Slide set 23 Stat 330 (Spring 2015) Last update: March 22, 2015 Stat 330 (Spring 2015): slide set 23 The M/M/c queue Again, X(t) the number of individuals in the queueing system can be modeled as a birth & death process. The transition state diagram for the X(t) is: Clearly, the critical thing here in terms of whether or not a steady state exists is whether or not λ/(cµ) < 1. Let a = λ/µ and ρ = a/c = λ/(cµ). The balance equations for steady state are: 1 Stat 330 (Spring 2015): slide set 23 The M/M/c queue: balance equations p1 p2 p3 ... pc c = ap0 a2 = 2·1 p0 3 = a3! p0 = pc+1 = ρ · ac! p0 ... c pn = ρn−c · ac! p0 for n ≥ c. ac c! p0 In order to get an expression for p0, we use the condition, that the overall sum of probabilities must be 1. This gives: 1= ∞ X k=0 pk = p0 c−1 X k=0 ∞ cX ak a + k! c! k=c ! ρk−c c−1 k X a ac 1 = p0 + . k! c! 1 − ρ k=0 | {z } =:S 2 Stat 330 (Spring 2015): slide set 23 This system has a steady state, if ρ < 1; in that case, p0 = S −1. The other probabilities pn are given as: ( pn = an n! p0 an p c!cn−c 0 for 0 ≤ n ≤ c − 1 for n ≥ c A key descriptor for the system is the probability that an entering customer must queue for service - this is equal to the probability that all servers are busy. The formula for this probability is known as Erlang’s C formula or Erlang’s delay formula and written as C(c, a). 3 Stat 330 (Spring 2015): slide set 23 The M/M/c queue: Erlang’s C Formula Obviously, in a M/M/c queue, an entering individual must queue for service exactly when c or more individuals are already in the system. lim P (X(t) ≥ c) = C(c, a) = t→∞ ∞ X pk = 1 − k=c = p0 1 − p0 c−1 X k=0 c−1 X pk = k=0 ak k! ! = ac = p0 . c!(1 − ρ) 4 Stat 330 (Spring 2015): slide set 23 The M/M/c queue: properties The steady state expected number of individuals in the queue Lq is Lq = ∞ X k=c (k − c)pk = ∞ X k=c ak (k − c) k−c p0 = c!c ∞ ac ρ ac X k = p0 kρ = p0 c! c! (1 − ρ)2 k=1 | {z } P k )0 ρ( ∞ ρ k=1 ρ = C(c, a). 1−ρ 5 Stat 330 (Spring 2015): slide set 23 By Little’s Law, the expected waiting time in the queue Wq is Wq = Lq /λ = ρ 1 1 · C(c, a) = C(c, a). λ 1−ρ cµ(1 − ρ) Thus the expected overall time in system is then 1 W = Wq + W s = Wq + , µ and the expected overall number of individuals in the system is on average L=W ·λ=a+ ρ C(c, a). 1−ρ 6 Stat 330 (Spring 2015): slide set 23 Example Bank: A bank has three tellers. Customers arrive at a rate of 1 per minute and stay in a single queue. Each teller needs on average 2 min to deal with a customer. What are the specifications of this queue? For this queue, λ = 1, µ = 0.5, c = 3, a = λ µ = 2, and ρ = a c = 2/3 The probability that no customer is in the bank then is −1 −1 P c 3 k c−1 a a 1 4 2 1 1 + = 1 + 2 + + · = p0 = k=0 k! c! 1−ρ 2 3! 1−ρ 9. c ρ Thus expected length of the queue is Lq = p0 · ac! · (1−ρ) 2 = 8/9 Calculate the expected waiting time in the queue: Wq = Lq /λ = 8/9 min. Expected service time is Ws = distribution. 1 µ = 2 minutes using the service time This gives the total waiting time as W = Ws + Wq = 26/9 min. Hence the expected number of people in the bank is L = W λ = 26/9 7