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+0@-
+
-&
&
3
6%
/
&
(
'
/
A
+
!
+0@-
%
8
/
!
M
! +#0-(
-&
*
9
(
61
/
+##-(
Figure 1 – The Effect of the Importance of Reference Norms
on Inflation Persistence λ1
1
1
0.8
0.6
1
for
0.2
1
for
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Note: The figure reports the degree of inflation persistence λ1 as the importance of reference norms
increases from µ A = µ B = µ = 0 to µ = 1 for =0.2 and =0.3.
Table 1 – The Effect of Different Reference Norms
and Asymmetries in Reference Norms on Inflation Persistence λ1
No
Reference Norms
Symmetric
Reference Norms
µ =0
Asymmetric
Reference Norms
µ = 0 .5
A. Backward-Looking External Norms
s A =1 2
=0.2
=0.3
µA = µB =0
µ A = µ B = 0.5
µ A = 0, µ B = 1
0.146
0.085
0.702
0.602
0.5
0.368
B. Standard of Living Norms
s A =1 2
=0.2
=0.3
µA = µB =0
µ A = µ B = 0.5
µ A = 0, µ B = 1
0.146
0.085
0.539
0.424
0.5
0.368
C. Forward-Looking External Norms
s A =1 2
µA = µB =0
µ A = µ B = 0.5
µ A = 0, µ B = 1
=0.2
0.146
0.348
0.268
=0.3
0.085
0.27
0.191
Note: The numbers report the degree of persistence λ1 for two levels of the real rigidity ( ) and the
importance of reference norms in the two sectors ( µ A and µ B ). The three reference norms are
explained in the text.
Table 2 – Summary Statistics on Individual Collective Wage Agreements in Austria, 1980-2006
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total
Growth Rate of Wages
Mean
Std. Dev.
0.0596
0.0207
0.0767
0.0209
0.0647
0.0114
0.0463
0.0098
0.0445
0.0095
0.0530
0.0059
0.0449
0.0111
0.0306
0.0052
0.0281
0.0096
0.0377
0.0146
0.0620
0.0160
0.0665
0.0095
0.0536
0.0089
0.0440
0.0166
0.0324
0.0078
0.0329
0.0081
0.0200
0.0127
0.0178
0.0122
0.0225
0.0066
0.0238
0.0067
0.0198
0.0071
0.0298
0.0356
0.0217
0.0082
0.0220
0.0064
0.0199
0.0055
0.0244
0.0051
0.0250
0.0045
0.0379
0.0212
Winter
44%
45%
47%
43%
43%
46%
47%
48%
24%
49%
48%
49%
49%
49%
51%
49%
33%
26%
47%
47%
48%
50%
49%
50%
52%
51%
53%
46%
Quarter of New Wage Agreements
Spring
Summer
Fall
No Contract
24%
13%
17%
2%
24%
12%
16%
3%
24%
11%
16%
2%
28%
12%
16%
1%
30%
9%
16%
2%
29%
8%
17%
0%
28%
8%
13%
4%
30%
8%
13%
1%
31%
32%
12%
1%
30%
6%
14%
1%
31%
7%
14%
0%
31%
7%
13%
0%
31%
7%
13%
0%
26%
7%
17%
1%
28%
7%
13%
1%
30%
6%
12%
3%
28%
4%
14%
21%
30%
6%
14%
24%
31%
7%
15%
0%
30%
4%
19%
0%
28%
4%
17%
3%
29%
4%
16%
1%
31%
4%
13%
3%
33%
4%
11%
2%
32%
5%
9%
2%
33%
6%
10%
0%
32%
5%
9%
1%
29%
9%
13%
3%
Length of New Agreements (in months)
12
<12
13-24
>24
76%
3%
19%
2%
87%
1%
9%
3%
58%
4%
36%
2%
60%
26%
13%
1%
89%
1%
8%
2%
89%
1%
10%
0%
87%
2%
7%
4%
65%
2%
32%
1%
64%
26%
9%
1%
95%
0%
4%
1%
93%
3%
4%
0%
98%
1%
1%
0%
94%
0%
6%
0%
90%
6%
3%
1%
92%
2%
5%
1%
66%
4%
7%
23%
62%
2%
14%
22%
62%
5%
9%
24%
85%
6%
9%
0%
94%
3%
3%
0%
93%
2%
2%
3%
90%
2%
7%
1%
91%
2%
4%
3%
94%
0%
4%
2%
93%
1%
4%
2%
94%
3%
2%
1%
–
–
–
–
80%
4%
9%
7%
Note: The numbers in the table refer to the sample of 100 wage-setting units comprising 92% of the total labor force. The numbers are unweighted. The quarters are defined as
follows: Winter (Jan., Feb., Mar.), Spring (Apr., May, Jun.), Summer (Jul., Aug. Sep.), Fall (Oct., Nov., Dec.). The length of new agreements refers to the year when they start.
