BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM NEEDS ASSESSMENT July 19, 2010 July 19, 2010 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION........................................................................ 4 Overview ...................................................................... 4 Basis and Structure of the Plan ..................................... 4 INTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN ................................ 5 Overview ...................................................................... 5 Historical growth .......................................................... 5 Student Origins ............................................................ 5 Student Characteristics................................................. 6 Place of Residence ........................................................... 6 Gender Distribution ......................................................... 6 Age Segmentation ........................................................... 6 Course Load .................................................................... 7 Major ............................................................................... 7 Ravalli County Student Characteristics .......................... 8 Overview ......................................................................... 8 MUS Enrollments.............................................................. 8 Student Demographic Profile............................................ 9 Major Fields of Study ..................................................... 11 Conclusions ................................................................... 12 SURVEY RESPONSES .............................................................13 Educational Interests .................................................. 16 Continuing Education (non-credit) .................................. 16 Workforce Development ................................................. 17 Personal Enrichment....................................................... 18 Educational Goal ............................................................ 19 Delivery System / Schedule............................................. 21 Travel ............................................................................ 24 Communication & Technology ........................................ 26 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN ............................. 28 Overview .................................................................... 28 Service Area Demographics ........................................ 29 Income Analysis ............................................................. 29 Age Profile ..................................................................... 30 Race Ethnicity Profile ...................................................... 31 Educational Attainment .............................................. 32 Workforce Characteristics of the Local Region ............ 33 Sources of Employment .................................................. 33 Occupation Opportunities .............................................. 34 Capacities for Enrollment Growth ............................... 38 Population Growth / Shifts ............................................. 38 Population Characteristics .............................................. 38 Lack of competition........................................................ 38 Participation Rate ........................................................... 39 Overview .................................................................... 13 Respondent Profile......................................................... 13 Employment Information ............................................... 14 Age Profile ..................................................................... 15 2 Maas Companies, Inc. FUTURE ENROLLMENT GROWTH....................................41 Enrollment Forecast ................................................... 41 Overview ....................................................................... 41 Assumptions ................................................................. 41 Forecast ........................................................................ 41 FUTURE PROGRAM OF INSTRUCTION..........................43 Overview .................................................................... 43 Future Program of Instruction ........................................ 43 FUTURE SPACE NEEDS .........................................................45 Overview .................................................................... 45 Proposed Student Support Services through 2025 .......... 45 Proposed Space Allocation ............................................. 45 Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 3 July 19, 2010 Introduction OVERVIEW obtained The System (MUS). The external environmental The Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment qualitative data was gathered primarily from scan is an analysis of the characteristics of 2010 was developed to better understand the a survey conducted between February 1 and the Bitterroot College Program’s service area post-secondary educational needs of the April 1, 2010. A total of 755 responses were population, residents of the Ravalli County and the received from a variety of stakeholder educational opportunities. Bitterroot Valley. The Plan considers these groups including students, educators, and needs within the context of demographic community members. trends, economic trends as well as the educational opportunities currently available to County residents. This Plan looks forward to the year 2025 but should be considered a from various sources. its economy, and other The future projections provided in the last three chapters are intended to serve as a The Plan is divided into six chapters guide in decision-making and planning at the according to the various components of the BCP. Projections of this type are impossible analysis. These include: to make with absolute accuracy; however, they are rooted in hard data and the • Internal Environmental Scan • Survey Responses • External Environmental Scan experience in educational master planning BASIS AND STRUCTURE OF THE PLAN • Future Enrollment Growth with more than 75 community colleges. The The Plan was developed using both • Future Program of Instruction projections (and the supporting data and quantitative and qualitative information. • Future Space Needs analysis in the Plan) should be used to assist Both were important in order to develop a The internal environmental scan examines in comprehensive view of the present and the characteristics of the students attending development, outreach, scheduling, facilities future educational needs of the community, the Bitterroot College Program (BCP). It development, and the incorporation of new and how best to meet these needs. The also considers the other residents of the educational delivery systems. quantitative data included demographic, County who attend college at one of the jobs, educational attainment and other data other campuses of the Montana University dynamic (living) document that is updated and revised periodically. 4 consulting team’s more than 25 years of future program and curriculum Maas Companies, Inc. Internal Environmental Scan 2010 classes and there is still over one STUDENT ORIGINS is month of registration left until fall classes The Bitterroot College Program draws the comprehensive begin. The following graph shows the bulk of its students from the Bitterroot analysis of the students in the service area historical growth in FTES from fall 2007 to Valley in Ravalli County. In the spring 2010 attending two-year colleges. The first section the present. semester there were 74 students enrolled in OVERVIEW The Internal intended to Environmental provide a Scan will provide an analysis of the students at least one class. Only seven of these BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM - FTES HISTORY attending the Bitterroot College Program. students listed their home address as outside The following portion of this chapter considers the residents of Ravalli County and the two-year institutions they attend. Except when otherwise noted, all data are for the spring 2010 semester. HISTORICAL GROWTH Since 2007 the BCP has experienced more of Ravalli County (Missoula). Note, the data 35 indicated that there were nine students 29.3 30 this data. Also, the data do not include the 25 six students who were taking Montana Western Early Childhood Education classes 20 at the BCP facility. 15 10.9 than 400% growth. FTES1 has increased over this period from 7.1 in fall 2007 to 29.3 in spring 2010. At the time of this writing, there are 174 students registered for fall enrolled in Math 65 who are not included in 10 7.1 8.3 8.6 9.2 5 0 1 FTES stands for full-time equivalent students. This is defined as one student taking 15 units for a year (two semesters). This is a more valuable measurement of the size of the Program because it normalizes for the number of units students take. Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 5 July 19, 2010 STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS Gender Distribution Place of Residence Of the 74 students enrolled in at least one Of the 74 students attending classes at the course at the Bitterroot College Program in BCP in spring 2010, 29 listed their home spring 2010, 45 were female and 29 were town as Hamilton, 18 from Corvallis, eight male. It is not uncommon, nationally, for a from Victor, six each from Stevensville, majority of college students to be female. Missoula and Darby and one from Lolo. All The BCP should, however, monitor this of these students reside in Ravalli County ratio over time and ensure that course except for the six students from Missoula offerings and support services are developed and one student from Lolo. to attract students of both genders to the Age Segmentation Program. