#(!04%2 #ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS +ENNETH%3KOG53$!&OREST3ERVICE&OREST0RODUCTS,ABORATORY 'ERALDINE!.ICHOLSON-ARYLAND%NERGY!DMINISTRATION )NTRODUCTION 2ECOGNITIONTHATINCREASINGLEVELSOF#/INTHEATMO SPHEREWILLAFFECTTHEGLOBALCLIMATEHASSPURREDRESEARCH INTO REDUCING GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS AND INCREASING CARBON SEQUESTRATION 4HE MAIN NONHUMAN SOURCES OF ATMOSPHERIC#/AREANIMALRESPIRATIONANDDECAYOFBIO MASS 53 #ONGRESS /4! (OWEVER INCREASES IN ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS ARE ATTRIBUTED MAINLY TO FOSSIL FUEL BURNINGANDLANDUSECHANGE7HILEEFFORTSTOHOLDDOWN EMISSIONS OF #/ CONTINUE INCREASES IN #/ EMISSIONS CANALSOBEOFFSETTOADEGREEBYACCUMULATIONINCARBON SINKSSUCHASPLANTBIOMASSANDOCEANS)TISTHEREFOREPRU DENTTOFOCUSRESEARCHEFFORTSBOTHONINCREASINGCARBONIN SINKSANDREDUCINGCARBONEMISSIONS )N 53 #/ EMISSIONS WERE 4G CARBON EQUIVALENT#LINTONAND'OREWHERE4GISMILLION METRICTONS7OODANDPAPERPRODUCTSPLAYANIMPORTANT ROLEINMITIGATINGTHESEEMISSIONSBYSEQUESTERINGCARBON 4HERE ARE CURRENTLY LARGE STOCKS OF CARBON IN FORESTS IN WOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSINUSEANDINDUMPSANDLAND lLLS4HESIZEOFTHESECARBONSTOCKSISINCREASING)N APPROXIMATELY 4G OF CARBON OR PERCENT OF THE LEVELOF53EMISSIONSWASHARVESTEDANDREMOVEDFROM FORESTSFORPRODUCTS)FASUBSTANTIALPORTIONOFTHISCARBON COULD BE PREVENTED FROM RETURNING TO THE ATMOSPHERE IT COULD BE A NOTABLE CONTRIBUTION TO MITIGATING CARBON BUILDUPINTHEATMOSPHERE 7EUSETHETERMSEQUESTRATIONTOREFERTOTHENETSEQUES TRATIONOVERAPERIODOFTIMEINASTOCKOFCARBONCARBON INFORESTSCARBONINFORESTPRODUCTSINUSEINCLUDINGNET IMPORTS OR CARBON IN FOREST PRODUCTS IN LANDlLLS 4HIS EXPANDSTHEUSEOFTHETERMBEYONDITSCOMMONUSEREFER RINGTONETSEQUESTRATIONOFCARBONTOFORESTS #ARBONSEQUESTRATIONTOWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSHAS BEENASSESSEDINSEVERALOTHERSTUDIES3OMESTUDIESASSESS CARBONSEQUESTRATIONFORARANGEOFHYPOTHETICALCONDITIONS OFFORESTGROWTHHARVESTENDUSEANDDISPOSAL3CHLAMA DINGERAND-ARLAND!WORLDWIDESTUDYBY7INJUM ETALESTIMATESNETmOWSOFCARBONOUTOFFORESTSAND INTOPRODUCTSUSINGTHETWOACCOUNTINGFRAMEWORKSUSED IN THIS STUDYTHE STOCK CHANGE METHOD AND THE ATMO SPHERICmOWMETHOD4HEYUSESIMPLIlEDASSUMPTIONSTO MAKEESTIMATESOFNETSTOCKCHANGESANDNETEMISSIONSTO THEATMOSPHEREBYWORLDREGIONANDFORSELECTEDCOUNTRIES 4HEY INCLUDE ESTIMATES OF LOGGING RESIDUE AND ASSUMED DECAY4HEIRRESULTSASNOTEDBELOWARECLOSETOOURSEVEN 53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n THOUGH THEIR METHODS ARE VERY DIFFERENT /THER STUDIES FOCUSINGONTHE5NITED3TATESSIMILARTOTHISONEESTIMATE THE ACTUAL STOCKS AND mOWS OF CARBON FROM 53 FORESTS TOPRODUCTSINUSETODUMPSORLANDlLLSANDTOBURNING ANDEMISSIONSFROMDECAYINCLUDINGRECONSTRUCTIONOFHIS TORICALmOWSANDPROJECTIONS(EATHETAL2OWAND 0HELPS4HISSTUDYPRESENTSSIMILARRESULTSWITHTHREE IMPROVEMENTS USE OF GREATER DETAIL IN THE CHANGING COMPOSITIONOFENDUSESOFWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS INCLUSION OF NET IMPORTS OF WOOD AND PAPER PRODUCTS IN CARBON SEQUESTRATION ESTIMATES AND USE OF NEW MUCH LOWER DECAY ESTIMATES FOR WOOD AND PAPER IN LANDlLLS INCLUDING SEPARATE ESTIMATES OF #/ AND #( PORTIONS 4HESEIMPROVEMENTSHELPPROVIDEACLEARERUNDERSTANDING OFHOWSEQUESTRATIONTOPRODUCTSMAYCHANGE /UR PURPOSE IS TO SHOW AN INDEPTH METHOD OF PRO VIDINGHISTORICALESTIMATESANDPROJECTIONSOF53CARBON SEQUESTRATIONTOWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS7ECOMPARE THOSEESTIMATESTOAMOUNTSSEQUESTEREDIN53FORESTSAN ESTIMATEOFCARBONSTOCKCHANGEINTHE5NITED3TATES7E ALSOSHOWHOWAMOUNTSUSEDTOESTIMATETHENETSEQUES TRATIONINPRODUCTSANDFORESTSEACHYEARMAYBEUSEDTO ESTIMATETHENETREMOVALSOFCARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHERE TOTHE5NITED3TATESEACHYEARANESTIMATEOFCARBONmOW TO THE 5NITED 3TATES 7E DISCUSS HOW PATTERNS OF WOOD USE HAVE CHANGED AND WILL CHANGE AND HOW THEY WILL INmUENCETHEPATTERNANDAMOUNTSOFCARBONSEQUESTERED -ETHODS (ISTORICALDATAANDLONGRANGEPROJECTIONSWEREUSEDTO TRACKROUNDWOODANDCARBONDISPOSITIONTHROUGHTOEND USES SUCH AS HOUSING OR PAPER 4O TRACK CARBON BEYOND END USES TO WASTE PRODUCTS WE ESTIMATED BURNING DIS POSAL AND DECAY FOR WASTE