APPROXIMATING RECREATION SITE CHOICE:
THE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY
OF A LEXICOGRAPHIC SEMI-ORDER MODEL
Alan E. Watson and Joseph W. Roggenbuck
ABSTRACT: The r e l e v a n c y of a l e x i c o g r a p h i c
semi-order model, a s a b a s i s f o r development of a
microcomputer-based d e c i s i o n a i d f o r backcountry
h i k e r s , was i n v e s t i g a t e d .
I n an i n t e r a c t i v e
microcomputer e x e r c i s e , i t was found t h a t a d e c i s i o n a i d based upon t h i s model may a s s i s t
r e c r e a t i o n i s t s i n r e d u c t i o n of a n a l t e r n a t i v e
s e t t o a c o g n i t i v e l y manageable number.
o f f i c e s d a i l y t o o b t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n on p r i m i t i v e
r e c r e a t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e immediate a r e a .
I f i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e f u l l s p e c t r m of opport u n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e i n a p a r t i c u l a r a r e a could
be p r e s e n t e d , r e c r e a t i o n i s t s may be a b l e t o choose
s i t e s t h a t meet t h e i r needs o u t s i d e h e a v i l y used
wilderness.
DECISION AIDS
INTRODUCTION
I n t h e e a s t e r n United S t a t e s , many F o r e s t S e r v i c e
managers of w i l d e r n e s s a r e a s a r e r e p o r t i n g heavy
and i n c r e a s i n g u s e l e v e l s (Roggenbuck and Watson
1981). Managers g e n e r a l l y b e l i e v e t h a t t e c h n i q u e s
t o disperse users within an area or across areas
could h e l p reduce c o n g e s t i o n , o v e r u s e , and perhaps
p h y s i c a l impacts (Hendee and o t h e r s 1978;
Roggenbuck and Watson 1981).
Not a l l F o r e s t S e r v i c e w i l d e r n e s s a r e a managers
i n t h e E a s t r e p o r t o v e r u s e , however. I n d e e d ,
r e p o r t s show s e v e r a l a r e a s have v e r y l i t t l e u s e
o r u s e a t such low l e v e l s t h a t impact i s n e g l i g i b l e (Roggenbuck and Watson 1981)
.
Alternatives t o v i s i t i n g a National Forest wildern e s s a r e a o f t e n e x i s t . Within a g i v e n r e g i o n ,
w i l d e r n e s s managed by t h e N a t i o n a l Park S e r v i c e ,
F i s h and W i l d l i f e S e r v i c e , some s t a t e s ( f o r examp l e , Tennessee Pocket W i l d e r n e s s ) , and some p r i v a t e l y owned and managed backcountry ( f o r example,
G r a n d f a t h e r Mountain i n North C a r o l i n a ) , and many
N a t i o n a l F o r e s t , N a t i o n a l Park, and S t a te-managed
backcountry o p p o r t u n i t i e s a r e o f t e n a v a i l a b l e .
The q u e s t i o n becomes: How do we encourage p e o p l e
l o o k i n g f o r a p r i m i t i v e outdoor r e c r e a t i o n exper i e n c e t o avoid t h e a r e a s t h a t a r e c u r r e n t l y
overused?
O f t e n , d e c i s i o n s a r e made t o v i s i t a g e o g r a p h i c
r e g i o n w i t h o u t a n a c t u a l d e c i s i o n concerning a
s p e c i f i c r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t y s i t e . This i s evidenced by t h e number of v i s i t o r s e n t e r i n g F o r e s t
S e r v i c e v i s i t o r c e n t e r s and D i s t r i c t Ranger
Paper p r e s e n t e d a t t h e R e c r e a t i o n Choice Behavior
Symposium, Missoula, MT, March 2 2 - 2 3 , 1984.
Alan E. Watson i s A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r , R e c r e a t i o n
and L e i s u r e S e r v i c e s , Georgia S o u t h e r n C o l l e g e ,
S t a t e s b o r o , GA.
Joseph W . Roggenbuck i s A s s o c i a t e
P r o f e s s o r of F o r e s t r y , V i r g i n i a P o l y t e c h n i c I n s t i t u t e and S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , Blacksburg, VA. Support
f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h was provided by t h e I n t e r m o u n t a i n
F o r e s t and Range Experiment S t a t i o n , USDA F o r e s t
Service.
