ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS PO Box 2602, Bend, OR 97709, USA 2855 Telegraph Ave, Suite 400, Berkeley, CA 94705 Phone 541.480.5694 ecosystemx.com Phone 510.848.8098 stillwatersci.com An Economic Analysis of Sierra Meadow Restoration Bruce Aylward Ecosystem Economics Amy Merrill Stillwater Sciences A report for Environmental Defense Fund under the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation’s Sierra Meadows Initiative January 2012 Executive Summary Privately owned meadow ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada provide a range of economic benefits to landowners and the public. Many of the meadows in the Sierra Nevada are degraded to some extent and restoration of these ecosystems will alter, and in most cases enhance, the benefits these meadows provide. This paper seeks to identify, describe and analyze the biogeophysical changes as well as the economic costs and benefits that could accompany meadow restoration. With this information, an effort is made to articulate and quantify the potential financial incentives that could motivate landowners to engage in meadow restoration and to describe the economic rationale for the use of public funds to support such projects. The context for this paper is a larger effort to address the rehabilitation and long-term sustainability of Sierra Meadow Ecosystems by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF) and other interested stakeholders. The NFWF Sierra Meadows Business Plan cites the widespread degradation of meadow ecohydrology, resulting in gullying, dewatering, shrub encroachment and changes in plant species composition and diversity. In particular, channel incision and the accompanying lowering of streambeds and groundwater tables represent an important challenge for restoration efforts. In addressing these problems, NFWF is targeting the enhancement of a wide range of ecosystem benefits. There are several ecosystem benefits for which technical and economic information is available to assess the financial private and public social incentives for Sierra meadow restoration. Because meadow restoration impacts may extend beyond the specific site to its watershed, this analysis examines both on and off-site benefits. The benefits included in the analysis are forage and beef production, sediment reduction, downstream flows, and habitat improvements. Using this framework, a literature review was performed, followed by an investigation of the private (financial) and social (economic) returns using the case study of a hypothetical “typical” 50-acre meadow restoration project. A summary of the conclusions of this analysis can be found in Table ES-1. These conclusions represent the first effort to actually describe, quantify and value the costs and benefits of meadow restoration. However, it should be noted that the number of generalizations and assumptions necessary to reach these conclusions suggest that further work is warranted to review, revise and update this effort. Overall, there was a paucity of data to adequately illustrate the before and after scenarios of meadow restoration projects. In addition, meadows are not homogenous throughout the Sierra Nevada; therefore generalization is difficult at best. Each project must be analyzed on a case-by-case basis to understand the actual costs and benefits of restoring a particular meadow. Meadow Economics i Table ES-1. Summary of Economic Valuation Results Ecosystem Service A. On-Site Benefits Forage and beef production B. Off-Site Benefits Sediment reduction Downstream flows C. On- & Off-Site Benefits Habitat improvement Direction and estimate of change in service with restoration Base Case Scenario High Scenario Low Scenario ($/acre) ($/acre) ($/acre) Positive, medium to large $900-$2,500 $1,100-$4,500 $600-$700 Positive, small Positive or Negative, small to large $10 $-250 $19 $5,000 $1 $-2,500 Positive, large Not valued The conclusion of the financial analysis is that the increase in returns for ranchers might be more significant than generally expected. Ranchers may earn a significant amount of net income off of restored meadows. Restoration projects should therefore seek appropriate cost-share levels. With regard to the question of economic returns and social incentives, the results suggest that the role of habitat and wildlife may see the most significant positive change. The off-site hydrological benefits of restoration can generally be summarized as having been overstated in past efforts. Flood attenuation and sediment reduction are expected to be generally of little consequence, though such a generalization is awkward given the site-specific nature of the benefits. Considerable time and effort is devoted in the paper to the topic of downstream flow. No generalization is possible on the direction of the impacts of restoration. Some original evidence is provided for benefits from restored meadows during dry years; however, the same data suggests even larger benefits from unrestored meadows during wet years. It may also be that in some cases the hydrological changes will not be significant, or cannot be estimated with confidence in advance or determined through post-restoration monitoring. In such cases this particular impact might be best dropped from inclusion in the analysis of costs, benefits and incentives. Further applied research is well advised in order to tease out the key parameters that can assist in developing predictive hydro-economic models of the flow response to restoration. In sum, caution may be needed to avoid potential downstream costs. But absent such impacts the economic picture is favorable for meadow restoration and there exists a clear role for landowner participation and contribution, as well as the use of public funds to incentivize meadow restoration projects. A number of overarching recommendations to support similar future investigations include: standards and protocols for measuring key variables pre- and post-restoration better connections between practitioner monitoring and evaluations and academic research improved, compiled and maintained datasets to facilitate this type of integrated environmentaleconomic assessment While some aspects of meadow restoration are relatively well understood, others are poorly described with unexplained, conflicting findings. There is a great paucity in empirical data on downstream flow effects of restoration that includes long pre- and post-project data sets. Although ground and surface water flow models exist that could be applied to mountain meadows, the field data needed to parameterize and ground truth these models has been collected and applied in only a few instances. Moreover there is uncertainty regarding some of the underlying process controls. These uncertainties need to be clarified Meadow Economics ii and incorporated into existing conceptual and quantitative models of meadow hydrology in order to develop methods for accurately predicting restoration effects. With regard to surface and groundwater, studies disagree primarily on the impact of restoration on groundwater and stream outflow. Ideally, future studies will focus on this issue specifically, answering the following questions: How does variation in bedrock vs. alluvial conductivity affect meadow hydrology? What are the major controls on groundwater contributions to downstream discharge (and how can these be measured)? Are there other properties of the meadow or catchment area that affect stream outflow that aren’t currently being measured or considered? Are there reliable proxy variables that can be used to characterize differences in parameters that are important but very difficult to directly quantify? Many of the key uncertainties that surround downstream flows could be partially addressed through improved and consistent monitoring and evaluation efforts. First, in terms of baseline and post project monitoring, the installation of continuous recorders along channels directly above and below meadows and more frequent documentation on channel cross section changes is recommended. Also, increased monitoring duration during the pre-restoration and post-restoration periods is advisable so that multiple years and a variation in hydrological condition can be captured in response data. We also recommend that the hydro-economic modeling approach started in this paper be further developed. Although a growing number of scientific studies on meadow hydrology, vegetation, and forage production exist, more research is needed on this and several other biological aspects of meadow restoration. For example, we recommend studies that will: Clarify the relationship between forage quality, quantity, and cattle production to support an integrated bio-economic model for range management; Provide estimates of the restoration effects on long-term above and below ground carbon sequestration and associated economic analysis to forward development of a market for meadow restoration carbon credits or offsets; Identify and field test indicators that link pond and plug restoration approaches to improved fish and wildlife habitat. As this is one of the first attempts to apply a financial and economic valuation of these impacts, much work remains. Due to variability and uncertainty inherent in meadow restoration, the most useful next step at this point would be to take the approaches developed in this paper and apply them in a case study framework to ground the analysis in the specifics of particular meadows and their associated economic contexts. Meadow Economics iii Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................... 1 2. MEADOW ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ............................................................................................................. 2 2.1 HYDROGEOLOGIC FUNCTION IN MEADOWS ..................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 Meadow Hydrologic Inputs ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 Meadow Hydrologic Outputs ................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 Meadow Water Storage ............................................................................................................................ 7 2.2 MEADOW RESTORATION EFFECTS ON A SELECT SET OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES .............................................. 7 2.2.1 Reduced bank erosion and fine sediment storage .................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Improved Productivity for Rangelands .................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 Improved Habitat for Target Meadow-Dependent Species .................................................................... 12 2.2.4 Effects on Downstream Flows ............................................................................................................... 18 2.2.5 Increasing Flood Attenuation................................................................................................................. 22 2.2.6 Carbon Storage ...................................................................................................................................... 23 3. REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES............................................................................................................. 23 3.1 ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF SIERRA MEADOWS RESTORATION AND RELATED STUDIES ............................... 24 3.2 VALUATION OF SIERRA MEADOW RESTORATION COSTS AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ................................... 25 3.2.1 Valuation Techniques and Meadow Restoration .................................................................................... 25 3.2.2 Sierra Meadow Restoration Projects ..................................................................................................... 26 3.2.3 Costs of Meadow Restoration ................................................................................................................ 27 3.2.4 Values for Forage and Beef ................................................................................................................... 28 3.2.5 Values for Flow Regime Changes .......................................................................................................... 29 3.2.6 Values for Flow Regime Changes: Flood Protection ............................................................................. 30 3.2.7 Values for Water Quantity for Downstream Water Supply and Storage ................................................ 31 3.2.8 Values for Sediment Reduction .............................................................................................................. 33 4. EVALUATION OF THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF MEADOW RESTORATION ............................. 35 4.1 GENERAL PARAMETERS FOR THE EVALUATION ............................................................................................. 35 4.1.1 Discount Rates ....................................................................................................................................... 35 4.1.2 Time Horizon.......................................................................................................................................... 36 4.2 MEADOW RESTORATION: A “TYPICAL” POND AND PLUG PROJECT AND RESTORATION COSTS ...................... 37 4.3 PRIVATE BENEFITS: HAY, FORAGE AND BEEF CATTLE .................................................................................. 37 4.3.1 Hay and Forage Productivity Method.................................................................................................... 38 4.3.2 Forage-AUM Productivity Method ........................................................................................................ 40 4.3.3 Forage-Cattle Productivity Method ....................................................................................................... 41 4.3.4 Conclusions on Private Returns ............................................................................................................. 43 4.4 SOCIAL INCENTIVES: ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS ................................................................................. 44 4.5 SOCIAL INCENTIVES: OFF-SITE COSTS AND BENEFITS. ................................................................................... 45 4.5.1 Sediment Reduction ................................................................................................................................ 45 4.5.2 The Costs and Benefits of Changes in Downstream Flow...................................................................... 46 4.5.3 Improved habitat for sensitive species ................................................................................................... 50 5. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................................ 51 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................................. 53 APPENDIX 1. Conceptual Framework for Evaluation of Meadow Restoration .............................................................. 59 APPENDIX 2. Forage Productivity Studies ..................................................................................................................... 65 APPENDIX 3. Trout Creek Hydrographs ........................................................................................................................ 67 APPENDIX 4: Detailed Economic Evaluation Literature Review ................................................................................... 71 Meadow Economics iv List of Tables Table 1. Ecosystem Services potentially provided by healthy mountain meadows...................................... 3 Table 2. Proposed metrics of ecosystem services provided by healthy mountain meadows ........................ 4 Table 3. Sediment loading effects of meadow restoration in three meadows in the Sierra Nevada. ............ 8 Table 4 Meadow plant community types by hydrologic regime, cross-walked with Ratliff 1985 meadow classification ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Table 5. Annual Forage Productivity Statistics based on literature, as detailed in Appendix 2. ................ 11 Table 6. Weight Gain by Meadow Condition ............................................................................................. 12 Table 7. Effects of meadow restoration on downstream (DS) flows. ......................................................... 19 Table 8. Modeling studies on effects of meadow restoration on downstream flood peak flows (flood attenuation). ................................................................................................................................................ 23 Table 9. Plumas County Meadow Restoration Projects .............................................................................. 27 Table 10. Cost of Plumas County Pond and plug Projects ......................................................................... 28 Table 11. Summary of Central Valley Water Right Leases, 2000 – 2009 .................................................. 32 Table 12. Municipal Water Treatment Costs due to Turbidity and Sediment ............................................ 34 Table 13. Feather River Pond and Plug Restoration Projects: Statistics..................................................... 37 Table 14. Valuation of Hay and Forage ...................................................................................................... 39 Table 15. Valuation of Forage-AUM Method ............................................................................................ 40 Table 16. Parameters for Forage-Beef Method ........................................................................................... 41 Table 17. Sample Change in Productivity Calculations (for early season mesic stocking rate of 1 animal/acre)................................................................................................................................................. 42 Table 18. Valuation of Forage – Cattle Productivity Method ..................................................................... 43 Table 19. Comparison of Valuation Approaches to the Private Returns to Ranching ................................ 44 Table 20. Social Returns of Ranching with Meadow Restoration .............................................................. 45 Table 21. Economic Benefits of Sediment Reduction ................................................................................ 46 Table 22. Meadow Hydrogeology and Water Productivity – Model #1 .................................................... 48 Table 23. Meadow Hydrogeology and Water Productivity – Model #2 .................................................... 50 Meadow Economics v Table 24. Summary of Economic Valuation Results .................................................................................. 52 List of Figures Figure 1. Conceptual Model for Mountain Meadow Hydrology .................................................................. 1 Figure 2. Annual Forage Productivity........................................................................................................ 11 Figure 3. Economic Valuation Methods by Category................................................................................. 25 Figure 4. Average Short-Term Lease Rates by End Use ............................................................................ 32 Figure 5. Cause and Effect: Meadow Restoration and Ecosystem Services/Biodiversity .......................... 51 List of Boxes Box 1. Central Valley Water Markets ......................................................................................................... 32 Meadow Economics vi 1. Introduction Privately owned meadow ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada provide a range of ecosystem benefits to landowners and to the public. Many of the meadows in the Sierra Nevada are degraded to some extent and restoration of these ecosystems will alter, and in most cases enhance, the ecosystem goods, services and biodiversity (hereinafter referred to simply as “ecosystem benefits” for convenience sake) these meadows provide. These changes have both financial consequences for the landowner and economic impacts for society. This paper seeks to identify, describe and analyze both the biogeophysical changes that accompany meadow restoration as well as the financial (private) and economic (social) costs and benefits. The intent is to provide a window on the financial incentives that could motivate landowners to engage in restoration and the economic rationale for the use of public funds to support such projects. This paper is part of a larger effort to address the rehabilitation and long-term sustainability of Sierra Meadow Ecosystems by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF) and other interested stakeholders. The NFWF Business Plan cites widespread deterioration of meadow ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada due to road building, over-grazing, mining, logging, urbanization and development, and catastrophic wildfire. The effects of these changes have altered meadow ecohydrology through gullying, desiccation, shrub encroachment and changes in plant species composition and diversity. In particular channel incision and the accompanying lowering of groundwater tables represent an important challenge for restoration efforts. In addressing these problems, NFWF is concerned with the restoration of a wide range of ecosystem services, including: Increased flood attenuation and flow reliability increased late season water flow reduced erosion (and downstream sedimentation) reduced summer water temperatures maintenance of existing habitat, and increased habitat for rare plants, birds, amphibians, fish and other aquatic species To this list must be added the potential to provide increased forage from re-managed and re-watered meadows, particularly in the late summer season. Meadow restoration is an issue on both public and private lands.. On private lands the focus of economic valuation is one of providing landowners the incentives to restore meadow function – not just for fish and wildlife purposes but also for purposes of generating higher returns to ranchers through forage improvements that may accompany the meadow restoration. The larger question of how this compensation could be generated must also be addressed. This could include a variety of options: from restoration enhancements that will increase land value enough to pay for the cost of changed management, or through a government funded and tracked program like the Farm Bill. An ecosystem markets approach may also prove to be a critical funding source: with ecosystem service credits being sold and traded through voluntary or regulated markets, such as currently exist for carbon in the US and Europe. In this paper, we are primarily concerned with challenges specific to private meadow restoration, though our findings may be of some value on public lands as well. From a strictly economic perspective the policy questions that need to be addressed are: 1. What are the costs and benefits of meadow restoration from the perspective of the landowner? a. If they are positive but not well understood perhaps telling the economic story will be sufficient to motivate private investment in restoration? b. If they are negative then what level of incentive would be necessary to compensate landowners for any losses they might bear from restoration and serve to encourage them to either invest themselves in restoration or accept efforts by public and non-profit entities to engage in restoration on their lands 2. What are the public costs and benefits of meadow restoration, i.e. from the perspective of NFWF and its public and non-profit partners? a. If the benefits are greater than the costs and compensation is required by landowners, then there is cause to develop a program of financial incentives to induce landowners to either invest in restoration themselves or to accept efforts by other entities to undertake restoration; b. If the costs and required compensation outweigh the benefits, then providing incentives or implementing meadow restoration would represent a poor investment of public conservation dollars. It is worth noting at the outset that given the difficulty of valuing all of the ecosystem benefits it is unlikely to be practical to ever actually prove that 2b is the case. However, if it is not possible to demonstrate either 1a, or 1b and 2a, then presumably there may be better investments for limited conservation dollars elsewhere. This paper is divided into three major sections. In the first section, monitoring data and findings from scientific studies on degraded and restored meadows are summarized and presented to support estimates of changes in service associated with meadow restoration. In order to fit with the incentives framework presented above, the impacts are taken in order: first the on-site impacts and then the off-site, or downstream, impacts. The next section reviews the economic literature pertinent to the economic evaluation of Sierra meadow restoration and the valuation of meadow benefits. The third major section compiles the aforementioned information into an assessment of the incentives framework. A hypothetical “typical” meadow is posited and figures, parameters, models and results from the literature reviews are applied to the calculate the costs and benefits of meadow restoration. Given the range of meadow conditions described and the degree of uncertainty over specific parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis is included. While preliminary and inexact at best, the paper then summarizes the emerging conclusions on the economics of meadow restoration in the Sierra, particularly with regard to the financial and economic incentives for restoration going forward. In conclusion, an outline of the ideas for next steps to improve the information that underpins the analysis is provided. 