Iran
Principals Committee
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You Are the NSC Principals Committee
Members:
Members:
••Secretary
Secretary of
of State.
State.
••Secretary
Secretary of
of the
the Treasury.
Treasury.
••Secretary
Secretary of
of Defense.
Defense.
••Chief
Chief of
of Staff
Staff to
to the
the President.
President.
••Assistant
Assistant to
to the
the President
President for
for National
National
Security
Security Affairs.
Affairs.
Others:
Others:
•• Director
Director of
of Central
Central
Intelligence.
Intelligence.
•• Chairman
Chairman of
of the
the Joint
Joint
Chiefs
Chiefs of
of Staff.
Staff.
•• Attorney
Attorney General.
General.
•• Director
Director of
of OMB.
OMB.
•• Secretary
Secretary of
of Commerce.
Commerce.
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Others
Others (cont):
(cont):
•• US
US United
United States
States Trade
Trade
Representative.
Representative.
•• Assistant
Assistant to
to the
the President
President
for
for Economic
Economic Policy.
Policy.
•• Secretary
Secretary of
of Agriculture.
Agriculture.
•• Others
Others as
as appropriate.
appropriate.
2
Agenda
• Opening Remarks (NSC - 5 minutes)
• Threat Assessment (DCI- 45 minutes)
• Planning Military Options (OSD, Commander
CENTCOM - 60 minutes)
•
•
Strategic Communications Plan (NSC- 20 minutes)
Summary (NSC - 5 minutes)
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Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
Opening Remarks
Threat Assessment
Planning Military Options
Strategic Communications Plan
Summary
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Iran’s Nuclear Program
• Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty.
• Insists its nuclear program is for peaceful
purposes.
– Says that it will free up oil and natural gas for
export, generating hard currency.
– Objective is 10% of capacity by 2020.
• Russia and Iran signed a protocol for peaceful
cooperation in nuclear power, December 2002.
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Iran’s Nuclear Program:
Last 18 Months
Sep
Sep 2003
2003
IAEA
IAEA gave
gave 31
31 October
October
deadline
deadline to
to Iran:
Iran:
guarantees
and
guarantees and snap
snap 30
30 Oct
Oct
inspections
inspections IAEA
IAEA head
head said
said
Iran’s
Iran’s report
report was
was
comprehensive
comprehensive but
but
sill
sill questions
questions
Nov
Nov 2004
2004
IAEA
Still
IAEA Still Not
Not
Ready
Ready to
to
Report
Report
13
13 Sep
Sep
IAEA
IAEA Board
Board of
of
Governors;
Governors; US
US unable
unable to
to
generate
support
generate support
declare
declare Iran
Iran in
in nonnoncompliance
compliance to
to take
take the
the
issue
issue to
to UNSC
UNSC
18
18 Dec
Dec
66 Oct
Oct
Iran
Iran signed
signed
Iran’s
Iran’s IAEA
IAEA
Iran
Iran changed;
changed;
protocol
protocol allowing
allowing
representative
representative
inspection
inspection to
to
“comprehensive”
“comprehensive”
threatened
to
threatened to
continue
continue
access
access to
to sites
sites -withdraw
withdraw from
from the
the
not
14
not ratified
ratified yet
yet
14 Nov
Nov
NNPT
NNPT
Mar
Mar 2004
2004
Iran’s
Iran’s Foreign
Foreign
Announced
Announced itit was
was
Minister
Minister said
said they
they
barring
barring inspectors
inspectors
were
were committed
committed to
to
from
entering
from entering the
the
“complete
“complete
country.
country.
transparency”
transparency”
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The Intelligence Dilemma
• Iran is probably three
three years from a weapon.
––
––
Unless
Unless someone
someone has
has given
given help
help we
we don’t
don’t know.
know.
Unless
Unless they
they have
have been
been able
able to
to make
make purchases
purchases we
we don’t
don’t know.
know.
• There is the nuclear program we see, and there are the nuclear
programs we don’t see.
––
––
Possibly
Possibly more
more than
than one
one weapons
weapons program.
program.