Our i n t e r e s t i n t h e r e s e a r c h r e p o r t e d h e r e was
i n p r o v i d i n g a framework f o r development of d e c i s i o n a i d s f o r backcountry r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s e l e c t i o n . These d e c i s i o n a i d s would most l i k e l y be
used i n a F o r e s t S e r v i c e d i s t r i c t o f f i c e o r v i s i t o r c e n t e r or i n a c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o n t a c t s i t u a t i o n
of o t h e r l a n d management a g e n c i e s . C u r r e n t l y ,
b r o c h u r e s and some v e r b a l message from a n a t t e n d a n t i n a v i s i t o r c e n t e r a r e t y p i c a l l y provided.
The same w r i t t e n i n f o r m a t i o n i s p r e s e n t e d t o a l l
v i s i t o r s r e g a r d l e s s of r e a s o n s f o r v i s i t i n g . T h i s
o f t e n l e a d s t o t h e v i s i t o r s e a r c h i n g through t h e s e
m a t e r i a l s f o r personally relevant information.
One improvement over t h e b r o c h u r e p r e s e n t a t i o n
system w i t h i n t h e F o r e s t S e r v i c e i s t h e R e c r e a t i o n
O p p o r t u n i t y Guide (ROG) (USDA F o r e s t S e r v i c e 1979).
The ROG i s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t ' s u s e
a t t h e v i s i t o r c e n t e r o r f o r u s e by a r e c e p t i o n i s t
i n h e l p i n g t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t d e c i d e upon a s i t e
f o r a chosen a c t i v i t y . The ROG f o r t h e P i s g a h
D i s t r i c t of t h e P i s g a h N a t i o n a l F o r e s t i n North
C a r o l i n a i s d i v i d e d i n t o two l o o s e - l e a f notebooks:
(1) t r a i l s ; and (2) a l l o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n r e s o u r c e s
i n t h e d i s t r i c t . W i t h i n t h e t r a i l s s e c t i o n of
t h e ROG, names of t r a i l s a r e l i s t e d a l p h a b e t i c a l l y .
V a r i o u s i n f o r m a t i o n i s l i s t e d f o r each t r a i l s u c h
a s l e n g t h , a mapped l o c a t i o n , a c c e s s p o i n t s , a t t r a c t i o n s and c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , recommended s e a s o n ,
amount of u s e r e c e i v e d , d i f f i c u l t y , and change
i n e l e v a t i o n by d i s t a n c e .
The ROG f o r t r a i l s on t h e P i s g a h d i s t r i c t i s
indexed i n f o u r ways. T r a i l s a r e l i s t e d by a c t i v i t y ( f o r example, h i k i n g , s k i i n g , horseback
r i d i n g ) ; by name ( a l p h a b e t i c a l l y ) ; by l e n g t h ( i n
m i l e s ) ; and by a r e a ( p l a n n i n g u n i t w i t h i n t h e
d i s t r i c t ) . Using t h i s i n d e x , some a l t e r n a t i v e s
can be e l i m i n a t e d based upon l o c a t i o n , l e n g t h
of t r a i l , and a c t i v i t y i n t e r e s t . The r e c r e a t i o n i s t
must, however, s e a r c h through a n a l p h a b e t i c a l
l i s t i n g t o o b t a i n a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e
remaining a l t e r n a t i v e s
.
Another i n n o v a t i v e d e c i s i o n a i d , t e s t e d i n a d i s p e r s e d r e c r e a t i o n s e t t i n g , i s t h e Backcountry
T r a i l S e l e c t o r (Krumpe and Brown 1 98 2) . The
Backcountry T r a i l S e l e c t o r l e a d s a d e c i s i o n maker
through a s e r i e s of i n t e r m e d i a t e c h o i c e s ( f o r
example, a t r a i l a l o n g a s t r e a m v s . a t r a i l o v e r
h i g h p a s s e s ) t o a f i n a l c h o i c e between a l t e r n a t i v e s .
This d e c i s i o n a i d i s d e s c r i b e d a s a d e c i s i o n n e t ,
u s u a l l y d e p i c t e d a s a branching t r e e of s u c c e s s i v e
d e c i s i o n s t e p s . The d e c i s i o n n o d e s , o r b r a n c h e s ,
represent the individual, intermediate choices,
where a t t r i b u t e s of p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s i t e s
a r e c o n s i d e r e d . The b r a n c h t a k e n a t a node depends
on whether o r n o t t h e l e v e l of t h e a t t r i b u t e under
consideration i s satisfactory o r unsatisfactory.