GENERATED IN THE PROCESS OF USINGPRIMARYPRODUCTSANDFORRATESOFPRODUCTDISPOSAL FROMENDUSESDECAYANDBURNING 4HE SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS IS FOCUSED AND LIMITED IN A NUMBEROFWAYS7ETRACKCARBONHARVESTEDANDREMOVED FROM ROUNDWOOD HARVEST SITES 4HE DECAY AND CARBON EMISSIONSFROMLOGGINGRESIDUEISCONTAINEDINSEPARATE ESTIMATES WE DISPLAY OF NET SEQUESTRATION IN FORESTS 7E DID NOT ESTIMATE THE AMOUNTS OF CARBON RELEASED DUE TO FOSSILFUELSBURNEDBYHARVESTINGEQUIPMENTORTOPOWER PRIMARYORSECONDARYWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSMILLSOR TOMAKElNALPRODUCTSUSINGWOODSUCHASHOUSING7E 3KOGAND.ICHOLSON NOTEHOWMUCHCARBONWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSSEQUES TER THAT MAY OFFSET SUCH EMISSIONS 7E SHOW ESTIMATES OF NET SEQUESTRATION IN FORESTS THE ESTIMATES INCLUDE ALL CARBONACCUMULATIONINTREESANDSOILANDALLDEDUCTIONS FOR DECAY OF DEAD TREES INCLUDING LOGGING RESIDUE AND DEDUCTIONSDUETOEMISSIONSFROMFORESTlRES7EINCLUDE EMISSIONS FROM ALL BURNING OF WOOD RESIDUE AND DIS CARDED WOOD FOR ENERGY OR INCINERATION AND OVER TIME ALL REGROWTH OF ALL TREES /UR MODEL PROJECTIONS DO NOT INCLUDEPROJECTIONSOFBIOMASSPLANTATIONSFORENERGYPRO DUCTION 7E DID NOT CALCULATE IF OVER TIME THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE EFFECT OF HARVESTING AND USING WOOD FOR FUELINCREASESTHEGROWTHINFORESTSOVERTHEGROWTHTHAT WOULDOCCURWITHOUTWOODBURNINGSOASTOREABSORBTHE CARBON EMITTED BY BURNING 4HIS IS AN IMPORTANT QUES TIONFORFURTHERRESEARCH7EESTIMATEDTHEAMOUNTOFHAR VESTED AND USED CARBON AND ITS DISPOSITION STARTING IN &OROURHISTORICALESTIMATESPOSTANDPROJECTIONS WE TRACKED CARBON ADDED TO AND EMITTED FROM STOCKS OF WOOD AND PAPER PRODUCTS IN THE 5NITED 3TATES .ET SEQUESTRATION TO 53 CARBON SINKS COME FROM WOOD IN TREESHARVESTEDINTHE5NITED3TATESANDFROMNETIMPORTS IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF LOGS AND WOOD AND PAPER PRODUCTS (ISTORICAL HARVEST AND PRODUCT USE DATA ARE NEEDED TO ESTIMATE FUTURE EMISSIONS FROM PRODUCTS THAT WEREMANUFACTUREDINTHEPAST#ARBONCONTAINEDINHAR VESTEDTIMBERANDNETIMPORTSISTRACKEDTHROUGHPRIMARY PROCESSINGINTOPRODUCTSANDENDUSESlGADAPTED FROM 2OW AND 0HELPS 7OOD OR PAPER RESIDUES ARE GENERATED AT ALL PHASES OF PROCESSING AND ARE EITHER REUSED IN A PRODUCT BURNED WITH OR WITHOUT ENERGY OR DUMPEDHISTORICALLYORLANDlLLEDCURRENTLY7OODAND PAPER PRODUCTS ARE TRACKED TO VARIOUS END USES WHERE THEYHAVEALIMITEDLIFESPANANDARERETIREDFROMUSEAND SENT TO LANDlLLS OR BURNED 4HE FATE OF LOGGING RESIDUES WERENOTCONSIDEREDINTHISMODELSINCEDECAYANDEMIS SIONSFROMTHESERESIDUESAREMODELEDASPARTOFTHEFOREST ECOSYSTEMANDINCLUDEDINESTIMATESOFCHANGEINCARBON SEQUESTERED IN FORESTS (EATH AND "IRDSEY "IRDSEY AND(EATH (ISTORICALDATAONWOODHARVESTANDENDUSEFROM THROUGHAREFROM53$!&OREST3ERVICESURVEYSAND ESTIMATES 53$! &OREST 3ERVICE 7ADELLETAL(ISTORICALWOOD HARVEST FROM THROUGH WAS TRACKED FROM PRI MARYPRODUCTSTOENDUSESTODUMPSORLANDlLLS.ICH OLSON 0ROJECTIONS OF WOOD HARVEST AND PRIMARY PRODUCT PRODUCTION WERE MADE USING THE MODELS THAT WERE USED FOR THE 2ESOURCE 0LANNING !CT 20! !SSESSMENT5PDATE(AYNESETAL)NCE4HESE PROJECTIONSWEREMADEBYTHE.ORTH!MERICAN0ULPAND 0APER .!0!0 MODEL AND 4IMBER !SSESSMENT -ARKET 4!--!4,!3 FOREST SECTOR MODELS (ISTORICAL INFOR MATIONANDPROJECTIONSFROM.!0!0AND4!--!4,!3 #ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS &IGURE#YCLINGOFCARBONTHROUGHWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS WERE PROCESSED BY THE 7//$#!2" MODEL TO MAKE CARBONESTIMATESTHROUGHFOR s NET CARBON SEQUESTERED IN PRODUCTS IN USE EACH YEAR CARBONINMINUSCARBONOUT s NETCARBONSEQUESTEREDINLANDlLLSORDUMPSEACHYEAR CARBONINMINUSCARBONOUT s CARBONRELEASEDBYBURNINGWHEREUSEABLEENERGYWAS PRODUCEDEACHYEARAND s CARBON RELEASED BY DECAY OR BURNING WITHOUT ENERGY PRODUCEDEACHYEAR 4HE .!0!0 MODEL SIMULATES OPERATION OF MARKETS ANDPROJECTSCONSUMPTIONOFPULPWOODUSEANDCHANGE OFPROCESSINGTECHNOLOGYANDCONSUMPTIONOFPULPAND PAPER )T PROJECTS CONSUMPTION OF HARDWOOD AND SOFT WOOD PULPWOOD FOUR CATEGORIES OF RECYCLED PAPER AND PRODUCTIONANDTRADEOFCATEGORIESOFPULPANDPAPER 4HE 4!