequestration, NCA3
adaptation
means anticipating and
preparing for future
conditions rather than
responding after impacts
have already occurred…
It requires rigorous
observations of changes
as they occur and
monitoring and
evaluation of a range of
conditions over time. It
also requires projections
of future conditions.
Assessments and Adaptation
Adaptive management processes also depend on
ongoing assessments of changing conditions as
well as evaluations of whether adaptation and
mitigation options are having their desired effect.
Location of Potential
Forestry Biomass
Resources - NCA3
5
Assessments and Adaptation
Assessment is therefore a critical component of
successful adaptation, and can contribute to a
variety of climate response strategies as well as
questions about vulnerability, impacts, scale, equity,
timing, and priorities for scientific investigation.
6
National Climate Assessment:
GCRA (1990), Section 106
…not less frequently than every 4 years, the (National
Science and Technology) Council… shall prepare… an
assessment which –
• integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the
Program (USGCRP) and discusses the scientific
uncertainties associated with such findings;
• analyzes the effects of global change on the natural
environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land
and water resources, transportation, human health and
welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and
• analyzes current trends in global change, both humaninduced and natural, and projects major trends for the
subsequent 25 to 100 years.
Previous National Climate Assessments
Climate Change Impacts on
the United States (2000)
Climate Change Impacts in the
United States (2009)
http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/
The Third National Climate Assessment
Goal
• Enhance the ability of the United States
to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to
changes in the global environment.
Vision
• Advance an inclusive, broad-based, and
sustained process for assessing and
communicating scientific knowledge of
the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities
associated with a changing global climate
in support of decision-making across the
United States.
Goals for the NCA3
•
A sustained process for informing an
integrated research program
•
A scientific foundation for decision
support, including scenarios and
other tools at multiple scales
•
Evaluation of the implications of
alternative adaptation and
mitigation options
•
Community building within regions
and sectors that support adaptation
and resilience
Desired Outcomes of the NCA3
• Ongoing, relevant, highly credible
analysis of scientific understanding of
climate change impacts, risk, and
vulnerability
• Enhanced timely access to Assessmentrelated data from multiple sources
useful for decision making
• A National System of Indicators of
change and the capacity to respond…
• A Sustained Assessment Process?
May 6, 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
Products:
• Full report (digital) (840 p)
–
–
–
–
Interactive, web-based
Includes traceable accounts
Linked to data and sources
Searchable
• Website
– Full report & Highlights in HTML
– Graphics (high-resolution files, interactive figures)
– Supporting information
• Highlights (148 p)
(10K printed & pdf)
12
Sample pages
from Highlights
Contributions of the NCA3 to Adaptation and
Coproduction of Knowledge
• Joint learning between
scientists and stakeholders
• Decision support focus
• Explicit support for “tacit”
(real-world) as opposed to
only “expert” (academic)
knowledge
• Focus on relationship
building, networks and
science translation
Contributions of the NCA3 to Adaptation and
Coproduction of Knowledge
• Risk-based framing focused on the “key” issues
identified by stakeholders and scientists
• NCADAC, authors and staff as “boundary spanners”
• Engagement and participation strategy – engaging
stakeholders in the creation and use of NCA products
as well as the communications components from the
beginning
Adaptation is
Iterative Risk
Management…
And that requires
INFORMATION!
The prospect that the climate system,
ecosystems, or human systems
may experience significant transitions to
new states renders our previous
experience an incomplete guide for future
adaptation… “
National Research Council,
America’s Climate Choices
Adapting to the Impacts of
Climate Change Panel
17
Moving beyond the
envelope of our
experience:
Informing Decisions:
How can we adapt to
things we have not yet
experienced?
Mean Sea Level Trend – Charleston, South Carolina
3.15 mm/yr
+/- 0.25 mm/yr
Current and simulated views
of sea level rise in
Charleston, South Carolina.
Courtesy of Digital Coast, NOAA
Coastal Services Center
Thanks to Susi Moser
Assessments: What’s New about Process?