Work
Work is
is deep
deep underground
underground and
and may
may be
be inside
inside cities.
cities.
• The intelligence dilemma is that we will most likely not know
when they have crossed our red lines.
Deliverable
Weapon
2005
2008
Enough
Enough Weapons
Weapons
Grade
Material
Grade Material
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The Targeting Dilemma
••
Dispersed
Dispersed nuclear
nuclear weapons
weapons will
will be
be very
very difficult
difficult to
to locate
locate even
even with
with
advances
advances in
in intelligence,
intelligence, surveillance
surveillance and
and reconnaissance.
reconnaissance.
–– The
The more
more weapons
weapons Iran
Iran has
has the
the more
more the
the problem
problem is
is compounded.
compounded.
••
Waiting
Waiting makes
makes the
the military
military problem
problem that
that much
much more
more difficult.
difficult.
Targeting
Targeting
Difficulty
Difficulty
Deliverable
Weapon
2005
2008
Enough
Enough Weapons
Weapons
Grade
Material
Grade Material
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Russian
Russian S-400
S-400 Air
Air Defense
Defense
System
System
400
400 KM
KM Range
Range
More
Difficult
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Iran’s Nuclear
Program
Feb 2003
• Iran announced mining
uranium deposits at
Saghand
• Also that it was
constructing enrichment
facility at Natanz
100
100 Miles
Miles South
South of
of Tehran
Tehran
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Arak
150
150 Miles
Miles South
South of
of Tehran
Tehran
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Bushehr Nuclear Reactor
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Bushehr Nuclear Reactor
• 10 August - Russian announcement that more than
90% of the project has been completed.
• Procurement has been completed.
• Remaining work includes assembly of equipment,
systems integration and preparing for operations.
…probably
…probably won’t
won’t be
be operating
operating
until
until 2006
2006
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Parchin
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Shahab-3
Photo:
Photo: 22
22 September
September 2003
2003
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Shahab-3
Most likely capable of delivering chemical weapons…
Earlier
Earlier Picture;
Picture; Slightly
Slightly Different
Different Launcher
Launcher
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~1500
~1500 Km
Km
~(850
~(850 miles)
miles)
Tehran
Baghdad
Shahab-3
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Chemical and Biological Weapons
• Chemical weapons programs.
–
–
–
Iran has ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Production capacity is ~1000 tons per year.
Inventory includes blister, blood and choking agents.
• Biological weapons programs
–
–
–
Iran has ratified the Biological Weapons convention.
Most efforts are advanced research and development.
Probably has a small BW arsenal.
Facility
Facility at
at Esfahan
Esfahan
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Iran’s Involvement in Iraq
• They want stability but their primary
weapons is instability.
• Iran has a network of tactical connections
– Iraqi universities given equipment by Iran.
– Assistance on humanitarian projects.
– Iranian-made weapons have been found in
Najaf.
• Quds (Qods), special forces component of
the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps
are in Iraq.
– Officer shot in Baghdad in April
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1981
1981 Osirik
Osirik Attack
Attack
F-15
F-15 Cap
Cap
Israeli Profile
100
100 feet
feet // 390
390 KTAS
KTAS
Lo-Hi-Lo
Lo-Hi-Lo Profile
Profile
F-15
F-15 Cap
Cap
F-16’s
F-16’s
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F-15
F-15 Cap
Cap
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Iran
Israeli Air Attack Options
Tehran
Baghdad
•
•
•
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Turkey
Iraq
Saudi Arabia (‘81 route)
21
Nuclear Related Facilities
Tehran
Tehran
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Judgments
• The regime in Iran is confident and strong. It is unlikely that
any internal process will lead to regime change.
• Iran is deeply and broadly involved in Iraq.
• Nuclear Program:
•• Iran’s
Iran’s nuclear
nuclear program
program is
is probably
probably one
one of
of the
the leadership’s
leadership’s
most
most important
important priorities.
priorities.
•• The
The Intelligence
Intelligence Community
Community consensus
consensus assessment
assessment is
is that
that
Iran
Iran could
could have
have aa nuclear
nuclear weapon
weapon in
in three
three years.
years.