2. Meadow Ecosystem Services Healthy meadow ecosystems provide critical benefits for populations both local and remote (e.g., Bay Area; Table 1). For example, healthy meadows can provide flood attenuation, reduce erosion to downstream areas, and act as natural filters that improve downstream water quality. Meadows are considered biodiversity hotspots in the Sierra Nevada because they provide forage and critical habitat for a wide range of plant and animal species, including many listed species such as the Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), Great Grey owl (Strix nebulosa), Yosemite toad (Bufo canorus), and the Sierra Nevada red fox (Vulpes vulpes necator, recently sited in the central Sierra Nevada) (Saguhan 2010). It has been widely surmised that healthy meadows also act as natural reservoirs that slowly release stored water during the dry late summer period, when water demands are highest in relation to supply. Flows during this period are critical for native fish, amphibians, and other wildlife (Jennings and Hayes 1994) as well as for agricultural and residential water needs. Yet as detailed in this paper, actual measurements of increased downstream base flows are few and equivocal. The frequent overbank flooding and high floodplain connectivity that are characteristic of healthy meadows also results in sediment filtering and storage. In comparison with elevated sediment loads from actively eroding gullies where overbank 2 flooding rarely or never occurs, restoring incised meadows ultimately may increase the longevity of downstream dams and reservoirs (Jones and Stokes, 2008). Similarly, increased overbank flooding in meadows results in attenuated downstream flooding, since the peak flows of a rainstorm or snowmelt driven flood become distributed over time as the wide meadow floodplain drains back into the channel; with lower downstream peak flood flows, flood associated damage is reduced. Elevated growing season groundwater levels in well-managed meadows can also produce high quality late season forage, thereby providing grazing lands for livestock and supporting the local agrarian economy. Finally, healthy meadows have important cultural and aesthetic values. Table 1. Ecosystem Services potentially provided by healthy mountain meadows. Increase habitat for diverse species Increase late summer water storage Decrease flooding Decrease sediment load and delivery Improve water quality Increase late summer base flow Rich rangelands Aesthetic value Protect Native American cultural values In order to quantify changes in ecosystem services, we must identify metrics that either directly or indirectly measure the product of each ecosystem service. In Table 2, we propose a first cut at such metrics and the units of measure that might be used for each one. For all of these, we make the comparison between pre vs. post-project conditions to quantify the change in ecosystem services that can be attributed to restoration projects. Overall there is a systematic paucity of data on pre-project conditions so that the level of certainty for these pre-project or ‘baseline’ values will be less than those available for post-implementation or ‘project’ conditions. 3 Table 2. Proposed metrics of ecosystem services provided by healthy mountain meadows Ecosystem Service Channel condition Late summer base flow Metric Daily flow from mid-July through mid-September Decrease flooding Decrease sediment load and delivery Improve water quality Downstream annual peak flow (difference between pre-project and post-project in annual maximum hourly or daily average flow) Decrease in downstream sediment delivery under post-project compared to pre-project conditions Upstream to downstream change in concentration of (1) pathogens; (2) nitrate; (3) phosphorous; (4) fine sediment Improve water temperature Upstream to downstream change in temperature from top to bottom of meadow Increase Aquatic Habitat Quality and Productivity Vegetation Condition Increase in forage production and timing Increase biodiversity Increase Carbon Storage 2.1 Number of fish per reach length or number per species of fish, aquatic invertebrate indicators Plant production and quality produced per acre translated to tons of beef per acre. Areal extent of suitable habitat (specific per species) OR Change in number or frequency of wildlife sitings Net input of greenhouse gases and carbon (nitrous oxide, methane, carbon) Units of measure Cubic feet per second (cfs) increase in summer flows over pre-project OR number of days where minimum stream flow exceeded a threshold. Change in annual peak flow discharge at site immediately downstream of meadow (average daily or instantaneous) cfs Tons of sediment per year based on change in channel size over time. Parts per million (or billion) of pathogens, Total Nitrogen, Total Phosphorus, Total Suspended Solids o C degree difference in late summer stream temperatures OR number of days where maximum stream temperature exceeded a threshold. Number of fish Or aquatic habitat assessment score Tons of beef production/acre in early, mid and late summer Acres of appropriate habitat type created times an index of habitat quality Tons of net carbonequivalent stored per acre per year Hydrogeologic Function in Meadows One of the most common characteristics of a degraded meadow is channel incision and/or gully creation. Incision can be caused by a number of different land use practices working alone or in combination. The most common sources of incision are overgrazing, channelization, construction of roads or railroads, and logging. It is possible that natural climatic variation can affect the meadow hydrology as well (Helms 1987 and Woodward et al. 1995, Millar et al. 2004, Loheide et al. 2009). When stream channels in meadows become incised, or when a gully is created in a meadow with no pre-existing channel, the immediate effect is that water once stored in the rooting zone soil (upper one to three feet) drains down to 4 the incised channel, lowering the water table and releasing groundwater from storage through the eroded channel or gully. This lowered water table has ramifications throughout the meadow, such as more rapid snow melt runoff and decreased meadow water storage capacity (Hammersmark et al. 2008; Cornwell and Brown 2008a). Though the hydrological systems of meadows are complicated and unique to each site, a general model describing the components of the meadow and their interactions is useful in understanding the extent of ecosystem disruption caused by channel incision. The various hydrological elements of the meadow can be described in the terms of a water balance: input, output and change in storage (Figure 1). Figure 1. Conceptual Model for Mountain Meadow Hydrology Channel inflow Evapotranspiration Precipitation Channel overflow and recharge Ground water inputs to alluvium Channel outflow Down slope groundwater recharge Notes: This very simplified model reflects the basic types of water inputs (blue) and outputs (yellow) for a ‘typical’ meadow system. Rates associated with each arrow vary with meadow characteristics and water year. The effect of restoration on these processes is an area of active research. 2.1.1 Meadow Hydrologic Inputs Mountain meadows receive the bulk of their water input through groundwater and surface water inflows from upstream sources, so the size and climatic conditions of the contributing area is an important factor in determining the volume of water flow through the meadow. Because the area of the meadows is usually small relative to its contributing area, direct precipitation and infiltration are less critical than upstream and groundwater inputs. 5 The amount and distribution of groundwater inputs are primarily controlled by the geology of the area, in particular the hydraulic conductivity (K) of the meadow sediments, or alluvium, and surrounding bedrock. These values can be wide ranging. The relationship between bedrock K, meadow alluvium K, and inflow rate affects the movement and distribution of groundwater (Hill and Mitchell-Bruker 2010). For example, if the hydraulic conductivity of the meadow alluvium is lower than the hydraulic conductivity of the surrounding bedrock, the inflow rate will be slow and last longer (Loheide et al. 2009; Hill and MitchellBruker 2010). Bedrock K values can also vary spatially within a meadow due to differences in the underlying rock type, as well as the location of features such as fractures and springs; similarly K values of the meadow alluvium often vary spatially with inclusions of finer or coarser sediment such as clay lenses. Incision generally does not significantly affect this element of the hydrological system but can cut through less permeable layers to more permeable ones below, which can affect the rate of water movement through the system. A study on nine meadows in the southern Sierra showed a common stratification pattern, where coarse (sand and cobble) layers are overlain by medium sand and silt, which are topped by fine grained and organic materials (Anderson and Smith 1994). This stratification pattern is indicated in Figure 1, and could very importantly affect meadow hydrologic response to incision and restoration (Merrill 2011). Surface water inputs are controlled by upstream factors, and can take several paths once entering the meadow system. The water can be lost to surface outflow and evaporation, or contribute to storage by infiltration in the channel and floodplain. Incised channels are less connected to their historical floodplains and more confined within increasingly eroded channels. During high flows, the water’s energy is focused within the incised channel rather than dissipated across the meadow floodplain. This process results in higher in-channel flow velocities and increased streambank and streambed erosion that can further erode the incised channel and yield destructive downstream flood flows (Lindquist et al. 1997). Shallower (i.e. restored) channels have a lower bankfull capacity, and therefore, have a higher likelihood of flooding, saturating, and recharging groundwater levels in the meadow. 2.1.2 Meadow Hydrologic Outputs Water exits the meadow mainly through evapotranspiration and surface water stream flow. Evapotranspiration is a function of depth to the water table for two reasons: water closer to the surface is more likely to evaporate directly, and vegetation communities and their corresponding transpiration rates are controlled by soil moisture. Incised channels and gullies provide for more rapid drainage of meadow soils, which profoundly alters seasonal soil moisture conditions and can result in conversion of wet meadow plant communities dominated by sedges and rushes, to mesic communities dominated by mesic forbs and grasses, to dry plant communities such as those dominated by sagebrush (Weixelman et al. 2002, Menke et al. 1996). Since there is less soil water available and these dry meadow plant communities typically have a lower transpiration rate, incision has the effect of decreasing evapotranspiration (Loheide and Gorelick 2005). Surface water stream flow removes water from the meadow by acting as a sink for groundwater. In incised systems, this effect is enhanced because a deeper channel can access more groundwater, and also increases the rate of discharge by steepening the groundwater head gradient. According to a model created by Hammersmark et al (2008), restoration decreases total outflow and shortens the duration of base flow by increasing evapotranspiration and groundwater storage. However, empirical measurements from Trout Creek in the Tahoe area (Tague et al. 2007) show that restoration can increase stream flow during the period of snowmelt recession in June and July during some water year types. Work by Loheide and Gorelick (2007) suggests that the extra groundwater stored in restored systems can move down the meadow and may result in local groundwater recharge and increase downstream discharge. In general, the effects of incision and restoration on the timing and amount of stream outflow are site specific and sources of variation are not well understood. 6 2.1.3 Meadow Water Storage Groundwater represents the main storage capacity in meadows, and is determined by the overall depth and texture of the meadow alluvium, and the depth of the channel. Channel incision has the effect of decreasing storage by draining groundwater from the meadow to the stream, until the water table reaches the depth of the channel. Perennial (year-round) streams downstream of incised meadows can often become intermittent or dry due to loss of water storage capacity in meadow aquifers that feed them (Lindquist, Bowie and Harrison 1997). This positive feedback between channel incision and increased stream power has led to channel incision exceeding 20 feet in some meadows of the Sierra Nevada (Lindquist et al. 1997). In contrast, a healthy meadow ecosystem supports mesic to wet vegetation such as sedges, rushes, grasses, willows and other riparian species that can withstand naturally occurring erosive conditions and fortify stream banks. Surface water storage also occurs temporarily in restored or pristine meadow systems either from surface water flooding or when the water table exceeds the surface of the meadow and ponding occurs (Hammersmark et al. 2008). This reduces the downstream flood peak and can provide recharge to the groundwater through infiltration, but is not a long-term storage reservoir. Water passes through a meadow with an incised channel more quickly, reducing the water’s residence time and minimizing the positive filtering effects meadows can otherwise have on water quality (Merrill 2006, Stubblefield et al. 2006, Naiman et al. 2005). 2.2 Meadow Restoration Effects on a Select Set of Ecosystem Services Scientific understanding of the consequences of meadow restoration is not well developed. And often the academic, scientific work is not well integrated with the monitoring and evaluation work of practitioners on the ground. The level of understanding and experience varies across the set of ecosystem services. Those services that are easy to directly observe and measure – like changes in plant communities, forage and wildlife – are better documented and understood than services that are more difficult to observe – like groundwater and water quality. Restoration of incised meadows has been found to affect downstream flow, increase flood attenuation, reduce bank erosion, increase sediment storage, and improve rangeland productivity and habitat for meadow dependent species. Here we present the results and methods of the available research on these topics. Each service is considered in light of the direction and magnitude of the change brought by “restoration.” Meadows themselves can vary widely; thus, there will not always be a generalizable result with respect to these ecosystem services. Furthermore, the specific conditions of a given site may affect the relative magnitude of these services. 2.2.1 Reduced bank erosion and fine sediment storage Native meadow sedges have extremely long and dense root and rhizome networks that are inherently resistant to erosion and that help maintain wet soils through much of the summer (Micheli and Kirchner 2002a, Micheli and Kirchner 2002b, Kleinfelder et al. 1992). Healthy mountain meadows support these graminoid communities, while hydrologically altered meadows do not (Loheide and Gorelick, 2007). Channel banks occupied by these sedge species erode much more slowly than channel banks supporting other vegetation (Micheli and Kirchner 2002a); thus these species help maintain the integrity and shape of the meadow channel and reduce bank erosion rates. Channels in healthy meadows meander and are therefore longer than straightened incised channels, but channels in healthy meadows generally do not increase in depth or width over time. 7 As described above, high flows often overtop the channel in healthy meadows, slowing the water and allowing for sediment deposition on the meadow floodplain. Thus, hydrologically functional meadows reduce sediment loading in two ways: bank erosion and sediment input is decreased, and suspended sediment already in the stream when entering the meadow is captured in the meadow floodplain. By filtering out suspended sediment, healthy riparian vegetation builds streambanks and increase the seasonal quantity and quality of water released for downstream ecosystems and human uses (Lindquist, Bowie and Harrison 1997). Estimates on erosion rates from incised channels and sediment capture rates from hydrologically functional meadows are provided in Table 3. We based our estimates of channel bank sediment erosion rates through comparison of pre-restoration incised versus restored channel sizes (volumes) in the Feather, Bear-Pit, and South Lake Tahoe (Trout Creek) drainages. Details on these estimates can be found below. Table 3. Sediment loading effects of meadow restoration in three meadows in the Sierra Nevada. Source Meadow name and location Acres restored 2NDNATURE 2NDNATURE Sagraves, 1998 Cornwell and Brown, 2008 Hammersmark et al. 2008 Trout Creek Trout Creek Big Flat Meadow Clarks Meadow 67 67 47 68 Reduction in annual sediment loading with restoration (tons/yr) 491a 198 b 738-1108 b 1804-2706 b Bear Creek Meadow 568 3607 b Notes: a This rate includes sediment deposition on the floodplain as well as reduced bank erosion with restoration. b This rate only accounts for sediment loading from channel erosion and does not include sediment retention from overbank flooding. Trout Creek estimates on suspended sediment storage and reduced channel erosion Trout Creek drains an area of 106 km2 in the southern part of the Lake Tahoe Basin. In 2001, 2,700 m of stream channel were restored between Pioneer Trail and Martin Avenue in the city of South Lake Tahoe, and replaced with 3,400 m of a shallower, meandering new channel. USGS gages above and below the restoration site provide discharge and sediment load data. 2ndNature LLC has developed a series of models in order to determine the effects of stream restoration on sediment retention in the stream reach. Factors include increased storage on the stream floodplain due to higher likelihood of overbank flow, and a decrease in bank erosion as a result of greater bank stability from vegetation and slower water movement in the channel. The simplest model uses currently available data and takes into account sediment loads at different discharge rates and the probability of overbank discharge to calculate sediment deposition; channel topography and soil bulk density are used to estimate changes in erosion. Simply decreasing erosion within the channel reduces the load by 198 ton/year. Sediment which enters the restored meadow from upstream is deposited on the floodplain during more frequent overbank flow events, reducing the total loading rate by roughly 293 ton/year. The combination of these two factors results in a total decrease of 491 tons/year. Since this model assumes that all sediment carried onto the floodplain stays there, total deposition is probably overestimated. This estimate also does not account for the frequency of different discharge levels, floodplain topography and roughness, more complicated channel erosion, bank stratigraphy, or differences in lithology. 8 Big Flat Meadow (Sagrave, 1998) This estimate is based on a rough calculation of the difference in size between the channel before and after restoration. Information on the pre-restoration channel size is very limited, but estimated to be 10-15 feet deep, 15-100 ft wide, and 3000 ft long, with an estimated capacity of 1,878,000 cubic feet. The new channel is 1-2 ft deep, 6-9 ft wide, and 4050 ft long with a volume of about 8100 cubic feet. The difference is 1,869,900 cubic feet eroded over approximately 100 years (based on the historical record), so the pre-restoration rate of erosion is estimated at 18,700 cubic feet/year. Using a bulk density of 0.06243 tons/cubic foot, this corresponds to 1167 tons/year. This does not take into account any sediment deposited on the floodplain, and assumes post-restoration erosion is zero. Clarks Meadow (Cornwell and Brown 2008) This estimate was calculated similarly to the estimate of erosion rate for Big Flat Meadow. In this case, the site consists of an upper, restored meadow and a lower, unrestored meadow. Assuming the restored channel was at one point similar in shape to the unrestored channel, the difference in volumes represents an approximation of the sediment eroded over the last 100 years. The unrestored channel is about 3 m deep, 40 m wide with a cross sectional area of 120 square meters. The restored channel is about 1 m deep, 5 m long, with a cross sectional area of 5 square meters, so the difference in areas is 115 square meters. The length of the stream reach is 1070 m long, so the difference in volume would be 123,050 cubic meters. It is not known when erosion started so we estimate 100-150 years ago, giving a range of erosion rates from 1804 to 2706 tons/year, depending on the denominator. This does not take into account any sediment deposited on the floodplain, and assumes post-restoration erosion is zero. Bear Creek (Hammersmark et al. 2008) Prior to restoration, Bear Creek had a cross sectional area of 25 square meters and was 3200 m long (Figures 3 and 4 in Hammersmark et al. 2008). Post-restoration, the channel cross-sectional area was reduced to 4 square meters, and the stream reach was lengthened to 3600 m. Erosion has been occurring since 1960, when Bear Creek was channelized (Poore 2003). The difference in volume is a 65,600 cubic meters, which corresponds to 3607 tons/year over 40 years. This simple calculation does not take into account any sediment deposited on the floodplain, and assumes post-restoration erosion is zero. 2.2.2 Improved Productivity for Rangelands The Sierra Nevada currently support at least 100,000 hectares (over 400 square miles) of meadows, some of which is rangeland on both public and private lands (CDFG 2005, California Department of Conservation 2006). Many of these meadows, especially those classified as moist and dry, can support grazing if it is done appropriately. Meadows that are hydrologically functional (either as a result of restoration or due to lack of historical impacts) have higher productivity than dried or degraded ones and therefore generate more forage and can support more livestock than degraded meadows, if grazed appropriately (SNEP 2006). Studies have shown that grazing systems that are well tailored to a particular meadow can support more livestock without causing ecological degradation (SNEP 2006).. Much has been learned about sustainable grazing practices in recent decades, and with appropriate monitoring and adaptive management, these lands can support local farms into the future (SNEP 2006). Meadow Plant Communities Meadow community types were organized by the moisture regime and the key plant species present (see Table 4). In a degraded meadow where incised channels have affected the hydrogeologic functioning of the meadow, more of the meadow will be made up of the dry plant communities. Restored meadows will 9 move towards a mix of wet and mesic plant communities. Changes in the extent of these types of meadow communities can be used to gage changes in onsite productivity in terms of forage quantity and quality. This paper focuses on the xeric, moist, and wet hydrologic regimes, assuming that the intermediate types, dry and wet mesic, are bounded by the other three types (Table 4). These classifications were compared with the well-known publication by Ratliff (1985) in which meadows in the Sierra Nevada are assigned to five hydro-geomorphic groups. The productivity of meadows vary by condition in terms of both quantity and quality of forage produced; each of these aspects are quantified below. Table 4 Meadow plant community types by hydrologic regime, cross-walked with Ratliff 1985 meadow classification Hydrologic regime Early season Mid season Late season Groundwater levels (cm from surface) Dry Dry mesic -10 to -50' >-100' >-100' 0 to -10 -50 to -100 -50 to -100 Moist 0 to -10 -20 to -50' -50 to -100' Vegetation Community Types: common names Kentucky bluegrass with forbs Vegetation Community Types: scientific names (classification sources) Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous Stands (1) Sagebrush with grass understory Short-hair sedge Kentucky bluegrass turf Small-winged sedge meadows Kentucky bluegrass turf Nebraska sedge meadows Artemisia tridentata ssp. vaseyana Shrubland Alliance (1, 2) Carex filifolia Herbaceous Alliance (1) Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous Stands (1) Carex microptera Provisional Herbaceous Alliance Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous Stands (1) Carex nebrascensis Herbaceous Alliance (1) Shorthair sedge - Shorthair reedgrass Plant Association Tufted hair grass meadows Corn lily, Arrow-leaved groundsel, largeleaved lupine Beaked sedge and blister sedge meadows Cross-walk to Ratliff 1985 Xeric Normal, Xeric Calamagrostis breweri Vegetative Series (3), Shorthair sedge - Shorthair reedgrass Plant Association (4) Deschampsia caespitosa Herbaceous Alliance (1) Veratrum californicum Herbaceous Alliance (1) Normal Carex (utriculata, vesicaria) Herbaceous Alliance (1) Few-flowered Spikerush Vegetation Series; Few flowered spikerush/Primrose Eleocharis pauciflora Vegetation Series (3); Eleocharis monkey flower Plant Association pauciflora/Mimulus primuloides (4) Jones's sedge turf Carex jonesii Herbaceous Alliance (1) Wet-moist Kentucky bluegrass turf 0 to -10 -10 to 20' -10 to -50' Wet 0 to -10 0 to -10 0 to -10 Narrow leaved sedge/Kentucky bluegrass meadow Tufted hair grass meadows Beaked sedge and blister sedge meadows Slender Spikerush Vegetation Series Few-flowered Spikerush Vegetation Series (Ratliff 1985); Few flowered spikerush/Primrose monkey flower Plant Association (Potter 2005) Narrow leaved sedge meadows Nebraska sedge meadows Pale spikerush marshes Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous Stands (1) Carex angustata/Poa pratensis (5) Deschampsia caespitosa Herbaceous Alliance (1) Hanging, Normal Carex (utriculata, vesicaria) Herbaceous Alliance (1) Eleocharis tenuis vegetation series Eleocharis pauciflora Vegetation Series (3); Eleocharis pauciflora/Mimulus primuloides (4) Carex angustata (5) Carex nebrascensis Herbaceous Alliance (1) Eleocharis macrostachya Herbaceous Alliance (1) Hanging, Lotic (1) Sawyer, Keeler-Wolf and Evans (2008) (2) Not exact fit to published vegetation type (3) Ratliff (1985) (4) Potter (2005) (5) Allen-Diaz (1991) Meadow Community and Forage Quantity Figures for forage production rates for dry, moist and wet meadows in the Sierra Nevada emerge from a number of studies (see Appendix 2 for details) and estimates are presented in the figure and table below. Assumptions are that wet and moist vegetation community types represent restored meadows whereas dry vegetation community types represent degraded or unrestored meadows. The data from these studies suggest that moist meadows produce about five times the biomass as wet meadows and that wet meadows produce 4 times the biomass of dry meadows. The variability within the sample is large and further effort may be needed to control for other factors that may underpin these observed differences. 10 Figure 2. Annual Forage Productivity Table 5. Annual Forage Productivity Statistics. Meadow Type Dry Moist Wet Median Productivity (lbs/ acre) 517 2,477 1,922 25% quartile 322 1,654 1,625 75% quartile 666 2,958 2,712 Notes: based on literature, as detailed in Appendix 2 Meadow Community and Forage Quality Forage quality is another factor that can influence the on-site changes in livestock productivity that occurs with meadow restoration. Results of work on meadows in the Sierra by Tate et al. (2011) provides an indication of the increased weight gain in cattle due to increased meadow forage quality as you transition from dry to moist to wet meadow plant community types. Forage quality is measured in terms of protein, fiber (digestibility) and phosphorous. The season is divided into early, mid and late seasons as 45-day increments from June through September. The authors then used existing literature and professional judgment to estimate changes in forage quality parameters during each season and applied these data to the Oklahoma State University’s Cowculator (http://139.78.104.1/exten/cowculator/; accessed on 28 Novmber 2011) to arrive at potential weight gain for “stocker” cattle, with unrestricted grazing over a 45 day period (see Table 6). 