Using technology to build probabilistic simulation models
NCSM 2016, Oakland, CA
Ingrid Ristroph and Kathi Cook
Charles A. Dana Center, The University of Texas at Austin
7.SP.8c
S-IC.2
Investigate chance processes and
develop, use, and evaluate probability
models.
Understand and evaluate random
processes underlying statistical
experiments
8. Find probabilities of compound events
using organized lists, tables, tree
diagrams, and simulation.
2. Decide if a specified model is consistent
with results from a given data-generating
process, e.g., using simulation. For
example, a model says a spinning coin
falls heads up with probability 0.5. Would a
result of 5 tails in a row cause you to
question the model?
C. Design and use a simulation to
generate frequencies for compound
events. For example, use random digits
as a simulation tool to approximate the
answer to the question: If 40% of donors
have type A blood, what is the
probability that it will take at least 4
donors to find one with type A blood?
S-IC.4
S-IC.5
Make inferences and justify
conclusions from sample surveys,
experiments, and observational studies
Make inferences and justify
conclusions from sample surveys,
experiments, and observational studies
4. Use data from a sample survey to
estimate a population mean or proportion;
develop a margin of error through the use
of simulation models for random sampling.
5. Use data from a randomized
experiment to compare two treatments;
use simulations to decide if differences
between parameters are significant.
Problem statement 1: See “For example” statement in 7.SP.8c.
Problem statement 2 (Acne medication study from Algebra II): Based on the
researcher’s findings, 20% of the ten subjects in Group 1 showed improvement in
acne while 80% of the ten subjects in Group 2 showed improvement. Is this
difference significant enough to conclude with little doubt that the acne
medication is effective? Page 1 of 2
Using technology to build probabilistic simulation models
NCSM 2016, Oakland, CA
Ingrid Ristroph and Kathi Cook, Charles A. Dana Center, The University of Texas at Austin
Commands used to build a simulation in a spreadsheet Problem Statement 1:
https://goo.gl/gS3Yfn
=RANDBETWEEN(0,9)
=OR(C1<4, C2<4, C3<4)
=COUNTIF(B1:B200, TRUE)
Page 2 of 2