Proceedings of MARTEC 2010 The International Conference on Marine Technology 11-12 December 2010, BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh POTENTIALS, PRIORITIES AND PROSPECTS OF SHIPBUILDING IN BANGLADESH Dr Abdullahel Bari, FRINA Chairman Ananda Group 10/1, 9th floor, City Heart 67, Naya Paltan Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh Email: ananda@anandagroup.biz PREFACE Bangladesh has been since 2005 building and exporting ships to owners from Denmark, Mozambique, Germany, The Netherlands and Finland. Germanischer Lloyd has declared in September 2008 Bangladesh as a shipbuilding nation of international standards. Bangladesh is traditionally a sea fairing nation and has a rich heritage of timber shipbuilding of many hundred years. Ibne Batuta traveled back in 14th century in a timber ship built in Sonargoan, Bangladesh. Caesar Fredrick, the European traveler, reported Chittagong as one of the best places for building timber commercial vessels in 15th century. Sultan of Turkey had his fleet built from Bangladesh in 17th century. Bangladesh built timber warships fought in Trafalgar in 1805. Bangladesh is presently contributing to the shipbuilding industries globally through its exported workforce. These facts do not speak only of a heritage but of an inbuilt ability of shipbuilding of people of this region which had been for ages dependent on waters. Bangladesh could not keep pace with the evolvement of new technologies such as, use of man made materials replacing natural building material timbers and fuel burned power pushing away wind power, i.e. sails. Bangladesh did not have well developed fleet for seaborne commerce nor adequate inland or coastal carriers at her independence in 1971. There was nearly no serious shipbuilding in steel in Bangladesh then. However only over a period of 40 years after independence, Bangladesh has developed a large fleet of about 20,000 vessels comprised of inland & coastal commercial vessels, and various types of working and fishing craft. There are indigenous shipyards, more than 200 in numbers (Fig.-1) building and repairing these vessels and in turn have provided a strong prepared base for building ships of international standards. Shipbuilding industry, to grow, needs among others, demand for shipbuilding, skilled low cost workforce, elevated engineering skills, deep draft basins with access to the sea, a reasonable infrastructure, reasonably good weather, long term government policy support, an attractive investment climate, allied forward & backward linkage industries, a strong financial system, access to the shipping world and courageous entrepreneurs. This presentation will establish that most of these Bangladesh already has and for a few remaining, the environment is conducive for accelerated availability or a solution. National and international issues and factors which may apparently not encourage shipbuilding in Bangladesh will be addressed to, impacts of them evaluated and measures towards finding a solution, if there is any, incorporated. 1. POTENTIALS 1.1 Workforce Shipbuilding, an ancient assembling industry producing tailored products, accordingly having the largest human input per unit of produce, is always moving to countries with lower wages of required skills. Bangladesh has comparatively a lower cost of human inputs and can offer the best combination of cost, quality and productivity with its fast growing young workforce. Table-1: Comparison of labour costs Bdesh 0.5 India 1.0 China 1.5 Singapore 3.0 S.Korea 6.0 xiii Japan 12.0 Italy 13.0 France 13.0 Norway 14.0 Finland 15.0 Proceedinggs of MARTEC 20010 Figu ure 1: Maximum m Available waater depths 1.2 Produ uctivity 1.4 Quallity A compparison of prodductivity (Table-2) shows thaat while Chinna may be well w ahead of India in totaal shipbuildinng, its producttivity is almost the same aas India. Pro oductivity of Bangladesh workforce iis expected very v similar to that t of India. Quick k learning ability of the worrkforce is a keey element to t help Banglaadesh move innto internationnal shipbuildiing faster. Tim me required foor an individuual artisan off a category to move to the hiigher level, succh w has beeen as, a semii-skilled weldeer to a skilled welder, found onn an average to be 3 mon nths. Indigenouus shipyards, dockyards annd workshops as a a whole in its i present sttatus is large inn numbers and d proving a veery large poool of practicaally experienced shipbuildinng workforcee such as, sshipwrights, gas g cutters annd welders. These artisans may be quiickly trained to undertakee building shhips following classificatioon societies’ standards annd rules. Thee workforce is conversan nt with Engllish and it is possible to communicate in Engliish nearly in n all levels. In w are veryy diligent. general workers 1.3 Lower Effective Cost C Table-33 speaks for th he strength off Bangladesh too grow as a shipbuilding nation in term ms of effectivve cost of worrkforce. A draw wn comparisonn of the cost annd productivityy of a few shipbuilding s coountries vis-à-v