11 Table 6. Weight Gain by Meadow Condition Meadow Type Seasons Dry Moist Wet 2.2.3 Early 1.74 1.86 1.84 Weight Gain (lbs/day Mid 1.27 1.71 1.68 Late 0.92 1.58 1.27 Improved Habitat for Target Meadow-Dependent Species Mountain meadows are key habitats for many Sierran animal species because they provide water and shade availability during the three to six month dry season, promote lower summer stream temperatures, higher plant productivity, increased insect prey availability, and special vegetation structures such as willow thickets (Graber 1996). Moreover, these ecologically rich oases often occur along riparian corridors, linking meadow to meadow and creating movement pathways across the broader landscape. The health and connectivity of these ecological corridors are critical for maintaining genetic diversity within species since these corridors facilitate interbreeding among distant populations and because they enable animals (and, usually more slowly, plants) to find new areas to inhabit. In the face of climate change and growing development pressures, these corridors can be lifelines for these species. The Sierra Nevada mountain range includes about two-thirds of the bird and mammal species and about half the reptiles and amphibians in the State of California (Graber 1996). Meadows and the niches they create are biodiversity hotspots that animal species, particularly birds and amphibians, frequent for foraging, nesting, and other important parts of their life cycles (Graber 1996). Ecotones between meadow fields and forest edges also support many species, including the great grey owl, Swainson’s thrush (Catharus ustulatus), and the western red bat (Lasiurus blossevillii; CDFG 2008). During summer months, montane meadows are considered the single most important habitat in the Sierra Nevada for birds (Graber 1996). Meadows with streams that flow through them are also important habitat for native trout and other aquatic species (Moyle et al. 1996). Mid-elevation meadows have been shown by recent studies to be critical habitat for several amphibian, mollusk, and invertebrate species (Kattelmann 1996). Soil arthropod and microorganism communities are commonly highly diverse and complex in meadow ecosystems (Lattin 1990). 12 Photo 1. Meadows, such as this one along Sagehen Creek in Nevada County, support a wide diversity of plant species. (Photograph by A.G. Merrill) Approximately 30 rare taxa of vascular plants and bryophytes are found solely in mountain meadows and plant species are extremely diverse within individual and across several meadows (Weixelman et al. 2000). This diversity is directly related to the elevation and seasonal fluctuations of a water table (AllenDiaz 1991, Ratliff 1985). Animal species can be grouped as dependant or partially dependant on meadow ecosystems. In the Sierra, eighty-two terrestrial vertebrate species are considered dependent on riparian and meadow habitat, 24% of which are at risk (Graber 1996). Nineteen species of high vulnerability, including Swainson's thrush, long-eared owl (Asio otus), and western red bat, are dependent upon meadow ecosystems. Twenty-seven animal species of moderate vulnerability are also dependent on meadows and an additional 75 species of moderate vulnerability are known to use meadow ecosystems either sometime during the lifecycle or when meadows are accessible. In addition, several Threatened, Endangered, and Sensitive (TES) species of fishes occur in streams flowing through meadows. Given the large percentage of native species that depend on healthy meadows, restoration of currently degraded mountain meadow habitat is expected to have important and broad positive effects on plant and animal biodiversity for the Sierra Nevada Region. As described in the preceding sections, restoration of hydrologically impaired meadows can result in a dramatic conversion from dry upland vegetation types to moist and wet vegetation types. The distribution and likely populations of several meadow dependent species are limited by the availability of moist/wet meadow habitat. Strategically placed restoration of moist and wet habitat are therefore likely to positively affect these meadow-dependent species, and the many other species that are partially dependant on meadow ecosystems. Improved habitat conditions have been quantified on a percentage of the optimum conditions in several well accepted and applied methodologies such as the Habitat Evaluation Procedure (HEP) used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Habitat Evaluation Procedure handbook. http://www.fws.gov/policy/esmindex.html). In the sections below, brief summaries are provided of the habitat requirements and expected responses to meadow restoration associated with four focal meadow species in the Sierra Nevada: great gray owl, Willow Flycatcher, the Yosemite toad, and Lahonton trout. 13 Willow Flycatcher The Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii) is a Forest Service sensitive species, a species of special concern by US Fish and Wildlife, and is listed as a California endangered species by the State. Currently, half of the California breeding population of the Willow Flycatcher is in the Sierra Nevada. Reduction of wetland ecosystems combined with widespread meadow degradation has led to a drastic population decline of the Willow Flycatcher (Green et al. 2003). Willow Flycatcher populations across the West are facing serious declines based largely upon such habitat loss and degradation. Willow Flycatchers dwell along higher elevation (4000-8000 ft) streams and wet meadows and depend on nesting cover and foraging opportunity in willow thickets and similar plant communities that commonly occur near slow-moving, or still water (Region 2 USFWS, 2002; Green et al. 2003). Willow Flycatchers eat insects and several studies have linked insect abundance with hydrologic and riparian vegetation conditions (Gosselink and Turner 1978, Voigts 1976, Weller 1978). Drainage of meadows limits this food source, and allows trees to encroach, reducing habitat for flycatchers and providing habitat for predators such as squirrels and weasels; fire suppression has a similar effect. Cowbird parasitism of flycatcher nests has increased with closer proximity to livestock, agriculture, and other disturbances. Hydrologic restoration of incised meadows, with plantings of willows along the newly formed channels, can increase the type of habitat known to support Willow Flycatcher populations. Habitat isolation is also an issue as suitable land is degraded. However, since meadows are inherently patchy, it is not known if this will have a significant impact on breeding (Bombay et al. 2000, Green et al. 2003). Current populations of Willow Flycatchers are now very low in the Sierra Nevada, so it would be important that any restoration project targeting this species ensure access to the meadow by an existing breeding population (Rodney Siegel, pers. comm. with Amy Merrill April 2011). As part of the Record of Decision (2005) for the Sierra Nevada Forest Plan Amendment (SNFPA) Final Environmental Impact Statement, the Forest Service adopted Standards and Guidelines to monitoring existing and historical Willow Flycatcher habitat, restore degraded meadow habitats that are known to have supported the species in the past, and protect currently occupied areas from livestock grazing impacts (see S2 in Forest Service 2005) (accessed online on 28 November 2011 at: http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/snfpa/finalseis/vol1/appendix-a/aquatic-riparian/wf.html and http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/snfpa/final-seis/rod/thedecision/). 14 Photo 2. Willow Flycatcher prefers willow thickets for insect foraging (photographs by M.J. Hopiak [left] and A.G. Merrill [right]) Great gray owl Great gray owl (Strix nebulosa), designated as Threatened Species by the State of California and a sensitive species by Region 5 of the Forest Service, requires special management emphasis to avoid federal listing (Beck and Winter 2000). Great gray owls (GGOW) are dependent on dense forests and productive meadows. Great gray owl habitat is diminishing because of forest and range management practices. Green tree and salvage harvest activities can eliminate nest trees and grazing practices remove cover necessary for GGOW prey (small mammals). Similarly, prescribed burning can remove potential nest snags and downed woody material needed for small mammal habitat. Virtually all GGOW recorded in California were found in or near montane meadows (Winter 2000, as cited in Beck and Winter 2000). Meadows appear to be their preferred foraging habitat because their prey (small mammals) lives in grass-forb covered areas, which do not occur under the dense canopies of the Sierra forests (Winter 1986, as cited in Beck and Winter 2000). Grass-forb habitats adjacent to dense forests rarely exist outside of meadows in the Sierra Nevada, except under thinned or recently burned forests. Clear-cuts and recent burns provide some structural similarity to a meadow ecosystem for a few years before the trees or brush shade out the grasses and forbs. Such sites can provide foraging for nesting GGOWs but only on a short-term basis (Green 1995, as cited in Beck and Winter 2000). Only 17 natural nests have been found in California, and 16 of those were in large, broken-topped conifer snags (Green 1995, as cited in Beck and Winter 2000). Of the known GGOW pairs in California most nested within 280 yards of a meadow (Winter 2000, as cited in Beck and Winter 2000). Restoration of hydrologically degraded meadows adjacent to or nearby existing Great gray owl habitat so that graminoid and forb cover is increased to 90% cover, is expected to importantly improve food availability and therefore habitat quality for the Great gray owl (USFS FEIS 2004; USFS 2005). 15 Photo 3. Great gray owls (photograph by Beth Davidow [left] and Art McCloud [right]) Notes: Great gray owls depend on meadow edges for roosting depend on lush, dense graminoid and forb cover in meadows to support large populations of their primary prey: small rodents such as the meadow vole. Yosemite toad Yosemite Toads (Bufo canorus) are small olive-green toads with black spotting, endemic to the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Their primary habitat consists of ponds used as breeding areas and nearby meadows that provide food. Yosemite toads rely on different insect and other invertebrate species for their diet; these generally increase in abundance with increased vegetation cover and water availability. Their primary habitats include wet mountain meadows, willow thickets and forest borders that range from 4,800 to 12,000 feet (1,460 to 3,630 m) elevation, from Ebbets Pass area of Alpine county south to the Spanish Mountains area in Fresno County. The Yosemite Toad has experienced a sharp population decline in recent years. On December 10, 2002, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) concluded that it may warrant protection under the Endangered Species Act. Budgetary constraints precluded the USFWS from listing the toad as threatened or endangered at the time. It is currently a Forest Service Sensitive Species and a California State Species of Special Concern. Many studies concluded that livestock grazing can have detrimental impacts on Yosemite toads through trampling, alteration of meadow habitat, changes in stream hydrology, siltation of springs, bacterial increase from livestock fecal matter, and lowered water quality. There is also evidence that chemical toxins (pesticide drift from the Central Valley) is associated with weakening of the immune system and resistance to other diseases in the Yosemite Toad population (Davidson 2004, Davidson et al. 2002). The current Forest Service policies are to constrain livestock (excluding pack stock) grazing in meadows with known Yosemite toad populations during the toad breeding and rearing season (USFS 2005). In summary, restoration of wet and wet-mesic meadow habitat that is near or adjacent to open water during the first half of the snow-free season, above 4,800 feet elevation and sufficiently close to an existing population for occupation could provide improved quality habitat for Yosemite toad. However, 16 more specific criteria on minimum size and other physical and biological site characteristics would need to be incorporated into a habitat quality ‘scoring’ procedure for this species. Photo 4. Yosemite toads are found in the southern Sierra meadows (photograph by Gary Nafis) Native Sierra Nevada Trout Six native California trout species are moderately or highly dependent on having healthy meadows within their habitats, as interpreted from Moyle et al. 2009. For those six species for which healthy meadows are a part of their native habitat, restoration and/or altered management (control of grazing along stream channels) are often recommended as part of the species conservation and recovery strategies. These species are listed in the following table 7 and summarized in the text below. Table 7. Trout species native to the Sierra Nevada, their legal status and dependence on healthy meadows for supportive habitat. Common name Latin name Legal status California Golden Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita State Species of Special Concern Kern River Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gilberti Oncorhynchus clarki hensawi Oncorhynchus mykiss whitei Oncorhynchus clarki seleniris Oncorhynchus mykiss ssp. State and Federally threatened State and Federally threatened State Species of Special Concern Federally threatened Moderate State Species of Special Concern Yes (Moderate to high) Lahontan Cutthroat Trout Little Kern Golden Trout Paiute Cutthroat Trout Goose Lake Redband Trout 17 Meadows important part of habitat? Yes Moderate Yes (High) Yes (Moderate to high) California golden trout: This species evolved on the Kern River Plateau, with wide meadows and meandering streams. Thus, this fish depends on healthy functioning meadows for its natural habitat. Major threats to the California golden trout include hybridizing with rainbow trout, competition and predation from non-native brown trout, and degradation of streams from livestock grazing (Moyle et al. 2009). Restoration of streams from livestock grazing is one of the top recommendations for improved management to save this species from extinction (Moyle et al. 2009). Kern River Rainbow Trout: Populations of this California species of special concern are limited primarily by loss of habitat due to dam construction and associated loss of habitat, influx of hatchery fish, and heavy fishing pressure. Grazing in riparian areas directly adjacent to the streams, including meadows, is also indicated as a source of habitat degradation. This species is not particularly dependent on small meandering meadow streams. Lahontan Cutthroat Trout: This species is endemic to the western Great Basin and parts of the north eastern Sierra Nevada but occupy an estimated 11% of their pre-European contact habitat. Lahontan cutthroat trout are listed as threatened at both the Federal and State levels (Moyle et al. 2009). The single largest factor affecting this species is competition, predation, and hybridization with introduced nonnative trout. Reintroduction to restored habitat is recommended for areas from which all non-native trout species have been removed. Meadows as part of the important riparian habitat are not mentioned but grazing impacts in riparian areas are listed as an important threat to this species and restoration of adjacent meadow floodplains could be locally important for habitat recovery. Little Kern Golden Trout: This species is endemic to the Kern Plateau best adapted to small meandering meadow streams and their tributaries. The most important threats to the survival of this species include hybridization and competition with rainbow and alien trout species, grazing in riparian areas, and recreational fishing (Moyle et al. 2009). One of the primary conservation recommendations, aside from removal of non-native trout, is cessation of all grazing activities in adjacent meadow riparian areas (Moyle et al. 2009). Paiute cutthroat trout: This rare species was originally listed as Federally endangered in 1967 and downgraded to Federally threatened in 1973 to facilitate management. Paiute cutthroat depend upon small streams and back waters, such as occur in mountain meadows, for early rearing. Most prominent threats to this species include competition, predation, and hybridization with non-native trout, loss of genetic diversity, and habitat loss. The top recommendation is to restore this species to its historic range and remove non-native trout species. Restoration of the fish to its native habitat would entail restoration and proper management of the river channels that run through meadow systems. Goose lake redband trout: This species, local to Willow and Lassen Creeks and several tributaries to the Pit River in northeastern California, were declining in the 1980’s but current populations levels are stable due to implementation of a comprehensive and pro-active conservation strategy implemented over the past 20 years (Moyle et al. 2009). On-going management actions to sustain this species include elimination of livestock grazing from riparian areas, as well as removal of non-native fish from current redband trout habitat (Moyle et al. 2009). 2.2.4 Effects on Downstream Flows As described above, hydrologically functional meadows allow for groundwater recharge during overbank flooding in the meadow and increased groundwater storage in the meadow alluvium. This can result in increased releases to the channel during late season, otherwise referred to as increased base flow. Maintaining stream flow during the late summer dry season supports downstream aquatic ecosystems and is also critical for the human urban and agricultural needs, especially under climate change scenarios that 18 predict reduced water storage in the snow pack (Loheide and Gorelick 2006). However, data reported to date on restoration effects on late season base flow are equivocal and seem to vary with years and the characteristics of each particular meadow and its contributing area. Variability in the effects of meadow restoration on downstream base flow is not yet well understood and this is an area for further research using approaches that involve a combination of both empirical data and hydrologic modeling in a range of meadow types. The literature supporting this conclusion is presented below, along with analysis carried out for this study. Table 7. Effects of meadow restoration on downstream (DS) flows. Source Meadow name and location Feather River Coordinated Resource Management Final Monitoring Report 2009 Red Clover/McReynolds Creek Feather River Coordinated Resource Management Final Monitoring Report 2009 Hammersmark et al. 2008 (see Figure 13) Big Flat Meadow on Cottonwood Creek 47 Bear Creek, Fall River Watershed 568 Trout Creek, Lake Tahoe Basin 107 USGS Gage Data and Allander (2004) Acres restored 400 Change in DS flow (cfs) June -3.1 July -0.88 August -0.99 Sept. -0.95 cfs No discernable change post 2004 augmentation Total annual reduction (most during peak snowmelt) 2005: 23,308,680 cf 2006: 33,125,157 cf Increases of from 5 to 20 cfs for pre-and postrestoration scenarios across wet and dry conditions Red Clover/McReynolds (FCRM 2009) Red Clover and McReynolds Creeks run through the 400 acre Red Clover Valley. In 2006, 3.3 miles of incised channel in the valley were restored with the pond and plug technique. The Feather River Coordinated Resource Management (FCRM) maintains a continuous recording station at Notson Bridge on Red Clover Creek, but it is 9 mi downstream of the restoration site and many tributaries join in the intervening space, so effects of restoration on stream flow is lost in the variability introduced by the tributaries. Additionally, monthly flow measurements have been made by hand directly above and below the restoration site for the year prior to restoration and for 3 years post restoration. Based on these measurements, the downstream flow appears to decrease after restoration (Table 5). While these measurements are more likely to detect restoration effects than the Notson Bridge gage, it is difficult to know if the monthly measurement is representative of the entire month. Also, there is only one year of pre-restoration data from 2005 to use for comparison, and the amount of precipitation has been lower in the post-project years (2007-09) than it was in 2005. Finally, it has been hypothesized that the reduced downstream flow effects associated with the pond and plug technique might be temporary (on the order of a few years), since several years of inflow and reduced outflow might be required to fill the increased storage capacity created through the restoration project. Understanding the short and long term effects on downstream flows, and what meadow or landscape characteristics control them, would be another fruitful avenue of research. Further information can be found in the Red Clover/McReynolds Creek Restoration Project Monitoring Report 2009, available from the Feather River Coordinated Research Management group. 19 Big Flat Meadow in Last Chance Watershed (Sargraves 1998) Big Flat Meadow on Cottonwood Creek lies between the confluences with Fitch Canyon and Stony Creek. The contributing watershed area is approximately 15.5 mi2, with about 1.1 mi2 inputting directly to the meadow (Sagraves 1998). Prior to restoration, the channel running through this 47-acre meadow was incised 15 feet and dewatering the meadow. Restoration in 1995 moved Cottonwood Creek to a newly constructed, 4050-foot long channel using the pond and plug technique; in 2004 the constructed channel bottom was raised with the addition of gravel and cobbles. Prior to restoration, stream gages were installed in Cottonwood Creek in 1994 above and below the meadow restoration site, providing continuously recorded stream flow data. No significant changes in base flow were recorded. However, the stage-rating curve used around the time of restoration (1994-1997) is based on only a few site visits due to access issues from snow and road conditions. The upper site was especially problematic. Since the worst conditions coincided with times of high flow (winter and spring), the rating curves do not cover the full range of flow conditions and any measurements over the rating curve were classified as “over rating” and not used. Due to this and other problems such as changes in channel morphology, we estimate the accuracy of stream flow measurements to be +15 to 25%. There is also only one year of pre-restoration data available, from May 1994 to June 1995, which straddles two water years with very different precipitation regimes (73% and 279% of normal). Comparisons could be made before and after the 2004 modification; however these would not capture the full effect of both the 1995 and 2004 restoration actions. Further information can be found in the report “Results of Stream Flow and Groundwater Monitoring in Cottonwood Creek near Big Flat Meadow: 1994- 1997 Water Years” by Timothy Sagraves. Gage data from 2002-2009 is also available from the Feather River Coordinated Resource Management group. Bear Creek Meadow (Hammersmark et al. 2008) The goal of this study was to quantify the hydrological effects of the pond and plug method on Bear Creek Meadow in northeastern California. In 1999, a 3.6 km (2.2 mi) reach of Bear Creek was restored using this technique. Comparing direct observations of pre- and post-restoration conditions is difficult when only a couple of years of pre- and post-restoration data are available. In order to assess the impacts of meadow restoration with limited data, Hammersmark et al. (2008) developed a hydrological model of the 230 ha (568 acre) Bear Creek Meadow. The model was created and run for the 2005 and 2006 water years, using different floodplain and stream topographies to simulate pre- and post-restoration situations. This meadow system is somewhat atypical in that the bottom layer is low permeability clay so there is very little lateral groundwater inflow from the surrounding bedrock to the meadow. Also, Bear Creek is part of the Fall River watershed, which is heavily spring fed. However, while the exact properties of this meadow may diverge from other mountain meadows, the trends can still be generally applied. The model accounts for each aspect of the meadow hydrological system using a combination of field measurements and values from the literature. Stream inflow and water table elevation was directly measured in the field. Evapotranspiration was calculated based on vegetation properties and distribution, depth to water table, and weather data from a station in the meadow. Subsurface stratigraphic units were surveyed and their hydraulic conductivity was determined by slug test. Other values governing surface water flow and river aquifer interactions were taken from the literature and adjusted in the calibration stage. In order to calibrate the model, the post-restoration model was run for the 2005 water year, and outputs were compared to measured stream flow and water table data. The pre-restoration model was not calibrated because of insufficient data. Differences between the pre and post restoration model include altered channel configuration, meadow surface topography, and initial water table level. Empirical measurements collected under post-restoration conditions during the 2006 water year were used to validate the model. Both the pre- and post-restoration models were then run for 2005 and 2006. 