Bitterroot College
Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Rosenberg Consulting
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................................3
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN ............................................................................................................4
Ravalli County Demographics ............................................................................................................. 4
Service Area Demographics ............................................................................................................ 4
Income Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 5
Age Profile ..................................................................................................................................... 5
Race / Ethnicity Profile ................................................................................................................... 7
Educational Attainment.................................................................................................................. 7
Labor Market Analysis........................................................................................................................ 8
Unemployment .............................................................................................................................. 8
Industry Employment ................................................................................................................... 10
Job Market .................................................................................................................................. 11
CURRENT INSTRUCTIONAL PROGRAM .....................................................................................................12
GROWTH FORECAST ..................................................................................................................................13
Funding Limitations.......................................................................................................................... 13
Growth Forecast .............................................................................................................................. 13
Educational Attainment................................................................................................................ 13
Unemployment ............................................................................................................................ 14
Population ................................................................................................................................... 14
Participation Rate ........................................................................................................................ 14
Student Load ............................................................................................................................... 15
Enrollment Growth ...................................................................................................................... 16
Faculty Staffing Levels .................................................................................................................. 17
Future Program of Instruction .......................................................................................................... 18
SPACE UTILIZATION ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................19
Existing Space .................................................................................................................................. 19
Future Space Needs ......................................................................................................................... 19
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Introduction
This purpose of this plan is to identify the future space needs for the Bitterroot College. The plan uses the time
horizon of 2020 and 2025.
The first part of the plan includes an external scan for the College’s service area. This includes analyses of
demographic and labor market data and projections.
The next part of the plan examines the current (spring 2014) instructional program. This is followed by a growth
forecast. The forecast is then used to calculate future space needs.
Many assumptions are made when constructing such a forecast. The plan can be used as a dynamic planning
document. When certain assumptions change, the resulting forecast can be adjusted. One of the main purposes
of the plan is to help the reader understand the relationship between the many factors affecting growth and the
resulting instructional program and space needs.
Rosenberg Consulting
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
External Environmental Scan
The external environmental scan is an analysis of the environment in which Bitterroot College operates. The
chapter analyzes the demographics of the service area and projected future trends. This data will provide a basis
from which one can make some predictions regarding enrollment growth and future spac e needs. The data
should also be used for other planning efforts at the college. These may include academic, strategic, technology
and other kinds of planning.
As in The Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment 2010 the College’s effective service area is assumed to
be Ravalli County as the vast majority of students attending the College reside within the County.
Ravalli County Demographics
Service Area Demographics
Ravalli county has a population of more than 41,000 people with a median age of 47. The population of the
County is older than the State as a whole. The County’s population is growing at an annual rate of 0.68%, slightly
slower than the State and the Nation. Median household income is growing at 3.52% which is below the growth
rate for the State of Montana.
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
RAVALLI COUNTY DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 2013-2018
Ravalli County
2013
Montana
2018
2013
2018
Population
41,299
42,721
1,012,754
1,051,679
Households
17,489
18,265
421,727
441,009
Families
11,665
12,043
262,465
270,946
2
2
2
2
Owner Occupied Housing Units
12,654
13,259
275,980
289,281
Renter Occupied Housing Units
4,835
5,006
145,747
151,728
47
48
40
41
Area
State
National
Population
0.68%
0.76%
0.71%
Households
0.87%
0.90%
0.74%
Families
0.64%
0.64%
0.63%
Owner HHs
0.94%
0.95%
0.94%
Median Household Income
3.52%
3.86%
3.03%
Average Household Size
Median Age
Trends: 2013 - 2018 Annual Rate
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online 2014
Income Analysis
The population of Ravalli County has slightly lower incomes compared with the State as a whole. This might
result primarily from the age of the population (i.e., more retirees on fixed incomes). The median household
income in 2013 was $42,166, approximately 5% lower than that of the State. Per capita income was nearly the
same for the County and State populations.
