#ARBON #(!04%2 +ENNETH

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#(!04%2
#ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS
+ENNETH%3KOG53$!&OREST3ERVICE&OREST0RODUCTS,ABORATORY
'ERALDINE!.ICHOLSON-ARYLAND%NERGY!DMINISTRATION
)NTRODUCTION
2ECOGNITIONTHATINCREASINGLEVELSOF#/INTHEATMO
SPHEREWILLAFFECTTHEGLOBALCLIMATEHASSPURREDRESEARCH
INTO REDUCING GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS AND INCREASING
CARBON SEQUESTRATION 4HE MAIN NONHUMAN SOURCES OF
ATMOSPHERIC#/AREANIMALRESPIRATIONANDDECAYOFBIO
MASS 53 #ONGRESS /4! (OWEVER INCREASES IN
ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS ARE ATTRIBUTED MAINLY TO FOSSIL FUEL
BURNINGANDLANDUSECHANGE7HILEEFFORTSTOHOLDDOWN
EMISSIONS OF #/ CONTINUE INCREASES IN #/ EMISSIONS
CANALSOBEOFFSETTOADEGREEBYACCUMULATIONINCARBON
SINKSSUCHASPLANTBIOMASSANDOCEANS)TISTHEREFOREPRU
DENTTOFOCUSRESEARCHEFFORTSBOTHONINCREASINGCARBONIN
SINKSANDREDUCINGCARBONEMISSIONS
)N 53 #/ EMISSIONS WERE 4G CARBON
EQUIVALENT#LINTONAND'OREWHERE4GISMILLION
METRICTONS7OODANDPAPERPRODUCTSPLAYANIMPORTANT
ROLEINMITIGATINGTHESEEMISSIONSBYSEQUESTERINGCARBON
4HERE ARE CURRENTLY LARGE STOCKS OF CARBON IN FORESTS IN
WOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSINUSEANDINDUMPSANDLAND
lLLS4HESIZEOFTHESECARBONSTOCKSISINCREASING)N
APPROXIMATELY 4G OF CARBON OR PERCENT OF THE
LEVELOF53EMISSIONSWASHARVESTEDANDREMOVEDFROM
FORESTSFORPRODUCTS)FASUBSTANTIALPORTIONOFTHISCARBON
COULD BE PREVENTED FROM RETURNING TO THE ATMOSPHERE
IT COULD BE A NOTABLE CONTRIBUTION TO MITIGATING CARBON
BUILDUPINTHEATMOSPHERE
7EUSETHETERMSEQUESTRATIONTOREFERTOTHENETSEQUES
TRATIONOVERAPERIODOFTIMEINASTOCKOFCARBONCARBON
INFORESTSCARBONINFORESTPRODUCTSINUSEINCLUDINGNET
IMPORTS OR CARBON IN FOREST PRODUCTS IN LANDlLLS 4HIS
EXPANDSTHEUSEOFTHETERMBEYONDITSCOMMONUSEREFER
RINGTONETSEQUESTRATIONOFCARBONTOFORESTS
#ARBONSEQUESTRATIONTOWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSHAS
BEENASSESSEDINSEVERALOTHERSTUDIES3OMESTUDIESASSESS
CARBONSEQUESTRATIONFORARANGEOFHYPOTHETICALCONDITIONS
OFFORESTGROWTHHARVESTENDUSEANDDISPOSAL3CHLAMA
DINGERAND-ARLAND!WORLDWIDESTUDYBY7INJUM
ETALESTIMATESNETmOWSOFCARBONOUTOFFORESTSAND
INTOPRODUCTSUSINGTHETWOACCOUNTINGFRAMEWORKSUSED
IN THIS STUDYˆTHE STOCK CHANGE METHOD AND THE ATMO
SPHERICmOWMETHOD4HEYUSESIMPLIlEDASSUMPTIONSTO
MAKEESTIMATESOFNETSTOCKCHANGESANDNETEMISSIONSTO
THEATMOSPHEREBYWORLDREGIONANDFORSELECTEDCOUNTRIES
4HEY INCLUDE ESTIMATES OF LOGGING RESIDUE AND ASSUMED
DECAY4HEIRRESULTSASNOTEDBELOWARECLOSETOOURSEVEN
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
THOUGH THEIR METHODS ARE VERY DIFFERENT /THER STUDIES
FOCUSINGONTHE5NITED3TATESSIMILARTOTHISONEESTIMATE
THE ACTUAL STOCKS AND mOWS OF CARBON FROM 53 FORESTS
TOPRODUCTSINUSETODUMPSORLANDlLLSANDTOBURNING
ANDEMISSIONSFROMDECAYINCLUDINGRECONSTRUCTIONOFHIS
TORICALmOWSANDPROJECTIONS(EATHETAL2OWAND
0HELPS4HISSTUDYPRESENTSSIMILARRESULTSWITHTHREE
IMPROVEMENTS USE OF GREATER DETAIL IN THE CHANGING
COMPOSITIONOFENDUSESOFWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS
INCLUSION OF NET IMPORTS OF WOOD AND PAPER PRODUCTS IN
CARBON SEQUESTRATION ESTIMATES AND USE OF NEW MUCH
LOWER DECAY ESTIMATES FOR WOOD AND PAPER IN LANDlLLS
INCLUDING SEPARATE ESTIMATES OF #/ AND #( PORTIONS