vis Bangladeshh shows Indiia the nearest competitor is 2.5 2 times awayy and Koreaa, 4 times cosstlier in termss of workforce alone. Taable-2: Compaarison of produuctivity Country Japan (20004) Korea (20 004) China (20004) India (200 06) Bangladeesh Compleetion M DWT Employees E 23.2 23.0 8.8 0.6 80,000 71,800 158,000 12,000 xiv Producctivity DWT Perrson/year 290 320 56 50 40 Proceedings of MARTEC 2010 Table-3: Cost-effectiveness Country Weighted labour rate Weighted productivity Weighted average output cost Bangladesh 0.5 1.0 0.50 India 1.5 1.2 1.25 China 1.5 1.4 1.07 Korea 6.0 3.0 2.00 Singapore 4.0 2.0 2.00 Germany 15.0 5.0 3.00 on a reasonably attained even keel of 4 m may be built and taken to the sea from any place in between the sea and the capital, Dhaka. Multipurpose cargo, oil tankers and container vessels having light weight of say, 7000/8000 tons i.e. DWT of 20000 – 25000 tons may be built for export in shipyards to be established on the river frontage shown in Fig.-1. There is a seasonal variation of water depths in rivers due to monsoon and flood as shown in Fig-1. A variation of 5.0m is expected in the worst case only due to flood. There is no bridge and the electricity cable is at a height of 150m above the highest water level. Air draft is thus unrestricted. 1.5 Higher Level Skills There are quite a many engineering universities under Public and Private sector producing graduates of various disciplines, such as, engineering, industrial production, metallurgy, management, finance & marketing. Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), one of them, has been producing Naval Architect and Marine Engineers since 1974. Chittagong Marine Academy has been producing entrant marine engineers and captains. Quite a few universities and institutions are producing graduates in the field of management, finance and marketing. Indeed Bangladesh has a prestigious position worldwide for its young white colour workforce. 2.2 Meghna basin Keeping in view the market segment which turns to be the most suitable for Bangladesh at least in the beginning, Meghna basin may be the best place to start with. Meghna basin is near to the capital connected to the seaports and the capital by highways. It has blessings of calm weather and sweet water. Being inland it offers an opportunity of using slipways at a reasonably lower investment. Tidal variation is 400mm at Meghnaghat. Meghnaghat is only 230 Kms from the sea and therefore needs only a journey of 10/12 hours for a new built vessel to go to the sea for tests & trials. 1.6 Expatriates Since 1974, more than 50% of BUET produced graduate naval architects and marine engineers have been working abroad and about 60% of them in shipyards. Ex-mariners can be great contributors in the future shipbuilding industries of Bangladesh. In Singapore, more than 30% engineers and workers are from Bangladesh in shipbuilding and ship repair. In Dubai and in shipyards in the Persian Gulf, Bangladeshi workers represent more than 20% of the total workforce. Shipbuilding engineers and workers from Bangladesh are engaged in countries like USA, Australia and Canada and numbers are increasing. Many of them on return may join the shipbuilding sector and inject their experience and add new exposure to accelerate faster healthy growth of shipbuilding in the country. 2.3 Mongla basin Mongla basin with available water depth of minimum 8.0 m may be considered one of the best places for shipyards and dry-docks for building and repair of ships of reasonable sizes. The basin enjoys a tide water rise of more than 3.0m. The basin is very near to the Mongla port and not far from the city and outside the cyclone zone. 2. GEOPHYSICAL CONDITIONS 2.1 Deep draft basins 2.4 Karnofuli basin Excluding sand bars and shoals here and there, rivers are very deep in Bangladesh. Water frontage which may be considered suitable for organized planned shipyards is shown in Fig.-1. Available water depth maintained guaranteed up to Dhaka port is 3.66m. However commercial vessels navigate with 4.25m loaded draft. Thus vessels having a light draft The Karnofuli River has been unfortunately handicapped by bridges of low height. Beyond the bridge, the Karnofuli River up to the sea may be kept outside of any planned shipbuilding activities because other better important national cause may use, such as, for port facilities etc. xv Proceedings of MARTEC 2010 2.5 Long coast line & river falls 3.5 Backward linkage industries The long coast line and mouths of rivers falling to the sea offer excellent places for development of shipyards and shipbuilding zones. The topography of rivers and river banks bestow special advantages for building small and medium size ships. Shankoo basin and Meghna fall are good examples. Bangladesh is now exporting a few items meeting quality requirements, which may be used in shipbuilding. Of them, furniture, pipes, iron chains, wire and cables, light fittings, glass sheets, synthetic ropes are mentionable. The total export earnings from these items was US$ 32.04 million in 2008-2009. Smaller