PROJECTING CLIMATE
CHANGES AND ECOLOGICAL
RESPONSES
GARY D. SHARP (1), LEONID KLYASHTORIN (2),
And DOUGLAS McLAIN (1, 3)
(1) Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study,
Salinas, CA.
(2) VNIRO, Moscow
(3) CoML/TOPP, Hopkins Marine Station,
Pacific Grove, CA.
Operational Fisheries
Oceanography 1A thru
Today
Moon Phase
Season
Location, Location, Location
Winds
Swell
Tides
Godthab Nuuk, Greenland annual mean temperatures (NASA GISS) top
and the AMO bottom (annual dark blue and 5 year running mean purple)
source CDC Climate Indices
Arctic basin wide temperatures from Polyakov
(2004) versus PDO+AMO (STD).
Dark blue is annual and purple 5 year running means.
Major Atmospheric Greenhouse Warming
Components.
Proportion of Atmospheric CO2 of Total that is
man-made
Total Human contribution to Green House effect
= ~ 0.278% - not very great portion
Coral reefs first formed back in the Devonian period when
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were ten times today’s.
Forecasting the Future from History
2100
2100
From Joseph Fletcher’s Lecture on 21st Century Climate
Sunspot Cycles 1700 - 2030
Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and Predicted
Climate Response by David C. Archibald
Energy and Environment, 2006, 17:1
SOLAR CYCLES 24 AND 25 AND
PREDICTED CLIMATE RESPONSE David C. Archibald 2006, 2007 in press Climate Outlook
to 2030 Energy and Environment,)
Based on solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25 - a global
temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020, equating to the experience of the
Dalton Minimum Vs The 2C increase predicted from the Dikpati scenario.
There is more to Ecosystem
Patterns than only decadal scale
Climate Variabilities.
The Olde
and
The NEW
QuickTime™ and a
GIF decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Leonid Klyashorin and I have worked hard together
starting with our Convergence in early 2000 - then I had
him invited to Rome - FAO folks were impressed…
And given my
long-term
interests - and
many colleagues
from PACLIM and
around the Globe
- in 2001 Leonid
arrived @ PACLIM
- and we both
continued our
efforts to get
attention on the
real issues -
3-D diagram of temporal dynamics of power spectra of reconstructed temperature
by Greenland Ice Cores analysis ( 18O) for the time period 553-1973 years AD
8.5 years
Periodicity
Temporal dynamics of power spectra of reconstructed temperature
by Greenland ice cores analysis (Ice Cores dT)
for the time period 553-1973 years AD.
12.5 years
(Corresponding
periods, years)
(12.5 )
8.5years
0.08
Frequency, 1/year
-0.10
(16.7)
0.06
18.5 years
-0.30
33 years
(25)
-0.50
0.04
-0.70
160 years
(50)
55 years
0.02
-0.90
-1.10
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
Right-hand end of the moving time window of the length = 600 years
1900
Years
Evolution of the decimal logarithm of the power spectra of Greenland ice core temperature,
estimated within moving time window of the length = 600 years,
shift = 5 years, AR-order = 60.
M. Ben-Yami - WORLD FISHING, Dec. 2006/Jan. 2007
ENLIGHTMENT FROM RUSSIA
A wise man said once: a people without history is a people without
future. I'd paraphrase: science that ignores former studies and
historical data cannot produce reliable predictions. This is also true for
all those who attribute to fishing being the single or predominant
cause for all trends and variations in fish populations.
I often wonder how references quoted in so many learned articles on
fisheries related subjects reach only 5 or 10 year back. Fisheries
science started developing towards the ascent of the last century and
has flourished throughout since. Long term data series and historical
information on fish yields fluctuations and on climatic variations, as
well as biological/ecological knowledge on life history and behaviour
of the main commercial species have been long available….
• And Finishes with - One can only conclude that ignoring regime shifts
and other climatic fluctuations can lead to misunderstanding of the
role of fishing on marine fish populations and their ecosystems, and
consequently to their mismanagement. While overfishing is a fact in
many cases, it alone doesn’t explain the boom-and-bust fishing reality.
Neither can management steps “recover” fish stocks to their former
state, if those are on a downward section of their natural cycle.
The 2005 Russian book represents the most authoritative and-up-todate analysis of the effect of climatic and planetary factors on fishery
resources, in particular, and fishery ecosystems, in general. To make it
accessible to, it should soonest be translated to English, for It would
open the eyes of fishery scientists and managers to the bitter truth that
they cannot “recover” a stock, which is on the downward slope of its
multi-annual variation. Neither should they depress fishing of a stock
that’s half way up on the upwards slope of its cycle. Hopefully, it will
help in so much needed overhauling of the prevailing fisheries
science-cum-management system. English Version Soon off the
Press in Moscow
The projected trend of total commercial catch (100,000 tons;
bold line) of Norwegian spring-spawning herring for the
next 50 years. Thin line shows commercial catch; bold red
line shows probable trend marked with
standard deviation vertical bars
The projected trend of total commercial catches (million.tons;
bold line) of Japanese sardine Sardinops melanosticus with a
50 year future perspective.
Thin line commercial catch; bold red line shows probable trend marked
with standard deviation vertical bars
The projected trend of total commercial catch (million tons;
bold line) of Norwegian Arctic cod Gadus morhua for the next
50 years. Thin line shows commercial catch; bold red line
shows probable trend - with standard deviation vertical bars
Green & Orange arrows Signal Beginnings of Blooms,
Red arrows = periods of No Fishing for key species
ENSO Warm
Events Affect
Ocean Production
Centers, Causing
Changes in Both
Fish & Fisheries
Cold Events
Affect Both
Oceans and
Ecosystems by
Reversing the
Locations of
Predators &
Fisheries.
Zonal (ACI E-W) winds cause
Warm ocean conditions Meridional (N-S) ACI-C winds
force coastal upwelling, hence
Cold ocean conditions along
eastern boundaries, where
fisheries are most productive Two separate faunas have
evolved in response. A third
species mix underlies all these
dynamics that just plods along low response to all changes.
Length of Day (LOD) Earth’s rotation rate responds to energy (mass)
content and Circulation
Changes in Earth’s
atmosphere as climate varies.
This provides a six year
indicative forecast of
interactive physical forcing
processes that affect all
marine ecosystems.
Solar Irradiance Energizes the Earth!
But, We have only since 1979 begun to make
Direct and accurate via satellite measurements
El Niño Years Marked Red
Given what we saw in previous slide:
i.e., More Solar Energy Modulates Event Frequency
What would you expect over next decade?
???
Vancouver
Panama
Can CLIOTOP and TOPP
Fill In These Voids ???
Valparaiso
Andreas Walli - 2007
Necessary Actions to Take - NOW!
1 -What’s Coming up? Monitor Climate Indices and -LOD
2 - Which Species will do what - given historical response information;
3 - Define Indicators of Transitions - both Physical and Ecological;
4 - Continuous catch Monitoring - via Collaborations with Fishermen;
5 - Rapid Control/Management of
Fishing Effort Location and Intensity;
6 - Continuous Environmental Monitoring for Long-Term Signals;
7 - Rapid Response to Event-Scale ‘Noise’ - i.e., ENSO Warm/Cold;
8 - Market-Floor Flow-Through Measures to Inhibit Gold-Rushes;
9 - Re-education of Fisheries Managers, and Industry about Transitions.
THE INTEGRATED SCIENCES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE & APPLIED FISHERIES
OCEANOGRAPHY
Gary D. Sharp,
Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study,
SALINAS, California USA,
Website: It’s All About Time & Place
http://sharpgary.org