The noncompensatory models of c h o i c e l o o k f o r
alternatives i n a decision situation t h a t are
satisfactory for a l l attributes or a particular
s e t of a t t r i b u t e s . A l t e r n a t i v e s a r e u s u a l l y compared on an a t t r i b u t e - b y - a t t r i b u t e b a s i s , r a t h e r
t h a n by comparing an e v a l u a t i v e s c o r e a s i n t h e
compensatory models. I n t h i s t y p e of d e c i s i o n
model one a t t r i b u t e does n o t compensate f o r t h e
l a c k of a n o t h e r . R a t h e r , i f t h e a t t r i b u t e i s
not present i n s u f f i c i e n t quantity, the alternative
i s excluded from f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n .
The need i s t o examine t h e s e two i n n o v a t i o n s t o
d e t e r m i n e s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses. D e c i s i o n
models e v o l v i n g from psychology and consumer behav i o r r e s e a r c h o f f e r some i n s i g h t i n t o how we might
b u i l d upon t h e s e two d e c i s i o n a i d s . A d d i t i o n a l l y ,
microcomputer-visi t o r i n t e r a c t i o n s y s tems potent i a l l y open new p o s s i b i l i t i e s i n c o n s t r u c t i o n
and a p p l i c a t i o n of d e c i s i o n a i d s . I f a t h e o r e t i c a l l y sound method of i n f o r m a t i o n p r e s e n t a t i o n
were provided, a n i n d i v i d u a l could work i n t e r a c t i v e l y w i t h t h e microcomputer t o g a i n p e r s o n a l l y
r e l e v a n t informa t i o n e f f i c i e n t l y
The l e x i c o g r a p h i c model c a l l s f o r a f i n i t e o r d e r i n g
of e l e m e n t s (Fishburn 1974). Most n o t a b l y , t h e
l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order c h o i c e model (Luce 1956;
Coombs 1964 ; Tversky 1969; Fishburn 1974) assumes
a n o r d e r i n g of t h e r e l e v a n t a t t r i b u t e s a p r i o r i .
T h i s o r d e r i n g i s based on importance of t h e a t t r i b u t e t o t h e d e c i s i o n maker when choosing among
a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n t h i s model a l l a l t e r n a t i v e s
a r e f i r s t compared on t h e most i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e .
The a 1 t e r n a t i v e s judged n o t s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r t h i s
most i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e a r e d e l e t e d from f u r t h e r
consideration.
This p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s w i t h t h o s e
a t t r i b u t e s judged t o be second, t h i r d , f o u r t h ,
e t c . , i n importance u n t i l o n l y one a c c e p t a b l e
alternative is l e f t .
.
DECISION MODELS
A l a r g e q u a n t i t y of d e c i s i o n - r e l a t e d r e s e a r c h
i n r e c r e a t i o n i s based upon t h e compensatory
approach of t h e expectancy X v a l e n c e t h e o r y framework (Haas and o t h e r s 1981; Manfredo 1979; C o c k r e l l
1981). T h i s framework s u g g e s t s t h a t d e c i s i o n s
might be b e s t p r e d i c t e d by combining i n f o r m a t i o n
on a t t r i b u t e s ( s p e c i f i c a l l y , i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e
v a l u e of s p e c i f i c outcomes r e l a t e d t o t h e a t t r i b u t e s and p r o b a b i l i t y of a c h i e v i n g t h e s p e c i f i c
outcomes) t o d e r i v e a s i n g l e e v a l u a t i v e s c o r e
f o r each a l t e r n a t i v e behavior ( f o r example, v i s i t s
t o a l t e r n a t i v e r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s ) being considered.
A p p l i c a t i o n s of t h e F i s h b e i n model of expectancy
X v a l e n c e t h e o r y a l s o o f t e n i n c l u d e a normative
component a s a f u r t h e r d e t e r m i n a n t of b e h a v i o r a l
i n t e n t i o n s ( C o c k r e l l 1981) .
