Innovation and Prices Jordi Jaumandreu∗ Shuheng Lin† Boston University Boston University April 5, 2014 (Preliminary and incomplete) Abstract This paper investigates the impact of process and product innovations on the prices set by firms. It draws on the prices reported by a sample of manufacturing firms over an extended period of time. We assume prices are set with a markup on (short run) marginal cost and hence they reflect variations in production efficiency, both across firms and over time. Productivity, in turn, shifts with firms’ process and product innovations. Preliminary GMM estimates of the model show that, after controlling for cyclical margins, productivity pushes down prices at a very sensible average pace of about 1.5% a year. An increase in unobserved productivity decreases prices in relationship to the observed part of marginal cost. Firms that introduce new process, product or both tend to have higher productivity increases and thus even lower prices, but this is not a general rule. The refinement of the model in several directions is expected to give new insights on these findings. ∗ † Dep. of Economics, 270 Bay State Road, Boston, MA01522, USA. E-mail: jordij@bu.edu. Dep. of Economics, 270 Bay State Road, Boston, MA02215, USA. E-mail: slin619@bu.edu. 1 1. Introduction. This paper investigates the impact of process and product innovations on the output prices set by firms. It uses prices reported over an extended period of time by a sample of manufacturing firms. We assume prices are set with a markup on (short run) marginal cost and hence they have to reflect variations in efficiency of production, both across firms and over time. Productivity, in turn, shifts with the introduction of process and product innovations by firms. Models almost universally assume firms set prices with reference to marginal cost, although also suppose that optimal markups can widely change with market structure, firm behavior and other factors.1 Marginal cost, both in the short and long run, depend on firm level productivity that can evolve according to its innovation activities and, in particular, the introduction of process and product innovations.2 This level of productivity is unobserved. Process innovations, aimed at reducing cost, are expected to shift the marginal cost function downwards. However, the effect of product innovation (new or improved good) on unobserved productivity is more ambiguous. Product innovations modify the product mix and as a result shift the marginal cost functions in unexpected ways.3 As a simple example, when “learning by doing” is important, firms may lack the experience in producing the new good and unobserved productivity is likely to go down. There are many complexities in the relationship between innovation and prices, and we discuss now four crucial ones we hope to address. The first two are related to the difficulties in measuring marginal cost, and the other two concern the assessment of its transmission to prices. First, as remarked above, marginal cost includes the unobserved component that we know with the name of individual or firm-level idiosyncratic productivity. We should 1 Hall and Hicht (1939) is a departure from this view, in what Ellison (2006) characterizes as an early contribution to behavioral industrial organization. 2 Peters, Roberts, Vuong and Fryges (2013) model firms’ marginal cost as depending on process and product innovation in the way that we are going to adopt in this paper. Aw, Roberts and Xu (2011) and Doraszelsky and Jaumandreu (2013) are papers in which endogenous efficiency depends on R&D expenditure. 3 In practice, firms produce a range of products and their cost function depends on a given product mix. 2 model this component and its dependence on innovation. Second, marginal cost may have a second component typically unobservable that are input adjustment costs. 4 Third, prices may be set in relation to a particular marginal cost (short-run, long-run, expected) and only be updated at time intervals. In fact, the possibility of price rigidity with its consequence of a discontinuous time pattern of markup adjustments has been the object of exploration in the literature.5 This may create a selection problem in estimation because the errors corresponding to observed adjustments are likely to become correlated with the included variables, particularly innovation. The last complexity concerns the modelling of the markup. This is crucial since innovation may lower the elasticity of demand, in which case prices are affected as the result of the optimal adjustment of margins. At