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM STUDENT ORIGIN BY CITY / TOWN SPRING 2010 Hamilton spring 2010 was 31.8 years. This average age was the same for male and female students. The youngest student was 17 years old and the oldest was 59. The following graph shows the age breakdown by age segment. The largest age segment is 25-34 year olds comprising 29% of the student body. The next largest segment is 20-24 year olds (27%), followed by 35-44 year olds (21%), BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM GENDER PROFILE - SPRING 2010 45-54 year olds (14%), students under 20 years old (6%) and those between 55 and 64 years old (3%). 29 Corvallis The average age of the BCP students for 18 Victor 8 Stevensville 6 Missoula 6 Darby BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM STUDENT AGE PROFILE SPRING 2010 Male 39% 6 Lolo Female 61% 1 0 10 20 30 40 55-64 3% 45-54 14% 35-44 21% 25-34 29% 20-24 27% <20 6% 0% 6 10% 20% 30% 40% Maas Companies, Inc. The age profile shows a student body that is load was 13 units. The following graph comprised mainly of nontraditional aged depicts the student load profile by units learners. It is likely that this experience is taken. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM STUDENT LOAD PROFILE - SPRING 2010 segments. Course Load For the spring 2010 semester, unduplicated The largest portion of BCP students listed General AA as their major. The rest of the illustrative of a Countywide need for postsecondary education for these age Major students had a variety of majors. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM DECLARED MAJOR - SPRING 2010 12+ 5% 9-11.9 16% 3-5.9 49% headcount was 74. Of those 74 individuals, 36 took just one BCP class during the 6-8.9 30% semester. Twenty-two students took two General AA 49 Business Administration Medical Information Technology 3 2 BCP classes, 12 took three BCP classes and Management 2 four took four BCP classes. The average Respiratory Care 1 course load was 1.8 BCP classes2. Notably, Computer System Technician 1 Pre-Pharmacy 1 many of these students are, most likely, BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM STUDENT LOAD PROFILE – SPRING 2010 taking at least one additional class either # OF CLASSES STUDENTS Sociology 1 through UMOnline or at the UM-COT 1 36 Nondegree 1 campus in Missoula. 2 22 Chemistry 1 For the spring 2010 semester, the median 3 12 Building Maintenance 1 number of units taken was 6.0. The 4 4 Energy Technology 1 minimum was three units and the maximum Grand Total 74 Undeclared 1 Administrative Management 1 2 Note, the data indicated that there were 9 students enrolled in Math 65 who are not included in this data. Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 7 July 19, 2010 RAVALLI COUNTY STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS includes students enrolled in the Colleges of various MUS campuses. Of these, 293 were Technology but omits those enrolled at any enrolled at one Overview of Montana’s three Community Colleges. Technology. The enrollment Bitterroot College Program students are historical enrollment numbers (unduplicated pattern of Ravalli County residents at the included in the UM Missoula COT numbers. by campus) from 2005 through 2009. UM This section examines the various Montana University System (MUS) of the table Colleges provides of the Missoula, being the closest campus, boasted campuses. This data was provided by the MUS Enrollments the highest number of Ravalli County Montana Office of the Commissioner of In the fall 2009 semester, there were 1,164 residents as students (821 including the Higher Education (OCHE). Note: this data residents of Ravalli County enrolled at the University and COT). UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA ENROLLMENTS BY RAVALLI COUNTY RESIDENTS (2005-2009) CAMPUS Spring 2005 Fall 2005 Spring 2006 Fall 2006 MSU Billings 9 11 10 11 MSU Billings COT 3 2 3 1 160 194 166 174 MSU Great Falls COT 7 14 12 MSU Northern 3 5 UM Helena COT 5 UM Missoula UM Missoula COT* Spring 2007 Spring 2008 Fall 2008 Spring 2009 Fall 2009 Grand Total 9 10 14 15 17 120 3 2 1 1 3 19 160 165 151 155 145 172 1,642 7 10 17 7 12 9 20 115 6 8 8 5 6 11 9 11 72 5 7 5 5 7 8 14 9 19 84 543 539 528 562 547 552 541 539 537 580 5,468 119 144 144 206 187 197 199 187 192 241 1,816 23 25 21 29 27 35 30 33 28 37 288 5 2 3 5 4 5 3 7 7 10 51 UM Western 39 35 30 40 37 39 35 49 43 54 401 Grand Total 916 976 930 1,048 999 1,034 992 1,022 995 1,164 10,076 MSU Bozeman UM Tech (Butte) UM Tech COT (Butte) 14 Fall 2007 * Includes the Bitterroot College Program 8 Maas Companies, Inc. Student Demographic Profile This section examines the demographic RAVALLI COUNTY RESIDENTS ATTENDING COT CAMPUSES SPRING 2010 UM MISSOULA COT makeup and enrollment pattern of Ravalli ALL OTHER COT CAMPUSES What does this data mean? First, it is important to make one assumption: Ravalli County the only residents County residents at UM Missoula COT NUMBER OF STUDENTS 241 52 and the other Colleges of Technology. AVERAGE LOAD 11.4 12.7 19 30 2 3 attending at Missoula or the 29.1 21.2 BCP. It is simply too far to any of the other COT campuses MAXIMUM LOAD There were 293 Ravalli County residents attending COT campuses during the spring MINIMUM LOAD AVERAGE AGE 2010 semester. The majority of them (241) MAXIMUM AGE 62 54 attended at the UM Missoula COT MINIMUM AGE 16 16 campus3. The other 52 attended at one of FEMALE 63% 40% the other four COT campuses: three at MALE 37% 60% Billings, 20 at Great Falls, 19 at Helena and commuting to a College of Technology for a Therefore, campus, are regular commute. the students attending classes at Billings, considerably higher at the “other” campuses Great Falls, Helena and Butte (30 versus 19 units). The average age of have relocated to live on or near those The table shows interesting data related to Ravalli County residents attending classes at campuses. It makes sense then, that they are these students. The average course load at Missoula/BCP was 29.1 versus 21.2 for younger (21.2 versus 29.1) and take a larger Missoula/BCP was 11.4 units while the those attending at the other campuses. course load (12.7 versus 11.4 units). These average at the other five COT campuses was Interestingly, the gender profile is almost are, for the most part, full-time students. 12.7. The maximum course load was also exactly reversed between the two groups. These campuses are not capturing the The are Ravalli County resident who wants to attend predominantly female (63%) while the college on a part-time basis. Conversely, the students attending at the other campuses County residents commuting to classes at are predominantly male (60%). the Missoula or BCP campuses are older and 10 at Butte. 3 These numbers include the students attending at the Bitterroot College Program in Hamilton. There were 67 Ravalli County residents who attended classes at Hamilton in the spring 2010 semester. Therefore, there were approximately 173 Ravalli County residents who attended classes in Missoula. There may be some students who attended classes at both campuses during this semester so the 173 number may be artificially low. Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 Missoula/BCP students prefer to carry a smaller course load. 9 July 19, 2010 The gender difference is harder to explain. seen earlier that a significant number of The County population is currently 50.3% Ravalli County residents want to attend female and 49.7% male – not a huge college classes on a part-time basis. The difference. It is interesting to note that for average BCP student from Ravalli NUMBER OF STUDENTS 68 173 whatever reason, the local campuses at County was also older than the average AVERAGE LOAD 6.0 13.5 Missoula and the BCP attract a significantly Missoula student from Ravalli County MAXIMUM LOAD 13 19 larger percentage of women than men. (31.8 MINIMUM LOAD 3 2 AVERAGE AGE 31.8 28.0 MAXIMUM AGE 59 62 MINIMUM AGE 17 16 Demographics of Missoula COT and Bitterroot College Program versus breakdown 28.0). was The not different between the two. gender significantly RAVALLI COUNTY RESIDENTS ATTENDING MISSOULA OR BCP CAMPUSES SPRING 2010 MISSOULA COT BCP ALONE3 There are also some important differences FEMALE 61% 64% between the Ravalli County residents who MALE 39% 36% attended classes at the Missoula COT campus in Missoula and those who attended classes at the Bitterroot College Program in Hamilton. The table shows some of the key data4. The students at the BCP took a much smaller course load than those at Missoula (6.0 versus 13.5). This reinforces the pattern 4 Data for the Missoula campus was extrapolated from the overall Missoula COT data and the BCP data. Necessarily, the extrapolation was done assuming that there were no students who attended classes at both campuses in the spring 2010 semester. Because of this likely incorrect assumption, the numbers are not exactly correct but should accurately reflect the general patterns discussed in the narrative. 10 Maas Companies, Inc. RAVALLI COUNTY RESIDENTS ATTENDING A MUS COT CAMPUSES - MAJOR PROFILE (FALL 2009) Major Fields of Study In order to better understand the educational demands of Ravalli County MAJOR Accounting Technology STUDENTS MAJOR 7 Health Information Technology STUDENTS 2 Administrative Management 4 Interior Design and Space Plan students, it is instructive to examine the Associate of Science 1 Management major fields of study for these Ravalli Automotive Technology 4 Medical Assisting 2 Aviation 1 Medical Billing & Coding 1 Aviation Maintenance Tech 2 Medical Information Technology 1 1 Metals Fabrication 1 14 Metals Technology 2 County residents who are currently attending 1 11 a Montana University System (MUS) COT Baccalaureate Prep campus. The following table shows the Bozeman-Dual Enrolled majors for the 293 County residents who Building Maintenance 2 Network Technology 2 Carpentry 3 Non-Degree 4 Computer System Technician 3 Paralegal Studies 4 Computer Technology 8 Pharmacy Technology Culinary Arts 4 Practical Nursing attended UM-COT campuses in the fall 2009 semester. The data shows that nearly half (48%) of the 5 10 Dental Hygiene 1 Pre-Apprenticeship Line Program 1 students are working toward general AA Diesel Technology 8 Pre-Radiologic Technology 1 degree. The next most popular fields are Drafting Technology 1 Pre-Surgical Technology 1 Early HS Non Degree – COT 1 Radiologic Technology 4 Electronics Technology 6 Recreational Power Equipment 6 Energy Technology 7 Registered Nursing 4 Fire and Rescue 5 Respiratory Care 1 Welding Technology 3 various vocational trades (13%) such as automotive maintenance, technology, carpentry, building culinary arts, electronics, welding. Health professions comprised another 11% of students. General AA General Studies 142 1 Grand Total 293 Students are also pursuing majors in business related fields (8%) including accounting and management. Computer related fields accounted for 4% of students. Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 11 July 19, 2010 Conclusions community to attend college, especially if The data is clear that the more local the local options do not exist. campus, the more it attracts nontraditional- The next chapter of this Plan presents aged learners. The corollary is also true. survey data that reinforces many of these Many residents who are working and may conclusions and sheds more light on the have a family, wish to attend college classes specific educational needs of the residents of but are unable and/or unwilling to relocate Ravalli County. or commute long distances. They also want to attend classes on a part-time basis to accommodate the other aspects of their lives. These nontraditional-aged students are simply much more likely to attend college classes if there is a local campus providing the classes that interest them. This conclusion should not be construed to imply that a local campus does not cater to younger residents as well. This is far from the case. The data clearly shows that the younger students will attend locally if presented the opportunity and classes that interest them (see the Internal Environmental Scan – Student Age Profile). Younger residents are more likely than older ones 12 however, to leave their local Maas Companies, Inc. Survey Responses • In many instances, there was a significant The An educational needs assessment survey was difference in the responses received from high respondent self identification. The two conducted from February 1 to April 1, 2010. school students versus non-high school students. largest groups, by far, were Working Person The survey was available in hard copy and In these cases, these responses were analyzed (412) and High School Student (270). The online. A total of 755 responses were separately. next largest groups were Retired (66), and OVERVIEW received from a diverse group of community members. This section of the Plan summarizes the survey results. Notes: • The survey was not conducted in accordance with scientific statistical polling practices. Thus, the results were not necessarily scientifically chart shows the breakdown of 25+ Year Old College Student (63). Another Respondent Profile Respondents themselves 54 people identified themselves as Stay-at- were asked according to to a identify menu Home Parent or 18-24 Year Old College of Student. responses. Multiple responses were allowed. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT PROFILE Working Person 412 conclusive in themselves. Rather, the survey was intended to provide anecdotal data with respect to this planning effort. • Many questions allowed respondents to choose High School Student 270 Retired 66 25+ Year Old College Student 63 more than one response. For these questions the Stay-at-Home Parent 28 total percentage will exceed 100% or the total 18-24 Year Old College Student 26 number of respondents will exceed 755. Other 14 0 Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 100 200 300 400 500 13 July 19, 2010 If working, are you satisfied with your current level and/or type of employment? Employment Information If working, do you work…? Thirty-eight percent of respondents work full-time, 28% work part-time and 23% were unemployed. There was a significant difference between high school students and non-high school students on this question. High school students were nearly evenly split between BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT EMPLOYMENT PROFILE those who responded “yes” and and/or type of employment. Retired 3% PartTime 28% Unempl. 23% BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY EMPLOYMENT SATISFACTION 80% in Hamilton. The next most common locations are Stevensville (63), Darby (52), Florence (26), Corvallis (23), Victor (20) and Missoula (19). Most respondents in the “other” category work in rural, county areas. 68% 60% 51% 50% BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT PRIMARY WORKPLACE Hamilton 317 Stevensville 63 Darby 70% FullTime 38% The vast majority of respondents (317) work “no”. The majority of other respondents (68%) were satisfied with their current level Other 8% Where do you work? 49% 40% 52 Florence 26 Corvallis 23 Other 21 Victor 20 Missoula 19 Conner 18 32% 30% 20% Sula 8 Lone Rock 3 Lolo 3 Pinesdale - 10% - 100 200 300 0% High School Students Yes 14 No Non-High School Students Maas Companies, Inc. 400 Where do you live? Age Profile Most respondents live in Hamilton (256) The median age of respondents was around followed by Darby (117), Corvallis (108) and 36 years of age. That is quite a bit younger Stevensville (106). than the median age (44 years) in the BCP service area. More than one-third of BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT RESIDENCE respondents were in High School (15-19 years of age). Individuals aged 45-64 Hamilton 256 Darby 117 Corvallis 108 Stevensville 106 Victor respondents. Interestingly, the prime college age group, 20-24 year olds, did not participate in large numbers. This group only 58 Florence 26 Conner 25 Missoula 19 Sula 10 Lone Rock 10 Pinesdale 7 Lolo 4 Painted Rocks 1 Grantsdale 1 Ennis 1 Bozeman 1 Other 7 0 comprised another one-third (33%) of comprised 4% of respondents. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT AGE PROFILE 65 or Under over 15 5% 2% 55-64 15% 15-19 35% 45-54 18% 100 200 300 Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 35-44 11% 25-34 10% 20-24 4% 15 July 19, 2010 EDUCATIONAL INTERESTS What types of classes are you interested in? BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT EDUCATIONAL INTEREST 50% This question allowed respondents to select 45% more than one response. Percentages in the 40% chart, therefore, will total more than 100%. 35% 30% Sixty-eight percent of all respondents were 25% interested in college classes. Twenty-four 20% percent of respondents were interested in 24% 15% 13% 15% 10% both for-credit and non-credit classes. Most 5% respondents (44%) expressed an interest in 0% for-credit classes only while 15% expressed 44% 6% Non-credit classes For-credit classes Both Not sure Not interested an interest in non-credit classes only. Nineteen percent were not sure or not BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT CONTINUING EDUCATION INTERESTS interested. Workforce development / professional certification Continuing Education (non-credit) What kinds of continuing education classes interest you? As in the previous question, respondents could select as many responses as they desired. Therefore, percentages will total 56% Developmental / college prep 55% Personal enrichment 44% Other 18% Specialized training for employees of your organization 12% Special events 11% Youth programs 11% more than 100%. More than half (56%) of respondents were interested in development/professional 16 ESL (English as a second language) 2% workforce certification 0% 20% 40% 60% Maas Companies, Inc. classes and a nearly equal percentage (55%) were interested in developmental/college preparation classes. The next most common response was personal enrichment (44%). After this respondents expressed an interest in specialized employee training (12%), special events (11%) and youth programs BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT INTERESTS (11%). Business Workforce Development 43% Microsoft Excel More specifically, what kinds of workforce development/professional certification classes interest you? This question allowed respondents to select 28% Microsoft Word 22% QuickBooks 22% Microsoft PowerPoint 21% multiple answers, therefore, the responses Basic Computers & Windows total more than 100%. 19% EMT (Emergency Medical Technician) 16% The most common response was “business” selected by 43% of respondents. This was followed by a broad range of software training courses for Microsoft Microsoft Access 13% Teacher renewal 13% Office Microsoft Outlook applications and QuickBooks. EMT training Microsoft Certification 11% was identified as an interest by 16% of CNA (Certified Nursing Assistant) 11% respondents. Teacher certification renewal 12% Firefighter 9% was selected by 13%. Certified nursing assistant (11%) and firefighter training (9%) were also selected. Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 Other 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 17 July 19, 2010 Personal Enrichment More specifically, what kinds of personal enrichment classes interest you? This question allowed respondents to select BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY - PERSONAL ENRICHMENT CLASS INTERESTS (HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS) BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY - PERSONAL ENRICHMENT CLASS INTERESTS (NON-HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS) Arts & Crafts 37% Computers 42% about Health & Fitness 37% Arts & Crafts 41% personal enrichment classes, people had a Music 36% Recreation & Outdoors 41% very wide range of interests. These included Recreation & Outdoors Arts & Crafts, Recreation, Health & Fitness, Film & Photography multiple answers. When asked Cooking Cooking, Film & Photography, Computers and many more. There was a significant difference in the responses received from high school 39% 34% Health & Fitness 38% Home & Garden 37% Culture & History 36% 32% Writing 25% Culture & History 23% Film & Photography Foreign Language 23% Writing Computers 14% Book Discussion 32% 29% Music 18% Other 35% Foreign Language 20% Dance students versus non-high school students. For example, older respondents selected 35% Cooking 26% Finance & Property 24% Dance 23% 10% more interests than the high school students Home & Garden 9% Book Discussion 22% did. Even with the differences, among the Finance & Property 8% Genealogy 22% top six responses in each group, four Genealogy 7% Community Lecture responses were shared. These included Arts Community Lecture & Crafts, Health & Fitness, Recreation & Other 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 19% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Outdoors, and Cooking. & Home & Garden, Culture & History, Film & Photography, Cooking and Writing. For Photography, Writing, Foreign Language For high school students, the top seven non-high school students the list was topped and Music. personal enrichment class interests included: by: Computers, Arts & Crafts, Recreation & Arts & Crafts, Health & Fitness, Music, Outdoors, Cooking, Health & Fitness, The following paragraphs analyze their responses separately. 18 Recreation & Outdoors, Film Maas Companies, Inc. The high school students showed a greater interest in personal enrichment classes in BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT GOAL IN ATTENDING / HAVING COLLEGE COURSES (HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS) Music than their counterparts. They showed a much lower interest in classes in Home & Associate degree 37% Garden, Computers, Community Lecture, Finance & Property, Genealogy, Culture & History and Book Discussion. Courses for transfer to a 4-year institution 38% Occupational certificate Educational Goal What is your goal in attending/having college courses? 22% College courses for High School Age Students 18% Other 18% This question allowed multiple responses from participants. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Among high school student respondents, the top goals in attending/having college courses were for an Associate degree and for BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT GOAL IN ATTENDING / HAVING COLLEGE COURSES (NON-HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS) transfer to a 4-year institution. These were followed by a much lower interest in Associate degree 39% occupational certificates and college courses Courses for transfer to a 4-year institution for them while in high school. Among non-high school students there was 36% Occupational certificate 35% almost equal numbers of students interested in four main goals: Associate degree, transfer to a 4-year institution, Other 34% occupational 0% Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 10% 20% 30% 40% 19 July 19, 2010 certificates and Other, primarily personal enrichment classes. Specifically, what kinds of college programs interest you? This question allowed multiple responses from participants. BCPSURVEY RESPONDENT COLLEGE PROGRAM INTERESTS (HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS) Arts and Design respondents, the top college program interests included Arts and Design, Engineering and Related Technologies Mechanics, Repair, and Production Healthcare Professions, Education, Other Culinary school Arts, Engineering and Mechanics. Among non-high school students program interests included Computer and Information Services, Healthcare Professions, 25% Education Culinary Arts high 35% Healthcare Professions student Among Education, As in previous questions, the high school students have a lower interest in programs in Computer and Information Services. This is likely due to their higher level of comfort and experience with technology. 20 19% Arts and Design 25% 19% Culinary Arts 20% 18% General Education 19% Healthcare Support 19% Financial Operations 19% Community and Social Services Office and Administrative Support Agriculture and Resource Management Engineering and Related Technologies Mechanics, Repair, and Production 8% Construction / Trades 8% General Education 7% Protective Services 7% Healthcare Support 7% Financial Operations 6% Construction / Trades 6% Other 0% 5% Legal Professions and Studies 4% Protective Services 4% Transportation and Material Moving 10% 28% 26% 10% Community and Social Services Agriculture and Resource Management Office and Administrative Support Transportation and Material Moving 31% Management 13% Computer and Information Services Legal Professions and Studies 34% Education 20% Management Computer and Information Services Healthcare Professions 23% Management, Arts and Design and Culinary Arts. BCPSURVEY RESPONDENT COLLEGE PROGRAM INTERESTS (NON-HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS) 20% 30% 40% 19% 18% 17% 16% 13% 13% 10% 9% 6% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Maas Companies, Inc. They also had a significantly lower interest in Management Programs, BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT DELIVERY SYSTEM PREFERENCE Financial Operations, Community and Social Services and Office and Administrative Support. The 65% In a classroom 77% high school students had a higher interest in Arts and Design, Engineering and 56% Hybrid (online and classroom) 24% Mechanics programs. This difference may be 46% Online due to the fact that many young people may not know exactly what degree programs they 18% 9% Interactive television 3% need to reach their career goals. How would you like to attend classes? This question allowed 3% 4% Other Delivery System / Schedule for 0% multiple 20% Non-High School Students responses. 40% 60% 80% High School Students All respondents showed a preference for attending classes in a classroom. However, while only 18% of high school students did more important to the non-traditional there was a marked difference between the so. student. groups in terms of taking classes with distance educational modalities. Hybrid classes are popular with non-high school students (56%) but unpopular with high school students (24%). For online classes, 46% of older learners expressed an interest Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 Overall, high school students showed a much stronger preference for classroom learning. This is not surprising given that younger college students are generally looking for a more traditional on-campus college experience, while convenience is 21 July 19, 2010 Where would you like to attend classes? This question allowed for multiple responses. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT EDUCATION LOCATION PREFERENCE 29% At a central campus 63% Responses to this question differed greatly between high school and non-high school student respondents. Sixty-three percent of 77% Where you live 30% 40% At home 19% high school student respondents preferred to attend college “at a central campus”. This was followed by those preferring “where you 3% Other 10% 36% Where you work 7% live” (30%), “at home” (19%) and “where you work” (7%). 0% 20% Non-High School Students 40% 60% 80% High School Students Among non-high school students, 77% prefer to attend college “where you live” followed by “at home” (40%), “where you work” (36%) and “at a central campus” (29%). 22 Maas Companies, Inc. When would you like classes to be offered? This question allowed for BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT TIME OF DAY PREFERENCE multiple responses. 42% Mornings 62% The time of day preference results were fairly predictable. Non-high school students 45% Afternoons 60% prefer attending college classes in the evenings and weekends at much higher rates 78% Evenings 37% than high school student respondents. However, the non-high school students 40% Weekends show a strong preference for afternoon 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% (45%), morning (42%) classes, and weekend classes (40%). Non-High School Students As for seasonal preference, high school High School Students BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY RESPONDENT SEASONAL PREFERENCE students apparently are not ready to give up their summer vacations 64% Winter 52% 57% Spring 42% 47% Summer 24% 42% Mornings 62% 0% Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 23 July 19, 2010 Would you be interested in classes taught in an accelerated or shorter than a full semester format? The vast majority of respondents are interested in accelerated programs. This is not surprising given the nation-wide success of the private universities such as University of Phoenix and National University that feature accelerated programs. They offer programs where students take one class at a time for four weeks. This type of Travel If you attended classes in Hamilton, how would you get there? mile of downtown Hamilton. Another 9% would travel to the classes in a personal live more than 30 miles away. The median vehicle. Only 3% of respondents indicated distance, among respondents, is around 11 that they had no way of getting there on a miles. regular basis. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY TRAVEL TO THE EDUCATIONAL CENTER IN HAMILTON? On foot 6% Other 2% many community college students, however, Bicycle 11% many community colleges do successfully offer 8-week classes. 