•• Iran
Iran already
already has
has aa nuclear
nuclear weapon
weapon delivery
delivery capability.
capability.
• The US is probably a major target of Israeli threats of
preemption.
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Agenda
• Opening Remarks
• Threat Assessment
• Planning Military Options (OSD, Commander
CENTCOM - 90 minutes)
•
•
Strategic Communications Plan (NSC)
Summary (NSC)
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CENTCOM Planning Objectives
Provide the President with a set of military
options to deal with Iran.
1. To punish Iran for its involvement in Iraq and
support of terrorism. (Ready to Execute)
2. To set back its nuclear program significantly.
(Ready to Execute in 90 Days)
3. To change the regime in Tehran. (Ready to
Execute in 6 Months)
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To punish Iran for its involvement in Iraq and
support of terrorism.
Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (Pasdaran)
1st
1st IRGC
IRGC Armored
Armored Division
Division
Tehran
Tehran
1st
1st IRGC
IRGC Infantry
Infantry Division
Division
Esfahan
Esfahan
1st
1st IRGC
IRGC Engineering
Engineering Division
Division
Drezfel
Drezfel
2ns
2ns IRGC
IRGC Armored
Armored Division
Division
Low Risk
Stealth (Global
Power) and Cruise
Missile Attacks
One Night Operation
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Khorramabad
Khorramabad
12nd
12nd IRGC
IRGC Infantry
Infantry Division
Division
26
To set back its nuclear program
significantly.
Low Risk
Stealth (Global Power)
Cruise Missile Attacks
Land and Sea Based
Aircraft
Special Operations
~5 Day Operation
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Preemption Target List: Working
Concept of Operations
9 125 targets associated with nuclear and
chemical and biological
storage/production facilities
9 10 nuclear R&D site targets
9 Missile delivery systems
9 Command and control
9 ~300 aim points
9 ~20 requiring penetrating weapons
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To change the regime in Tehran.
Moderate Risk
• Operational fires that would include the
traditional air operation.
• Unconventional warfare using Special
Operations Forces.
• Operational maneuver using ground
forces.
• Influence operations.
• Support of opposition groups inside Iran.
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Conceptual
Conceptual Options
Options
29
Lines of Operations
Special
Special Operations
Operations
Airmobile/Airborne
Airmobile/Airborne
Special
Special Operations
Operations
Tehran
Air
Air /Cruise
/Cruise Missile
Missile
Main
Main Effort
Effort
Influence
Influence Operations
Operations
Deception
Deception
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Conceptual
Conceptual Options
Options
30
Concept Evolution
(D-Day)A
(D-Day)A
Deployment
Deployment and
and Buildup
Buildup
Old
Old Concept
Concept
(Generated
(Generated Start)
Start)
1st
1st OIF
OIF Concept
Concept
(Running
(Running Start)
Start)
2nd
2nd OIF
OIF Concept
Concept
(Hybrid)
(Hybrid)
Iran
Iran
(Strategic
(Strategic Surprise)
Surprise)
Air
Air Operations
Operations
90
90 Days
Days
45
45 Days
Days
Deployment
Deployment
and
and Buildup
Buildup
Air
Air Operations
Operations
45
45 Days
Days
90
90 Days
Days
Deployment
Deployment
and
and
Air
Air Operations
Operations
Buildup
Buildup
30
30 Days
Days
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Ground
Ground Attack
Attack
14
14 Days
Days
Deployment
Deployment
and
and Buildup
Buildup
20
20 Days
Days
G
G
Ground
Ground Attack
Attack
Stability
Stability Operations
Operations
90
90 Days
Days
Ground
Ground Attack
Attack
Stability
Stability Operations
Operations
90
90 Days
Days
Stability
Stability Operations
Operations
90
90 Days
Days
Air
Air Operations
Operations
Ground
Ground Attack
Attack
Stability
Stability Operations
Operations
30
30 Days
Days
Conceptual
Conceptual Options
Options
31
Regime Change Operation ~30 Days
~~ Brigade
Brigade
Special
Special Operations
Operations
~~ 33 Divisions
Divisions
22 Heavy
Heavy
33 to
4
Separate
to 4 Separate Brigades
Brigades
Special
Special Operations
Operations
Special
Special Operations
Operations
From
From Afghanistan
Afghanistan
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32
Most Desirable Deployments Ports
Sea
Sea Ports
Ports of
of Debarkation
Debarkation
••THAAD
THAAD
Aerial
Aerial Port
Port of
of Debarkation
Debarkation
••THAAD
THAAD
Aerial
Aerial Port
Port of
of Debarkation
Debarkation
••THAAD
THAAD
Aerial
Aerial Port
Port of
of Debarkation
Debarkation
Sea/Aerial
Sea/Aerial Port
Port of
of Debarkation
Debarkation
Sea/Aerial
Sea/Aerial Port
Port of
of Debarkation
Debarkation
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Conceptual Options
Options
33
Theater High Altitude Area Defense
Can defend a large number of
assets, destroying missiles in
the midcourse phase.