-- MODEL AND THE !4,!3 TIMBER INVENTORY PROJECTION MODEL SIMULATE THE OPERATION OF SOLID WOOD MARKETS AND PROJECT CONSUMPTION OF TIMBER PRODUCTION OF LUMBER AND PANEL PRODUCTS AND END USE OF LUMBER ANDPANELSINCONSTRUCTIONMANUFACTURINGSHIPPINGAND OTHER APPLICATIONS SEE -ILLS ET AL THIS VOLUME 4HE 4!-- MODEL ALSO TRACKS IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF LOGS LUMBERANDPANELS4HE!4,!3MODELUSES.!0!0AND 4!-- CALCULATIONS OF TIMBER REMOVALS TO PROJECT 53 FORESTINVENTORY4HE7//$#!2"MODELISANADDITION TO THE 4!-- MODEL THAT TRACKS CARBON IN ALL TIMBER REMOVED FROM 53 LAND PLUS CARBON IN NET IMPORTS OF LOGSANDWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS 4HE FOLLOWING SECTIONS EXPLAIN THE METHODS USED TO TRACK THE mOW OF CARBON IN WOOD FROM FORESTS THROUGH PRODUCTSANDENDUSESTOLANDlLLSANDEMISSIONBYDECAY ORBURNING 53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n #ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS #ARBON4RANSFER &ROM&ORESTSTO(ARVESTED2OUNDWOOD 4HECARBONINWOODHARVESTEDEACHYEARWASESTIMATED THROUGH BEGINNING WITH WOOD HARVESTED IN AND FOLLOWING EACH YEARS WOOD HARVEST THROUGH TO ITS lNALDISPOSITION#ARBONINWOODRESIDUELEFTONHARVEST SITESISNOTINCLUDED#UBICFEETOFROUNDWOODREMOVEDIN EACHOFNINE53REGIONSISCONVERTEDTOWEIGHTOFCARBON USINGFACTORSSHOWNINTABLE"IRDSEY#ARBONIN LOGS IMPORTED IS ADDED TO THE ROUNDWOOD SOURCES AND CARBONINLOGSEXPORTEDISDEDUCTED4HEDISTRIBUTIONOF USES OF IMPORTED LOGS IS ASSUMED TO BE THE SAME AS THE DISTRIBUTIONOFUSESFORDOMESTICSAWLOGS &ROM2OUNDWOODTO0RIMARY0RODUCTSAND 2ESIDUE !NNUALHISTORICALESTIMATESANDPROJECTIONSOFDETAILED PRODUCTPRODUCTIONFROMTHE.!0!0AND4!--MODELS WEREUSEDTODIVIDEROUNDWOODCONSUMEDINTOPRIMARY PRODUCTWOODMILLRESIDUEANDPULPMILLRESIDUECATE GORIESTABLE)NMOSTAREASSOLIDWOODRESIDUESARE USEDALMOSTENTIRELYASRAWMATERIALSFOROTHERPROCESSES ORAREBURNEDFORENERGY/NLYASMALLPORTIONOFRESIDUES IS LEFT TO DECAY OR IS BURNED WITHOUT ENERGY 0OWELL ET AL#ARBONINIMPORTSOFPRIMARYSOLIDWOODAND PAPER PRODUCTS IS ADDED TO EACH PRODUCT CATEGORY AND CARBONINEXPORTSISDEDUCTED &ROM0RIMARY0RODUCTSTO%ND5SE0RODUCTS AND$ISPOSAL #ARBON IN SOLID WOOD PRODUCTS IS ESTIMATED FOR NINE ENDUSE CATEGORIES TO ESTIMATE THE TIME CARBON REMAINS SEQUESTEREDINTHOSEPRODUCTSTABLE4HE4!--PRO JECTIONSAREUSEDTODIVIDEPRODUCTSINTOTHESECATEGORIES 0ULPANDPAPERPRODUCTSARENOTTRACKEDTOENDUSESBUT THETIMEINUSEISESTIMATEDDIRECTLYFORVARIOUSPRIMARY PRODUCTS 7HEN PRODUCTS ARE PLACED IN END USES SUCH ASHOUSECONSTRUCTIONFORSOLIDWOODANDMAGAZINEPRO DUCTIONFORPAPERSOMEWOODORPAPERISDISCARDED7E ASSUMELOSSFORSOLIDWOODPRODUCTSANDFORPAPER ANDPAPERBOARDPRODUCTSASTHEYAREPLACEDINTOENDUSES SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION OR PUBLICATIONS ,OST OR DISCARDED WOODORPAPERISTRACKEDTORECYCLINGDISPOSALINLANDlLLS ORDUMPSOREMISSIONBYBURNING7EESTIMATE^PER CENTOFPAPERANDPAPERBOARDWASTEAFTERRECYCLINGWAS BURNEDINTHISPERCENTAGEINCREASESTOPERCENTFOR THEYEARANDTHEREAFTER53%0! 7E ADAPTED AN EQUATION USED BY 2OW AND 0HELPS TO ESTIMATETHEFRACTIONOFCARBONREMAININGINENDUSEFOR EACHYEARAFTERTHEPRODUCTWASPLACEDINUSE2OWAND 0HELPS P 4HE KEY PARAMETER IN THE EQUATION 53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n 3KOGAND.ICHOLSON 4ABLE #ARBON PER UNIT OF ROUNDWOOD BY REGION IN KGM LBFT 2EGION 0ACIlC.ORTHWESTWEST 0ACIlC.ORTHWESTEAST 0ACIlC3OUTHWEST .ORTHERN2OCKY-OUNTAINS 3OUTHERN2OCKY-OUNTAINS .ORTH#ENTRAL .ORTH%AST 3OUTH#ENTRAL 3OUTH%AST 3OFTWOOD FACTORS (ARDWOOD FACTORS ISTHEHALFLIFEFORCARBONINEACHENDUSETABLE4HE HALFLIFE IS THE TIME AFTER WHICH HALF THE CARBON PLACED IN USE IS NO LONGER IN USE $ISPOSITION OF CARBON AFTER USE INCLUDES RECYCLING DISPOSAL IN LANDlLL OR DUMP OR EMISSIONTOTHEATMOSPHEREBYBURNINGWITHORWITHOUT ENERGYPRODUCED 4HERATEOFRETIREMENTOFWOODFROMENDUSESISCON STANT FOR A PERIOD THEN ACCELERATES FOR A WHILE NEAR THE MEDIANLIFEANDlNALLYSLOWSDOWNAFTERTHEMEDIANLIFE 3OMEWOODORPAPERITEMSAREEXPECTEDTOHAVEVERYLONG LIVESINUSESSUCHASHISTORICALBUILDINGSBOOKSINLIBRAR IESANDANTIQUES4HERATEOFRETIREMENTOFPAPERPRODUCTS FROMUSEISVERYFASTTHEHALFLIFEISYEARORLESSEXCEPT FOR PAPER IN LONGLIVED PUBLICATIONS FREE SHEET PAPER WHICHHASAHALFLIFEOFYEARS #ARBON$ISPOSALIN$UMPSAND,ANDlLLS 4HELENGTHOFTIMEWOODASOPPOSEDTOPAPERREMAINS IN END