11% No 24% 89% Yes Ten percent of respondents live within 1 Most respondents (78%) indicated that they arrangement may not be appropriate for BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY INTEREST IN ACCELERATED PROGRAMS How many miles do you live from downtown Hamilton? Personal vehicle 78% I don’t have a way of getting there on a regular basis 3% BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY MILES FROM DOWNTOWN HAMILTON? More than 30 miles 9% 20-30 miles 17% 15-20 miles 17% 10-15 miles 11% 5-10 miles 18% 1-5 miles 19% Less than 1 mile 10% 0% 10% 20% 76% 0% 50% Non-High School Students 100% High School Students 24 Maas Companies, Inc. Would you travel to Missoula for college classes? BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY WOULD YOU TRAVEL TO MISSOULA FOR CLASSES? Overall, 35% of respondents indicated that they would be willing to travel to Missoula for college classes. The other 65% said that 26% Yes 49% they would not. The responses differed amount the various groups. A higher percentage of responded in high the school affirmative students same ones who would prefer to be on a campus. They are 51% (49%). However, many of these respondents are the main 74% No/Maybe 0% 20% 40% Non-High School Students 60% 80% High School Students also disproportionately the same people who lack transportation. The conclusion drawn from the survey is that the actual percentage of respondents BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY WOULD YOU TRAVEL TO MISSOULA FOR CLASSES? (ALL RESPONDENTS) who would in fact take classes in Missoula and commute to them, is far lower than 35%. Yes 35% No/ Maybe 65% Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 25 July 19, 2010 Would you move to attend college classes? BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY WOULD YOU MOVE TO ATTEND COLLEGE CLASSES? Sixty-one percent of high school student respondents say they would move to attend 6% Yes college classes versus 23% who said they 61% 87% No 23% would not. Among the non-high school student respondents, 87% said they would Maybe, but only for a short time (several weeks or months) not move versus only 6% who said they 8% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% would. Non-High School Students High School Students Communication & Technology Which of the following types of communication do you generally use? This question allowed for The most significant differences in multiple responses. Among high school student respondents the top methods of communication are cell phone (80%), texting (76%), face-to-face (75%), email (53%) and social networking (42%). Among non-high school student respondents the top methods of communication are email (90%), cell phone (84%), face-to-face (78%), land line (51%) and texting (33%). communication between the two groups are in their use of email, BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY HOW DO YOU COMMUNICATE? 90% Email 53% texting, land line phones and, to a lesser extent, networking. online Non-high social Cell phone school Face-to-face student respondents prefer email 84% 80% 78% 75% 51% Land line 29% (+37 percentage points) and land lines (+22 percentage points). High Texting 43% school students prefer texting (+33 Online social network (Facebook, etc) 33% 42% percentage points) and online social Other 76% 3% 5% networking (+9 percentage points). 0% 20% Non-High School Students 26 40% 60% 80% 100% High School Students Maas Companies, Inc. Do you own or have frequent access to a computer and printer? Do you have access to the internet from home? If you do have access to the internet, what kind of access do you have? Over 95% of respondents have frequent The majority of respondents (88%) indicated Seventy-nine percent of those with internet access to a computer. A smaller percentage that they have access to the internet from have high speed access (“DSL, satellite, have frequent access to a printer – 56% for home. Twelve percent do not. There was cable, other”). Twelve percent of those with high school student respondents, 69% for little difference among the respondent internet the remainder of respondents. groups. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY COMPUTER ACCESS Frequent access to a printer BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY INTERNET ACCESS FROM HOME 69% are on dial-up connections. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SURVEY INTERNET ACCESS FROM HOME Other 9% Dial-up 12% 56% No 12% 98% Frequent access to a computer Highspeed 79% 95% 0% 20%40%60%80%100% Non-High School Students Yes 88% High School Students Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 27 July 19, 2010 External Environmental Scan OVERVIEW “effective service area” for the Bitterroot When analyzing the external environment of College Program. the Bitterroot College Program one must first determine the effective service area for the educational center. In today’s The map shows Ravalli County, in dark green. educational environment, students will travel to the College or educational center that is most convenient in terms of getting there, classes offered, class schedule and quality of the educational experience among other variables. For the purposes of the Bitterroot College Program, several possible service areas were analyzed. These included circular areas with the educational unit at the center, various drive-time regions and the whole of Ravalli County. These areas did not vary much in terms of the demographic makeup of the population they encompassed. The geographical region that made the most sense was determined to be Ravalli County. For the purposes of this Plan, the 45 minute drive-time region will be considered the 28 Source: ESRI Maas Companies, Inc. SERVICE AREA DEMOGRAPHICS The following sections describe the demographics of Ravalli County (the BCP service area) population. For context, these demographics are compared to those for the State and the Nation. In 2009, the County population was 41,032 with a median age of 43.8. The population is growing at an annual rate of 1.17%, a bit faster than the growth rates for the state of Montana (0.82%) and for the Nation (0.91%). The number of households, families and owner households in the service area are also projected to grow faster than at the State level. Median household income, however, is projected to grow at 0.26%, a rate just under one-third that of the State (0.79%) and the Nation (0.80%). Income Analysis Household income in the service area is BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SERVICE AREA (RAVALLI COUNTY) DEMOGRAPHIC AND INCOME PROFILE 2000-2009 Summary Population Households Families Average Household Size Owner Occupied Housing Units Renter Occupied Housing Units Median Age 2000 36,070 14,289 10,182 2.48 10,811 3,478 41.0 2009 41,032 16,450 11,396 2.46 12,499 3,951 43.8 2014 43,495 17,507 11,924 2.45 13,192 4,315 44.9 County 1.17% 1.25% 0.91% 1.09% 0.26% State 0.82% 0.91% 0.50% 0.67% 0.79% Nation 0.91% 0.94% 0.74% 1.19% 0.80% 2000 Number Percent 2,587 18.1% 2,604 18.3% 2,496 17.5% 2,696 18.9% 2,210 15.5% 710 5.0% 608 4.3% 131 0.9% 217 1.5% 2009 Number Percent 2,235 13.6% 2,425 14.7% 2,699 16.4% 3,109 18.9% 3,616 22.0% 1,002 6.1% 867 5.3% 215 1.3% 282 1.7% Number 2,406 2,344 2,944 3,517 3,709 1,086 960 229 312 $32,359 $44,966 $17,935 $38,566 $50,426 $20,373 $39,069 $51,555 $20,919 Trends: 2009-2014 Annual Rate Population Households Families Owner Households Median Household Income Households by Income < $15,000 $15,000 - $24,999 $25,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000+ Median Household Income Average Household Income Per Capita Income 2014 Percent 13.7% 13.4% 16.8% 20.1% 21.2% 6.2% 5.5% 1.3% 1.8% Source: ESRI lower than that for the State and for the Nation. The service area population has a Nation. Per capita income in the service area median household income of $38,566 versus is $20,373 versus $21,013 for the State and $40,864 for Montana and $54,719 for the $27,277 for the Nation. Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 29 July 19, 2010 BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SERVICE AREA (45 MINUTE DRIVE-TIME) AGE AND ETHNICITY PROFILE 2000-2009 Age Profile The service area has a relatively older population and is aging. As mentioned 2000 Population by Age 2009 Number Percent Number 2014 Percent Number Percent previously, the service area’s 2009 median Age 0 - 4 2,073 5.7% 2,294 5.6% 2,370 5.4% age was 43.8 years old. This is 4.4 years older Age 5 - 9 2,477 6.9% 2,523 6.1% 2,643 6.1% than the median age for the state of Age 10 - 14 2,863 7.9% 2,872 7.0% 3,022 6.9% Montana (39.4 years). The median age in the Age 15 - 19 2,662 7.4% 2,954 7.2% 2,916 6.7% Age 20 - 24 1,379 3.8% 1,825 4.4% 1,898 4.4% Age 25 - 34 3,570 9.9% 3,650 8.9% 4,115 9.5% Age 35 - 44 5,340 14.8% 5,055 12.3% 4,824 11.1% Age 45 - 54 5,854 16.2% 7,001 17.1% 6,795 15.6% Age 55 - 64 4,263 11.8% 6,380 15.5% 7,243 16.7% Age 65 - 74 2,981 8.3% 3,550 8.7% 4,587 10.5% Age 75 - 84 1,949 5.4% 2,026 4.9% 2,139 4.9% 659 1.8% 902 2.2% 943 2.2% Nation is 36.9 years. By the year 2014, the median age in the service area is projected to increase to 44.9. Looking forward to the year 2014, there will be shifts in several of the key age groups in the service area. These shifts are consistent Age 85+ with shifts that will be seen in the Statewide population. The 15-19 year old age group 2000 will actually decrease slightly over the next Race and Ethnicity five years, from 2,954 to 2,916 individuals but will decrease more dramatically as a proportion of the overall population (from 7.2% to 6.7%). The 20-24 year old segment 2009 2014 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 34,883 96.7% 39,458 96.2% 41,680 95.8% Black Alone 49 0.1% 70 0.2% 84 0.2% American Indian Alone 319 0.9% 424 1.0% 487 1.1% Asian Alone 108 0.3% 157 0.4% 189 0.4% 35 0.1% 32 0.1% 32 0.1% Pacific Islander Alone will grow slightly in raw numbers (from Some Other Race Alone 158 0.4% 235 0.6% 287 0.7% 1,825 to 1,898) but will stay constant in its Two or More Races 518 1.4% 656 1.6% 736 1.7% Hispanic Origin (Any Race)* 678 1.9% 1,030 2.5% 1,270 2.9% percentage of the overall population (4.4%). Source: ESRI- accessed on 2/08/10 * People of Hispanic Origin may be of any race. Therefore, totals in this section may exceed 100%. 