On t h e b a s i s of t h e i r r e s e a r c h , C o c k r e l l (1981)
and Krumpe (1 979) b e l i e v e t h a t noncompensatory
models may be b e t t e r a t p r e d i c t i n g c h o i c e i n t h e
r e c r e a t i o n c o n t e x t ( f o r whatever r e a s o n ) t h a n
p r e v i o u s l y t e s t e d compensatory models. Tversky
(1 972, p 298) , one noncompensatory t h e o r i s t ,
s u p p o r t s t h i s b e l i e f by s t a t i n g t h a t t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c noncompensatory model may be a "good
approximation t o much more complicated compensatory
modelsff and, i n f a c t , may be "a u s e f u l s i m p l i f i c a t i o n procedure. "
Compensatory models may be
good p r e d i c t o r s of c h o i c e , b u t i n t h e r e c r e a t i o n
c o n t e x t a more simply o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d approximation
may p r o v i d e b e t t e r r e s u l t s t h a n p a s t e f f o r t s a t
a v e r y complex t a s k . Normative f a c t o r s , weigh t i n g s
of importance of a t t r i b u t e s , and c a l c u l a t i o n s
of v a l u e and e x p e c t a n c i e s a r e n o t involved i n
a noncompensatory model, though t h e i r e f f e c t s
may be approximated i n a s i m p l i f i e d manner.
.
N o t i c e u s e of t h e term " n o t s a t i s f a c t o r y " i n d e t e r mining which a l t e r n a t i v e t o drop from f u r t h e r
c o n s i d e r a t i o n . F i s h b u r n (1974) h a s recognized
t h a t i n many c a s e s i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o d i s c o v e r
a f e a s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t h a t i s "acceptable" or
" b e s t " f o r a l l c r i t e r i a o r wants. With a l e x i c o g r a p h i c o r d e r i n mind, Georgescu-Roegen (1 954,
p. 518) a s s e r t s t h a t " c h o i c e aims a t s a t i s f y i n g
t h e g r e a t e s t number of wants s t a r t i n g w i t h t h e
most i m p o r t a n t and going down t h e h i e r a r c h y .
T h e r e f o r e , c h o i c e i s determined by t h e l e a s t
i m p o r t a n t want t h a t could be reached."
F i s h b u r n (1974) r e f e r s t o t h i s p r o c e s s a s " s a t i s ficing-plus."
I n t h i s c a s e , one a c h i e v e s a s a t i s f a c t o r y l e v e l on a s many of t h e most i m p o r t a n t
c r i t e r i a a s p o s s i b l e , t h e n u s e s t h e n e x t most
i m p o r t a n t c r i t e r i a ( f o r which o n l y one of t h e
remaining a l t e r n a t i v e s i s " s a t i s f a c t o r y " ) t o
d i f f e r e n t i a t e among t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t a r e
s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r a l l preceding c r i t e r i a .
T h i s semi-order model i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by Luce
(1956) a s having a j u s t n o t i c e a b l e d i f f e r e n c e
s t r u c t u r e imposed on a l e x i c o g r a p h i c o r d e r i n g .
I n c l u s i o n of t h e semi-order f a c t o r r e s u l t s from
r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s which i n d i c a t e t h a t p r e f e r e n c e
f o r some v a l u e s of some a t t r i b u t e s i s n o t always
t r a n s i t i v e (Tversky 1969). Those s u p p o r t i n g a
compensatory approach seem t o b e l i e v e t h a t v a l u e s
of o t h e r a t t r i b u t e s might compensate f o r low v a l u e s
of a n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r . Semi-order l e x i c o g r a p h i c
p r o p o n e n t s , however, b e l i e v e t h a t s e v e r a l v a l u e s
of one a t t r i b u t e may n o t be " n o t i c e a b l y d i f f e r e n t ,"
thus are intransitive.
S e l e c t i o n may t h e r e f o r e
b e based on l e s s i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e s though t h e
a l t e r n a t i v e s d i f f e r , but not t o a noticeable
d e g r e e , on a v e r y i m p o r t a n t one.
Tversky (1 969) used t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order
model t o s t u d y i n t r a n s i t i v i t i e s i n p r e f e r e n c e .
I n a l a b o r a t o r y experiment he s t u d i e d t h e d e c i s i o n
p r o c e s s of s u b j e c t s who were choosing from c o l l e g e
a p p l i c a n t s t h e one t h e y thought should be a c c e p t e d .