THAAD
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34
Heavier Option
Tehran
Tehran
Baghdad
Baghdad
Southern
Southern Axis
Axis Added
Added
MEF
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Conceptual Options
Options
35
Georgia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
Turkey
Turkey
Syria
Syria
Iran
Iran
Air
Air Bridge
Bridge
Main Supply
Route
Rail line
Saudi
Saudi Arabia
Arabia
Oman
Oman
Air Bases
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Conceptual Options
Options
Supply
Lines
36
Battle for Tehran ~D+15
Inside Out
~G+14
Special
Special Operations
Operations
CIA
CIA Action
Action Teams
Teams
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Conceptual Options
Options
37
Dealing with the WMD
•• Plan
Plan WMD
WMD Exploitation,
Exploitation, Disposition,
Disposition,
and
Monitoring
and
Redirection
and Monitoring and Redirection
activities.
activities.
•• Position
Position WMD
WMD elimination
elimination forces
forces and
and
capabilities.
capabilities.
•• Locate
Locate and
and identify
identify WMD.
WMD.
•• Secure
Secure located
located or
or suspected
suspected WMD
WMD
sites.
sites.
•• Conduct
Conduct WMD
WMD exploitation.
exploitation.
•• Establish/maintain
Establish/maintain sensors
sensors around
around
sites.
sites.
•• Conduct
Conduct decontamination.
decontamination.
•• Conduct
Conduct evacuation
evacuation of
of downwind
downwind
areas.
areas.
Compress
Compress
•• Inventory/categorize
Inventory/categorize contents
contents of
of
sites;
document
scope
of
program.
sites; document scope of program.
•• Collect/analyze
Collect/analyze forensics
forensics evidence.
evidence.
•• Destroy,
Destroy, dismantle,
dismantle, render
render safe,
safe,
remove,
transfer,
or
verifiably
remove, transfer, or verifiably dispose
dispose
of
of WMD.
WMD.
•• Prevent/reduce
Prevent/reduce the
the chance
chance for
for misuse
misuse
of
of sensitive
sensitive materiel.
materiel.
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Conceptual Options
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Ideal Conditions for “Strategic
Surprise”
• Pre-positioning
And Infrastructure
Projects
• Unit Rotation
In Iraq
•• Appearance
Appearance of
of
Popular
Popular Uprising
Uprising
In
In Iran
Iran
Iran
Iran
(Strategic
(Strategic Surprise)
Surprise)
Deployment
Deployment
and
and Buildup
Buildup
20
20 Days
Days
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Air
Air Operations
Operations
Ground
Ground Attack
Attack
30
30 Days
Days
Conceptual
Conceptual Options
Options
39
The Problem: Azerbaijan Airlift Entry Points
Dollyar
Dollyar
11 C-17
C-17
or
or
22 C-130s
C-130s
Gyandzha
Gyandzha
22 C-17s
C-17s
or
or
44 C-130s
C-130s
Yevlakh
Yevlakh
22 C-130s
C-130s
Sumgait
Sumgait
22 C-17s
C-17s
or
or
44 C-130s
C-130s
4
4 4
4
44
4
4
Kyurdamir
Kyurdamir
22 C-17s
C-17s
or
or
44 C-130s
C-130s
4
Nakhichevan
Nakhichevan
11 C-17
C-17
or
or
22 C-130s
C-130s
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Kara
Kara Chala
Chala
22 C-17s
C-17s
or
or
44 C-130s
C-130s
4
Baku-Bina
Baku-Bina
33 C-17s
C-17s
or
or
22 C-5s
C-5s
or
or
66 C-130s
C-130s
Baku-Kala
Baku-Kala
22 C-17s
C-17s
or
or
44 C-130s
C-130s
Lankaran
Lankaran
22 C-130s
C-130s
40
Managing Strategic Risks
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MMi
inne
ess
M
Miin
nees
s
Potential:
Restriction of the
Strait
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less
sile
issi
Mis
An
ip M
Ship
ti-Sh
Anti-
less
sile
issi
Mis
An
ip M
Ship
ti-Sh
Anti-
42
Oil Prices
• Some energy economists
estimate a “fear premium”
of $10 to $15 per barrel.