30 Maas Companies, Inc. Once again, these are consistent with growth through 2014 are 65-74 year olds also one of the fastest growing age segments Statewide trends for these age segments. (29.2% growth), 55-64 year olds (13.5% in the County. This segment is expected to growth) and 25-34 year olds (12.7% growth). grow by 12.7% over the next 5 years adding In addition to the aging of the baby 465 more people. The accompanying graph shows the change in the service area age profile from 2009 to boomers, the data shows a significant 2014. increase of people over 55 moving to the Declines The age segments showing the largest projected declines will be 35-44 year olds (4.6%) and 45-54 year olds (2.9%). Bitterroot Valley. This trend is not unique to the Valley. It is a tend observed in the Statewide data as well. The age segments that will show the greatest When the service area age profile is examined together with the student age profile at the BCP, one RAVALLI COUNTY AGE SEGMENTATION PROFILE can draw some 8,000 conclusions about likely 7,000 future enrollment growth. People 6,000 5,000 In 4,000 Environmental Scan, the 3,000 student 2,000 the age profile portion of the current 0 student body (29%) at the BCP are between 25 and 34 years of age. This is 2009 2014 Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 and is projected to grow by 4.0% (73 people) over the next five years. age segments, there is (and will continue to be) a growing need for adult educational programs in the service population requires educational opportunities development and area. This postsecondary in personal workforce enrichment classes. Internal showed that the largest 1,000 comprises 27% of the student population With the growth in these younger and older Potential Impact on Enrollment Growth Gains Countywide, the 20-24 year old age segment Race Ethnicity Profile The service area population is 96.2% White. The rest of the population is comprised of Hispanics (2.5%), Native Americans (1.0%), Asian (0.4%), African American (0.2%) and Pacific Islander (0.1%). Others described themselves as Some other Race (0.6%) and Two or More Races (1.6%). 31 July 19, 2010 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT The largest portion of the County (service who have completed high school but lack a The following chart shows the educational area) population (32.9%) have a high school college degree. In the County, there are attainment for people 25 years of age and diploma only. This group is followed by 9,398 people with a high school diploma older in Ravalli County. For comparison, the those with some college, no degree (25.7%), only and 7,341 people with some college and chart also shows educational attainment for bachelor’s degree (17.2%), 9th-12th grade, no no degree. These two groups total 58.6% of the state of Montana and for the Nation as a diploma the County population (16,739 individuals) whole. degree (7.5%), and associate degree (7.0%). BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM SERVICE AREA ECUATIONAL ATTAINMENT (OVER 25 YEARS OF AGE) (7.8%), graduate/professional Looking at the portion of the and are prime candidates for community college classes. population with any post-secondary It is difficult to definitively determine the 35% degree, the service area population direction of causation, but it seems likely 30% (31.7%) is below the State (34.5%) that the high proportion of service area 25% and Nation (34.0%). In Associate residents in the two categories just discussed, and Bachelor’s Degree attainment, may be a result of an historical lack of 20% the service area (24.2%) is the same postsecondary educational opportunities in 15% as the Nation as a whole and lags the area. Without moving, or commuting a 10% behind the State (26.3%). Only great distance, residents of the Bitterroot 9.8% of the service area population Valley lacks academic career. One wonders how this data 5% 0% a high school diploma may will and 16.2% for the Nation. postsecondary offerings by the BCP. the service with discontinue compared with 10% for the State Interestingly, change simply the growth their in area population has a higher potion of its population (58.6%) than the State (55.5%) and Nation (49.7%) Ravalli 32 MT USA Maas Companies, Inc. WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOCAL REGION According to the Montana Department of Labor and Industry, Montana’s seasonallyadjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 7.1% from March to April of 2010. Over the same period, the National unemployment rate increased from 9.7% to 9.9%. RAVALLI COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT PROFILE (2000-2009) 10% The graph illustrates the unemployment Sources of Employment history for Ravalli County, neighboring Nearly half (45.9%) of all employment in Missoula County, Montana, and the United Ravalli County is in the services sector. This States. Over the past 19 years, the includes all services not included in other unemployment rate5 in Ravalli County has industry sectors. The next largest sector was been consistently higher than those of retail trade (12.3%) followed by construction Missoula County (by an average of 1.8 (10.6%), agriculture and mining (7.0%), percentage points) and of the State as a manufacturing (6.0%) and finance, insurance whole (by an average of 1.3 percentage & real estate (5.9%). points). Since 2006, the unemployment rate in Ravalli County has more than doubled, from 4.0% to 8.4%. 9% 8% BCP SERVICE AREA - INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT 2009 7% Services 45.9% Retail Trade 6% 12.3% Construction 5% 10.6% Agriculture/ Mining 4% 3% Ravalli County 2% 1% MT Manufacturing 6.0% Finance/ Insurance/ Real Estate 5.9% Public Administration 3.8% Transportation/ Utilities 3.7% Missoula County USA 0% Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 7.0% Wholesale Trade 3.2% Information 1.5% 5 Unemployment rate data obtained from the Montana Department of Labor & Industry 0% 5% May 10% (www.ourfactsyourfuture.org – accessed on 21, 2010), annual data, not seasonally adjusted. 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 33 July 19, 2010 Occupation Opportunities The Montana Department of Labor and Industry produces Statewide job projection data from the year 2008 through 2018. This data is developed by region. For the purposes of this report, and given the Bitterroot College Program’s geographic location, data for the northwest region (Region 1 on the map) was analyzed. It is important to realize however, that there may be significant variations in occupation data (such as job openings and compensation) between the 7 counties that comprise Region 1. The consulting team analyzed the top 200 occupations by number of annual openings projected through the year 2018. These 200 occupations are projected to account for 3,745 job openings in the northwest region annually. 34 Maas Companies, Inc. Required Training Levels FUTURE JOB OPENINGS BY REQUIRED TRAINING LEVEL MONTANA NORTHWEST REGION (2008 - 2018) The data includes required training levels for Training OCCUPATIONS SALARY JOB OPENINGS each of the occupations6. The following Short-Term On-the-Job Training 42 $ 27,893 1,791 table shows the breakdown among these 200 Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training 35 $ 33,348 657 occupations by required training level. The Long-Term On-the-Job Training 20 $ 35,594 257 Postsecondary Vocational Award 16 $ 36,139 208 Work Experience in a Related Occupation 18 $ 39,225 194 Associate Degree 15 $ 39,969 167 Bachelor's Degree largest group of the occupations require only short or moderate on-the-job training. 57.5% of the occupations do not require a 30 $ 43,217 270 education7. Master's Degree 7 $ 45,100 45 These are also the lower paying jobs – Doctoral degree 1 $ 47,970 4 Bachelor's Degree or Higher and Some Work Experience 1 $ 58,972 56 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience 6 $ 65,972 36 First Professional Degree 9 $ 80,323 60 200 $ 38,861 3,745 degree or any postsecondary predominantly low skilled service sector jobs. Grand Total (Weighted Average Compensation) Compensation by Training Level As illustrated in the graph, compensation is directly correlated with the level of training required. Weighted by the number of projected job openings, the average compensation for jobs requiring only shortterm on-the-job training is $27,893. The jobs 6 7 Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry, United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, analysis by Maas Companies. FUTURE JOB OPENING MEDIAN COMPENSATION BY REQUIRED TRAINING LEVEL - MONTANA NORTHWEST REGION (2008 - 2018) First Professional Degree $80,323 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work… $65,972 Bachelor's Degree or Higher and Some… $58,972 Doctoral degree $47,970 Master's Degree $45,100 Bachelor's Degree $43,217 Associate Degree $39,969 These training levels are determined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and are merely guidelines or “best guesses”. Required training levels vary geographically and from employer to employer. Work Experience in a Related Occupation $39,225 This does not include the very real need for basic skills for many people entering the workforce, even for jobs requiring only on-the-job training. Short-Term On-the-Job Training Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 Postsecondary Vocational Award $36,139 Long-Term On-the-Job Training $35,594 Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training $33,348 $27,893 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 35 July 19, 2010 requiring moderate-term on-the-job training there are 2,357 people 25 years of age or As mentioned previously, the compensation average $33,348 per year, and jobs requiring older who lack a high school diploma and numbers provided in this section are median long-term average may require GED programs. Additionally, of incomes as determined, regionally, by the $35,594 per year. The average compensation the nearly 14,000 people 25 years of age or U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average for the jobs requiring any postsecondary older who have a high school diploma but compensation on this list is $24,172. For award is $47,243. More dramatic is the lack any postsecondary award, many will each occupation, there is a range of pay compensation