4HESEIMPROVEMENTSHELPPROVIDEACLEARERUNDERSTANDING
OFHOWSEQUESTRATIONTOPRODUCTSMAYCHANGE
/UR PURPOSE IS TO SHOW AN INDEPTH METHOD OF PRO
VIDINGHISTORICALESTIMATESANDPROJECTIONSOF53CARBON
SEQUESTRATIONTOWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS7ECOMPARE
THOSEESTIMATESTOAMOUNTSSEQUESTEREDIN53FORESTSAN
ESTIMATEOFCARBONSTOCKCHANGEINTHE5NITED3TATES7E
ALSOSHOWHOWAMOUNTSUSEDTOESTIMATETHENETSEQUES
TRATIONINPRODUCTSANDFORESTSEACHYEARMAYBEUSEDTO
ESTIMATETHENETREMOVALSOFCARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHERE
TOTHE5NITED3TATESEACHYEARANESTIMATEOFCARBONmOW
TO THE 5NITED 3TATES 7E DISCUSS HOW PATTERNS OF WOOD
USE HAVE CHANGED AND WILL CHANGE AND HOW THEY WILL
INmUENCETHEPATTERNANDAMOUNTSOFCARBONSEQUESTERED
-ETHODS
(ISTORICALDATAANDLONGRANGEPROJECTIONSWEREUSEDTO
TRACKROUNDWOODANDCARBONDISPOSITIONTHROUGHTOEND
USES SUCH AS HOUSING OR PAPER 4O TRACK CARBON BEYOND
END USES TO WASTE PRODUCTS WE ESTIMATED BURNING DIS
POSAL AND DECAY FOR WASTE GENERATED IN THE PROCESS OF
USINGPRIMARYPRODUCTSANDFORRATESOFPRODUCTDISPOSAL
FROMENDUSESDECAYANDBURNING
4HE SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS IS FOCUSED AND LIMITED IN A
NUMBEROFWAYS7ETRACKCARBONHARVESTEDANDREMOVED
FROM ROUNDWOOD HARVEST SITES 4HE DECAY AND CARBON
EMISSIONSFROMLOGGINGRESIDUEISCONTAINEDINSEPARATE
ESTIMATES WE DISPLAY OF NET SEQUESTRATION IN FORESTS 7E
DID NOT ESTIMATE THE AMOUNTS OF CARBON RELEASED DUE TO
FOSSILFUELSBURNEDBYHARVESTINGEQUIPMENTORTOPOWER
PRIMARYORSECONDARYWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSMILLSOR
TOMAKElNALPRODUCTSUSINGWOODSUCHASHOUSING7E
3KOGAND.ICHOLSON
NOTEHOWMUCHCARBONWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSSEQUES
TER THAT MAY OFFSET SUCH EMISSIONS 7E SHOW ESTIMATES
OF NET SEQUESTRATION IN FORESTS THE ESTIMATES INCLUDE ALL
CARBONACCUMULATIONINTREESANDSOILANDALLDEDUCTIONS
FOR DECAY OF DEAD TREES INCLUDING LOGGING RESIDUE AND
DEDUCTIONSDUETOEMISSIONSFROMFORESTlRES7EINCLUDE
EMISSIONS FROM ALL BURNING OF WOOD RESIDUE AND DIS
CARDED WOOD FOR ENERGY OR INCINERATION AND OVER TIME
ALL REGROWTH OF ALL TREES /UR MODEL PROJECTIONS DO NOT
INCLUDEPROJECTIONSOFBIOMASSPLANTATIONSFORENERGYPRO
DUCTION 7E DID NOT CALCULATE IF OVER TIME THE DEGREE
TO WHICH THE EFFECT OF HARVESTING AND USING WOOD FOR
FUELINCREASESTHEGROWTHINFORESTSOVERTHEGROWTHTHAT
WOULDOCCURWITHOUTWOODBURNINGSOASTOREABSORBTHE
CARBON EMITTED BY BURNING 4HIS IS AN IMPORTANT QUES
TIONFORFURTHERRESEARCH7EESTIMATEDTHEAMOUNTOFHAR
VESTED AND USED CARBON AND ITS DISPOSITION STARTING IN
&OROURHISTORICALESTIMATESPOSTANDPROJECTIONS
WE TRACKED CARBON ADDED TO AND EMITTED FROM STOCKS
OF WOOD AND PAPER PRODUCTS IN THE 5NITED 3TATES .ET
SEQUESTRATION TO 53 CARBON SINKS COME FROM WOOD IN
TREESHARVESTEDINTHE5NITED3TATESANDFROMNETIMPORTS
IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF LOGS AND WOOD AND PAPER
PRODUCTS (ISTORICAL HARVEST AND PRODUCT USE DATA ARE
NEEDED TO ESTIMATE FUTURE EMISSIONS FROM PRODUCTS THAT
WEREMANUFACTUREDINTHEPAST#ARBONCONTAINEDINHAR
VESTEDTIMBERANDNETIMPORTSISTRACKEDTHROUGHPRIMARY
PROCESSINGINTOPRODUCTSANDENDUSESlGADAPTED
FROM 2OW AND 0HELPS 7OOD OR PAPER RESIDUES
ARE GENERATED AT ALL PHASES OF PROCESSING AND ARE EITHER
REUSED IN A PRODUCT BURNED WITH OR WITHOUT ENERGY OR
