RAY D. NELSON
Marriott School, Brigham Young University
ray_nelson@byu.edu
801-422-6126
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Associate Professor
Romney Institute of Public Management, Marriott School at Brigham Young University, 1985Present
Assistant Professor and Economist
Department of Agricultural Economics and Giannini Foundation, University of California, Davis,
1981-1985
Board of Directors
Bonneville Bank, Provo, Utah, 1995-2012
Member
Council of Economic Advisors, State of Utah, 1999-2004
Tax Policy Advisor
Governor Olene Walker, 2003-2004
Consultant
Utah Legislature Fiscal Analyst and BJO Capital Management, 1992-2003
Utah Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel, 2005-Present
AWARDS
Marriott School Service Award, 2008
Excellence in Public Service Award, Utah Taxpayers Association, 2007
Merrill J Bateman Student Choice Award, 2005
Business Management Outstanding Teacher, 2005
MBA Finance Faculty of Excellence, 2000-2001
MBA Teaching Excellence Awards, Classes of 1995, 1996, 1997
William C. Brown BYU Teaching Award, 1993
Exxon Outstanding Teaching Award, Marriott School of Management 1991
EDUCATION
Ph.D.
M.S.
M.A.
B.A.
Agricultural and Resource Economics
University of California, Berkeley, 1981
Agricultural and Resource Economics
University of California, Berkeley, 1978
Applied Statistics
University of California, Berkeley, 1978
Economics (Summa Cum Laude)
Brigham Young University, 1975
REFEREED PUBLICATIONS
“The Effect of Local Option Sales Taxes on Local Sales.” Public Finance Review.
38(November 2010): 659-681. Co-authored with Gary Cornia, Scott Grimshaw, and Larry
Walters.
“Evidence on Forecasting Time Series with Support-Vector Machines.” Journal of Operational
Research Society. 57(September 2006): 1053-1063. Co-authored with James V. Hansen and
James B. McDonald.
“Fiscal Planning, Budgeting, and Rebudgeting Using Revenue Semaphores”. Public
Administration Review. 64/2 (March-April 2004): 164-179. Co-authored with Gary Cornia and
Andrea Wilko.
“Time-Series Analysis with Neural Networks and ARIMA-Neural Network Hybrids.” Journal of
Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence. 15/3(July-September 2003): 315-330. Coauthored with James V. Hansen.
“Forecasting and Recombining Time Series Components by Using Neural Networks.” Journal of
Operational Research Society. 54(March 2003): 307-317. Co-authored with James V. Hansen.
“Data Mining of Time Series Using Stacked Generalizers.” Neurocomputing. 43/1-4(January
2002): 173-184. Co-authored with James V. Hansen.
“Time Series Prediction with Genetic-Algorithm Designed Neural Networks: An Empirical
Comparison with Modern Statistical Models.” Computational Intelligence. 15(August 1999):
171-184. Co-authored with James V. Hansen and James B. McDonald.
“Improvements in the Power of Empirical Stochastic Dominance Comparisons Through Kernel
Density Estimation: A Monte Carlo Study”. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation.
60 (December 1998): 295-317. Co-authored with Rulon D. Pope.
“Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Stacked Generalization.” Journal of Computational
Intelligence in Finance. 6(July/August 1998): 14-24. Co-authored with James V. Hansen.
“Violin Plots: A Box Plot-Density Trace Synergism”. The American Statistician. 52(May 1998): 181184. Co-authored with Jerry Hintze.
“Neural Networks and Traditional Time Series Methods: A Synergistic Combination in State
Forecasts.” IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks. 8(July 1997): 863-873. Co- authored with
James V. Hansen.
“Monitoring Single Source Revenue Funds Throughout the Budget Year.” Public Budgeting &
Finance. 17(Summer 1997): 37-56. Co-authored with Gary C. Cornia.
“Beta Estimation in the Market Model: Skewness and Leptokurtosis.” Communications in
Statistics: Theory and Methods. 22(October 1993): 2843-2862. Co-authored with James B.
McDonald.
“Bootstrapped Insights into Empirical Applications of Stochastic Dominance.” Management
Science. 37(September 1991): 1182-1194. Co-authored with Rulon D. Pope.
“Robust Regression with Partially Adaptive Estimation of Regression Models.” Review of
Economics and Statistics. 62(May 1990): 321-327. Co-authored with Richard J. Butler, James
B. McDonald, and Steven White.
“Alternative Beta Estimation for the Market Model Using Partially Adaptive Techniques.”
Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods. 18(November 1989): 4039-4058. Coauthored with James B. McDonald.
“Forward and Futures Markets and the Competitive Firm Under Price Uncertainty.” Southern
Economic Journal. 55(July 1988): 182-195. Co-authored with Frances Antonovitz.
“The Interyear Effect of Routine Marketing on Farm Income and Utility.” North Central Journal of
Agricultural Economics. 8(July 1986): 258-268. Co-authored with Robert A. Collins.
“A Measure of Hedging's Performance.” The Journal of Futures Markets. 5(Spring 1985): 45-55.