S u b j e c t s a l s o were asked t o i n d i c a t e p r e f e r e n c e
between s i m p l e gambles. Tversky found t h a t t h e
semi-order c h o i c e model p r e d i c t e d s u b j e c t c h o i c e
b e t t e r t h a n a model assuming weak s t o c h a s t i c
t r a n s i t i v i t y ( t h e most g e n e r a l p r o b a b i l i s t i c
v e r s i o n of t r a n s i t i v i t y )
Tversky (1 969) concluded
t h a t when f a c e d w i t h complex m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l
a l t e r n a t i v e s , i t i s extremely d i f f i c u l t t o u t i l i z e
p r o p e r l y a l l of t h e a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n . I n s t e a d ,
i t a p p e a r s t h a t p e o p l e may employ v a r i o u s approximation methods t h a t e n a b l e them t o p r o c e s s t h e
r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n i n making a d e c i s i o n . The
l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order c h o i c e model may be j u s t
such a n approximation. I t i s e a s y t o a p p l y ,
w i t h o u t complex m a t h e m a t i c a l computations, and
i s f a i r l y e a s i l y u n d e r s t a n d a b l e by r e s e a r c h e r s
and t h o s e who apply r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s .
.
A s f o r many d e c i s i o n models t h a t have been proposed
i n t h e f i e l d s of economics and psychology, t h e r e
have been r e l a t i v e l y few e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s of
t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order model of c h o i c e
(Azumi 1981). Tversky (1 972) p o i n t e d o u t t h a t
t h e primary r e a s o n s f o r t h e l a c k of such model
t e s t i n g a r e t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s involved i n c o n t r o l l i n g
t h e experiment a p p r o p r i a t e l y and o b t a i n i n g a d e q u a t e
e s t i m a t e s of c h o i c e p r o b a b i l i t i e s .
S e l e c t i o n of t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order c h o i c e
model seems, however, j u s t i f i e d through a s e r i e s
of s m a l l e r , i n d i v i d u a l r e s e a r c h and t h e o r y b u i l d i n g
accomplishments. Evidence s u p p o r t i n g u s e of such
a model d e a l s w i t h a s u b j e c t ' s a b i l i t y t o make
d e c i s i o n s from i n f o r m a t i o n p r p , s n t e d s e q u e n t i a l l y .
I n many c a s e s , s u b j e c t s have shown a tendency
t o s e e k and p r o c e s s i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h a t manner.
The r e l a t i o n s h i p between s u b j e c t - e x p r e s s e d p r e f e r e n c e s f o r a t t r i b u t e s and c h o i c e s made between
a l t e r n a t i v e s h a s a l s o been e x p l o r e d i n a v a r i e t y
of c o n t e x t s .
S t u d i e s t h a t have s u c c e s s f u l l y p r e s e n t e d informat i o n i n a s e q u e n t i a l manner t o d e c i s i o n makers,
o r found t h e s u b j e c t t o use a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n
i n t h i s manner, a r e v a r i e d i n purpose and d i s c i p l i n e
(Olshavsky 1979; Powell 1979; Crow and o t h e r s
1980; Englander and Tyszka 1980; H e r s t e i n 1981;
Lowery 1981; Busemeyer 1982). Taken t o g e t h e r ,
although not s p e c i f i c a l l y t e s t i n g t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order c h o i c e model, t h e y do
p r e s e n t d a t a t h a t s u p p o r t t h e c o n c e p t of s e q u e n t i a l
information processing.
The noncompensatory approach, and t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c
semi-order model i n p a r t i c u l a r , a p p e a r s t o be
a v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t o p r e v i o u s l y used compensat o r y models i n p r e d i c t i n g r e c r e a t i o n i s t c h o i c e .
I n developing a decision a i d f o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e
selection i t is desirable t o use a presentation
format known t o approximate t h e a c t u a l d e c i s i o n
p r o c e s s and c o u l d , t h e r e f o r e , p r o v i d e such a format
f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n .
For t h e s e r e a s o n s ,
we s e l e c t e d t h i s model f o r t e s t i n g i n o u r r e s e a r c h .
METHODS
Our methodology i n c l u d e d a l a b o r a t o r y e x e r c i s e i n
which s u b j e c t s i n t e r a c t e d w i t h a microcomputer
t o c o l l e c t d a t a . Overnight backpackers, a s one
of t h e most common u s e r groups of backcountry,
were chosen a s t h e s u b j e c t p o p u l a t i o n . F i f t y
members of t h e l o c a l community were s e l e c t e d from
response t o l o c a l appeals f o r volunteers. Subjects
s e l e c t e d had backpacking e x p e r i e n c e ranging from
s e v e r a l y e a r s t o none ( t h o s e p l a n n i n g t h e i r f i r s t
trip).
I n Task 1, s u b j e c t s were asked t o s e l e c t from
1 5 h y p o t h e t i c a l backcountry a r e a s ( f i g . 1 ) a f i r s t ,
second, and t h i r d c h o i c e a s a p l a c e t o v i s i t .