DUMPEDHISTORICALLYORLANDlLLEDCURRENTLY7OODAND
PAPER PRODUCTS ARE TRACKED TO VARIOUS END USES WHERE
THEYHAVEALIMITEDLIFESPANANDARERETIREDFROMUSEAND
SENT TO LANDlLLS OR BURNED 4HE FATE OF LOGGING RESIDUES
WERENOTCONSIDEREDINTHISMODELSINCEDECAYANDEMIS
SIONSFROMTHESERESIDUESAREMODELEDASPARTOFTHEFOREST
ECOSYSTEMANDINCLUDEDINESTIMATESOFCHANGEINCARBON
SEQUESTERED IN FORESTS (EATH AND "IRDSEY "IRDSEY
AND(EATH
(ISTORICALDATAONWOODHARVESTANDENDUSEFROM
THROUGHAREFROM53$!&OREST3ERVICESURVEYSAND
ESTIMATES 53$! &OREST 3ERVICE 7ADELLETAL(ISTORICALWOOD
HARVEST FROM THROUGH WAS TRACKED FROM PRI
MARYPRODUCTSTOENDUSESTODUMPSORLANDlLLS.ICH
OLSON 0ROJECTIONS OF WOOD HARVEST AND PRIMARY
PRODUCT PRODUCTION WERE MADE USING THE MODELS THAT
WERE USED FOR THE 2ESOURCE 0LANNING !CT 20!
!SSESSMENT5PDATE(AYNESETAL)NCE4HESE
PROJECTIONSWEREMADEBYTHE.ORTH!MERICAN0ULPAND
0APER .!0!0 MODEL AND 4IMBER !SSESSMENT -ARKET
4!--!4,!3 FOREST SECTOR MODELS (ISTORICAL INFOR
MATIONANDPROJECTIONSFROM.!0!0AND4!--!4,!3
#ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS
&IGUREˆ#YCLINGOFCARBONTHROUGHWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS
WERE PROCESSED BY THE 7//$#!2" MODEL TO MAKE
CARBONESTIMATESTHROUGHFOR
s NET CARBON SEQUESTERED IN PRODUCTS IN USE EACH YEAR
CARBONINMINUSCARBONOUT
s NETCARBONSEQUESTEREDINLANDlLLSORDUMPSEACHYEAR
CARBONINMINUSCARBONOUT
s CARBONRELEASEDBYBURNINGWHEREUSEABLEENERGYWAS
PRODUCEDEACHYEARAND
s CARBON RELEASED BY DECAY OR BURNING WITHOUT ENERGY
PRODUCEDEACHYEAR
4HE .!0!0 MODEL SIMULATES OPERATION OF MARKETS
ANDPROJECTSCONSUMPTIONOFPULPWOODUSEANDCHANGE
OFPROCESSINGTECHNOLOGYANDCONSUMPTIONOFPULPAND
PAPER )T PROJECTS CONSUMPTION OF HARDWOOD AND SOFT
WOOD PULPWOOD FOUR CATEGORIES OF RECYCLED PAPER AND
PRODUCTIONANDTRADEOFCATEGORIESOFPULPANDPAPER
4HE 4!-- MODEL AND THE !4,!3 TIMBER INVENTORY
PROJECTION MODEL SIMULATE THE OPERATION OF SOLID WOOD
MARKETS AND PROJECT CONSUMPTION OF TIMBER PRODUCTION
OF LUMBER AND PANEL PRODUCTS AND END USE OF LUMBER
ANDPANELSINCONSTRUCTIONMANUFACTURINGSHIPPINGAND
OTHER APPLICATIONS SEE -ILLS ET AL THIS VOLUME 4HE
4!-- MODEL ALSO TRACKS IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF LOGS
LUMBERANDPANELS4HE!4,!3MODELUSES.!0!0AND
4!-- CALCULATIONS OF TIMBER REMOVALS TO PROJECT 53
FORESTINVENTORY4HE7//$#!2"MODELISANADDITION
TO THE 4!-- MODEL THAT TRACKS CARBON IN ALL TIMBER
REMOVED FROM 53 LAND PLUS CARBON IN NET IMPORTS OF
LOGSANDWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTS
4HE FOLLOWING SECTIONS EXPLAIN THE METHODS USED TO
TRACK THE mOW OF CARBON IN WOOD FROM FORESTS THROUGH
PRODUCTSANDENDUSESTOLANDlLLSANDEMISSIONBYDECAY
ORBURNING
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
#ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS
#ARBON4RANSFER
&ROM&ORESTSTO(ARVESTED2OUNDWOOD
4HECARBONINWOODHARVESTEDEACHYEARWASESTIMATED
THROUGH BEGINNING WITH WOOD HARVESTED IN AND FOLLOWING EACH YEARS WOOD HARVEST THROUGH TO ITS
lNALDISPOSITION#ARBONINWOODRESIDUELEFTONHARVEST
SITESISNOTINCLUDED#UBICFEETOFROUNDWOODREMOVEDIN
EACHOFNINE53REGIONSISCONVERTEDTOWEIGHTOFCARBON
USINGFACTORSSHOWNINTABLE"IRDSEY#ARBONIN
LOGS IMPORTED IS ADDED TO THE ROUNDWOOD SOURCES AND
CARBONINLOGSEXPORTEDISDEDUCTED4HEDISTRIBUTIONOF
