Naval Postgraduate School Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering SEA-4 Expeditionary Warfare Force Protection T Th h ee M M is is ss io io n n :: P P rro o ttee cc ttin in g g tth h ee S S ee aa B B aa ss ee 04 December 03 Outline Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Introduction Methodology Problem Definition Design & Analysis Modeling Conclusion 2 Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Introduction Methodology Problem Definition LCDR Higgs Design & Analysis Modeling Conclusion 3 SEA-4 Team Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering LCDR Ron Higgs, USN, 1510 LCDR Greg Parkins, USN, 1130 LCDR Eric Higgins, USN, 1510 LT Chris Wells, USN, 1110 LT Vince Tionquiao, USN, 1600 4 What We Did Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Used a systems engineering approach to solve a complex multidisciplinary problem Took a big picture, overarching look at protecting the Sea Base Analyzed future threats to the Sea Base Performed deterministic analysis of sensor and weapon systems Generated alternative conceptual designs intended to protect the Sea Base Used modeling and simulation to assess the performance of the alternative systems Identified the most effective system of systems conceptual solution to provide force protection for the Sea Base Provided a foundation of data, tools, and methodologies for more detailed studies 5 Disclaimer Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering This study was an academic exercise used to complete Master’s Thesis requirements for the Systems Engineering and Analysis Curriculum Results not endorsed by USN or USMC All information was obtained from open sources We were not trying to: – Generate operational requirements – Create doctrine – Generate specifications for actual systems 6 Force Protection Survivability Design Factors Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering UAV Sensor SensorArchitecture Architecture ••Point Point ••Distributed Distributed Aerostat Aerostat UUV 50 km 50 km UAV Above the Water 10 km text 36 km 740 km Weapons WeaponsArchitecture Architecture ••Point Point ••Distributed Distributed 300 m 370 km OBJ B UUV 100 km Below the Water COA B OBJ A Force ForceComposition Composition ••CRUDES-based CRUDES-based ••LCS-based LCS-based Weapons WeaponsType Type ••Current Current ••Conceptual Conceptual 7 Path to Proposed Force Protection Architecture Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering PR Systems Engineering and Management Process Cult ural Problem Definition Descriptive Scenario O Techno lo Design & Analysis Eco Value System Design ic Decision Making Alternative Scoring Normative Scenario Desired End State: What should be? Decision Implementation Planning for Action Execution al litic Po nom Modeling & Analysis Engineering Design Problem Needs Analysis gical C ES S Alternatives Generation l ica tor His Current Status: What is? Environment Mo Eth ral / ica l Assessment & Control <---- Assessment & Feedback -------- A PR O BL EM SC Interceptor-1 vs. ASCM-3 N R (Point Weapons / Point Sensor Architecture) Range (km) 30 DTGI A (0 sec Reaction Delay) 20 10 0 0 LY 10 20 Threat Max D etection Range Max Intercept Range SI S 30 Min Intercept Range S hot 1 S hot 2 40 T ime (se c) TTGI System Delay Reaction Delay 1 Successful Intercept M O D 180 EL 160 140 # of Launches 40 EN A 120 100 80 60 40 R IO OBJ B ES U LT COA B OBJ A ExWar ShipInterceptor Launches 20 S 0 CRUDES/ Current CRUDES/ Conceptual LCS/ Current LCS/ Conceptual 8 Extensive Modeling Efforts to Analyze Design Alternatives Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering EX I n te r c e p to r - 1 v s . A S C M - 3 ( P o in t W e a p o n s / P o in t S e n s o r A r c h ite c tu r e ) C DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS Sensor Alternate Force Force Weapon Weapons Architecture Composition Architecture D ( 0 s e c R e a c tio n D e la y ) 40 Range (km) 30 DTGI 20 10 EL 0 Modeling Tool Assessment JANUS Ease of use (time risk) Analysis Database Cost State I State II State III Support September 2003 JTLS NSS 0 10 20 ™ EX 30 ES IG Distributed S ho t 2 Point 40 COA B 1 S u c c e s s fu l In te r c e p t TE COA A M i n In te r c e p t R a n g e S ho t 1 T im e ( s e c ) EINSTEIN EXTEND EXCEL SS ES S M a x D e te c ti o n R a n g e M a x In te r c e p t R a n g e TTGI S y s t e m D e la y R e a c t io n D e la y A T hre a t N Distributed N D ™ Current 1 Conceptual 2 Current 3 Point N Conceptual 4 Current 5 Conceptual 6 Current 7 Conceptual 8 SS 9 Integrated Interdisciplinary Team Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Force Protection Architecture Sensor/Weapon Architectures Force Composition Weapon Types • Overall Integration – Problem Definition, Modeling and Analysis • Requirements Generation – LCS Attributes SEA-4 TSSE • LCS Design – SEA SWAT NPS Theses TDSI Supporting Studies • LCS Thesis – Stealth, Distributed Fires, Helo/UCAV Control • SSGN Study – Battle Space Preparation • MSSE Study – Layered Defense, Hardkill & Softkill Weapons • Physics Team – Cooperative Radar Network, Distributed Sensors • OR Team – Number and Placement of Assets, Distributed Defenders • IA Team – Identification of IW threats to the Sea Base • ME Team – Distributed Sensors, Battle Space Preparation • ECE Team – Distributed Sensor Network Details 10 Where We Started: SEI-3 Study Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Foundation for SEA-4 Study Developed a sea based conceptual architecture to accomplish the Expeditionary Warfare mission in the 2015-2020 timeframe using the operational