this stage we are going to abstract from all these complexities but the first. In our baseline model, firms set prices with a markup over marginal cost. The markup is modelled to only have a cyclical feature, and the marginal cost has an unobserved component that evolves according to an endogenous Markov process impacted by the firm-level innovations. Our plan is to extend the model to encompass the testing (and may be modelling) of each one of the other aspects: input adjustment costs, non-continuous price adjustments, and endogenous markup. There are at least three reasons for studying the impact of innovation on prices. First of all, how technological change via firm-level innovation transmits to prices is relevant for understanding the working of many economic forces. For example, prices play a crucial role in the allocation of resources and growth. When a process innovation induces a price decrease, market demand for the good is expected to increase. As a result, the demand for inputs required for production is expected to increase by more than what is needed to compensate for any input displacement provoked by technology. However, the magni4 5 For a recent assessment on input adjustment costs see Hall (2006). Sheshinski and Weiss (1983) provided a formal microeconomic model of price adjustment in the presence of adjustment costs, and Cecchetti (1986) was the first to assess adjustments empirically. Klenow and Malin (2010) review recent evidence on firm-level price sluggishness. An alternative explanation and modelling for price rigidity is collusion (see Athey and Bagwell, 2008) but we are going to exclude this possibility by assuming monopolistic competition. 3 tude and how complete, rapid and heterogeneous is this mechanism is something to assess empirically. Second, the quantities used in productivity analysis are, almost without exception, obtained by deflating firm revenue by a price index. When an industry-wide index is used, it misses out what is left in the difference between the firm-level and the general indices and may get biased estimates.6 However, are all the problems solved with firm-level price indices? To illustrate this is not necessarily the case, let us consider for simplicity the scenario of constant returns to scale.7 Under CRTS, revenue deflated by a firm-level price index only reflects productivity that has been passed onto prices. Hence, only by supposing firm-level prices fully reflect the variations in productivity we can conclude that these variations are present in the quantity index obtained when dividing revenue by price. It is thus crucial to explore whether prices set by firms exhibit this behavior. If not, firm-level indices are not sufficient to eliminate biases in the measurement of productivity. Third, how well prices reflect productivity improvements is important for the measurement of welfare. On the one hand, if prices accurately reflect technical efficiency improvements then they can be used to measure increases in consumer surplus coming from innovation. However, it is much more difficult to measure the effect of product improvements that directly affect consumer utility. There is an ongoing literature about how the methods applied by Statistical Offices with respect to new goods may impact this measurement.8 One relevant dimension of this problem is just to understand how firms price product improvements in practice. To estimate our model we use the prices reported over an extended period of time by a 6 This problem was firstly pointed out by Klette and Griliches (1996). Later, it has been at least addressed by Foster, Haltiwanger and Syverson (2008), De Loecker (2011) and Katayama, Lu and Tybout (2011), who propose different ways to deal with it. 7 Let the production function be = where stands for idiosyncratic productivity and shows CRTS. Cost is = ()− , where represents prices, and marginal cost = ()− Under a constant markup, revenue is = = ()− −1 = () −1 so it does not depend on productivity. If we divide by all productivity is brought up to the result by the price index. 8 See, for example, Pakes (2003). 