The purpose of t h i s c h o i c e t a s k was t o p r o v i d e
a c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e on which t o e v a l u a t e t h e
p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y of t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c semio r d e r c h o i c e model. H y p o t h e t i c a l a r e a s were
a s s i g n e d numbers r a t h e r t h a n names t o avoid p r e f e r ence e f f e c t s due t o t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of t h e
name. The 15 a t t r i b u t e s l i s t e d i n t h e same o r d e r
f o r each a r e a were t h o s e found t o be most r e l e v a n t
t o p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a p i l o t s t u d y . The o r d e r of
p r e s e n t a t i o n of a t t r i b u t e i n f o r m a t i o n was randomly
g e n e r a t e d and assumed t o have no s i g n i f i c a n c e .
Values f o r t h e a t t r i b u t e s were determined w i t h
concern f o r a s s u r i n g some c o n f l i c t . We sought
t o a v o i d making any a r e a s o a t t r a c t i v e t h a t e v e r y
s u b j e c t would choose i t . Also, t h e 15 a r e a s needed
t o be d i f f e r e n t enough f o r a s i n g l e c h o i c e t o
emerge.
Task 2 e n t a i l e d c o l l e c t i o n of d a t a v i a a microcomputer.
I n a n i n t e r a c t i v e microcomputer e x e r c i s e
developed s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r t h i s s t u d y , each s u b j e c t
ranked t h e 15 a t t r i b u t e s from Task 1 i n terms
of importance t o choosing among a 1t e r n a t i v e backc o u n t r y r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Each s u b j e c t was n e x t
asked t o i n d i c a t e a p r e f e r e n c e f o r t h e v a l u e s
of t h e a t t r i b u t e s i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner: " 2 , "
c a t e g o r y t h a t was most d e s i r a b l e ; "1," c a t e g o r i e s
t h a t were a c c e p t a b l e ; o r "0," c a t e g o r i e s t h a t
were d e f i n i t e l y u n a c c e p t a b l e . Minimum t h r e s h o l d s
of a c c e p t a n c e were e s t a b l i s h e d f o r a t t r i b u t e s
Indications
w i t h a t l e a s t one v a l u e r a t e d " 0 . "
of p r e f e r e n c e of v a l u e s were o b t a i n e d f o r a t t r i b u t e s c o n t a i n i n g a "2" d e s i g n a t i o n . From t h i s
i n f o r m a t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s were e l i m i n a t e d i n a
s e q u e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c semio r d e r model and a f i n a l c h o i c e p r e d i c t e d .
I n t h e e l i m i n a t i o n p r o c e s s t h e experimenter s t a r t e d
w i t h each s u b j e c t ' s most i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e and
proceeded through t h e a t t r i b u t e s one a t a time
( f i g . 2 ) . A l l a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t e x h i b i t e d unaccepta b l e v a l u e s f o r t h e most i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e were
e l i m i n a t e d . T h i s p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e d w i t h t h e second,
t h i r d , e t c . , most i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e s w i t h t h e
g o a l of r e a c h i n g o n l y one a l t e r n a t i v e . I f more
t h a n one a l t e r n a t i v e remained, we then s e l e c t e d
a s t h e predicted choice the a l t e r n a t i v e t h a t
p o s s e s s e d t h e p r e f e r r e d c a t e g o r y of t h e h i g h e s t
ranked a t t r i b u t e , f o r which no o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e
possessed t h e preferred category.
RESULTS
I n 48 of t h e 50 c a s e s , a c l e a r c h o i c e was p r e d i c t e d
from i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d through t h e microcomputer e x e r c i s e . I n o n l y two c a s e s c o u l d no
c l e a r "winner" be p r e d i c t e d . I n 2 7 c a s e s (54
p e r c e n t ) , t h e p r e d i c t e d c h o i c e matched t h e s u b j e c t ' s
a c t u a l c h o i c e . The p r e d i c t i v e s u c c e s s of t h i s
noncompensatory model i s d i f f i c u l t t o compare
d i r e c t l y w i t h p a s t t e s t s of compensatory approaches
i n t h e r e c r e a t i o n c o n t e x t . I n one of t h e most
r e c e n t a p p l i c a t i o n s of t h e F i s h b e i n model, however,
C o c k r e l l (1981) r e p o r t e d n o n s i g n i f i c a n t R-squares
i n f i v e of s i x r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s used f o r
p r e d i c t i o n . Elements of t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s
i n c l u d e d a t t i t u d e s and norms toward v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e a r e a s . The l a c k of s i g n i f i c a n t R-squares
was i n t e r p r e t e d by C o c k r e l l t o be a n i n d i c a t i o n
of l i t t l e p r e d i c t i v e s u c c e s s . He concluded t h a t
a r i v e r runner's intentions t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n
a r i v e r t r i p a r e n o t determined by t h e p e r s o n ' s
a t t i t u d e s toward t h e t r i p and h i s s o c i a l norms
about the t r i p .