Co-authored with Robert A. Collins.
“Forward and Futures Contracts as Commodity Marketing Instruments.” American Journal of
Agricultural Economics. 67(February 1985): 15-23.
BOOKS AND CHAPTERS IN BOOKS
“Tax Portfolios: An Integrated Methodology for Forecasting and Analysis”. Government Budget
Forecasting: Theory and Practice. Jinping Sun and Thomas D. Lynch, eds. Taylor and Francis,
2008, pages 501-523.
“Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Using Revenue Semaphores”. Advances in Business and
Management Forecasting, Volume 3. Kenneth D. Lawrence, Michael Geurts and John B.
Guerard, eds. JAI Press Inc., Greenwich, Connecticut, 2002, pages 177- 195. Co-authored with
Gary Cornia and Andrea Wilko.
“Forecasting and Monitoring State Tax Revenues Throughout the Budget Cycle”. Advances in
Business and Management Forecasting, Volume 2. Kenneth D. Lawrence, Michael Geurts and
John B. Guerard, eds. JAI Press Inc., Greenwich, Connecticut, 1998, pages 171-191. Coauthored with Gary Cornia and Douglas MacDonald.
“Understanding Our American Economy”. Center for Economic Education. Brigham Young
University. 1974. 232 pages. Co-authored with Glen T. Nelson.
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
“Georgia’s Tax Portfolio: Present and Future”. State Tax Notes. 66(November 19, 2012): 557-573.
“State Tax Revenue Growth and Volatility.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic
Development. 6(2010): 23 – 58.
“Stress Testing State Budgets under Alternative Business Cycle Scenarios”. State Tax Notes.
56(May 3, 2010): 363-372.
“Insights and Caveats From Recent Tax Reform in Utah”. State Tax Notes, 47(March 24, 2008):
921-933. Coauthored with Olene Walker, Gary Cornia, Pam Hendrickson, Bruce Johnson, Leo
Memmott, Gayle McKeachnie, Val Oveson, Keith Prescott, and Lynn Ward
“State Revenue Adequacy and Optimal State Portfolios of Sales Tax Components”. Proceedings
of the Annual Meetings of the National Tax Association, Columbus, Ohio, November 2007.
“Causes of State Income Tax Revenue Volatility”. State Tax Notes. 43(March 5, 2007): 601-614.
“State Income Tax Revenue Volatility: Causes and Effects”. Proceedings of the Annual Meetings
of the National Tax Association, Boston, November 2006. 303-312.
“Determining the Optimal Size of Rainy Day Funds Using Value at Risk.” Proceedings of the Annual
Meetings of the National Tax Association, Minneapolis, November 2004, 80-87. Co-authored
with Gary Cornia.
“Rainy Day Funds and Value at Risk.” State Tax Notes. 29(August 25, 2003): 563-567. Co-authored
with Gary Cornia. Reprinted in State Tax Notes, Special Supplement. 30(November 3, 2003):
417-421.
“Financial Health Standards for Health Maintenance Organizations.” Managed Care Interface.
15/2(February 2002): 56-62. Co-authored with Robert J. Parsons, Gary Gustafson, Bruce P.
Murray, and Richard B. Dwore.
“Risk Analysis Using @RISK® and Crystal Ball®: A Review”. The Oracle of IIF, International Institute
of Forecasters Newsletter, December 2000, pages 8-11. Co-authored with Len Tashman.
“The Effect of Asymmetrical and Leptokurtic Stock Market Returns on Security Market
Portfolios”. Proceedings of the Annual Meetings of the American Statistical Association,
Business and Economics Section. Chicago, August 1996, pages 272-277.
“The Performance of Wall Street Journal Macroeconomic Forecasters”. Proceedings of the
Annual Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Section.
Orlando, August 1995, pages 234-239. Co-authored with Beth Haynes.
“Intrayear Monitoring of State Tax Revenue Forecasts”. Proceedings of the Annual Meetings of
the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Section. Toronto, August 1994,
pages 339-344. Co-authored with Gary C. Cornia.
“Alternative Representations of Risk in Futures Markets: An Illustration from the Gold Market”.
Proceedings of the Annual Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and
Economics Section. San Francisco, August 1993, pages 254-259.
“Applications of Stochastic Dominance Using Bootstrapping, Kernels, and Truncation.”
Proceedings of the Annual Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and
Economics Section. Boston, August 1992, pages 88-93.
“Density Estimation and Empirical Applications of Stochastic Dominance.” Proceedings of the
Annual Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Section.
Atlanta, August 1991, pages 271-276. Co-authored with Rulon D. Pope.
“Imprecise Tail Estimation and the Empirical Failure of Stochastic Dominance.” Proceedings of
the Annual Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Section.
Anaheim, August 1990, pages 374-379. Co-authored with Rulon D. Pope.
“Partially Adaptive Beta Estimation for the Market Model.” Proceedings of the Annual Meetings
of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Section. New Orleans, August
1988. Co-authored with James B. McDonald.
“Exploring the Shape of Probability Densities for Chicago Board of Trade September Wheat
Futures Price Changes.” Center for the Study of Futures Markets Working Paper Series.
