Health Care Spending: What the Future Will Look Like
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TABLE A-I
Government Health Care Spending and Gross
Domestic Product per Capita in 1970 and 2002
(2002 U.S. Dollars)
1970 Per Capita
Gov’t Health
Spending
Australia
Austria
Canada
Germany
Japan
Norway
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
$360
$390
$590
$660
$460
$650
$180
$940
$530
$480
1970
Per Capita
GDP
$11,920
$11,830
$12,070
$14,800
$14,420
$16,030
$7,480
$15,830
$13,470
$19,080
1970 Gov’t Health
2002 Gov’t Health
Spending
2002 Per Capita
2002
Spending
as a Percent of
Gov’t Health
Per Capita as a Percent of
1970 GDP
Spending
GDP
2002 GDP
3.0%
3.3%
4.9%
4.5%
3.2%
4.0%
2.3%
5.9%
3.9%
2.5%
$1,320
$1,380
$1,550
$2,070
$2,080
$3,370
$860
$2,130
$1,690
$2,360
$20,810
$25,570
$23,070
$24,140
$31,190
$42,030
$15,690
$26,990
$26,230
$36,010
6.4%
5.4%
6.7%
8.6%
6.7%
8.0%
5.5%
7.9%
6.4%
6.6%
Note: Numbers rounded.
Source: Laurence Kotlikoff and Christian Hagist, “Who’s Going Broke?” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 11833, December 2005, p. 29.
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The National Center for Policy Analysis
TABLE I
Per Capita Growth of Government Health
Care Spending and Gross Domestic Product
(1970-2002)
Australia
Austria
Canada
Germany
Japan
Norway
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
Average
Average Annual Real
Health Care Growth
4.1%
4.0%
3.1%
3.6%
4.9%
5.3%
5.1%
2.6%
3.7%
5.1%
4.1%
Average
Annual Real
GDP Growth
1.8%
2.4%
2.0%
1.5%
2.4%
3.1%
2.3%
1.7%
2.1%
2.0%
2.1%
Note: Numbers rounded.
Source: Laurence Kotlikoff and Christian Hagist, “Who’s Going Broke?” National
Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 11833, December 2005, p. 26.
Health Care Spending: What the Future Will Look Like
TABLE IV
Elderly Share of the Population
Australia
Austria
Canada
Germany
Japan
Norway
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
Average
2002
12%
16%
13%
17%
18%
15%
16%
17%
16%
12%
15%
2030
20%
24%
24%
26%
30%
21%
24%
26%
23%
19%
23%
2050
24%
29%
27%
31%
37%
24%
34%
29%
26%
21%
26%
2070
25%
31%
27%
31%
38%
25%
30%
29%
27%
22%
26%
Note: Numbers rounded.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations, World Population Prospects:
The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision,
Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the
United Nations Seretariat, March 2005.
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The National Center for Policy Analysis
TABLE II
Health Care Benefit Age Profiles1
Australia
Austria
Canada
Germany
Japan
Norway
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
0-14
0.60
0.28
0.43
0.48
0.44
0.57
0.57
0.43
1.08
0.88
15-19
0.57
0.28
0.61
0.43
0.22
0.34
0.39
0.43
0.65
0.82
20-49
0.64
0.46
0.65
0.58
0.43
0.52
0.48
0.63
0.76
0.77
50-64
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
65-69
1.81
1.42
2.45
1.52
1.70
1.70
1.50
1.50
2.07
5.01
70-74
2.16
1.75
2.44
1.80
2.20
2.21
1.50
1.50
2.07
5.02
75-79
3.90
1.98
4.97
2.11
2.76
2.69
1.96
1.96
3.67
8.52
80+
4.23
2.17
7.54
2.48
3.53
3.41
1.99
1.99
4.65
11.53
Note: Numbers rounded.
1
Ratio of average spending on individuals in each age group relative to an individual age 50 to 64.
Source: Laurence Kotlikoff and Christian Hagist, “Who’s Going Broke?” National Bureau of Economic Research,
Working Paper No. 11833, December 2005, p. 25.
Health Care Spending: What the Future Will Look Like
TABLE A-II
Average Annual Growth of Government Health Care
Spending and Gross Domestic Product, Adjusted for Inflation
(1970-2002)
Gov’t Health Care
Spending Growth
Australia
Austria
Canada
Germany
Japan
Norway
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
Average
5.6%
4.2%
4.3%
4.6%
5.5%
5.8%
5.8%
2.9%
3.9%
6.2%
4.9%
GDP
Growth
3.2%
2.7%
3.2%
2.5%
3.1%
3.6%
3.0%
2.0%
2.3%
3.1%
2.9%
Percent Gov’t
Ratio of Total
Health Care
Gov’t Health Care
Spending Growth Spending Growth to
due to Benefit Growth
GDP Growth
3.7%
3.7%
2.3%
3.3%
3.6%
5.0%
4.6%
2.4%
3.5%
4.6%
3.7%
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.7
2.0
1.7
Ratio of Gov’t Health
Care Spending Growth
Due to Aging Alone to
GDP Growth Rate
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.4
Note: Numbers rounded.
Source: Laurence Kotlikoff and Christian Hagist, “Who’s Going Broke?” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 11833, December 2005, p. 29.
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6
The National Center for Policy Analysis
TABLE V
Government Health Care Spending as a
Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
Australia
Austria
Canada
Germany
Japan
Norway
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
2002
6.4%
5.4%
6.7%
8.6%
6.7%
8.0%
5.5%
7.9%
6.4%
6.6%
2025
11.5%
8.3%
9.5%
14.7%
11.7%
13.9%
10.5%
10.2%
10.0%
13.8%
2050
21.1%
13.0%
13.5%
25.6%
18.2%
25.0%
21.4%
12.9%
16.0%
32.7%
Note: Numbers rounded.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Laurence Kotlikoff and Christian Hagist, “Who’s
Going Broke?” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No.
11833, December 2005, p. 29.
Health Care Spending: What the Future Will Look Like
TABLE III
Government Health Care Spending as a
Percentage of Total Health Care Spending
Australia
Austria
Canada
Germany
Japan
Norway
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
1970
60.5%
63.0%
69.9%
72.8%
69.8%
91.6%
65.4%
86.0%
87.0%
36.4%
Note: Numbers rounded.
Source: OECD Health Data 2002.
2000
72.4%
69.7%
72.0%
75.1%
76.7%
85.2%
69.9%
83.8%1
81.0%
44.3%
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The National Center for Policy Analysis
FIGURE I
Reasons for the Growth of Government Health Care Spending
(1970-2002)
Australia
Norway
Austria
Spain
Canada
Sweden
Germany
Japan
Note: Numbers rounded.
Due to Aging
Due to Benefit Expansion
United Kingdom
United States
Source: Table A-II.
Health Care Spending: What the Future Will Look Like
FIGURE II
Government Health Care Spending as a
Percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2050
Note: Numbers rounded.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Laurence Kotlikoff and Christian Hagist,
“Who’s Going Broke?” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working
Paper No. 11833, December 2005, p. 26.
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10
The National Center for Policy Analysis
FIGURE III
Reasons for the Growth of Government Health Care Spending
(2002-2050)
Australia
Norway
Due to Aging
Due to Benefit Expansion
Austria
Spain
Canada
Sweden
Germany
Japan
Note: Numbers rounded.
United Kingdom
United States
Source: Table A-III.