tenet of OMFTS Focused on logistics and the elimination of the “iron mountain” Force protection for the Sea Base identified for further research 11 SEA-4 Tasking Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Official Project Guidance Develop a system of systems conceptual solution to provide force protection for the Sea Base and its transport assets while performing forced entry and STOM operations in support of the Ground Combat Element of a Marine Expeditionary Brigade Address protection of the ships of the Sea Base while at sea in the operating area – Protection of the airborne transport assets moving between the Sea Base and the objective – Protection of the surface assets moving between the Sea Base and the beach Not required to address protection of the Sea Base assets while in port Task does not include addressing the protection of the land force itself or land transport from the beach to the objective 12 Limitations Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Resources Classification Experience Constraints Cost Analysis 13 Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Introduction Methodology Problem Definition LCDR Higgs Design & Analysis Modeling Conclusion 14 Methodology Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Systems Engineering and Management Process l tura Cul al ric o t His Descriptive Scenario Current Status: What is? Problem Definition Needs Analysis Value System Design l it i Po l ca Environment Design & Analysis Techn olog Alternatives Generation ical Eco nom ic Modeling & Analysis Engineering Design Problem Decision Making Alternative Scoring Normative Scenario Desired End State: What should be? Decision Implementation Planning for Action Execution Assessment & Control Mo Eth ral / ica l <---- Assessment & Feedback -------15 Systems Engineering and Management Process (SEMP) Summary Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering SEMP is a framework for approaching problems from a systems perspective SEMP pairs creative thinking with analytical skills Systems engineering design and management is an iterative process – Phases of SEMP, and steps within the phases are repeated as necessary SEMP may have to be tailored to fit the needs of the project 16 Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Introduction Methodology Problem Definition LCDR Parkins Design & Analysis Modeling Conclusion 17 Effective Need Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Conserve the force’s fighting potential so it can be applied at the decisive time and place. Conserving the force’s fighting potential is achieved through maximizing survivability by minimizing susceptibility and vulnerability. 18 Scope and Bound the Problem Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Identify issues Make assumptions Break out the tool bag – Functional Analysis – Futures Analysis – Value System Design Generate requirements 19 Primitive Need Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Protect the Sea Base while at sea in the operating area Protect the airborne transport assets from the Sea Base to the objective Protect the surface transport assets from the Sea Base to the beach or port 20 Issues Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering What is force protection? What is a Sea Base? What makes up a Sea Base? Where does the Sea Base operate? Is the Sea Base supported by other assets? What is Ship To Objective Maneuver? What constraints does this study fall under? 21 Assumptions Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB) operations occur in the 2015-2020 timeframe. MEB size Marine Air Ground Task Force composition and sustainment requirements remain constant between the present and 2015-2020. The USMC adopts Ship To Objective Maneuver doctrine. SEI-3’s conceptual expeditionary warfare architecture is operationally available in 2015-2020. All current USN and USMC legacy platforms will remain operational through 2015-2020. All proposed USN and USMC acquisitions of new aircraft and land vehicles will be operationally available in 2015-2020. MEB forces may be projected as far as 200 nm inland. The ships of the Sea Base may be as far as 200 nm offshore, but not to exceed 275 nm from Sea Base to objective. A Carrier Strike Group is available for battle space preparation. Expeditionary warfare force protection is modeled and analyzed in the SEA-4 Sea Base defined region only. 22 Force Protection Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Actions taken to prevent or mitigate hostile action against the Sea Base These actions conserve the force’s fighting potential so it can be applied at the decisive time and place These actions enable effective employment of the joint force while degrading opportunities for the enemy Force protection does not include actions to defeat the enemy or protect against accidents, weather, or disease Adapted from the DOD Dictionary 23 Sea Base (Defined by SEI-3) Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering OBJECTIVE CONUS OFFSHORE BASES FORWARD DEPLOYED FORCES ASSEMBLY AREA LAUNCHING AREA Sea Base 24 Sea Base Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Amphibious Force (MEB) Force Protection Assets Combat Forces NESG (MEU) ExWar Ship Air Assets LRHLAC (3) MV-22 (14) AH-1Z (4) UH-1Y (4) JSF (6) ExWar Ship NESG (MEU) ExWar Ship ExWar Ship Combat Support Forces NESG (MEU) ExWar Ship ExWar Logistics Ship ExWar Logistics Ship ExWar Logistics Ship ExWar Ship Surface Assets AAAV (18) HLCAC (3) LCU(R) (2) 25 SEI-3 ExWar Ship and Long Range Heavy Lift Aircraft Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering L o n g R a n g e H e a v y L ift A irc ra ft M is s io n P r o file 100 nm 200 nm + 0 .4 h r fu e l re s e r v e 0 .5 h r h o ld in g e a c h w a y Combat variant Logistics variant • DWL: 990 ft • Displacement: 86,000 LT • Draft: 42’ • Flight deck : 770’ x 300’ • Max speed: 30 Kts • Well deck for 3 HLCACs 0 .4 h r o n d e c k a t o b je c tiv e 1 m in H O G E S L S td D a y e a c h w a y O b je c tiv e • • • • • • Combat radius: 300 nm Payload: 37,500 lb Speed: 200+ kts Shipboard compatible Spot factor 1.5 x CH-53E Internal / external load capability • 15 min cargo off-load 26 Expeditionary Maneuver Warfare Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Sea Basing…backbone of Ship To Objective Maneuver (STOM). "From the Sea" "Forward…From the Sea" "Operational Maneuver from the Sea" "STOM" – Exploit traditional maneuver and naval warfare – Leverage technical superiority, speed, mobility, communications, navigation, and fire-power 27 STOM Phases (Defined by SEA-4) Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Phase I – Staging/Build-up (Operating Area) Phase II – Ship-to-Shore Movement (seaborne assets) – Ship-to-Objective Movement (airborne assets) Phase III – Sustainment 28 Functional Analysis Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Complete Expeditionary Warfare Mission Conduct Expeditionary Operations Force Protection C4ISR Strategic Sustainment PSurvival PHit PKill|Hit Survivability Susceptibility Prevent Air Surface Subsurface Defeat Air Surface Subsurface Vulnerability Withstand Above Water On Water Below Water 29 Futures Analysis Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Surface-to-Surface Missiles Aircraft/UAV Ballistic Missiles Small Boats Unguided Munitions Submarines Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (Shore, Ship, Sub and Air-Launched) “Double-Digit” SAMs (Fixed and Mobile) Unconventional Vessels Mines 30 Which Threats Do We Choose? Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Air Warfare Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Aircraft (sea based or air assets) Anti-Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) Ballistic Missile Space-based laser Low Slow Flyer Information Warfare Computer Network Attack (CNA) Electronic Attack (EA) Chaff / Flares Sensor Overload Psyops/Deception Computer Viruses Surface Warfare Ships and Fast Patrol Boats Small Boats (wave rider, jet ski) Unconventional ships Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV) Over Land Threats Surface to Air Missiles (SAM) Small Arms Anti-Air Artillery (AAA) Rockets Mortars Undersea Warfare Submarine (diesel, nuclear, mini-sub) Mines Divers Mammals Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) Miscellaneous Land Based Gunfire CBR-N Land Mines for Craft Landing Zones (CLZ) 31 Threat Trends Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Technical – – – – Faster Smaller Advanced materials Higher explosive yield – Lighter – Low observable – Smarter Non-technical – Cheap – Tactics – Proliferation 2008 2020 32 Most Significant Threats Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Phase I Phase II Phase III (Staging / Build-up) (Assault) (Sustainment) ASCM Small Boats Unconventional Vessels Submarines Mines Small Boats Mines SAMs ASCM Aircraft/UAV ASCM Mines Unconventional Vessels SAMs Unguided Munitions 33 Threat Summary Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Unclassified Generic Universal Capabilities based 34 Scenario: 2016 South China Sea Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering PRC invests profits from its booming economy in military PRC claims hegemony over entire SCS region PRC reinforces presence on Spratly Islands PRC / Philippine naval encounter PRC invades Kepulalian Natuna and quarantines Palawan U.S. / ASEAN attempt FON operations in Sulu Sea PRC invades Palawan U.S. tasked with restoring regional stability and expelling PRC from Palawan 35 Value System Design Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Survivability Susceptibility (0.75) Defeat Attacks (0.75) Prevent Attacks (0.25) Vulnerability (0.25) Withstand Attacks (1.0) 36 Capabilities Needed Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Deploy Detect Defeat Prevent Withstand Deploy Sensor Defeat Detect Threat No No Yes Withstand Prevent No 37 Early Requirements Generation Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Overarching – Self-defense for ExWar ships • Defense against ASCMs • Defense against small-boat attack • Defense against submarine/UUV attack – – – – Robust organic MCM capability Capability to ID and defend against unconventional attacks Highly survivable transport aircraft and landing craft Provide protection for transports from the Sea Base to the objectives TSSE LCS – – – – Operate in deep to very shallow water Direct, support, and/or embark aircraft conducting USW Capability to deploy unmanned vehicles Etc. 38 Effective Need Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Conserve the force’s fighting potential so it can be applied at the decisive time and place. Conserving the force’s fighting potential is achieved through maximizing survivability by minimizing susceptibility and vulnerability. 