Sioux Falls Argus Leader, SD 11-02-06 Dairy cow numbers to increase next year By BEN SHOUSE bshouse@argusleader.com BROOKINGS - South Dakota could have 15,000 more dairy cows by next year, a sharp reversal after decades of decline, state Agriculture Secretary Larry Gabriel said Wednesday. The growth would represent an increase of 18 percent over the estimated 81,000 dairy cows now in the state. Gabriel said his projection represents expanding dairies and new dairies that are at some stage of development. He said retirements could trim the herd by 5,000 cows, but it is "realistic" to expect 20,000 new cows at new or expanding operations, for a net increase of 15,000. "We are poised to have an increase in our herd of 20,000 cows in the next 12 months," Gabriel told a conference of water managers and other professionals at the Swiftel Center in Brookings. The group was gathered for the first Eastern South Dakota Water Conference, organized by South Dakota State University. Gabriel has promoted new dairies for years, citing eastern South Dakota's excellent climate for milk production. Some local groups have opposed him because of possible air and water pollution, but one water quality official said Wednesday the new dairies pose little threat. The number of dairy cows in the state has been decreasing since it peaked at 675,000 in 1934. In 1996, the total stood at 115,000, according to the South Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service. But Gabriel says South Dakota's climate gives it "the best economic advantage of anywhere in the United States, anywhere in North America and - what? anywhere in the world." He said economic development is essential to keeping young people in the state, but that some residents are unreasonably opposed to development. "We've got a group in the state that is called CAVE people: citizens against virtually everything," he told the crowd of more than 100 Wednesday. He did not name names, but one group that has opposed large dairies in the past is Dakota Rural Action, based in Brookings. "I'm very frustrated to hear him say something like that," said Silvia Christen, an organizer for the group. She said there are legitimate health and water quality concerns with new dairies. "Fifteen thousand animals, to me, is scary because most of them. ... they're probably coming into the I-29 corridor. And that's the Big Sioux aquifer. "The state does have regulations on this stuff, but there is no enforcement," she said. There also is some evidence - from Iowa State University, for example - that livestock odors can have negative health effects. Gabriel acknowledged Wednesday that odor is an issue that needs more research. Jay Gilbertson, director of the East Dakota Water Development District, said he is not concerned that new dairies will pollute the water. The state's "general permit" requires that dairies with more than 700 adult cows have manure lagoons with zero discharge, except in extremely rare rain events. A study by East Dakota showed most livestock pollution in the Big Sioux likely comes from smaller operations. "I've said all along, I'm very comfortable with the state requirements for the general permit," Gilbertson said.