4 sample of Spanish manufacturing firms. We use data on ten (unbalanced panel) industry samples, which in total amount to more than 2,300 manufacturing firms and 17,000 observations, corresponding to the period 1990-2006. We have firm-level price indices for each firm, constructed from the reported yearly output price increases in the main market, and we observe the moment of the process and product innovations introduced by firms as well as other relevant information. Preliminary GMM estimates of the model show that innovation effectively reduces prices. Controlling for cyclical margins, we get plausible estimates of the marginal cost function parameters (that are also the parameters of the underlying production function). Unobserved productivity, estimated as an endogenous Markov process reducing marginal cost, has an impact on prices, decreasing them in relationship to the observed part of marginal cost. Firms that introduce new process and/or product have higher productivity increases and thus lower prices, but this is not a general rule. The refinement of the model in several directions is expected to give new insights on these findings. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we explain with detail the model and discuss its identification. In Section 3, we briefly report the parametric specification that we are currently applying in estimation and the method of estimation. Section 4 briefly explains the data and Section 5 presents preliminary results. Section 6 are a few concluding remarks. 2. Model and identification. We assume that firm operates in a monopolistically competitive market and sets the price with a markup on (short-run) marginal cost. By monopolistic competition we understand that each firm faces a downward-sloping demand for its product, makes no profit in the long run equilibrium, and a price change by one firm has only a negligible effect on the demand of any other firm (Tirole, 1989). How large is demand for each product may differ by exogenous reasons and the demand for the product of a firm may change over time by the effect of exogenous and endogenous shifters such as well as the state of the market. A firm 5 knows its cost function, which includes among its arguments its specific level of efficiency. The firm looks at the state of its demand and decides simultaneously the price and quantity that maximize profits, determining the quantity of inputs to be employed. In our first approximation we are going to suppose that the demand elasticity with respect to price, and hence the markups, only change according to a firm specific indicator. This gives, by no means, an idyosincratic variation to this elasticity. So price is = exp( ) − 1 (1) where is an error orthogonal to all information available when the firm takes the decisions. We comment more on this error below. Let us first specify marginal cost. Assume that the firm production function is = ( ) exp( ) where represents the Hicks neutral level of efficiency of firm , that we will simply call productivity. We assume and variable factors and take as given. Variable cost minimization implies the cost function = ( exp( )) where and stand for the prices of the variable inputs and respectively Assuming that short-run returns to scale (returns given capital) are not constant, marginal cost is = ( exp( )) exp(− ) = ( exp( )) On the other hand, by Shephard’s lemma, optimal materials choice conditional on output is = = ( exp( )) Inverting the latest equation for exp( ) and using the resulting expression to replace exp( ) in marginal cost, we get = ( ) exp(− ) = ( ) exp(− ) 6 (2) where = { } is a vector of observable variables. Under the above conditions, price can be written as = ( ) exp(− + ) − 1 or, in logs, as = ln + ( ) − + − 1 This equation shows that we expect prices to structurally evolve according to productivity and that we should be able to pick up this relationship as long as we control adequately by markups and marginal cost. We want to estimate endogenous productivity, or productivity that is (at least partly) the result of the innovation effort done by firms (Doraszelski and Jaumandreu, 2013). Assuming, as in all the literature subsequent to Olley and Pakes (1996), that follows a first order Markov process, we model productivity as depending on past productivity and the shifts induced by the introduction of process and product innovations (as in Peters, Roberts, Vuong and Fryges, 2013). That is, = ( −1 ) + where −1 and −1 are measures of the process and product innovations introduced by firm , is an unknown function aimed at picking up both the path dependence of productivity as well as the unspecified impact of the innovations, and a random innovation orthogonal to all the arguments of (·) Our structural model linking prices to innovation is hence = ln + ( ) − ( −1 ) − + − 1 (3) The model cannot be estimated as it is because it includes unobservable lagged productivity −1 interrelated with the observables and In addition, −1 is likely to be correlated with most of the explanatory variables. In order to estimate the model, we will employ an Olley and Pakes (1996) type of procedure, replacing the unobservable −1 by an expression in terms of observables. 