USES OF IMPORTED LOGS IS ASSUMED TO BE THE SAME AS THE
DISTRIBUTIONOFUSESFORDOMESTICSAWLOGS
&ROM2OUNDWOODTO0RIMARY0RODUCTSAND
2ESIDUE
!NNUALHISTORICALESTIMATESANDPROJECTIONSOFDETAILED
PRODUCTPRODUCTIONFROMTHE.!0!0AND4!--MODELS
WEREUSEDTODIVIDEROUNDWOODCONSUMEDINTOPRIMARY
PRODUCTWOODMILLRESIDUEANDPULPMILLRESIDUECATE
GORIESTABLE)NMOSTAREASSOLIDWOODRESIDUESARE
USEDALMOSTENTIRELYASRAWMATERIALSFOROTHERPROCESSES
ORAREBURNEDFORENERGY/NLYASMALLPORTIONOFRESIDUES
IS LEFT TO DECAY OR IS BURNED WITHOUT ENERGY 0OWELL ET
AL#ARBONINIMPORTSOFPRIMARYSOLIDWOODAND
PAPER PRODUCTS IS ADDED TO EACH PRODUCT CATEGORY AND
CARBONINEXPORTSISDEDUCTED
&ROM0RIMARY0RODUCTSTO%ND5SE0RODUCTS
AND$ISPOSAL
#ARBON IN SOLID WOOD PRODUCTS IS ESTIMATED FOR NINE
ENDUSE CATEGORIES TO ESTIMATE THE TIME CARBON REMAINS
SEQUESTEREDINTHOSEPRODUCTSTABLE4HE4!--PRO
JECTIONSAREUSEDTODIVIDEPRODUCTSINTOTHESECATEGORIES
0ULPANDPAPERPRODUCTSARENOTTRACKEDTOENDUSESBUT
THETIMEINUSEISESTIMATEDDIRECTLYFORVARIOUSPRIMARY
PRODUCTS 7HEN PRODUCTS ARE PLACED IN END USES SUCH
ASHOUSECONSTRUCTIONFORSOLIDWOODANDMAGAZINEPRO
DUCTIONFORPAPERSOMEWOODORPAPERISDISCARDED7E
ASSUMELOSSFORSOLIDWOODPRODUCTSANDFORPAPER
ANDPAPERBOARDPRODUCTSASTHEYAREPLACEDINTOENDUSES
SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION OR PUBLICATIONS ,OST OR DISCARDED
WOODORPAPERISTRACKEDTORECYCLINGDISPOSALINLANDlLLS
ORDUMPSOREMISSIONBYBURNING7EESTIMATE^PER
CENTOFPAPERANDPAPERBOARDWASTEAFTERRECYCLINGWAS
BURNEDINTHISPERCENTAGEINCREASESTOPERCENTFOR
THEYEARANDTHEREAFTER53%0!
7E ADAPTED AN EQUATION USED BY 2OW AND 0HELPS TO
ESTIMATETHEFRACTIONOFCARBONREMAININGINENDUSEFOR
EACHYEARAFTERTHEPRODUCTWASPLACEDINUSE2OWAND
0HELPS P 4HE KEY PARAMETER IN THE EQUATION
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
3KOGAND.ICHOLSON
4ABLE ˆ#ARBON PER UNIT OF ROUNDWOOD BY REGION IN KGM
LBFT
2EGION
0ACIlC.ORTHWESTWEST
0ACIlC.ORTHWESTEAST
0ACIlC3OUTHWEST
.ORTHERN2OCKY-OUNTAINS
3OUTHERN2OCKY-OUNTAINS
.ORTH#ENTRAL
.ORTH%AST
3OUTH#ENTRAL
3OUTH%AST
3OFTWOOD
FACTORS
(ARDWOOD
FACTORS
ISTHEHALFLIFEFORCARBONINEACHENDUSETABLE4HE
HALFLIFE IS THE TIME AFTER WHICH HALF THE CARBON PLACED
IN USE IS NO LONGER IN USE $ISPOSITION OF CARBON AFTER
USE INCLUDES RECYCLING DISPOSAL IN LANDlLL OR DUMP OR
EMISSIONTOTHEATMOSPHEREBYBURNINGWITHORWITHOUT
ENERGYPRODUCED
4HERATEOFRETIREMENTOFWOODFROMENDUSESISCON
STANT FOR A PERIOD THEN ACCELERATES FOR A WHILE NEAR THE
MEDIANLIFEANDlNALLYSLOWSDOWNAFTERTHEMEDIANLIFE
3OMEWOODORPAPERITEMSAREEXPECTEDTOHAVEVERYLONG
LIVESINUSESSUCHASHISTORICALBUILDINGSBOOKSINLIBRAR
IESANDANTIQUES4HERATEOFRETIREMENTOFPAPERPRODUCTS
FROMUSEISVERYFASTTHEHALFLIFEISYEARORLESSEXCEPT
FOR PAPER IN LONGLIVED PUBLICATIONS FREE SHEET PAPER
WHICHHASAHALFLIFEOFYEARS
#ARBON$ISPOSALIN$UMPSAND,ANDlLLS
4HELENGTHOFTIMEWOODASOPPOSEDTOPAPERREMAINS
IN END USES MAY HAVE ONLY A MINOR EFFECT ON THE NET
AMOUNT OF CARBON SEQUESTERED IN PRODUCTS IN THE LONG
RUN )F WHEN TAKEN OUT OF USE PRODUCTS ARE DISPOSED
OFINAMODERNLANDlLLTHELITERATUREINDICATESTHATTHEY
WILLSTAYTHEREINDElNITELYWITHALMOSTNODECAY-ICALES
AND3KOG7HATMAYBEMOREIMPORTANTFORCARBON
SEQUESTRATIONOREMISSIONSISHOWMUCHWASTEWOODFROM
DISCARDEDWOODPRODUCTSORDEMOLITIONISBURNEDEMIT
TINGCARBONWITHORWITHOUTENERGYORHOWMUCHISRECY
CLEDREDUCINGHARVESTFROMFORESTS
7OOD AND PAPER SENT TO LANDlLLS OR DUMPS PRIOR TO