Although t h e c h o i c e p r e d i c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y of t h e
l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order model i s s u b s t a n t i a l ,
t h e model's a b i l i t y t o p r e d i c t e l i m i n a t i o n of
a l t e r n a t i v e s i s even more noteworthy. I n 7 2 percent of t h e cases i n our study, t h e p r e d i c t i o n
p r o c e s s s u c c e s s f u l l y e l i m i n a t e d twelve of t h e
15 a l t e r n a t i v e s , l e a v i n g a s e t of t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e s , one of which was t h e s u b j e c t ' s f i r s t
c h o i c e . T h i s f i g u r e i n c r e a s e d t o 86 p e r c e n t f o r
d e r i v i n g a s e t of f i v e a r e a s t h a t c o n t a i n e d t h e
s u b j e c t ' s f i r s t choice.
The a r e a s e l e c t e d a s t h e f i r s t c h o i c e by t h e subj e c t i n Task 1 and which s e r v e d a s t h e c r i t e r i o n
measure f o r e v a l u a t i n g t h e p r e d i c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y
of t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order c h o i c e model may
n o t have been t h e i n d i v i d u a l ' s " b e s t " c h o i c e .
R e c a l l t h a t Task 1 was a w r i t t e n e x e r c i s e t h a t
r e q u i r e d t h e s u b j e c t t o name a f i r s t , second,
and t h i r d c h o i c e among 15 h y p o t h e t i c a l backcountry
a r e a s . I n f o r m a t i o n on 15 a t t r i b u t e s f o r each
of t h e s e 1 5 a r e a s was p r e s e n t e d .to t h e s u b j e c t
i n t a b u l a r form. T h i s t a s k , designed a s i t was
t o a s s u r e some c o n f l i c t i n d e c i s i o n making, may
have been s o d i f f i c u l t t h a t t h e " b e s t " d e c i s i o n
was n o t made. I f t h i s o c c u r r e d , t h e n t h e p r e d i c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y of t h e model may be u n d e r e s t i m a t e d .
The p r e d i c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y may have been b e t t e r
had fewer a r e a s , fewer a t t r i b u t e s , o r a d i f f e r e n t
method of p r e s e n t i n g t h e a t t r i b u t e i n f o r m a t i o n
been used i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e c r i t e r i o n measure.
I t i s p o s s i b l e , however, t h a t t h e p r o c e d u r e used
t o i d e n t i f y t h e c r i t e r i o n measure may have i n c r e a s e d
t h e l i k e l i h o o d of a v a l i d s e l e c t i o n of a " b e s t "
c h o i c e . The r e s e a r c h e r communicated i n s t r u c t i o n s
t o t h e s u b j e c t s o r a l l y , o n l y one s u b j e c t a t a
time was p r o c e s s e d , and t h e s u b j e c t was aware
t h a t t h e g e n e r a l g o a l of t h e s t u d y was t o f i n d
o u t how p e o p l e make d e c i s i o n s a b o u t where t o go
on r e c r e a t i o n v i s i t s . A s u b j e c t making a d e c i s i o n
i n t h i s c o n t e x t may have a t t e m p t e d t o v e r y c a r e f u l l y
p r o c e s s every i t e m of i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e . Such
p r o c e s s i n g may, i n f a c t , be more complete t h a n
i n a r e a l s i t u a t i o n without o r a l i n s t r u c t i o n s
and knowledge of t h e purpose t o which r e s p o n s e s
were t o be a p p l i e d .
CONCLUSIONS
The l e x i c o g r a p h i c semi-order c h o i c e model used
i n t h i s s t u d y d i d n o t approximate t h e backcountry
s i t e s e l e c t i o n d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s c l o s e l y enough
t o s e l e c t a f i n a l c h o i c e f o r a l l u s e r s . Our f i n d i n g s d o , however, s u g g e s t t h a t a d e c i s i o n a i d
based upon t h i s model could a s s i s t a r e c r e a t i o n i s t
i n r e d u c i n g a s e t of a l t e r n a t i v e s i t e c h o i c e s
t o a manageable number. E f f o r t s t o develop such
a n a i d , which would a s s i s t t h e u s e r i n d e t e r m i n i n g
a v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s e t containing three t o f i v e
a l t e r n a t i v e s , would p r o v i d e a g r e a t s e r v i c e t o
t h e u s e r and be j u s t i f i e d .
