Average lifespan is the area under the curve!
Competing risks: the elephant in the room
How much longer could people live if we eliminated smallpox?
Fred claims that you could eliminate smallpox (md) and still not affect lifespan The answer is to assume that smallpox only comes on scene once a person is
nearly dead from other illness anyway, and only serves as the final nail in the
coffin. Competing risks: both things are trying to kill you, but are they independent?
Severe death syndrome (any severe illness)
Smallpox If the above aren't independent, the the m+md approach can be way off
How do we simulate this? Heterogeneity due to age: very predictable Heterogeneity due to health status: unpredictable