39 Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Introduction Methodology Problem Definition LT Wells Design & Analysis Modeling Conclusion 40 Design & Analysis Key Findings Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Distributed sensor network offers increased force survivability – Greater reaction times – More engagement opportunities Point weapons vs. short-notice threats require – Greater weapons speeds – Reduced minimum ranges – Maximum ranges that are at least equal to maximum detection range Distributed conceptual weapons offer increased available reaction times – Higher weapon speed – Increased maximum ranges 41 Alternatives Generation Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Goal: Generate viable alternatives to increase force survivability Survivability Subfunctions – Deploy – Detect – Defeat – Prevent – Withstand 42 Alternatives Generation Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering D e tec t D e fe at Prevent W it h s t a n d D e p lo y R adar M is s ile C h a ff A rm o r S h ip L id a r G un F la r e R e a c tiv e A rm o r A irc ra ft IR L aser D eco ys R e f le c t i v e A r m o r UAV EO M ic ro w a v e M aneu ver R e d u n d a n t V ita l S y s te m s A e ro sta t UV A c o u s tic E le c tro n ic C o u n te r m e a s u r e s Q u a li t y C o n s t r u c t i o n S a t e l li t e S A R / IS A R IR C o u n t e r m e a s u r e s S u b m a rin e H yp e r sp e c tra l A c o u s tic C o u n te r m e a s u r e s UUV S onar S ig n a tu re M a n a g e m e n t S h o re S e is m ic M o r p h o lo g ic a l C h a r t 43 Threat Model Assumptions: Approximating Threat Shapes Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering SONAR RADAR / LIDAR / IR Mine / Torpedo / Submarine 90o 0o Surface to Air Missile / Anti-ship Cruise Missile 90o 0o Aircraft Small Boat 90o 0o Small Boat 90o 0o 0o 90o 44 Threat Model Assumptions: Example Effects of Assumptions Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering RCS vs Target Angle (ASCM-1) Radiant Exitance (M) vs Ambient Temp (ASCM-1) 120 sm 100 80 3 GHz 60 20 GHz 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 W/sm-micrometer 140 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 8-12 micrometers 3-5 micrometers 0 100 50 100 150 Degrees F Degrees Total RCS = (pr2r)(cosQ) + (2prl2r/l)(sinQ) M = (2pc2h/ l5)(1/e(hc/lkT)-1) Target Strength vs Target Angle (Mine-2) Degrees d Bsm 0 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 20 40 60 80 100 TS = 10log((r2rcosQ/4) + (2prl2/ 4pl)(rsinQ)) 1 kHz 25 khZ 56 kHz 45 Analytical Sensor Models Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Analyzed inherent trade-offs between targets’ reflectivities and emissivities using radar, lidar, and IR sensors for SUW and AW threats (ρ + ε = 1) Used active and passive sonar models for USW and SUW threats Examined threat cross sections and resulting detection ranges from various target angles Based on results: – Greater target cross section = Greater detection range – Sensor horizon limits performance – Environment strongly affects lidar and passive sonar Excel results indicated benefits of elevated sensor network 46 Analytical Search Models Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Active Sensors: Random Search Theory PD(total) = (1-e(-nwvt/A))( 1-(1- PD (1))N) Passive Sensors: ROC detection probability based on CNR PD(total) = ( 1-(1- PD (1))N) n = number of platforms w = dwell area or volume v = PRF t = search time A = area or volume to be searched N = nwvt/A PD (1) = ROC detection probability based on CNR 47 Search Analysis: Point Sensor Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Point Sensor Configuration r r' R = Radius of the area concerned r = Sensor distance from force center r' = Radius of sensor coverage = Notional high value unit R Where r << R 48 Search Analysis: Distributed Sensor Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Distributed Sensor Configuration r' r R R = Radius of the area concerned r = Sensor distance from force center r' = Radius of sensor coverage = Notional high value unit Where r R 49 Analytical Search Model Findings Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Distributed sensor network offers benefits of extended detection ranges and greater reaction times Distributed sensor network requires more platforms Low-level (surface-based) and elevated (airborne) sensors are complementary 50 Analytical Search Models: Mines Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Search for mines is different from the other threats considered (a weapon that waits) Higher frequencies required for detection Relatively poor detection ranges for higher frequency sonars May face high reverberation limitations Deepwater mine hunting will be very time consuming or platform intensive work 51 Sensor & Search Trade-Offs Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Goals: 1) Minimize number of search platforms 2) Minimize search time 3) Maximize Probability of Detection Findings: Based on random search model, for a given sensor and a given area or volume, two of the goals can be met at the expense of the third. Search Platforms (n) Time (t) Probability of Detection (Pd) 52 Engagement Analysis: Point Weapons Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Point Weapon Configuration r r' R = Radius of the area concerned r = Weapon distance from force center r' = Weapon range = Notional high value unit R Where r << R 53 Engagement Analysis: Distributed Weapons Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Distributed Weapon Configuration r' r R R = Radius of the area concerned r = Weapon distance from force center r' = Weapon range = Notional high value unit Where r R 54 Engagement Model Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering I n te r c e p to r- 1 v s . A S C M - 3 ( P o in t W e a p o n s - P o in t S e n s o r A r c h ite c tu r e ) (0 s e c R e a c tio n D e la y ) Range (km) 40 DTGI 30 T h re a t M a x D e te c ti o n R a n g