INCLUDESRESIDUEFROMSOLIDWOODMILLSINVERYLIM
ITED AMOUNTS CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION WASTE AND
DISCARDED PAPER PAPERBOARD AND SOLID WOOD PRODUCTS
4HESESAMEMATERIALSARESOMETIMESBURNEDWITHORWITH
OUT ENERGY 0RIOR TO MOST MATERIALS WERE PLACED
INDUMPSWHEREAPROPORTIONWASBURNEDANDCONTENTS
WERE MORE EXPOSED TO OXYGEN AND DECAYED MORE COM
3KOGAND.ICHOLSON
#ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS
4ABLEˆ#ATEGORIESOFHISTORICALANDPROJECTEDWOODCONSUMPTIONUSEDTOCONSTRUCTESTIMATESOFWOODCARBONUSEDISPOSALAND
DECAY
(ISTORICALESTIMATESn
0ROJECTIONSn
3OLIDWOODPRODUCTSANDWOODMILLRESIDUE
,UMBER
3TRUCTURALPANELING
.ONSTRUCTURALPANELING
2AILWAYTIES
-ISCELLANEOUSPRODUCTS
2OUNDWOODFORFUELWOOD
7OODANDBARKMILLRESIDUE
(ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODLUMBER
(ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODPLYWOOD
(ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODINRECONSTITUTEDPANELS
(ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODMISCELLANEOUSPRODUCTS
(ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODFORROUNDWOODFORFUELWOOD
(ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODWOODMILLRESIDUE
(ARDWOODANDSOFTWOODBARKMILLRESIDUE
0APERANDPAPERBOARDPRODUCTSANDPULPMILLRESIDUE
0APERWITHLONGUSELIFE
0APERWITHSHORTUSELIFE
0APERBOARD
3LUDGEANDPULPLIQUOR
.EWSPRINT
#OATEDFREESHEET
5NCOATEDFREESHEET
#OATEDGROUNDWOOD
4ISSUEANDSANITARY
3PECIALTY
+RAFTPACKAGING
,INERBOARD
#ORRUGATINGMEDIUM
3OLIDBLEACHEDBOARD
2ECYCLEDBOARD
#ONSTRUCTIONPAPERANDBOARD
$ISSOLVINGPULP
7OODANDBARKWASTE
3LUDGEANDPULPLIQUOR
4ABLEˆ%NDUSECATEGORIESUSEDTOESTIMATETIMETHATCAR
BONREMAINSSEQUESTERED
4ABLE ˆ!SSUMED DURATION OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN END
USESOFWOODANDPAPER
3OLIDWOODPRODUCTS
0APERANDPAPERBOARD
%NDUSE
-ULTIFAMILYHOUSING
-OBILEHOMES
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&URNITURE
2AILROADTIES
-ISCELLANEOUSUSES
#ONSTRUCTIONWASTE
$EMOLITIONWASTE
5SEANDDISPOSALCATEGORIES
.EWSPRINT
"OXES
/FlCEPAPER
#OATEDPAPER
2ECYCLEDPAPERCATEGORIES
/LDNEWSPAPER
/LDCORRUGATEDCONTAINERS
-IXEDPAPER
0ULPSUBSTITUTESANDHIGH
GRADEDEINKING
3INGLEFAMILYHOMESPRE
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-ULTIFAMILYHOMES
-OBILEHOMES
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0ALLETS
-ANUFACTURING
&URNITURE
2AILROADTIES
0APERFREESHEET
0APERALLOTHER
PLETELY,EGISLATIONTHENREQUIREDTHATDUMPSBEPHASED
OUT BY 3INCE THEN MATERIALS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN
LANDlLLS -ATERIALS IN LANDlLLS ARE PERIODICALLY COVERED
WHICH PREVENTS OXYGEN FROM ENTERING &OR DUMPS WE
(ALFLIFEOFCARBONYEARS
ESTIMATETHATPERCENTOFWASTEWASBURNED7EASSUME
THE REMAINING WASTE DECAYED EVENLY DURING A YEAR
PERIODWITHAGREATERPROPORTIONOFCARBONBEINGRELEASED
AS#/THANAS#(BECAUSEOFAGREATERMIXOFOXYGEN
WITHTHEMATERIALS
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
#ARBON3EQUESTRATIONIN7OODAND0APER0RODUCTS
3KOGAND.ICHOLSON
4HEPATTERNOFLANDlLLDECAYISMARKEDLYDIFFERENTFOR
WOODTHANFORPAPER!RELATIVELYSHORTTIMEAFTERMATERIAL
ISPLACEDINALANDlLLTHEMATERIALISCOVEREDANDOXYGEN
IS PREVENTED FROM ENTERING THE LANDlLL 7HILE OXYGEN
IS AVAILABLE WHITEROT FUNGUS CAN DECAY LIGNIN TO A LIM
ITED EXTENT (OWEVER THE OXYGEN IS CONSUMED RAPIDLY