USES MAY HAVE ONLY A MINOR EFFECT ON THE NET AMOUNT OF CARBON SEQUESTERED IN PRODUCTS IN THE LONG RUN )F WHEN TAKEN OUT OF USE PRODUCTS ARE DISPOSED OFINAMODERNLANDlLLTHELITERATUREINDICATESTHATTHEY WILLSTAYTHEREINDElNITELYWITHALMOSTNODECAY-ICALES AND3KOG7HATMAYBEMOREIMPORTANTFORCARBON SEQUESTRATIONOREMISSIONSISHOWMUCHWASTEWOODFROM DISCARDEDWOODPRODUCTSORDEMOLITIONISBURNEDEMIT TINGCARBONWITHORWITHOUTENERGYORHOWMUCHISRECY CLEDREDUCINGHARVESTFROMFORESTS 7OOD AND PAPER SENT TO LANDlLLS OR DUMPS PRIOR TO INCLUDESRESIDUEFROMSOLIDWOODMILLSINVERYLIM ITED AMOUNTS CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION WASTE AND DISCARDED PAPER PAPERBOARD AND SOLID WOOD PRODUCTS 4HESESAMEMATERIALSARESOMETIMESBURNEDWITHORWITH OUT ENERGY 0RIOR TO MOST MATERIALS WERE PLACED INDUMPSWHEREAPROPORTIONWASBURNEDANDCONTENTS WERE MORE EXPOSED TO OXYGEN AND DECAYED MORE COM 3KOGAND.ICHOLSON #ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS 4ABLE#ATEGORIESOFHISTORICALANDPROJECTEDWOODCONSUMPTIONUSEDTOCONSTRUCTESTIMATESOFWOODCARBONUSEDISPOSALAND DECAY (ISTORICALESTIMATESn 0ROJECTIONSn 3OLIDWOODPRODUCTSANDWOODMILLRESIDUE ,UMBER 3TRUCTURALPANELING .ONSTRUCTURALPANELING 2AILWAYTIES -ISCELLANEOUSPRODUCTS 2OUNDWOODFORFUELWOOD 7OODANDBARKMILLRESIDUE (ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODLUMBER (ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODPLYWOOD (ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODINRECONSTITUTEDPANELS (ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODMISCELLANEOUSPRODUCTS (ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODFORROUNDWOODFORFUELWOOD (ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODWOODMILLRESIDUE (ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODBARKMILLRESIDUE 0APERANDPAPERBOARDPRODUCTSANDPULPMILLRESIDUE 0APERWITHLONGUSELIFE 0APERWITHSHORTUSELIFE 0APERBOARD 3LUDGEANDPULPLIQUOR .EWSPRINT #OATEDFREESHEET 5NCOATEDFREESHEET #OATEDGROUNDWOOD 4ISSUEANDSANITARY 3PECIALTY +RAFTPACKAGING ,INERBOARD #ORRUGATINGMEDIUM 3OLIDBLEACHEDBOARD 2ECYCLEDBOARD #ONSTRUCTIONPAPERANDBOARD $ISSOLVINGPULP 7OODANDBARKWASTE 3LUDGEANDPULPLIQUOR 4ABLE%NDUSECATEGORIESUSEDTOESTIMATETIMETHATCAR BONREMAINSSEQUESTERED 4ABLE !SSUMED DURATION OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN END USESOFWOODANDPAPER 3OLIDWOODPRODUCTS 0APERANDPAPERBOARD %NDUSE -ULTIFAMILYHOUSING -OBILEHOMES 2ESIDENTIALUPKEEPANDREPAIR .ONRESIDENTIALCONSTRUCTION -ANUFACTURING 3HIPPING &URNITURE 2AILROADTIES -ISCELLANEOUSUSES #ONSTRUCTIONWASTE $EMOLITIONWASTE 5SEANDDISPOSALCATEGORIES .EWSPRINT "OXES /FlCEPAPER #OATEDPAPER 2ECYCLEDPAPERCATEGORIES /LDNEWSPAPER /LDCORRUGATEDCONTAINERS -IXEDPAPER 0ULPSUBSTITUTESANDHIGH GRADEDEINKING 3INGLEFAMILYHOMESPRE 3INGLEFAMILYHOMESPOST -ULTIFAMILYHOMES -OBILEHOMES .ONRESIDENTIALCONSTRUCTION 0ALLETS -ANUFACTURING &URNITURE 2AILROADTIES 0APERFREESHEET 0APERALLOTHER PLETELY,EGISLATIONTHENREQUIREDTHATDUMPSBEPHASED OUT BY 3INCE THEN MATERIALS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN LANDlLLS -ATERIALS IN LANDlLLS ARE PERIODICALLY COVERED WHICH PREVENTS OXYGEN FROM ENTERING &OR DUMPS WE (ALFLIFEOFCARBONYEARS ESTIMATETHATPERCENTOFWASTEWASBURNED7EASSUME THE REMAINING WASTE DECAYED EVENLY DURING A YEAR PERIODWITHAGREATERPROPORTIONOFCARBONBEINGRELEASED AS#/THANAS#(BECAUSEOFAGREATERMIXOFOXYGEN WITHTHEMATERIALS 53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n #ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS 3KOGAND.ICHOLSON 4HEPATTERNOFLANDlLLDECAYISMARKEDLYDIFFERENTFOR WOODTHANFORPAPER!RELATIVELYSHORTTIMEAFTERMATERIAL ISPLACEDINALANDlLLTHEMATERIALISCOVEREDANDOXYGEN IS PREVENTED FROM ENTERING THE LANDlLL 7HILE OXYGEN IS AVAILABLE WHITEROT FUNGUS CAN DECAY LIGNIN TO A LIM ITED EXTENT (OWEVER THE OXYGEN IS CONSUMED RAPIDLY !FTERTHEOXYGENISGONEONLYANAEROBICBACTERIAREMAIN 4HESEORGANISMSCANNOTBREAKDOWNLIGNINBUTTHEYCAN BREAKDOWNEXPOSEDCELLULOSEANDHEMICELLULOSE(OW EVERANAEROBICBACTERIACANNOTREACHCELLULOSEORHEMICEL LULOSETHATISENCLOSEDINLIGNIN(AMETAL7ANGET AL4HISMEANSTHATVERYLITTLEDECAYOFSOLIDWOOD OCCURS.EWSPRINTWHICHHASALIGNINCONTENTOFTO PERCENTISALSOVERYRESISTANTTODECAY/THERPAPERSWITH LESSLIGNINARESOMEWHATMORESUBJECTTODECAY)NGEN