20 By comparing the results of the two models, this study indicates that restoration resulted in measurable differences in hydrologic processes. Overall, the shallower channel resulted in higher groundwater levels, more groundwater storage, and more overbank flow. Also, evapotranspiration was calculated to be higher as a result of the higher water table and exposed ponds. Evapotranspiration increases are actually underestimated because this study does not account for the change in vegetation communities that occur after restoration, e.g. from dryland shrubs and grasses to wet meadow sedges, so the pre-restoration evapotranspiration values are probably smaller than reported. This increase in groundwater storage and evapotranspiration also has the effect of decreasing total annual runoff 1 to 2 percent and decreasing the duration of base flow by approximately 16 days. However, while there is no conclusive data, observations suggest that groundwater will move down the valley and discharge into the stream lower down, especially where the restored stream transitions to an unaltered incised channel. Hammersmark and others (2008) report a small increase in downstream base flow below the restored reach where the channel is again incised, but this increase in downstream flow is likely due to the incised channel accessing groundwater stored in the upstream restored area. Thus, were the downstream channel not incised, this groundwater would not flow into the channel but rather remain stored in the meadow alluvium (pers. comm. C. Hammersmark with A. Merrill April 25, 2011). Trout Creek Meadow Restoration (Allander 2004; Valentine 2006; Tague et al. 2007) Trout Creek drains an area of 106 km2 in the southern part of the Lake Tahoe Basin. In 2001, 2,700 m of an incised stream channel were replaced with 3,400 m of a shallower, meandering new channel between Pioneer Trail and Martin Ave. in the city of South Lake Tahoe. USGS gages above and below the restoration site provide continuous discharge data. Cold Creek enters Trout Creek above the downstream gage but below the upstream gage. In a master’s thesis, Valentine (2006) examined flows for 1961 through 2005 at the two Trout Creek gages and found that August base flows decreased after restoration but found no significant change in September base flow. Valentine did find an increase in groundwater levels and found that the linkage between groundwater depth and stream flow strengthened following restoration. In a subsequent journal article led by Valentine’s thesis advisor Tague, the authors found the opposite: that restoration did increase summer water availability in riparian areas (Tague et al. 2008). However, Valentine does not discuss Cold Creek inputs and Tague et al (2008) state that flow contributions from Cold Creek are relatively small. This appears to be an incorrect assumption. In his master’s thesis Allander (2004) gaged Cold Creek over the 2001 to 2003 period demonstrating that Cold Creek inputs are significant and more or less proportional to the respective drainage areas. Cold Creek’s drainage area at 9,600 acres is 54% of the size of the Trout Creek drainage above the upstream gage on Trout Creek. Thus, it stands to reason that Trout Creek inputs are therefore non trivial and need to be deducted before assessing meadow gains and losses due to restoration. The analysis and conclusion in Tague et al. (2008) therefore needs further investigation. To this end Allander’s (2004) work provides a useful input in the form of a significant relationship (equation) that can be used to derive daily mean Cold Creek inputs to Trout Creek. These inputs are calculated for the 1990 to 2010 period and then deducted from gaged flows at the downstream Trout Creek gage. Flows at the upstream gage are then compared to flows at the downstream gage to assess if there are gains or losses on a daily basis. Data for representative normal (~80% of average), dry (~50% of average), and wet water (~190% of average) years were selected from before and after the 2001 restoration project for comparison. Charts of the hydrographs and the gain/loss calculations are provided in Appendix 3. While the total discharges in each of these compared pairs are roughly similar, timing of rainfall, snowmelt and initial conditions are different, so the analysis shows only an approximate comparison. Over all three water year types, the wet year showed the clearest difference between pre- and post- 21 restoration. While both sets of data show a release of water from the meadow in July, the post-restoration year shows a more rapid decline in the release (<5 cfs), whereas the pre-restoration year shows a larger and sustained release through the end of August (5-10 cfs). The hydrographs are quite similar for the two years, with the exception that the pre-restoration year peaks some 6 days later. It seems unlikely that this could drive the longer period of release flow observed pre-restoration. Thus, the wet year shows a much higher release of late summer water from the unrestored meadow. The 80% water year features fairly short-lived peak flows in both years, with the post-restoration year peaking at twice the flow as for the pre-restoration year (in late May and early June). Both years show substantial water storage (losses) in the reach during or after these peak flows. Both then show releases of water for a month to a month and a half immediately thereafter. These releases tail off to near zero by mid-August. The response is stronger in the post-restoration year (in the 10-20 cfs range) than the prerestoration year (< 5 cfs). This is quite likely related to the strength and duration of the peak flows observed throughout June. Again, both pre- and post-restoration provide late season water. In this year the effect is more exaggerated in the post-restoration case, though this is probably in good part due to the difference in hydrographs between the two years. Finally, the post-restoration dry year also has a longer duration and higher peak flow input above the meadow than the pre-restoration dry year. The results suggest that the post-restoration meadow is storing water in the April to May time frame and releasing it during July and into August (<4 cfs). For the prerestoration scenario the meadow is largely releasing water during the winter and spring months and then effectively passes water through during the summer months, much as expected. Although the difference in hydrographs makes this an inexact comparison; the dry year case does provide evidence of storage and release of flow as per the generic expectations for a restored meadow. Thus, in dry years, meadow restoration in Trout Creek does appear to increase late season flow; however it seems that as water years trend towards normal and wet years, this effect diminishes. The surface area of meadow restored is not cited in the studies reviewed here, but from aerial imagery it appears perhaps to be on the order of 100 or so acres. Information from the California Tahoe Conservancy suggests that 107 acres were restored. Assuming that changes in evapotranspiration range are approximately 3.6 mm during peak growing season (July, August through mid-September; Hammersmark et al. 2008), net summer time changes in losses to evapotranspiration for a 107 acre meadow are roughly one acre-foot per day. Thus, the flow releases observed in the analysis above would be impacted only to a limited degree by changes in evapotranspiration from such acreage. If this is an approximately correct figure for the restored acres, then the explanation to the variability in stream flow response documented in this analysis of Trout Creek would appear to rest with the role of groundwater inputs through the alluvium, groundwater storage, transmissivity in the sub-surface, and stream gains and losses. 2.2.5 Increasing Flood Attenuation Hydrologically functional meadows with perennial and intermittent streams dissipate stream energy from high flows and enhance floodwater retention and groundwater recharge. Functioning meadow systems have channels with higher width to depth ratios and therefore flood more readily than incised channels. As the water flows out over the meadow floodplain, flow velocities are slowed and flood waters infiltrate and are partially retained in the meadow soils, vegetation, and subsurface aquifers (Ponce and Lindquist 1990, Linquist and Wilcox 2000, Hammersmark et al. 2008). Results from several studies in the northern Sierra indicate that restoring meadows attenuates peak flows and increases water storage capacity (Sagraves 1998, Hammersmark et al. 2008, Cornwell and Brown 2008a); however only Hammersmark et al. (2008) provides quantitative estimate of the downstream flood attenuation through hydrologic modeling. Flood attenuation provided by meadows has a direct impact on the hydrologic response of the watershed to seasonal precipitation. Meadows in the headwaters have the potential to increase the 22 systems’ storage capacity, attenuate flood events and reduce peak flows by providing a buffer to water and sediment transport processes associated with large rain events. Table 8. Modeling studies on effects of meadow restoration on downstream flood peak flows (flood attenuation). Source Meadow name and location Acres restored Change in DS flood attenuation (cfs) Hammersmark et al. 2008 Bear Creek 568 129-179 Bear Creek (Hammersmark et al. 2008) As described previously, Hammersmark et al. (2008) developed a model of Bear Creek that was run for the 2005 and 2006 water years for both pre- and post restoration conditions. The study showed that there was an increase in frequency and duration of flooding due to decreased channel capacity. Surface water storage on the floodplain increased as well, which reduced the downstream flood peak heights by 129-179 cfs. The floodplain storage was temporary: most of the water returned to the channel downstream, and the rest infiltrated or evaporated. 2.2.6 Carbon Storage Sierra meadows experience a change in plant community type and overall plant biomass with restoration: in many cases sparse cover of annual grasses and forbs and scattered sagebrush is replaced with dense thatch of sedge and willow species with similarly dense rooting structures (Chambers and Miller 2004, Lindquist and Wilcox 2000). Studies in restored versus unrestored meadows in the Feather River watershed show that restoring meadows could provide a one-time increase in below ground Carbon (C) stores by 110 to 220 CO2e tons per acre over a 2 to 10 yr post-restoration period (Wilcox et. al unpublished project results 2009). Other studies show slower, but significant on-going C sequestration rates in healthy meadows (Norton et al. 2011 [`~65 CO2e tons/acre of soil carbon difference between non-functioning and properly functioning meadows]) and that nitrous oxide and methane emissions from mountain meadows are likely several orders of magnitude (in CO2e tons acre-1 yr-1) lower than C sequestration rates (Schlesinger 1997, Merrill 2001). During the initial post-restoration years, these numbers are comparable to estimated rates of CO2e sequestration for Delta fresh water wetlands and redwood forests (Fuji 2008; Brown et al. for Winrock International 2004). 3. Review of Economic Studies As part of preparation for the case studies an effort was made to collect literature that has attempted to investigate either the evaluation or the valuation of the costs and benefits associated with Sierra Meadows, and particularly the costs and benefits of their restoration. The literature found is fairly limited on the topic of meadows per se, as well as valuation work on specific ecosystem benefits. A few authors have tried to look at forage and hydrological benefits of meadow restoration, but no work was found on the economics of gains in fish and wildlife habitat. With regard to changes in economic productivity that result from meadow restoration, valuation of the quantity changes requires information on how productivity of the system changes with restoration, as well as how that change is valued (priced) in the economy. In the case where these changes are in commodities, such as cattle (beef) and water, such information is available. In others, like flood attenuation and sedimentation, evaluation of the economic 23 consequences of such changes is difficult and very, very site specific. In this section an effort is made to cover each of the main benefits and report on what can be drawn on from available information sources to inform the valuation effort in Section 4. 3.1 Economic Evaluation of Sierra Meadows Restoration and Related Studies There is a large literature on the economic analysis of watershed restoration, including the valuation of downstream hydrologic impacts (Aylward 2004; Aylward and Hartwell 2010; Clark et al. 1985; Gregersen et al. 1987; Mouraille et al. 1996). Little to none of this literature, however, pertains directly to meadow restoration, particularly in the Sierra. Cognizant of the findings of various reviews of this larger literature, a brief review of literature specifically on meadows was conducted for this paper. Not surprisingly the literature found is small in numbers consisting just of three papers (Ingram and Loomis 1989; ICF Jones & Stokes 2008; Buckley et al. 2011). A detailed review of each of these papers is provided in Appendix 4. Perhaps most interesting is the effort in 1989 by Ingram and Loomis. At that time economic analysis of watersheds was a popular topic in the international literature. In California, Ingram and Loomis started out with the intent of conducting an economic evaluation of the impacts of the Red Clover Creek meadow restoration project in the Feather River system. While the report delved into a number of topics in the end the authors chose not to carry out such an analysis for the reasons stated as follows: ...it became clear early on that much of the physical and biological data necessary has not been collected. Nor are all of the requisite predictive mechanisms (quantitative models; methods relying on professional judgment) available. Although this is in part due to the fact that not all of the effects of the recently-installed Red Clover project have begun occurring, it is nonetheless clear that the a prior evaluation of such projects will require certain baseline data, as well as appropriate predictive capabilities. It is perhaps this report’s main contribution that such prerequisites are clearly identified (Ingram and Loomis 1989:2). It is worth remarking that the considerable difficulty experienced in Section 2 of this paper in finding well-documented case studies that provide reliable and significant analyses of project hydrological (and other) impacts suggests that there was little uptake of the recommendations put forth in the Ingram and Loomis paper and that the information that has since been generated is difficult to track down and not organized into a single library (other than the FCRM website). While the paper covers a wide swath of ground with respect to the economic methods that may be deployed these methods are clearly not the impediment to the analysis. In the paper’s recommendations the comment is made that there is a need for interdisciplinary models (i.e. predictive models). Over 20 years later this remains the case. The ICF Jones & Stokes (2008) effort is more of an attempt to evaluate a suite of FCRM projects than an economic analysis. However, it does provide an illustration of an approach to valuing the supposed benefits of increased groundwater storage and late season flow. Suffice it to say that after some debatable and heroic assumptions the study suggests that the benefits of restoration outweigh the costs. The study suffers from fairly simplistic assumptions that all the additional water stored in the ground and not evapotranspired becomes valued late season flow. This assumption and others make the results unreliable as documented in the appendix. Despite this limitation, the Jones & Stokes paper does provide an invaluable source of information on restoration projects and various parameters of importance in meadow evaluation. Finally, a recent paper by ECONorthwest sought to value the ecosystem services associated with restoration of beaver habitat in the Escalante (Buckley et al. 2011). As the paper demonstrates both the utility and complications involved in such an effort and a number of the benefits are similar to those in the case of Sierra meadows this paper is reviewed in the appendix as well. 24 In sum, despite early efforts the science of meadow restoration seems to have yet made it to the point where clear and useful indicators are feeding through into site-specific or generalized economic evaluation of meadow projects. This paper is another attempt at addressing this gap in the literature. 3.2 Valuation of Sierra Meadow Restoration Costs and Ecosystem Services This section reviews the ranges of costs and benefits that may be applied in valuing Sierra meadow restoration projects. Values investigated here are for the types of ecosystem benefits that play into the financial returns to landowners and the economic returns to the economy as a whole. These values and the economic incentives framework are covered in depth in Appendix 1. The discussion here is limited to those costs and inputs for which the change in service level, or outputs, can be measured (as suggested by the literature review of ecosystem services in Section 2 of this paper). 3.2.1 Valuation Techniques and Meadow Restoration Economists have long used a variety of valuation approaches to understand and estimate the value of natural resources – more recently these methods have been applied to value ecosystem services and biodiversity (Freeman 1993). The principal economic valuation methods can be grouped into four different categories based largely on two criteria. The first grouping criteria is based on whether observations of economic behavior take place via participant behavior within ‘real’ markets or whether the behavior is elicited as a hypothetical response to constructed market scenarios. The second criteria is determined by whether monetary values derived from the technique are observed directly in markets or merely inferred from behavior and preferences. These two grouping criteria create four categories: market prices, stated preferences, revealed preferences, and choice modeling (see Figure 3). Figure 3. Economic Valuation Methods by Category Observed Behavior: Market Prices Direct: (Direct Observed) Competitive market prices Shadow-pricing Revealed Preferences Indirect: (Indirect Observed) Productivity methods Avertive (defensive) expenditure Travel cost Hedonic pricing Substitute goods Source: Aylward et al. (2001) Hypothetical Behavior: Stated Preferences (Direct Hypothetical) Contingent Valuation (dichotomous choice, willingness-to-pay, bidding games) Choice Modelling (Indirect Hypothetical) Contingent referendum Contingent ranking Contingent behaviour Contingent rating Pairwise comparisons For the purposes of this exercise the use of sophisticated methods is generally not an option, simply due to availability of resources. Further, in the valuation of ecosystem services per se it is generally understood that so-called productivity methods are the most attractive approach. In the productivity approach the change in production of the service is multiplied by the price of the service as an indicator of the change in value that is generated by a marginal increase/decrease in the service. This approach highlights that establishing the value of the on- and off-site ecosystem benefits is necessarily part the domain of natural science – to estimate the changes in production, and part the province of economics – to estimate the applicable price. In reality economic valuation is about optimizing economic behavior and understanding changes in quantity and price, however this goes beyond the confines of the information available for this paper and the attempt to estimate the costs and benefits of meadow restoration. 25 Instead what may be practical is to gather existing data on how meadow systems respond to restoration activities and try to determine the range of biogeophysical responses. Meadow restoration is a little unusual in that much of the activity takes place in the stream channel, but the direct effect is to change the ecoyhydrology of the meadow itself. So many of the changes in ecosystem service can be estimated as changes that occur per unit area of meadow restored. So for example various indicators of changes in water quantity and timing would include: increase in on-site infiltration and recharge, so water retention during the flood season or flood events increase/decrease in evapotranspiration in the meadow resulting changes in the water balance and the release of flow to downstream use by season (or by month or day . . ) The change in value of these changes in flow will depend on the time of year and what would have happened to the released flow. The value could vary considerably depending on whether the flow from a meadow was destined for: diversion a short way downstream to irrigate low value pasture, diversion/storage further downstream to irrigate high value vegetables storage and subsequent transmission and distribution for municipal and industrial use In the end it may be that the range of values for the change in production – when the possible changes in production and possible variation in prices are accounted for – will be so great as to fail to yield any determinative insight into meadow restoration in general. In other words, in some cases the rancher might have all the incentive needed, in others the rancher might need a substantial incentive. Likewise in some cases meadow restoration might actually impose net costs on downstream and off-site consumers and in others it might generate net benefits that warrant the development of an incentive framework. However, only by making the effort to quantify the relationships and factors involved will it be possible to draw conclusions regarding these ecosystem services. In all likelihood general statements will be hard to make. However, the simple exercise of attempting to define the various ranges involved and carrying out the net return exercises may be useful in beginning to assist in the determination of which services tend to have positive value and which might have negative value. So just determining the likely direction of these services based on available information is useful. The next question is whether the order of magnitude of different services can be established. If so, then light may be shed on which services are the determining factor in answering the questions posed by the framework. If on-site forage benefits can only generate, for example, net benefits of from $1-$100/acre and the costs of meadow restoration are measured in the thousands of dollars then the question of private incentives may well be answerable. If the analysis goes on and all the off-site benefits are in the $1 to $10/acre range then it would need to be concluded that there is little economic argument for providing incentives to ranchers to invest in restoration. It is therefore hard to predict the outcome here. Only a literature review and common sense modeling of the likely changes in service provision and the likely values of these changes can assist in this process. Given the potential variation it may also end up being necessary to carry out a number of case studies to explore how these ranges of values can vary over sets of contrasting sites and, in this way, work back to what can or cannot be said in general about meadow restoration on private lands 3.2.2 Sierra Meadow Restoration Projects A number of approaches to meadow restoration exist. With a primary focus on restoring the hydrogeologic functioning of meadows, many restoration efforts in the Sierra have emphasized stream channel restoration as a primary driver of such functioning. The extreme downcutting found in many 26 Sierra meadows has led to the prevalence of the pond and plug approach over other, perhaps less invasive, stream re-engineering/restoration approaches. A survey of 29 meadow restoration projects in the Plumas Watershed (Feather River above Oroville Reservoir) found that 24 of these involved the pond and plug approach (see Table 9). This total of $5.3 million worth of investment is complemented by a further $3.2 million in channel stabilization projects. Table 9. Plumas County Meadow Restoration Projects Year 1985-96 1995 1996 1997 1997 1999 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 Project Name Red Clover Demonstration Big Flat Bagley Creek II Boulder Creek Rowland Creek Ward Creek Clarks Creek Stone Dairy Carmen Creek (Knuthson Meadow) Hosselkus Creek Uppler Last Chance (Matley Ranch) Elizabethtown/Hwy 70 Carmen Creek (Three-Cornered Meadow) Greenhorn Creek - New England Last Chance – PNF Poplar Creek Humbug-Charles Big Flat Modification Last Chance – Charles Dooley Creek/Downing Meadow Jordan Flat Supplemental Humbug-Charles II Hosselkus Creek II Red Clover/McReynolds Creek Rapp-Guidici Dixie Creek Last Chance-Ferris Fields Smith Creek Project Type Rock dams Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Sedimemt traps Channel structure Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug/Culverts Pond and Plug Riffle Augmentation Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug Pond and Plug/Boulder Vanes Riffle Augmentation 2008 Little Last Chance (Ramelli/Goss) Source: ICF Jones and Stokes (2008) 3.2.3 Land-owner Private Public Public Public Public Private Public Public Public Private Private Private Public Private Public Private Private Public Private Private / Public Public Private Private Private Private Private Public Private Private Costs of Meadow Restoration The costs of restoration for pond and plug projects consist largely of construction costs involved in excavating the ponds and replacing the material in plugs. The costs along with indicators of project size are provided in Table 10. The length of the incised channel restores is a fairly obvious candidate variable for predicting restoration costs. The depth of the incised channel would appear to be likely explanatory variables for cost. In the Plumas dataset only groundwater rise is provided and the source of this information is not explained; nor does it prove to be a terribly significant predictor of cost. The width of the incised channel is not provided in the dataset. Acreage restored however appears to be a useful explanatory variable. This may result from a relationship between the size of the meadow, the amount of stream flow and the cross-section of the channel. When length of channel restored and acres of meadow are employed to predict project cost in the pond and plug dataset they provide a high degree of explanatory power (333,146*length – 833*acres=cost). 