7 The choice of which expression to use is, however, not trivial. The inclusion of the disturbance implies that we only know the price decided by the firm up to this error: = ∗ exp( ) By means of this disturbance we want to allow both for possible measurement errors and arbitrary factors, unexpected at the time of setting the price, that may induce a different observed price. As in the structural estimation of production functions, a natural choice for the expression to be used would be an inverted demand relationship. For example, profit maximization implies the demand for materials = ( ∗ (1 − 1 1 ) ∗ (1 − ) ) But, as this equation makes clear, demands for labor and materials include price and specified in terms of observed price will include the error Having an unobservable in the expression to use in the (·) function, even if it is uncorrelated with everything, implies a problem for the identification of the model.9 If we assume that we observe however, we have more than one solution.10 A first possibility is inverting the (lagged) conditional demand for materials, that is (−1 −1 −1 −1 ) −1 = ln −1 − ln −1 Another possibility is directly inverting the production function −1 = ln −1 − ln (−1 −1 −1 ) Let us write in general −1 = (−1 ), noticing that the set −1 changes with the different alternatives. The estimable model can then be written as 9 Scholars estimating production functions tend to avoid this complication by assuming that all prices are the same for all firms and can be replaced by dummies. In this case prices disappear from the demand for materials, that can be written = ( ) See, for example, Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) or De Loecker (2011). 10 We can suppose, for example, that the price at which the choices were done is not observed, and we observe, instead, the actual price that has been finally adopted to effectively sell the planned and produced quantity. Revenue and price are then affected by the same error, but quantity obtained by deflating revenue at the current price gives the correct quantity. This matches well with the dominant idea that price is the most flexible instrument in the hands of the firms. 8 = ln + ( ) − ((−1 ) ) − + − 1 (4) Until now we have developed the model with a minimum of functional form or distributional assumptions. Is the model identified at this level of generality? To answer this question notice first that the set contains only one endogenous variable, the input quantity and the set −1 none is the only variable that is determined once the innovation is known. All the rest of the variables are likely to be correlated with productivity but, once the predictable part of productivity has been specified in terms of observables, it only remains unobserved the value of the innovation This innovation is only revealed after the values of these variables have been chosen. This is true for the innovation variables because they are the (partly random) outcome of past R&D investments. And this is true for the input prices under the assumption that they are determined in competitive markets and hence given for the firm. The discussion about identification can start by asking ourselves if we have instruments for The answer is yes, but the available instruments depend on the alternative −1 sets. If we are replacing −1 by the conditional demand for materials, a natural instrument for is −1 Variable −1 is excluded from the inverted conditional demand, so it doesn’t appear in the equation, and according to the model is correlated with −1 and hence If we are using the production function, two natural instruments are the lagged input prices −1 and −1 With this kind of substitution there are no input prices in the expression that replaces −1 and lagged input prices are, however, related to Since is correlated to −1 , it is also correlated with the lagged prices that determine −1 The model is hence identified in very general conditions. In what follows we use a particular parametric specification that makes the model particularly simple and identification straightforward. 