Table 3 – Determinants of Collective Wage Agreements (Benchmark Estimations)
Dependent Variable: growth rate of unit-specific wage rates ( ∆wti )
External Norm
Leadership Norm
Inflation (forecast)
GDP growth (forecast)
Change in unemployment rate
(forecast)
Time Dummies
Constant
Observations
Number of groups
Hausman-Statistics
H0: Random effects model
H1: Fixed effects model
Probability value of H0
Adjusted R 2
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
0.540***
(0.026)
–
0.564***
(0.026)
–
0.647***
(0.024)
–
0.623***
(0.025)
–
0.566***
(0.035)
0.333***
(0.035)
–
0.725***
(0.050)
0.312***
(0.037)
–
0.554***
(0.033)
0.626***
(0.049)
-1.279***
(0.10)
NO
-0.000579
(0.00055)
2621
100
7.005
-1.191***
(0.11)
YES
-0.00217
(0.0026)
2621
100
6.592
0.928
0.68
0.527
0.68
NO
YES
-0.00569*** -0.0144***
(0.00086)
(0.0025)
2621
2621
100
100
-0.656
-1.733
0.000
0.66
0.000
0.66
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
0.571***
(0.017)
0.473***
(0.026)
0.0952***
(0.032)
–
0.554***
(0.018)
0.552***
(0.043)
0.0916***
(0.033)
–
0.571***
(0.016)
0.501***
(0.027)
–
0.544***
(0.017)
0.547***
(0.044)
–
-0.378***
(0.10)
NO
0.000176
(0.00052)
2621
100
-375.775
-0.438***
(0.10)
YES
-0.00475*
(0.0026)
2621
100
-14.547
0.000
0.70
0.000
0.70
–
–
NO
YES
-0.00164** -0.00891***
(0.00076)
(0.0025)
2621
2621
100
100
-281.1
-108.041
0.000
0.70
0.000
0.70
Note: The tables contain the result of fixed effects panel estimations of the determinants of unit-specific collective wage agreements
–
–
∆wti in Austria, where i=1, 2, …, 100 and
t=1980, 1981, …, 2006. The reference norms are either given by the external norm (columns (1) to (4)) or the leadership norm (columns (5) to (8)). The time dummies in columns
(2), (4), (6) and (8) are defined as five year dummies (i.e. for 1980-1984, 1985-1989, etc.). The bottom line reports the statistics of a Hausman test where the null hypothesis is a
random effects model. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***, ** and * denote statistical significance at the 1, 5 and 10 % level, respectively.
Table 4 – Comparison of Different Reference Norms with J-Tests
t-statistic on the fitted values from a regression including
In regression including: External Norm Leadership Norm Habit Norm Aggregate Wage Norm
–
4.37
(0.000)
17.705*
(0.000)
12.489*
(0.000)
Leadership Norm
14.695*
(0.000)
–
23.721*
(0.000)
20.48*
(0.000)
Habit Norm
0.002
(0.998)
1.79
(0.073)
–
0.511
(0.61)
Aggregate Wage Norm
0.832
(0.405)
4.076
(0.000)
12.259*
(0.000)
–
External Norm
Note: The values in the table are based on an approach where the fitted values of a benchmark regression with the
respective reference norm in the column are added to a regression that includes the reference norm in the respective row.
The numbers reported are the t-statistic of these fitted values while p-values are shown in parentheses. A “*” indicates that
the t-statistic in one pair of comparisons is higher than in the case where the role of the two reference norms is reversed.