27 Table 10. Cost of Plumas County Pond and plug Projects Year 1995 1996 1999 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 Project Name Big Flat Bagley Creek II Ward Creek Clarks Creek Stone Dairy Carmen Creek (Knuthson Meadow) Hosselkus Creek Uppler Last Chance (Matley Ranch) Elizabethtown/Hwy 70 Carmen Creek (Three-Cornered Meadow) Greenhorn Creek - New England Last Chance – PNF Poplar Creek Humbug-Charles Last Chance – Charles Dooley Creek/Downing Meadow Jordan Flat Supplemental Humbug-Charles II Hosselkus Creek II Red Clover/McReynolds Creek Rapp-Guidici Dixie Creek Last Chance-Ferris Fields Smith Creek Average Standard Deviation Median Channel Length (miles) 0.78 0.26 0.76 0.81 0.43 1.5 0.28 1.6 0.06 1 Acres Restored 47 10 165 56 20 200 25 300 5 45 Groundwater Rise (ft) 3 9 10 4 3 5 7 3 6 5 0.13 4.1 0.15 0.44 0.38 1 0.34 0.4 0.45 4.2 0.4 0.38 0.85 0.76 0.89 1.08 0.45 Cost $9,000 $220,000 $213,000 $170,000 $250,000 $30,000 $133,000 $5,500 $650,000 $130,000 10 800 15 60 80 80 50 5 35 375 13 12 85 30 105 175 46 4 2 4 7 4 10 5 7 5 7 7 3 9 4 5.58 2.2 5 $201,000 $55,000 $55,000 $64,000 $110,000 $1,300,000 $170,720 $61,000 $139,000 $173,000 $189,000 $9,000 $220,000 $90,000 $188,000 $270,000 $132,000 Source: ICF Jones and Stokes (2008) 3.2.4 Values for Forage and Beef On-site production from a restored meadow typically results in a change in the plant community and its productivity, due to the change in hydrogeologic conditions in the meadow. The change in production can be measured in economic terms by the change in hay production that is harvested, or the change in forage which results in weight gain for cattle (or in milk production in the case of dairies). Section 2 provided a review of studies that have examined the change in quality and quantity of biomass production. With regard to the topic of forage, the Ingram and Loomis (1989) report provides a useful summary of ways to value changes in forage: valuation of forage can be undertaken based on market data for similar source of data such as private rangeland leases and grazing rights on state lands the sales of private ranches associated with permits to graze public lands can be used to infer the willingness to pay for forage, but no studies were cited 28 the fees paid for access to grazing fees (in AUMs) could be used but these are generally agreed to be considerably lower than the actual market value of the forage the use of substitute goods and prices, such as that for hay, to value forage results is “unsatisfactory” due to the high prices of comparable amounts of hay other methods include a ranch “budget” method whereby the value of the forage is taken to be the residual once all other costs and revenues are included, as well as a variant on this in which the budget is optimized through the use of a linear programming model. To this list must be added the change in productivity approach, where the estimated change in forage productivity is valued in terms of the expected change in the marketable commodity (whether pounds of beef cattle or volume of milk production). In terms of actual figures, Ingram and Loomis (1989) report the following based on their literature review: for the Red Clover Creek restoration project the Soil Conservation Service (ex-NRCS) estimated an increase in forage such that animal units maintained on the land could double, going from two to four AUMS (animal-unit-month) per acre; so that the reported increase in forage of 10% would increase AUMS by two AUMS/acre. private land lease rates in the area that includes Plumas county was $6.75 per head-month, or pair-month (i.e. for cow-calf) and for yearling cattle the lease rate was $4.75 per head-month based on ranch appraisal data the value of forage on public land is reported (in 1984) as $6.40/AUM for cattle and horses over 18 months old, $4.50/AUM for yearling cattle under 18 months old and $1.05/AUM for sheep the Soil Conservation Service suggest a value of $10.00/AUM for cattle. In the case of hay, cattle and milk, these are marketed commodities with established prices so there is no need to employ non-market valuation techniques to assessing the value of production changes. Unfortunately, an abundance of market data does not mean that valuation is simple. The market prices of these commodities varies substantially over time and with the type and quality of product offered to the marketplace. In addition the location in the supply chain were the prices is selected is important. Typically, for the purposes of valuing land productivity the “farmgate” price is the desired price. This adds more complexity as, for example, auction prices for cattle might need to be adjusted for transportation to auction and hay prices may be for delivered hay (rather than at the farm). These issues are not the subject of this paper and, thus, are not pursued further. In Section 6 rough approximations for these market prices are selected, along with high and low estimates in order to assess the sensitivity of results to the coarse assumptions necessary here. 3.2.5 Values for Flow Regime Changes Based on the discussion in Section 2, it is hard to generalize regarding the changes to the hydrologic regime. Flow regime changes will be site specific, responding to local conditions and determinants of surface and sub-surface flow. Generally, it appears that there are three types of changes in the regime that may have economic consequences, even if their impacts will be situation dependent. Largely, these impacts will be felt downstream as changes to the hydrogeologic regime on the meadow lead to a change in the water balance and timing of water movement off the meadow and on downstream. These changes are summarized below from the perspective of the direction and magnitude resulting from undertaking meadow restoration projects, particularly of the pond and plug types: reduction in downstream instantaneous (flood) flows due to increased on-site storage; this effect will vary with size and depth of meadow and amount of meadow storage restored 29 change (typically an expected reduction) in spring-time flows due to increased on-site storage: this effect will vary with the increase in extent of meadow storage change (either an increase or a reduction) in late season flows due to the balance between the increase in evapotranspiration resulting from increased access by plants to stored groundwater and the release of stored groundwater as channel discharge and downstream flow. The latter two items can be summarized by saying that overall outflow from the meadow may increase or decrease over the year. However, in terms of value it may be important to examine how this change breaks out between early and late season. This is important as “extra” water during the spring may be excess to needs at the time and may or may not be able to be stored into the summer when water may be in shorter supply, and, therefore, more valuable. Implementing such an analysis does require splitting the water year in two, a task that ultimately is arbitrary in nature. However, putting changes in flood season flows in one basket and late summer flows can be accomplished by choosing an appropriate mid-summer break in the water year. Once this is done then the changes in water volumes and their implications for water uses can be tracked through to costs and benefits. This set of changes to the hydrologic regime resulting from meadow restoration can have impacts on a wide range of economic activities downstream. Based on Aylward’s (2004) review of the literature these are organized below to reference the direct driver of the damage proceeding from upstream to downstream impacts. They type of cost or benefit affected is also specified: changed flow regime in downstream waterways affecting o aquatic habitat and biodiversity (tourism and recreational benefits) o irrigation outtakes (crop and livestock benefits) o offstream run-of-river hydroelectric power production (hydropower benefits) o flood risk immediately downstream (flood damage costs) changed storage regime for reservoirs affecting o hydroelectric power generation (seasonal shift in hydropower benefits) o water withdrawals for irrigation production (crop and livestock benefits) o flood control storage (flood control costs and flood damages) o navigation opportunities associated with water supply reservoirs used to supply water to canals and locks (navigation costs and benefits) o aquatic habitat (tourism and recreational benefits) changed flow regime to delta, estuarine and coastal areas affecting o harbor and port operations and shipping (transport benefits) o subsistence or commercial fisheries production (fisheries benefits). o aquatic habitat (tourism and recreational benefits) The implication of this discussion is that there are a larger range of possible impacts, costs and benefits of meadow restoration related to the change in flood regime. In order to simplify the discussion somewhat these are discussed below in terms of the value of flood protection, and the value of units of water (water quantity) for downstream water supply and storage. In terms of meadow restoration, the latter may be more amenable to quantification, whereas the former will typically be much harder to identify, quantity and value. 3.2.6 Values for Flow Regime Changes: Flood Protection A number of economic valuation techniques have been (and could be) used to quantify the economic impact of land use change on flood protection downstream: market values – estimates of the loss of damage to property due to higher probability of flood events, particularly the higher probability of significant, large flood events 30 avertive expenditure – measuring savings in expenditure (i.e. on flood protection) as a measure of the benefits caused by a shift in the flow regime to delay storage (i.e. on flood storage) However, no efforts were found in the literature to value this in the case of Sierra Meadows. Moreover, give the small size of these meadows there remains the question of whether the flood attenuation function – however valuable for restoring onsite hydrogeologic function – is of a magnitude that is of significance to flood protection. This issue arises as typically only large floods are associated with economic damage, making small or marginal changes in flood attenuation – particularly those high in a watershed – of little consequence in downstream flood protection. 3.2.7 Values for Water Quantity for Downstream Water Supply and Storage A number of economic valuation techniques have been (and could be) used to quantify these economic impacts as follows (with examples): market values – the use of market data on temporary or permanent trades for water that can be used for a given use and at a given time and place provides important information on the value of water gained or lost due to restoration activities productivity methods – estimating the change in production (i.e. power generation) and change in associated revenues/benefits (power revenues) associated with a shift/change in water regime/availability during the year contingent valuation and travel cost approaches – estimating change in value (i.e. recreational) for hypothetical changes in stream or river flows In terms of a first approximation of the value of changes in water it is useful to examine data gathered on market transactions. A couple of recent publications provided a thorough rendering of the Central Valley water market and federal efforts at acquiring water for environmental purpose and are excerpted in Box 1 below (Aylward et al. 2010; Green and Aylward 2011). For water that would go to agriculture in the Central Valley a median value for leases over the last decade is $125/acre-foot (AF). However, when water is scarce its value can reach or exceed $200/AF for temporary (annual) trades. Regarding the seasonal use of water there is no reliable information of market value for early versus late season water. In part this is because the water that is traded is often storage water where the use of marketed water by season is not tracked. However, the range of values specified above may be used as an indication of this change in value. In other words, it may be assumed that an additional increment of water made available in the late season is worth $200/AF. An increment made early in the season could be worth $125/AF if put to use at that time or if it is spilled from dams below meadows and moved to the delta – where it may still be pumped into storage (for example in San Luis Reservoir). In other words it is unlikely that there is a time when water spilled over a dam on its way out of the Sierra has no economic value. Whether the water is used for drinking water, industrial purposes, irrigation or environmental purposes it has an economic value. But it is possible to suggest that water that is released late in the season or that can be stored into the late season may command a higher value. These are of course values averaged over different users. As the box indicates urban users typically pay a higher rate than farmers, who in turn pay more than environmental users. Where downstream uses of water produced through meadow restoration are specified this information could also be deployed. However, it is possible that these observed price disparities are themselves a function of the particular conditions of the end use and the buyer’s ability/willingness to pay. Therefore, in cases where the end use and the impact of a change in flow regime is known it may be more useful to explore these values directly rather than relying on a Central Valley-wide price level. 31 Box 1. Central Valley Water Markets In the Central Valley, water users leased approximately 7,380,000 AF through 392 agreements observed between 2000 and 2009. These leases transferred a mean volume of 18,825 AF for an average annual price of $152/AF/yr. Annual lease rates ranged from $18/AF/yr to $554/AF/yr (see Table 11). Rates vary by end use with agriculture paying an average lease rate of $166 over the period, urban users paying $188 and environmental users paying $124 (see Figure 4). Regional specific supply and demand characteristics of the market, along with heterogeneity among water entitlements contribute to this wide variation in prices. Table 11. Summary of Central Valley Water Right Leases, 2000 – 2009 Volume (AF) Annual Lease Rate ($/AF) Average 18,825 $152 Median 10,000 $125 Min 22 $18 Max 160,000 $554 Count 392 392 Source: Water right transactions database maintained by WestWater Research, LLC Average Annual Lease Rate ($/m3/ yr) Figure 4. Average Short-Term Lease Rates by End Use $0 $0 $0 $0 $0.16 $0.14 $0 $0.12 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Urban Agriculture Environmental Source: Water right transactions database maintained by WestWater Research, LLC Water right values have increased over time in the Central Valley (Aylward et al. 2010; Green and Aylward 2011). This price appreciation trend is attributable to the rising demand for water and a threeyear drought beginning in 2007. Recent environmental restrictions have also contributed to price increases as water supply from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta has been constrained. On average, water lease prices have increased by approximately 6 percent annually (Aylward et al. 2010). 32 3.2.8 Values for Sediment Reduction Meadow restoration techniques that re-engineer or fill downcut channels can lead to a decrease in downcutting (deepening of the streambed) and lateral migration (cutting away of streambanks) (Ingram and Loomis 1989). The material that is eroded will take the form of suspended sediment and bedload, the former carried downstream along with stream flow and the latter migrating down the bottom of the channel. A large number of impacts and economic costs and benefits associated with the downstream flow and accumulation of sediment are possible. Based on Aylward’s (2004) review of the literature these are organized below to reference the direct driver of the damage proceeding from upstream to downstream impacts. They type of cost or benefit affected is also specified: Suspended sediment levels in waterways affecting o municipal and industrial use (treatment costs) o aquatic habitat and biodiversity (tourism and recreational benefits) o irrigation outtakes (maintenance costs) o offstream run-of-river hydroelectric power production (maintenance costs and capital replacement) Sedimentation of reservoirs and loss of storage capacity affecting o hydroelectric power generation (hydropower costs and benefits) o withdrawal of water for irrigation production (crop and livestock costs and benefits) o flood control (flood control costs and flood damages) o navigation opportunities associated with water supply reservoirs used to supply water to canals and locks (navigation costs and benefits) o aquatic habitat (tourism and recreational benefits) Sedimentation of estuarine and coastal areas affecting o harbor and port operations and shipping (maintenance costs) o subsistence or commercial fisheries production (fisheries benefits). o aquatic habitat (tourism and recreational benefits) A number of economic valuation techniques have been (and could be) used to quantify these economic impacts as follows: avertive expenditure – measuring additional maintenance (i.e. dredging costs) and treatment costs as a measure of the damages caused by suspended sediment and sedimentation productivity methods – estimating the change in production (i.e. hydropower generation) and change in associated revenues/benefits associated with increase in sediment productivity methods – estimating the change in length of life of a facility (i.e. useful storage life of a hydropower reservoir) and the resulting loss in associated production in the future contingent valuation – estimating change in value (i.e. recreational) for hypothetical changes in water quality replacement cost – estimating maintenance (i.e. dredging costs) and treatment costs that would be necessary to remove sediment, though this has yet to occur The difficulty with measuring the economic damages associated with suspended sediment and sedimentation is that they are exceedingly site specific (Aylward 2004). It is therefore not possible to generalize that a cubic meter of sediment is associated with a specific dollar cost. It will be necessary to at least qualify any such statement with an understanding of the mechanics of downstream flow, storage and water usage. 33 For example, the threat posed by sedimentation to reservoirs and their storage capacity will vary with a number of contextual variables. In a small watershed with low erosivity and a large reservoir with a large dead storage capacity (volume below the outtake) erosion and sediment levels may be low and have little to no economic consequences. Further if the dam is designed with a sediment flushing capability (i.e. allowing water to escape from the bottom of the reservoir and not just the top) then the costs of managing sediment will be very low. Alternatively, a small reservoir in a large watershed susceptible to erosion may be at high risk. Similarly the lack of a large dead pool may mean that sedimentation will impact storage and production very quickly. Finally, with respect to storage reservoirs, there are virtually no studies examining the complicated nexus of optimizing a response to sediment in terms of how to balance changes in production, changes in length of life, and the variety of mitigation expenditures (like dredging) that might be undertaken. For example, changes in production might be significant and expensive, but if mitigation (like flushing) is inexpensive then using the change in production as the indicator of downstream economic damage would not be defensible. With respect to changes in suspended sediment and effects on direct withdrawals of water, the impacts on water supply for municipal and industrial use are often taken to be particularly important. Unfortunately, there is only a limited empirical literature on this topic (Aylward and Hartwell 2010). This line of argument stems from the popular perception that maintaining a tree covered watershed above a city provides additional, clean water supplies. The magnitude of this benefit will obviously vary with the type of land uses and land management practices. Aylward and Hartwell (2010) conclude that while in the extreme case, the impacts would likely be catastrophic, in many cases, the existence of installed water treatment facilities mean that marginal changes in land use and suspended sediment would lead to marginal economic consequences. In other words, instead of imposing large retrofits and capital costs on service providers, such changes simply cause higher operating costs (labor, materials, etc). In the few rigorous studies carried out so far these costs tend to be relatively low, as shown in Table 12. Figures of between $0.02/m3 and $0.05/m3 are found in the literature where such studies can be traced back to sediment volumes (Dearmont et al. 1998; Forster et al. 1987; Holmes 1988). Converting to weight, this equals between one to two and a half cents per ton of sediment. So an annual increase in erosion per acre of ten tons would imply a cost of $0.10. This is not a large cost when agriculture can earn revenues per acre measured in the thousands of dollars. For the other studies listed in the table, the figures can be used in conjunction with estimates of urban populations in both the US and the UK leads to the conclusion that the per person costs of water treatment associated with agricultural water pollution varies from $4 (US) to $8 (UK) (Clark 1985; Pretty et al. 2000). Table 12. Municipal Water Treatment Costs due to Turbidity and Sediment Study Location Total Costs (million) Clark et al. (1985) USA $1,075 Holmes (1988) USA $685 Variable Water Treatment Costs Elasticity Other results $0.023/m3 0.07 (T) cost of $0.033/ton (S) 3 Forster et al. (1987) Ohio $0.045/m 0.12 (T) elasticity 0.40 (SE) Dearmont et al. (1998) Texas $0.031/m3 0.27 (T) cost of $0.040/m3 for groundwater contamin. Pretty et al. (2000) UK $427 Notes: Elasticity figures are the % increase in expenditure associated with a 1% increase in water quality. Water quality as an explanatory variable is measured either as Turbidity (T), Sediment (S) or Soil Erosion (SE) in these studies. All figures in 2006 dollars, adjustments are made based on the year of the data employed, exchange rate at that time and inflation using the US Consumer Price Index. Source: Aylward et al. (2010) 34 In terms of the Sierra Meadows literature little quantification of the economic impacts of sedimentation or sediment reductions due to meadow restoration were found. In one case, Ingram and Loomis (1989) cite a prior study conducted by Loomis for the City of Quincy. The study examined impacts of increased turbidity from logging. The study found that by purchasing lands (presumably to avoid logging and its impacts) the city would save $25,000 a year or $35 per year per customer. These costs were derived from the costs of moving from surface water to groundwater and reflected the avoided costs of pumping groundwater. This example demonstrates the difficulty of conducting valuation of these impacts. The use of engineered replacement alternatives may produce significant cost figures. In this case the increase in turbidity may have been significant to mean that the existing treatment system could not cope. However, this is not clear from the Ingram and Loomis paper and, thus, it is hard to evaluate the degree to which the $25,000 reflects the real economic damages of the potential increase in turbidity. In a review of program effectiveness of meadow restoration in Plumas County, the benefits of reduction in erosion in sedimentation is cited as being regarded as “substantial by “most investigators” (ICF Jones & Stokes 2008). No citations, however, are provided to studies enumerating these benefits in economic terms for the Oroville Reservoir. 4. Evaluation of the Costs and Benefits of Meadow Restoration In this section the information compiled in the prior sections is used to apply the economic framework to illustrate the potential costs and benefits of meadow restoration, from both private and social perspectives. The intent is to arrive at best estimates of the ranges in expected direction and order of magnitudes of the costs and benefits from these two perspectives. Putting these figures together should be useful in providing a rough reckoning with respect to: the private incentives to engage in meadow restoration the justification for proving financial incentives to landowners to engage in restoration (for the production of off-site, benefits) the likely downstream beneficiaries and, thus, potential contributors to an incentives program In addition, the analysis may shed light on key parameters that will drive the economics of meadow restoration. Given the preliminary nature of this effort to compile the requisite information from existing studies, this effort also provides guidance on what information gaps are most limiting to understanding the economics of meadow restoration. These are enumerated in the concluding section of the paper. The evaluation is based on a hypothetical “typical” meadow, but attempts to incorporate a range of potential conditions through the use of a wide range of values from Section 2 and 3 in the sensitivity analysis. As highlighted above the variability in direction and magnitude of the hydrologic response is a key limiting factor to this analysis and one requiring thorough sensitivity analysis. The general economic parameters are first reviewed followed by a formulation of a “typical” meadow for evaluation purposes. Then the evaluation of the incentives framework from the perspective of the landowner (financial analysis) and society (economic analysis) is carried out. 4.1 4.1.1 General Parameters for the Evaluation Discount Rates For the private analysis the discount rates should reflect the cost of capital for landowners, should they engage in funding the meadow restoration project on their own (without public assistance). If the landowner were to use their own capital then they would be foregoing the returns from investments they 35 might otherwise make with the funds. If they could borrow the funds then the cost would be the interest rate on the loan or other financing vehicle. The private discount rate would therefore vary from one rancher or farmer to the next. In addition, these rates will vary over time with market conditions and the economy. As a simplifying assumption the long run return from the stock market may serve as an indicator of the private opportunity cost of capital. This rate also varies with the market level at the time it is selected. An analysis undertaken in 2003 found that the compounded average nominal market return for 1926-2000 was 10.7%. (Ibbotson and Chen 2003) Approximately 3% of this was due to inflation. In the evaluation of meadows no inflation is built into future private or economic flows so it is first necessary to subtract out inflation. This yields a “real” return of just over 7%. This is similar to the 6.55 to 7% figure derived from an investigation over the 200-year period beginning in 1802 (Siegel 2007). Efforts by Ibbotson and Chen (2003) to forecast returns suggest an inflation free market return figure of from 2.5% to 6% going forward. Siegel (2007) suggests a range of from 4.5 to 5.5%. For the purposes of reflecting opportunity costs the 6% number is used as a best estimate with 4.5 % as a lower and upper bound in the sensitivity analysis. For a high estimate a rather arbitrary 10% figure is used to allow simulation of how investments in meadow restoration would appear to ranchers with better investment opportunities and therefore higher opportunity costs of capital. For social discount there are no generally agreed upon rates, in part because the social discount rate cannot itself be observed but must be inferred or calculated based on a number of factors. Generally it is agreed that the social rate will be less than the private rate. It is also increasingly suggested that the time path of the rate is “hyperbolic” in that at some point in the future the rate should gradually be decreased each year. The latter approach is needlessly complicated for the purposes of this analysis. Instead a longer time horizon is used to ensure that values far out into the future are not omitted from the analysis alongside a lower rate. Here, a figure of 4% is used as the central figure for the real social discount rate bound on either side by a 2% and a 6% rate. 4.1.2 Time Horizon The time horizon selected for the analysis is largely guided by two factors: changes in services that might play out over time, particularly any significant changes, and the selected discount rates. With respect to a Business as Usual Scenario continued degradation of incised channels could cause continued loss in groundwater storage capacity and possibly increase erosion rates. Forage function could also worsen over time with the worsening of the meadow hydrologic regime. The difficulty is establishing how these rates would change over a long time horizon as opposed to current levels. If such changes are deemed significant they can be incorporated into a more nuanced analysis over time. At present however the assumption is that the current situation is maintained out into the future. As a result it is likely that the benefits of restoration are under-estimated in the model. The driving force for selection of a time horizon is the discount rate. A $1 impact 100-years out in the future at a 2% discount rate is worth $0.13 in present value terms. Using a 40 or a 60-year time frame thus may leave considerable value from future cost and benefit streams unaccounted for in the analysis. From society’s perspective the consideration of whether or not to restore a meadow is very much a sustainability decision. That the decision typically involved the use of public funds makes the case for taking a broad and long view of the costs and benefits of such projects even more persuasive. For this reason all present value figures of future annualized cost and benefit figures for the social analysis are carried out for a 100-year time horizon. 36 For the private analysis, the discount rates are higher and individuals will typically have a shorter time horizon. To reflect this a 20-year time horizon is used for the private analysis. This does truncate present values as 20 years out at a 6% discount rate $1 is valued at $0.30 in present value terms. 