for jobs requiring at least an require educational/training programs to levels. It is part of the mission of the Associate Degree. These jobs had an average help postsecondary Montana University System to position its compensation of $49,818. education or, simply, to enter the workforce. students so they are in the upper range of on-the-job $32,666 training $49,818 them succeed in The table on the following page lists the 25 occupations with the highest number of projected future job openings in the northwest region (Region 1) of Montana through the year 2018. The table includes the level of employment in 2008 as well as the projected level of employment in 2018, compensation for a given occupation. Therefore, although the occupations with the most projected job openings include quite a few with low levels of compensation, successful BCP students may be the employees at the higher end of the compensation range for their occupation. total annual openings, and estimated median annual salary. The final column contains a UM-COT program that may help position a While it is abundantly clear that in general, higher educational attainment leads to higher compensation, the Bitterroot worker favorably for the occupation in question. College Program must also serve students requiring developmental programs. In the service area, 36 Maas Companies, Inc. PROJECTED FUTURE JOB OPENINGS – NORTHWEST REGION OF MONTANA (2008 - 2018) Occupation Retail Salespersons 2008 EMPLOYMENT 2018 EMPLOYMENT TOTAL ANNUAL OPENINGS 6,092 7,006 279 MEDIAN ANNUAL SALARY $19,715 UM – COT TRAINING AVAILABILITY Workforce Development Courses Waiters and Waitresses 2,951 3,279 193 $15,911 Workforce Development Courses Cashiers 3,479 3,690 186 $17,838 Workforce Development Courses Customer Service Representatives 2,133 2,646 110 $29,873 Customer Relations Certificate Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 3,676 4,199 109 $28,785 Accounting Technology AAS Janitors & Cleaners 2,525 2,948 90 $22,211 Building Maintenance Certificate Food Preparation Workers 1,690 1,937 83 $18,355 Culinary Arts Certificate or AAS* Registered Nurses 2,218 2,665 81 $56,513 Registered Nursing AS Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers 2,403 2,739 80 $16,419 Culinary Arts Certificate or AAS* Bartenders 1,476 1,686 74 $16,803 Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 3,549 3,638 65 $24,356 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1,788 2,045 60 $18,013 Personal and Home Care Aides 1,438 1,769 57 $18,869 Administrative Management AAS Certified Nursing Assistant General and Operations Managers 1,857 1,969 56 $58,972 Transfer AA or AS Carpenters 2,447 2,648 53 $31,938 Carpentry Certificate or AAS Cooks, Restaurant 1,276 1,445 52 $21,657 Culinary Arts Certificate or AAS* Office Clerks, General 1,617 1,841 51 $23,218 Workforce Development Courses Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 1,792 1,946 47 $33,362 CDL and Heavy Equipment Operator Building Maintenance Certificate Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 1,417 1,698 47 $23,704 Laborers & Freight, Stock, and Material Movers 1,387 1,419 47 $23,527 Child Care Workers Executive Secretaries and Admin. Assistants Tellers First-Line Supervisors/Mgrs. of Retail Sales Wrkrs Receptionists and Information Clerks TOTAL (WITH AVERAGE COMPENSATION) 918 1,120 46 $18,043 Early Childhood Education AAS** 1,570 1,772 45 $33,753 Administrative Management AAS 830 904 43 $22,671 Workforce Development Courses 1,495 1,591 41 $28,869 Mgmt/Sales and Marketing Certificate 891 1,070 40 $21,998 Workforce Development Courses 52,915 59,670 2,035 $24,172 Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry, Research & Analysis Bureau, www.ourfactsyourfuture.org, accessed on May 21, 2010, analysis by Maas Companies * AAS is in Food Service Management ** Offered through partnership with Montana Western Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 37 July 19, 2010 CAPACITIES FOR ENROLLMENT GROWTH The prospects for growth at the Bitterroot College Program are excellent. Several criteria were examined. Some of these criteria were found to have a positive impact on the growth of the Program, others were found to have a negative or neutral effect. The following section summarizes the analysis of the various growth criteria. impact on future enrollment growth. The these two categories are prime candidates for population growth that will occur in the postsecondary education. County among 25-34 year olds will contribute significantly to enrollment growth in the near future. Growth in the County population 55 years of age and older may also contribute particularly if to enrollment appropriate growth personal enrichment course offerings are developed. Overall population growth for the County will not be a significant driver in enrollment growth for the Bitterroot College Program. The projected population growth for the miles each way) or, for some career paths, they can study online. Essentially, there simply are no local alternatives, especially for contribute positively to enrollment growth at need that was, to a very large extent, not the BCP. Some of these characteristics being met. characteristics follow. translates to approximately 400 additional area population, 33.7% have a high school residents in the County per year. Though it diploma as their highest educational degree. is higher than that of the State and the This is higher than the State (32%) and the Nation, it is not an exceptionally high rate of Nation (29.8%). There is also a large portion growth. of the population (25.1%) with some college 38 They can move, they can commute (50+ great opportunity for the BCP as it is filling a population Educational Attainment – Of the service population however, will have a positive students have very limited local choices. will Several service area is just over 1% per year. This Shifts in the age segmentation of the In the Bitterroot Valley, would-be college community college opportunities. This is a Population Characteristics Population Growth / Shifts Lack of competition but no degree. This compares with the State (23.5%) and the Nation (19.9%). People in Maas Companies, Inc. Participation Rate BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM STUDENT PARTICIPATION RATE (FALL 2009) Overview COLLEGE Participation rate is a measure of how many people in a geographical area attend an LOCATION SERVICE AREA POPULATION* SPR 74 41,032 1.8 1,406 147,565 9.5 507 51,139 9.9 2,105 123,403 17.1 HEADCOUNT Bitterroot College Program Hamilton MSU Billings COT Billings UM Montana Tech COT Butte in Hamilton. With a service area population UM Missoula COT Missoula of 41,032 this translates to a student Miles Community College Miles City 524 11,224 46.7 Dawson Community College Glendive 441 9,046 48.8 the table. MSU Great Falls COT Great Falls 2,451 84,198 29.1 Other Campuses UM Helena COT Helena 1,378 68,882 20.0 The comparison with these colleges is not Flathead Valley Community College Kalispell 2,501 95,300 26.2 State-wide (Two-Year Institutions) Total 11,313 973,235 11.6 institution per 1,000 residents. Currently there are 74 individuals attending at least one class at the Bitterroot College Program participation rate (SPR) of 1.8. Other Montana two-year colleges are also listed in an entirely fair one. Some of the other colleges are in denser, more populated areas. All of the other colleges are more established and have more comprehensive Source: ESRI, Community College Review (www.communitycollegreview.com), analysis by Maas Companies * The service area for each institution was assumed to be a circular geographical area with a 30 mile radius. For the Bitterroot College Program the Service area is Ravalli County. ** Does not include tribal colleges course offerings. Three of the schools Colleges in Miles City and Glendive). Even Due to the small size of the service area (COTs in Billings, Butte, and Missoula) are with the population and the institution, the campuses embedded within 4-year universities, and comparison is valuable as it provides an idea that provide the most relevant comparisons five of the schools offer on-campus housing of what is currently possible in two-year are MSU Great Falls COT, UM Helena for two-year students (COTs in Billings, postsecondary education in Montana. COT and Flathead Valley Community Butte, and Missoula and Community Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 these special conditions, College. These are stand alone community 39 July 19, 2010 colleges that are not embedded in a larger four-year campus. These campuses have SPRs of 29.1, 20.0 and 26.2 respectively8. Considerations The Bitterroot College Program is an educational center and not a full-fledged college. It is also a relatively new program in an area that has not previously had its own community college. It also offers a limited selection of courses for students. As such, its participation rate will be expected to be lower than some of its counterparts. The consulting team feels that with greater course offerings, programs that respond to community needs, appropriate outreach, good facilities and a successful track record the Bitterroot College Program should be able to achieve an SPR similar to those of MSU Great Falls COT, UM Helena COT and Flathead Valley College by the year 2020. 8 The service area for each institution was assumed to be a circular geographical area with a 30 mile radius. 