e 20 M a x In te r c e p t R a n g e M i n In te r c e p t R a n g e S ho t 1 10 S ho t 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 T im e ( s e c ) TTGI S y s t e m D e la y R e a c t io n D e la y 1 S u c c e s s fu l In te rc e p t 55 Greater Weapon Speed = Higher Pk Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering # Interceptions vs. Reaction D elay P k vs. # Interceptors (Point W eapon-Point Sensor A rchitecture) 3 Pk # Interceptors 4 INT-1 (825 m /s ) INT- 2 (1650 m /s ) FEL (c) 2 1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.5 Pk int 0.8 Pk int 0.9 Pk int 0 1 2 3 4 5 # Interceptors 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Reaction Delay (sec) M ore R eaction Tim e = M ore Engagem ent O pportunities More Engagement Opportunities = Higher Probability of Kill Pk=1-(1-Pkint)# interceptors Greater weapon speed = More available reaction time More available reaction time = More engagements More engagements = Higher Pk 56 Distributed Sensors = Higher Pk Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering # Interceptions vs. Reaction Delay (Point Weapon-Point Sensor Architecture) # Interceptions vs. Reaction Delay (Point Weapon-Distributed Sensor Architecture) 4 3 INT-1 (825 m/s) 2 INT- 2 (1650 m/s) FEL (c) 1 # Interceptors # Interceptors 4 3 INT-1 (825 m/s) INT-2 (1650 m/s) FEL (c) 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 5 10 15 20 Reaction Delay (sec) Reaction Delay (sec) More Reaction Time = More Engagement Opportunities Distributed Sensor = More Reaction Time = More Engagement Opportunities Distributed Sensor = More available reaction time More available reaction time = More engagements More engagements = Higher Pk 57 Dist Weapons-Dist Sensors Pk Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering P k v s . R e a c tio n D e la y (D is trib u te d W e a p o n -D is trib u te d S e n s o r A rc h ite c tu re ) (Pkint=0.8) 1 0 .8 In t 3 ( 1 3 2 0 m / s ) 0 .4 In t 4 ( 1 9 8 0 m / s ) PK 0 .6 0 .2 0 0 20 40 60 80 R e a c t io n D e la y ( s e c ) Pk=1-(1-Pkint)# interceptors Longer range, higher speed weapons offer increased available reaction times 58 Design & Analysis Key Findings Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Distributed sensor network offers increased force survivability – Greater reaction times – More engagement opportunities Point weapons vs. short-notice threats require – Greater weapons speeds – Reduced minimum ranges – Maximum ranges that are at least equal to maximum detection range Distributed conceptual weapons offer increased available reaction times – Higher weapon speed – Increased maximum ranges 59 Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Introduction Methodology Problem Definition LT Tionquiao Design & Analysis Modeling Conclusion 60 Supporting Studies Overview Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering OR LCS Thesis Helo/UCAV control, Stealth MSSE LCS Thesis Integration of Hardkill / Softkill Weapons TSSE LCS Sea SWAT design OR Team Defender Employment IA Team IW threats to the Sea Base Physics Team Cooperative Radar Network ECE Team Smart Antennae System ME Team Micro-Air Vehicle OR Study SSGN and battlespace preparation 61 OR Supporting Study LCS Force Protection Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering “An Exploratory Analysis of Littoral Combat Ships’ Ability to Protect Expeditionary Strike Groups”, LT Efimba, OR Thesis Purpose: Explore LCS ability to defend an ESG in an anti-access scenario against a high density small boat attack. – LCS design factors: 1. Helo / UCAVs 2. Stealth 3. Firepower 4. Speed Methodology: EINSTein (Agent Based Simulation) – Red Force: 30 High-speed small boat agents – Blue Force: 3 Amphibs, 0-2 CRUDES, 1-7 LCS – MOEs: Amphib survivors , and Amphibs damaged Conclusion: – LCS should have both capability to control a helo/UCAV and have a stealthy hull – Use findings to translate into requirements for TSSE LCS design 62 MSSE Supporting Study LCS AAW Self-Defense Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering “MSSE LCS Study” – MSSE Cohort 1, Port Hueneme Division, NSWC Purpose: Develop a concept for an AAW Self Defense Combat System for LCS Methodology: – Threat identification – Analyses of sensors, sensor integration, C2, weapons, and manning – Primary MOP, Probability of Raid Annihilation Conclusion: – Robust gun system can perform in both AAW and ASUW roles – Both hardkill and softkill systems in a layered defense scheme is necessary to achieve the required Pra – Layered defense concept still viable in littoral environment 63 TSSE Supporting Study LCS Design: Sea SWAT Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Two types: – SUW and AW – SUW and USW Length: 400 ft Beam: 102 ft Draft: 14 ft Displacement: 3120 LT Max Speed: 42 kts Sustained Speed: 35 kts Weapons – – – – – Sensors – – – – Specifications – – – – – – Towed array sonar Multi-Function radar ASLS Hull mounted sonar 2 Helos (SH-60) – 2 Hangars, 1 Spot Unmanned Vehicles – Air, surface, underwater 57mm gun SEA RAM Harpoon Evolved Sea Sparrow Mk 50 Torpedo 64 OR Supporting Study Defender Employment Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering “Defense of Sea Base”, SI4000 - OR TDSI Team Purpose: Analysis of number and placement of assets defending high value units Methodology: – Analytical Model: 3 Models varying HVUs, Defenders, Targets – Simulation Model: (EINSTein) • Red Force: 20 or 40 HSBs or UCAVs • Blue Force: 1 or 4 LCS, 1 or 3 HVU – MOE: HVU survivors Conclusion: – 10-13 defenders for 360 deg coverage – Prob of HVU survival unaffected by # of