ERALMUCHLESSTHANHALFOFTHECARBONINWOODORPAPER ISEVERCONVERTEDTO#/OR#(TABLE-ICALESAND 3KOG .OTONLYISTHEDECAYOFWOODANDPAPERHIGHLYLIM ITEDINLANDlLLSBUTTHEPROPORTIONOFCARBONEMITTEDAS #/ISLIMITEDTO^PERCENTVERSUS^PERCENTAS#( DUETOTHELIMITATIONOFOXYGENANDTHEGREATERPRODUC TIONOF#(BYANAEROBICBACTERIA(ALFOFTHETOTAL#/IS EMITTEDIN^YEARSWHILEHALFTHETOTAL#(ISEMITTEDIN ^YEARS-ICALESAND3KOG 4HE SHIFT TO GREATER #( PRODUCTION IN LANDlLLS COM PAREDWITHTHATINDUMPSISIMPORTANTBECAUSE#(IS TIMESMOREEFFECTIVETHAN#/ASAHEATTRAPPINGGREEN HOUSEGAS)NOURTRACKINGOF#(PRODUCTIONWEASSUME OFTHE#( ISCONVERTEDTO#/BYMICROORGANISMS ASITMOVESOUTOFTHELANDlLL7EASSUMETHATTHEPROPOR TIONOFLANDlLL#(THATISBURNEDWILLINCREASEFROMTHE CURRENTLEVELTOBY 4ABLE%STIMATEDMAXIMUMPROPORTIONSOFWOODANDPAPER THATARECONVERTEDTO#/OR#(INLANDlLLS 0RODUCTTYPE -AXIMUMCARBONCONVERTED 3OLIDWOOD .EWSPRINT #OATEDPAPER "OXBOARD /FlCEPAPER WHERE#)#ISNETSEQUESTRATIONTOTHEINVENTORYOFCARBON IN THE FOREST PER YEAR CARBON INVENTORY CHANGE )T ACCOUNTS FOR ANY EMISSIONS FROM DECAY OF DEAD TREES OR ORGANICMATERIALINTHESOIL)TALSOACCOUNTSFOREMISSIONS FROM DECAY OR BURNING OF LOGGING RESIDUE LEFT AFTER HAR VESTING (0IS HARVEST AND REMOVAL OF WOOD CARBON FOR PRODUCTS AND WOOD BURNING PER YEAR 7E ONLY INCLUDE BURNINGOFWOODAFTERITHASBEENHARVESTEDANDREMOVED FROMTHEFOREST%MISSIONSFROMFORESTlRESAREINCLUDED INTHEESTIMATEOFNETSEQUESTRATIONINFORESTS#)#(AR VESTINGFORPRODUCTSCOULDREDUCEEMISSIONSFROMlREAND INCREASESEQUESTRATIONINPRODUCTS4HISIMPORTANTEFFECT SHOULDBETHESUBJECTOFFURTHERRESEARCH 7E NOW FOCUS ON THE STOCK OF CARBON IN THE ATMO SPHERE AND ESTIMATE HOW THE FOREST SECTOR ADDS TO OR DECREASESTHESIZEOFTHISSTOCK7EINCLUDETHEEMISSIONS FROM IMPORTS IN OUR VARIABLES FOR EMISSIONS FROM THE 5NITED3TATES4HERATEOFREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHERE PERYEARMAYBEEXPRESSEDASFOLLOWSPOSITIVETERMSREP RESENTREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHERENEGATIVETERMSREP RESENTADDITIONSTOTHEATMOSPHERE #ALCULATING.ET2EMOVALOF#ARBONFROMTHE !TMOSPHERETOTHE5NITED3TATES /NE OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY IS TO ESTIMATE THE COM BINED EFFECT OF THE FORESTRY SECTOR ON NET REMOVAL OF CARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHERETHROUGHTHEYEAR4HIS INCLUDESSEQUESTRATIONTOFORESTSPRODUCTSANDLANDlLLS ANDEMISSIONSBYBURNINGANDDECAYINCLUDINGEMISSIONS FROMIMPORTEDPRODUCTS4HISSECTIONWILLSHOWWHYNET ANNUAL SEQUESTRATION OF CARBON IN 53 STOCKS FORESTS PRODUCTSLANDlLLSISGREATERTHANTHENETREMOVALTOTHE 5NITED3TATESFROMTHEATMOSPHEREBYTHEAMOUNTOFNET IMPORTS 'ROSS SEQUESTRATION OF CARBON TO FOREST TREES AND SOIL PER YEAR ' MAY BE EXPRESSED AS THE CHANGE IN CARBON INVENTORYINFORESTSDURINGAYEARPLUSCARBONINMATERIAL HARVESTEDFORPRODUCTS '#)#(0 53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n ;= 3'7"%#/%#( ;= WHERE3ISNETREMOVALOFCARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHERE' ISGROSSSEQUESTRATIONOFCARBONINFORESTTREESANDSOILPER YEAR INCLUDING ALL GROWTH EVEN THAT WHICH IS LATER HAR VESTEDDURINGTHEYEARFORPRODUCTSANDFUEL7"ISEMIS SIONSOFCARBONAS#/FROMBURNINGWOODPAPEROR#/ FROMBURNING#(FORENERGYPRODUCTION%#/ISEMIS SIONS OF CARBON AS #/ FROM DECAY OR BURNING WITHOUT ENERGY AND %#( IS EMISSIONS OF CARBON AS #( FROM DECAYINLANDlLLSNOTINCLUDING#(EMITTEDFROMWOOD PRODUCTSINOTHERPLACESSUCHASSEWAGESYSTEMS 4HE FOLLOWING STEPS CONVERT EQUATION ;= WHICH EXPRESSES ANNUAL NET CARBON REMOVAL FROM THE ATMO SPHERETOTHE5NITED3TATESINTERMSOFFORESTSEQUESTRA TION AND EMISSIONS INTO AN EQUATION THAT EXPRESSES THE SAME REMOVAL USING VARIABLES FOR THE ANNUAL CHANGE IN STOCKOFCARBONINPRODUCTSINUSE0ANDSTOCKOFPROD UCTCARBONINLANDlLLS,,ET7"7"7//$7"#( WHERE7"7//$ISCARBONRELEASEDFROMBURNINGWOOD ANDPAPERAND7"#( ISCARBONRELEASEDFROMBURNING #(RELEASEDFROMLANDlLLS 3KOGAND.ICHOLSON #ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS 7E MAY EXPRESS THE NET SEQUESTRATION TO THE STOCK OF PRODUCTS IN USE 0 AS THE AMOUNT HARVESTED MINUS THE REMOVALFROMPRODUCTSINUSEPLUSNETIMPORTS 0(0n3,n7"7//$)n% ;= WHERE3,ISTHEAMOUNTOFCARBONSHIFTEDTOLANDlLLSFROM THESTOCKOFPRODUCTSINUSEEACHYEAR 4HENETSEQUESTRATIONOFCARBONTOLANDlLLSEACHYEAR IS THE