industries such as for (a) ship outfitting i.e. manufacture of doors, windows, port holes, bollards, fairleads, stairs, ladders & gangways, ventilation grills and mouths, container fittings, cathodes, manholes covers, bell mouths & suction strainers, (b) safety accessories and signs i.e. life jackets, buoys & boats with davits, survival suits, rescue nets & baskets, maritime signs, symbols & posters, (c) anchor & anchor cables, (d) shafts, propellers & stern tubes, (e) switch gears, panels etc. may be quickly developed in Bangladesh. Indeed the size of investments required for these industries suit most to the present state of industrialization in Bangladesh. When these industries develop, the value addition may exceed 55% of the export value of a ship. These industries being known through feeding national yards for their quality may export to shipyards around the globe. The export earnings and employment generations of these industries then may even equate those of shipbuilding itself. 2.6 Weather conditions Apart from the heavy long monsoon and therefore high humidity and rains, Bangladesh has a very good weather allowing 14 working hours a day for most of the year. Temperature is very reasonable and cold protection is hardly needed. 3. OTHER FACTORS 3.1 Infrastructures Infrastructures required for shipbuilding industry to grow are not superhighways but super fast internet system which Bangladesh has. Bangladesh offers excellent telephone communications. Captive power supply is the norm of the day and a large shipyard may easily have its own power generation. Bangladesh has reasonably developed gas transmission network and electricity distribution system. 3.2 Training institutions There are vocational training institutions financed and managed by the government with an intake capacity of some 35512 annually producing skilled manpower, a portion of which may flow to shipbuilding industries. In addition, there are institutions under NGOs and the private sector which impart trainings for manpower export. On demand, private sector training institutions may feed shipbuilding industries. Any shipyard may have license to initiate its own training programme and get trained personnel certified of a particular skill in various fields of artisans. 3.6 Access to the shipping world Bangladesh built ships enjoy duty free market access. Bangladesh has earned confidence of shipping world of the quality of her built ships. It is known to shipping world through its sea farers, marine engineers and captains and to the shipbuilding through its work force and engineers working in shipyards around the globe. It is also well known to the shipping world through its ship breaking industry. Identifications of potentials of a deep sea port reflect the significance of its important geophysical maritime location. 3.3 Linkage industries 3.7 Courageous entrepreneurs Forward and backward linkage industries both of services and hardware are essential for shipbuilding. SME, small and medium enterprises, is a slogan in Bangladesh. The Government, development partners and financial institutions are jointly and individually working to strengthen the sector. Courageous entrepreneurs have created a reasonably strong industrial base in just over three decades from a purely agrarian economy of Bangladesh which suffered extreme commercial exploitations and social & technological oppression including blockade to the outside world in the age of colonialism and neo colonialism. These entrepreneurs will be playing a commendable role in the development of modern shipbuilding industries. The growth will take place in the private sector, an advantage compared to many competing countries. 3.4 Forward linkage industries Forward linkage industries such as design firms, model testing basins may quickly be established in Bangladesh. For shipbuilding consumables, such as welding materials & gases already there are a few plants and new plants may quite easily be set. xvi Proceedinggs of MARTEC 20010 3.8 Statuttory quality control Indian Register off Ships (IRS S) and Chinna Societty, both governmennt Classification organizatioons, discharge the function likke internationaal classificatiion society in shipbuilding. s T These countriees are develooping substantiially and bothh are becomingg major playyers in internattional shipbuild ding arena. Foor Bangladesh h to enter intto internationaal shipbuildingg, rigid and appropriate control c shall be b ensured onn shipbuildinng industry, ship desiggn and shipp constructioon. Bangladeesh is plannning to havve Bangladesh h Register of Ships S (BRS). 