What is driving the growth in
China’s emissions?
Glen Peters
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)
glen.peters@cicero.uio.no
twitter.com/Peters_Glen
Fossil and Cement Emissions
Global fossil and cement emissions: 9.5±0.5PgC in 2011, 54% over 1990
Projection for 2012: 9.7±0.5PgC, 58% over 1990
Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
Fossil and Cement Emissions Growth 2011
Emissions growth in 2011 was dominated by China
China was responsible for 80% of the global emissions growth in 2011
For comparison, Germany emitted a total of 0.2PgC in 2011
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)
Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions
China (28%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%)
The growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the
1990-2011 cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland (5%)
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)
World average per capita emissions in 2011 were 1.4tC/p
China (1.8tC/p), United States (4.7tC/p), EU27 (2.0tC/p), India (0.5tC/p)
Chinese per capita emissions are almost equal to the EU27, and 36% higher than the global average
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
WHAT IS THE UNCERTAINTY?
The rural-urban divide, air pollution and climate policy
Oslo, 7-8/05/2013
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Unharmonised emissions
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Harmonised emissions
Guan Provincial and
Zhao are upper bounds
EIA has filled the dip?
Guan National is a
lower bound
The rural-urban divide, air pollution and climate policy
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Harmonised emissions
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Is the 2000 dip realistic?
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Is the 2000 dip realistic?
Independent Approach: GDP
does not show drop around 2000
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Is the 2000 dip realistic?
• 2000 dip likely unrealistic
• Satellite measurements of co-emitted
species find no dip
• GDP shows no dip
• Explanation is restructuring in the coal
sector and “closing” of small mines
• Small mines may have kept operating
The rural-urban divide, air pollution and climate policy
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Uncertainty Summary
• Important for consistent comparisons
• Based on model comparisons
• CO2 uncertainty is 5% for 1σ
• Up to 7% for unhamonised comparisons
• Literature
• Zhao et al (detailed MC): ~5% for 1σ
• Most other literature 10% or higher
• Uncertainty in non-CO2 much higher
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DRIVERS OF CHANGE
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Increase in income
(GDP) partially offset
by gains in efficiency
improvements
What drives GDP?
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Urbanisation Important
The lowest income
quintile in urban areas
is about the same as
the highest income
quintile in rural areas.
Hypothesis:
Urbanisation comes
with increased income
and this increases
emissions
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Share of CO2 exported
Causes of growth
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Exports and Imports (2007)
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Key Findings (2004):
• 6.2 GtCO2 (23%) embodied in trade
• Annex B Consumption 1.6 GtCO2 higher than Production (12%)
• OECD Consumption 2.1 GtCO2 higher than Production (16%)
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• The increase in net
import into Annex B
countries 1990-2008
was five times greater
than the achieved
emission reduction
• Equivalent to a 400%
“carbon leakage” rate
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• Up to 30% of Chinese emissions
embodied in exports
• Recent studies suggest this is too high
• Need to model processing trade separately
• Some studies suggest exported emissions
are half the size
• Independent studies required for
confirmation
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“Hot Spots”
Supply chain of clothing consumed in the UK
Consumer
Producers (supply chain)
UK
17887
China WAP
277 / 6835
China TEX
172 / 4414
China TEX China ELY China CRP China WOL
69 / 1765 697 / 847 67 / 375 287 / 339
1
5
UK WAP
335 / 3526
3
China ELY China LEA UK TEX
433 / 526 3 / 304
77 / 498
2
India WAP
27 / 1077
UK OTP UK ELY India TEX India CRP India TRD
207 / 397 321 / 375 20 / 382 41 / 158 25 / 106
4
UK ELY
80 / 93
Most emissions occur in
electricity production in China
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Who gets the emissions?
Who gets the income?
Wearing Apparel
CHN
IND
GBR
MAR
FRA
USA
RUS
DEU
TUR
ITA
NOR
BGD
DNK
SWE
RoEU27
ROW
GBR
FRA
NOR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
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Who gets the emissions?
Who gets the income?
Wearing Apparel
Agriculture
Mining
Food
EI Mfg
NonEI Mfg
Transport
Services
Electricity
GBR
FRA
NOR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
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Drivers of Change
• 1990-2005: Exports
• 50% of the growth in many years
• 2005-Current: Capital investments
• 30+% of growth in most years
• 70% of growth since 2005
• Current-Future:
• A potential shift to consumption?
• May have significant implications for CO2
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FUTURE EMISSIONS
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IEA World Energy Outlook
• 2000: Chinese emissions to be 18% of
global total in 2020
• Already over 25% in 2011
• 2002: [In 2030] “Chinese emissions
remain well below those of the USA”
• 2006: China to pass US before 2010
• 2007: China had passed US already
• Future emissions are hard!
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Business as Usual (RCP8.5)
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2ºC pathway (RCP2.6)
Radical mitigation
required in ASIA (China)
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Future Emissions
• ERI suggests peak in emissions by 2025
• Current policies examples
•
•
•
•
Lower 2005 CO2/GDP by 40-45% by 2020
Renewables: 15% by 2020
Increase 2005 forest cover by 40Mha by 2020
Restrict coal to 3.9 billion tonnes by 2015
• WRI: About 350 coal plants in planning
• Significant inertia in the system
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Emission intensity
Based on
• Median harmonised emission estimate
• China constant price GDP (2005 RMB)
• Policy is following Business As Usual (BAU)
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Restrict coal consumption
• 12th Five Year Plan for its coal industry
• Curb coal production and consumption at
around 3.9 billion tons by 2015
• Ambiguous what this means
• Very close to BAU
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22/china-to-restrict-coal-demand-output-to-3-9-billion-tons.html
http://thediplomat.com/china-power/china%E2%80%99s-problematic-coal-plan/
http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2013/02/06/china-releases-12th-five-year-plan-for-energy-development.html
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FUTURE DIRECTIONS
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Future Directions
• Understanding uncertainty in Chinese
statistics (monetary and emissions)
• Quantifying drivers of change
• Understanding future emission pathways
• Quantification of policy options
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Thank you
glen.peters@cicero.uio.no
twitter.com/Peters_Glen
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“Fairness” and “Equity”
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