• Inclusive, broader expertise
– Over 240 authors
– 60 member federal advisory committee
• Expanded public engagement
• NCAnet: for multiple resources see
http://ncanet.usgcrp.gov/partners/resources
• Focus on a sustained process
– Supporting quadrennial reports
– Decision support
NCA3 Approach
• Large number of authors and advisory committee
members
• Wide diversity of perspectives and the potential for
reaching into multiple existing ‘knowledge networks’
• Building the concept of a sustained assessment run
as a “learning organization”
Inclusiveness and Transparency
• Methodology workshops to build
capacity and encourage mutual
learning – building a joint
knowledge base and guidance
documents for participants
• Request for Information via
Federal Register Notice
• Extensive interdisciplinary
reviews
• Strong staff support – meeting
facilitation; research, editing,
sources, and graphics; reinforcing
guidance and deadlines
Engagement Strategy
Relationships criteria
– What sustained relationships developed among
various stakeholder groups (including between
network partners and the broader community)?
– What sustained relationships developed between
NCA and network partners?
– Does the assessment properly characterize and
manage a multitude of information sources so
that private sector, public sector and NGO
interests can provide credible information and
access data that they find useful?
NCA3
Lessons:
Assessments
and
adaptation
are more
about
people and
processes
than
products!
Outline for Third NCA Report
• Climate Change and the American
People
• Overview and Report Findings
• Our Changing Climate
• 6 Sectors & 7 Sectoral Cross-cuts
• 8 Regions & 2 Biogeographical Crosscuts
• Responses
– Decision Support
– Mitigation
Appendices
– Adaptation
Process and Engagement
• Research Needs
Information Quality
Extended Climate Science
• The Sustained Assessment Process
Frequently Asked Questions
Scenarios and Models
Topics for Future Consideration
25
Sectors
Water Resources
Energy Supply and Use
Transportation
Agriculture
Forestry
Ecosystems and
Biodiversity
• Human Health
•
•
•
•
•
•
Regions and Biogeographical Cross-Cuts
Oceans and
Marine
Resources
Coasts,
Development,
and Ecosystems
NCA Risk & Decision-Support Framing
• Importance of underlying vulnerabilities
• Inter-sectoral links and cascading effects
– Water, Energy & Land
– Biogeochemical Cycles Intersecting systems
– Tribal Resources
can either increase
– Land Use & Land Cover resilience or result in
– Rural Communities
catastrophic failure – Urban Systems, Infrastructure and Vulnerability
cascading effects
– Coastal Zones, Development and Ecosystems
through systems
– Oceans and Marine Resources – new topic for NCA
New Scenarios
www.scenarios.globalchange.gov
• Regional climatologies and projections
• Global Sea level rise scenarios
Figure source: Josh Willis,
NASA Jet Propulsion
Laboratory
Change is Apparent Across the Nation
Change based on
1901-1960 average
Impacts to crops and livestock
Forestry Adaptation Strategies – NCA3
• Altering tree planting and harvesting
strategies
• Factoring in genetic variation within species
• Managing for reduced stand densities
• Reducing other stressors including poor air
quality and drought stress
• Developing regional networks to mitigate
impacts on ecosystem goods and services
Sustained Assessment
Special Report Recommendations
• Establish a coordination office with strong
leadership
• Establish enduring collaborative
partnerships with civil society
• Build the scientific foundation for
managing the risks of climate change
• Provide infrastructure to support the
sustained assessment
• Diversify the resource base and set
priorities
NCAnet: Partners in Assessment
120+ partner organizations
• Professional societies
• Academic institutions
and consortia
• Non-governmental
organizations
• Local and state
government
departments
• Private sector
Online at
http://ncanet.usgcrp.gov
• List of partners’ NCArelated activities
• Monthly conversations
among existing partners
• Toolkit of materials
related to USGCRP and
the NCA
AGI, AGU, AMS, APA, APHA, APHL,
ASCE, ASA, ANREP, ASTHO, CSTE, CSSA,
ESA, GSA, NACCHO, NAE, SSA
NCAnet: 120+ Partners
Faith
Greater Wash’n
Interfaith Power &
Light
Professional
Societies
IAPMO
Climate Central, Climate
Communication, Climate Nexus,
Blue Frontier Campaign, Citizens Habitat Seven, Internews EJN,
Island Press, Resource Media
Climate Lobby, Will Steger
Foundation
Defenders of Wildlife,
NRDC, NWF, Sierra Club,
UCS, WWF, WRI
ACUPCC, Second Nature
Issue-Based
NGOs
(Enviro, Health,
etc.)