4. WOR RLD SHIPB BUILDING Shipbu uilding demandd is a functioon of shippingg activities and a in turn, of seaborne comm merce, nationaal waterbornee trades, any water w borne activities, such ass, fishing, ex xploration, extrraction and reseervations, coasst guarding and a naval aspirrations. Shipbu uilding demandd creates shippbuilding capaacity. In war-shaaken world, Jap pan took shipbuuilding in 19522 as its majoor investment sector s and became one of thhe leading ecoonomies in 19 970 in 20 yearrs. South Koreea took shipb building as a thrust sector in 1980 whenn worldwidee recession occcurred and beccame the leadeer in 2000, also in 20 years.. China too ok shipbuildingg in Asian Finnancial Crisis in 1990 seriously and is a major econom mic power todaay in about 20 years. IIndia started providing 300% d is earning US S$ incentivess to shipbuildinng in 1999 and 5.00 billion now annuaally. Bangladeesh has declareed shipbuildiing as a thrustt sector in 20009 and hopefullly by 2019 Bangladesh B wiill be a rich ecconomy buildinng & exportiing ships. 4.1 Worlld shipbuildiing capacity Globaal shipbuilding capacity (Fig..-4) was only 75 7 MDWT against a a foreccasted demand of 196 MDW WT at the endd of 2006. Shhipbuilding faccilities had beeen faster deeveloped in nnewly emergeed shipbuildinng nations, such s as, in Chhina, Vietnam m and India annd sophisticaated large faciliities came up in i Korea. The supply equating deemand was 1200 MDWT at thhe 008. Forecastedd newbuilding demands of 1996 end of 20 MDWT could be meet adequately by created & planned facilities f by ennd of 2010. Fig.-5 F shows thhe global eco onomy enteringg recession at the end of 20007. The recession started pushing the world shippinng d so also the demand for f newbuildinng. demand down The demaand continued to fall and reaached a level of nearly 000 MDWT by tthe end of 20009. A few shipps ordered here h and theree, such as Iraan to Korea are a ignored. Quite Q a many shipyards speecially in Chinna fell and so ome planned shhipyards discontinued. F Fig.-2: New bu uilding Orders Korea K Fig.-4: Supplyy and demand world shippingg/shipbuildingg 4.2 Capa acity develop pment in Ban ngladesh F Fig.-3: New bu uilding orders China C The demand d in thee areas of serrvice & suppoort craft, suppply vessels, port servicingg craft, vesseels playing inn national waaters, fishing fleets f as well as smaller shhips and vesssels for short haul and feedder services has been consistent. c Thhe replacemeent requiremeent of a larrge number of o small shipps operating in European waters will crreate a growinng demand. Enforcement E oof use of doublle skin tankers,, a strong deesire of fuel eefficient ships and restrictionns including emission lim mits to hold goood environmeent and usuall need of replaacement will keep k the demannd growing. xvii Proceedinggs of MARTEC 20010 These vessels are of great importance i too h export shipbbuilding, not only o because oof Bangladesh their sizes that Bangladeshi yardss may handlle b of thhe reasonablyy satisfactorilyy but also because higher reqquired human input in thesee categories oof craft. Hum man input is our strength h and many a countries, these days, do not like to get in thhe constructioon & supply of these vessels. Europeann leftover bu uilders are grradually beingg pushed awayy from the supply chain of these smalll vessels/craft ft. Korea andd even Chinaa are losing interest i in thiis section of market. An oppportunity is thhus on the sighht f Bangladeshh. to evolve for A shipp built in Banngladesh will be about 15% % cheaper annd that if a siingle ship is in i demand andd Bangladesh h has the techhnical know-hoow and facilityy to build the order shall come to Banglaadesh. It shouldd be an interrnational intereest to develop Bangladesh B as a shipbuildinng nation for a greater beneffit to the worldd shipping in terms off supply of vessels at a comparativvely lower costt. May this be one o of the mosst crucial issuues in view of the t recession. Bangladesh h may withoutt much difficuulty become thhe 4th largest ship s exporter and a some day, not n far off, mayy supersede Korea. K Compaared to China, a ship built in Bangladesh B will be 12.5% cheaper. Two shhipyards are buuilding ships for export, onne of them haas been operaating now for more than twoo decades annd the other has been develooped only oveer last two years. Three other yardds are eitheer ng their existinng facilities andd or offing new w modernizin and plann ning to start buuilding ships in i less than tw wo years. In next two yearrs i.e. by the end of 2012, at b building shipps least 5 shipyards in Banngladesh will be b for exporrt and by 20133 at least 10 shhipyards will be exportingg ships built by them. 5. WEA AKNESSES S TO BE OV VERCOME E Bangladesh is a very new entrant in thhe a weaknessses international shipbuildding. There are me by appropriaate steps to meeet which muust be overcom challenges and be ccompetitive. A glimpse of weaknesses is pictured bbelow: Scarcity of capittal H High financing cost B Backwardness in technology In nadequate electtric supply W Weak diplomacyy In nadequate mannagement pool for expandinng shhipbuilding inddustries L Lack of basic ddesign abilities L Longer lead tim me in material mobilization m L Lack of compreehensive skill development in vaarious shipbuillding trades N policy bodyy for advising government on No o shhipbuilding Su ubsidies/suppoort in variouus shipbuildinng co ountries. Fig..