Columbia Business School, 1988, 32 pages.
“Forward and Futures Markets and the Competitive Firm Under Price Uncertainty.” Proceedings
of a Conference on Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural
Production Firms, San Antonio, March 1987, pages 83-105. Co-authored with Frances
Antonovitz.
“Systematic Risk and Volatility in Commodity Markets.” Proceedings of Conference on Applied
Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management, Chicago, May 1985,
pages 125-148.
“Hedging, Speculating, and Spreading in Spot, Forward, and Futures Markets.” Proceedings of
Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis and Forecasting, St. Louis, April 1984, pages
40-63. Co-authored with Daniel Aguiar and Tim Park.
“Measures of Diversity: A Comparison.” Proceedings of Conference on Economic Analysis of Risk
Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms, New Orleans, March 1984, pages
112-131.
OTHER SCHOLARLY PAPERS PRESENTED
“Lessons and Insights from Reforming Utah’s Individual Income Tax”. Conference on Reforming
State and Local Tax Systems. Tulane University’s Murphy Institute and Department of
Economics, New Orleans, Louisiana. October 2015.
“Tax Revenue Synchronization with the Business Cycle: When Will State Tax Revenues Recover
from the Great Recession?”. Federation of Tax Administrators Revenue Estimation and Tax
Research Conference, Sun Valley, Idaho, 2010.
“State Tax Revenue Growth and Volatility”. Conference on State and Local Government Amid
Economic Turbulence. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Weidenbaum Center on the
Economy, Government, and Public Policy. April 2010.
“Stress Testing State Budgets under Alternative Business Cycle Scenarios”. Annual Meetings of
the National Tax Association, Denver, Colorado, November 2009.
“Mining Tax Policy Insights from Personal Income Tax Return Databases: Procedures, Insights,
and Caveats.” Annual Meetings of the National Tax Association. Miami, Florida. November
2005.
“Financial Engineering for Stable State Education Funding.” American Education Financial
Association Annual Meeting. Louisville, Kentucky. March 2005.
“Fiscal Planning, Budgeting, and Rebudgeting Using Revenue Semaphores.” National Association
of State Budget Officers Annual Meetings. Salt Lake City, Utah, August 2003.
“Rainy Day Funds and Value at Risk.” State Fiscal Crises, Causes, Consequences, and Solutions.
The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. April 2003.
“The Information Content and Quality of Wall Street Journal GDP Forecasts.” 21th Annual
Symposium on Forecasting. International Institute of Forecasters. Callaway Gardens, Georgia,
June 2001.
“The Characterization and Communication of Tax Revenue Forecast Uncertainty.” 20th Annual
Symposium on Forecasting. International Institute of Forecasters. Lisbon, Portugal, June
2000.
“Probabilistic Tax Revenue Estimates and the State Budgeting Process.” 17th Annual Symposium
on Forecasting. International Institute of Forecasters. Barbados, West Indies, June 1997.
“Cumulative Density Function Estimators and the Empirical Failure of Stochastic Dominance.”
Annual meetings of the Western Economics Association, San Diego, July 1990.
“A Comparison of Forward and Futures Contracts as Hedging Instruments in Foreign Currency
Markets.” Annual meetings of the Western Economics Association. Lake Tahoe, June 1989.
“The Shape of Probability Densities for Futures Price Changes.” Annual meetings of the Western
Economics Association, Los Angeles, July 1988.
CURRENT WORKING PAPERS
“State Income Tax Revenue Volatility: Causes and Effects”
“State Revenue Adequacy and Optimal State Portfolios of Sales Tax Components”
“Mining Tax Policy Insights from Personal Income Tax Return Databases: The Case of Utah State
Personal Income Tax Reform” with Gary C. Cornia
“Lessons and Insights from Reforming Utah’s Individual Income Tax”
“Optimal Design of State Personal Income Tax Rates and Credits”
RESEARCH AREAS
Public Finance and Tax Policy
Economic Forecasting and Government Budgeting
Applications of Quantitative and Statistical Analysis to Budgeting Decisions
TEACHING AREAS
Financial Toolkit
Analytics
Government Finance
Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Forecasting and Budgeting
REFERENCES
Merrill J. Bateman. Emertius General Authority, Church of Jesus Christ of Latterday Saints
Douglas Christensen. Former President, Bonneville Bank.
Gary C. Cornia. Former Dean, Marriott School of Management, Brigham Young University
James V. Hansen. Emeritus Professor, Brigham Young University
R. Bruce Johnson. Former Chair of Utah State Tax Commission
M. Keith Prescott. Wisan, Smith, Racker, & Prescott, LLP
PERSONAL
Romney Institute of Public Management
836 East 2680 North
Marriott School of Management
Provo, Utah 84604
769 TNRB
801-319-4151
Brigham Young University
Provo, Utah 84602
801-422-6126 (Office)
ray_nelson@byu.edu
Age: 64
Spouse: Pamela G. Nelson
Children: Jennifer, Rebecca, Angela and Jonathan
02/2016