4.2 Meadow Restoration: a “Typical” Pond and Plug Project and Restoration Costs A number of passive and active restoration techniques exist for addressing the limiting factors associated with channel incision. These techniques seek to restore hydrological function and as a consequence restore downstream hydrological and on-site ecological function. Some of these techniques include methods for restoring stream function through modification of existing channel structure and their hydrodynamics, as well as a pond and plug approach whereby the incised channel is physically plugged at periodic intervals creating a plug-pond-plug-pond sequence down the length of the incised channel. The pond and plug approach does not attempt to fix and restore existing incised channels (located in the meadow low points) but rather to use the plugs to raise the groundwater table, thereby rewatering the preincision sinuous channel network that was abandoned with the formation of the straighter incised channel. As many of the meadow restoration projects depend on restoration of hydrogeological functioning and the pond and plug approach predominates in practice, this approach is selected for analysis. Based on the FCRM dataset in ICF Jones & Stokes (2008) a typical pond and plug project is taken to be a 50-acre restoration project with a channel length of 0.5 miles. These values are based on the median values from the Feather River dataset for pond and plug projects where the median acreage and channel length was 45 acres and 0.45 miles, respectively. With an assumed sinuosity for the main channel of 1.2 this yields a meadow length of 2,200 feet with an average width (or thickness) of 955 feet. Again, based on the Feather River dataset a groundwater rise of 5 feet (the median value) is assumed. For the purposes of exploring the range of values from the Feather River dataset additional statistics are presented in the table below. Table 13. Feather River Pond and Plug Restoration Projects: Statistics Metric Median Minimum 25th Percentile Size (acres) 46 5 15 Channel Length (miles) 0.45 0.06 0.37 Groundwater Rise (ft) 5 2 4 Notes: Based on data from ICF Jones and Stokes (2008) 75th Percentile 81 0.89 7 Maximum 800 4.2 10 The costs of meadow restoration are estimated to be $125,000 based on the Plumas County data set provided above in Table 13. A 20% variance is used to generate lower and upper values for sensitivity analysis of $100,000 and $150,000, respectively. 4.3 Private Benefits: Hay, Forage and Beef Cattle For the landowner the primary financial returns from meadow restoration will accrue in terms of the quantity, quality and timing of biomass production on the restored meadow. Across the Sierra, meadows are found in a variety of biophysical situations and are devoted to a range of production approaches. It is difficult to therefore generalize to a “typical” meadow. However, given the paucity of empirical work examining how restoration affects on-site productivity and returns to landowners it is worth exploring a few different approaches in order to gain some insight into the ranger of magnitude of such returns. The three systems that are valued here are: 37 1. Hay and Forage-Productivity Method – for the bulk of the season the meadow is not grazed and a cutting of hay is harvested, before putting stock out on the meadow to use the forage for the remainder of the season; this approach come from Northern California and is reported by Sloat (pers. com. 2011) 2. Forage-AUM Productivity method – in this simple approach the expected gain in AUMs after restoration is valued using the price of an AUM to arrive at the expected gains from a restored meadow; this approach is based on information in Ingram and Loomis (1989) 3. Forage-Cattle Productivity method – in this approach changes in quantity and quality of forage between pre- and post- restoration meadows (made up of dry, mesic and wet meadow communities) are used along with stocking estimates to generate weight gain estimates and their market value; this approach is based on information in Tate et al. (2011) and the analysis provided in Section 4.3.2. 4.3.1 Hay and Forage Productivity Method This approach contrasts hay and forage quantities from a degraded and a restored meadow based on experience in the Pit River (Sloat pers. com. 2011). These figures are not representative of all meadows but demonstrate the valuation approach. The “best” or middle of the range values are elaborated here to explain the method. Table 14 includes these figures as well as those for the high and low range of key variables as part of the sensitivity analysis. Hay sales are reported by Sloat (pers. com. 2011) to be in the range of 2 tons/acre from a single late season cutting on restored meadows. Due to the low quality of the hay (as opposed to a grain or alfalfa hay) the price fetched by the hay is expected to be around $80/ton. In comparison, irrigated alfalfa fields may produce 8-12 tons/acre of hay valued at $160-$240/ton in 3 to 4 cuttings. For the degraded meadow it is assumed that haying is unattractive given the limited biomass and its poor quality (i.e. including sagebrush). Once the hay is cut Sloat (pers. com. 2011) reports that cattle are brought on late in the season from lower pastures to graze, as late as October/November. The date can be expected to vary with the elevation and the rotation established by the rancher. Stocking rates are typically 1 animal per acre and they may remain on the ground for a month on average. In order to calculate the weight gain under degraded and restored conditions the dry and mesic weight gain for late season is used from Tate et al. (2011) as shown in Table 6. Cattle prices (in $/lb) were taken from the USDA statistics collected by the National Agricultural Statistics Service as reported in the California Livestock Review and found in their online database. Over the last ten or so years the low price reported was around $0.80/lb and the high price about $1.30/lb. Prices reported in late 2011 or the U.S. as a whole were in the $1.15/lb range. The income earned from haying and grazing is calculated for the degraded and restored meadow on an annual basis for the 50-acre meadow (and per acre) in Table 14. The present value of this income over time is also calculated using the 6% discount rate and the 20-year time horizon. The present value increase in total income from the meadow in the base case comes to about $117,000. Information on the change in operational costs was not available to allocate these returns to costs and profit. A simplifying assumption that the operation has a 50:50 cost to profit structure is used to estimate the profit that accrues to the landowner as a result of restoring the meadow. This figure is around $59,000 or about 47% of the up-front cost of restoring the 50-acre meadow in present value terms. With much more optimistic assumptions about the productivity gains this figure rises to 77% of costs under the high value scenario. For the low value scenario this drops to 13%. 38 Table 14. Valuation of Hay and Forage Restored Meadow Scenarios Base High Haying Hay Sales (tons/acre) Hay Price ($/ton) Grazing (Late Season) Days on Pasture Stocking (Animals/Acre) Gain per day (per animal) Weight Gain (lbs/acre) Cattle Price ($/lb) Returns ($/Meadow) Annual Hay Grazing Total (per acre) Degraded Meadow $ $ $ $ 3 120 2 80 1 40 60 1 1.86 111.60 1.30 45 1 1.71 76.95 1.15 30 1 1.58 47.40 0.80 18,000 7,254 25,254 505 $ $ $ $ High Haying Hay Sales (tons/acre) Hay Price ($/ton) Grazing (Mid Season) Days on Pasture Stocking (Animals/Acre) Gain per day Weight Gain (lbs/acre) Revenues ($/Meadow) Annual Hay Grazing Total (per acre) Net Returns 45 1 1.74 78.30 2,000 5,090 7,090 142 $ $ $ $ High Annual Change in Revenues (per acre) Present Values Private Revenues Private Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) Economic Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) 8,000 4,425 12,425 248 Scenarios Base 1 40 $ $ $ $ Low $ $ $ $ 2,000 1,896 3,896 78 Low - - 30 1 1.27 38.10 15 1 0.92 13.80 2,191 2,191 44 Scenarios Base $ $ $ $ 552 552 11 Low $ $ 18,165 363 $ $ 10,234 205 $ $ 3,344 67 $ $ 154,645 115,983 77% 3,093 226,387 151% 4,528 $ $ 117,382 58,691 47% 2,348 125,391 100% 2,508 $ $ 52,130 13,033 13% 1,043 36,030 36% 721 $ $ $ $ $ $ 39 $ $ $ 4.3.2 Forage-AUM Productivity Method One way to measure the increase in forage availability and quality is to simply assess the gain in AUMs or animal unit months that result from restoring a meadow. Then this gain can be converted into a value by applying estimates of the market value of these AUMS (as described in Section 3). Ingram and Loomis (1989) report that there is an increase of 2 AUMs from meadow restoration (from 2 to 4 AUMs) based on a single source. For the low and high scenarios analysis the change in AUMs is varied from 1 to 3 AUMs. The productivity change that results from this is fairly low at between 55 and 165 AUMs for the low and high scenario and 110 for the base case scenario. Ingram and Loomis (1989) report on various methods of pricing AUMS, with figures ranging from $5 to $10 per AUM. In 2011 USDA (2011) reported an average AUM price in California for 2010 of $16.40. A figure of 20% above and below the average price is used to reflect potential price dispersion of AUM leases. The forage returns are net returns as they reflect what the landowner could lease the acreage for, without incurring any input costs. The results in the base case suggest that over 20 years the additional forage returns are just over $20,000 and cover only about one-fifth of the up-front investment costs. The high and low scenarios return between 8% and 25% of the investment cost. As noted earlier, a number of studies have suggested that quantity gains in terms of biomass are fivefold in mesic meadow communities compared to dry meadows communities. The doubling of AUMS/acre or even an increase of 3 AUMS/acre may understate the upside potential of meadow restoration. In a further sensitivity analysis, therefore, the gain in AUMs is projected to be 10 AUMS/acre. This result increases returns to 82,000 or 66% of the investment cost, just above the hay and forage results obtained above. Table 15. Valuation of Forage-AUM Method Forage Productivity Changes AUMS/acre (Prior) AUMS/acre (After) Change in AUMs/acre Change in Quality Total Change in AUMs/acre Total Changes in Aums Net Returns Price of an AUM Annual Figures Change in Revenue ($/year) (per acre) Present Values Private Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) Economic Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) Sensitivity Scenario Analysis High Base 2.0 2.0 2.0 10.0 5.0 4.0 8.0 3.0 2.0 10% 10% 10% 8.8 3.3 2.2 440 165 110 Sensitivity Scenario Analysis High Base $ 16.40 $ 19.68 $ 16.40 $ $ $ 7,216 144 $ $ 3,247 65 $ $ 1,804 36 $ $ $ 82,767 66% 1,655 176,828 141% 3,537 $ 37,245 25% 745 53,960 36% 1,079 $ 20,692 17% 414 44,207 35% 884 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 40 $ $ $ $ $ $ Low 2.0 3.0 1.0 10% 1.1 55 Low 13.12 722 14 8,277 8% 166 31,100 31% 622 4.3.3 Forage-Cattle Productivity Method A third approach to valuation relies on estimates of changes in forage quality and quantity, as well as a number of other assumptions about the meadow in order to derive the change in productivity in terms of the increase in cattle weight due to restoration. The market price of cattle is then used to quantify the change in revenues to the rancher. The variation in meadow forage quantity and quality presented earlier in Section 2 is deployed here as shown in Table 16. The figures from Tate et al. (2011) for changes in forage quality are used alongside estimates of the increase in productivity based on the literature. Based on the latter studies a multiplier of 5 is used to reflect the increase in quantity of biomass produced in mesic vs. dry communities. A multiplier of 1.2 is derived for mesic vs wet communities. From a degraded to a restored state the proportion of the meadow with dry, mesic and wet communities is assumed to change, largely towards a preponderance of mesic and wet communities. The figures used are shown in the table. Stocking on the meadow is also an important parameter. Stocking rates and durations for each community are indicated for early, mid and late season grazing at the end of the table. Table 16. Parameters for Forage-Beef Method Cattle Weight Gain Potential by Season and Condition Dry Mesic Wet Meadow Forage Productivity Dry Weight Forage Production (lbs) Dry Mesic Wet Derived Productivity Multipliers Mesic over Dry Mesic over Wet Productivity Ratios Mesic vs. Dry Mesic vs Wet Allocation of Acreage by Meadow Condition Dry Mesic Wet Stocking Season (lbs per cow per day) Notes Early Mid Late 1.74 1.27 0.92 From Tate et. Al (2011) 1.86 1.71 1.58 1.84 1.68 1.27 Median 25th 75th Notes 517 2477 1922 322 1654 1625 666 2958 2712 4.8 1.3 5.1 1.0 4.4 1.1 5.00 1.20 Before Restoration 85% 10% 5% Early Stocking Rate (animals/acre) Dry Mesic Wet Grazing Duration Dry After Restoration 0% 85% 15% Season Mid 0.20 1.00 0.83 0.16 0.80 0.67 45.00 45.00 Mesic 45.00 45.00 Wet 45.00 45.00 41 Notes Assumed figures Notes Late 0.12 Assumed figures 0.60 with mesic/wet having 0.50 higher stocking rates 45.00 Assumed figures Assumed that rate is 45.00 sustainable 45.00 over 3 periods The information presented thus far can be combined in order to generate the weight gain on the meadow. Weight gain before and after restoration is calculated for each community and each season. The weight gain can then be summed and the increase seen on the restored meadow calculated. A sample calculation using the values from Table 16 is provided in Table 17. The stocking rate is a key variable and the different stocking rates shown in Table 16 are all indexed off of the stocking rate for the mesic community in the early season. This parameter is set at 1.0 for the base case scenario, but varied between 1.5 and 0.5 for the high and low scenarios in the ensuing analysis of returns to ranching. So, for each scenario the calculations in Table 17 must be repeated to generate the change in productivity due to restoration (as appears at the outset of Table 18). Table 17. Sample Change in Productivity Calculations (for early season mesic stocking rate of 1 animal/acre) Totals Cattle Weight Gain - lbs per acre Before Restoration Dry Mesic Wet Total After Restoration Dry Mesic Wet Total Improvement under Restoration Early Season Mid Late 25.3 18.8 7.4 51.5 13.3 8.4 3.5 7.8 6.2 2.5 4.2 4.3 1.4 159.7 22.2 181.9 130.4 71.1 10.4 52.3 7.6 36.3 4.3 When the variation in stocking rates is combined with the fairly wide potential variation in cattle prices (as introduced earlier) the change in revenue ends up spreading across a large range of values. In present value terms the change in revenue is $86,000 for a 50-acre meadow for the base case, with expected profit of $43,000, which is equal to 34% of the upfront costs of meadow restoration. With the high scenario parameters up to 54% of the cost is covered, while at the low end of the range just 10% is covered. 42 Table 18. Valuation of Forage – Cattle Productivity Method Net Returns Stocking Rate for Early Mesic Change in Productivity Weight Gain Before (lbs/acre) Weight Gain After Restoration (lbs) Change Due to Restoration (lbs) Cattle Price ($/lb) Annual Figures Change in Revenue (per acre) Present Values Private Change In Revenue ($) Private Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) Economic Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) 4.3.4 Sensitivity Analysis 51 182 130 1.15 High 1.50 Scenarios Base 1.00 Low 0.50 77 273 196 1.30 51 182 130 1.15 26 91 65 0.80 $ $ 7,500 150 $ $ 12,717 254 $ $ 7,500 150 $ $ 2,609 52 $ $ 86,022 43,011 34% 860 91,891 74% 1,838 $ $ 108,267 81,201 54% 1,624 158,495 106% 3,170 $ $ 86,022 43,011 34% 860 91,891 74% 1,838 $ $ 40,666 10,167 10% 203 28,107 28% 562 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Conclusions on Private Returns For ease of reference Table 19 provides a brief summary of the results from the three approaches to valuing the private returns to ranching. Comparing the annual change in revenue provides a simple and straightforward way of examining the figures. However, since the AUM method provides revenue figures that are also profit figures it is more useful to contrast the present value of the changes in private profit. The base case scenarios vary from $20,000 to almost $60,000. However, if the sensitivity figure for the AUM method is employed with the higher change in productivity that matches that employed in the Forage-Cattle Method then the results are still relatively dispersed but in a higher range, from $43,000 to $83,000. Taking all the approaches and scenarios the contribution that private profit would make over the 20-year period and at the private rates of discount would be from 8% to 77%. Again, taking the higher AUM Method estimate generates a range of from 34% to 66% for the contribution made by ranching returns to the costs of restoration. Thus, the general finding from applying the evaluation framework to private returns is that relying on the private forage benefits alone is not going to be sufficient to promote restoration of private meadows. It does appear that landowners should however have a substantial motivation to participate in a material way, such as in cost sharing or making in-kind contributions, on such projects due to the magnitude of the forage benefits. Analysis of the social returns to ranching will be taken up in the next section. 43 Table 19. Comparison of Valuation Approaches to the Private Returns to Ranching Scenarios Base Results High Annual Change in Revenue ($/year) AUM Method Hay and Forage Method Forage-Cattle Method Present Value Change in Profit AUM Method Hay and Forage Method Forage-Cattle Method Percent Contribution to Capital Costs AUM Method Hay and Forage Method Forage-Cattle Method 4.4 Low $ $ $ 3,247 18,165 12,717 $ $ $ 1,804 10,234 7,500 $ $ $ 722 3,344 2,609 $ $ $ 37,245 115,983 81,201 $ $ $ 20,692 58,691 43,011 $ $ $ 8,277 13,033 10,167 25% 77% 54% 17% 47% 34% 8% 13% 10% Social Incentives: Economic Costs and Benefits The so-called “private” costs and benefits of meadow restoration that accrue to the landowner are unlikely to reflect the full sum of impacts on the economy (as explained further in Appendix 4). Evaluation of the full set of costs and benefits accruing to society is necessary to understand the economics of meadow restoration. Given that the prior sub-section concludes that the private returns to meadow restoration fall short of the costs, a wider economic evaluation is useful to identify whether there is a rationale for society to contribute funds to restoration projects. Identifying the recipients of off-site impacts of such projects may also help with design of efforts to help pay for such projects. The next two sub-sections therefore examines the case of the “typical” meadow from two perspectives. This sub-section briefly considers the distortions that may drive a wedge between how a private landowner evaluates the on-site costs and benefits of meadow restoration. In the next sub-section the offsite impacts of meadow restoration are considered and, where feasible, valued in economic terms. Evaluation is driven by the perspective of the decision-maker. This perspective is defined by the time horizon over which costs and benefits are considered. The time value of money to the decision-maker is also important. The distinction between the perspective of the private landowner and society with respect to the on-site costs and benefits of meadow restoration is examine here by deploying different time horizons and discount rates. As described earlier, the private landowner is assumed to have a shorter time horizon, at 20 years, than society, which is assigned a 100-year time horizon. With regard to the time value of money, the private landowner is assumed to place more importance on current as opposed to future consumption and is assigned a 6% discount rate, whereas society is assigned a lower, 4% rate. The results of the analysis of ranching benefits using the three methods covered in the prior section are presented in the table below. The only changes to the figures used in the prior table is the change to the lower discount rate and longer time horizon. Meadow restoration costs are assumed to take place in the first year and thus these changes do not affect the $125,000 cost of restoring the “typical” meadow under the base case. However, lowering the discount rate and extending the time horizon mean that the benefits counted in the present value calculation increase. The results suggest that this increase is quite significant. For example, for the base case of the forage-cattle productivity method the net profit to the landowner was $43,000. The social benefits are much higher at $91,000 44 Table 20. Social Returns of Ranching with Meadow Restoration Results Scenarios Base High Present Value Change in Benefits AUM Method Hay and Forage Method Forage-Cattle Method Percent Contribution to Capital Costs AUM Method Hay and Forage Method Forage-Cattle Method $ $ $ 53,960 226,387 158,495 $ $ $ 36% 151% 106% 44,207 125,391 91,891 35% 100% 74% Low $ $ $ 31,100 36,030 28,107 31% 36% 28% Across the board the extent to which these benefits cover the restoration costs rises. For the base case the three valuation methods suggest 35%, 74% and 100% coverage of the restoration costs. The lower value scenarios increase but still generate benefits much less than the costs, varying from around one-quarter to one-third of the costs. For the high value scenarios the gains in ranching value would be sufficient to warrant investment in the meadow restoration project under two of the three valuation approaches. This brief consideration of the social returns of ranching with meadow restoration suggest that if society’s perspective is employed then the ranching returns would play a much more encouraging role in the promotion of meadow restoration. This finding then helps to bolster the claim that meadow restoration is in the public interest, even if private landowners are unlikely to finance the costs of restoration themselves. However, in order to have a full discussion on whether or not public incentives for meadow restoration are warranted the on-site costs and benefits need also to be included in the evaluation. 4.5 Social Incentives: Off-site Costs and Benefits. In this section two off-site benefits of meadow restoration are valued explicitly: downstream sediment reduction and downstream flow regime changes. Two other categories of values, that of fish and wildlife habitat and carbon storage, are not valued as the science to estimate changes in productivity is not wellestablished (see Section 2). These values are included in the discussion as they bear on the likely direction and magnitude of off-site costs and benefits. 4.5.1 Sediment Reduction As described in Section 2, employing the pond and plug approach on the “typical” meadow may lead to a reduction in sediment released from the meadow. The examples cited in that section are used to derive annual change in sediment per lineal foot of channel that is treated with the pond and plug approach. This yields the following results: Trout Creek, 0.02 to 0.06 tons/ft Big Flat Meadow, 0.39 tons/ft Clarks Meadow, 0.77 tons/ft Bear Creek Meadow, 0.35 tons/ft While these figures vary considerably they provide a workable range for valuation purposes. For the “typical” meadow the length of the meadow as suggested above is taken to be 0.5 miles or 2,640 feet. Adjusting for an assumed sinuosity of 1.1 gives a channel length of 2,904. As shown in the table below the reduction in sediment release can be calculated for the range of rates of annual sediment reduction to range from 145 tons to over 2,300 tons. 45 Table 21. Economic Benefits of Sediment Reduction Sediment Productivity Changes Erosion-Prior (tons/ft) Erosion-After (tons/ft) Change in Erosion (tons/ft) Channel Length (ft) Sediment Reduction (tons) Net Returns Price of a ton of Sediment Annual Figures Change in Benefits ($/year) (per acre) Present Values Economic Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) Sensitivity Scenario Analysis High Base 0.4 0.8 0.4 (0.4) (0.8) (0.4) 2,904 2,904 2,904 1,161.6 2,323.2 1,161.6 Scenario Sensitivity Analysis High Base $ 0.50 $ 0.025 $ 0.018 $ $ $ $ $ 581 11.62 $ $ 58 1.16 14,233 $ 11% 285 $ $ $ 965 $ 1% 19 $ 20 0.41 Low 0.05 (0.1) 2,904 145.2 Low 0.010 $ $ 1 0.03 498 $ 0% 10 $ 63 0% 1 As discussed in Section 3 the economic value of changes in sedimentation will be variable depending on the services and infrastructure downstream and how the sediment plays into the economic productivity of water uses downstream. However, for the purposes of illustration the figures cited from the literature of $0.01/ton to $0.025 are used here to reflect the cost of higher sediment loads. The results (in the table above) show annual changes in benefits due to meadow restoration of the “typical” meadow of from $1 to $58. When converted to present values the range is $63 to $965. This amounts to 1% or less of the costs of meadow restoration. In other words, subject to the assumptions made here it appears unlikely that in the “typical” meadow that sediment reduction benefits will make a significant impact in terms of covering restoration costs. Given the methods employed the estimates of sediment reduction are approximate but appear reasonable. Dry meadows themselves are unlikely to be significant sources of erosion given their limited use for grazing. The incised channel will be the primary source of erosion and this is well accounted for in the figures in Section 2. It may be that the damage costs are underestimated and, in a given case they may well be. To examine this issue further the sensitivity analysis is run with a price per ton of sediment that is 50 times the low value and 20 times the high value. With a price of $0.50/ton of sediment the present value increases to almost $15,000 or just over 10% of the base case cost of meadow restoration. Further investigation of specific Sierra Meadows cases would greatly assist in confirming these results, but it does appear that sediment reduction will be of limited benefit. It is worth emphasizing that this reflects only the impact of the sediment as a solid and its impacts on downstream uses. To the extent that meadow restoration reduces nutrient concentrations downstream this may be another element of the total economic value of meadow restoration. 