45-46
45-46
• If we can reduce the fear
component, we can have a
greater impact on oil
prices than a few million
additional barrels per day
from OPEC.
But
But this
this is
is aa problem
problem for
for others
others in
in the
the USG…
USG…
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RUSSIA
RUSSIA
Longer Range Objectives
in Azerbaijan and Georgia
Novorossisk
Black
Sea
Supsa
Caspian
Sea
GEORGIA
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
AZERBAIJAN
Baku
TURKEY
TURKEY
IRAN
IRAN
Pipeline
Pipeline Size
Size
Ceyhan
The
Game
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44
Managing Strategic Risks
• The region is like a mobile. Once an element
is set in motion, it is impossible to say where
the whole thing will come to rest.
• An attack on Iran could destabilize
governments in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and
Egypt.
• Success will have more supporters than
failure.
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Decision: Iran Preemption
Planning
• SECDEF is authorized to begin special
operations inside Iran for the purpose of
developing intelligence to support a
preemptive attack against Iranian
nuclear and defense facilities.
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Decision: Iran Planning
Objectives
• SECDEF is to develop a campaign plan within
the next six months.
• The purpose is to provide the President the
military options to deal with Iran
• Working objectives of the plan should be:
– Cripple the Revolutionary Guard
– Significantly degrade the capability of Iran to
produce weapons of mass destruction and
inventories of weapons of mass destruction.
– Change the regime.
– Minimize stability operations.
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Estimated Program Costs
• Approximately 30 projects
• Estimated costs: $700 million
– Some would come from from the Supplemental for
the war on terrorism, Iraq and Afghanistan.
– Some would come from other appropriations.
– No official notification to the Congress at this
point in order to maintain security.
• Supplemental will be required if we execute,
but we do not want to make an estimate at
this time.
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Decision: Iran Planning
Objectives
• SECDEF, in coordination with the Secretary
of State, and in consultation with the
Government of Iraq:
– Is authorized to begin building levels of supplies
in Iraq that can be used “to support the global war
on terrorism.”
– Is authorized to provide additional construction
inside Iraq that will provide air bases with the
capabilities to ensure territorial integrity.
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Decision: Iran Planning
Objectives
• SECDEF, in coordination with the Secretary
of State, is authorized to begin discussions
with Azerbaijan:
– To preposition supplies in Azerbaijan that would
support the global war on terrorism.
– To work toward expansion of air bases in
Azerbaijan to increase options for US forces in
support of the global war on terrorism.
– To offer limited US assistance to resolve the
issues of Nagorno-Karabakh
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Decision: Iran Planning
Objectives
• SECDEF, in coordination with the Secretary
of State, is authorized to begin discussions
with Georgia:
– To preposition supplies in Georgia that would
support the global war on terrorism.
– To work toward expansion of air bases in Georgia
to increase options for US forces in support of the
global war on terrorism.
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Decision: Iran Planning
Objectives for SECDEF
• Authorized to begin special operations inside Iran
• In coordination with the Secretary of State, is
authorized to begin discussions with Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Iraq.
