Potential Climate Change
Impacts upon the Northeast
Prof. Bruce Anderson, Boston University
October 22, 2009
http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org
New England Climate Impacts
Assessment: Collaborators
A collaboration between UCS
and > 50 independent experts
from institutions such as:
National Center for
Atmospheric Research
Texas Tech University
University of Illinois –
Urbana-Champaign
University of Waterloo,
Canada
U.S. Department of
Agriculture
Cornell
University
Colby
College
University of
Bigelow Laboratory for
Southern Maine
Ocean Sciences
Vermont Center
Harvard University,
for EcoStudies
University of
New Hampshire Boston University,
Tufts University,
University of
Wellesley College,
Massachusetts
& UMass-Boston
Wesleyan
University
Princeton
University
Columbia
University &
CUNY
Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution and Marine
Biological Laboratory
Natl. Marine Fisheries Service
Historic Climate Change
Annual temperatures across
the Northeast have warmed
almost 2ºF since 1970
Winters have been warming
fastest, at 1.3ºF per decade
since 1970
Winter snowpack and lake ice
are decreasing
Extreme heat in summer is
becoming more frequent
Plants are flowering earlier in
the spring
“Hardiness” zones have moved
north
Historic Climate Change
“Could fall blaze turn to blahs?” - Albany Times Union, 10/9/09
“Invasives have state 'army' on high alert” - Maine Today,
7/19/09
“Climate Change May Muddy Better-Than-Bottled New York Tap
Water” - Bloomberg, 7/7/08
“Unwelcome Warmth - Climate Change Sends A Chill Through
Business In Northern New England” - Harford Courant - 3/5/07
“Warm Winters Upset Rhythms of Maple Sugar” - NY Times,
3/3/07
“Herring health on fishermen's plate” - Bangor Daily News,
2/20/07
Future Emissions and
Concentrations of Atmospheric CO2
Emissions
“Business as
Usual”: 900ppm
Concentrations
Stabilization of CO2
by 2100: 550ppm
Projecting global climate change
Projecting Northeast climate change
12
o
temperature change ( F)
Rising Northeast Temperatures
10
8
6
Higher: 6.5-12.5oF
observations
higher emissions
lower emissions
Lower: 3.5-6.5oF
4
2
The result of today’s
emissions choices
0
Unavoidable warming
(yesterday’s choices)
-2
-4
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
“Migrating” Climates
(Summer Heat Index)
Heatwaves & Extreme Temperature
1 in every 2-3 days
in summer
1 in every 6-7 days
in summer
Intensity of Extreme Precipitation
Low Emissions
High Emissions
Extreme Precipitation
Oct., 2005 - “The
Cold River at the
gage peaked at 23.7
feet, more than
doubling the
previously recorded
maximum.”
Occurrence of Droughts
Regions with 30+ Days Snowcover
Winter Recreation: Skiing
AP Photo/Charles Krupa
Future 100-Year Flood Levels
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices .org/ne/ )
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices .org/ne/ )
Human Health
Human Health
Changes in Hemlock Woolly Adelgid
WDNR/Linda Williams
Jerry and Marcy Monkman
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Fisheries
Role of Uncertainty
Key Considerations for Solutions
Some changes are now unavoidable, but the extent of change
and the effect of these changes depend greatly on emissions
choices we make today.
Higher emissions scenario is not a ceiling; lower scenario is
not a floor.
Reductions on the order of 80% below 2000 levels by 2050
(3% per year) can keep emissions below the lower scenario
described here.
Uncertainty in climate change projections does not suggest
the need for inaction—instead it suggests the need for more
robust action in the face of a highly uncertain future.
For More Information
For more information on the NECIA visit:
http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org
For more information and interactive features:
http://www.climatechoices.org
Multi-millennial CO2 Variations
1000
Projected (2100)
IPCC 2001 - A1FI
carbon dioxide (ppmv)
800
Projected (2100)
IPCC 2001 - B1
600
400
Vostok Ice Core
Current (2005)
Mauna Loa
200
400,000
300,000
200,000
Years Before 2100 AD
100,000
0
Multi-millennial CO2 Variations
1000
Projected (2100)
IPCC 2001 - A1FI
carbon dioxide (ppmv)
800
Projected (2100)
IPCC 2001 - B1
600
80% Option
400
Vostok Ice Core
Current (2005)
Mauna Loa
200
400,000
300,000
200,000
Years Before 2100 AD
100,000
0
Increasing temperature
Role of Uncertainty
Mitigating Future Climate Change
Renewable energy
Efficiency and conservation
Low carbon fuels
Carbon capture
Mitigating Future Climate Change
Reducing Heat-Trapping Emissions:
Policy Actions
• Transportation: encourage sales of lowemissions vehicles; promote alternative-fuel policies;
reduce average miles driven
• Electric power: promote energy
efficiency to offset demand; implement
RGGI; strengthen RES
• Buildings: improve energy codes; provide tax
incentives to encourage emissions reductions
• Industry: use renewable energy; increase
production efficiency
Reducing Heat-Trapping Emissions:
Individual Actions
• Be carbon conscious.
• Drive change.
• Upgrade to Energy Star.
• Choose clean power.
• Unplug an underutilized freezer or refrigerator.
• Get a home energy audit.
• Lightbulbs matter.
• Buy good wood.
• Let policy makers know you are concerned about
global warming
Extreme Heat
Winter Recreation: Snowmobiling
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see:www.climatechoices .org/ne/ )
Invasive Species
Sea-level Rise
Snowcover (Days per Month)