!FTERTHEOXYGENISGONEONLYANAEROBICBACTERIAREMAIN
4HESEORGANISMSCANNOTBREAKDOWNLIGNINBUTTHEYCAN
BREAKDOWNEXPOSEDCELLULOSEANDHEMICELLULOSE(OW
EVERANAEROBICBACTERIACANNOTREACHCELLULOSEORHEMICEL
LULOSETHATISENCLOSEDINLIGNIN(AMETAL7ANGET
AL4HISMEANSTHATVERYLITTLEDECAYOFSOLIDWOOD
OCCURS.EWSPRINTWHICHHASALIGNINCONTENTOFTO
PERCENTISALSOVERYRESISTANTTODECAY/THERPAPERSWITH
LESSLIGNINARESOMEWHATMORESUBJECTTODECAY)NGEN
ERALMUCHLESSTHANHALFOFTHECARBONINWOODORPAPER
ISEVERCONVERTEDTO#/OR#(TABLE-ICALESAND
3KOG
.OTONLYISTHEDECAYOFWOODANDPAPERHIGHLYLIM
ITEDINLANDlLLSBUTTHEPROPORTIONOFCARBONEMITTEDAS
#/ISLIMITEDTO^PERCENTVERSUS^PERCENTAS#(
DUETOTHELIMITATIONOFOXYGENANDTHEGREATERPRODUC
TIONOF#(BYANAEROBICBACTERIA(ALFOFTHETOTAL#/IS
EMITTEDIN^YEARSWHILEHALFTHETOTAL#(ISEMITTEDIN
^YEARS-ICALESAND3KOG
4HE SHIFT TO GREATER #( PRODUCTION IN LANDlLLS COM
PAREDWITHTHATINDUMPSISIMPORTANTBECAUSE#(IS
TIMESMOREEFFECTIVETHAN#/ASAHEATTRAPPINGGREEN
HOUSEGAS)NOURTRACKINGOF#(PRODUCTIONWEASSUME
OFTHE#( ISCONVERTEDTO#/BYMICROORGANISMS
ASITMOVESOUTOFTHELANDlLL7EASSUMETHATTHEPROPOR
TIONOFLANDlLL#(THATISBURNEDWILLINCREASEFROMTHE
CURRENTLEVELTOBY
4ABLEˆ%STIMATEDMAXIMUMPROPORTIONSOFWOODANDPAPER
THATARECONVERTEDTO#/OR#(INLANDlLLS
0RODUCTTYPE
-AXIMUMCARBONCONVERTED
3OLIDWOOD
.EWSPRINT
#OATEDPAPER
"OXBOARD
/FlCEPAPER
WHERE#)#ISNETSEQUESTRATIONTOTHEINVENTORYOFCARBON
IN THE FOREST PER YEAR CARBON INVENTORY CHANGE )T
ACCOUNTS FOR ANY EMISSIONS FROM DECAY OF DEAD TREES OR
ORGANICMATERIALINTHESOIL)TALSOACCOUNTSFOREMISSIONS
FROM DECAY OR BURNING OF LOGGING RESIDUE LEFT AFTER HAR
VESTING (0IS HARVEST AND REMOVAL OF WOOD CARBON FOR
PRODUCTS AND WOOD BURNING PER YEAR 7E ONLY INCLUDE
BURNINGOFWOODAFTERITHASBEENHARVESTEDANDREMOVED
FROMTHEFOREST%MISSIONSFROMFORESTlRESAREINCLUDED
INTHEESTIMATEOFNETSEQUESTRATIONINFORESTS#)#(AR
VESTINGFORPRODUCTSCOULDREDUCEEMISSIONSFROMlREAND
INCREASESEQUESTRATIONINPRODUCTS4HISIMPORTANTEFFECT
SHOULDBETHESUBJECTOFFURTHERRESEARCH
7E NOW FOCUS ON THE STOCK OF CARBON IN THE ATMO
SPHERE AND ESTIMATE HOW THE FOREST SECTOR ADDS TO OR
DECREASESTHESIZEOFTHISSTOCK7EINCLUDETHEEMISSIONS
FROM IMPORTS IN OUR VARIABLES FOR EMISSIONS FROM THE
5NITED3TATES4HERATEOFREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHERE
PERYEARMAYBEEXPRESSEDASFOLLOWSPOSITIVETERMSREP
RESENTREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHERENEGATIVETERMSREP
RESENTADDITIONSTOTHEATMOSPHERE
#ALCULATING.ET2EMOVALOF#ARBONFROMTHE
!TMOSPHERETOTHE5NITED3TATES
/NE OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY IS TO ESTIMATE THE COM
BINED EFFECT OF THE FORESTRY SECTOR ON NET REMOVAL OF
CARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHERETHROUGHTHEYEAR4HIS
INCLUDESSEQUESTRATIONTOFORESTSPRODUCTSANDLANDlLLS
ANDEMISSIONSBYBURNINGANDDECAYINCLUDINGEMISSIONS
FROMIMPORTEDPRODUCTS4HISSECTIONWILLSHOWWHYNET
ANNUAL SEQUESTRATION OF CARBON IN 53 STOCKS FORESTS
PRODUCTSLANDlLLSISGREATERTHANTHENETREMOVALTOTHE
5NITED3TATESFROMTHEATMOSPHEREBYTHEAMOUNTOFNET
IMPORTS
'ROSS SEQUESTRATION OF CARBON TO FOREST TREES AND SOIL
PER YEAR ' MAY BE EXPRESSED AS THE CHANGE IN CARBON
INVENTORYINFORESTSDURINGAYEARPLUSCARBONINMATERIAL
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FROMBURNING#(FORENERGYPRODUCTION%#/ISEMIS