9 3. Estimation. We consider the Cobb-Douglas production function = 0 + + + + so the short-run marginal cost function in terms of materials is = − + (1 − − ) + (1 − ) + − where = − 0 − ln( + ) − ln + ln In the empirical application we are going to use the in-homogeneous Markov process = + ( −1 ) + So, from the pricing equation, the Markov process assumption, and the use of the lagged inverted production function to substitute for −1 , we have the estimating equation − − + (1 − − ) + (1 − ) + − 1 −(−1 − −1 − − −1 ) − + = + ln (5) where we are going to specify (·) as a complete polynomial of order three in its arguments. Using −1 as a shorthand for −1 − −1 − − −1 we may write (·) in the following way11 (−1 −1 −1 ) = 1 −1 + 2 2−1 + 3 3−1 + 4 + 5 + 6 −1 · + 7 2−1 · + 8 −1 · + 9 2−1 · + 10 · + 11 −1 · · To estimate the markup, we are going to use expression ln 11 1 + exp( ) = ln = ln(1 + exp( )) − − 1 exp( ) We implicitly collapse the constant of the unknown function in the constant of the equation. 10 which restricts elasticity to be greater than one while allows for its cyclical fluctuation according to the firm-level state of the market indicator or market dynamism. We are going to use a nonlinear GMM estimator. Writing the error of the equation as a function of all parameters () our moments have the form [( ) ()] = [( )(− + )] where ( ) is a vector of functions of the exogenous variables. 4. Data. We estimate the model with data on ten (unbalanced panel) industry samples, which in total amount to more than 2,300 manufacturing firms and 17,000 observations, corresponding to the period 1990-2006. All variables come from the survey ESEE (Encuesta Sobre Estrategias Empresariales), a firm-level panel survey of Spanish manufacturing starting in 1990. At the beginning of this survey, firms with fewer than 200 workers were sampled randomly by industry and size strata, retaining 5%, while firms with more than 200 workers were all requested to participate, and the positive answers represented more or less a self-selected 70%. To preserve representation, samples of newly created firms were added to the initial sample every subsequent year. At the same time, there are exits from the sample, coming from both death and attrition. The survey then provides a random sample of Spanish manufacturing with the largest firms oversampled. Information on the firms include, in addition to the usual output and input quantity measures, the firm-level variations for the price of the output and the price of the inputs, the introduction of technological (process and product) innovations, and the indicator of the state of the market market dynamism. Tables 1 and 2 report the size of the samples and some descriptive statistics. Table 1 is focused on prices. The evolution of prices over the whole period is moderate, but heterogeneous enough to motivate the exploration of the role of innovation in their evolution. An OLS regression of the growth of prices on the dummies of process and product innovation, controlling by time dummies, turns out to be hardly informative: almost no effect 11 is statistically significant. Table 2 is focused on innovation. The introduction of process and product innovations is more heterogeneous. Firms tend to introduce more process than product innovations, at the approximate paces of one innovation every three and four years respectively. Innovation is, as expected, especially important in the more technology intensive sectors 3, 4, 5 and 6. 5. Preliminary results. We have carried out estimates of equation (5) with very sensible results that allow us a first look at the impacts of innovation on prices. In what follows we first present the estimates and then derive the implications for the productivity growth and price variations due to the impact of innovation. We estimate equation (5) by nonlinear GMM using the following set ( ) of instruments: constant, time dummies (15), lagged input prices (price of materials and wage), a polynomial of order three in lagged capital and labor, lagged materials, the two dummies of lagged innovation, and the interaction of each of these dummies, as well as their product, with each one of the lagged inputs. In industries 1,7,8 and 10 we also include the square and the cube of materials.12 And, in industry 8, contemporaneous capital.13 This gives a total of 36 instruments, sometimes enlarged up to 39. We have to estimate 4 parameters that enter nonlinearly: the parameters of the marginal cost/production functions, and , the parameter on the variable market dynamism in the modeling of the markups. We have other 27 parameters that enter linearly (constant, 15 time dummies and 11 polynomial coefficients), for whose estimation we apply the procedure of “concentrating out.” This gives us a minimum of 5 overidentifying restrictions that allow to test for the specification. The results of the preliminary estimates are summarized in Table 3. To reach these re12 We find useful to avoid raising materials to the powers 2 and 3 in the rest of industries. Materials is a variable likely to be subject to errors of measurement whose role might be exacerbated when raised to powers. 