40 Maas Companies, Inc. Future Enrollment Growth appropriate Whether the BCP reaches 500 students in Overview course offerings, the average student’s the year 2016 or 2018 is not the most critical The following section provides an estimate course load will increase from the piece of information. What is important is of enrollment growth out to the year 2025. current level (5.9 units) to 10 units by that the BCP will achieve a headcount of 500 The forecast is based on all of the the year 2025. students 2. With ENROLLMENT FORECAST information presented in this broad-based and Plan. 3. The County’s population growth rate Necessarily, some assumptions have been will remain at approximately 1.17% per made. These assumptions are rooted in the year through 2025. and long-range planning for facilities, funding and staffing must be put in place in time. experience of the consulting team, having worked with dozens of community colleges and many new education centers like the Bitterroot College Program. Forecast It is difficult to predict events even 3-5 years into the future. This forecast looks all the way out to the year 2025. This kind of long- Assumptions range forecast, however difficult, is useful as 1. The student participation rate will it provides a benchmark for planning. This increase over time as the programmatic forecast should be reexamined every few offerings grow. The BCP will, over time, years and adjusted according to new achieve a student participation rate of information. 25 (25 of every 1,000 residents will take at least one course at the campus). The precise year for reaching each level of student headcount and FTE is not as important as using the forecast to develop long-range plans for facilities and programs. Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 41 July 19, 2010 The growth forecast is provided in the following table. BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM ENROLLMENT AND WSCH FORECAST (2010-2025) YEAR RAVALLI COUNTY POPULATION SPR The table shows, on an annual basis through 2010 41,512 1.8 74 5.9 439.0 29.3 the year 2025, the population for Ravalli 2011 41,998 3.2 134 6.2 835.2 55.7 2012 42,489 4.5 191 6.5 1,240.5 82.7 2013 42,986 6.0 258 6.8 1,743.8 116.3 2014 43,489 7.7 335 7.0 2,355.6 157.0 2015 43,998 10.0 440 7.3 3,215.3 214.4 County, the projected levels of student participation rate, unduplicated headcount, average student load. From this data, WSCH (weekly student contact hours) and FTES HEADCOUNT AVE LOAD WSCH FTES 2016 44,513 12.0 534 7.6 4,049.5 270.0 (full-time equivalent students) are calculated. 2017 45,034 14.0 630 7.9 4,952.0 330.1 WSCH and FTES are multiples of each 2018 45,560 16.0 729 8.1 5,924.9 395.0 other. A full-time equivalent student is one 2019 46,094 18.0 830 8.4 6,970.3 464.7 student who takes a course load of 15 units 2020 46,633 20.0 933 8.7 8,090.3 539.4 for a year (two semesters). 2021 47,178 21.0 991 8.9 8,865.0 591.0 2022 47,730 22.0 1,050 9.2 9,682.9 645.5 The forecast shows that unduplicated 2023 48,289 23.0 1,111 9.5 10,545.0 703.0 student headcount will grow from 74 in the 2024 48,854 24.0 1,172 9.8 11,452.7 763.5 year 2010, to 440 by 2015 and 1,236 by 2025 49,425 25.0 1,236 10.0 12,407.2 827.1 2025. At the same time, as course offerings grow at the BCP, students will increase their This will grow to 7.3 units by 2015 and 10.0 The following sections will take this forecast average course load. Currently, the average units by 2025. The resulting levels of WSCH and apply it to the program of instruction course load for BCP students is 5.9 units. and FTES are 3,215.3 and 214.4 in 2015 and and the resultant space needs. 12,407.2 and 827.1 in 2025. 42 Maas Companies, Inc. Future Program of Instruction OVERVIEW • Demographic trends in the County The proposed future program of instruction As the enrollment at the BCP grows, so • The Internal Environmental Scan does not provide “everything for everyone”. must the program of instruction (course • Results from the community survey In an educational center such as the offerings). Likewise, as the program of • Occupations with the most future job openings in the region Bitterroot • General education / transfer requirements • Data from the Maas Database (information from more than 100 educational master plans for community colleges) instruction expands, enrollment will grow. The key for the BCP is to coordinate the growth in these two areas. The growth forecast in the previous section is a best guess of the numbers of students who will attend classes at the BCP assuming a certain range of course offerings. This growth forecast, coupled with the projected program of instruction provided in this section, provides a framework for this coordination. The plan may be adjusted from time to time but it is critical to The future program of instruction is organized by TOP Code (Taxonomy of The consulting team incorporated several data sources and analyses in developing the proposed program of instruction. These Division. This organization of disciplines is used in educational planning for several purposes. serving a relatively small population, this is not realistic. The program was designed to achieve a balance between the needs and desires of the local population. The program as general education classes for transfer to a 4-year college and career technical (vocational) programs. The 4900 TOP code includes basic skills (college preperatory) classes in a variety of interdisciplinary programs. • It provides a standard system by which different educational institutions and/or campuses can be compared. The program will also represent a mix of • It facilitates the calculation of space needs for laboratory space. recommended • It allows for flexibility in specific course development within the broader categories. undersand that limiting the course offerings will curtail some enrollment growth. Instructional Program, includes personal enrichment classes as well Future Program of Instruction Programs) College credit and non-credit that classes. non-credit It is classes comprise 20% of all class sections. included: Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 43 July 19, 2010 The future instruction program includes of BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM – PROJECTED PROGRAM OF INSTRUCTION BY TOP CODE - 2020 & 2025 the 2015 benchmark years of 2015 and 2025. It also includes TOP CODE DIVISION a breakdown between lecture and labortory delivery methods. This will become more critical in the SEC WSCH FTES 2025 LEC FTES LAB FTES SEC WSCH FTES LEC FTES LAB FTES Environmental Sciences & Tech 1 101 6.7 1.8 1.8 3 315 21.0 5.5 5.5 Biological Sciences 2 203 13.5 3.7 3.7 6 633 42.2 11.0 11.1 Business and Management 2 96 6.4 2.8 0.7 5 248 16.5 6.9 1.7 Media and Communications 1 36 2.4 1.3 - 5 193 12.9 6.7 - following section that quantifies Information Technology 4 247 16.5 6.7 2.3 14 897 59.8 23.4 7.9 future academic space needs. Education 6 228 15.2 4.1 4.1 22 868 57.9 15.2 15.2 Engineering and Industrial Tech 1 77 5.1 1.2 1.6 12 962 64.1 25.2 8.4 Fine and Applied Arts 3 133 8.9 2.9 1.9 14 645 43.0 13.5 9.0 Foreign Language 2 137 9.1 3.2 1.8 14 993 66.2 22.3 12.3 Health 1 28 1.8 0.9 0.1 7 200 13.4 6.3 0.7 Family and Consumer Sci. 2 41 2.8 1.0 0.5 9 193 12.9 5.1 1.7 Humanities 6 344 22.9 11.2 1.3 22 1,308 87.2 41.0 4.7 Mathematics 6 506 33.8 18.4 - 21 2,051 136.7 71.6 - Physical Sciences 1 62 4.2 1.5 0.8 6 401 26.7 9.3 4.7 Psychology 4 311 20.7 11.3 - 10 809 54.0 28.3 - Public and Protective Svcs 2 101 6.7 1.8 1.8 8 439 29.3 7.7 7.7 Social Sciences 3 116 7.7 4.2 - 8 321 21.4 11.2 - Interdisciplinary Studies 8 448 29.9 9.8 6.5 16 931 62.1 19.5 13.0 55 3,216 214.4 87.8 28.9 202 12,407 827.1 329.8 103.6 TOTAL 44 Maas Companies, Inc. Future Space Needs OVERVIEW All space planning data are keyed to the Proposed Student Support Services through 2025 program of instruction and its relative It is anticipated that all student support growth or decline for the future. This is services will be available to students what drives the institution, including the attending the Bitterroot College Program. need for all space required for support Such services, which include all services services. The space needs are not a “wish typically identified for the matriculation of list” of facilities. They are based upon the students, will be provided on a, “phased in experience of a multitude of two-year basis”, over the next 15-years as the student institutions and their space needs specific to enrollment increases in the service area. each discipline and delivery system. Technology will provide the critical path for The tables that follow depict projected space needs for the academic program of instruction at the Bitterroot College Program for the benchmark years of 2015 and 2025. The tables present the key elements that define the future program of instruction and identify the assignable (usable) square feet (ASF) that will be required to meet the academic space demands. Bitterroot College Program Needs Assessment - 2010 such services as an integral part of the student database and related software systems at The University of Montana. Proposed Space Allocation Given the instructional program proposed in the previous section of this Plan, and a plan for the incremental development of support services, the following allocation of space has been developed for the Bitterroot College Program. Note: Some classes at the BCP will be delivered through online, hybrid or other distance educational modalities. It is assumed in the following space quantification that such programs will still require some on-campus space, but less than for traditional classes. Staffing for support services will also be According to the proposal, the BCP will provided in an incremental manner with a require a total of 26,292 assignable square level of services similar to that provided at feet of space by 2015 (or when the Program the Missoula campus. reaches FTES of 214). The BCP will require 50,580 ASF by the year 2025 (or when the Program reaches FTES of 827). 45 July 19, 2010 BITTERROOT COLLEGE PROGRAM FUTURE SPACE NEEDS (2015 AND 2015) SPACE CATEGORY ASF 2015 ASF 2025 CLASSROOM 6,102 12,204 LABORATORY 7,357 14,714 OFFICE/CONFERENCE 3,346 6,692 LIBRARY 2,103 4,206 PHYS ED (INDOOR) 2,000 2,000 AV/TV 743 1,486 CLINIC/DEMONSTRATION 808 1,616 ASSEMBLY/EXHIBITION 634 1,268 FOOD SERVICE 509 1,018 LOUNGE/LOUNGE SERVICE 107 214 MERCHANDISING 507 1,014 MEETING/RECREATION 325 650 DATA PROCESSING/COMP 243 486 1,508 2,852 0 160 26,292 50,580 PHYSICAL PLANT HEALTH SERVICES Total * All figures are in assignable square feet. 46 Maas Companies, Inc.