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ENERGY AND %#( IS EMISSIONS OF CARBON AS #( FROM
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7E MAY EXPRESS THE NET SEQUESTRATION TO THE STOCK OF
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THESTOCKOFPRODUCTSINUSEEACHYEAR
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SHIFTSTOLANDlLLS3OTHEANNUALCHANGEINSTOCKSINCLUDES
NETIMPORTSWHILEANNUALREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHERE
DOESNOT
%QUATION ;= DOES NOT INCLUDE CARBON EMISSIONS FROM
FOSSIL FUELS BURNED FOR ENERGY IN FOREST SECTOR ACTIVITIES
4HESEQUESTRATIONCALCULATEDHEREISTHEDIVIDENDOBTAINED
BYTHEFORESTRYACTIVITIESOFTHESECTOR)FONEWERETOCOM
PARECARBONSEQUESTRATIONEFFECTSBETWEENAFORESTANDA
NONFORESTINDUSTRYTHATBOTHPROVIDEDSAYHOUSINGCOM
PONENTSONEWOULDNEEDTOACCOUNTFORNOTONLYTHEFOSSIL
FUEL EMISSIONS OF THESE INDUSTRIES BUT ALSO ANY CARBON
SEQUESTRATION4HENETSEQUESTRATIONEFFECTOFUSINGWOOD
HOUSINGCOMPONENTSISBOLSTEREDBYTHEFORESTREGROWTH
AND PRODUCT OR LANDlLL SEQUESTRATION EFFECTS CALCULATED
HERE
3OME MAY ASK WHY WOOD BURNING DOES NOT SEEM TO
ADDTOSEQUESTRATIONSINCEITREPLACESFOSSILFUELSANDTREES
GROWTOABSORBTHECARBONEMITTEDBYWOODBURNING4HE
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NET SEQUESTRATION IN ONE YEAR AND DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR
HOW THE VALUE FOR CARBON INVENTORY CHANGE #)# MAY
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VESTING AND BURNING WOOD IN THE CURRENT YEAR!FOREST
GROWTHANDYIELDMODELISNEEDEDTOEVALUATETHEDEGREE
TO WHICH THE #)# VALUE IS HIGHER IN THE FUTURE DUE TO
HARVESTANDUSEOFWOODFORENERGYINTHECURRENTYEAR
)NTHEANALYSISFORTHISSTUDYWEUSEDTHE!4,!3INVEN
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9EAR
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THE INCREASE IN PRODUCT CONSUMPTION ROUNDWOOD USE
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PRODUCTS SECTOR THE ANNUAL RATE OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION
TO FOREST TREES UNDERSTORY mOOR AND SOIL IS PROJECTED TO
DECLINEFROM4GINTO4GINTABLE
"IRDSEYAND(EATH4HISTRENDREmECTSASLOWDOWN
INTHERATEOFACCUMULATIONINTHE.ORTHASFORESTSREACH
ANAGEOFSLOWERTREEGROWTHANDSLOWERINCREASESINSOIL
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THE3OUTHWHEREACCUMULATIONISBALANCEDBYREMOVALS
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4HEANNUALRATEOFCARBONACCUMULATIONINLANDlLLSOR
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/URESTIMATEOF4GOFTOTALEMISSIONSINISIDEN
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JECTEDTOINCREASETO4GPERYEARBYTABLESAND
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STOCKSIS4GYRINAND4GYEARBY
4HEANNUALNETREMOVALOFCARBONFROMTHEATMOSPHERE
TOTHE5NITED3TATESISSLIGHTLYLESSTHANTHEACCUMULATION
INSTOCKSDUETONETIMPORTSSUPPLEMENTING53STOCKS
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AND IS PROJECTED TO DECLINE TO 4G BY .ET
REMOVALMEASUREDIN#/EQUIVALENTEFFECTONTHEATMO
SPHERE IS 4G FOR AND IS PROJECTED TO DECLINE TO
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THEATMOSPHERETO53FORESTSANDFORESTPRODUCTSWAS
PERCENT OF THE 53 FOSSIL FUEL CARBON EMISSIONS LEVEL OF
4G
/UR ESTIMATES OF THE CUMULATIVE FATE OF CARBON IN
THE 5NITED 3TATES SINCE INCLUDING NET IMPORTS ARE