AMWA, AWWA, WUCA
ACCO, ASAP, CCAP, C2ES,
Keystone Ctr, Next
Generation
BlueGreen Alliance, Labor
Network for Sust
BCC Planning, Drawing
Conclusions LLC, Kleinschmidt
Associates
Business &
Industry
Ducks Unlimited
EcoAmerica
Dan River Basin Assn, MA Climate
Adaptation Int’l, CalOST, CBI, COL, Action Net, Sust NW, Sust Rangelands
EcoAdapt, ICLEI USA
Roundtable
ASU Ctr for Integrated Solutions,
USC Ctr for Sust Cities, CICS-NC,
GUND Inst Ecol Econ, ECU Inst Coast
Sci & Pol, UCAR, USCar ESP
RISAs (CISA, CLIMAS, GLISA, PacRISA,
SECC), East-West Ctr, FCI, SeaGrant
(MS-AL, TX), North Central CSC
Academia &
Education
EPRI
Broward County (FL), NYC
DEP, Portland (OR) Water
Bureau
State & Local
Government
AZA, CLiPSE, CLEO Inst., Collab for Adapt to Climate Chg,
MADE CLEAR, NCSE (x2!), Running Start Inst
Adapt Sci IWG, GSA, Health IWG
Manzanita Tribe
AOOS, ESIP Federation, IOOS Assn,
NEON Inc, USCLIVAR, USA NPN
PNW Tribal Clim Chg Net
Tribal
Connecting Science and Policy
• Are we answering the right questions?
• Do we have the right observations and feedback
mechanisms?
• Are we engaging with the right users?
• Do we understand how the information we produce
can influence the decision space?
Coproduction Issues
• Does the “boundary” between
scientists and users need to be
actively managed?
• Is there a culture of mutual
learning?
• What is the value of
information produced vs the
cost of producing the
information?
Are we focusing our
investments on measurable
improvements in human and
environmental welfare?
Ideas for Engagement for MtnClim
• Creating new reports that can be used as Technical
Input documents for the next quadrennial report
• Building a community of practice for translation of
key findings and data from the NCA into useful
material for specific applications, eg adaptation plans
for cities, regional coastal management areas,
cooperative extension or NRCS, etc.
• Responding to the research needs identified
• Asking a member of the NCADAC or an author team
to speak at a professional society meeting
Ideas for Engagement
• Documenting the costs and benefits of adaptation
actions in a rigorous and reproducable way
• Working with students to fill known gaps in
knowledge, either through undergraduate classwork
or graduate studies
• Documenting the development of social networks
around climate issues
• Setting up a panel discussion focused on solutions at
your church, outdoor club or school
• Joining NCAnet!
• Becoming an author of NCA2018!
We need your ideas!
• Help us build the sustained assessment
process, both inside and outside of the
federal government
• What are realistic ways that the process
can be sustained?
For more information:
http://assessment.globalchange.gov
Sponsored by the Institute of the Environment
In partnership with the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences
CCASS Themes/Grand Challenges
• Bridging the gap between science and
decision making
• Managing risk in a complex,
interdisciplinary and multi-sectoral
context
• Supporting transformational adaptation
and preparing for extreme climate and
weather events
• Finding synergies among adaptation and
mitigation strategies to promote
sustainability
Dedication.
Kathy Jacobs
Center for Climate Adaptation Science and
Solutions
845 N. Park Ave Suite 535
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85718
jacobsk@email.arizona.edu
www.ccass.arizona.edu
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report