- 5 : Change inn economic baackground Coost in Million US$ U T Table-4: Compaared building costs c S No. Sl. 1 2 3 4 5 Cosst item Maaterials, Machinnery & Equuipment Lab bour Oveerhead Fin nancing Misscellaneous Tottal xviii Chinna 4.255 Banglaadesh 4.550 1.755 0.500 1.000 0.500 8.000 1.000 0.220 1.10 0.220 7.000 Proceedings of MARTEC 2010 development. Bangladesh aims to attain middle income level and two digit annual growth rates by 2020. This is possible on the one hand by industrialization and on the other hand by increasing foreign currency earnings. Both ends may be met through a faster healthy growth of shipbuilding, which creates scope for employment and earns huge foreign currency through export as well as bless the economy with various spills over benefits. 6. GOVERNMENT POLICIES Although shipbuilding is a global industry and international bodies are monitoring various aspects of shipping and shipbuilding including quality etc., there is no global umbrella to create an even price platform for shipbuilders to compete. The governments, such as, Korea, China, Vietnam, India and other shipbuilding nations provide 20-30% of total ships prices as subsidies to shipyards in one form or another. The shipbuilding industry has its own distinctive features as compared to other industries. It is unique in a way that it sells first and construct later unlike other industries where one manufactures first and sells later. Further shipyards get orders only if they are credible i.e., deliver quality ships and on time and it can be credible only after successfully executing consistently under international competition. Further it has to be globally competitive against the best yards in the world. Unfortunately the shipyards in Bangladesh are facing exorbitantly high financing charges as compared to foreign yards. Unlike other manufacturing industries the product takes two years to be delivered and requires high cost finances over a long period. This weakens the competitiveness of Bangladeshi yards. However in general, government policy in Bangladesh is to encourage and attract foreign investments. Bangladesh has a quite well defined FDI (foreign Direct Investment) attracting policy. All benefit available for a national entrepreneur is equally available to foreign investors. Bangladesh is looking forward to having investment from abroad side by side to that of national private sector investments. Diversifications of exports and expansion of export basket is an integral part of the long term adopted industrial and economic policy. Bangladesh government is keen to support a fast healthy growth of shipbuilding industries. Shipbuilding has been declared as a “Thrust Sector”. Green channel port clearance system of imports of raw materials for export shipbuilding has been accorded. A 5% incentive has been provided. Bangladesh government is already keenly initiating various action plans to overcome the aforementioned weaknesses. To compete with other Asian shipbuilding giants in the sector, Govt. may allow Bangladesh ships exporters a subsidy to the tune of 20%. Subsidy will help to get a foothold in the international market. Bangladesh is willing to extend all necessary supports. 7.1 National shipping cost Bangladesh today is paying billions of dollars as freight for her sea borne commerce, less than 6% of which only is carried by Bangladeshi ships. Both import and export trades are growing nearly 8% annually but often under various undue pressures from foreign shipping companies. India, to its shipping, has been supporting local shipbuilding as well as shipping by financing 30% of ships’ prices by providing 30% cash incentives to local shipyards for building any ship longer than 80m. Only a proper development of shipbuilding sector may bestow the nation with shipping companies at reasonable costs. Such flagged ships will carry her commerce both ways and also create a platform for marine cadets and seamen training who in turn may be employed in other flagged ships to earn foreign currencies. Inland waterway and coastal shipping are playing very vital roles in the overall national development in Bangladesh by rendering transport services. 7.2 Training centers Shipyards are training grounds and impart through on job practice very high skills turning the society, on the one hand, technologically advanced and on the other hand enriching the manpower export of the country. Shipyard’s personnel such as electricians, pipe fitters, shipwrights, welders & cutters are highly valued in all industrial fields. Shipbuilding is subsidies in various countries including the developed ones taking into consideration, among others, this need. 7.3 Other benefits For her industrial growth, infrastructure development, exploration and extraction of mineral recourses, production & harvest of sea resources and for a strong navy Bangladesh needs her shipbuilding industry to grow. 8. PROSPECTS 7. PRIORITIES Shipbuilding may be defined to encompass the design & drawings, engineering, the new building, repair & rehabilitation of ships and various linkage industries producing any item that may go on board a ship in the process of building and repair. The Building ships for export is a priority to the business community, the government and financing institutions in Bangladesh. Over ages, shipbuilding has served as the stepping stone for national xix Proceedinggs of MARTEC 20010 prospects have h been guesstimated in money m terms foor a planned period of ten n years. A heuuristic approachh pplied. has been ap 8.3 Contrributions of lin nkage industrries 50 ind dustrial units ((Fig.