Legal News Line, DC
02-14-07
Reality trumps state loyalty in Iowa AG's endorsement
by Rob Luke
Tom Miller
DES MOINES -- Tom Miller thinks he knows a presidential winner when he sees
one. And apparently it isn't fellow-Iowan Tom Vilsack.
State political observers say the long-time Iowa attorney general made a
pragmatic decision in supporting Illinois' U.S. Senator Barack Obama over the
local favorite and former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack for the 2008 Democratic
presidential nomination.
Miller and veteran Iowa Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald officially announced their
endorsements of Obama last Sunday at a rally in Ames, Iowa.
Miller, recently re-elected unopposed to his seventh term as attorney general, is
likely getting behind the candidate he believes is most likely to win, says Steffen
Schmidt, professor of political science at Iowa State University in Ames.
He said Iowa Democrats like and respect Tom Vilsack as "a smart guy" but have
clearly decided that this time round "there are superstars like Obama out there."
Schmidt says endorsements like those Obama received last weekend from Miller
and veteran Iowa state Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald matter because their political
longevity gives them added credibility with Iowa voters. The Iowa caucuses in
early 2008 will be the nation's first electoral test of presidential candidates.
"Both of these guys are heavy hitters and have the same standing as [institutions
like] the Supreme Court," said Schmidt, who also hosts a weekly call-in political
radio show.
"Their endorsement is important because they're seen as perennials," he said.
Although Miller's endorsement is unlikely to directly sway many caucus voters, it
will likely affect what Schmidt calls "cue-taking." He says voters often use
respected people's opinions as a cue to start thinking more about their
arguments.
Other observers agree that endorsements are unlikely to carry Obama to victory
in the caucuses.
"In a very crowded field like this one endorsements such as Miller's might matter
on the margins," said Peverill Squire, professor of political science at the
University of Iowa.
Nonetheless, Squire believes an endorsement from Miller, whom he describes as
"a fixture in Iowa politics," provides some boost to the freshman Illinois senator.
"Clearly, it is a plus for Obama's campaign in that it signals that serious and
sober politicians in the state are taking his chances seriously," said Squire, who
also co-edits Legislative Studies Quarterly.
Choosing to endorse Obama over the more-favored Hillary Clinton may also
indicate a healthy dose of electoral pragmatism on Miller's part. Schmidt says a
solid majority of callers to his radio show on Hilary Clinton's candidacy have
declared her "unelectable."
But Miller's endorsement does not look good for former Iowa governor Tom
Vilsack, who has been campaigning for the presidency since late last year.
"It's another sign that former governor Vilsack does not enjoy a home field
advantage in the caucuses," Squire noted.
In ditching Vilsack, Schmidt points out, Iowa Democrats are trying to avoid the
same problem they faced when U.S. Senator Tom Harkin ran for president in the
1980s.
"They don't want Vilsack to become Iowa's 'favorite son' and dim the influence of
the caucuses," he said.
Nonetheless, Schmidt said Vilsack might make "a pretty good running mate" for
the eventual Democratic nominee given his experience as the two-term governor
of a deeply divided state.