• Is to develop a campaign plan within the next six
months.
– The purpose is to provide the President the military options
to deal with Iran
– Working objectives of the plan should be:
••
••
Cripple
Cripple the
the Revolutionary
Revolutionary Guard
Guard
Significantly
Significantly degrade
degrade the
the capability
capability of
of Iran
Iran to
to produce
produce weapons
weapons
of
of mass
mass destruction
destruction and
and inventories
inventories of
of weapons
weapons of
of mass
mass
destruction.
destruction.
•• Change
Change the
the regime.
regime.
•• Minimize
Minimize stability
stability operations.
operations.
The
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Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
52
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
Opening Remarks
Threat Assessment
Planning Military Options
Strategic Communications Plan (NSC- 45 minutes)
Summary (NSC - 5 minutes)
The
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Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
53
Lessons of
OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM
• Someone (White House) must be in charge of the
message.
– Must be coordinated from tactical to strategic level.
– Overt and covert efforts must be coordinated.
••
••
••
Public
Public affairs
affairs
Public
Public diplomacy
diplomacy
Information
Information operations
operations
– Must be planned with the kind of attention given to military
operations.
• Audiences
–
–
–
–
–
US Public
People in Iran
Middle East
Europe
Rest of the world
The
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Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
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Strategic Communications: Focus
• Theme: The United States must take the offense
against terrorist; we can’t wait to be attacked.
• And:
– Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction.
– Iran is disregarding its treaty obligations.
– Iran is actively involved in terrorism.
– Iran is trying to destroy democracy in Iraq.
– Iran is a threat to the region.
– The majority of the people in Iran want to be free
of the oppressive rule there.
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
55
Issue: Support in the United States
U.S. Right or Wrong Going to War in Iraq?
100%
100%
Time
Time Magazine,
Magazine, May
May 24,
24, 2004
2004
Right
50%
50%
Wrong
Wrong
60%
60% 18
18 to
to 30
30 year
year olds
olds Newsweek,
Newsweek, July
July 77
54%
54% CNN/USA
CNN/USA Today,
Today, June
June 24th
24th
48% 52%
ABC/Washington Post,
Post, June
June 21st
21st
52% ABC/Washington
46%
46%
0%
0%
2003
2003
2004
2004
• Pew Research poll for June 3-13 shows a reduction
in those following Iraq closes from April June (54% to
39%)
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
56
Strategic Communications Plan
Phases
• Methodology: Stay Ahead of the Story
–– Strategically,
Strategically, criticism
criticism of
of Iran
Iran will
will come
come faster
faster than
than argument
argument
can
can be
be made
made against
against the
the points.
points.
–– Tactically,
Tactically, we’ll
we’ll continue
continue to
to dominate
dominate the
the 24-hour
24-hour cycle
cycle but
but
work
work to
to reduce
reduce perspective
perspective by
by others
others this
this time.
time.
• Phases
–– Building
Building the
the Base
Base
•• Sub-theme:
Sub-theme: Iran
Iran is
is bad,
bad, but
but diplomacy
diplomacy is
is the
the best
best option
option for
for
dealing
dealing with
with the
the problem.
problem.
–– Expanding
Expanding Support
Support at
at Home
Home and
and Overseas
Overseas
•• Sub-theme:
Sub-theme: (1)
(1) Diplomacy
Diplomacy is
is failing.
failing. (2)
(2) This
This is
is not
not just
just aa problem
problem
for
for the
the United
United States,
States,
–– The
The Time
Time Has
Has Come
Come
•• Sub-theme:
Sub-theme: Diplomacy
Diplomacy has
has failed;
failed; we
we have
have no
no choice.
choice.
• Timing: Communications plan and the military plan have to
be synchronized.
The
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Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
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Coverage of Iraq
~~ 400,000+
400,000+ During
During the
the War
War
270,000
~300,000
~300,000 During
During the
the Jan-June
Jan-June
Daily
Daily No.