RAVALLI COUNTY INCOME PROFILE 2013-2018
Ravalli County
Households by Income
2013
Montana
2018
2013
2018
<$15,000
15.2%
14.4%
14.0%
13.2%
$15,000 - $24,999
15.2%
11.0%
12.9%
9.7%
$25,000 - $34,999
11.7%
9.2%
12.2%
9.1%
$35,000 - $49,999
14.3%
15.3%
15.3%
12.8%
$50,000 - $74,999
18.8%
21.4%
20.1%
22.8%
$75,000 - $99,999
12.0%
14.3%
11.7%
15.4%
$100,000 - $149,999
8.1%
8.7%
9.2%
11.4%
$150,000 - $199,999
2.9%
3.5%
2.6%
3.3%
$200,000+
1.9%
2.2%
2.0%
2.3%
Median Household Income
$42,166
$50,130
$44,613
$53,919
Average Household Income
$56,805
$63,296
$59,203
$69,516
Per Capita Income
$24,138
$27,141
$24,864
$29,354
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online 2014
Age Profile
Following is the age profile of the Ravalli County population for 2013 and the projection for 2018. The graph
shows the projected change between 2013 and 2018. The biggest growth (as a percentage of the population)
Rosenberg Consulting
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
will be in the older age groups of 65 years and older. Thus, the County population is aging further. As seen
earlier, the median age is expected to increase from 47 to 48 over the next five years.
Two key age segments for community college enrollment are 15-19 and 20-24. These two segments will see
declines over the next five years, as percentages of the population. Note: in terms of absolute numbers of
individuals, these two segments will remain essentially unchanged.
RAVALLI COUNTY AGE AND RACE/ETHNICITY PROFILE 2013-2018
Ravalli County
Montana
Population by Age
2013
2018
2013
2018
0-4
5.1%
5.1%
6.1%
6.1%
5-9
5.7%
5.4%
6.1%
5.9%
10 - 14
6.2%
6.0%
6.1%
6.1%
15 - 19
6.0%
5.8%
6.3%
6.1%
20 - 24
4.5%
4.4%
6.8%
6.2%
25 - 34
9.1%
9.1%
12.6%
12.5%
35 - 44
10.9%
10.4%
11.2%
11.4%
45 - 54
14.5%
13.0%
13.8%
12.2%
55 - 64
17.2%
17.0%
15.0%
15.0%
65 - 74
12.5%
14.6%
9.2%
11.2%
75 - 84
6.0%
6.8%
4.6%
5.1%
85+
2.4%
2.5%
2.1%
2.2%
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online 2014
RAVALLI COUNTY AGE SEGMENTATION PROFILE
2013
2018
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0-4
5-9
Rosenberg Consulting
10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84
85+
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Race / Ethnicity Profile
Ravalli County’s population is 95% white. This is projected to fall to 93.4% by 2018. Though the County remains
less diverse than the State of Montana, it will become more diverse in the future.
RAVALLI COUNTY RACE/ETHNICITY PROFILE 2013-2018
Ravalli County
Race and Ethnicity
Montana
2013
2018
2013
2018
White Alone
95.0%
93.4%
88.8%
87.4%
Black Alone
0.6%
1.5%
0.8%
1.6%
American Indian Alone
1.0%
1.1%
6.3%
6.3%
Asian Alone
0.7%
0.9%
0.7%
0.8%
Pacific Islander Alone
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Some Other Race Alone
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
Two or More Races
2.0%
2.2%
2.7%
3.0%
Hispanic Origin (Any Race)
3.2%
3.7%
3.1%
3.6%
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online 2014
Educational Attainment
Educational attainment data describes the maximum degree or grade completed by the population. The chart
shows the percentage of the population for the County and the State for each of the different attainment levels.
For example, in the County, 35% of the population (over 25 years of age), have graduated high school as their
highest educational attainment. Seven percent have earned an Associate Degree as their highest educational
attainment.
The two largest categories, “High School Graduate” and “Some College, No Degree,” typically comprise the
population segments most likely to enroll in community college classes. The data shows that the County has a
higher percentage of people in these two categories, than does the State. Approximately 61% of the County
population over 25 years of age, are in these two groups, versus 56% for the State.
