Selecting Big Sagebrush Seed Sources for Restoration in a Variable Environment: Assessment of Young Seedling Responses Matt Germino, Martha Brabec, Brynne Lazarus, Ann-Marie Raymondi, Bill Davidson, Lar Svenson US Geological Survey Forest & Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Boise ID mgermino@usgs.gov Bryce Richardson and Nancy Shaw of USFS RMRS, Anne Halford of BLM Funded by GBNPSI project Outline, studies of big sagebrush seeding or planting success: • Landscape-scale experiments established in the Birds of Prey National Conservation Area -Testing importance of seed source, climate/weather variability and herb treatments -Focus on early establishment phase, comparing/contrasting with adults Seedling common garden also established in JFSP BOP management-treatment study (funded by JFSP, GBNPSI, FWS-GBLCC, local volunteers helped). Low survivorship; best was in local basin big sagebrush & reduced herbs Snake Plain Warming Study -New approach for passive warming in field experiments Grand Teton National Park Birds of Prey NCA, burned and unburned Hollister, sagebrush Raft River, burned now cheatgrass Passive Warming Frames Open-side warming chambers increase longwave radiation balance, simulating the Greenhouse effect, and raise minimum nighttime temperatures by 2-4°C (Germino and Smith 1999). Boise EXPERIMENT AT BOP NCA: • 5 replicated blocks on five separate fires and paired unburned sites • Warming X Rainout treatments • 2012 wildfire sites: Poen, Kave, South Point, Swan Falls, and Coyote. • Each sites has a different fire/seeding history. Seedling common-gardens now in BOP warming experiment Table 1. Genotypes (provenances or populations) outplanted or seeded in Nov 20120 into five sites in the BOP NCA that were burned by wildfire in June/July 2012. Provenance State of code name origin IDT-2 ID BOP-W ID IDV-2 ID NMT-2 NM UTT-1 UT IDW-2 ID ORT-2 OR MTW-3 MT ORV-1 OR IDW-3 ID IDV-3 ID CAT-2 CA Subspecies of big sagebrush tridentata wyomingensis vaseyana tridentata tridentata wyomingensis tridentata wyomingensis vaseyana wyomingensis vaseyana vaseyana Rationale (climate of origin) Local region Local site Local region Warm/Dry Cool/Wet Local region Warm/Dry Cool/Wet Cool/Wet Warm/Dry Cool/Wet Warm/Dry Treatments planted Ploidy into Warmed+Control 2N Warmed+Control 4N Warmed+Control 2N Control 4N Control 2N Control 4N Control 2N Control 4N Control 4N Control 4N Control 2N Control 2N Hypotheses and predictions Warming effect: negative impact on seedlings, esp. mountain big sage Subspecies effect: Mountain big sagebrush will have least establishment Cytotype effect: tetratploids will have greatest establishment Provenance effect: local populations will have greatest establishment Climate of origin effect: in winter, less stress for pops from colder areas. Greater WUE in pops from warmer areas Compared to adults: similar variation among subspecies x ctyotypes; greater stress exhibited by seedlings, different strategy In adults: Great enhancement of warmer nights at higher elevations; suggestive of potential for upward/northward expansion perhaps with less contraction? Growth (cm / year) 4 Control Warmed 3 2 1 0 Boise Twin Falls Teton NP but what about seedling life stage? Strong species interaction: 1.0 0.8 BOP-W (A.t. wyomingensis) 60 Control Warmed 0.6 40 0.4 20 0.2 0 IDT-2 (A.t. tridentata) 0.8 Height (mm) Survival fraction 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 60 40 20 0 IDV-2 (A.t. vaseyana) 60 40 20 0.2 0.0 0 At BOP, survival of Wyoming big sagebrush is greatest in control plots. BUT: Warming causes greater survival of basin and reduced growth of Wyoming big sagebrush Data: Martha Brabec Fv/Fm From 22 Jan ’14, P = 0.01 Control (21) Warmed (37) Treatment (and # surviving seedlings) Survivorship (fraction) 0.8 ARTRT 2N ARTRT 4N ARTRV 2N ARTRV 4N ARTRW 4N 0.6 0.4 80 60 Height (mm) 1.0 40 IDV3 IDW2 IDW3 MTW3 NMT2 ORT2 ORV1 UTT1 20 0.2 0 0.0 Date (month/day) Date (month/day) Examples of species comparisons in