Table 5 – Nested Comparison of Different Reference Norms
Dependent Variable: growth rate of unit-specific wage rates ( ∆wti )
(1)
External Norm
Leadership Norm
Habit Norm
Aggregate Wage Norm
Inflation (forecast)
Change in unemployment rate
(forecast)
Time Dummies
Constant
(2)
(3)
(4)
0.177*** 0.623*** 0.661***
(0.040)
(0.035) (0.053)
0.450***
0.522***
(0.031)
(0.022)
-0.00007
0.0533*
(0.028)
(0.030)
-0.0485
(0.058)
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
(5)
0.488***
(0.024)
(6)
0.141***
(0.035)
YES
YES
0.0163
(0.032)
0.576***
(0.047)
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
Note: The table contains the results if two reference norms are included in pairs into the benchmark estimation.
Table 6 – Robustness Tests for the Benchmark Estimation (leadership reference norms)
Dependent Variable: growth rate of unit-specific wage rates ( ∆wti )
Estimation Method
Leadership Norm
Inflation (forecast)
Change in unemployment rate
(forecast)
Forecast error (inflation)
Forecast error ( u)
Lagged Inflation
Length of Contract
Change in sectoral
unemployment rate (lagged)
Level of unemployment rate
(forecast)
Time Dummies
Constant
Observations
Number of rank86
R-squared
Fixed
effects
Benchmark
Fixed
effects
<1993
Fixed
effects
>=1993
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
effects
effects
effects
effects
effects
Forecast
Past
Sectoral
Contract Level of
Errors
Inflation Unemploy. Length Unemploy.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
0.544*** 0.573*** 0.492*** 0.509*** 0.507*** 0.544*** 0.552*** 0.501***
(0.017)
(0.019)
(0.072)
(0.027)
(0.021)
(0.017)
(0.018)
(0.022)
0.547*** 0.549*** 0.316*** 0.476*** 0.473*** 0.546*** 0.542*** 0.456***
(0.044)
(0.050)
(0.075)
(0.049)
(0.043)
(0.044)
(0.043)
(0.055)
-0.438*** -0.414*** -0.349** -0.637*** -0.450*** -0.429*** -0.426***
(0.10)
(0.099)
(0.17)
(0.100)
(0.10)
(0.098)
(0.100)
0.222***
(0.045)
0.294***
(0.084)
0.183***
(0.043)
2E-07***
1.2E-08
-0.0127
(0.038)
-0.280***
(0.087)
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
2621
1283
1338
2619
2621
2621
2522
2621
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.70
0.71
0.25
0.71
0.71
0.70
0.70
0.71
Random
Fixed Fixed effects
coeff.s
effects
RC method Only priv. Only repres.
sector
units.
(9)
(10)
(11)
0.574*** 0.552*** 0.584***
(0.025)
(0.020)
(0.025)
0.469*** 0.565*** 0.504***
(0.047)
(0.050)
(0.063)
-0.268** -0.481*** -0.443***
(0.11)
(0.12)
(0.16)
YES
YES
2621
100
.
YES
YES
2090
79
0.69
YES
YES
1446
55
0.65
Note: The columns contain various robustness tests to the benchmark estimation with leadership reference norms in column (8) of Table 3, here repeated in column (1). All estimations
include time dummies, a constant term and they are based on fixed effects models except the one in column (9) that uses a random coefficients model.
Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***, ** and * denote statistical significance at the 1, 5 and 10 % level, respectively.
Figure 2 – The Reaction of Different Wage-Setting Units
in a Random Coefficients Model
External Reference Norm
Leadership Reference Norm
Coefficients for Reference Norm
.2
.2
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
.8
1
1
Coefficients for Reference Norm
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Coefficients for Inflation
0
0
.5
.5
1
1
1.5
Coefficients for Inflation
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nov
Oct
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Coefficients for Change in Unemployment Rate
-3
-1.5
-1
-2
-.5
-1
0
.5
0
Coefficients for Change in Unemployment Rate
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Note: The graphs report the coefficients for the 100 individual wage-setting units when the benchmark equation
(including time dummies) is estimated with a random coefficients model. For the leadership norm (right column) the
average result of the RC estimation is reported in column (9) of Table 6. For the external norm (left column) the
coefficients for the reference norm, for inflation and the change in the unemployment rate are 0.660, 0.575 and -1.134,
respectively (all significant at the 1% level). The individual coefficients are ordered according to the typical (median)
month in which each wage-setting unit has concluded its wage agreements.