RAVALLI COUNTY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT (OVER 25 YEARS OF AGE)
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than
9th Grade
9th - 12th
Grade, No
Diploma
Ravalli County
2%
6%
35%
Montana
3%
6%
31%
Rosenberg Consulting
Some
High School
College, No
Graduate
Degree
Associate
Degree
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Pr
ofessional
Degree
26%
7%
18%
7%
25%
8%
20%
9%
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Labor Market Analysis
The Montana Department of Labor and Industry divides Montana into 5 regions. These regions are as follows:





Region 1 - Northwest (Missoula, Kalispell, Ravalli County)
Region 2 - South Central Montana (Helena, Bozeman, Dillon, Butte)
Region 3 - North Central Montana (Great Falls, Havre)
Region 4 - South Central Montana (Billings)
Region 5 – Eastern Montana
For the purposes the labor market analysis, Regions 1 and 2 will be considered. Although Ravalli County is within
the boundary of Region 1, it is quite close to parts of Region 2 as well.
Unemployment
The following chart shows the historical annual unemployment rates in Ravalli County from 2004 through 2013.
Data for Missoula County, Montana and the United States are shown for comparison. Since peaking in 2010, the
unemployment rate has fallen steadily. Ravalli County’s unemployment rate however, is higher than neighboring
Missoula County and for the State of Montana as a whole. The 2013 unemployment rate in Ravalli County was
7.4%, nearly two percentage points higher than the rate for Montana (5.6%).
RAVALLI COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PROFILE (2004-2013)
12%
Ravalli County
Missoula County
10%
Montana
8%
United States
6%
4%
2%
0%
2004
Rosenberg Consulting
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
The following table shows the March 2014 unemployment rates for all Montana Counties in ascending order.
Ravalli County has the 10th highest unemployment rate of Montana’s 56 counties. The data was obtained from
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
March 2014 Montana County
Unemployment Rate Rankings
County
Rate
Ranking
Montana
6.0
*
Fallon
2.6
1
Richland
3.1
2
Sweet Grass
3.3
3
McCone
3.6
4
Sheridan
3.6
5
Dawson
3.6
6
Treasure
3.9
7
Wibaux
4.1
8
Garfield
4.1
9
Powder River
4.3
10
Toole
4.4
11
Yellowstone
4.4
12
Custer
4.5
13
Gallatin
4.5
14
Valley
4.6
15
Beaverhead
4.6
16
Chouteau
4.6
17
Daniels
4.8
18
Lewis and Clark
4.8
19
Golden Valley
4.8
20
Musselshell
5.0
21
Stillwater
5.0
22
Teton
5.1
23
Judith Basin
5.1
24
Carbon
5.1
25
Cascade
5.2
26
Madison
5.3
27
Wheatland
5.5
28
Carter
5.6
29
Meagher
5.7
30
Rosenberg Consulting
March 2014 Montana County
Unemployment Rate Rankings
County
Rate
Ranking
Missoula
5.7
31
Prairie
5.7
32
Silver Bow
5.9
33
Fergus
5.9
34
Liberty
5.9
35
Jefferson
6.0
36
Pondera
6.6
37
Park
6.6
38
Hill
6.8
39
Phillips
6.8
40
Blaine
6.9
41
Roosevelt
7.1
42
Rosebud
7.3
43
Petroleum
7.5
44
Deer Lodge
7.6
45
Broadwater
8.1
46
Ravalli
8.1
47
Flathead
8.2
48
Lake
8.4
49
Powell
8.8
50
Granite
10.1
51
Mineral
10.5
52
Glacier
11.6
53
Big Horn
13.6
54
Sanders
14.8
55
Lincoln
16.1
56
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Industry Employment
The following chart shows the County’s employment by industry. Service occupations comprise nearly half of all
jobs. This is followed by retail trade, construction and manufacturing.
RAVALLI COUNTY INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT 2013
Services
48%
Retail Trade
15%
Construction
10%
Manufacturing
8%
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
5%
Agriculture/Mining
5%
Transportation/Utilities
4%
Public Administration
3%
Wholesale Trade
2%
Information
2%
0%
Rosenberg Consulting
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Page 10
Job Market
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks labor market data
for the entire country. The database for Montana Regions 1 & 2 includes
a total of more than 750 occupations. From this database, certain
selection criteria were applied to construct a list of “target
occupations.” These are occupations considered high wage and high
skill. The criteria to develop the list follow:



Median Wage greater than $17,000
Degree Required less than or equal to Associate Degree
Replacement Needs for Regions 1 & 2 combined, greater than
or equal to 25
The resulting list follows, and includes 19 occupations.