4.5.2 The Costs and Benefits of Changes in Downstream Flow A number of experts and sources were consulted in an effort to find applicable parameters and develop a workable model of the hydrogeology of meadows pre- and post-restoration. After consulting the sources reviewed in Section 2 a simple groundwater model (using MODFLOW software) was prepared by Greg Pohl of the University of Nevada in an attempt to simulate some of the key meadow inputs and outputs. The model illustrated the relationship between stream flow input, the conductivity of meadow soils and 46 evapotranspiration. However, such a simple model did not adequately reflect the boundary conditions and the potential for groundwater flow from the sides of the meadow. Given the resources available for this work, no more detailed model could be developed. Instead, the various sources and the MODFLOW simulations were used to develop two very simple water balance models for the meadow that can be used to illustrate potential value changes in downstream flows due to meadow restoration. In the first model the evapotranspiration (ET) increase is derived from the Hammarsmark (2008) data and the MODFLOW simulations. These suggest that after restoration the move to mesic and wet plant communities can lead to an increase of ET of around 12 inches, or one acre-foot per acre. Again using the MODFLOW simulations these changes in ET can be broken into spring (March to June) and summer (July to October) portions. As shown in the table below it can be expected that as the ET increases it will reflect greater availability of water later into the season. Thus, for the two models the higher the ET the higher the water loss from the meadow in the summer months. The increased storage capacity for the “typical” meadow is then calculated based on the geometry of the meadow. Applying a variety of specific yields (from 0.2 to 0.4) suggest that restoration, i.e. raising the channel 5 feet will produce from 25 to 50 additional acre feet of storage for the meadow. The argument that meadows provide value in terms of downstream flow rests on a number of presumptions. On the economic side the basic presumption is that early, or spring, season irrigation water is of lesser value than water that arrives in the summer, or later in the irrigation season. As discussed in Section 3 such a divergence can be represented by assigning a price for spring water of $125/AF and $200/AF for summer water. In order then to backtrack and complete the valuation exercise it is necessary to know how much spring and summer water the meadow produces pre- and post-restoration. As shown in Table 22 below this is accomplished by using the information on ET and storage. The underlying assumption is that inflows to the meadow do not change, but the loss of water to ET and the gain/loss to storage will drive changes in flows downstream of the meadow. Using the base case as an example, the 50 AF increase in ET post-restoration is evenly divided between spring and summer. The 40 AF of added water storage capacity is considered to be filled during the spring due to peak flows and snow melt. Thus, during the spring months there is a 65 AF loss of downstream flow. In the summer months if it is assumed that the added storage is released then there is a 40 AF gain in water. However, the 25 AF of ET must be deducted in order to calculate the net change in downstream flow. In this case there is a gain of 15 AF. 47 Table 22. Meadow Hydrogeology and Water Productivity – Model #1 Water Productivity Changes-Model #1 Changes (Pre- to Post-Restoration) ET Increase (AF/Acre) ET Increase (AF) Spring (Mar-Jun) Summer (Jul-Oct) Water Storage Volume Increase (AF) Additional Spring Storage (AF) Downstream Flow Change (AF) Spring (ET plus storage) Summer (ET less storage release) Net Returns Price of Spring Flows ($/AF) Price of Winter Flows ($/AF) Water Benefits ($/yr) Value of Spring Flows ($/AF) Value of Winter Flows ($/AF) Annual Figures Change in Benefits ($/year) (per acre) Present Values Economic Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) Sensitivity Analysis High 1.00 50.00 25.00 25.00 40.00 40.00 1.50 75.00 25.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 Scenario Base 1.00 50.00 25.00 25.00 40.00 40.00 (65.00) (75.00) (65.00) 15.00 15.00 Scenario Sensitivity Analysis High Base $ 46 $ 100 $ 125 $ $ 200 $ 200 $ 200 $ $ $ (2,990) $ 3,000 $ 0.75 37.50 25.00 12.50 25.00 25.00 (50.00) 12.50 Low 50 75 (7,500) $ $ (8,125) $ 3,000 $ (2,500) 938 (7,500) $ (150) $ $ $ 10 0.20 (5,125) $ (103) $ (1,563) (31) $ 245 $ (124,632) $ (125,588) $ 0% -83% -100% 5 $ (2,493) $ (2,512) $ (67,341) -67% (1,347) $ $ $ Low When the 50 AF of spring loss is valued at $125/AF and the 15 AF of summer gain is valued at $200/AF there is a net loss in value of over $5,000 per year. In other words although there is a moderate gain in the more highly valued summer flow when offset against the lower value but higher volume spring loss the balance is negative. This applies also for the high and low scenarios using this model. The sensitivity analysis can be used to explore this approach further. With the base case flow values the price of spring water would have to be below $45/AF for the scenario to yield a positive economic outcome. In this regard it is worth noting that it may be incorrect to make the standard assumption that additional water received downstream and spilled from dams would be of no economic value. This, as downstream ecosystems, such as the Bay-Delta are imperiled. There is, thus, likely to always be an economic value for spring water. Indeed, the extent to which spring water is valued differently than summer water is uncertain and, therefore, different premia are explored in the low, base and high scenarios. Thus, Model #1 suggests that changes in downstream flows may represent costs rather than benefits. This fits somewhat with anecdotal reports and concerns of water rightholders located downstream from meadow restoration projects. However, this model excludes some potentially important hydrogeological parameters. It has been noted by hydrologists that one of the key issues with regard to meadows provision of post-restoration downstream flows is the rate with which stored water can move through meadows. If the rate is too slow, it is possible that the summer release of storage will not occur. Another factor not taken into account in Model #1 is that the meadow may not function like a reservoir that fills once and then releases its water. In Model #1 there was a simple assumption that at peak flows in the spring the meadow would fill and that, thereafter, the meadow would simply be draining. However, if the meadow is connected to surrounding geology then there is the possibility that as the 48 meadow drains during the summer it may also refill. Indeed, depending on how fast water moves through the meadow it may or may not release more or less than the actual storage capacity. In Model #2, therefore, this refill factor is included in order to simulate these processes. It is called the “Summer Storage Release Multiplier” in Table 23. In the low value scenario the multiplier is set to 0.5 meaning that only half of the stored water moves through the meadow and is released. In the base case a value of 1.0 assumes just a single turnover of storage. In the high value scenario the multiplier is set to 1.5. In other words the water is moving quickly and 1.5 times the actual capacity is released. For this second model, there is also an assumption that while the meadow might only flood during peak flows, it does remain saturated for the full year due to sub-surface flow from the surrounding geology. To a certain extent then Apportioning a debit for the storage thus makes little sense as it will always be more or less full. Indeed, it could be argued that just as with a reservoir, the idea of a debit for water stored is only applicable immediately after the restoration is completed and the meadow needs to fill for the first time. So, in Model #2 the debit for the change in storage for spring and summer seasons is removed from the model. As a result the change in downstream flow in the spring is assumed to be only the increased loss in ET. During the summer months the change is the increased ET as well as the increase in release of water stored (at the appropriate multiplier rate). The changes made to the geohydrology of the “typical” meadow in Model #2 improve the water balance in favor of restoration. The change in the losses in the spring months are considerably less and the possibility of late season gains stand out more clearly. Looking at the values in the table from right to left shows that with a low release multiplier there is still a loss in value, although in the base case there is effectively no net change in value. For the high scenario, with a multiplier of 1.5 the meadow generates strong positive returns of $2,500 per year. The present value for this scenario is $250,000, considerably higher than the restoration costs. Again, sensitivity analysis is used to explore how pricing matters. Using the high scenario water figures a set of lower values for water is used. With just a $50 gap between spring and summer water values the result is a present value of $125,000, which would just cover the costs of meadow restoration. 49 Table 23. Meadow Hydrogeology and Water Productivity – Model #2 Water Productivity Changes-Model #2 Changes (Pre- to Post-Restoration) ET Increase (AF/Acre) ET Increase (AF) Spring (Mar-Jun) Summer (Jul-Oct) Water Storage Volume Increase (AF) Summer Storage Releae Multiplier Downstream Flow Change (AF) Spring (ET only no storage) Summer (ET less storage release) Net Returns Price of Spring Flows ($/AF) Price of Winter Flows ($/AF) Water Benefits ($/yr) Value of Spring Flows ($/AF) Value of Winter Flows ($/AF) Annual Figures Change in Benefits ($/year) (per acre) Present Values Economic Profit (proportion of social cost) (per acre) Sensitivity Analysis Scenario Base High 1.50 75.00 25.00 50.00 50.00 1.50 1.50 75.00 25.00 50.00 50.00 1.50 1.00 50.00 25.00 25.00 40.00 1.00 (25.00) (25.00) (25.00) 25.00 25.00 15.00 Sensitivity Scenario Analysis High Base $ 50 $ 100 $ 125 $ $ 100 $ 200 $ 200 $ $ $ (1,250) $ 2,500 $ $ $ $ $ 1,250 25.00 $ $ 125,000 $ 100% 2,500 $ (2,500) $ 5,000 $ 2,500 50 $ $ 250,000 $ 167% 5,000 $ Low 0.75 37.50 25.00 12.50 25.00 0.50 (25.00) Low 50 75 (3,125) $ 3,000 $ (1,250) - (125) $ (3) $ (1,250) (25) (12,500) $ (125,000) -10% -125% (250) $ (2,500) The valuation models explored here are quite crude and generalized. However, they do provide some insight into the potential range of economic costs and benefits that could be associated with changes in downstream flow attributable to meadow restoration. The results here are not conclusive. To the extent that meadow restoration slows down the movement of water through the meadow there may be real costs associated with such projects from a downstream perspective. However, under opposite circumstances with meadows releasing larger amounts of water during the summer then such increases in flows would more than cancel out the loss of spring season flows and provide large economic returns. These returns would be sufficient to warrant public provision of incentives to landowners to engage in such projects. Further integrated hydro-economic modeling of some of the key parameters that respond to meadow restoration is warranted to gain a better understanding of where most meadows would be on this continuum of value. 4.5.3 Improved habitat for sensitive species Providing improved and increased extent of habitat for listed species is considered a public good. In the case of meadow restoration, the improved habitat conditions could occur either on or off-site. While the landowner will be in a position to capture some of these benefits many will accrue to other adjacent landowners and the public as a whole, rather than specifically to the personal gain of the land owner. Methods for quantifying changes in habitat quality have been applied by the US Fish and Wildlife Service since the 1980’s to assess environmental impacts of proposed projects on plant, fish, and wildlife habitat. 50 5. Conclusions The paper builds on a large amount of technical and economic information to try and assess the private and social incentives for restoration Sierra meadows. This is done by investigating first the private (financial) returns to restoration and then the social (or economic) returns of a number of cascading impacts of meadow restoration on ecosystem services and biodiversity (see Figure 5). A “typical” 50acre meadow restoration project is used to investigate these propositions. The conclusion of the private analysis is that the increase in returns from haying and ranching might be more significant than generally expected. Ranchers may earn a significant amount of net income off of restored meadows. Restoration projects should therefore seek appropriate cost-share levels. Figure 5. Cause and Effect: Meadow Restoration and Ecosystem Services/Biodiversity Investment in Pond and Plug Meadow projects alters Channel Condition producing: Reduced bank erosion and fine sediment storage (on-site) leading Reduction in sediment load and delivery downstream Change in water storage (on-site) and evapotranspiration which lead to Improved rangeland productivity Change in above and below ground carbon storage Decrease in peak flood flows downstream Change in timing of flow releases downstream Improved habitat for meadow-dependent species Restores of original or side stream channels (on-site) Restore flow, change water temperature Increase Aquatic Habitat Quality and Productivity Notes: Direct Drivers; Services Valued; Services Described Only With regard to the question of economic returns and social incentives the results suggest the need to focus on on-site issues and the role of habitat and wildlife. When societies longer time horizon and emphasis on future consumption are considered the on-site ranching returns assume an even more significant importance. The rationale for providing incentives to private landowners to engage in restoration may also include the long-term economic productivity of meadows for ranching. The off-site hydrological benefits of restoration are explored in the paper and can generally be summarized as having likely been overstated in past efforts. Flood attenuation and sediment reduction are expected to be generally of little consequence, though such a generalization is awkward give the site specific nature of the benefits. The paper spends considerable effort on downstream flows and finds no generalization possible. Some original evidence is provided for benefits from restored meadows during dry years; however, the same data suggests even larger benefits from unrestored meadows during wet years. It may be that in many cases the changes are not of significance but there is room for these changes to be both significantly positive and negative in economic terms. Further applied research is therefore well advised in order to tease out the key parameters that can assist in developing predictive hydro-economic models of the flow response to restoration. And, finally, changes in fish and wildlife habitat are likely to generate both private and social returns. How, significant these may be in dollar terms was not explored in this study. However, given the significance of the on-site benefits it is clear there is room for significant habitat benefits. Unfortunately, the question of jointly realizable habitat and livestock benefits from meadow restoration appears to be largely unexplored. 51 Table 24. Summary of Economic Valuation Results Ecosystem Service A. On-Site Benefits Forage and beef production B. Off-Site Benefits Sediment reduction Downstream flows C. On- & Off-Site Benefits Habitat improvement Direction and estimate of change in service with restoration Base Case Scenario High Scenario Low Scenario ($/acre) ($/acre) ($/acre) Positive, medium to large $900-$2,500 $1,100-$4,500 $600-$700 Positive, small Positive or Negative, small to large $10 $-250 $19 $5,000 $1 $-2,500 Positive, large Not valued In sum, caution may be needed to avoid potential downstream costs. But absent such impacts the economic picture is favorable for meadow restoration and there exists a clear role for landowner participation and contribution, as well as the use of public incentives to empower restoration projects. A number of general recommendations for further work include: Standards and protocols for measuring key variables pre- and post-restoration Academic research needs to be better connected to practitioner monitoring and evaluation (and vice versa) Dataset on impacts needs to be improved While some aspects of meadow restoration are well understood, studies disagree primarily on the impact of restoration on stream and groundwater outflow. Ideally future studies will focus on this issue specifically (and sources of temporal and spatial variation in downstream flow response), possibly with other water budget modeling efforts or before and after studies of restoration projects. Questions include: How does variation in bedrock vs. alluvial conductivity affect meadow hydrology? What are the major controls on groundwater contributions to downstream discharge (and how can these be measured)? Are there other properties of the meadow or catchment area that affect stream outflow that aren’t currently being measured? With regard to the key uncertainties surround downstream flows recommendations fall into a monitoring and an evaluation context. First, in terms of baseline and post project monitoring, the installation continuous recorders along channel directly above and below meadows and more frequent documentation on channel cross section changes to support the rating curve is recommended. Also, increased monitoring duration during the pre-restoration and post-restoration periods is advisable so that multiple years and a variation in hydrological condition can be captured in response data. It is recommended that the hydro-economic modeling approach taken here be pursued further. Such an integrated approach would first take an existing meadow MODLFOW model and ensure that is inputs and outputs are consistent with economic modeling of scenarios. The model would then be used to simulate conditions and scenarios associated with restoration. Key data needs for transference of the model to other meadows would be derived. The model would then be linked to changes in economic productivity approach for valuing water and, potentially, changes in water quality parameters, including sediment. 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G., 1995: Climate, geography, and tree establishment in subalpine meadows of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Arctic and Alpine Research, 27: 217–225. 58 APPENDIX 1. Conceptual Framework for Evaluation of Meadow Restoration The analysis seeks to identify market and policy incentives critical to land use decision-making in Sierra Meadows, in particular those that lead landholders to continue livestock production on holdings currently dedicated to pasture. Ranchers are assumed to be profit maximizers, operating in an environment in which market and policy conditions may not always lead to decisions that consistently maximize both landholder profits and economic welfare. For convenience the term “rancher” is used to refer to the land use decision-maker, who may be either a rancher or a dairy farmer (or engaged in a combination of both activities). This section lays out the framework and steps necessary to identify potential conflicts between these two viewpoints using a quantitative, cost-benefit approach and consists of four steps divided into three phases, as presented originally in Aylward et al. (1995) and explained below. Private Incentives The first step is to determine the benefits and costs of ranching from the private perspective, BP and CP, that is, how ranchers view them. The costs and benefits are discounted intertemporal returns, i.e. net present values, though the formulation is simplified here. The result is the private returns (RP)to ranching: R B C Normally the expected financial value of these returns should be positive for ranchers actively engaging in ranching. However, in actuality there may be some non-financial benefits perceived by the rancher that make up the difference for the individual in the event that ranching is not truly a profit-making exercise from the individual perspective. These benefits labeled here as “quality of life” benefits are not technically part of the equation as formulated but could be loosely considered to be part of the BP. Regardless that these non-financial benefits (and motives) exist should be remembered as the framework is presented and evaluated. The expected returns for the rancher can be portrayed under a business as usual approach (BAU) and a meadow restoration (MR) alternative. R P BAU B P BAU C P BAU R P MR B P MR C P MR The key question then is whether the net returns from meadow restoration – as opposed to business as usual management – are positive or negative: If R MR R BAU then the landowner should be motivated by their own self-benefit to turn to meadow restoration. If R MR R BAU then the landowner is presumed to be unmotivated of their own accord to adopt meadow restoration and would require an incentive, I, such that I R BAU R MR to adopt meadow restoration. So what changes for the rancher in adopting meadow restoration. It is these changes that will determine how attractive meadow restoration is or is not to the rancher. The first most obvious change is that the initial restoration activities need to be performed. These can be simplified to design, permitting and construction of the restoration project, such as plug-and-pond. These can be considered as the investment costs of the restoration project, ICMR. Then in subsequent years there may be additional 59 operations and maintenance activities on the project, CMR. For example, the rancher may actively encourage the change in plant ecology by seeding new grass species. Or the rancher may remove dead brush or trees that can no longer survive in the wet meadow. All of these costs will accompany the normal variable costs of ranching, CR. On the output or benefit side a number of aspects of the ranching operation are likely to change. Rising groundwater table will lead to a change in the mix and prevalence of grasses and shrubs that will inhabit the pasture and at what period they will be available as forage to livestock. Ideally meadow restoration will either promote more palatable species, make more forage available, or make forage available later in the season when lower non-irrigated altitude pastures see declining productivity. This increase in forage productivity should lead to an increase in weight gain by livestock over the course of the time they spend on the meadow during the season. The end result would be a change, and presumably an increase, in the amount of financial benefit from the sale of livestock between the BAU and meadow restoration scenarios, RB. A number of additional ecosystem service and biodiversity benefits, ES, compared to the BAU situation may accrue to the landowner under meadow restoration: a reduction of bank erosion and maintenance of grazable land area a reduction in soil or wind erosion due to a wetter pasture during the later summer months increase in wildlife habitat providing increased aesthetic and hunting opportunities on the private meadow So in order to more fully map out the returns under business as usual management and the meadow restoration alternative we have the following expressions for the returns to each alternative: R BAU RB BAU RC BAU R MR RB MR ES MR RC MR IC MR C MR Grouping key terms the net returns to moving to the alternative of meadow restoration can be specified as follows: NR MR (RB MR RB BAU ) ES MR (RC MR RC BAU ) (IC MR C MR ) The direct costs (investment and O&M) costs of meadow restoration will be negative and it is assumed that changes in on-site ecosystem services are beneficial on net. Thus, key questions in terms of the direction of change under restoration include: is there an increase in livestock benefits under restoration? is there a change in ranching variable costs under restoration? If it is assumed that the on-site ecosystem service values will be relatively low and that the change in ranching variable costs will be negligible the question of net returns simplifies to whether the change in livestock benefits outweighs the direct costs of meadow restoration. If it does then the landowner may not need an incentive to change behavior and invest in meadow restoration. However, it is quite possible the even though the net returns of meadow restoration may be positive little adoption is witnessed. How can this be? Inertia can be caused either by transaction costs or economic hysteresis. The adoption of meadow restoration can be viewed as a transaction that the landowner must enter into. The process of searching for, entering into, and supervising/monitoring/enforcing improved land management projects represent transaction costs not captured in the project economics covered above. These costs form another hurdle that a project must overcome to make adoption worthwhile to the 60 landowner. Typically, an important role played by public agencies and non-profit groups is to minimize these costs by conducting outreach and education, as well as carrying out project implementation for landowners. And finally, economic hysteresis simply refers to path dependency associated with the business as usual scenario. In order for a landowner to adopt a new practice it is typically not enough that the net benefits be positive, they must be significantly positive. This is because the costs of adopting new practices are often irreversible, the outcomes are uncertain, and there is no urgency – the landowner can choose to wait and see. In sum, the livestock benefits must be significantly larger than the restoration costs for the landowner to take action. Private and Societal Incentives Given Policy Distortions and On-Site Market Imperfections The second phase of economic evaluation should involve the adjustment of the net benefits of ranching under the two scenarios to reflect the removal of policy or on-site market imperfections (not including off-site changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity) that factor into private decision-making. This phase involves two distinct steps: (1) standard economic project evaluation adjustments for distortions of input and output prices and (2) “environmental” adjustments to account for land-related distortions or imperfections. It is not clear that these distortions will represent a significant factor in the case of meadow restoration in the Sierra; however, at least a cursory investigation of these distortions or imperfections is needed in order to provide a comprehensive framework for economic analysis. The point of this analysis is to indicate whether or not, for example, it would be better public policy to simply provide incentives for the rancher to stick to business as usual (BAU) practices. In other words, if the playing field was leveled, the rancher might have enough incentive to pursue restoration for his/her own benefit. Removal of Policy Distortions. First, benefits and costs as currently perceived by ranchers should be reviewed to determine whether or not market distortions introduced by policies are driving a significant wedge between actual market prices and “economic” prices. This transformation of market prices to “economic” or shadow prices involves examination of any distortions in input and output prices and the use of social rates of discount in place of private rates. The result adjusts the returns to BAU and meadow restoration to their economic, as opposed to financial, values. For the purposes of the current project such an investigation could be carried out or the literature surveyed. However, the overarching NFWF Business Plan is probably not of requisite scale to warrant expecting a change of state or federal policies affecting beef prices or the prices of fuel or other agricultural inputs. Such a step would therefore be of limited practical impact in delivering technical assistance or financial incentives to landowners to adopt meadows restoration. In sum, we will leave any existing policy distortions in place, and therefore they do not need to be independently quantified. Removal of On-site Market Imperfections. There may also exist policy distortions and market imperfections that induce ranchers to ignore important land and environmentally related impacts of their land use on production and, thereby, fail to achieve a level of production that would be privately efficient in the absence of such failures. Four processes may be driving ranchers to make less than perfect decisions in this regard: (1) conditions in capital markets that lead to a private discount rate that greatly exceeds the social discount rate, (2) insecurity over land tenure, (3) a failure of the asset markets for land to accurately reflect land values and (4) a lack of information regarding the long-run impact on productivity of current land husbandry practices. The existence of these conditions could lead to a disparity between the rate at which the rancher “uses” the soil resource and that at which society would prefer the resource to be “used.” The intertemporal “loss” of productivity that results is called the “user cost” of soil erosion, and in practical terms reflects 61 the value of lost future productivity incurred by ranchers who degrade their soil resource faster than is economically optimal, as