No. of
of Press
Press Items
Items Mentioning
Mentioning “Iraq”
“Iraq”
250,000
230,000
210,000
190,000
170,000
150,000
130,000
110,000
90,000
July
July
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
Now
Now
58
Coverage of Iraq
Small
Small sensitivity
sensitivity to
to events
events
300,000
Kerry
Kerry at
at the
the Convention
Convention
250,000
66 GI’s
GI’s Killed
Killed
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
7/24/04
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
7/31/04
59
Coverage of Terrorism and Iran
Now
Now
45000
• Terrorism message
has been difficult to
maintain.
• Iran has not reached
mass coverage yet.
40000
35000
30000
25000
Iran
Iran
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
July
July
Terrorism
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
60
appeasement
Issue: Alternatives Positions
Must be Discredited
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
61
Phase 1: Iran Strategic
Communications Plan
• White House Office of Global Communications:
–
–
–
–
Daily Global Message
White Papers on Iran
Coordination with think tanks
Interviews with foreign policy correspondents of the major
outlets
– Congressional leaders
• Secretaries and Deputies of State and Defense:
–
–
–
Military personnel
Influential foreign policy organizations
Overseas
••
••
Major
Major foreign
foreign policy
policy organizations
organizations
Press
Press
– NATO
– G-8
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
62
Phase 1: Iran Strategic
Communications Plan
• CENTCOM message in theater to defense officials.
– Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction.
– Iran is disregarding its treaty obligations.
– Iran is actively involved in terrorism.
– Iran is trying to destroy democracy in Iraq.
– Iran is a threat to the region.
• I/O Message to the Iranian military: “You are
exposed. Lethal force can come at you from any
direction at any time.”
• Covert Message: “The United States cannot tolerate
Iraq with nuclear weapons. Iraq’s involvement in Iran
must stop.”
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
63
Decision: Strategic
Communications
• White House Office of Global
Communications will begin Phase 1 of the
Iran Strategic Communications Plan
• NSC will coordinate the development of the
details of Phases 2 & 3.
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
64
Nuclear Related Facilities
Tehran
Tehran
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
65
Back Up
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
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Game
66
Support for Israel
Launch
Launch Vehicle
Vehicle
• Ofek-5
– Launched, May 2002
– High resolution imagery
• Ofek-6
– Launch failed, 6 September 2004
– “Remote sensing”
• An Israeli attack may require
some support.
– But it can be done quietly.
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
67
International Pressure
The
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Atlantic Monthly
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68
Organizing for a Major Campaign
UK
UK
CENTCOM
CENTCOM
Director
Director of
of Communications
Communications
and
and Strategy
Strategy
Joint
Joint Staff
Staff
Deputy
Director
Deputy Director for
for
Information
Information Operqations
Operqations
VTC to UK I/O Office
Global
Global Information
Information Center
Center
Consulting
Consulting Communications
Communications
Groups
Groups
(White
(White House)
House)
Global
Global Message
Message
To:
To: Embassies,
Embassies, USG
USG Offices
Offices
E-mail
E-mail
0930
0930 Morning
Morning Telecon
Telecon
State
State Public
Public Affairs
Affairs
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
ASD
ASD for
for Public
Public Affairs
Affairs
69
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
70
The Pressure from Outside
The
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71
Strategic Communications
The
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72
The Pressure from Outside
The
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73
Decision Making
• Informal, chaotic, complex and based upon consensus…
Supreme
Supreme National
National
Security
Security Council
Council
President
Supreme
Leader
Assembly
Assembly
Of
Of Experts
Experts
Guardian
Guardian
Council
Council
Cabinet
Kharrazi
Kharrazi
Expediency
Expediency
Council
Council
Khatami
Khatami
Rafsanjani
Rafsanjani
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
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74
Shahab-3
11 August - Iranian Defense Ministry
announced a field test of the latest
version of this medium-range ballistic
missile.
