Erikson & Tedin, American Public Opinion, 6th ed.
Chap. 1—Public Opinion in Democratic Societies
1. Public Opinion & Government
a. Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1744) early/1st user of term "public opinion"
b. important in popular sovereignty and theory of democracy
c. Jas. Bryce (1900): “obvious weakness…difficulty of ascertaining it”
d. Gallup and scientific polling (1936 and after) changes that—or does it?
2.
Public Opinion Defined: public then opinion
a. all/entire population; all adults
b. attentive publics
c. issue publics
d. disagreements which cannot be resolved by science alone
e. disagreements about what is factual is a belief, not opinion
f. opinions are preferences (relevant to government)
g. whatever the polls say the public is thinking is now public opinion
3.
Evolution of Polling
a. Harrisburg Pennsylvanian conducted 1st straw polls (1824)
b. 1896 to 1936: the height of straw polls; media tools
c. Claude Robinson (1932): error rate 12 to 17 percentage points
d. Gallup/Crossley/Roper quota samples better; overestimate GOP vote
e. NORC (the GSS) and SRC (the ANES) used area probability
f. exit polls (1960s on)
g. RDD and media polling (1970s on)
h. linkage politics: augments personal contacts, letter writing
i. media driven as to topics; no longer public initiating contact w. pol's
4.
Linkage Models
a. rational activist model: issue voting by informed, active citizens
b. parties model: party platforms, candidates, and loyalty  voting
c. interest group model: belong to groups which influence voting
d. role playing model: officials’ duty is to respond to pubic opinion
e. sharing model: officials are elected who are like “us”, share our views
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Erikson & Tedin, American Public Opinion, 6th ed.
Chap. 2—What are Election Polls and How are They Conducted?
1. Sampling
a. SRS (simple random sample): equal chance of being selected
b. representativeness: does the sample match the population
c. central limit theorem: basis for confidence interval, sampling error
d. sample biases (non-random, bad frames, quota method, refusals)
e. modern: multistage area probability (cluster) sampling, RDD
f. question wording: ever-present source of error
i. multiple stimuli (two or more ideas in one question)
ii. framing effects (what questions came before)
iii. balanced arguments, introductions to questions
iv. middle position bias: public goes for it
v. acquiescence response set: tendency to agree w. any question
vi. filter questions: to omit answers from uninformed, uncaring
2.
Misuse of Surveys
a. modern straw polls: mail, 900-# polls
b. newsletter polls, “loaded” questions
3.
Interpreting Scientific Surveys
a. pre-election surveys: very early views, much error (undecideds)
b. undecideds: what to do with them
c. exit polls: interpreting election results is best use; calling the election
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Erikson & Tedin, American Public Opinion, 6th ed.
Chap. 3—Micro-level Opinion: The Psychology of Opinion-Holding
1. Political Attention and Opinion-holding
a. few are highly attentive; many are apolitical
b. what if public is not informed/knowledgeable and active?
c. political knowledge/trivia often missing or very low—but who needs it?
d. Clinton/Dole issue positions: 1/3rd knowledgeable, 1/3rd clueless
e. opinion change: 10 to 25% inconsistent over short periods of time
f. are many "opinions" just answers given to pollsters' questions?
g. Note: text/table disagreements; percentages summed across all cells
2.
Liberal-Conservative Ideology and the Organization of Opinions
a. ideology: beliefs about proper order of society, how to achieve it
b. half are "moderate/middle" & another 1/4th choose "not interested";
c. half know which party is more conservative & what that means
d. willing to change/open-minded vs. favor status quo/moral, religious
e. only 12-25% judged to be "ideologues" (eval. parties/cands. by ideology),
25-40% eval. parties by "group benefits"; 17-25% have no issue content
f. lib/con has multiple dimensions: lib. on one but cons. on another
g. higher one's information level, the more ideology matters, is consistent
3.
Party Identification
a. a central aspect of political identity for most people; stable
b. most political activists, politicians have strong(er) party, ideological views
c. correlates well with issues stands, ideology except for "apoliticals"
d. differences between parties, followers growing (since 1964 esp.)
e. one three basic reasons for vote choice (others are issues, candidates)
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