measured with the social rate of discount. If these failures exist, then by implication the economic returns to ranching are not adequately reflected in the previous equation. Instead it is necessary to also include the user cost of soil erosion, UC, into the equation. The economic returns to ranching then become: R BAU RB BAU RC BAU UC BAU Arguably, the adoption of meadow restoration puts the rancher back on a sustainable trajectory and would reduce or eliminate these user costs. The practical question is whether in this case policies that create user costs exist and whether these are large enough to lead to soil erosion rates that greatly affect the long-term sustainability of Sierra meadows. At first glance this does not appear to be the case in terms of erosion off of lands. However, channel erosion in degraded meadows is significant. While it is true that overtime this reduces the land area available for livestock it is not clear that this is a large enough impact to warrant further investigation. Of the four causal factors listed above probably only (1) and (4) may apply in this context. Causes linked to capital markets suffer from the same issue as policy distortions. The issue is too large for this project to resolve. But the implications can be explored in terms of the potential divergence of private and social value. The issue of long-term impacts and understanding is one that this project could address – in part by quantifying and valuing the loss of usable grazing area due to channel incision and bank erosion over time. If better information regarding the long-run impact on productivity of current and alternative land husbandry practices were made available to ranchers, it might importantly their land use decisions and increase their overall productivity and alter the manner in which they evaluate meadow restoration opportunities. Societal Incentives and Off-site Costs and Benefits The next step in the framework is to incorporate off-site, or external, costs and benefits associated with business as usual and the meadow restoration land use practices in the watershed. Given the debate over whether meadow restoration harms or helps downstream water users in the Sierra it is particularly important to keep in mind that downstream changes may have a direction that is either positive – i.e. creating benefits or negative – creating costs. Changes in off-site costs and benefits by definition have an impact on other consumers and producers and not the landowner. Generally, then the market provides no incentive to ranchers to incorporate these off-site impacts of their land use into their own profitmaximizing framework. These off-site costs and benefits are included, however, in the analysis of returns from society's perspective, R*. The full specification of the economic returns from ranching under either business as usual or meadow restoration must also include the external costs and benefits of ranching, EC and EB: R BAU * B BAU C BAU UC BAU EC BAU EB BAU R MR * RB MR ES MR RC MR IC MR C MR EC MR EB MR Again, grouping key terms, the net returns to moving to the alternative of meadow restoration can be specified as follows: NR M R * ( RB M R RBBAU ) ES M R ( RC M R RC BAU ) ( IC M R C M R ) ( EB M R EB BAU ) ( EC M R EC BAU ) If the net economic returns to meadow restoration are negative, once external costs and benefits are included, then as stated above there is no economic rationale for pushing restoration on to private 62 landowners. On the other hand if the net economic returns are positive then the market failure that precludes the internalization of these external effects into the farmer's land use decision framework is leading to net economic losses to society. In other words if the net external benefits accrued to the rancher and not to society broadly speaking the rancher would have the incentive to invest in restoration. Compared with the private returns (and reclassifying the change in external costs and benefits caused by moving from BAU to restoration as ) it is the net external benefits, NEB, that is the tipping factor in determining the net returns to meadow restoration. These net economic benefits are represented as follows: More to the point, these external costs and benefits stem from the off-site change in ecosystem services and biodiversity that result from meadow restoration. These were discussed earlier based on the NFWF business plan but can be restated and added to based on an economic concept of value: As represented earlier but slightly reformulated these are likely to include changes in hydrological and ecosystem function downstream affecting a number of specific services, including: amount and timing of flow, Q levels of suspended sediment, SS downstream sedimentation, S downstream water temperatures, T habitat for fish and wildlife, HD/S Other offsite but not necessarily downstream changes in service levels may include: feed, refugia and other habitat benefits for birds and wildlife, HOS carbon storage, above and below ground, CS Taking note of each of these individually then the net external benefits can be reformulated as the value of the change in provision of these functions:, as represented by the change in service level multiplied by the economic price for the service: Note that changes in Q can be described in many different ways, all of which reflect the idea that more or less water during a specific time period imposes costs or benefits on downstream consumers – whether these are the benefits/costs of an increase/reduction in late season water availability or the incremental reduction in damages of having a less flashy hydrograph (i.e. flood attenuation benefits). If it is assumed that the private incentives to engage in meadow restoration are lacking then obviously a substantial and countervailing net external benefit is necessary to argue that market failure is pertinent and that there is an economic argument for providing incentives that achieve incentive compatibility, i.e. that motivate ranchers to pursue a course of action that is aligned with the common good, and not just the rancher’s self-interest. Clearly, the economic framework presented above is a fairly simplistic and utilitarian approach to what is a very complicated problem, including, as it does, socio-economic, biophysical and institutional components. However, the discussion makes two points clear with regard to the assumed need for incentives to motivate ranchers to engage in restoration on their lands: 63 First, make sure incentives are needed, i.e. examine the on-site benefits of meadow restoration and examine whether they should be sufficient to motivate adoption of restoration approaches Second, make sure incentives are warranted, i.e. examine the off-site net benefits of changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity before assuming that financial incentives should be provided to ranchers to adopt restoration approaches 64 Van Dyke and 1 Darragh 2006 Kauffman et al. 1 2004 Artemisia tridentata ssp. vaseyana Shrubland Alliance (1) xeric Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous Stands (1) xeric 1 Cole et al. 2004 Carex filifolia Herbaceous Alliance (1) xeric >100 1 Cole et al. 2004 Carex filifolia Herbaceous Alliance (1) xeric >100 Gaylor Lakes basin 602 (Yosemite/Sierra Nevada) 1 Ratliff 1985 Carex filifolia Herbaceous Alliance (1) xeric >100 285 Sierra Nevada xeric >100 West and west-central Sierra 200 Valley and Goodrich Creek 1 Murphy 2009 >100 2 Dwire et al. 2004 2 McIlroy 2008 Carex microptera Provisional Herbaceous dry mesic 2 Murphy 2009 2 McIlroy 2008 432 South central Montana Middle Fork John Day River, 4853 Oregon Gaylor Lakes basin 687 (Yosemite/Sierra Nevada) >100 Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous Stands (1) dry mesic Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous Stands (1) dry mesic 2 Dwire et al. 2004 -63 +- 24' -56 +-23' West Chicken Creek in Eastern 5834.85 Oregon Limber Jim Creek in Eastern 4576.88 Oregon Sierra National Forest, 2315 Stanislaus National Forest West and west-central Sierra 400 Valley and Goodrich Creek mesic Veratrum californicum Herbaceous Alliance (1) Sierra National Forest, 4453 Stanislaus National Forest mesic 2 McIlroy 2008 Veratrum californicum Herbaceous Alliance (1) Veratrum californicum Herbaceous Alliance (1) 2 McIlroy 2008 Carex nebrascensis Herbaceous Alliance (1) mesic mesic Sierra National Forest, 2873 Stanislaus National Forest 2 Cole et al. 2004 Calamagrostis breweri Vegetative Series(2), Shorthair sedge - Shorthair reedgrass Plant Association (3) Normal' Ratliff 1985 2391 Tuolumne Meadows 2 McIlroy 2008 mesic -53.76 4283 Stanislaus National Forest mesic -37.69 2987 Stanislaus National Forest mesic 2 Cole et al. 2004 Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous Stands (1) mesic Calamagrostis breweri Vegetative Series (2), Shorthair sedge - Shorthair reedgrass Plant Association (3) mesic 2 Allen-Diaz 1991 Project location Production Total Dry lb/acre Water Table Depth (cm) and/or Ratliff hydrologic class Hydrologic regime Vegetation Type Class Citation Meadow type code APPENDIX 2. Forage Productivity Studies -61.7 to 25.8 Sagehen Creek Basin, northern 2264.8 Sierra Nevada Normal' Ratliff 1985 1450 Tuolumne Meadows 2 Ratliff 1985 Calamagrostis breweri Vegetative Series (2), Shorthair sedge - Shorthair reedgrass Plant Association (3) mesic Normal' Ratliff 1985 1065 Sierra Nevada 2 Allen-Diaz 1991 Deschampsia caespitosa Herbaceous Alliance (1) -93.8 to -6.4 Sagehen Creek Basin, northern 2563 Sierra Nevada mesic 65 Hanging, wet-mesic Normal Hanging, wet-mesic Normal 4 Ratliff 1985 Deschampsia caespitosa Herbaceous Alliance (1) Hanging, wet-mesic Normal 2405 Sierra Nevada wet-mesic -37.82 3293 Stanislaus National Forest wet-mesic -37.03 3283 Stanislaus National Forest Project location Production Total Dry lb/acre Water Table Depth (cm) and/or Ratliff hydrologic class Hydrologic regime Vegetation Type Class Citation Meadow type code 4 Cole et al. 2004 Deschampsia caespitosa Herbaceous Alliance (1) Deschampsia caespitosa Herbaceous Alliance (1) 4 Cole et al. 2004 3323 Harden Lake 3248 Harden Lake 4 McIlroy 2008 Carex (utriculata, vesicaria) Herbaceous Alliance (1) Carex (utriculata, vesicaria) Herbaceous Alliance (1) 4 Allen-Diaz 1991 Poa pratensis Semi-Natural Herbaceous -50.4 to Stands (1) wet-mesic 18.6 Sagehen Creek Basin, northern 3085.16 Sierra Nevada 4 Allen-Diaz 1991 Carex angustata/Poa pratensis (4) -51.2 to wet-mesic 31.7 4 McIlroy 2008 Carex jonesii Herbaceous Alliance (1) wet-mesic Wet-mesic 4 McIlroy 2008 wet-mesic Wet-mesic Few-flowered Spikerush Vegetation Series (2); Few flowered spikerush/Primrose monkey flower Plant Hanging, Association (3) wet-mesic Normal Sagehen Creek Basin, northern 2750.91 Sierra Nevada Sierra National Forest, 2177 Stanislaus National Forest Sierra National Forest, 2004 Stanislaus National Forest 4 McIlroy 2008 4 Ratcliff 1985 4 McIlroy 2008 Eleocharis macrostachya Herbaceous Alliance (1) Eleocharis macrostachya Herbaceous Alliance (1) Kauffman et al. 4 2004 Carex nebrascensis Herbaceous Alliance wet 4 Allen-Diaz 1991 Carex angustata (4) 4 Ratliff 1985 Carex nebrascensis Herbaceous Alliance (1) wet 4 McIlroy 2008 4 Murphy 2009 4 McIlroy 2008 4 McIlroy 2008 1145 Sierra Nevada wet -12.1 2712 Sierra National Forest wet -17.03 Wet -- high water near surface all year ('anaerobic) 2314 Sierra National Forest wet wet Few-flowered Spikerush Vegetation Series (2); Few flowered spikerush/Primrose monkey flower Plant Association (3) wet Eleocharis macrostachya Herbaceous Alliance (1) wet -36.0 to -2.9 Normal, hanging, lotic Lotic Middle Fork John Day River, 6317 Oregon Sagehen Creek Basin, northern 2953.41 Sierra Nevada 2805 Sierra Nevada West and west-central Sierra 1950 Valley and Goodrich Creek -5.28 1922 Sierra National Forest -11.4 1893 Sierra National Forest 4 McIlroy 2008 Carex (utriculata, vesicaria) Herbaceous Alliance (1) wet Few-flowered Spikerush Vegetation Series (2); Few flowered spikerush/Primrose monkey flower Plant Association (3) wet 4 McIlroy 2008 Few-flowered Spikerush Vegetation Series (2); Few flowered spikerush/Primrose monkey flower Plant Association (3) wet -35.74 4 Murphy 2009 wet Lotic Normal 1477 Sierra National Forest West and west-central Sierra 1350 Valley and Goodrich Creek Lotic 1010 Sierra Nevada 4 Ratcliff 1985 5 Ratliff 1985 Slender Spikerush Vegetation Series (2); wet lotic 1650 Sierra Nevada -4.12 66 1625 Sierra National Forest APPENDIX 3. Trout Creek Hydrographs Figure 3-1. Trout Creek Hydrograph, 1990-2010 67 Figure 3-1a. Wet Water Year Hydrographs High Flow Year ‐ 1993 vs 2005 150 Stream Flow Above Restored Reach in CFS 1993 130 2005 110 90 70 50 30 10 ‐10 1‐Jan 1‐Feb 1‐Mar 1‐Apr 1‐May 1‐Jun 1‐Jul 1‐Aug 1‐Sep 1‐Oct 1‐Nov 1‐Dec Figure 3-1b. Wet Water Year Comparisons High Flow Year ‐ 1993 vs 2005 20 1993 Gain (Loss) in Restored Reach 15 2005 10 5 0 1‐Jan 1‐Feb 1‐Mar 1‐Apr 1‐May 1‐Jun 1‐Jul 1‐Aug 1‐Sep 1‐Oct 1‐Nov 1‐Dec ‐5 ‐10 Notes: Gains/Losses at the downstream Trout Creek gage pre-restoration vs post-restoration 68 Figure 3-2a. 80% Water Year Hydrographs Figure 3-2b. 80% Water Year Comparisons Notes: Gains/Losses at the downstream Trout Creek gage pre-restoration vs post-restoration 69 Figure 3-3a Dry Water Year Hydrographs Figure 3-3b. Dry Water Year Comparisons Notes: Gains/Losses at the downstream Trout Creek gage pre-restoration vs post-restoration 70 APPENDIX 4: Detailed Economic Evaluation Literature Review Ingram, W., and J. Loomis. 1989. Valuing Watershed Restoration Projects. Prepared in cooperation with Pacific Gas and Electric Company. Davis: University of California at Davis. This report appears to have had the original intent of conducting an economic evaluation of the impacts of the Red Clover Creek meadow restoration project in the Feather river system. The report includes literature review and methodological suggestions, but in the end does not carry out such an analysis for the reasons stated as follows: ...it became clear early on that much of the physical and biological data necessary has not been collected. Nor are all of the requisite predictive mechanisms (quantitative models; methods relying on professional judgment) available. Although this is in part due to the fact that not all of the effects of the recently-installed Red Clover project have begun occurring, it is nonetheless clear that the a prior evaluation of such projects will require certain baseline data, as well as appropriate predictive capabilities. It is perhaps this report’s main contribution that such prerequisites are clearly identified (Ingram and Loomis 1989:2). It is at least worth remarking that the considerable difficulty experienced in Section 2 of this paper in finding well-documented case studies that provide reliable and significant analyses of project hydrological (and other) impacts suggests that their was little uptake of the recommendations put forth in this paper and that the information that has since been generated is difficult to track down and not organized into a single library (other than the Feather CRM website). While the paper covers a wide swathe of ground with respect to the economic methods that may be deployed these methods are clearly not the impediment to the analysis. In the paper’s recommendations the comment is made that there is a need for interdisciplinary models (i.e. predictive models). Over 20 years later this remains the case. More to the point is that what is lacking is the data and empirical analyses necessary to underpin a predictive model. In the literature search conducted for the report Ingram and Loomis (1989) found little literature relevant to livestock grazing and erosion. Most of the valuation literature they found was related to agriculture or timber harvesting and impacts on water quality/quantity. This literature is not informative with respect to the impacts of meadow restoration projects. The results from other studies for these services cited in the report cannot be extrapolated or used to derive relevant parameters for the valuation of meadow restoration projects. However, the report does contain a number of (now somewhat dated) observations on how to value specific ecosystem services as well as some literature and figures pertinent to forage and water in Sierra Meadows and California. These findings are reported later in the next sub-section under the appropriate subject heading. Jones and Stokes. 2008. Consultant's Report: Plumas Watershed Forum Program Review. Prepared for Plumas County Flood Control and Water Conservation District. Sacramento: Jones & Stokes. The report notes that reducing sedimentation of reservoirs and increasing late season base flow from the Feather River head waters can both provide benefits to state water contractors that can be valued at the marginal price of new water supply. The report states that it does not analyze the water law implications of any such changes. For the biophysical analysis a number of interesting points of relevance include: specific yield of Feather River sites is taken as 33% but includes sensitivity analysis down to 20% grossing up of mm/day ET differences between incised and restored meadows suggests 1.7 AF of ET loss (presumably per acre); this is a very large number but the study suggests this parses out 71 as 0.17 AF per foot of restored storage and thus leaves 83% of new storage available for “delayed stream flow augmentation” relying on a single study of Last Chance late season flow (June-October) in a wet year is taken to be equal to the new groundwater storage created; there is no discussion of how this would work in dry/normal years – arguably the groundwater reservoir would be lower in such years and thus not discharge (or spill) as much water With respect to the economic analysis the evaluation criterion chosen is Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), using discounted costs and benefits. While the exceptions may not apply here it is well recognized that BCR is an inferior approach to using net present value as it can lead to incorrect decisions (Jenkins and Harberger 1989). The paper goes on at length about the selection of an appropriate discount rate. Jones & Stokes ends up selecting the rates recommended by the Office of Management and Budget of 7% while exploring the impacts of a lower 3% rate. The paper goes on to calculate water supply benefits for the upper Feather River as follows: 576,000 AF of total dewatered sediment volume due to incisions applying specific yield (effective porosity) gives 190,000 AF of groundwater storage lost due to incision based on Feather River CRM estimates that only 70% of the incised area can feasibly be restored gives 133,000 AF of storage that could b restored ET loss of 17% gives a total of 110,000 AF that could end up as base flow augmentation For the costs and benefits the following figures were used and calculated: costs of restoration were expected to be $550 AF based on Feather River CRM project data and a 0.50 shape factor total costs to completely restore available sites over 50 years was $4.4 million a value for water is derived from the environmental water account at $150 per AF The BCR for a 7% discount rate is 1 (break-even) if benefits are included for 50 years, rising to a BCR of 1.14 if 100 years of benefits are included. In other words, given the assumptions made the benefits outweigh the costs and restoration is justified. The costs of restoration per acre foot of augmented base flow are also stated to be $2,008 per AF. Given the $550/AF number cited a number of times it appears that perhaps the $550/AF number is gross storage volume before all the conversions. In other words it costs $2,008 to produce a single AF of effective base flow. Based on sensitivity analysis the authors suggest that the factors that drive the results (apart from scale of the problem) are: discount rates, thought lower rates improve the BCR specific yield, with lower yield dropping the BCR a higher shape factor improves the BCR higher price for water improves the BCR There are a number of other caveats or limitations that apply here and would affect the net present value (NPV) of restoration in general, including: the 17% ET factor by depth seems odd given that CRM projects vary in terms of groundwater rise from 0 to 10 feet – the ET loss would be better expressed by unit area, this would lower the NPV since most of the projects have a lower rise in groundwater than that off of which the 17% is based 72 wet years by definition happen only a little less than half of the time, thus there is a need for some guesstimate of what would happen on average in terms of the release of stored groundwater, this would lower the NPV it is implicit that the storage volume is never filled without restoration, and this volume depends on the shape factor – the accuracy of these assumptions/parameters are not clear and might vary across wet and dry years the time to fill groundwater storage is not included – this would presumably impose costs downstream and lower the NPV the year(s) during which groundwater storage is filling would presumably produce less late season flow downstream and this would lower the NPV in dry years, if not normal years, presumably all the water is stored and used, and thus the value of groundwater storage should be any increase in value between water that is stored in reservoirs and used versus that water which is provided as stream flow in the late season and then used as natural flow (or carried over in storage), this would lower NPV the seniority of water rights to stored water and natural flow and the impact that might have on realized water values is not included, this could increase or decrease NPV the value of water is sorely under-estimated if it is intend to be the marginal cost of new supply, this would greatly increase NPV The paper also briefly considers the reduction in sedimentation of reservoirs but finds that there is no monitoring data for sediment yield. Assuming that progress has been limited the paper assumes that the impact in terms of reduction in sediment yield is positive and significant but makes no effort to value it. Buckley, M., M. Souhlas, E. Niemi, E. Warren, and S. Reich. 2011. The Economic Value of Beaver Ecosystem Services: Escalante River Basin, Utah. Portland: ECONorthwest. This report is relevant because to some extent beavers are a substitute for physical restoration approaches in stream systems. Beaver dams hold back water just as do pond and plug approaches. In forecasting a beaver “build-out” scenario Buckley et al. (2011) prognosticate that with beavers could place between 11 and 22 dams per mile of waterway resulting in ponds of 0.5 to 1.5 acres in size. As a result many of the potential impacts identified by this study are quite similar to those identified above for restoration of meadow ecosystems. These impacts are reproduced below by extracting Table ES1 from the publication. 73 The table from the paper simply reinforces the difficult nature of arriving at a standard set of ecosystem services. In particular, the water quantity impacts probably reflect the same concerns as those expressed in this paper but are broken into seven different types of impacts. The paper uses a number of physical and chemical parameters to estimate how saturating Escalante waterways with beaver dams would affect surface water storage, groundwater recharge, the surface water flow regime and a number of water quality indicators (including sediment storage), as well as habitat and other outcomes. In doing so the study relies on an extensive scientific literature on beavers and their impacts on hydrogeology and ecosystems. The study then goes on to examines the potential benefits of these services with respect to a “with” beavers scenario (saturating the landscape). The paper quantifies the following “process effects” based on the number of dams and their size: water storage sediment capture water temperature habitat creation The paper then goes on to monetize the following services: 74 water storage, sediment retention, pollutant storage temperature reduction riparian habitat wetland habitat aquatic habitat recreation The paper emphasizes the economic impacts of increased dam building by beavers in terms of the avoided costs of water storage, habitat restoration and water quality treatment. Monetary indicators (per-unit values) arrived at for the Escalante case are provided in Table ES-1 reproduced below. The per unit values are combined with net impacts from the saturation of the landscape to yield watershed wide estimates of the potential benefits of ecosystem services that could be created by beavers. The resulting numbers suffer are often overly large, but demonstrate the method of combining natural science estimates with value estimates to arrive at rough values for ecosystems services from restoration efforts. This approach is similar to that being attempted for meadows in this paper, except that the ECONorthwest paper does not examine the incentives issues and the distribution of costs and benefits. 75 Unfortunately the section on benefit valuation suffers from a number of limitations. Thus, there is no point in going through it in detail. However, a number of relevant observations on the valuation analyses in the paper include: the study assumes that all the sediment stored by beaver dams would be dredged at $2 per cubic yard, however cite no evidence that any dredging occurs currently so this is an unreliable estimate using the replacement cost approach (results suggest over $2 billion in value, though numbers in the text differ from those in the tables) instead of a good example of the use of the avertive expenditures approach. Similarly, one calculation values stored water based on the cost of a dam retrofit project (again replacement cost) as versus calculated losses in productivity the paper cites studies showing high per household dollar values for improved water quality for boating, fishing and other uses and arrives at a figure of $100,000 per one percent improvement in water quality, however the expected low response of water quality to beaver dams leads ECONorthwest to conclude this service might not be large in value the paper cites a Portland, OR example of the water filtration benefits at $3,000/ acre; however the city has since been required to install a water treatment facility by EPA rule, thus, the example has little merit anymore the values attributed to riparian habitat are on the order of several hundred million to $1.4 billion but suffer from taking various assumptions of value and then applying them to all the acres and river miles in the basin. the cited values associated with wetland ecosystem services span a huge range from $18 to $183,000; by taking a mid-range estimate of $8,000 the issue of whether all wetlands are of such low or high values is assumed away the cited values associated with aquatic habitat from beaver ponds of $2,000 to $6,000/acre seem to be derived from contingent valuation studies of river-fed wetlands, but it is unclear why inhabitants of the basin or tourists would value each of 30,000 created beaver pods at thousands of dollars each In conclusion the ECONorthwest study suffers from the problem of trying to separate out a series of services as well as types of ecosystems across a large area and then applying unit values to what must be very different circumstances across the Escalante basin. To its credit, the study does not try and add these values up which would simply compound the error. The results could be off by several orders of magnitude but it is hard to tell give the presentation. The paper certainly is indicative of the difficulties encountered in conducting analyses of this kind. 76