AMOUNT SHIFTED FROM PRODUCTS IN USE 3, MINUS RELEASES ,3,n7"#(%#/%#( ;= "Y SOLVING EQUATION ;= FOR 3, SUBSTITUTING IN EQUATION ;=ANDSOLVINGFOR(0WEHAVE (00,7"%#/%#(n)n% ;= "YSUBSTITUTINGEQUATIONS;=AND;=INEQUATION;=WE OBTAINANEXPRESSIONFORTOTALNETSEQUESTRATIONPERYEAR THATINCLUDESTHEEFFECTOFFORESTGROWTH#)#NETSEQUES TRATION TO PRODUCTS IN USE AND LANDlLLS 0 AND , AND EMISSIONS FROM BURNING AND LANDlLL DECAY 7" %#/ AND%#( 3 #)# 0 n )n% , 7" %#/ %#( 7"%#/%#( ;= )FWEFOCUSONTHEAMOUNTSOFCARBONmOWSRATHERTHAN THEDIFFERENTEFFECTSOF#/AND#(INTHEATMOSPHERE WEMAYSIMPLIFYTHECALCULATIONOFCARBONREMOVALFROM THEATMOSPHERE 3#)#0,n)n% ;= %QUATION;=INDICATESTHATNETREMOVALFROMTHEATMO SPHEREISTHESUMOFNETSEQUESTRATIONTOCARBONINFORESTS NET SEQUESTRATION TO PRODUCTS IN USE AND NET SEQUESTRA TIONSTOLANDlLLSMINUSNETIMPORTS !NNUALCHANGEINCARBONINSTOCKSINTHE5NITED3TATES MAYBEEXPRESSEDAS #HANGEINSTOCKS#)#0, ;= 4OINTERPRETTHEDIFFERENCEBETWEENEQUATIONS;=AND ;=RECALLFROMEQUATION;=THATPRODUCTSINUSE0ISHAR VEST(0INCREASEDBYNETIMPORTSMINUSEMISSIONSAND SHIFTSTOLANDlLLS3OTHEANNUALCHANGEINSTOCKSINCLUDES NETIMPORTSWHILEANNUALREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHERE DOESNOT %QUATION ;= DOES NOT INCLUDE CARBON EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS BURNED FOR ENERGY IN FOREST SECTOR ACTIVITIES 4HESEQUESTRATIONCALCULATEDHEREISTHEDIVIDENDOBTAINED BYTHEFORESTRYACTIVITIESOFTHESECTOR)FONEWERETOCOM PARECARBONSEQUESTRATIONEFFECTSBETWEENAFORESTANDA NONFORESTINDUSTRYTHATBOTHPROVIDEDSAYHOUSINGCOM PONENTSONEWOULDNEEDTOACCOUNTFORNOTONLYTHEFOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS OF THESE INDUSTRIES BUT ALSO ANY CARBON SEQUESTRATION4HENETSEQUESTRATIONEFFECTOFUSINGWOOD HOUSINGCOMPONENTSISBOLSTEREDBYTHEFORESTREGROWTH AND PRODUCT OR LANDlLL SEQUESTRATION EFFECTS CALCULATED HERE 3OME MAY ASK WHY WOOD BURNING DOES NOT SEEM TO ADDTOSEQUESTRATIONSINCEITREPLACESFOSSILFUELSANDTREES GROWTOABSORBTHECARBONEMITTEDBYWOODBURNING4HE ANSWERLIESINTHEFACTTHATEQUATION;=ONLYINDICATESTHE NET SEQUESTRATION IN ONE YEAR AND DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR HOW THE VALUE FOR CARBON INVENTORY CHANGE #)# MAY BE HIGHER IN A FUTURE YEAR OR YEARS AS A RESULT OF HAR VESTING AND BURNING WOOD IN THE CURRENT YEAR!FOREST GROWTHANDYIELDMODELISNEEDEDTOEVALUATETHEDEGREE TO WHICH THE #)# VALUE IS HIGHER IN THE FUTURE DUE TO HARVESTANDUSEOFWOODFORENERGYINTHECURRENTYEAR )NTHEANALYSISFORTHISSTUDYWEUSEDTHE!4,!3INVEN TORY GROWTH AND YIELD MODEL TO CALCULATE ACTUAL FUTURE INCREASESINFORESTGROWTH #ALCULATINGTHE'REENHOUSE'AS%FFECTOF .ET#ARBON2EMOVALTOTHE5NITED3TATES 4HEGREENHOUSEGASEFFECTOFNETCARBONSEQUESTRATION BY THE FOREST SECTOR IS DETERMINED IN PART BY WHETHER CARBONISEMITTEDTOTHEATMOSPHEREAS#/ORAS#(! 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4ABLE%STIMATESOFHARVESTEDWOODCARBONSEQUESTEREDEMITTEDANDCONSUMEDIN53ANNUALLYIN4GHISTORICALRECONSTRUCTION TOWITHPROJECTIONSTO;20!"ASECASE= 9EAR !DDEDTO PRODUCTSIN USE !DDEDTO LANDlLLS %MITTEDBY BURNINGWITH ENERGY %MITTEDBYDECAY ORBURNINGWITHOUT ENERGY 4OTAL CONSUMED EACHYEAR (ISTORICALRECONSTRUCTION "ASE#ASEPROJECTIONS AS#(CONVERTINGITTO#/COULDHAVEANOTABLEEFFECTIN RAISINGTHECARBONSEQUESTRATIONBYTHEFORESTRYSECTOR 2ESULTS 3EVERALKEYFACTORSDETERMINETHEPATTERNOFHISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND EMISSIONS FROM WOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS 4HETOTALCARBONCONTAINEDINROUNDWOODHARVESTPLUS NET IMPORTS DECLINED BETWEEN AND FROM TO 4GYEAR IN PART AS A RESULT OF STEADILY DECREASING FUELWOOD USE !FTER THE S THE AMOUNT OF CARBON IN ROUNDWOODDOUBLEDBY4GYEARTO4GYEAR 4OTALCARBONINROUNDWOODANDNETIMPORTSISPROJECTED TOINCREASETO4GYEARBYASINDICATEDUSINGTHE 20!"ASECASEPROJECTIONSFORTHE53FORESTSECTOR TABLElG 3INCETHEEARLYSTHEUSEOFROUNDWOODINPRIMARY PRODUCTS LUMBER PANELS PAPER AND PAPERBOARD FUEL HASSHIFTEDFROMSOLIDWOODPRODUCTSANDFUELWOODTOA MIXOFPRODUCTSTHATINCLUDESANINCREASINGPROPORTIONOF PAPERPRODUCTSANDMOREBURNINGOFRESIDUEFROMSOLID WOODPRODUCTSMILLSANDBLACKLIQUORFROMPULPMILLS %VEN THOUGH CARBON HELD IN SOLID WOOD PRODUCTS IS PROJECTED TO DOUBLE BETWEEN AND TO 4GCARBONINPULPWOODUSEDINPAPERPRODUCTIONWILL 