13 Contemporaneous capital is a legitimate instrument, that we try to avoid because of the likely effects the errors in its measurement. 12 sults, the modelling of the markup by means of the variable market dynamism was crucial. According to the signs, five industries tend to have procyclical margins and other five countercyclical. We omit the estimates from the table because the coefficient is only precisely estimated in one industry. However, the presence of the variable is very important for the plausibility of the rest of estimates. This points to the presence of a high heterogeneity, only partially picked up by our current specification. We should also emphasize that we carry out the regressions with the structural modelling of the margins (demand elasticity changes with the state of the market), but the variable works also quite well when it is introduced linearly. This suggests that some cases could also be picking up (or be counterbalanced by) adjustment costs. We leave this for future research. The parameter estimates of the marginal cost/production functions, reported in columns (1) to (3), are quite sensible, although they contain a few minor flaws. The coefficients on capital are small and imprecisely estimated in industries 6, 7 and 8. And the materials coefficients are too small in industries 4 and 10. When some coefficient is underestimated, seems to be related to some overestimation of the rest of the coefficients. In all industries, returns to scale are very close to constant. The overidentifying restrictions tests (columns (4) and (5)) strongly support the specification in all industries at very high probability values. Despite the preliminary characteristics of the parameter estimation, we have tentatively estimated the distribution of and subjected its values to some descriptive exercises. We first compute the individual values of productivity growth rates, given by ∆ = − −1 . Then we split the industry samples into observations corresponding to the introduction of a process innovation only, observations corresponding to the introduction of a product innovation only, observations corresponding to the introduction of both kind of innovations and, finally, observations corresponding to moments without any kind of innovation. Finally, we calculate weighted averages of the rates of growth, using as weights the firms sales shares lagged two periods and replicating the observations for the small firms (less than 200 workers) as indicated by the known starting representativeness in the survey of each kind 13 of firm.14 The results are reported in columns (6) to (9) of the table. To read properly the innovation effects recall that we are modelling the unobserved part of marginal cost. We call this part unobserved productivity. Productivity reduces marginal cost and, under the assumption currently embedded in the model that this reduction is perfectly passed on prices, reduces prices. A positive impact of innovation on productivity implies a decrease in prices, and a negative impact of innovation on productivity implies an increase of prices. Of course these decreases or increases are in addition to the price variation induced by the observed part of marginal cost. In fact, we are estimating productivity as what remains to be explained after deducing the part corresponding to observed marginal costs (and margins). The own prices are giving us then the indication about what happens with productivity. Importantly, the model is estimated in levels, but its implications scrutinized in first differences. First, and importantly, the estimations show that productivity pushes down prices at a very sensible pace of about 1.5% a year. Both process and product innovations increase efficiency and push down prices. The same do the process and product innovations that are implemented together. Only in a few cases (5 out of 30) innovations imply price increases and there is only one case of significant magnitude (product innovation in industry 6). The variation in productivity in the absence of innovations also decreases prices. If one excludes the few negative averages, the observations without innovation convey a price reduction of about 1.3% a year, the observations with either a process or a product innovation of about 1.8% and the observations with both of about 1.9%. According to what we have said before, there is not a particular relationship to expect between the increases in productivity when there is no innovation and when there is product innovation. Hence, the efficiency increases in columns (8) and (9) can be greater or lower than the increases reported in column (6). In fact, price reductions when there is product innovation are less intense that when there is no innovation in four industries (in one case there is even a price increase). And price reductions when there is process and product 14 Since the proportions were approximately 5% and 70% this implies replicating the smallest firms 14 times. 