• Based upon the North Korean
Nodong-1
• Modified with Russian technology
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
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75
The Threat in Iraq
…attacks
…attacks against
against the
the coalition
coalition
Daily
August
August 87/day
87/day
Significant Acts
70
60
Fallujah
and al-Sadr
Sedition
Operation Iron
Hammer
A nnounced
50
Total SIGACTS
Moving Average
Transition to
Interim
Government
40
A nniversary
of Invasion
30
20
Interim
Government
A nnounced
10
The
The Atlantic
Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
War Game
Game
4
4
00
24
/2
/2
7/
10
7/
6/
26
/2
/2
00
00
4
4
00
4
12
6/
29
5/
15
/2
/2
00
00
4
04
20
5/
1/
5/
/2
00
4
04
17
3/
20
4/
Da te
4/
20
/2
00
4
04
20
3/
6/
3/
2/
21
/2
00
4
04
20
4
7/
00
2/
/2
24
1/
1/
10
/2
00
4
03
/2
0
03
/2
7
12
/1
3
12
/2
9
/2
0
/2
0
03
03
/2
0
11
03
/1
5
20
11
/1
/
11
10
/1
8
/2
0
03
0
76
…against
…against the
the pipelines
pipelines
Attacks
Attacks or
or Attempts
Attempts
January
January -- 22
February
February -- 22
March
March -- 66
April
April -- 44
May
May -- 77
June
June -- 12
12
July
July -- 16
16
..
..
..
December
December -- 18
18
The
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Atlantic Monthly
Monthly War
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77
Afghan Strategy
October
October -- Poppy
Poppy Strategy
Strategy
initiated
initiated
The
The Atlantic
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War Game
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78
We
We are
are here.
here.
Initial
Initial Policy
Policy
Guidance
Guidance
Decision Flow
Lead
Lead Agency
Agency
Designated
Designated
Interagency
Interagency
WMD
WMD
Elimination
Elimination TF
TF
Formed
Formed
Working
Working Groups
Groups
and
and Committees
Committees
Develop
Develop
Policy
Policy
Options
Options
Vet
Vet Options
Options
with
with Agencies
Agencies
and
and Combatant
Combatant
Command
Command
Update
Update
and
and
Feedback
Feedback
Fusion/
Fusion/
Deconfliction
Deconfliction
with
with Other
Other
USG
USG Policies
Policies
Develop
Develop Draft
Draft
Policies
Policies
Execute
Execute WMD
WMD
Elimination
Elimination
Operations
Operations
Issue
Issue
Guidance
Guidance and
and
Directives
Directives
Presidential
Presidential
Decision
Decision
The
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79
Players in USG Strategic
Communication
DOD
DOD Information
Information
Operations
Operations
USD
USD (P)
(P)
JS
JS DDIO
DDIO
Public
Public Affairs/
Affairs/
Diplomacy
Diplomacy
ASD(PA)
ASD(PA)
USD
USD (I)
(I)
ASD(SO
-LIC)
ASD(SO-LIC)
Combatant
Combatant
Commands
Commands
NSC
NSC CT
CT
Info
Info Strategy
Strategy
PCC
PCC
USD(P)
USD(P)
White
White House
House Office
Office of
of
Global
Global Communications
Communications
State
State Department
Department
NSC/DOS
NSC/DOS
Strat
Strat Comms
Comms
PCC
PCC
Other
Other Government
Government
Information
Information Activities
Activities
CIA
CIA
Treasury
Treasury
USAID
USAID
PCC = Policy Coordination
Committee
NSC
NSC
Justice
Justice
Source:
aff, 22 July
Mauer
St
Source: Capt.
Capt. Gerald
Gerald Mauer,
Mauer,, Assistant
Assistant Deputy
Deputy Director
Director for
for Information
Information Operations,
Operations, Joint
Joint Staff,
Staff,
July 03
03
The
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80
Issue: Support in the United States
Other Times, Other War
100%
100%
Jan
Jan 1973
1973
June
June 21,
21, 2004
2004
60%
60%
54%
54%
50%
50%
June
June 1999
1999
July
July 1991
1991
Jan
Jan 1953
1953
43%
43%
21%
21%
16%
16%
0%
0%
Korea
Korea
••
Vietnam
Vietnam
Gulf
Gulf II
Yugoslavia
Yugoslavia
Gulf
Gulf IIII
Do
Do you
you think
think it
it was
was aa mistake
mistake send
send troops
troops to…?
to…?
The
The Atlantic
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81