One p o s s i b l e immediate a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e s e f i n d i n g s
would be t o develop a microcomputer-based d e c i s i o n
a i d b u i l t upon t h e p r i n c i p l e s of t h e l e x i c o g r a p h i c
semi-order model f o r u s e on a F o r e s t S e r v i c e Dist r i c t t o supplement c u r r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n and educat i o n e f f o r t s . T h i s d e c i s i o n a i d could improve
i n f o r m a t i o n d i s s e m i n a t i o n programs w h i l e i t c o l l e c t e d some v e r y u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e manager.
I n f o r m a t i o n t h a t could be recorded would i n c l u d e
what a t t r i b u t e s must meet minimum t h r e s h o l d s f o r
a c c e p t a n c e , what t h e s e t h r e s h o l d l e v e l s a r e , and
f i n a l l y , g i v e n t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , what s p e c i f i c
areas decision aid users decide t o v i s i t .
Needed a d d i t i o n a l r e s e a r c h would i n c l u d e t h e opport u n i t y t o compare t h e s i t e chosen from t h e d e c i s i o n
a i d e x e r c i s e t o t h e a c t u a l s i t e v i s i t e d . These
d a t a could be c o l l e c t e d o b s e r v a t i o n a l l y and would
be a d e s i r a b l e follow-up t e s t on t h e u s e f u l n e s s
of such a d e c i s i o n a i d . Another r e s e a r c h need
i s t o manipulate d a t a considered i n t h e decision
p r o c e s s t o t e s t f o r r e s u l t a n t changes i n c h o i c e
b e h a v i o r . Both of t h e s e s u g g e s t i o n s a r i s e from
t h e need t o d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s can
and w i l l u s e such a d e c i s i o n a i d , and t h a t t h e
c o n t e n t and manner of p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h e i n f o r mation s u p p l i e d produces enough c o n f i d e n c e i n
t h e d e c i s i o n t h a t t h e chosen a r e a i s a c t u a l l y
visited.
The e m p i r i c a l s u p p o r t of t h e l e s i c o g r a p h i c semio r d e r c h o i c e model p r o v i d e s a b a s i s f o r a n a l y s i s
of t h e R e c r e a t i o n O p p o r t u n i t y Guide and t h e Backc o u n t r y T r a i l S e l e c t o r a s d e c i s i o n a i d s . An obvious
weakness of t h e ROG i s t h e l a c k of a d a p t a b i l i t y
t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l . The l a c k of d e s i r a b i l i t y of
a few f i x e d i n d e x i n g i t e m s i s r e i n f o r c e d by
examination of t h e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e r a n k i n g s
of a t t r i b u t e s i n t h i s s t u d y . Many d i f f e r e n t a t t r i b u t e s and a r e a s were i n d i c a t e d a s top c h o i c e s
by s t u d y p a r t i c i p a n t s . It t h e r e f o r e seems erroneous
t o assume t h a t m i l e s of t r a i l , name of a r e a , and
planning u n i t l o c a t i o n a r e relevant or important
a t t r i b u t e s f o r every u s e r of t h e ROG. Without
i n d e x i n g by r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s , t h e i n d i v i d u a l
u s e r of a ROG must l e a f through every page t o
search out a d e s t i n a t i o n . This i s exactly the
t y p e of overwhelming i n f o r m a t i o n ( o f t e n l e a d i n g
t o u n s a t i s f a c t o r y c h o i c e s ) t h a t any d e c i s i o n a i d
should be t r y i n g t o minimize.
The method of p r e s e n t a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n ,using
t h e Backcountry T r a i l S e l e c t o r h a s t h e same weakness--lack of a d a p t a b i l i t y t o t h e n e e d s of t h e
i n d i v i d u a l u s e r . By f o r c i n g every i n d i v i d u a l
t o c o n s i d e r t h e same a t t r i b u t e f i r s t , we a r e assuming t h a t the a t t r i b u t e i s not only a relevant
one, b u t t h e most i m p o r t a n t one f o r a l l u s e r s .
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