WESTERN MONTANA TARGET OCCUPATIONS
SOCCode
29-1111
43-3031
47-2031
53-3032
19-4093
11-1021
41-1011
41-4012
43-1011
29-2061
49-9071
49-3023
47-2111
13-1199
47-2141
47-1011
47-2073
SOCTitle
Registered Nurses
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing
Clerks
Carpenters
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Forest and Conservation Technicians
General and Operations Managers
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and
Manufacturing, Except Technical and
Scientific Products
First-Line Supervisors of Office and
Administrative Support Workers
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational
Nurses
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General
Automotive Service Technicians and
Mechanics
Electricians
Business Operations Specialists, All Other
Painters, Construction and Maintenance
First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades
and Extraction Workers
Operating Engineers and Other Construction
Equipment Operators
15-1150
Computer Support Specialists
33-3051
Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers
Rosenberg Consulting
Degree Required
Job Training Required
Associate's degree
High school diploma
High school diploma
High school diploma
Associate's degree
Associate's degree
High school diploma
High school diploma
Moderate-term on-the-job
training (OTJT)
Apprenticeship
Short-term (OTJT)
Moderate-term (OTJT)
High school diploma
$57,937
48
37
Region 1 & 2
85
% Change in
Jobs 2010 to
2020 (MT)
39%
$29,433
39
38
77
13%
$35,182
$36,586
$31,315
$76,407
$34,164
35
40
44
28
29
37
29
20
30
26
72
69
64
58
55
21%
15%
-1%
4%
7%
$42,662
26
24
50
9%
$41,224
24
25
49
15%
$35,935
24
22
46
26%
15%
Median
Wage (MT)
Replacement Needs 2014-2021
Region 1
Region 2
Postsecondary nondegree award
High school diploma
Moderate-term (OTJT)
$31,367
23
23
46
High school diploma
Long-term (OTJT)
$33,503
20
20
40
2%
High school diploma
High school diploma
Less than high school
Apprenticeship
Long-term (OTJT)
Moderate-term (OTJT)
$53,100
$49,427
$35,584
21
13
14
15
18
14
36
31
28
19%
11%
7%
$52,719
11
16
27
22%
Moderate-term (OTJT)
$42,570
15
12
27
25%
Moderate-term (OTJT)
$38,413
14
13
27
18%
Moderate-term (OTJT)
$45,951
12
14
26
10%
High school diploma
High school diploma
Some college, no
degree
High school diploma or
equivalent
Page 11
Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
Draft May 15, 2014
Current Instructional Program
Bitterroot College has experienced dramatic growth since opening in 2009. The Spring 2014 semester is
summarized in the table below. The table breaks out the FTES (full-time equivalent students), and SCH (student
contact hours) by lecture and laboratory. SCH per FTEF is a measure of efficiency. It measures the number of
student contact hours generated per full-time equivalent faculty. It is not expected that all subjects will achieve
the same level of this metric. Some disciplines have smaller class sizes for pedagogical reasons or due to
compliance with external accreditation standards. What is important is the SCH/FTEF for the College as a whole.
A small college, when it reaches a critical mass, might be expected to reach a level of 300 or so. This require s
increasing average class sizes over time.