HVU. – Defenders employ weapons/sensors at max range 65 CS Supporting Study Information Assurance Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering “Information Assurance Plan for the Protection of the Sea Base Information Systems”, SI4000 - IA TDSI Team Purpose: Establish an IA plan to protect and defend Info Systems of the Sea Base. Methodology: – Analysis of current Navy IA policy – Technology forecast of information systems Conclusion: – Nine technology recommendations for the Sea Base – IW aspects identified in initial threat analysis – Final threat list did not include IW Future Technology 1. E-Bomb 2. Biometrics 3. Laser Comms 4. Secure Tunnels 5. Intrusion Prevention 6. Intelligent Software Decoy 7. System Redundancy 8. Security through Obscurity 9. Sim Security 66 Physics Supporting Study CRANK Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering “Cooperative Radar Network (CRANK): Concept Exploration for Defending the Sea Base”, SI4000 Sensor (Physics) TDSI Team Purpose: Explore use of bistatic/multistatic radar system to defend Sea Base against airborne attack Design: 360 degree coverage, 200 nm range, .01 m2 RCS Conclusion: – Transmitter power required is too great for performance requirements. Use of pulse compression may reduce – Use as tripwire sensor network for Sea Base FP w/ existing monostatic capabilities 67 ECE Supporting Study Smart Antennae System Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering “Protection of Sea Base”SI4000 - Sensors (ECE) TDSI Team Purpose: Propose ways to achieve active defense by “out sensing” the enemy Methodology: – Threat identification: High density, high speed, low signature – Analysis of data fusion and wireless sensors to improve classification Conclusion: – Smart Antennae System increases range and reliability of wireless sensors – Provides insights into distributed sensor network details. 68 ME (Weapons) Supporting Study MAV Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering “Exploratory Study of the Operationalization of the Flapping Wing MAV” SI4000 Weapons (ME) TDSI Team Purpose: Investigate means to “see first, understand first, strike first”. (MLVs, SpecOps, MAVs) Methodology: – Threat identification: Supersonic cruise missiles*, UCAV swarm, torpedoes – Analysis of defensive systems (FEL / Rail gun, JSF / CSG) Conclusion: – Increasing defensive capability decreases logistic capability – MAVs ideal. (MLVs face land obstacles and SpecOps keeps “man in loop”) – MAV concept: 100s of micro flapping wings deployed from UAV to find missile launchers under canopy – Provides insights into a distributed sensor and the importance of battlespace preparation 69 OR Supporting Study SSGN Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering “Quantifying SSGN Contributions to a Complex Joint Warfare Environment”, LCDR Schoch, JCA White Paper Purpose: Explore increases in force survivability and lethality made possible by SSGN battlespace preparation. Methodology: Circulation Model – MOEs: 1. Additional Missions per Unit 2. Force Multiplying Factor Conclusion: – Battlespace preparation reduces enemy lethality thereby increasing force survivability – Use of SSGN as a means of battlespace preparation will be beneficial for ExWar 70 Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Introduction Methodology Problem Definition Design & Analysis LCDR Higgins LT Tionquiao Modeling Conclusion 71 Simulation Key Findings Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Force Composition – CRUDES-based force and LCS-based force are roughly equivalent Sensor / Weapon Architecture – Distributed Architecture improves survivability – Distributed Architecture conserves weapons – Point and Distributed Architectures are roughly equivalent in Phase II (Assault Phase – close proximity to the threat) Weapon Type – Conceptual weapons require distributed sensor architecture to maximize effectiveness Threats – Distributed Architecture improves survivability particularly against USW threats 72 Picking the Correct Tool for Simulation Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Tools Available – – – – – – JANUS JTLS NSS EINSTein EXTEND Excel Final Selection – EXTEND – NSS JANUS JTLS NSS EINSTein EXTEND EXCEL Ease of use (time risk) Analysis Database Cost Phase I Phase II Phase III Support 73 Proposed Architectures Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Force Composition: – COA A (CRUDES-based w/ SSN) – COA B (LCS-based w/ SSGN) Sensor/Weapon Architecture: – Point (ship-based) – Distributed (UAV/USV/UUV-based) DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS Sensor Force Alternate Force Weapon Weapons Composition Architecture Architecture 1 Conceptual 2 Current 3 Conceptual 4 Current 5 Conceptual 6 Current 7 Conceptual 8 Point COA A Weapons: – Current – Conceptual Current Distributed Point COA B Distributed 74 Force Composition Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering COA A COA B 3 CG 1 CG 3 DDG 1 DDG 3 FFG 12 LCS 1 SSN 1 SSGN CRUDES-based LCS-based 75 Point Sensor/Weapon Architecture Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Point 24 km Above the Water Point text 48 km 740 km 300 m 370 km 96 km Below the Water 76 Distributed Sensor/Weapon Architecture Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering UAV Aerostat Aerostat UUV 50 km 50 km UAV Above the Water 10 km text 36 km 740 km 300 m 370 km UUV 100 km Below the Water 77 Weapons Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Weapon Type Speed (m/s) Max Range (km) Min Range (km) Interceptor 1 Surface to air missile 825 130 5 Interceptor 3 