SHOWN IN lGURE 7E ESTIMATE TOTAL CARBON IN WOOD
AND BARK USED FOR PRODUCTS AND FUEL BETWEEN AND
AT0GWHERE0GISBILLIONMETRICTONS7EESTI
MATE 0G ACCUMULATED IN PRODUCTS AND LANDlLLS 0G IN WOOD AND BARK BURNED FOR ENERGY AND 0G IN
EMISSIONS4OTALACCUMULATIONOVERTHEPROJECTIONPERIOD
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3KOGAND.ICHOLSON
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STOCKSINCREASED4GYRINWHILENETSEQUESTRATION
TOFORESTSPRODUCTSANDLANDlLLSWAS4GYR4HISDIF
FERENCEISBECAUSENETSEQUESTRATIONTOSTOCKSINCLUDESNET
IMPORTSWHILEANNUALREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHEREDOES
NOT.ETREMOVALFROMTHEATMOSPHEREMAYBEINCREASED
BYBURNING#(FROMLANDlLLSTOCONVERTITTO#/WHICH
HASLESSGREENHOUSEEFFECT
4HE CHOICE OF ACCOUNTING METHOD MEASURING STOCK
CHANGES OR MEASURING REMOVALS FROM THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD DETERMINE HOW A COUNTRY WOULD COUNT CARBON
IMPORTS AND EXPORTS IN OFFSETTING GREENHOUSE GAS EMIS
SIONS FOR THE PURPOSE OF MEETING GOALS UNDER INTERNA
TIONAL AGREEMENTS 4HIS IN TURN COULD INmUENCE FOREST
AND INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT IN THE 53 )F CREDIT IS GIVEN
FOR INCREASING STOCKS A COUNTRY WOULD SEEK TO BOOST
IMPORTSANDRESTRAINEXPORTS)FCREDITISGIVENFORINCREAS
ING REMOVALS FROM THE ATMOSPHERE THERE WOULD BE AN
EMPHASIS ON INCREASING CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN FORESTS
ANDINPRODUCTSFROMDOMESTICFORESTSTHATMAYBEAIDED
BYINCREASINGEXPORTSANDRESTRAININGIMPORTS4HEREMAY
ALSOBEMOREEMPHASISONDECREASINGMETHANEEMISSIONS
FROMFORESTPRODUCTSDECAYINLANDlLLS
"YRECOGNIZINGWHATHASCAUSEDCHANGESINSEQUESTRA
TION TO CARBON STOCKS IN WOOD PRODUCTS AND FORESTS WE
CAN IDENTIFY SOME WAYS SEQUESTRATION CAN BE INCREASED
EVENMORE7ECANINCREASESEQUESTRATIONTOTHESTOCKOF
CARBONINPRODUCTSLANDlLLSANDFORESTSWHILEMAINTAIN
INGTHESAMEAGGREGATECONSUMPTIONOFWOODANDPAPER
PRODUCTSBYTHEFOLLOWINGACTIONS
s SHIFTINGPRODUCTMIXTOAGREATERPROPORTIONOFLIGNIN
CONTAINING SOLID WOOD PAPER AND PAPERBOARD PROD
UCTSWHICHDECAYLESSINLANDlLLS
s INCREASINGPRODUCTRECYCLINGAND
s INCREASINGPRODUCTUSELIFE
#ONCLUSIONS
#ARBON DIOXIDE EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS WOULD ALSO BE
REDUCED BY THE ACTIONS NOTED %MISSIONS WOULD ALSO BE
REDUCED BY BURNING MORE LANDlLL #( IN PLACE OF FOSSIL
FUELS
)T MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INCREASE SEQUESTRATION WHILE
INCREASING PRODUCT CONSUMPTION ABOVE PROJECTED LEVELS
BUT THIS WOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CERTAIN EFFECTS OF
SUCHANINCREASENOTASSESSEDINTHISSTUDY
/URPROJECTIONSINDICATEWEHAVEACCUMULATED0G
OFCARBONINTHESTOCKOFWOODANDPAPERPRODUCTSINUSE
ANDINLANDlLLSANDDUMPSINTHE5NITED3TATESBETWEEN
AND4HISISSUBSTANTIALCOMPAREDWITHTHE
STOCKOFCARBONINFORESTTREES0GANDINFORESTSOIL
0G
!NNUALSEQUESTRATIONTOPRODUCTCARBONSTOCKSINTHE
5NITED3TATESARESLIGHTLYGREATERTHANANNUALREMOVALOF
s (OWMUCHWOULDANNUALCARBONINVENTORYCHANGEIN
THEFORESTINCREASEINTHEFUTUREASARESULTOFINCREASED
HARVESTTODAY
s (OW MUCH WOULD MANUFACTURING EMISSIONS CHANGE
DUE TO SUBSTITUTION OF WOOD AND PAPER FOR NONWOOD
PRODUCTS
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DUETOREDUCTIONINFUELSAVAILABLEFORlRES
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