Sections
Applied Arts & Sciences
Accounting
Allied Health
Anthropology
Art
Business
Biology - Human
Biology - Micro
Biology - Organismal
Business
Computer Applications
Chemistry
Communications
History
Literature
Mathematics
Native American Studies
Natural Resource Mgmt
Political Science
Psychology
Science
Sociology
Spanish
Statistics
Writing
Total
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
1
6
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
3
41
Bitterroot College Program of Instruction Spring 2014 by Subject
Average
Average
1
2
FTES
SCH
Lecture
Lab Class
FTES Lab
Lecture
Lecture
Class Size
Size
12.0
1.6
24
11.0
2.9
44
16.0
3.2
48
18.0
3.6
54
17.0
3.4
51
7.0
1.4
21
12.0
6.0
4.8
0.4
72
16.0
16.0
3.2
1.1
48
12.0
12.0
1.6
0.8
24
9.0
1.8
27
12.5
5.0
75
17.0
11.0
3.4
0.7
51
19.0
3.8
57
19.0
5.1
76
20.0
4.0
60
16.5
19.8
297
15.0
3.0
45
7.0
7.0
0.5
0.5
7
18.5
6.1
92
19.0
5.1
76
6.0
1.2
18
20.0
4.0
60
7.0
2.3
35
10.0
2.7
40
15.0
9.0
135
14.6
10.4
102.5
3.5
1,537
1
Full-time Equivalent Students – One FTES = 15 credit hours
2
Student Contact Hours
3
Full-time Equivalent Faculty – One FTEF = 15 credit hours taught
Rosenberg Consulting
SCH Lab
6
16
12
11
7
52
FTEF
3
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
1.2
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.6
7.4
SCH/FTEF
180
165
240
270
255
105
154
180
120
135
188
191
285
285
300
248
225
53
276
285
90
300
105
150
225
208
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Growth Forecast
The growth forecast does not only project levels of student enrollment. It includes forecasts of faculty staffing
levels, student headcount, and full-time equivalent students (FTES). In order to develop a growth forecast for
the College, many pieces of data were considered. These include:



Historical enrollment trends
Demographic forecast
Anticipated levels of:
o Student participation (as a proportion of the population)
o Efficiency (SCH/FTEF)
Funding Limitations
One important consideration when analyzing growth is considering funding. If a college’s budget is not funded
for growth, growth will be limited, or not happen at all. In the case of Bitterroot College, the level of funding has
not increased over the past three years. The result is that the previous years’ robust growth slowed. The
following table shows the historical enrollment growth at the College.
Bitterroot College Historical FTES
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Fall 2009 Spring 2010 Fall 2010 Spring 2011 Fall 2011 Spring 2012 Fall 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014
As this report will show in the growth forecast, there is a significant opportunity for enrollment growth at
Bitterroot College. This growth will not be realized if adequate funding is not provided to hire faculty, conduct
marketing and outreach, and provide necessary student support services.
Growth Forecast
There are many factors that indicate the potential for enrollment growth at the College. The following sections
discusses these factors.
Educational Attainment
The educational attainment of the service area population is another indicator of potential growth at the
college. In Ravalli County, 69% of the population 25 years of age and older, have “some college or less” as their
highest educational attainment. This is higher than the percentage for Montana (64%).
Rosenberg Consulting
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Unemployment
Though it has been decreasing for the past four years, the unemployment rate in Ravalli County has been, and
remains, considerably higher than that of the State and of neighboring Missoula County. Unemployment is
usually positively correlated with demand for community college classes, as people are seeking to increase their
skills and develop new employment opportunities.
Population
The County population is growing at an annual rate of 0.68%. The segment of the population between 18 and 24
years of age is not expected to grow much at all over the next five years. Most of the population growth will be
in the 55 and older age segments. The 65-74 year old population segment will grow by 21.1% over the next five
years. The 75-84 year old population segment will grow by 17.2%. There is a significant growth opportunity for
the College to provide an array of course offerings that cater to the educational needs of older County residents.
Participation Rate
Student participation rate (SPR) is the measure of how many students attend classes at the college per 1,000
people residing in the service area. In spring 2014, student headcount at Bitterroot College was 229. The
population of Ravalli County was 41,299. The SPR therefore, was 7.2.
Growth in the student participation rate is perhaps the biggest driver of future enrollment growth at the
Bitterroot College. This is due to the fact that as a new college, only five years old, awareness of the College in
the population is still growing.
The SPR has been growing since the college opened its doors in 2009. The dramatic growth experienced in the
first seven semesters slowed in spring 2013 when funding levels limited the College’s ability to add faculty and
expand course offerings. The following chart shows the historical student participation rates from fall 2009
through spring 2014.
Bitterroot College Historical Student Participation Rate
6
5.5
5.2
5
5.1
5.0
4.7
4.4
4
3.3
3
2.7
1.8
2
1
0.7
0
Fall 2009 Spring 2010 Fall 2010 Spring 2011 Fall 2011 Spring 2012 Fall 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014
Note: The College should conduct a more detailed analysis of student participation rates, disaggregated by
various demographic markers such as gender, race, income, etc. It is beyond the scope of this report to conduct
such an analysis.