Air to air missile 1320 56 2 Torpedo 1 Surface or sub-surface torpedo 20.6 7.3 .1 Interceptor 2 Surface to air missile 1650 370 5 Interceptor 4 Air to air missile 1980 93 2 Free Electron Laser Directed energy 3x108 10 2 Torpedo 2 Surface or sub-surface torpedo 25.7 11 .1 Current Weapons Conceptual Weapons 78 Measure Of Effectiveness Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Survivability of the Sea Base – % of ExWar ships mission capable – % of transport aircraft mission capable – % of transport surface craft mission capable 79 EXTEND Modeling Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering EXTEND Overview: Process based, discrete event modeling and simulation tool. Provides a macro-view of sensor, weapon, and threat interactions. Design Factors: – Force Composition: COA A, COA B – Sensor and Weapon Architecture: Point, Distributed – Weapons: Current, Conceptual MOEs: % of assets mission capable Inputs: Sensor and search model calculations. Characteristics of weapons, platforms, and sensors. Outputs: # mission kills, # of mission kills by threat 80 EXTEND Model Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering 81 EXTEND Model Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering 82 EXTEND Model Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering 83 EXTEND Model Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering 84 EXTEND Model Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering 85 EXTEND Model Results Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 Current Weapons 100% Average Percent of Assets Mission Capable Point CRUDES 90% Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 80% Distributed LCS Conceptual Weapons 70% Point CRUDES 60% Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 50% Distributed LCS 40% Upper 95% Confidence Interval 30% Lower 95% Confidence Interval 20% 100 Runs 10% ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 86 Distributed Sensors and Weapons Increase Force Survivability Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 Distributed 100% Current Weapons Average Percent of Assets Mission Capable Point CRUDES 90% Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 80% Distributed LCS Point Conceptual Weapons 70% Point CRUDES 60% Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 50% Distributed LCS 40% Upper 95% Confidence Interval 30% Lower 95% Confidence Interval 20% 100 Runs 10% ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 87 CRUDES-based and LCS-based Forces Roughly Equivalent Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 Distributed CRUDES vs. LCS Current Weapons 100% Average Percent of Assets Mission Capable Point CRUDES 90% Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 80% Distributed LCS Conceptual Weapons 70% Point CRUDES Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 60% Distributed LCS Point CRUDES vs. LCS 50% 40% Upper 95% Confidence Interval 30% Lower 95% Confidence Interval 20% 100 Runs 10% ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 88 No Significant Difference Between Current and Conceptual Weapons Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 Current Weapons 100% Average Percent of Assets Mission Capable Point CRUDES 90% Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 80% Distributed LCS Conceptual Weapons 70% Point CRUDES Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 60% Current vs. Conceptual Weapons 50% Distributed LCS 40% Upper 95% Confidence Interval 30% Lower 95% Confidence Interval 20% 100 Runs 10% ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 89 Distributed = Increased ExWar Ship Survivability Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Average Number of Mission Capable ExWar Distributed 6 Number 5 Upper 95% CI 4 Lower 95% CI 3 Point 2 Average Mission Capable 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Alternate Force Architecture 100 Runs CRUDES 7 8 Weapons Current Conceptual LCS 90 SUB/TORP Threat Inflicts Most Ship Mission Kills Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering ~10% of the threat accounts for ~90% of mission kills Distributed architecture mitigates the shooter Comparison of TORP and ASCM Threat 12 Number 10 24.13 72 10 8 6 TORPs Launched Mission Kills due to TORPs 5.33 ASCMs Launched Mission Kills Due to ASCMs 4 2 0.36 1 0.61 0 Point Distributed 0.03 COA B Current Weapons 100 Runs Sensor / Weapon Architecture 91 EXTEND Key Findings Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Force Composition – CRUDES-based and LCS-based protection forces are roughly equivalent Sensor / Weapon Architecture – Distributed Architecture improves survivability of the Sea Base, particularly against USW threats Weapon Type – No significant difference between current and conceptual weapons with respect to Sea Base survivability 92 NSS Modeling Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering NSS Overview: Object oriented, Monte-Carlo modeling and simulation tool. Provides a macro-view of force interactions in a wargame. Design Factors: – COAs: A-CRUDES based, B-LCS based – Sensor / Weapon Architecture: Point, Distributed – Weapon Type: Current, Conceptual MOEs: % assets mission capable Inputs: Platform type and characteristics, asset employment, sensor characteristics Outputs: # of assets surviving, # of weapon launches 93 Force Composition in NSS Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering OBJ B COA A OBJ A Palawan Area of Operations South China Sea LZ Hawk LPS A OBJ A ` LZ Eagle Sulu Sea OBJ B LPS B OBJ B N 25 nm 75 nm COA B OBJ A Sea Echelon Area (50 x 50 nm) 94 Distributed