14 innovation are less intense than when there is no innovation in five cases (two cases with a slight price increase). More surprisingly, price reductions induced by process innovation seem to be more intense than the price reductions in the absence of innovation in only half of the cases. We have no straightforward explanation for this, a finding whose robustness should be checked with the refinement of the model. 6. Concluding remarks We have started an investigation on the impact of process and product innovations on the prices set by firms, using the prices reported over an extended period of time by a sample of manufacturing firms. Our baseline model is simple: firme set prices over short run marginal costs, markups are only allowed to show idyosincratic cyclical variation, marginal cost has an unobserved component that evolves according to an endogenous Markov process impacted by the firm-level innovations and is passed on its integrity to prices. It is crucial to explore whether prices set by firms effectively exhibit this behavior. If not, idiosyncratic productivity variation would tend not to be timely passed on to the quantity indices used in the measurement of productivity and would bias the estimates. Our plan is to extend the model to encompass the testing (and probably modelling) of each one of the complex aspects that still remain: input adjustment costs, non-continuous price adjustments, and endogenous markup variations. But, importantly, the preliminary estimations show that productivity pushes down prices at a very sensible average pace of about 1.5% a year. Both process and product innovations, as well as process and product innovations that are implemented together, increase efficiency and push down prices. A series of questions remain over the relative magnitude of the impacts.The refinement of the model in the mentioned directions is expected to give new insights on our findings. 15 References Athey, S. and Bagwell, K. (2008), "Collusion With Persistent Cost Shocks," Econometrica, 76, 493-540 Cecchetti, S. G. (1986), "The Frequency of Price Adjustment : A study of the Newsstand Prices of Magazines," Journal of Econometrics, 31, 255-274 De Loecker, J. (2011), "Product Differentiation, Multiproduct Firms, and Estimating the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Productivity", Econometrica, 79, 1407-1451 Doraszelski, U. and J Jaumandreu (2013), "R&D and Productivity: Estimating Endogenous Productivity," Review of Economic Studies, 80. 1338-1383. Ellison, G. (2006), "Bounded Rationality in Industrial Organization," mimeo, MIT. Foster, L., Haltiwanger, J. and Syverson, C. (2008), "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability," American Economic Review, 98, 394-425. Hall, R. E. (2006), "Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, 899-927. Hall, R.L. and Hicht, C.J. (1939), "Price Theory and Business Behavior," Oxford Economic Papers, 12-45. Katayama, H., Lu, S. and Tybout, J. R. (2009), "Firm-level Productivity Studies: Illusions and a Solution," International Journal of Industrial Organization, 27, 403-413. Klenow, P. J. and Malin, B. A. (2010), "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting", Working paper no. 15826, NBER, Cambridge. Klette, T. J. and Griliches, Z. (1996), "The Inconsistency of Common Scale Estimators When Output Prices Are Unobserved and Endogenous", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 343-61. 16 Levinsohn, J. and Petrin, A. (2003), "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables", Review of Economic Studies, 70, 317-341. Olley, S. and A. Pakes (1996), "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, 64, 1263-1298. Peters, B., M. Roberts, V.A. Vuong and H. Fryges (2013), "Estimating Dynamic R&D Demand: An Analysis of Cost and Long-Run Benefits," mimeo. Sheshinski and Weiss (1983), "Optimal pricing policy under stochastic inflation", Review of Economic Studies, 50, 513-529. Tirole, J. (1989), The Theory of Industrial Organization, MIT Press. 