control plots: -Ploidy appears to have an effect on survivorship (P<0.05) -Non-local basin big sagebrush has greater growth Climate of Origin Cool/Wet IDV3 MTW3 UTT1 Local IDW2 BOPW IDT2 IDV2 Warm/Dry IDW3 NMT2 ORT2 Survival_1-22-14 23 7 10 6 36 15 12 5 4 21 11 3 7 Parallel subspecies x cytotype patterns in seedlings & adults 75 0.75 Height (mm) Survivorship 1 SEEDLINGS 50 0.5 25 0.25 0 0 Tri 2N Tri 4N Vas 4N Wy 4N Vas 2N ADULTS 50 0.75 Height (cm) Survivorship 1 Tri 2n Tri 4n Vas 4n Wyo 4n Vas 2n 0.5 0.25 0 Tri 2n Tri 4n Vas 4nWyo 4nVas 2n Subspecies x ploidy 25 0 Tri 2n Tri 4n Vas 4n Wyo 4n Vas 2n Subspecies x ploidy Survivorship Average Height (mm) Growth vs. survivorship tradeoff in seedlings (but not adults) 100 ARTRW ARTRT 75 50 25 0 0.4 0.2 0 Population ARTRV stress levels for seedlings still in conetainers after frost in Nov 2012, adults at Orchard common garden p<0.01 Fv/Fm January 2012, similar results from controlled freezing experiment Cool/wet Local Warm/dry Climate of Origin P < 0.05 Freezing point (C) P < 0.05 for both. Post freezing+sunlight FvFm Seedlings have less avoidance but better resistance to freezing ADULTS SEEDLINGS Subspecies and cytotype Carbon isotopes: • Greater water-use efficiency in populations from warmer and drier climates (1 per mil, P < 0.05) • Subspecies x cytotype variations are similar to in adults, among subspecies, and also cytotypes: Preliminary outcomes (Given overall low survival due to drought): Warming effect: Reduced physiological stress for all seed sources Survival/growth: ATW > in controls, ATT> in warmed Subspecies effect: Mountain big sagebrush had least establishment Cytotype effect: Greater survival in 4N; Provenance effect: Local survivorship > in herb treatments, Local growth <. Survival better in local than pops from other climates Unclear on physiological stress differences Greater WUE in pops from warmer areas Compared to adults: similar variation among subspecies x ctyotypes; different growth/survival & freezing avoidance/resistance Preliminary implications from climate studies - Seed source effects are evident for initial establishment - Some evidence for “local is better” for survivorship; but opposite is true for growth - Subtle warming may begin to shift subspecies suitability for BOP NCA - Care needs to be taken in translating info from reproductively mature plants to problems of initial establishment; Other relevant directions Restoring structure to ameliorate microclimate for restoration What can we learn about seed source effects from historic seedings (do they indicate seed transfer limits?) w/ Ann Marie Raymondi 7,492 seeding treatments recorded in LTDL from 1940 to 2011, many areas still needing updates JUSTIN WELTY, USGS Key Challenge in Identifying Treatments: Increasing size and intensity of wildfires has burned over dozens of ESR treatments in Southwestern Idaho from 1990-present. 21 seedings now evaluated near Boise since Nov 2013, includes Lysne&Pellant (2006) sites Initial Findings • • • • • Seed typically from higher elevation ~ 500 miles away One to many seed sources used 6 out of 21 seedings had correct ssp 4 of 21 seedings had decent establishment Crude, very preliminary regressions not showing geographic distance or elevation of seed source relates to establishment • More projects need to be sampled to account for many factors Excluding all the seeding treatments that have burned over, estimated # of additional projects we could sample: Field Office Shoshone Burley Jarbidge Pocatello Upper Snake # seeding # seeding projects with projects with complete info just Lot ID 2 9 1 11 4 2 0 3 3 6 We have sampled 20, there are 65 more we could evaluate in Southern Idaho alone. Seed may be available to asses what was planted on failed seedings The end mgermino@usgs.gov Approp seed source, subspecies: 6 matches 12 wrong ssp 2 in question 1000 100 10 1 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1000 100 10 1 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000