53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n &IGURE!NNUALNETSEQUESTRATIONOFHARVESTEDWOODCARBON INPRODUCTSANDLANDlLLSANDANNUALEMISSIONSFROMWOODBURN INGWITHENERGYANDWOODANDPAPERDECAYANDOTHERBURNINGIN THE5NITED3TATESTOWITHPROJECTIONSTO INCREASEPERCENTTO4GBY"URNINGOFWOOD RESIDUE AND BLACK LIQUOR HAS ALSO INCREASED RELATIVE TO SOLIDWOODUSESFROM4GINTO4GINAND WILLBE4GIN&UELWOODUSEREACHINGALOWOF 4GINISPROJECTEDTOSURPASSITSLEVELBY ANDREMAINSLIGHTLYHIGHERTHANBURNINGOFWOODRESIDUE ANDBLACKLIQUORlG 3KOGAND.ICHOLSON #ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS 4ABLE5NITED3TATESNETCARBONACCUMULATIONEMISSIONNETIMPORTSANDREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHEREBYYEARA .ETCARBONmUX4G #HANGEINFORESTS#)# #HANGEINPRODUCTSINUSE0 #HANGEINLANDlLLS, 7OODBURNING7" %MITTED#/%#/ %MITTED#(FROMLANDlLLS%#( #HANGEINSTOCKOFCARBONB .ETIMPORTSOFWOODPRODUCTS PAPERANDPAPERBOARD)% 2EMOVALFROMATMOSPHERE3C 2EMOVALFROMATMOSPHEREIN#/EQUIVALENTS3GD A"ASECASEPROJECTIONS B#HANGEINSTOCKOFCARBON#)#0, C3#)#0)%,NETCARBONREMOVALFROMATMOSPHERE D3 #)#0)%,n%#( NETCARBONREMOVALFROMATMOSPHEREIN#/ EQUIVALENTS G /VERALLTHERATEOFNETSEQUESTRATIONOFCARBONTOPROD UCTSINUSEANDLANDlLLSINCREASED^PERCENTBETWEEN ANDFROMTO4GYEAR4HISNETSEQUES TRATIONREmECTSDISPOSALANDDECAYOFPRODUCTSTAKENOUT OF USE SENT TO LANDlLLS OR BURNED AND DECAY OF WOOD AND PAPER IN LANDlLLS 4HIS INCREASE WAS DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASE IN PRODUCT CONSUMPTION ROUNDWOOD USE INCREASED PERCENT BETWEEN AND TO s M TO s FT (EATH AND "IRDSEY )T IS ALSO DUE TO A SHARP INCREASE IN THE RATE OF ACCUMU LATION OF CARBON IN LANDlLLS WITH THE SHIFT FROM DUMPS TO LANDlLLS IN THE S AND S .ET ACCUMULATION IN DUMPS OR LANDlLLS INCREASED FROM 4GYEAR IN TO 4GYEAR IN 4HIS INCREASE IN NET ACCUMULA TIONWASDUETOVIRTUALELIMINATIONOFOPENAIRBURNINGIN DUMPSANDADECREASEINTHERATEOFDECAYOFWOODAND PAPERINLANDlLLSCOMPAREDWITHTHATINDUMPS 5SINGTHE20!"ASECASEPROJECTIONSFORTHEFOREST PRODUCTS SECTOR THE ANNUAL RATE OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION TO FOREST TREES UNDERSTORY mOOR AND SOIL IS PROJECTED TO DECLINEFROM4GINTO4GINTABLE "IRDSEYAND(EATH4HISTRENDREmECTSASLOWDOWN INTHERATEOFACCUMULATIONINTHE.ORTHASFORESTSREACH ANAGEOFSLOWERTREEGROWTHANDSLOWERINCREASESINSOIL CARBONANDAREDUCEDHARVESTONPUBLICLANDINTHE7EST ALONGWITHMOREINTENSIVELYMANAGEDAREASOFFORMEROLD GROWTH)TALSOREmECTSINCREASEDMANAGEMENTINTENSITYIN THE3OUTHWHEREACCUMULATIONISBALANCEDBYREMOVALS "IRDSEYAND(EATH 4HEANNUALRATEOFCARBONACCUMULATIONINLANDlLLSOR DUMPSANDPRODUCTSISPROJECTEDTOINCREASEFROM4GIN TO4GIN4HISISDUEENTIRELYTOTHEINCREASING &IGURE)NITIALPRODUCTUSESOFROUNDWOODHARVESTEDINTHE 5NITED3TATESTOWITHPROJECTIONSTO RATEOFACCUMULATIONINLANDlLLS4HENETANNUALSEQUES TRATIONTOPRODUCTSINUSEACTUALLYDECREASESSLIGHTLYFROM 4G IN TO 4G IN 4HIS DECLINE IS DUE IN PART TO THE INCREASING PROPORTION OF WOOD THAT IS USED INPAPERPRODUCTSWHICHHAVEASHORTERUSELIFETHANDO SOLIDWOODPRODUCTS /URESTIMATEOF4GCARBONADDEDTOLANDlLLSDUMPS ANDPRODUCTSINISCLOSETOTHEESTIMATEOF7INJUMET ALOF4GSTOREDINCOMMODITIESFORlVEYEARSOR MOREFORTHE5NITED3TATES #ARBON EMISSIONS FROM BURNING WITH ENERGY PRODUC TIONAREPROJECTEDTOINCREASEASARESULTOFNOTABLEINCREASES 53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n #ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS INBURNINGOFBLACKLIQUORANDROUNDWOODDIRECTLYFROM FORESTSFORFUEL"LACKLIQUORANDROUNDWOODCARBONEMIS SIONS INCREASE FROM TO 4G BETWEEN AND "URNING OF MILL RESIDUE AND OTHER WOOD OR PAPER WASTE INCREASES EMISSIONS FROM TO 4G DURING THE SAME PERIOD%MISSIONSFROMBURNINGWITHOUTENERGYPRODUC TIONANDFROMDECAYAREPROJECTEDTOINCREASEFROM4G TO4GBETWEENAND)NTOTALCARBONEMISSIONS INCREASEFROM4GTO4GBETWEENAND /URESTIMATEOF4GOFTOTALEMISSIONSINISIDEN TICALTOTHEESTIMATEOF7INJUMETALFOREMISSIONS FROMALLSOURCESIN )NWEWEREADDINGCARBONTOTHEWOODANDPAPER PRODUCTSTOCKSATTHERATEOF4GPERYEAR4HISRATEISPRO JECTEDTOINCREASETO4GPERYEARBYTABLESAND )F WE ADD SEQUESTRATION TO FOREST TREES UNDERSTORY mOOR AND SOILS THE RATE OF SEQUESTRATION TO 53 CARBON STOCKSIS4GYRINAND4GYEARBY 4HEANNUALNETREMOVALOFCARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHERE TOTHE5NITED3TATESISSLIGHTLYLESSTHANTHEACCUMULATION INSTOCKSDUETONETIMPORTSSUPPLEMENTING53STOCKS .ETREMOVALOFCARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHEREIS4GFOR AND IS PROJECTED TO DECLINE TO 4G BY .ET REMOVALMEASUREDIN#/EQUIVALENTEFFECTONTHEATMO SPHERE IS 4G FOR AND IS PROJECTED TO DECLINE TO 4G BY )N THE TOTAL CARBON REMOVAL FROM THEATMOSPHERETO53FORESTSANDFORESTPRODUCTSWAS PERCENT OF THE 53 FOSSIL FUEL CARBON EMISSIONS LEVEL OF 4G /UR ESTIMATES OF THE CUMULATIVE FATE OF CARBON IN THE 5NITED 3TATES SINCE INCLUDING NET IMPORTS ARE SHOWN IN lGURE 7E ESTIMATE TOTAL CARBON IN WOOD AND BARK USED FOR PRODUCTS AND FUEL BETWEEN AND AT0GWHERE0GISBILLIONMETRICTONS7EESTI MATE 0G ACCUMULATED IN PRODUCTS AND LANDlLLS 0G IN WOOD AND BARK BURNED FOR ENERGY AND 0G IN EMISSIONS4OTALACCUMULATIONOVERTHEPROJECTIONPERIOD FROM TO IS 0G !CCUMULATION IN PRODUCTS ANDLANDlLLSISPROJECTEDTOBE0GBETWEENAND FORATOTALOF0GOVERTHEPERIODTO 3KOGAND.ICHOLSON CARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHERE&ORESTPRODUCTANDLANDlLL STOCKSINCREASED4GYRINWHILENETSEQUESTRATION TOFORESTSPRODUCTSANDLANDlLLSWAS4GYR4HISDIF FERENCEISBECAUSENETSEQUESTRATIONTOSTOCKSINCLUDESNET IMPORTSWHILEANNUALREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHEREDOES NOT.ETREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHEREMAYBEINCREASED BYBURNING#(FROMLANDlLLSTOCONVERTITTO#/WHICH HASLESSGREENHOUSEEFFECT 4HE CHOICE OF ACCOUNTING METHOD MEASURING STOCK CHANGES OR MEASURING REMOVALS FROM THE ATMOSPHERE COULD DETERMINE HOW A COUNTRY WOULD COUNT CARBON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS IN OFFSETTING GREENHOUSE GAS EMIS SIONS FOR THE PURPOSE OF MEETING GOALS UNDER INTERNA TIONAL AGREEMENTS 4HIS IN TURN COULD INmUENCE FOREST AND INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT IN THE 53 )F CREDIT IS GIVEN FOR INCREASING STOCKS A COUNTRY WOULD SEEK TO BOOST IMPORTSANDRESTRAINEXPORTS)FCREDITISGIVENFORINCREAS ING REMOVALS FROM THE ATMOSPHERE THERE WOULD BE AN EMPHASIS ON INCREASING CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN FORESTS ANDINPRODUCTSFROMDOMESTICFORESTSTHATMAYBEAIDED BYINCREASINGEXPORTSANDRESTRAININGIMPORTS4HEREMAY ALSOBEMOREEMPHASISONDECREASINGMETHANEEMISSIONS FROMFORESTPRODUCTSDECAYINLANDlLLS "YRECOGNIZINGWHATHASCAUSEDCHANGESINSEQUESTRA TION TO CARBON STOCKS IN WOOD PRODUCTS AND FORESTS WE CAN IDENTIFY SOME WAYS SEQUESTRATION CAN BE INCREASED EVENMORE7ECANINCREASESEQUESTRATIONTOTHESTOCKOF CARBONINPRODUCTSLANDlLLSANDFORESTSWHILEMAINTAIN INGTHESAMEAGGREGATECONSUMPTIONOFWOODANDPAPER PRODUCTSBYTHEFOLLOWINGACTIONS s SHIFTINGPRODUCTMIXTOAGREATERPROPORTIONOFLIGNIN CONTAINING SOLID WOOD PAPER AND PAPERBOARD PROD UCTSWHICHDECAYLESSINLANDlLLS s INCREASINGPRODUCTRECYCLINGAND s INCREASINGPRODUCTUSELIFE #ONCLUSIONS #ARBON DIOXIDE EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS WOULD ALSO BE REDUCED BY THE ACTIONS NOTED %MISSIONS WOULD ALSO BE REDUCED BY BURNING MORE LANDlLL #( IN PLACE OF FOSSIL FUELS )T MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INCREASE SEQUESTRATION WHILE INCREASING PRODUCT CONSUMPTION ABOVE PROJECTED LEVELS BUT THIS WOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CERTAIN EFFECTS OF SUCHANINCREASENOTASSESSEDINTHISSTUDY /URPROJECTIONSINDICATEWEHAVEACCUMULATED0G OFCARBONINTHESTOCKOFWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSINUSE ANDINLANDlLLSANDDUMPSINTHE5NITED3TATESBETWEEN AND4HISISSUBSTANTIALCOMPAREDWITHTHE STOCKOFCARBONINFORESTTREES0GANDINFORESTSOIL 0G !NNUALSEQUESTRATIONTOPRODUCTCARBONSTOCKSINTHE 5NITED3TATESARESLIGHTLYGREATERTHANANNUALREMOVALOF s (OWMUCHWOULDANNUALCARBONINVENTORYCHANGEIN THEFORESTINCREASEINTHEFUTUREASARESULTOFINCREASED HARVESTTODAY s (OW MUCH WOULD MANUFACTURING EMISSIONS CHANGE DUE TO SUBSTITUTION OF WOOD AND PAPER FOR NONWOOD PRODUCTS s (OWMUCHWOULDEMISSIONSFROMFORESTlRESDECREASE DUETOREDUCTIONINFUELSAVAILABLEFORlRES 53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n 3KOGAND.ICHOLSON !CKNOWLEDGMENTS 4HERESEARCHFORTHISPAPERWASSUPPORTEDINPARTBY AGRANTFROMTHE%NVIRONMENTAL0ROTECTION!GENCY/FlCE OF0OLICY0LANNINGAND!NALYSIS ,ITERATURE#ITED 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