-8) totalinng both forwaard and back kward links, have been conservativeely estimatedd. These industrries will feed the t new buildinng and ship repair industtries resulting in an increaase d earnings in thhe value adddition, i.e. increeasing retained country and a reducing leead time. Thesse industries will w earn foreeign currenciees by exportting to foreiggn shipyards as well and suuch earnings may m well exceeed US$ 250 million per yeear. An employyment of 10,0000 is envisag ged. 8.1 New bu uilding earnin ngs There will w be 10 shippyards exportinng ships by end of 2013. Considering C th he present trennd continued, a growth paattern has been shown in Fig.-6 whichh although has h no real dataa support but the t spirit of thhe author who w has experienced commendable developmeents and chan nges in the marine m field inn Bangladesh h over the last three decades. With 50 yardds developed by 2021, Bang gladesh will exxport 500 shipps on an averrage each of 100,000 dwt earnnings US$ 12.5 billions annnually retainning more thhan US$ 7.000 equivalent per year. A diirect employm ment of 150,0000 may be attaained. G pattern of repair yardss in Bangladeshh Fig.-7: Growth * A repaair facility (sslipway/dry-doock) capable of docking up u to Panamax with 50 dockiings in a year on o an averag ge. Fig.-6: Groowth pattern off shipyards in Bangladesh B * A unit shipyard is a facility witth employmennt strength of o 3000 and capable c of buuilding 10 noss. 10,000 dw wt MPC of an average a value, over projected time, of US S$ 25,000 milllion per piece. 8.2 Repairr earnings In ship repairs, materrial input accouunts for usuallyy 25%-30% of value of a repair, rem maining is foor services i.ee. financing coosts, facility coost, utilities andd manpower. Thus Banglaadesh has specific interests inn developingg ship repairr facilities. However H suchh facilities need n comparatiively higher in nvestments andd high leveel skilled maanpower. Rep pair industriees generally follow a reasonably grownn new buildingg sector. Havingg 20 docks/yarrds (Fig.-7) eaach serving 500 ships annu ually and billinng US$ 5.00 million m for eachh ship serveed, Bangladessh may earn 5 Billion US S dollars rettaining about US$ 3.50 biillion. A direcct employmennt opportunityy of 80,000 workforces iis foreseen. G patterrn of linkagee industries in Fig.-8: Growth Bangladesh * A linkaage industrial unit with 2000 employs will w produce US$ 10.00 million a year, y all beinng considered as export thhrough ship buuilding/ repair or directly accross the bordeer. 8.4 Beneffits of developed national sh hipping lines One of o the major spills s over bennefits of a weell grown shhipbuilding seector is the evolvement of xx Proceedings of MARTEC 2010 national shipping lines. Assuming an addition of 10 ships a year to national shipping lines, a fleet of 200 ships i.e. 2 million tons carrying capacity is seen developed by 2021. International sea borne commerce of Bangladesh may well exceed double of the volume of today i.e. reach to 100 million tons. 25% of these commerce will be borne by own fleet by 2021 earning about US$ 2.00 billion a year. For a healthy growth of exports and supplies of raw materials to local industries, national fleet carrying the commerce is a must. Apart from the retained earnings, employment benefits and created training scope, the role which will be played by evolved nation shipping lines in the national economy is invaluable. in 10 years and the number one in the field in 30 years, I foresee the required investments from home and abroad in shipbuilding and repair industries as well as in forward and backward linkage industries in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has all the ingredients for labour intensive shipbuilding and allied industries. With the encouragement of Government, dynamic entrepreneurship, infrastructural advantages shipbuilding may take the lead and stand out as the flagship sector of our economy. Soon, Bangladesh will enjoy the ripple effect of shipbuilding in the form of expansion in heavy industries. A change in lives of our people, through industrial employment generation, is expected and inevitable. 9. INFERENCE Bangladesh may lookout for the market segment of small & medium sea going vessels for new building and repair and vessels operating in national waters in many countries. This market is more than US$ 100.00 Billion and a US$ 10.00 Billion portion of this market is not difficult to be secured by Bangladesh. Cherishing the firm goal of Bangladesh to be the 4th largest ship exporters and repair services renderer xxi