Rosenberg Consulting
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Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
The consulting team analyzed participation rates at other two-year colleges in Montana. It seems reasonable
that by the year 2025, Bitterroot College should be able to achieve a significantly higher student participation
rate. To achieve this, the College will have to do more outreach, expand course offerings for traditio nal, nontraditional and lifelong learners and continue to establish a successful track record as a college. The following
chart shows the historical and projected student participation rates.
Bitterroot College Student Participation Rate
Actual
Projected
30
25.0
25
20
15
10
5
Fall 2025
Fall 2024
Spring 2025
Spring 2024
Fall 2023
Fall 2022
Spring 2023
Fall 2021
Spring 2022
Fall 2020
Spring 2021
Fall 2019
Spring 2020
Fall 2018
Spring 2019
Fall 2017
Spring 2018
Fall 2016
Spring 2017
Fall 2015
Spring 2016
Fall 2014
Spring 2015
Fall 2013
Spring 2014
Fall 2012
Spring 2013
Fall 2011
Spring 2012
Fall 2010
Spring 2011
Fall 2009
Spring 2010
0
Student Load
In order to calculate future growth, it is necessary to make some assumptions regarding the number of units the
average student will take. In spring 2014, the average student unit load was 6.9. The consulting team believes
that the average student unit load will increase significantly over the next 10 years as awareness of the College
grows and course offerings expand across subjects and the course schedule. For a small college, an average
student unit load of 10 is not uncommon. The following chart shows the historical and projected student unit
load data.
Bitterroot College Units per Student Enrolled
Actual
Projection
12
10.0
10
8
6
4
2
Rosenberg Consulting
Fall 2025
Spring 2025
Fall 2024
Spring 2024
Fall 2023
Fall 2022
Spring 2023
Fall 2021
Spring 2022
Fall 2020
Spring 2021
Fall 2019
Spring 2020
Fall 2018
Spring 2019
Fall 2017
Spring 2018
Fall 2016
Spring 2017
Fall 2015
Spring 2016
Fall 2014
Spring 2015
Fall 2013
Spring 2014
Fall 2012
Spring 2013
Fall 2011
Spring 2012
Fall 2010
Spring 2011
Fall 2009
Spring 2010
0
Page 15
Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Enrollment Growth
Another driver for determining future enrollment growth is an analysis of the historical enrollments at the
College. The two most common ways of measuring college enrollment are headcount and FTES (full-time
equivalent students). FTES is a better measure because it takes into account the number of actual hours
students attend class. The first chart shows the historical and projected student headcount at the College. The
second chart does the same for FTES.
Using the service area population growth rate from the demographic data, and the SPR numbers just discussed,
the following headcount growth forecast was developed.
Bitterroot College Headcount
Actual
Projection
1,121
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Fall 2009
Spring 2010
Fall 2010
Spring 2011
Fall 2011
Spring 2012
Fall 2012
Spring 2013
Fall 2013
Spring 2014
Fall 2014
Spring 2015
Fall 2015
Spring 2016
Fall 2016
Spring 2017
Fall 2017
Spring 2018
Fall 2018
Spring 2019
Fall 2019
Spring 2020
Fall 2020
Spring 2021
Fall 2021
Spring 2022
Fall 2022
Spring 2023
Fall 2023
Spring 2024
Fall 2024
Spring 2025
Fall 2025
-
Given these assumptions of future data trends, the following chart shows the projected FTES for Bitterroot
College through the year 2025. The chart includes the historical data (solid line) along with the future projection
(dashed line).