17 Industry Table 1: Sample size and price descriptive statistics, 1991-2006 Sample size Price indices OLS of price growth on innovation (time dums. incl.) Obs. Firms Log (s.d.) % Growth (s.d.) Constant (s.d.) Process (s.d.) Product (s.d.) Standard error (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1. Metal and metal products 2365 313 0.106 (0.185) 0.017 (0.052) 0.008 0.006 -0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.050 2. Non-metallic minerals 1270 163 0.066 (0.199) 0.012 (0.058) -0.003 0.011 -0.002 0.004 0.002 0.004 0.057 3. Chemical products 2168 299 0.045 (0.197) 0.008 (0.055) 0.014 0.005 -0.003 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.053 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 1411 178 0.122 (0.150) 0.015 (0.026) 0.023 0.004 -0.002 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.026 5. Electrical goods 1505 209 0.051 (0.186) 0.008 (0.046) 0.015 0.007 -0.004 0.003 -0.004 0.004 0.045 6. Transport equipment 1206 161 0.053 (0.136) 0.008 (0.031) 0.011 0.010 -0.007 0.002 0.005 0.002 0.030 7. Food, drink and tobacco 2455 327 0.160 (0.188) 0.021 (0.054) 0.037 0.005 -0.001 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.053 8. Textile, leather and shoes 2368 335 0.119 (0.171) 0.015 (0.042) 0.015 0.005 -0.001 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.042 9. Timber and furniture 1445 207 0.128 (0.141) 0.020 (0.031) 0.022 0.005 0.001 0.002 0.010 0.002 0.030 10. Paper and printing products 1414 183 0.124 (0.232) 0.017 (0.074) 0.018 0.009 -0.007 0.004 0.005 0.004 0.069 Industry Table 2: Descriptive statistics on the introduction of innovations, 1991-2006 Proportion of obs. Obs. with process Obs. with product Firms with process Proc. (s.d.) Prod. (s.d.) Stable (%) Occas (%). Stable (%) Occas (%). Stable (%) Occas. (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Firms with product Stable (%) Occas.(%) (9) (10) 1. Metal and metal products 0.373 (0.484) 0.184 (0.387) 151 (6.4) 732 (31.0) 66 (2.8) 369 (15.6) 27 (8.6) 196 (62.6) 12 (3.8) 126 (40.3) 2. Non-metallic minerals 0.265 (0.442) 0.172 (0.378) 31 (2.4) 306 (24.1) 18 (1.4) 201 (15.8) 7 (4.3) 96 (58.9) 4 (2.5) 72 (44.2) 3. Chemical products 0.403 (0.490) 0.345 (0.476) 121 (5.6) 752 (34.7) 152 (7.0) 597 (27.5) 29 (9.7) 197 (65.9) 32 (10.7) 175 (58.5) 4. Agric. and ind. machinery 0.332 (0.471) 0.354 (0.478) 85 (6.0) 384 (27.2) 79 (5.6) 420 (29.8) 17 (9.6) 96 (53.9) 14 (7.9) 89 (50.0) 5. Electrical goods 0.375 (0.484) 0.365 (0.481) 68 (4.5) 496 (33.0) 164 (10.9) 385 (25.6) 16 (7.7) 131 (62.7) 33 (15.8) 94 (45.0) 6. Transport equipment 0.464 (0.499) 0.313 (0.464) 149 (12.4) 411 (34.1) 105 (8.7) 273 (22.6) 32 (19.9) 97 (60.2) 21 (13.0) 82 (50.9) 7. Food, drink and tobacco 0.305 (0.461) 0.223 (0.416) 148 (6.0) 602 (24.5) 141 (5.7) 407 (16.6) 31 (9.5) 182 (55.7) 28 (8.6) 149 (45.6) 8. Textile, leather and shoes 0.242 (0.482) 0.230 (0.421) 71 (3.0) 502 (16.5) 122 (5.2) 422 (17.8) 17 (5.1) 158 (47.2) 21 (6.3) 117 (34.9) 9. Timber and furniture 0.285 (0.451) 0.257 (0.437) 71 (4.9) 341 (23.6) 41 (2.8) 331 (22.9) 13 (6.3) 110 (53.1) 11 (5.3) 96 (46.4) 10. Paper and printing products 0.293 (0.455) 0.141 (0.348) 37 (2.6) 378 (26.7) 17 (1.2) 182 (12.9) 7 (3.8) 118 (64.5) 5 (2.7) 60 (32.8) Industry Table 3: GMM estimation results and average growth Overidentifying Coefficients (std. err.) restrictions test Productivity increase/Price reduction Capital Labor Materials 2 ( ) p val. No inn. Proc. only Prod. only Both (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 1. Metals and metal products 0.206 (0.048) 0.355 (0.034) 0.461 (0.059) 4.980 (8) 0.760 0.020 0.028 0.026 0.022 2. Non-metallic minerals 0.109 (0.065) 0.360 (0.032) 0.526 (0.083) 3.390 (6) 0.759 0.025 0.017 0.008 0.011 3. Chemical products 0.247 (0.051) 0.350 (0.045) 0.407 (0.055) 0.539 (6) 0.997 0.016 0.023 0.025 0.021 4. Agric. and ind. Machinery 0.374 (0.172) 0.319 (0.048) 0.277 (0.180) 2.260 (6) 0.855 0.014 0.010 0.028 -0.005 5. Electrical and electronic products 0.194 (0.055) 0.347 (0.036) 0.485 (0.045) 2.656 (6) 0.851 0.018 0.029 0.014 0.044 6. Transport equipment 0.044 (0.065) 0.218 (0.013) 0.806 (0.073) 4.858 (6) 0.562 0.017 0.013 -0.034 0.014 7. Food, drink and tobacco 0.038 (0.032) 0.306 (0.053) 0.704 (0.059) 5.289 (8) 0.726 0.006 -0.005 0.023 0.021 8. Textile, leather and shoes 0.043 (0.023) 0.359 (0.045) 0.614 (0.054) 5.065 (9) 0.829 0.000 0.008 0.024 0.009 9. Timber and furniture 0.111 (0.090) 0.262 (0.021) 0.569 (0.077) 5.855 (6) 0.990 0.001 0.017 0.009 -0.004 10. Paper and printing products 0.332 (0.043) 0.319 (0.017) 0.262 (0.041) 7.545 (8) 0.479 0.013 -0.002 0.001 0.009