Architecture in NSS Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering South China Sea Aerostat Coverage UAV Perimeter OBJ A Sea Echelon Area N Sulu Sea 95 Confounding Results Between Architectures Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 Current Weapons 100% Average Percent of Assets Mission Capable Point CRUDES 90% Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 80% Distributed LCS Conceptual Weapons 70% Point CRUDES 60% Point LCS Distributed CRUDES 50% Distributed LCS 40% Upper 95% Confidence Interval 30% Lower 95% Confidence Interval 20% 30 Runs 10% ExWar LCU(R) HLCAC AAAV LRHLAC MV-22 96 Distributed Architecture Increases Survivability Along Threat Axis Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering CG DDG FFG ExWar COA A Legend 100% Point / Current Distributed / Current Average Percent of Assets Mission Capable 90% Point / Conceptual Distributed / Conceptual 80% OBJ B 70% OBJ A 60% Th Upper 95% Confidence Interval re at Lower 95% Confidence Ax Interval is 50% 40% 30 Runs 30% 20% 10% CG DDG FFG ExWar 97 Distributed Architecture Provided The Same Level of Force Survivability While Conserving Weapons Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Total Interceptor Launches (Ship Missile, UAV Missile, FEL) # of Launches 600 500 Point 400 Distributed 300 200 100 0 # of Launches CRUDES & Current 180 160 140 120 100 CRUDES & Conceptual LCS & Current LCS & Conceptual ExWar Ship Interceptor Launches Point 80 60 40 20 0 Distributed CRUDES / Current CRUDES / Conceptual LCS / Current LCS / Conceptual 98 Higher Threat from Longer Range Distributed is Better Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering LCS ExWar 100% 200 nm Phase I Excursion ExWar Force Phase I Excursion: Missile Raid • 800 ASCM-3, 80 ACFT-2 • Alternate Force Architectures 5, 7 • Good Enemy targeting (10 UAVs) • All landing craft and aircraft remain onboard Average Percent of Assets Mission Capable 90% COA B Legend 80% Point Distributed 70% 60% 50% 40% Upper 95% Confidence Interval 30% Lower 95% Confidence Interval 20% 30 Runs 10% LCS ExWar 99 NSS Key Findings Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Force Composition – CRUDES-based force and LCS-based force are roughly equivalent. Sensor / Weapon Architecture – Distributed Architecture improves survivability – Distributed Architecture conserves weapons – Difficult to distinguish between Point and Distributed Architectures in Phase II (Assault Phase – close proximity to the threat) Weapon Type – Conceptual Weapons require distributed sensor architecture to maximize effectiveness 100 Assessment of Simulation Tools Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering EXTEND Advantages – Easy to learn – Easy to model complex processes in detail – Visual representations – Flexible – COTS Disadvantages – No database – Difficult to represent every entity NSS Advantages – Detailed, flexible database – Hi-res wargame simulation – Multiple study replication capability – SE management skills learned by working and coordinating with NSS modeler. Disadvantages – Requires expertise – Long processing time – Limited land, amphibious operation capability 101 Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Introduction Methodology Problem Definition LCDR Higgs Design & Analysis Modeling Conclusion 102 Force Protection Study Key Findings Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering CRUDES-based and LCS-based force compositions are roughly equivalent Distributed Architecture improves survivability – Greater reaction times – More engagement opportunities – Particularly effective against USW threats Distributed Architecture conserves weapons Point and Distributed Architectures are roughly equivalent in Phase II (Assault Phase – close proximity to the threat) Conceptual weapons require distributed sensor architecture to maximize effectiveness When paired with the distributed architecture, conceptual weapons offer increased reaction time – Higher weapon speed – Increased maximum ranges 103 Recommended Architecture Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering Distributed Sensors Conceptual Weapons – Aerostat • High frequency radar (~ 20 GHz) – UAVs for 360 degree coverage • High frequency radar (~ 20 GHz) • 3-5 µm IR – – – – FEL (3 x 108 m/s, 10 km) INT-2 (1650 m/s, 370 km) INT-4 (1980 m/s, 93 km) Torpedo 2 (26 m/s, 11 km) Force Composition – LCS-based or CRUDES-based – Cost analysis needed to aid in decision making – UUVs for 360 degree coverage • Active Sonar (~1 KHz) UAV Aerostat Aerostat UUV 50 km 50 km UAV Above the Water 10 km text 36 km 740 km 300 m 370 km UUV 100 km Below the Water 104 Expeditionary Warfare Force Protection System of Systems Conceptual Solution Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering UAV Distributed DistributedSensors Sensors ••Greater Reaction Greater ReactionTimes Times ••More Engagement More EngagementOpportunities Opportunities Aerostat Aerostat 50 km UUV UAV Above the Water 50 km 10 km text 36 km 740 km Distributed DistributedWeapons Weapons ••Shorter distance Shorter distanceto totarget target ••Complement to distributed Complement to distributedsensors sensors 300 m UUV 100 km 370 km OBJ B Below the Water COA B OBJ A Force ForceComposition Composition ••12 LCS 12 LCS++11CG CG++11DDG DDG≅≅33CG CG++33DDG DDG++33FFG FFG ••Unit Cost: 1 DDG-51 ≅ 1.37 TSSE LCS Unit Cost: 1 DDG-51 ≅ 1.37 TSSE LCS Conceptual ConceptualWeapons WeaponsPaired Pairedwith withDistributed DistributedSensors Sensors ••Higher Weapon Speeds Higher Weapon Speeds ••Increased IncreasedMaximum MaximumRanges Ranges 105