Bitterroot College Student Full-Time Equivalent Students (FTES)
Actual
Projection
749
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Rosenberg Consulting
Fall 2025
Fall 2024
Spring 2025
Fall 2023
Spring 2024
Fall 2022
Spring 2023
Fall 2021
Spring 2022
Fall 2020
Spring 2021
Fall 2019
Spring 2020
Fall 2018
Spring 2019
Fall 2017
Spring 2018
Fall 2016
Spring 2017
Fall 2015
Spring 2016
Fall 2014
Spring 2015
Fall 2013
Spring 2014
Fall 2012
Spring 2013
Fall 2011
Spring 2012
Fall 2010
Spring 2011
Fall 2009
Spring 2010
0
Page 16
Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Faculty Staffing Levels
FTEF, or full-time equivalent faculty, is a measure used to represent the amount of faculty time used in a given
semester. One FTEF is assumed to be 15 course hours of teaching. In spring 2014, Bitterroot College had 7.4
FTEF. In order to forecast future levels of FTEF, one must first make some assumptions regarding class size or
efficiency. The measure used for this is the number of weekly student contact hours (SCH) generated per FTEF.
As a note, 15 weekly student contact hours equals one FTES.
In spring 2014, Bitterroot College generated 1,589 weekly student contact hours. Therefore, if one divides this
number by 7.4 (the number of FTEF) the result is SCH/FTEF of 215. As a point of information, the average class
size in this semester was 14.6 for lecture classes and 10.4 for labs.
The consulting team feels strongly that as the college grows, average class sizes will increase, as w ill SCH
generated per FTEF. Therefore, enrollment will grow at a more rapid rate than FTEF. This is good news for the
College, since costs will rise more slowly than enrollments. In other words, the College will become more
efficient, generating more student contact hours (or FTES) for each dollar invested in faculty costs.
The following chart shows the forecast of SCH/FTEF.
Bitterroot College SCH per FTEF
Actual
Projected
350
290
300
250
200
150
100
50
Rosenberg Consulting
Fall 2025
Fall 2024
Spring 2025
Fall 2023
Spring 2024
Fall 2022
Spring 2023
Fall 2021
Spring 2022
Fall 2020
Spring 2021
Fall 2019
Spring 2020
Fall 2018
Spring 2019
Fall 2017
Spring 2018
Fall 2016
Spring 2017
Fall 2015
Spring 2016
Fall 2014
Spring 2015
Fall 2013
Spring 2014
Fall 2012
Spring 2013
Fall 2011
Spring 2012
Fall 2010
Spring 2011
Fall 2009
Spring 2010
-
Page 17
Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Future Program of Instruction
While it is not possible to predict with any certainty the composition of the 2025 program of instruc tion at the
College, it is possible to approximate it. By applying the FTES growth factor to the existing program of
instruction, one arrives at such an approximation. The purpose of this is not to dictate future curricular content.
Rather, it is to use the future program of instruction as a proxy for calculating future instructional space needs
(classroom and laboratory space). At present, the College has few lab classes. Lab classes account for only 3.27%
of student contact hours (or FTES). This number will certainly grow in the next ten years, with the expansion of
programs and improved facilities. Therefore, in the following projection, the laboratory component of the
program of instruction is assumed to grow to 23% of student contact hours or FTES. A lecture to lab ratio of 3:1
is very reasonable for a small college. Again, the distribution of lab FTES and SCH are guesses made by the
consulting team, based on a typical program of instruction. The actual distribution will depend on curriculum
developed by faculty and administrators.
The table includes the lecture and lab portions of FTES and SCH. Additionally, the table includes the ASF
(assignable square footage) of space needed for classrooms and labs.
Bitterroot College Program of Instruction Spring 2025 by Subject
FTES Lecture
FTES Lab
SCH Lecture
SCH Lab
Applied Arts & Sciences
11.3
170
Accounting
14.9
5.8
224
87
Allied Health
19.5
3.2
292
48
Anthropology
25.5
382
Art
11.9
12.1
179
182
Business
7.1
2.8
107
42
Biology - Human
11.0
25.8
166
386
Biology - Micro
9.1
21.1
136
317
Biology - Organismal
5.1
11.9
76
178
Business
9.2
3.6
138
53
Computer Applications
23.0
12.4
345
186
Chemistry
15.3
13.9
230
209
Communications
26.9
403
History
30.8
5.0
462
75
Literature
24.3
4.0
365
59
Mathematics
140.1
2,101
Native American Studies
21.2
318
Natural Resource Management
2.0
4.6
30
69
Political Science
43.4
651
Psychology
10.8
25.1
161
376
Science
4.4
4.0
67
61
Sociology
28.3
424
Spanish
8.2
8.3
123
125
Statistics
18.9
283
Writing
54.8
8.9
821
134
Total
577.0
172.5
8,655
2,587
Lecture ASF
210
277
360
471
221
132
204
168
94
170
426
284
498
571
450
2,593
393
37
803
199
82
524
152
349
1,014
10,680
4
Lab ASF
112
102
467
53
908
745
877
68
318
537
113
89
341
565
142
187
201
5,824
4
Assignable square feet, also called “usable” square feet, is the measure of the interior portion of a space. Typically ASF excludes stairways, circulation
areas, utility and janitorial rooms.
Rosenberg Consulting
Page 18
Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Space Utilization Analysis
Existing Space
This analysis is specifically geared toward a new Campus at the Hamilton School District Westview facility, so no
analysis was done concerning the existing facilities.
Future Space Needs
Using the growth projections in the previous section of the Plan, formulas were applied to calculate the space
needs of the College. The following table shows the total space needs of the College by the year 2025, or
whenever FTES reaches the target shown in the 2025 program of instruction. The column labeled “Westview”
shows the expected square footages of space at the new facility after planned renovations are completed. The
table provides the figures under a lease scenario and a purchase scenario (if Westview were purchased, the
entire facility becomes available for remodeling and use; under lease provisions, 3300 sq. ft. of Westview remains
for the discretionary use of Hamilton School District).
The table shows that the planned facility at Westview, whether leased or purchased, will not provide enough
space to accommodate the projected growth of the College by the year 2025. However, if Westview were
purchased, the Space would be nearly adequate for 2020 projections; and if a purchase of Westview include d
adjacent undeveloped acreage, then new construction could be proposed to meet 2025 projections.
Bitterroot College Future Space Needs (All Figures are ASF – Assignable Square Feet)
Standard Space Categories
Westview
Lease
Westview
Purchase
4,230
4,230
Classroom
Space Needs 2020
5
5
Net Need
Net Need
Total Need
(surplus)
(surplus)
Lease
Purchase
4,165
(65)
(65)
Space Needs 2025
6
6
Net Need
Net Need
Total
(surplus)
(surplus)
Need
Lease
Purchase
6,058
1828
1828
Streaming Classroom
875
625
500
(375)
(125)
1,000
125
375
Laboratory
750
2375
3,908
3,158
1533
6,407
5,657
4032
Office/Conference
1,640
2520
4,007
2,367
1,487
5,425
3,785
2095
Library
750
1500
2,500
1,750
1,000
3,500
2,750
2,000
Food Service
160
625
600
440
(25)
1,000
840
375
*
**
500
500
500
900
900
900
Assembly/Exhibition
3,696
3,696
-
(3,696)
(3,696)
-
(3,696)
(3,696)
Meeting/Recreation
***
***
400
400
400
600
600
600
Lounge
***
***
204
204
204
204
204
204
Data Processing
100
100
250
150
150
500
400
400
Other (unassigned)
516
300
-
(516)
(300)
-
(288)
(1,168)
12,717
15,971
17,034
4317
1063
25,594
13,393
8,813
700
1,700
Merchandising
* include with Office/Conference space
** include with Food Service space
*** include with Assembly/Exhibition space
Other Space Categories - no current plans
Physical Plant
700
5
This is the difference between Space Needs 2020 and the currently planned space at Westview.
6
This is the difference between Space Needs 2025 and the currently planned space at Westview.
Rosenberg Consulting
2,500
Page 19
Bitterroot College Space Needs Forecast 2014-2025
June 7, 2014
Phys Ed (Indoor)
NA
NA
2,000
2,000
Child Development Center
NA
NA
1,400
1,400
Health Services
NA
NA
160
160
22,294
31,654
The currently planned space at a new Westview campus includes 12,717 ASF (assignable square feet) of space if
leased and 15,971 ASF of space if purchased. ASF measurements do not include rest rooms, corridors, janitorial
rooms, etc. Space analysis indicates that to properly accommodate the projected program of instruction in 2020,
there is a need for a total of 17,034 ASF of space. By 2025, the projection indicates a total facilities need of
25,594 ASF. This will build the facilities to a point where the college is a comprehensive college, offering a full
complement of instructional programs and support services.
Rosenberg Consulting
Page 20